EPTTL Mafia XX
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Zona
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Zona
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If BM is mafia - keeping him alive will probably hurt the mafia a lot in the long run, so there's the benefit there. If BM is town - it's a waste of a lynch to get rid of him, as otherwise we could have gained more information somewhere else. The day 1 lynch needs to be a natural vote, not based on factors external to this particular game, so that these votes later can be scrutinized for possible mafia activity. | ||
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I skipped over that part - this is pretty major change. It's a huge disincentive for mafia to run for the role...unless there are no detectives at all in this game and the whole detective thing is just a red herring. | ||
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On March 11 2010 12:26 citi.zen wrote: Might as well roleclaim at this point so we can confirm you one way or another. Or not. You've said too much already and are a mafia target anyway. If you are DT I do not want you dead. Considering his sentence includes "the other DT"...it seems like he's claiming DT. The thing is - we probably only have one DT. | ||
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Zona
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I do agree that a green mayor is a lot less powerful than a blue one - but it's still better than a red. But it's easier to catch a fake-blue mayor in a lie than a fake-green one, so I'd actually be more wary of a green mayor than a blue one if we ever find out the DT results on a check on them. | ||
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On March 11 2010 11:42 Incognito wrote: Wait a second...we can't do the medics protecting bodyguards scenario. If a mafia-aligned bus driver gets in contact with the mafia, they just switch the bodyguard with a random player and hit random player. The BG dies. *Back to the drawing board. On this note, if the bus driver does manage to cooperate with the mafia, they gain 2 unblockable kills, in essence. So the town shouldn't rely on medics as much as a usual game. | ||
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Zona
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This vivi57 DT claim on Bloodycobbler's behalf is also unsettling - what does bloodycobbler have to say about this? Maybe if the claim was by PM he wanted to gain supporters without going totally public with his claim? perhaps he want his claim to come under public scrutiny? why would you, vivi57, share this tidbit when bloodycobbler clearly wasn't going public on his own with his claim? also - did his PM with his claim come before or after L heavily implied he himself was a DT? still, these are good developments. we've got people making statements that can eventually be checked to see who's lying. especially statements involving 2 people who will likely be pretty active players. nemY - you can't abstain in this game. so no fence sitting for you - make a real vote so that your actions can be examined later on. | ||
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On March 11 2010 20:41 Zona wrote: Okay - is L backpedaling from his super heavy hinting that he's the DT? I don't like this. If you get elected and say "surprise, I'm not the DT" - I'll push for your lynch day 2. This vivi57 DT claim on Bloodycobbler's behalf is also unsettling - what does bloodycobbler have to say about this? Maybe if the claim was by PM he wanted to gain supporters without going totally public with his claim? perhaps he didn't want his claim to come under public scrutiny? why would you, vivi57, share this tidbit when bloodycobbler clearly wasn't going public on his own with his claim? also - did his PM with his claim come before or after L heavily implied he himself was a DT? still, these are good developments. we've got people making statements that can eventually be checked to see who's lying. especially statements involving 2 people who will likely be pretty active players. nemY - you can't abstain in this game. so no fence sitting for you - make a real vote so that your actions can be examined later on. fixed a missing word that totally changed the meaning of that sentence | ||
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On March 12 2010 03:39 BloodyC0bbler wrote: The original reason for me claiming to three people was to garner votes for my campaign. Basically after elections if I didn't get in, and say 1 of those three refused to vote for me, chances are I would find a tell in their posts leading to one dead mafia anyway. I person not voting for you after your claim of DT doesn't necessarily mean they're mafia. Maybe they don't just trust you. | ||
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Zona
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On March 12 2010 03:59 Zona wrote: I person not voting for you after your claim of DT doesn't necessarily mean they're mafia. Maybe they don't just trust you. Ugh. Read that as: Maybe they just don't trust you. | ||
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On the other hand, no matter how strange the beginning to Bloodycobbler's claim was, he is now being entirely clear on his claim on being the DT, not leading us around in circles like you are doing. Of course stating clearly that one is the DT doesn't mean that the likelihood of him being the DT is higher, but we can measure his claim against his behavior in the future and rein him in if we figure out that he's not the DT. You, on the other hand, look like you want to get elected on your hint of being the DT which you seem to be preparing to retract, and if you are eventually elected and then claim to not be the DT, the rest of us have a lot less to work with to hold you to account. | ||
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Well to make this post useful: Since there's only 3 people running serious campaigns, and the mafia is likely to have organized a campaign for one of their own - which one (or more) of the current candidates does everyone think is a bit fishy? | ||
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On March 13 2010 09:09 Incognito wrote: Why are you dictating a list for the DT's and Medics? Do you have any reasons for the people you've chosen?DT Check List: CynanMachae ~OpZ~ Sidesprang Medic Prot List: Incognito Bodyguard A Bodyguard B Let the DTs and medics choose for themselves. If you post a public list, and the DTs and medics actually follow it, the mafia bus driver can effectively screw with the town without even needing to find his/her fellow mafia members in order to coordinate. I think these lists are not a helpful idea for the town. It also irks me that you've declared your idea to be final without thinking through the differences in the mechanics in this game. Or perhaps you have, but decided to hold such things back and post the flawed argument nonetheless. On March 13 2010 09:11 Incognito wrote: Yuck.2. Please refrain from deviating from this list unless you have VERY good reasons. Also, what the heck is this: On March 13 2010 03:53 Incognito wrote: Why are you simply naming the other reputable players in the game? "Good enough to be mafia"? How does being "good" have any relation to their chance of being mafia in a game with randomly distributed roles? And being quiet isn't automatically a mafia tell. Maybe they just want to try a different style this game.Day 1 lynch targets. Looks like the race is between BC and L. Who are you guys going to lynch? I have a feeling Malongo/Foolishness/Versatile are good targets. All been quiet, all good enough to be mafia since I think the three candidates are town. They just haven't done enough for me to see them as town-sided. What does everyone else think? Finally, did you put a serious effort into