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TL Mafia XVIII
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DoctorHelvetica
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DoctorHelvetica
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On February 10 2010 05:15 Zato-1 wrote: A few questions... 1. If a DT successfully ties a clue to a mafia member / RCs a mafia member, will that DT be told what family the mafia member belongs to? If the answer is yes, will millers appear to be from a random mafia family to DTs? 2. As far as I can see, it's a no-brainer for the mafia families (who don't have the mayor/pardoner among their ranks) to substitute their own members for bodyguards. Am I missing something? 3. As soon as one mafia family falls down to 2 or fewer members, they've essentially lost the game- they cannot win, because either they will be wiped out (the other mafia family wins), or they will reduce the other mafia family to 1-2 members in which case the Town wins. What incentive is there for this mafia family to keep playing, considering they cannot win? Will they have some kind of secondary objective, like a consolation prize? e.g. maybe a secondary objective of theirs would be to not be wiped out, in which case once they fall down to 2 members, they have to push for a Town win rather than let the other mafia family win. 4. What happens in the hypothetical case that all 30 Town members are dead, and after they all die, both families are reduced to 1-2 members each? Does the Town still win? 5. Why does the Gambino Family have a much cooler name than the Sumiyoshi Family? Sumiyoshi > Gambino | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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On February 10 2010 05:33 Zato-1 wrote: Psh. Gambino sounds like an actual mafia family name. Sumiyoshi sounds like your local sushi joint family name. Yakuza bitch | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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On February 10 2010 09:40 Abenson wrote: I think i'd prefer to have a more complex win objectives... perhaps there could be some type of cooperation between mafia win? Edit: Maybe i'll finally be able to evolve from a lowly drone to... whatever the next picture thing is :D zergling at 100 i think | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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On February 10 2010 11:28 Iaaan wrote: I think its at 250 or 300 or something, I'm just over 200 posts and still a wee probie ): the amount of time you've been registered is also taken into account, not just post count ;o | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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 o | ||
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it'll just be a matter of time | ||
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Excited to get my role | ||
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It begins! | ||
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On February 14 2010 09:16 L wrote: The only real points of contention in any election is whether or not we're voting in someone who's red or blue, and who we're going to kill if we're elected. The first is very hard to determine for the majority of people, so we generally just look at the competition for who we're going to kill. Cults of personality also play into this, but frankly none of us are superstar ballers that automatically deserve an in. So what exactly, should we talk about? Who we're going to mayor lynch? I'm hovering between Ace, Chez or an inactive. It'd be nice to try to get a solid ideas of what the theme of the clues are, rather than who they might point to. By doing that, we can start building up a list of clue types and whose profiles/names/sig have material of that category. For instance, references to darkness/moon/horseriding/fire in day 1 are pretty broad. We compile a list of different clue themes, who might possibly fit those themes and then we narrow them down as the game goes on. The first mayor lynch is important as well. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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I don't really like the pardoner power to be honest, I guess I would only use it to save someone who I suspected/knew was blue or under some sort of special circumstance. My limited experience hurts me here, but can any more experienced players let me in on what kind of pro-town role the pardoner really holds? | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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On February 14 2010 10:13 Ver wrote: Oh L, I didn't get to finish what I was writing, sorry. People should definitely be talking. The thing is day 1 clues literally are useless/vague/incomprehensible. You got Truthbringer killed off of a day 2 clue which is much different (I'm not really opposed to day 2 clue talk, though day 3 is when it really gets useful). So while people talk, they really don't give much evidence as to their alignment unless they make some glaring error (this does not necessarily hold for later days when clues are more useful). People most definitely need to talk but they need to talk about something useful. Now what we should be doing on the first day: 1) Plans 2) Information 3) Lynch target This game is a setup we've only had once before. There's a lot of potential strategies for the town, some leftover relics from the previous game, and possibly some new ones. Unfortunately the best strategy from the previous game, located here, the bodyguard sacrifice to use as a confirmed innocent, we made no longer valid because bgs can be subbed. Therefore we need some new ideas out there of how to proceed as the town. Mayor candidates must have a plan. This is for two reasons. a) We need something to base the votes off of, and b) we need to hold them accountable. The worst case scenario is an innocent mayor doing something retarded that gets them lynched, since the town has a propensity to lynch it's elected roles when they are innocent. This prospect forces mafia candidates to actually help the town or they won't get elected. And it let's innocent candidates assert their...innocence, if they can come up with some really good ideas. What you can do: Post whatever you think on people, plans, etc. Don't hold back. If you are town you have nothing to fear. If you're mafia, well you should already be trembling in your boots. If you really really want to talk about clues, the most useful thing to do is to create profiles for each assailant. Don't try to fit names to the clues yet, just build the profile so people have something to work with on later days. This actually is a legitimate use of time and will help us later. Not posting helps the mafia. Why? The mafia don't want to actually have to spend effort in public. They want to scheme amongst themselves, and they don't want to actually have to offer real advice. An ideal game for the mafia is where all 50 people say nothing and just randomly kill people and the mafia sit back and win. The ideal game for the town is when everyone posts and is contributing ideas, forcing mafia to do so to blend in but they will mess up, and they will get caught if they are forced to post enough. If you are innocent, do NOT sit back and contribute nothing. Actively post, actively contribute the best you can offer. If you can't offer much, it's okay, just post what you can. As long as you don't antagonize people or spam to cover up very useful information your posting will only help us. Excellent points. I especially agree with building "clue profiles" that grow increasingly strong as time goes on. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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On February 14 2010 10:27 BloodyC0bbler wrote: pardoner ability is really useful to stop bandwagons of no substance truth be told. Or if mayor decides to kill someone who is suspected to be innocent/not who they say they will/total left field sort of thing. Alright. Is the pardoner informed of who the mayor is going to lynch day 1 if they mayor lies about it, or does the pardoner just say "i stop the mayors lynch"? | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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but they shouldn't be ignored completely | ||
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On February 14 2010 12:35 Malongo wrote: Is this a DEJA VU¿ Now centering on the important matters: So far there is just no plan on the table. I mean literally all the candidates for office are just proposing themselves. So im inclined to think l10f is actually a good man to be on the office. First of all he claimed blue. Second reason is more a personal choice but im just too bored to see the same guys always there: Ver, BC, Ace... we need some new blood, with the added benefit that he is more likely to misstep if he plays red. For the first lynch play i really oppose the general feeling that we should lynch an inactive. Im all in to kill a big name. Three that come inmediatly into my mind are: Caller. Half inactive up to now. Posted defending BC out of nowhere. L: Wanted to change his profile. Not really doing what he does in all games to benefit the town. BC: Already spotted by ver. In fact if you think about it most of the time we lynched an inactive first day we got a town side player. Just lynch someone in the big names. Considering it's the first day, pointing out someone as "suddenly active" is pretty stupid imo Also, L wanted to add to his profile because the game mod requested it but forgot his password? That's suspicious? | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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His accusation of bloodycobbler is based on a change in bc's posting strategy and not the loose and broad clues from Day 1. He's advocating keeping the clues in mind until they become effective later in the game: a reasonable assertion. I also think we should be using these clues to profile the mafia, rather than starting analytical arguments/trying to accuse anyone already. It seems a bit suspicious that L is already trying to paint Ace red based on the clues when all of the experienced players are saying that using day 1 clues to lynch/accuse is just stupid. Ace's posting style is a bit arrogant and aggressive for my tastes and I disagree that clues are essentially useless, but his point is fair. Clues, if anything, should be a helping point for our DT's and something used in the late-game | ||
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On February 14 2010 14:18 Faronel wrote: I think Ace was right... It's kind of a RISK like game with mini alliances where the town acts like a mafia family with kp of 1. There's definitely some intrigue here. So just to clear this up... we have 5 people contending for mayor? Ace, L, Citizen, l10f, meeple, and Ver. Right now everyone has 1 vote except for Ace and Ver who have 2 votes. Edit: So much "omg that's exactly what mafia would do!" b/w the L and Ace sides. I've of teh opinion that both are vets, so they wouldn't be making any noob mistakes in terms of a scumtell. But isn't it a bit early to be throwing around some wild accusations as "that's what mafia would do. He must be mafia". It seems the mayor vote is a bit of a lucky guess, because like in the last Incog mafia game, we have a mafia sheriff. We can only know so much about the candidates... and instead of throwing around accusations, focus on a plan for what happens are we have a mayor (like if we lynch the other runner or w/e). What did you edit? | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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On February 14 2010 17:16 L wrote: I agree partially. I don't think he's 'innocent', but i think there's enough divergence between the moonlight rider and him to have that clue stick to him. The connection to blindness, the moon, him jumping through walls, the instant death on impact all seem far weaker than the associated links elsewhere. The spear really was the thing that tipped me over the edge in terms of ruling him out. I'm wary of terms like exoneration, but pointing out where connections are stronger or weaker are helpful. Naturally the mafia will want to divert clue analysis toward weaker non-mafia connection. This is exactly what I did in the last mafia game and it was working fabulously until i was painted red and lynched. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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Pointing fingers without giving reasons to back it up doesn't help anyone. Don't just say "hey guys i think player a, b, c, and d are mafia, cya later!" | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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if that's a mistake and ur mafia that would be so hilarious | ||
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On February 14 2010 17:28 Bill Murray wrote: after reading your alls posts, it is actually sort of easy to put people into groups of "blind faith and teamwork" which would be associated with mafia. the only problem here is there seem to be multiple groups L Chezinu redtooth laaan zato-1 bloodycobbler ver L Mystlord fulgrim in my opinion are mafia, possibly not all in the same mafia, but that's my guess i also think that bloodycobbler is the other mafia godfather lol there are so many fucking things wrong with this post 1) you say there seem to be multiple groups and then list ONE group of players. Can you distinguish who you feel is grouped together and who is not? 2) No justification for any of your accusations, even though I agree with some of those players being suspicious 3) you really think you have figured out 10 mafia not even halfway through the first day? you have to be fucking kidding me. 4) "other mafia godfather" lol | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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if he is green, it just goes to show you need to pay attention to your word choice | ||
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when he wakes up hes gonna have a nice surprise | ||
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sorry i was a bit inactive today, i've been busy packing stuff here and there. i'll be able to be more active tomorrow | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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Bill Murray, at the very least give reasons as to why you think those people are mafia. Why do you refuse to justify your statements? Do you actually think it's helpful to come in and say "OH BTW THESE DUDES ARE MAFIA AND L IS DA GODFATHER AND BC IS THE OTHER FAMILIES GODFATHER, L8R" | ||
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On February 15 2010 04:04 dozko wrote: Right, finally got the time to read through all of the election campaigns. I will be posting all of the relative posts since I compiled them in a text file to look at anyway, hopefully I didnt miss anything. + Show Spoiler [ All candidatures] + NB: These are in chronological order. + Show Spoiler [BloodyC0bbler] + On February 14 2010 07:52 BloodyC0bbler wrote: As the game as begun, it is time to get it started. I, BloodyC0bbler, am running for the position of mayor. I believe the town can easily win this if we work together, as a concise unit, and do so before the mafia can create their own plans. Action must happen now. My campaign is on a platform of strength. I believe I have the strength to help pull this town together. I can analyze clues, behaviour, and can help guide blues to where they should act. The more we work together, the less we have to lose. The first lynch at the moment, as there is nothing to really go on, I believe is moot unless someone gives themself away obviously. Therefore I would lynch the most inactive player, or in the case of someone giving themself away, that person. Any other choice should be pardon'd instantly. Vote for unity, Vote for strength, Vote for bloodyc0bbler On February 14 2010 11:53 BloodyC0bbler wrote: A mayor should lynch someone who is inactive, or someone who is so obviously mafia that even their own family would sell them out. Aside from that, people start talking, more voting alllright. + Show Spoiler [Chezinu] + On February 14 2010 07:55 Chezinu wrote: I am running too!!! I always wanted to run for a position but either couldn't from inexperience or there wasn't ever one! VOTE FOR ME!!!!!! On February 14 2010 09:31 Chezinu wrote: Reason to vote me for mayor: If I was mafia: I will try to lynch the other competing mafia team and not focus on the town until we take care of our biggest threat. If I am town: I will end my insane talk and talk normally for the first time for I wouldn't have to dodge any reads. If I am either of above: I don't want to die... Tons of people already want me dead from previous games. Please don't spite... + Show Spoiler [L] + On February 14 2010 08:30 L wrote: 1) I've been trying to change my picture, but I need to find out my password. 2) I'll be running for mayor. 