your election campaign beyond the initial posts? On March 13 2010 10:18 nemY wrote: nemY is absolutely right in this case. First of all the GF role only has a purpose if the DT is still around, so if you lose the DT, the GF is just another mafia member. Secondly, and I'm probably reiterating things that everyone knows, the power of the DT is not only to identify mafia but to privately or publicly confirm town members for various uses. (Private trust-worthy discussions, for example.) And so trading the DT for a single mafia member is not ideal.Absolutely not. DT for GF is not a good trade. With no clue analysis, unlimited role checks and only behavior analysis, DT is the most powerful role in the game. I'm surprised that this early in the game I'm making a post of this size focused on just one of our players, but those three statements are truly bad ideas that do not help the town. Whether they were things you truly overlooked while formulating your ideas or are intentional actions, the town will have to examine what plans you propose very carefully. P.S. Everyone who's using red and blue and whatever colors to strengthen your posts - please don't. The colors themselves do not contribute anything whatsoever to your reasoning, and instead (at least to me) shows that you don't have enough confidence in your arguments alone and have to rely on gimmicks to reinforce them. | ||
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On March 13 2010 11:05 Foolishness wrote: Have you thought through the implications of the mafia bus driver role? This is no ordinary mafia game where a public DT/medic list *might* be beneficial. Alone, and without public DT/medic lists, the mafia bus driver (who does not begin knowing his/her mafia teammates) cannot really use the power effectively. The power cannot be used to protect the mafia or whitewash for them, since the bus drvier doesn't know who they are. And if the bus driver has no idea who the DTs will check, doing a random switch has a very low chance of producing useful results for the mafia.It's called creating order for the town, and establishing some sort of plan. Bodyguards are going to be made public, and there's a good chance they're going to be under fire at some point this game. I'll give you that maybe his DT check list is opinionated, but honestly who else are you going to protect? Look at this way, now, maybe I'm biased from lack of experience but guess what? MEDICS SUCK BALLS! Have you ever seen a medic perform outstandingly during a game? I sure have never seen a medic block more than one hit during a game, and usually those hits are very obvious (like Scamp protecting jspazz in the other game). Letting the DT's and medics roam free is certainly not beneficial to the town. Why do you want the medic/DT's acting on their own accord? Problem with forming some sort of town circle eh? Don't like the town being organized? Oh! Perhaps you've adopted the Chezinu style of play where you just try to cause some chaos for shits and giggles. With a public DT list, however, the bus driver could elect to switch someone in that DT list with anyone else. Remember the bus driver doesn't even need for this 'someone else' to be mafia for this to be effective - even if a blue is switched with a green, or a green with a blue, then the DT can be discredited. Or, if people are considering the chance that the DT's check was bus driven, then doubt is thrown on the result of the check, making it a lot less useful. A DT choosing his or her own check instead can hopefully find a fellow town member, and then can form a private, trusted discussion group where all participants know that every idea is free from mafia interference, even if they aren't necessarily correct at first. I do agree that on the whole, the medic power isn't that effective. But once again, having a public medic list that the medics actually follow just allow the mafia to avoid wasting their hits and slowing down their killing of the town, when wasted hits give the town more days, more time to figure out who the mafia are. The medic becomes a ton more powerful if he/she survives to late game because there are a lot fewer people for the mafia and medic to choose from, and thus the chances of their choices coinciding are a lot higher. Addendum: + Show Spoiler + I can see how a DT list and medic list can be useful for a certain style of play, in which the town rallies around a FEW vocal, strong, central players, who are entirely confirmed by the DT and then subsequently protected by medics so that they can be the town leaders, recipients and proclaimers of DT checks, and the like, but the bus driver weakens this considerably. First, public DT-confirmation is a lot more shakey because of the bus driver. And like I mentioned in my main post, publicly declaring a DT check list is just inviting the bus driver to switch and muddle things up. Also, the style of play which involves a few central, strong, DT-confirmed + medic-protected individuals leading the town is not the only road to success. Town members forming private discussion groups with people they trust, as well as posting their thoughts in public can root out mafia and win that way, and this style is far less vulnerable to mafia manipulation, as there aren't just a few individuals who are dominating the town's decisions. The town's power is in its mass, why not play in a style that emphasizes that? In any case, the bus driver makes the other route far less attractive. | ||
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First, if the DT can get access to a protected mouthpiece to the town (by becoming a protected elected official, or perhaps somehow confirming that a certain elected official is town and proving him/herself to that elected official and then communicating through them), then it's smooth sailing. The DT uses his or her rolechecks to find mafia, then proclaims the finds to the town through the mouthpiece, allowing the town to lynch them. The DT's power contributes a ton to the town's success. However, if the DT cannot secure such a mouthpiece, it's better early on to find fellow town members, not mafia. If the DT finds a mafia member early in the game in this kind of situation, it often won't be easy to convince the rest of the town to lynch the target without revealing themselves. And revealing leaves the DT a prime target to be nightkilled: if a game is reasonably balanced, the mafia will be able to kill the revealed DT. However, if the DT finds fellow town members, they can form a private, trusted discussion circle which can become even more useful once the DT starts hunting mafia. Then the circle can work together to lynch the mafia - both in votes and in public arguments, rather than the DT working alone trying to convince the town. If a DT chooses who to check privately, the chances of his or her results being inaccurate are low. The godfather chance is low, and the bus driver chance is low, since the bus driver has no information. If the targets that the DT checks are public however, it's so much easier for the bus driver to make a difference. So yes, if the DT cannot get elected, I'm advocating that the DT chooses who the check on his or her own (and check for potential TOWN members, not mafia, at least in the early game). As the godfather can be chosen AFTER the election in this game, the mafia actually as a great chance of faking a 'town' DT result on an elected official so the 'confirm a protect mouthpiece' avenue is also not ideal. On March 13 2010 11:05 Foolishness wrote:Letting the DT's and medics roam free is certainly not beneficial to the town. You are using very skewed language here, rather than reasoning.Why do you want the medic/DT's acting on their own accord? Problem with forming some sort of town circle eh? Don't like the town being organized? Oh! Perhaps you've adopted the Chezinu style of play where you just try to cause some chaos for shits and giggles. "Letting the DT's and medics roam free" - as if they were wild animals or something? "Why do you want the medic/DT's acting on their own accord?" - as if town members thinking on their own is a bad thing? "Chezinu style of play where you just try to cause some chaos for shits and giggles." - this is a thoroughly unfair comparison. I am arguing against someone's plan and have laid out my reasons on why their proposals were flawed. I don't see how it's even remotely comparable to some other player's history of "cause some chaos for shits and giggles." | ||
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However I will still respond to portions of your post, because I rather dislike some parts of it. On March 13 2010 12:04 Foolishness wrote: Being "organized" can mean so many different things. The way you choose to define "organized" (publicized lists of people to use blue powers on) is not the only way for the town to work together, and in any case, "organization" in itself is not necessarily beneficial unless it helps the town's goals, which are to find scum, and keep town members alive. I have laid out in a recent post a specific "plan of action" for DTs which I think is reasonable, which does not involve public DT lists. I have also provided the specific steps in how the plan can possibly proceed, while your argument against it was to vaguely refer to one previous game as an isolated example where something vaguely similar to what I'm proposing did not work out and emphasize "organized" as some sort of mantra, as if it in itself would lead to success.The point of the matter is that it's better to have the blue roles organized and under some general plan of action, and not letting them "choose for themselves" as you said. On March 13 2010 12:04 Foolishness wrote: Even though the fears of DT checks being muddled are no longer relevant, I take issue with your point of view here - the point of view in which you find one in three inaccuracy in a DT check acceptable. I already have a better check than that - I can tell you with 80% accuracy who else is a town member. Just pick any player randomly. I want to point out here that being satisfied with a one in three chance of your DT check being wrong is setting incredibly low standards for what the DT power could do. I hesitate to move forward with this argument, but here it is: only mafia would be happy if the DT check was wrong 1 in 3 of the time.If the bus driver chooses to mess it up, they can only mess up ONE of the 3 people. Still a good chance DT's check is going to go through. In any case, this will be my last post on this matter so you can have the last word if you wish, unless you really make some truly outrageous statements. I don't feel that drawing out this discussion any further benefits the town. Too much focus on any one issue or just a few people induces tunnel vision and could lead the town to lose sight of the wider picture, such as the other mafia members out there. We should move on to different issues instead of further dragging this along. P.S. Every town member who isn't posting: post your thoughts, one way or another. The rest of the town has no way to evaluate you and eliminate you as a mafia suspect unless you contribute something, since there are no clues! Even if you aren't really sure of something, at least take a stand one way or another so that later on we can try to judge your actions to see if you were cooperating with mafia (you weren't, of course) and to see if you had inside information the mafia had (but you don't, of course). | ||
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Not being allowed to abstain in votes is a huge plus for town members as votes reveal information that can be used to evaluate a player later in the game. Yet the three of you subvert that by essentially abstaining by voting for someone who has basically not participated in the game so far. Explain yourselves - why can you not commit to helping the town by leaving a paper trail of your opinion? | ||
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On March 13 2010 16:58 Fishball wrote: I'm wondering this as well. Although any discussion of this choice now will be tinged by the fact he was town, I would still like to hear your thought process that led to this decision. What are the things you considered scummy (behind his last minute voting stuff?)Uh, why the hell would you lynch JeeJee. And also, what are your cases against your other possible lynch candidates Malongo and Versatile? Well, since it's day 1, probably not real cases, but what led you to consider them relatively more scummy than everyone else? | ||
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On March 13 2010 17:09 Zona wrote: I'm wondering this as well. Although any discussion of this choice now will be tinged by the fact he was town, I would still like to hear your thought process that led to this decision. What are the things you considered scummy (besides his last minute voting stuff?) And also, what are your cases against your other possible lynch candidates Malongo and Versatile? Well, since it's day 1, probably not real cases, but what led you to consider them relatively more scummy than everyone else? Fixed typo. Yay post-WL sleepy posting. | ||
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On March 16 2010 04:00 Incognito wrote: Anyway, at the rate that this is going, I am considering pardoning Abenson if he wins this lynch. Not because I am convinced of his innocence, but because I think you guys are just trying to bandwagon him to death. Do not pardon anyone. (I'm still catching up on posts and haven't decided whether or not he feels innocent.) Even if he is innocent and dies, we need that information as town. If you pardon, we have no idea whether or not he is innocent, and we cannot use that information to evaluate how people were discussing him. Even a town member being lynched provides more information than we had before, and we need this information. To be honest I think the existence of a pardoner is not helpful to the town because pardoning itself is rarely beneficial, and is downright dangerous in the hands of a mafia pardoner late game, but that's a discussion for elsewhere, I suppose. | ||
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On March 15 2010 10:10 BloodyC0bbler wrote: The strategy for a CLAIMED, PROTECTED DT is different from the strategy for an UNCLAIMED, UNPROTECTED DT.As I have stated earlier in this thread, the DT's job is to build the list of confirmed townies + find red. An unclaimed, unprotected DT has the trouble of convincing the town if he or she finds red, that's why finding greens/blues and speaking with them privately is first priority. Instead, you are a protected, claimed DT - YOUR PRIORITY IS TO FIND RED right now, NOT blue/green. First of all, the town has no reason to trust you. Perhaps you are a mafia member and the real DT is afraid to claim in fear of being killed. But the biggest difference is that the town should vote along with you if you say you found red, at least the first time you say it. You do not have the normal trouble of an unclaimed DT where it's difficult to convince the town to vote with you, and you do not have the normal fear of an unprotected DT where if they claim they could be killed the next night. If you point out a red and the town lynches them, and it turns out to be red, THEN you will get a massive boost to credibility (and perhaps then can start being a trusted coordinator, although I still think you should focus on finding red). If you point out a red and the town lynches them, and they aren't red...well the town should know what to do. It's possible that you are a mafia member sacrificing a fellow member when you point out a red and it turns out to be red, but that case is still good for the town, as losing a mafia member that early really helps our probabilities. I want you, BC, to focus on finding red, not blue/green, with your DT checks. In fact, I will be VERY suspicious if by around Day 4/5 you still have not located any reds with your DT check as the probabilities of randomly finding at least ONE red after several checks is high. (Example: in the night 1-3 checks assuming that the town is not successful in lynching, the probability of finding at least mafia through the three entirely random checks is 57%, and BC should be greatly increasing this chance by using his reading of the thread.) | ||