3) Ver's retarded and looking at clues is plenty helpful, especially since it lets you see who's pushing against who. Regardless, having people talking is better than having people not talking. Its far easier to let people be silent in a 50 man game than have them actively feign town interests. Proof? Pretty much every large game we've had. In the current game, a full 40% of people playing are mafia; while clues shouldn't be the only thing you have on someone, they should definitely play a part. Then again this is probably just my interpretation, given that I'm one of the only people who is responsible for a clue kill on day 1 or 2. + Show Spoiler [l10f] + On February 14 2010 09:06 l10f wrote: Hello fellow town members, I would like to run for mayor. And you should vote for me. I don't want to die on the first night like last time, and since my star is blue, that must mean I have a blue role! So everyone vote for me I also agree with Ver that we shouldn't be pointing fingers with one piece of information. We should wait till we have more, and if several clues point to one person, we have a better chance of catching the mafia. Well, everyone GL HF! On February 14 2010 09:45 l10f wrote: If I get elected mayor, I plan on lynching one of the mafia from the last game I played. On February 14 2010 13:20 l10f wrote: Hmm, it looks like I won't be getting the mayor spot so easily! How about this, if I am elected mayor, instead of going on my vengeful rampage and lynching the people responsible for my quick death last game, I will lynch CHEZINU. You want to vote me now, don't you? + Show Spoiler [BillMurray] + On February 14 2010 09:48 Bill Murray wrote: I am going to run for mayor. There are two people who will benifit from this election, and I want at least one of them (me) to help the town. If you vote for people other than me, you will not be happy I am promising guaranteed liberty, equality, and power. If I am elected, I will go with the majority, because I trust people will make the right decision overall and at least two groups of ten will be working for a separate goal. That leaves the remaining 31 to try and work to eliminate these groups in the correct numbers... this is deceptively hard. You can indirectly cause one Mafia to win if you offset their numbers inappropriately. The Pardoner could win the game for the town be pardoning a mafia member that is from a group that has less mafia than the other group. I doubt many of you will vote for me, but to be honest this is a mistake. Please vote for me if you want to save the town. + Show Spoiler [meeple] + On February 14 2010 09:57 meeple wrote: I'm going to run for an elected position again. Last time as mayor it turned out really well for the town and while obviously there was a concerted effort and I won't even attempt to take credit for that, I think having an active and coherent mayor/sheriff is crucial to the town's success. So vote for me! + Show Spoiler [DoctorHelvetica] + On February 14 2010 10:09 DoctorHelvetica wrote: I'll be running for mayor/pardoner. It's always nice to have a special role, makes the game more interesting. If I am mayor, I will lynch whoever the town wants me to lynch and use my votes the way the town wants them used unless I strongly feel the town consensus is wrong, in which case I will do my best to justify my vote. I don't really like the pardoner power to be honest, I guess I would only use it to save someone who I suspected/knew was blue or under some sort of special circumstance. My limited experience hurts me here, but can any more experienced players let me in on what kind of pro-town role the pardoner really holds? On February 14 2010 13:44 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Ver has been the most sensible so far imo His accusation of bloodycobbler is based on a change in bc's posting strategy and not the loose and broad clues from Day 1. He's advocating keeping the clues in mind until they become effective later in the game: a reasonable assertion. On February 14 2010 14:10 DoctorHelvetica wrote: If I were elected, I'd probably lynch Bloodycobbler. The accusations against him are at least based on posting behavior and referenced through other mafia games + Show Spoiler [MasterDana] + On February 14 2010 10:34 MasterDana wrote: I'll run for mayor too! I think I'm a pretty nice guy and can do nice things! <: + Show Spoiler [Ace] + On February 14 2010 11:45 Ace wrote: Ok, the KingPin has arrived. Time to stop this nonsense and get this game started. First of all, I'm going to be brutally honest here. Some of you playing are newbies. That isn't to say you're bad, but more so that you haven't had the experience of playing a true cut throat game of Mafia. The last 2 games were honestly so bland - aka too much talking about clues, that it wasn't really that much high level strategy going on. Like Ver said, talking too much about clues early is USELESS. Don't try to convince anyone that someone is Mafia based on clues for the first few days. It's nice to mention it, but do not make it a central point of focus. MTF and Camlito are the best 2 clue analyzers along with Plexa that we ever had. That was in Mafia 2 and it took a ton of planning + input from various people to even come to some of those conclusions. Chances are you won't be able to do much with clues this game unless you've got some additional proof. What I mean by this is catch someone on behavior analysis + clues + shoddy voting or motives. Saying "this clue points to Ace" is just stupid. Knowing this, I'm not surprised LL and Zato -1 are already accusing me. Look people, especially for you new players - I'm one of the biggest targets in any Mafia game. Every time. I'm super valuable. I catch people in lies all the time and I always save townies from the obvious bandwagon deaths. L and Zato may not have blatantly accused me but they just planted a seed of suspicion on me of all people, based on some wild clues. Be very wary of light weight accusations like this. I'm running for Mayor of course. But in the event I don't win, my vote is possibly going to Ver. The only reason I might not vote for him is because he has elected to kill BC which is just as bad as L/Zato wanting me dead. Our most valuable players should be saved unless it's blatantly obvious they are Mafia. There are 3 teams this game, don't even bother trying to murder all of our good players so soon. + Show Spoiler [citi.zen] + On February 14 2010 13:17 citi.zen wrote: So many pages of text in just a few hours - this is going to be crazy! At any rate, to the business of the day we go: 1. I will run for office. If you did not follow Incognito's last game, click here for my quals. No fancy slogans or banners. All I can tell you is that, as a rule, I trust nobody, regardless of previous game history or in-game behavior. As an example, in my last game, I kept a vigilante on call just in case meeple (the mayor) was red. At that point we had a single unidentified mafia alive and 11 townies (I think). Furthermore, meeple had already been of great help catching many of the mafia. Still, I had no way of knowing 100% that this wasn't all some devious mafia plot, so I kept the vigilante hit available. This is how I play. 2. I don't agree with Ver/Ace's contention that analyzing clues helps the mafia. Don't get me wrong, I do think it will probably not lead to correct lynches on days 1 or 2, but it will force the mafia to leave a paper trail and provide us with mid-game behavioral clues. Recognizing that was a somewhat atypical experience, that thick paper trail helped a lot in the last game. An example from this thread: the exchange between L and Ace could be very useful at some point. The conversation started from L talking about clues. That small "hook" created juicy thread. So analyze/talk/argue away I say. + Show Spoiler [Ver] + On February 14 2010 20:14 Ver wrote: Excellent. A bunch of things to cover. This thread is exploding as fast as Qatol's game. Hopefully it doesn't turn into that quagmire. 1) Bill Murray is looking very innocent to me, based on his reaction. It's the same type of scenario that those who played in Incognito's game saw with t_co, who ended up townie. 2) Clues. It's natural that new players are obsessed with clues. They seem more reliable. Clue analysis and behavior analysis are both very difficult at first, behavior slightly more so though again only Camlito and MTF have gotten people on clues in more than 1 game. To new players, behavior seems much more sketchy, so these responses are natural.. I think nearly all of the people who are crazy about clues are both more than likely innocent and simply haven't seen the terrifying power that good analysis skills can do. For an example see here chuius game 5 (despite what may be posted in the thread nobody was actually gotten on clues, that's just a coverup for reasons I don't want to go into). This game was the best town performance ever, and it went like this (7/8 mafia on lynches) because all of the best analysts and planners were on the town's side. We had 2 mafia confirmed by day 1 along with probably 15 innocents and several power roles, and several more mafia outted by day 2. That is NEVER going to happen with clues. Because the thing with clues is that you cannot know if someone is innocent. Analysis can do that. Exactly why I'm calling Bill Murray innocent. If you want to support using clues this early, then you better provide good support for it and not some lazy gibberish (like L has been doing, this is good). Just posting 'i think clues this early are still useful' with no support means absolutely nothing and doesn't help us learn anything about you. Remember as an innocent, part of your job is to find mafia. The other part is to make your innocence clear. 