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If BC is a mafia member, then it is essential we figure this out as soon as possible. (If BC is green or a non-DT...I hate you for lying as a town member. Lying as a town member is rarely beneficial.) P.S. Those players who play erratically as town to help their chances when they play another game as mafia - I also hate you. You reduce your and the town's chances for winning when you are town only to help your chances to win another game as mafia. That's a sign of weakness, not skill, in the game of mafia. | ||
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The town benefits from clarity - when players (both mafia and town) post their opinions and thoughts in a solid, clear manner. Their accusations and plans can later be examined to see if they were knowingly trying to protect mafia or advance the mafia's goals. Your posting is not clear and you are constantly denying that you held various opinions, as players try to interpret your posts. And you do not clearly stating what your actual positions are in return (beyond "lynch BM"). Furthermore, your vendetta against BM doesn't seem useful. You have indeed posted a few in-game reasons in favor for his lynch for it, but beyond your "case" have expressed your desire to lynch him out of animosity or reasons beyond how BM has performed in this game. Why this is unhelpful is that if BM is lynched and he turns out green, I suspect you will wash your hands of your position by falling back on "I didn't like how he played, even if he was townie" or something along those lines. | ||
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On March 14 2010 04:38 nemY wrote: Obviously there's only two logical reasons for voting for d3_crescentia 1.) L, myself and BC are all mafia and were trying to make a late game push for our other mafia buddy, d3_crescentia. 2.) We're the three best friends that anyone could have... While L and BC's responses are reasonable, this response is not. You have responded with sarcasm and have provided no reason why you feel you should not leave a paper trail of voting for the rest of the players to examine later on. If you are a town member and unsure about who to vote for, still put a vote on your best guess. Later on your vote can be examined to see if you were working with mafia or had information that town members usually do not. | ||
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On March 12 2010 07:37 Incognito wrote: Any town member wants to be rolechecked, so they can be trusted. Any person claiming to be town will claim to want to be rolechecked to go along with this. It's not a major risk for a mafia member to ask to be rolechecked because the DTs still decide on their own from among many players who to check. And he put himself in the spot already by running for elections, so he needs to follow through.Reasons why I think L is town: He wants to be rolechecked. He wants to kill green officeholders. Which means he's either blue or GF. If he's GF, it will be hard to fake a blue role. I don't think a mafia would forcefully put themselves on the spot so willingly. On March 12 2010 07:37 Incognito wrote: I like this part. However like you said we don't have proof that he actually claimed to three people. I want BC to reveal which three people he claimed to, and those people to confirm that he claimed AFTER BC has named his list. Revealing this information (as far as I can see) has no particular benefits to the mafia as BC is not revealing any blue roles, nor is he revealing if he has any information about these three people. He, and the three, are just simply confirming that the talked to each other, proving that his statement was true.Reasons why I think BC is town: He says that he claimed to three people. Claiming DT to three people is a pretty bad idea if you're mafia. You'd preferably keep it to one so you can kill off that member if you decide you are being found out. Now we don't have proof about the other two people he told, but I don't know if he'd make that bad of a lie. | ||
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On March 16 2010 09:15 Versatile wrote: While I agree with you in part, you forgot to mention that he claimed DT: lynching a claimed DT this early in the game is a really bad idea, and I do not like that you suggested it.my top suspect is BC, and that's who i think the town should lynch. my reasoning being, he's playing horribly as not only a vet, but a vet who is also our mayor. no vet runs for mayor and is this inactive and this unhelpful if they're unless they've got some serious IRL things going on, and BC has said nothing of the sort yet. in my book, being a retarded player is enough to get you lynched in most cases. being a retarded mayor is enough to get you lynched each and every time. On March 16 2010 09:15 Versatile wrote: I do agree the cases right now are pretty weak, but this is day 2. But it's almost always better to have a lynch even if we lynch wrong, because lynching gains information with which the town can use to evaluate how people have accused and voted in the past. I also don't like when people say "I'm afraid we'll lynch a townie" because it's something mafia might say, as they know before the lynch whether or not it's a good one for the town. Of course newbie town members will often be unhappy/worry about lynching town members, but apparently you're a respected player here so perhaps more should be expected of you?i also think that are seriously weak cases for every one of the people up for lynching this round. i wouldn't vote to lynch any of them, as i'm sure they're going to pop up green. i would rather not have a lynch than kill a townie. | ||
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On March 13 2010 11:58 L wrote: Bill Murray, Jee Jee, Madnessman. I honestly hope BC decided to kill one of you. Hi, do you still feel the same way about madnessman? | ||
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On March 14 2010 07:30 L wrote: First, volunteering to be killed is a gambit that can be played by both town and mafia members. And I must have missed where you used your blue abilities to prove your alignment.I've been the only person to offer a concrete proof of my alignment via either blue abilities or volunteering to be killed. | ||
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On March 14 2010 13:51 madnessman wrote: PS. Isn't it equally likely that people trying to act nondescriptly and voting early on could be mafia too? As we saw in the last game, NONE of the swing voters for redtooth were mafia. Yes, there's enough people who haven't posted any concrete thoughts or accusations that there's likely at least a few mafia among them. Without clues there's no easy way of them being found out. The real benefit to these players are town members who are also inactive, allowing such mafia to hide among them. If you are town and inactive, you are helping inactive mafia hide among you. Post your opinions, no matter how unsure of them you are, so at the very least the mafia among you cannot run unchecked. | ||