3) Running for Mayor. As all the vets know, I hate being in the spotlight, it's too time taxing. I ran for mayor awhile back as part of an elaborate plan and I ended up going insane because I was getting 60+ pm's a day. So my decision to run for mayor is basically, do I want to even possibly subject myself to that again (as it will affect my performance), or do I take the risk of letting another mafia get into power? And perhaps just as importantly, do I risk trusting the medics to keep me alive (hasn't worked in the past lol). I know I'm going to take hits because red blood will fly. Of course the ideal solution is that I become mayor/pardoner and I stick in the shadows without being bombarbed by half the town every day. You guys okay with that? I simply don't have the time to be answering that many pm's plus doing in depth analysis on a bunch of mafia. My plan is still under construction, not enough time yet to fully get something together. Until that plan is finalized I'll simply try to keep the town on the right track and to get people talking about suspects, because a lot of people are being very suspicious so far. More coming shortly. Okay, so here are my thoughts on the candidates: The most obvious thing first: MasterDana's nonexistent campaign and 2 liner post doesnt show any brain activity/ commitment to the role. I think either of these are pretty self-explanatory as to why we shouldnt elect him. meeple's main arguments are that he played a game where he was elected and the game turned out well for the town. Significant? I think not. BillMurray: "guaranteed liberty"??? Presents some vague clarifications of the game structure and concludes that not voting for him will be a mistake. Well if it was surely you would want to lay out a more coherent campaign convincing us of your special traits or plan. So basically not selling yourself and then blaming people for not voting for you is your fault not theirs. Also there was an incident with him last game so IMO enough responsibility for him. Chezinu: far too weird whats the point of writing gibberish all the time? I find myself subconsciously skipping over his posts and have to really concentrate to read them just for the sake of completeness. l10f: Dont like his campaign motivation plus his first voting decisions are very erratic and irrational. The others I think are all decent candidatures but I find myself disagreeing with some of the stuff. First of all I dont think DrH is a good pick, purely because the "i will lynch whoever the town wants to lycnh" sounds spinelessness to me. Also I dont like how he doesnt present a concrete target himself but agrees with another candidate (BC) on who to lynch, when he should be competing instead. Why should I vote for him rather than that BC in this case? Secondly the thing I dont like so much about citi.zen is that he has established quite a lot of credibility with people playing in Incognito's last game. Sure he did good but he was helped out by some rather unforeseen events and his blues quite a lot. So given this if he turns out to be scum loads of townies will go along with him purely because he played a good townie last game. I.e. there is a risk of the majority accepting his viewpoints not because they have thought it through but because he played well last game and hes a mayor in this game so he must be trustworthy. I dont want to vote for either L or Ace, not because I see anything suspicious about them right now, but purely because not having either of them immune to rolechecks is a good thing. Basically DTs should verify the high profile vets first, since a) The mob is likely to put forward a proven good player and not some lowlife scrub who gains no credibility by himself and b) establishing such a player as a green gives a good foundation on which to build the "circle of trust", and if they are red then their big paper trail will again be useful. This reasoning I think can be applied to BC and Ver as well, since Ver accused BC who basically said whatever. So I think our DTs going for rolechecks on these high rollers first will benefit us in the long run and so we should keep them out of immunity. So based on all of this my conclusion is that I find myself unable to put my finger on someone who I strongly trust. However I think that in all mafia games, indecision along with inactivity are the worst things that can happen. Therefore I will vote for citi.zen purely because I think that the above concerns I had can be rectified if one always keeps his "perceived trustworthiness" in mind when doing analysis. I gave solid positions on lynchings , I said my target for the day 1 lynch would be BloodyCobbler but I changed to Bill Murray after his ridiculous posts and "other mafia" slip-up. I don't buy his defense.IF anything, this shows that I'm objective and will always go after who is most suspicious at a given time, even if that role changes. | ||
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Chezinu: Voted for BloodyCobbler, changed vote to citi.zen, changed vote again to Redtooth, changed back to citi.zen laaan: Abstained, changed to L Malongo: Voted for l10f with the message "Dont be a pussy, this guy seems legit." sidesprang: Abstained Bill Murray: Voted for meeple, changed to Ver DoctorHelvetica: Voted for l10f, changed vote to citi.zen BloodyCobbler: Voted for Ver Caller: Voted for Ace Abenson: Abstained, changed vote to Ace Fulgrim: Voted for Ver Fishball: Voted for citi.zen l10f: Abstained Faronel: Voted for citi.zen redtooth: Abstained Ace: Abstained Mystlord: Abstained MasterDana: Voted for citi.zen Ver: Abstained Nikoner: Abstained ~OpZ~: Voted for L Amber[LighT]: Voted for Ver madnessman: Voted for L dozko: Voted for citi.zen this is from my notes ;o | ||
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I'll share my findings when I'm done. | ||
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is not reasoning | ||
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ok that's completely ridiculous rofl you couldn't even begin to justify that. | ||
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On February 15 2010 06:39 Bill Murray wrote: L is arguing like mafia oh look, another radical statement with ZERO reasoning behind it. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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On February 15 2010 07:12 Zato-1 wrote: I think you're missing one part of the equation, L. I have to thank Ver for this: Look at the other side of the coin: What should the mafia families do? Recently, there was a game in which DoctorHelvetica put on a pretty good performance as a Godfather pretending to be an active Town member. Now, ask yourselves this: would the mafia want to do such a thing in this game? No. In a standard game, mafia loses if the Town lynches them properly, so they have to try to get townies to lynch each other. In this game, Town lynches have got to be the last thing on a mafia family's mind. The real danger to them is in the other mafia family's KP, so it's really a no-brainer to try to get under the radar and have their counterparts waste as many hits on Town targets as possible. Mafia members get so little benefit from misdirecting the Town on that one lynch they have, and it's so much effort to even get the Town to follow your lead, that it's just not worth it. Let the Town play its own little game- maybe they'll lynch a Gambino, maybe they'll lynch a Sumiyoshi, maybe they'll lynch a Town member. Who cares? Participating actively won't particularly help mafia members unearth the identities of their real targets, and will definitely make themselves appear on the radar for the rival family. Best-case scenario, enemy family members are among the high-profile posters and you can take some out. Worst-case scenario, they're also lurking, in which case both mafia families will kill people randomly and a lot of Town members get killed. So yeah, this goes for the rest of the Town as well as for both mafia families lurking around: You want to find tasty mafia targets to kill? Take a good, long look at those who are inactive / making short, inane posts. Mystlord was godfather, not me ;o I agree. The mafia will be hiding in the drama giving forth weak opinions. By agreeing with active townies, saying things that have already been said, it's easy to seem active without actually contributing anything. I'm guilty of this but that's only because I was very busy yesterday. I have a big post coming up. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