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On March 14 2010 16:40 L wrote: If mafia has a role they want dead right now, its the medic and bus driver. Once one of those are dead, they can start chopping away at the BG block and kill our DT. After the DT/medic die, the mafia 'clock' stops ticking, because the amount of confirmed townies stops growing and the chance that goons get outed starts going up. Given the low kp/round, the game is likely to go on for a while, which means that the effects of the medic, driver and DT are incredibly amplified. Our bus driver isn't strong, since he or she only has two uses, but I agree our medic is a big target. However, since you are always saying that we don't interpret your posts correctly, let me ask you this: by saying "they can start chopping away at the BG block and kill our DT" you mean that you believe BC is in fact a DT? | ||
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On March 15 2010 12:48 Incognito wrote: You know, I agree with this. If someone makes a post with a strong accusation or a good plan, I think others should support it. Otherwise it risks being ignored as no one discussed it.I'm disappointed and frustrated that every time I make a post in thread, I am ignored. Completely. Its not the mafia's fault, its the townies faults. On March 15 2010 12:48 Incognito wrote: I also agree with this. You can talk with others in private without being a entirely sure they're town. It's useful to point out suspicious things about other players with them and see how they respond, and see if they agree or can point out things you haven't noticed. However, for the record, Incognito hasn't PM'd me yet, either, other than a response to a question I had for him much earlier in the game.A bunch of you have been responding to my pms thinking that I am just trying to fish for mafia. While that is a component of pms, it is not the only component. So stop being defensive about pms and thinking that I am accusing you. Answer the questions, and hopefully we can have a good discussion in private. On March 15 2010 12:48 Incognito wrote: A hundred times this! Everyone - you signed up to play the game, and win. If you are a town member, you help us win by posting. Again, even if you aren't sure, still post what's on your mind. Make some accusations and see how people respond. If you worry about making wrong accusations and being seen as mafia? Well your inactivity is WORSE, and allows other mafia to hide. The object of the game isn't necessarily to survive yourself, but to help your side win. So even if you become a target for the mafia by participating, if you help find them, even just by being active and not letting them hide among you, you're increasing your chances to win.As has been proven in the past, inactivity allows the mafia to hide. But how do the mafia know if its safe to hide? By observing the fact that other townies are also being inactive. | ||
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On March 16 2010 09:39 Versatile wrote: I don't think the main power of the DT is to be active in the thread, but yes, I do want our elected officials to be active. I will definitely support lynching him if he does not produce a red by day 4. Actually I'm still working through my thoughts but there may be an advantage to revealing some partial information even if his checks only hit town-aligned players.part 1: how do you feel about lynch a supposed DT mayor who has not been active? seriously, think about it. if you were DT and mayor, what would you be doing? he is not being active. he is not leading. he isn't doing anything DT mayor would do, at least not from what i've seen in thread. you're talking about expecting more from me, how about expecting more from the head of the town? On March 16 2010 09:39 Versatile wrote: I do see your point here how this lynch might not provide as much information as usual since they're been no jockeying between candidates (other than the madnessness). Next day everyone (including me) needs to really start earlier in discussing possible lynch candidates.part 2: true we learn information, and that's useful, but imo, it's pretty clear we're not lynching a mafia member. there hasn't been any push to save anyone or change up votes. there hasn't been anything to even hint that the mafia is worried about losing a member, unless incog follows through on the pardon, which he should NOT. the town's decision should go through, no matter how much anyone may disagree with it. in any case, there will be a lynch and we'll get this information you want. Also, your thoughts on this make me really think about the pardoner late game. A mafia pardoner late game can simply make his fellow mafia members immune to lynch twice while the mafia whittle down the town at night. I think pardoning is a bad idea...but is allowing the pardon to be held back even more dangerous? | ||
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On March 15 2010 09:38 Foolishness wrote: There is a point that needs to be addressed to the town. L claims he has a circle of 3(?) blues, BC said he claimed to people and has hinted he knows blues, Incog claims he knows a bunch of blues as well. There are more blues going around than there are probably in the game. If you all were really blue, why haven't you coordinated together? If all of you were legit, I'd expect this game to be near over for the mafia because you probably know over half the town is innocent. Why isn't this happening? Why are none of you telling us who to lynch (exception of L here). Somebody's full of shit with you three. At least one of you is lying about the information you know. Based on what you three have individually said, this game should be nearly over. Why are we still playing and why are we guessing on who to lynch today? I agree with this part 100%. It's highly likely at least one of the L, BC, or Incognito isn't speaking the truth. | ||
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On March 16 2010 10:09 l10f wrote: I'm predicting two greens... What's the use of this post? Also, it seems you're here at the deadline: You're one of the people who needs to post more thoughts, even if you're not really sure about things. If you're not mafia you're doing a good job of helping them hide by being inactive like some of them surely also are. | ||
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On March 16 2010 10:16 Versatile wrote: zona- do the math. if BC (plus town) doesn't find a mafia member by day 4, worse case scenario, where the medics don't prevent any hits and we lynch a town member every day, we're 11 v 5. that's 6 successful mafia hits in 3 nights, and 3 towny lynches. now imagine BC is mafia. a DT who hasn't found a red for 3 days, that's not completely impossible, right? that's 11 vs 7 votes, and since when has the town ever voted to together as one? Just because we hold off on BC for now doesn't mean we can't search for other mafia. If we as a town can't identify any mafia other than possibly BC, we're screwed anyways. Also, 3 DT checks have a 43% chance of failing to find even one red if town lynches wrong and medics don't prevent any hits, and BC should be doing better than just random checks. Actually, I might as well post my thoughts on possibly revealing information even if our claimed mayor DT only finds greens and blues. The power of a private town circle is to discuss with each other their thoughts without being worried about mafia interference, as well as reduce the pool of players they need to consider when looking for mafia, increasing their likelihood of being correct. They can also vote together, which helps reduce the risk of isolated town votes being overwhelmed by mafia ones. The risk of revealing the circle is to have it broken and its advantages lost. The mafia will kill two town members every night (lucky medics and bus drivers notwithstanding), but would rather kill confirmed town members rather than nonconfirmed because confirmed town members help the town narrow down suspects and drive the discussion. So this is the argument against revealing the town circle. However, if BC supposedly is able to assemble a town circle while not being able to find mafia, the town should definitely become supremely suspicious (when he can't find mafia). Then perhaps the advantages of the BC-centric town circle revealing itself partially or completely (NOT THEIR ROLES, just the fact that BC has checked and confirmed them) may outweigh the disadvantages. The loss of the town circle advantages are significant, but it's even more significant to deal with the suspicion around the mayor, especially if he turns out to be a mafia, and thus could never bring himself to sacrifice one of their own to boost his credibility. Note that I'm not entirely convinced that the above plan is the way to go, but I do want to throw it out there. I do want to note that if BC really was an authentic DT mayor - the mafia would definitely want to try to get him lynched. It's incredibly difficult for them to kill him at night and will take some time before they can kill him through that route. | ||