Argument Compilation Anything listed in red is an objectively untrue statement or something I find completely ridiculous. I didn't list a lot of redundant arguments for the sake of time, but I got mostly everything. I've changed my mind a bit after going back and really scrutinizing every post. I suggest everyone do the same, you'd be surprised what bad conclusions you may have come to because you weren't really thinking. I blame my lack of focus yesterday due to packing up my room and playing video games while half-assedly browsing the mafia thread, but from now on I'm on full alert ;o I will post another update to this when I feel it's relevant. KEEP IN MIND THAT I DID NOT COMPILE ARGUMENTS FROM PAGE 24 OR BEYOND BloodyC0bbler + Show Spoiler + Argues that people should vote him for mayor because he is a strong player who can guide the town. I don't need to offer a strategy for the town to be mayor. l10f has done nothing to get people to vote for him, anyone who votes for him is suspicious. Don't use previous games to justify actions in this one. If L is mafia he wants Ace dead because Ace is another mafia or a strong townie. Ver + Show Spoiler + Discussing clues too much on the first day helps the mafia, Day 1 clues are very vague and shouldn't be taken seriously until later. Posting behavior isn't very easy to lynch people off of unless they make bad mistakes. We need to have a plan for the elected/blue roles and gather as much information as possible. Don't hide your thoughts. Post whatever, the more active people are the harder it is for mafia to hide. Instead of making immediate accusations based on clues, build clue profiles that grow stronger over time. Primary suspect is BloodyC0bbler due to a change in posting behavior. L + Show Spoiler + Looking at clues is very helpful, even on Day 1 because the clues are very good this time around. The clues very clearly point toward Ace as being mafia. Ace is discouraging clue analysis because he knows it will kill him. We can't afford to waste any lynches. Clues will help the mafia kill eachother for the benefit of the town. Ace needs to provide an alternative person to fit the day 1 clues. Ace is mafia because he refuses to analyze the clues and provide an alternative even though he is "innocent" The majority of anything people discuss lead to innocent deaths. Discussion still needs to happen and will tell us who is active and who isn't. Don't treat this game like a large 1 mafia game. Clues will be very important here. There isn't necessarily a clear clue division between the two families. The clues pointing to Ace are specific and very clear, not at all a stretch. It isn't likely that clues will grow stronger over time due to the sheer amount of mafia in this game. Don't make useless posts. People should listen to my clue analysis because I am very good at it. Town can't waste time due to KP disparity. Saying Ace is innocent because Incog wants him alive makes it too easy to twist clues. Mafia might have several good/veteran players. People look more innocent if herring clues apply to them. If Ace is red, Malongo probably is too. Don't be scared to kill a good player on day 1. I'm not trying to force Ace to die, I'm trying to analyze the clues. Offer an alternative fit if you want to turn away suspicion. I don't want Ace dead, I want the moonlight rider dead. Zato-1 + Show Spoiler + The Horsemen are on a different team from the torch thrower, the psychopath is on a different team from the angel. There may come a time when we may need to help one mafia family survive over another. The clue connection to Ace is strong, but perhaps not strong enough. Ace needs to argue against the clues, not the people analyzing them. Our job as town is to direct the mafia into killing eachother. It seems redtooth has an ulterior motive for defending Ace. laaan + Show Spoiler + Clues promote discussion which helps the town. There is a possibility that BloodyCobbler's profile fits the clues. Town should focus on keeping good players alive while the mafia kill eachother. Mafia will want the pardoner role. l10f + Show Spoiler + We shouldn't point fingers until later days. If I am elected, I will lynch someone who was previously mafia. Chezinu is mafia and I will lynch him if I'm mayor. DoctorHelvetica + Show Spoiler + Let's not make accusations based on clues until later. Worry about the mayor lynch. Agrees with Ver that clue profiling will be very helpful. Don't lynch Day 1 based on clues, they're useful later. BloodyCobbler should be lynched because the accusations on him are based on posting behavior and inconsistency. Use clues to help DT's and the town in the late-game. Malongo + Show Spoiler + We need a protected DT. Disagrees with Ver, even a wrong or fake analysis can help us. l10f should be mayor because he claimed blue l10f never roleclaimed a blue role Caller, L, and BC are mafia Caller. Half inactive up to now. Posted defending BC out of nowhere. L: Wanted to change his profile. Not really doing what he does in all games to benefit the town. BC: Already spotted by ver. meeple + Show Spoiler + Clues will be very important here. The accusation on BloodyCobbler is too weak to lynch him. Town should focus on surviving and hunting mafia Mystlord + Show Spoiler + We shouldn't lynch on clues before Day 3. Clues are mostly a vehicle for potentially incriminating discussion. Don't lynch Chezinu Day 1 arbitrarily. We need a mayor who is uninvolved in this drama. Using information from past games isn't helpful. Caller + Show Spoiler + BloodyCobbler will be such a helpful townie that he's a poor choice for a Day 1 lynch. Don't lynch strong players without good reason. d3_crescentia + Show Spoiler + Don't lynch strong players without good reason. Clues need to be strong in this game, we shouldn't ignore Day 1 clues because there are so many mafia. We need to keep in mind how the dynamic shifts due to there being 2 mafia. Abenson + Show Spoiler + Lynching someone based on posts hurts on the first day. Focus on the elections Ace + Show Spoiler + Talking about clues early is useless, they are useful later. I'm being targeted by L and Zato because I'm a good pro-town player. (Implies L and Zat are mafia) Be wary of light/ungrounded accusations. Don't lynch strong players unless it is obvious they are mafia. Blindly pointing fingers is bad no matter what. Clues are subjective, not objective. Never rely on clues. I refuse to provide an alternative because I don't want to point fingers at anyone. Clues are useful only when processed through DT's. I can't be mafia because if I acted differently than in previous games everyone would notice and lynch me instantly. I won't argue about clue analysis because it is subjective. I can debate whether they are valid because that is objective. Clue discussion leads to innocent death. Don't think of this as 1v1v1, this game is about temporary allegiances as the mafia try to kill eachother. L is trying to turn the town against me. Very few people actually doubt me as pro-town. L is trying to force my death and if I'm green/blue, he's definitely red. Redtooth + Show Spoiler + Day 1 clue analysis is useless. Don't post distracting things. Ace is right. Clue analysis is the last thing we need right now. The winning mayor should lynch a veteran mayor candidate. BloodyCobbler is suspicious. Mafia will have one person running for mayor at least. The clues pointing toward Ace are a stretch. We will never have a good Day 1 analysis. Incognito wouldn't make obvious clues point to Ace, even if Ace was mafia. Ace plays aggressive whether he is mafia or town, attacking his argument style is useless. An alliance between mafia will be terrible for the town. I agree that we will probably never see 2 sets of clues on 1 mafia. If Ace was mafia, incognito wants him alive. Ace is innocent because the clues point to him. There have been no mafia accusations between L and Ace up until now. -Untrue. L directly said "I think you're red" to Ace before this post, Ace also implied Zato/L were mafia in his first post although he didn't directly accuse them L is upset about the last game in which he was mafia which is why he wants Ace dead. Ace isn't necessarily innocent, the clues just don't point to him. Clue analysis on day 1 is trash. Dozko + Show Spoiler + Disagrees with Ace: Behavioral analysis is much more subjective than clues. All we have are Day 1 clues, we shouldn't ignore them. Chezinu + Show Spoiler + Day 1 clues are good to start discussion. Use clues to accuse people even if you don't really suspect them, then analyze their reaction. I should be mayor because I am untrustworthy. There is no such thing as a wasted post. Don't kill me. What people say in public isn't necessarily what they actually think. Hobbes + Show Spoiler + By lynching active posters with clues pointing toward them, we gain a lot of helpful information. It isn't a bad idea to lynch Ace. Just because a player is good doesn't mean they are sacrosanct. The bolded spoilers are very important as they will shine a lot of light on the argument between Ace/L/Redtooth. After reading through the thread more closely, I believe clue analysis is a lot more important than I first though. The clues are much stronger and L's point about clue profiling being mostly useless because of the large number of mafia is a very good one. L has been consistent and well-spoken in his arguments. Ace/Redtooth have been a bit inconsistent and too personal. Saying things like "L is obviously upset about this previous game" doesn't help anything and is just worthless speculation that distracts from the real argument. Ace's refusal to provide an alternative fit cannot be ignored. L did imply that Ace was butthurt about a previous game and I do hold that against him, unless he has some sort of strategical reason for doing so (such as trying to provoke a specific reaction) Read through this and make what you will of it! Keep in mind newer arguments (Page 24 onward) aren't posted here. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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DoctorHelvetica
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l10f never said "I am blue" he said "I want to be blue" very different | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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and you pretty much said day 1 clue analysis was trash no matter what, you're toning it way down now. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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??? | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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sorry for not seeing the bigger picture you're expertly crafting here, lol | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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You're still dodging the fact that you have provided no basis for any of your accusations. I'm still most interested to hear your justification for your previous mafia accusations. I wasn't even arguing with you or attacking you about the mad hatter thing lol I do disagree that L is "too egocentric" for the town. Better a confident player who knows what they are doing than a sheep with no direction for mayor. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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i already said im not concerned about the mad hatter issue, stop dodging the real issue | ||
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A VERY IMPORTANT POINT THAT HAS BEEN IGNORED or, why I now agree with L Initially I made the mistake of strategizing as I would in a game with 1 mafia family against 1 town and a relatively small number of mafia (say 8 or less) I agreed with Ver thinking "clue analysis will become stronger as clue profiles build on mafia." I know that in Incognitos last game, he used a set order of clues. The first day was myself and keit, then derfboy, phrujbaz, etc. etc. Eventually it repeated and went back to keit, this made the clues on him much stronger. By about the 3rd or 4th day, the town now had a much stronger clue profile on a single mafia and the town could have lynched him a bit more securely. In this game, there are 20 mafia. I assume kills will overlap (meaning Mafia and Yakuza both hit the same target) and medics will eventually do their thing, meaning we might not even get 6 clues a day. If there were exactly 6 kills a night, by the 4th day we would have a "clue profile" with multiple clue sets on a single mafia member. Either we ignore clues completely because of this, or we start analyzing them from Day 1 onward. Unless of course, Incognito decides not to go in a specific order, meaning that we might get multiple clues on a single mafia very early and much more often. But I think that is unlikely. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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On February 15 2010 08:51 Bill Murray wrote: i was just making a funny reference to family guy i guess you all don't watch that show DH, you want me to list why i posted the people i posted? yes. you should have done that in the first place making statements without justifying them is useless | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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On February 15 2010 08:58 Bill Murray wrote: Chezinu - voting history, erratic behavior, seems to know more than a normal townie should redtooth - blindly supports L, take it back, supports him again, backlashes for my lynching laaan - voting for L, being too lazy to do anything to help the town, zato-1 - wanting to get rid of ace for no apparent reason bloodycobbler - as per previous analysis regarding posting behavior ver - was probably a mistake, but because he ROLECLAIMEDto me in PM L - wanting to get rid of ace for no apparent reason Mystlord - seems to be acting the same way from last game i'd like to eliminate fulgrim from this list. also, what's citi.zen been doing? he's been a lot less inactive than last game. i wouldn't be too worried about this if he didn't have so many votes. laaan, after looking through everyones arguments had a bit more to say than other semi-active players. If people thought if you flip red that ace is mafia were lacking any confidence, this post should end that. BM accuses Zato and L for accusing Ace of being mafia for "no apparent reason." Go back and read my argument compilation and you will see there are multiple and good reasons for them pointing at Ace as a potential mafia. I also think the wording "wanting to get rid of ace" is very interesting. It is the exact same wording that Ace and redtooth have used in defense. It isn't much but it might suggest some synergy between the players. If Bill Murray flips green, then that just means he isn't really reading the arguments. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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On February 15 2010 09:02 BloodyC0bbler wrote: It is an important point. However, as someone who likes clue analyzing. Let me give you an example of day 1 clues should be done. Discussed (yay) but don't actively lynch someone based off of it, its not reliable. You need time to build your profiles of people. Day 1 clues start the process of building mafia profiles. You can usually easy pin in family games, which family is responsible for which killings. You then label them mafia family A, and mafia family B. As clues are given, you put themes under each mafia heading. The more time that goes by, the more you have, the better your chances of linking to someone. Using day 1 clues, you have things that are red herrings, as well as some things that are clues. I enjoy seeing L looking at them, but he looks more like hes pushing to get ace lynched than actually look at the clues. The whole theme of horsemen (at the moment to me) is moot. Things like darkness, or moonlight/blinding, could indeed be clues. However, without more days worth of clues, its harder to know if it is or not. Its why Camlito and MTF post very little analysis until they have solid leads. Until then its wild speculation. Chances are that incog will just link more than 3 members of a family per night, or hell, we are getting 6 mafia per night in clues anyway, we could get really lucky on one of them later, or he could reuse one from day 1 in day 2, etc... Day 1 clues are deff important, but moreso down the line than now. My argument is that it will take so long to build clue profiles that it will become useless. Doing things like seperating killers into families is all well and good though. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On February 15 2010 09:04 meeple wrote: Chez - erratic behavior doesn't always lead to red, and can give an example of when he seems to know more than he should? laaan - being too lazy to help the town doesn't mean he's red... since that would mean there are like 25 red inactives sitting in the bleachers. Zato-1 - has stated that he thinks the clues point to Ace... so there is an apparent reason BC - Not sure why people keep coming to this... he very well might be red, but I don't think there's a correlation between his candidacy posts and him being red, for me it seems like a forced connection. Ver - Roleclaiming is really odd, but he might be messing with you, unless he explains why he trusts you. L - same with the other guy... its clear they're both basing their accusations on clues Mystlord - Not really enough to say for sure, but in addition to his profile pic that could be linked to the arsonist and moon references it might be slightly more suspicious than your average joe. People fall back on BC because he is acting differently than he usually does when he is a pro-town role in mafia games, a strong indicator that he may be mafia. I'd like to see what an experienced player like Ace/L/Ver has to say about his posting behavior now, he seems to be taking it a bit more seriously. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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----------------------------------------- Original Message: dude, im fucking green, you're really making me mad seriously, if you want me to be friendly with you ever again on these message boards, you will leave me alone. i am green unless i'm the miller. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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On February 15 2010 09:09 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Thing is, in a game with this many killers, for all we know, incog could be going 4-5 members a family in clue sets, or he could be doing one per kill, etc... As people die off you also get a good indicator of whos red so on and so forth. Its not a fast process in clues, it never is. Over analyzing things like L is, can pay off for sure, but it can also create bandwagons that off us faster. The greatest thing it has done so far this game is get alot of people talking, and which has given us alot of insight into peoples behaviour If it follows the format of the day 1 post, it's going to be 1 person per kill. We can't just assume that "oh maybe he will repeat the same person in a short amount of time." either we bullshit around clue analysis because maybe clue profiling will work out, or we find out the hard way that there is no "clue profile" until day 4 or 5, maybe even 6 if there are a lot of overlapping hits/useful medics | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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Also, L asserted that the connection to Empyrean was very strong. He hasn't had to push that because everyone pretty much accepted it right off the bat. It seems like this "vendetta" if very much a constructed falsehood that is really just distracting people from the issue of why L is accusing Ace in the first place. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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On February 15 2010 09:32 meeple wrote: I sorta agree... I got caught in this type of trap myself, where I so firmly beleived in tredmasta's guilt based on what I thought was a strong clue and it turned out he was a vigilante. I see the clue connection, but I'm wary of the level of conviction you have in it. As mafia in the previous game, I was aware who that clue referred to, but I was surprised you thought tredmasta was a stronger connection than flamewheel91. But L has said many times he is perfectly willing to consider alternatives. Ace's aggressive defense, redtooth's inconsistent and in one case completely incorrect arguments, and Ace's refusal to refute the central point of L's accusation doesn't exactly help out. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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On February 15 2010 09:35 Nikoner wrote: Also, before I go to sleep, Phrujbaz is mafia. ughhhh justify plzzzzz | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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On February 15 2010 09:37 [NyC]HoBbes wrote: He's not serious. Nikoner said the same thing last game, if I remember correctly they have an SC rivalry... oh i see lol | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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On February 15 2010 09:41 L wrote: We shouldn't lynch the most talked about connection; we should lynch the most certain connection. These are two different things. I don't give a shit if someone doesn't reply if the weight of the evidence against them is overwhelming. The only thing your suggestion does is allow people the option of ignoring a topic instead of dealing with it, which is VERY, VERY bad. Do you feel the connection is stronger to Ace or Empyrean? I feel it's stronger to Empyrean because no one else could possibly fit the clue profile it seems. Multiple players could fit the killer you have said is Ace, even if they don't fit it as well. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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On February 15 2010 09:43 BloodyC0bbler wrote: That screams out behaviourally that he is red  . He stand a very high chance of being mafia, and your point there is more reason to lynch him to me than the clues. My reasoning for wanting to avoid day 1 clues for now is basically this. Say we red herring someone, they die and flip townie, the persons defense will be "whoops my bad day 1 clues" If he does get a red (note this could be a lucky guess or an actual link, we wont know for certain unless those "links" disappear from future posts) the town will have a sense of trust in the person that isn't neccesarily earned. Its luck. Lynching someone off a list of inactives, or inactives that fit the themes of mafia's we have established does two things. It removes someone from a list who was considered red, It removes someone who isn't contributing and helps prevent mafia from hiding among inactives. I am all for lynching someone day 1 based off behaviour, and would say that you can make strong cases based off clue accusations on why you should lynch someone (reactions tell alot). Just lynching off of day 1 clues for the seemingly strongest connection seems strained. I don't understand your reply, does "he" refer to L or Ace and everything from "your point" onward seems like it's missing a few words | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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Ace's arguments are circular and a bit irrational. L is keeping it objective and focusing the attention on what matters, the clue analysis. Ace is trying to divert attention away from that and making unnecessary personal attacks on L. Suspicious behavior. I'm more certain that Ace is mafia at this point than Bill Murray and if I am elected, I will lynch Ace. Bill Murray is the "safe" choice, but if he flips green we learn nothing. If he flips red, Ace/redtooth are suspicious imo, but we learn absolutely nothing if he was green other than he played badly yet again. Considering his play in the last game, it now seems more likely that he is just a bad townie. That "other mafia godfather" was initially very incriminating, but after discussing with him in PM and arguing with him a bit I don't think he's mafia at all. If he was, he'd have no reason to get angry and flame me in PM unless he is literally the worst mafia player ever. If Ace is green we get a lot more information. Personally I don't feel it would make L suspect because his accusations against him were all based on the clues, but we may be able to cross a lot of potential mafia off of our list. If he is red, Bill Murray, redtooth, and people who just immediately voted for him/defended him without thinking about the arguments would fall under some degree of suspicion. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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On February 15 2010 09:52 Foolishness wrote: Okay people lets consider a few important ideas that are often overlooked that need to be taken into account soon. There is absolutely zero reason to vote for Ver. We all know what happened last time he ran for office, I will summarize for those who are unfamiliar: Ver: "waaa waaa I hate my life soooo many people PMing me waaa waaaa Ace Ace L Ace waa waaa please modkill me waaaa" Point being, if you are town there is no reason to want Ver in office. If Ver is on the town side, he's only going to rage quit in two days. If Ver is mafia, you don't want a mafia in office. Don't elect someone who is going to cop out a third of the way through the game. At any rate, he has only half-heartedly made a campaign for office, I don't think he even wants to be elected anyways. Lots of people in the thread have been reinforcing their arguments with players' behavior in past games. Well, Ver's behavior in past games when he is elected is to rage quit. If you are one of these people that uses arguments like these, don't vote for Ver. As I am sure someone else will do it, there seems to me to be a boatload of people who have yet to post or who have only made one or two posts (worthless posts might I add, for example OH HI IM HERE IMMA GO READ THE THREAD AND CATCH UP). As it has been correctly pointed out before, the mafia is going to be hiding among these inactive people. We have seen clearly in past games how the town goes ballistic killing itself while the mafia sits back and laughs. Lets make sure we keep track of all these people not contributing. Okay, anyone who thinks we should kill Bill Murray is a complete idiot. Yes, that means you redtooth and DoctorHelvetica. And also laaan although you haven't explicitly said anything. Even BM pointed out that if he was mafia, he'd have other mafia members telling him what to post and how to do it. He is obviously way too incompetent where that would be the case this game. Furthermore, there are a bunch of inactive people, if he was mafia, I'm sure he'd be sitting right in that pool. Remember guys, this is online mafia on teamliquid. This means that the teams are stacked for balancing issues (in other words, mafia members are not chosen at random). In a previous game where all of the veteran players where on the townside, the mafia got raped hard. With the addition of two mafia families, we can be reasonably sure that at least one, probably a few, of the veterans is mafia. While L's posts are almost all worth ignoring, he wants to kill Ace, who is a veteran, and thus we have to slog through his nonsensical posting. But killing off Ace is definitely something the town should highly consider. Perhaps you think Ace is too godly to kill off yet. If so, Ver has good analysis of BC, of which should be considered. Remember guys, a veteran on the mafia side is a huge threat. They have the power to organize the mafia to victory. A mafia without a veteran is relatively helpless. On the contrast, the town can make do without a veteran. In fact, lots of times veterans hurt the town more than they help (I could site numerous examples, but I'm sure you all know). It's really easy for a novice player to step up as a green/blue and lead the town to victory. Heck I have nearly pulled this feat off in my first two games when I correctly found over 50% of the mafia. And I definitely pulled it off without any so called "veterans". It's clear that killing veterans is the right course of action as we could potentially deal a substantial blow to the mafia. Considering Bill Murrays hotheaded attitude and erratic behavior in the previous game, I wouldn't be surprised if he posted without mafia direction. Besides, "oh i wouldnt do this if i was mafia dohohoho so i must be a townie" arguments are pretty weak. Bill Murray isn't my #1 suspect anyway. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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DoctorHelvetica