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On March 16 2010 10:51 Bill Murray wrote: Why wouldn't they be? I am a confirmed townie. WTF is this? By what means are you confirmed? It looks like you're just making this statement and fishing. I've been overlooking your erratic play all game because you act strangely in other games and all over TL, but this is too much. | ||
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On March 16 2010 11:00 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Tell us - are you looking for mafia or are you looking to build a town circle?Sadly for you, my check is going elsewhere. Maybe tommorrow. You haven't responded at all to my proposed plan, with reasoning, for you. At the very least BC, as mayor you should be discussing what people propose. I am very displeased at how little you are interacting with the town's opinions in public. | ||
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On March 16 2010 11:02 Bill Murray wrote: I feel like you've been acting a lot scummier than I have, zona. Actually I'll be happy for you to accuse me. What exactly am I doing that is scummy? | ||
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On March 16 2010 11:04 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Well for one thing, you haven't said anything about my proposed plan, one way or another, which was specifically meant for you.Most of the towns opinion is reiterating the same arguments. Some I have dealt with once, and see no point repeating. On March 16 2010 11:04 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Good to have you on the record on how you plan to use your powers. I will follow up on this the next day.As for Who i am checking. I have had another player RC a role I have already found. As the chances of two of them are insanely low, it means potentially one is lying. Once that is done, findings will be released. | ||
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On March 16 2010 11:08 L wrote: To elaborate on what BC just said: 2 DTs seem to have checked the same target, which was bussed to a second target. Whether or not this is a fluke or someone's lying intensely is yet to be found. To once again avoid misinterpreting your genius. Does this mean you and BC are cooperating? | ||
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On March 16 2010 11:13 Bill Murray wrote: I'm getting off here... too much smoke and too many mirrors. Sorry, that's not the way I expect someone to respond when they call me scummy and I ask them to back up their accusation. Do you have any reasons at all? It would be good for the town to hear them. | ||
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On March 16 2010 11:13 Foolishness wrote: Obviously, that's why they're both advocating lynching the same people. -_- L has been saying that some of us have been misinterpreting him. I want to make sure that everything he has to say is entirely clear for the town to judge. | ||
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Since he was inactive, he was an ideal person for the mafia to sacrifice to burnish their own townie credentials. | ||
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On March 16 2010 09:23 Zona wrote: I like this part. However like you said we don't have proof that he actually claimed to three people. I want BC to reveal which three people he claimed to, and those people to confirm that he claimed AFTER BC has named his list. Revealing this information (as far as I can see) has no particular benefits to the mafia as BC is not revealing any blue roles, nor is he revealing if he has any information about these three people. He, and the three, are just simply confirming that the talked to each other, proving that his statement was true. Here's one more I want you to respond to, BC. I want the statements you have made proved, one way or another. Also, since the plan you proposed does not mention if you're prioritizing aiming for mafia, blues, greens, or town members in general after checking the elected officials. I want you to prioritize potential mafia members for checks. It's true that mafia members want a DT mayor dead. But the rest of the town has no evidence that you're really a true DT. If you were a mafia mayor, then the town needs to get rid of you. As I've stated before, I think you should have until day 4 to prove yourself, so don't go accusing me of wanting to get rid of you. 3 nights are plenty for you to use your power enough to prove yourself. But you need to keep in mind that you need to get the rest of the town's trust - because we HAVE to be wary that you are in fact a mafia mayor and not a DT, as if you really were mafia, we'd be in deep danger. Since you are a protected claimed mayor, though forming a town circle is nice, which seems to be the crux of your plan (dealing with perhaps a non-mayor DT), finding a mafia to lynch so that the rest of the town can trust you more is more important than that. BC's plan post is spoilered here in case some readers don't want to scroll to find it: + Show Spoiler + On March 11 2010 05:12 BloodyC0bbler wrote: As for mayoral elections. I, BloodyC0bbler, am running for office. With the setup of this game, and the fact elected positions can be RC'd, the elected positions are far more likely to end up in townie hands. This is a good thing, and I believe it is in our best interests to make sure town can get in. I believe that I would be a good candidate because I have many games worth of experience, a few as an elected official, and others where I have have helped in the pinning of reds. I believe that from this experience I will be able to help the town quickly and hopefully bring about a swift end to the mafia. The Plan: The plan is simple. Whoever is elected (in this case I would love it to be me), but regardless, whoever is elected. The dt or dt's will both check the elected officials. I would say if your a dt and numbered 1-12 on the list, check the mayor, 13-25 check the pardoner. Instantly we have information. If they are a blue role you write it down. If they are red, speak up to someone (possibly wait a day to find a green person in a check). Reveal the findings, person dies. If they are green, keep them on a seperate list. Soon as you get two greens, RC them, and tell them who you checked and start a circle. If you get blues. Keep that info to yourself until you need it proved. If you find a dt, make them check someone (most likely one you've checked to confirm), medic prot someone, vig hit someone, etc... Anyone who flips red dies. For all those who are not a dt. Constantly update your posts in the archive thread, and carefully analyze peoples posting behaviours. If you think something is a tell, or feel they are scummy, rather than just point a finger, really sit down and prove it. But be aware that if you cause the death of an important player and they flip town, you will prob quickly follow. Medics, protect the bgs with your life. We will randomly pick one from the list of two, and then tell you to prot them. Past protecting the bgs, no one talk to them in PM's, IM's, or IRC, period. They are not confirmable, do not associate with them. They can talk via thread, feel free to respond to them here, do not tell them anything. Conclusion: This game can be won very easily if we play it smart. I believe outside of my general plan to play, the reason I should be elected is I believe I will represent a threat to the mafia, which means they will have to actively try to remove me, which will give themselves away. If they don't I will continue to strengthen the town, and effectively force them to GG. | ||
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On March 16 2010 09:23 Zona wrote: I like this part. However like you said we don't have proof that he actually claimed to three people. I want BC to reveal which three people he claimed to, and those people to confirm that he claimed AFTER BC has named his list. Revealing this information (as far as I can see) has no particular benefits to the mafia as BC is not revealing any blue roles, nor is he revealing if he has any information about these three people. He, and the three, are just simply confirming that the talked to each other, proving that his statement was true. You haven't responded to this part of my post that is just above yours. On March 16 2010 11:53 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Catching reds is the overall game, but clearing innocents is just as important. Anycheck can do either or. That's true, but you need to clear YOURSELF to the rest of the town. Finding red (rather than green/blue) is one of the easier ways to do so, at least partially. The only way we can have rock solid confirmation is for two DTs to check each other, but if you try to check people who are likely to be red (rather than trying to find blue, or some other plan), the earlier the rest of the town can trust you more. There's also no reason to be condescending. Please focus on rational reasoning in your posts. On March 16 2010 11:21 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Think with your head please | ||
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On March 16 2010 13:03 L wrote: I'm glad you've pointed this out. Because his voting history is entirely opposite of what he states he believes. For example, among his various posts:But then bill switches back to Abenson (9-9) and johnny throws the final vote off the malongo train onto bill on bill's insistence (9-8 Abenson). Once again, these last shifts happen LESS THAN FIVE MINUTES before the deadline. On March 16 2010 11:02 Bill Murray wrote: I was very outspoken against Malongo. If you were against Malongo, why did you vote for Abenson? Don't try to use the same explanation I'm using, as your situation is entirely different. | ||
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On March 16 2010 11:08 L wrote: To elaborate on what BC just said: 2 DTs seem to have checked the same target, which was bussed to a second target. Whether or not this is a fluke or someone's lying intensely is yet to be found. BC. You have no contradicted this statement in any way publicly, so I assume you agree with it. If not, you had better speak up now, and I would be shocked that you allowed this post to go by without commenting on it. | ||
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On March 17 2010 03:02 Bill Murray wrote: omg dude, i've been on IRC once in the past 5 years, and it was when TeamLiquid was down for maintenance during the time that Mystlord was about to stream some pro scene. do NOT say I get on IRC. Don't ask me to speak to the mods about you making falce accusations about me using IRC. I DO NOT USE IRC. On March 17 2010 03:16 Bill Murray wrote: .... he did feel pretty comfortable when I talked to him and Ace on IRC about Malongo being red. What's this? | ||
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On March 17 2010 03:15 Fishball wrote: You also have the ability to spam posts, 7 in a row. You're here. Post some real thoughts about the game, stop being inactive and letting mafia hide among inactives like you. | ||
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On March 16 2010 13:03 L wrote: Bill Murray is 100% mafia after today. On March 14 2010 14:44 L wrote: Citi.zen, if you feel so strongly about killing me, how's about we kill bill murray today and if I'm wrong, you kill me tomorrow. Sounds like everyone wins. Let's do this. | ||
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On March 17 2010 03:29 Fishball wrote: "Inactive" is a relevant thing. I've always been here. Being here doesn't mean you're active. Being active means posting plans, opinions, accusations. You have nothing substantial among these categories. Step it up. | ||
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On March 17 2010 03:33 Fishball wrote: Like I said, it is a relevant thing. Obviously we have totally different definitions of being "active". Do you not wish to help the town? We're trying to find mafia. You help the town in two ways - posting ideas that may shed light on who mafia are. Posting ideas so that you yourself appear less suspicious and more like a town member. Since you've posted no real ideas whatsoever - we have no way of reading you. And only those who are mafia benefit when we have no idea where someone's alignment lies. You need to contribute so that we do not suspect YOU as mafia. | ||
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On March 16 2010 15:40 Incognito wrote: Other thoughts: I find it interesting how Versatile brings up an ultimatum on BC. Then proceeds to viciously attack the fact that BC isn't announcing people he's checked. Then, when BC responds, Versatile disappears. Something is not right here. The way they're going at each other, I'm guessing one of BC/Versatile are mafia. The question right now is, which one? Good question. Atm BC can be tested more than Versatile given BC's claim. This is a very bad post. Town members more often then not get into bigger arguments than town and mafia, because town members lack information, and mafia want to stay below the radar. Your conclusion here seems to be setting up a case on BC if Versatile dies and turns up townie (or vice versa), which I very much dislike. | ||
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I want the town to think very much about BC/L working together. So much so that L is elaborating on BC's statements, and BC does nothing to refute L's elaborations. If they can prove themselves as town, we're in amazing shape. I am curious how they came to trust each other though. A DT/mayor (if that's what BC actually is) definitely needs to be very sure before trusting someone, so I assume BC would have done his due diligence before trusting L. However, if BC went according to his plan, he would have checked the other elected official, incognito, first. I very very much want and hope that BC/L are both town and working together. However, another reason why they might be working together is if they're both mafia. Now there's little sign that both are mafia right now, but if we accept that they're both not mafia, I want to know how they came to trust each other. You may say I'm fishing for information, but I'm looking for explanations of your public actions. You two are working together, and we as a town should be wondering if there's any valid reason WHY. Because if there is no strong reason why they should trust each other, there's only one other explanation why they do so. It should be BC's number one priority to get the trust of the town right now. Prove to us that you're a legit DT/mayor. Like Versatile has said, once BC has proved himself, he can become the center of a much larger town circle, everyone can role claim to him, and we can wrap up this game. If BC cannot prove himself to be DT, then the town needs to remember how powerful a mafia member can be with three votes and an excuse for not getting nightkilled. | ||
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I think the pardoner MECHANISM as a whole brings NOTHING good to the town. When players die, the rest of the town gains CONCRETE INFORMATION. However, with mafia nightkills, the mafia decides what information to reveal, so the information from a lynch is much more valuable, because it is not totally driven by the mafia. As well, vote history is very valuable when combined with lynch results. So when the pardoner ever pardons, the town is deprived of information is needs to get. Okay, so the pardoner shouldn't pardon. But therein lies the problem. When we reach lategame, the pardoner power becomes EVEN MORE DANGEROUS to the town, when in the hands of a mafia member. By that point in the game, the pardon can simply be used to cancel a town's lynch, and allow the mafia to continue whittling down the town with their nightkill. So we as a town want to reach lategame without the pardoner having his or her power. But if the pardoner ever uses his or her power...it's a bad thing. I have no easy answer to this dilemma. However, if we force the pardoner to use up pardons earlier in the game to remove the risk of mafia pardoning late game, the town falls behind and loses two lynches. If we kill the pardoner with a lynch, we fall behind in ONE lynch, but we also lose one town member. The only alternative is we somehow have to prove the pardoner is definitely town, so we can avoid using pardons and also go into the lategame without worrying about mafia pardoning. | ||
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On March 17 2010 04:02 Versatile wrote: i think there is only one way to deal with this. the two tells the pardoner (incog in this game) that we do not want any lynches. and if he goes against the town's wishes so blantantly, that's cause for immediate lynching. of course, this should have been done in the beginning of the game, but we can just keep it in mind for future games as well. obviously there some problems with this, for example, it counts on the pardoner keeping their word so it is not full proof. The thing is, the pardoner obeying the town in using up pardons in the first two days does nothing to prove how town-aligned they are. The mafia would be happy to have a monopoly on kills for two days. They then control what information the town has. Actually the first town lynch vote is probably one of the most important in the game, because it provides the first voting record for the town to examine. I'd definitely be against pardoning that one... That's why the mechanic of having the mayor decide the first lynch actually sets the town back, because there's no voting history to examine day 2. | ||
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On March 17 2010 07:30 Bill Murray wrote: MY team = green players, and I have no idea who they are. I'm in no circles. I can't trust anyone. I thought a bunch of people role claimed to you, which you implied when you said "keep the roleclaims coming"? Wouldn't that make you the center of some circle? | ||
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From my dying spirit I toss to you the torch, town...good luck! | ||
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On March 19 2010 12:57 Incognito wrote: Regardless I still stand by the idea that you just don't announce your DT checks even if you're elected. WTF is this? Earlier in the game you post a DT list, which is pretty much declaring DT checks - and now you "stand by the idea" that you DON'T announce your DT checks? The game's over...but I still have to point this out. And don't get me wrong. I have nothing personal against you. In fact I think it's great that you host games and play in them. It's also my hope that you don't have any particular grudge against me for losing all interest in your second hosted game. However, it's just that your ideas were so all over the board (and poor) all game, and I need to point them out. | ||
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wow at the emotions running through the thread. | ||
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On March 21 2010 08:37 madnessman wrote: i gotta say bm was actually pretty spot on for the majority of his guesses. Totally disagree. He made so many guesses that some of them were bound to be correct. He made so many "person x is probably green" and "person x is probably red" style posts, if anyone bothered to count them up we'd see that his success rate was unspectacular. | ||
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On March 21 2010 10:37 citi.zen wrote: As I said before, I now think L's "playing style" is perfectly OK. It does come more naturally to some people than others, but in the end the "good" players in repeated games often make bad arguments or behave inconsistently. All that means is that "catching" him next time he is red will not be easy: playing like crap and lynching greens would be "consistent". I disagree. I stated this before, but I think that if a player who is town in a game makes bad arguments or is not being helpful in general to aid his or her chances as a mafia member in future games is not a show of skill, but instead shows a lack of skill, because this player is not confident in his or her ability to be helpful and appear town-like in a game as mafia. The player is essentially hurting the town (and his/her) chances to win when playing as a member of the town only to help his/her chances to win when playing as a member of the mafia. | ||
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On March 21 2010 11:34 L wrote: An extra medic and another mafia kp would have balanced the game quite nicely, imo. Do you really think so? I do agree the extra mafia KP would have helped a lot, because it greatly reduces the number of days available to the town before losing, and thus the number of mislynches the town can afford (the number in this game is ridiculously high), but 2 DTs in a game where the protected elected officials can be checked is incredibly powerful. No only can 2 DTs check a significant portion of the game's players between them, but they can confirm each other and the protected mouthpiece they can then use. | ||
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On March 21 2010 12:22 L wrote: Extra kp is massive and lets you double up on DTs to get kills. Playing smart would involve someone fake claiming something, then when the town finds out ask for a mafia bus claim to the person who's going to be killed. Then use a pseudo confirmed setup to give him orders; An IRC channel where no one admits their name except the bus, for instance. At this point the moment you discover blues, you can bus them to randoms and siphon hits in which makes the medics useless unless counter counter bussed. tbh, mafia might even be heavily favored in that format depending on how early bus contacts. Well remember Fishball's amazing switch to get rid of the bodyguards removed something that could have been a huge factor this game. With checkable elected roles, the DT doesn't need to reveal to the public who he/she is, or if elected, the DT is protected by two layers of protection. Plus with only only 2 shots for the bus driver, it can only nullify medics twice. Interesting plan you have there to trade a mafia member for the bus driver. I think it's a good idea, but with this game it might not have worked so well with so many townies fake claiming that role to others in PM...ugh. If DT checks could be bussed without the DT knowing, then the mafia bus driver could be killer without coordinating. But that wasn't the case in this game. | ||
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