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On February 15 2010 10:02 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Where else is there to go? @789 | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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then ur not playin 4 real | ||
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On February 15 2010 10:11 meeple wrote: I listen to Tom Waits... if that dude doesn't put you in a sombre mood that's good for thinking, then nothing will. was just listening to this lol + Show Spoiler + | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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On February 15 2010 10:14 789 wrote: Well, as I said the 2 school of thought look like go for inactives or go for veteran players. If we go for inactives, we could combine that with clues and go for EMP... that seems to be the best way to go if we go after an inactive to me. As for veterans .. I don't personally have a leading candidate in mind there myself. Some of the stuff going on with accusations and stuff seems to be pre-existing grudges from other games. Lynching Empyrean gives us no information. Although the clue connection is solid, Ace has a strong clue AND behavioral connection imo and we learn a lot depending on how he flips. It has nothing to do with if he's a veteran or not. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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On February 15 2010 10:15 SugiuraMidori wrote: Ver BloodyC0bbler DoctorHelvetica -M? --Just a lot of useless posts that worship the word of Ver MasterDana johnnyspazz -M? --What Malongo said, and I tend to agree. Ace citi.zen Vivi57 Empyrean LucasWoJ XeliN Amber[Light] Fishball QuickStriker 789 dozko Nikoner tree.hugger ShoCkeyy Zato-1 - M1 Fulgrim meeple Chezinu Scamp d3_crescentia L Zona Iaaan ~OpZ~ sidesprang Shikyo Caller ohN Abenson nemY Mystlord redtooth CynanMachae Phrujbaz tredmasta SugiuraMidori Bill Murray iNfuNdiBuLuM [NyC]HoBbes Versatile Faronel Malongo decafchicken l10f Foolishness madnessman ______________________________________________ Keep in mind, I refuse to label anyone as blue, so green can be green or blue! If they have no color.. I have yet to figure them out! If they are underlined.. they made at least 3 posts.. or a combined posting of about 100 words. Bold indicates any comments I made. Also refer to quotes below. Italic can be saved for something else... not sure yet, will prolly be those that abstain from a vote. Relevant Quotes: Indicates he's with S and doesn't want to lose. Wants G gone. Followed by: I got really sick and tired reading a dozen pages ago... this is really too damn much for me to deal with while trying to pass my last semester of college... I'll contribute what I can, but I'm not going to waste my time reading all the useless repetitive and often just word-worshiping that is going on here.... once some people die off and stop being pointless and repetitive I'll keep up. I also refuse to read blatant flaming or other posts with curse words or just stupid biased finger pointing without logical reasoning behind it. [flame flame flame] DrH.. you got the writer symbol.. be original, stop worshiping Ver... jeez. Ver/L/Ace... stop being redundant and pointless by posting and reposting rules and crap.. if they can't read, let the newbies suffer.. or they can ask mods.. not a hard concept. [/flame flame flame] I got the writer symbol, be original, stop worshipping ver. Have you read the last few pages. I explained at length why i initially agreed with ver and why I changed my mind. I guess you haven't read past page 30, so maybe you aren't in the best place to be pointing fingers. A lot of useless posts? Maybe you don't think so, but I think I've been pretty useful insofar as documenting peoples arguments and points. johnnyspazz's quote isn't really even remotely incriminating. IRL things do come up, that isn't enough to immediatly paint someone red imo | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
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On February 15 2010 10:20 meeple wrote: Just to be clear, what does this refer to? SM's post | ||
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On February 15 2010 10:27 SugiuraMidori wrote: Correct, I got sick and tired of reading trash after half the pages of the content after the start of the game with the day post. So anything you might have said that was useful was covered up in the drivel you spouted before that halfway point.. All I did when I got annoyed with reading was mark for activity. Worshipping Ver is a pretty ridiculous way to describe my posting. I agreed with Ver and offered my opinion onto the matter of clue analysis. No it wasn't groundbreaking but to describe it as drivel seems extreme to me. But I'm biased. As I said before, I lacked focus yesterday due to being busy with some other things (packing up my room) and am now in full alert mode. So I will apologize for not having much to offer previously, but I still wanted to get my 2 cents in. | ||
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On February 15 2010 10:33 789 wrote: I agree. It would be nice for all the candidates to say who they plan to lynch if elected and why. Did we all not? I will lynch Ace if elected mayor. | ||
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I'm thinking about it. Citi.zen has been a bit inactive. | ||
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Honestly it seems to me like you're trying to do damagecontrol. If the clue connection to ace is bad and ace wasn't making any arguments to begin with, what other reason could you possibly have to suspect him? You claim you aren't confident in his innocence, well why is that? Ace has been anything but silent. Allow me to repost this list of his arguments up to the 23rd page. Ace: Talking about clues early is useless, they are useful later. I'm being targeted by L and Zato because I'm a good pro-town player. (Implies L and Zat are mafia) Be wary of light/ungrounded accusations. Don't lynch strong players unless it is obvious they are mafia. Blindly pointing fingers is bad no matter what. Clues are subjective, not objective. Never rely on clues. I refuse to provide an alternative because I don't want to point fingers at anyone. Clues are useful only when processed through DT's. I can't be mafia because if I acted differently than in previous games everyone would notice and lynch me instantly. I won't argue about clue analysis because it is subjective. I can debate whether they are valid because that is objective. Clue discussion leads to innocent death. Don't think of this as 1v1v1, this game is about temporary allegiances as the mafia try to kill eachother. L is trying to turn the town against me. Very few people actually doubt me as pro-town. L is trying to force my death and if I'm green/blue, he's definitely red. Yeah, that sure sounds silent to me. | ||
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On February 15 2010 11:28 redtooth wrote: ok now we're arguing with no goal in mind but let me just prove why you are wrong. those posts are so nostalgic: they sound like every other game where Ace and L start off by accusing each other. guess what? in this game nobody listened to ace and just shrugged off his arguments. it wasn't until i started defending him that shit really hit the fan. then everybody started talking, ace backed off and game started moving. and damage control? for what? because you think i'm mafia? or because L (who i was arguing against) and a large chunk of the town realize that i'm town aligned by now. lol you can 'start discussions' with clue analysis all you want. i'll do it by arguing against whoever is talking and randomly/halfheartedly accusing people (chezinu, BC, BM, L) to see their responses. also, if you still don't realize that Ace and i aren't aligned then omg you are slow. you are starting to seem more and more scummy, playing a lot like pyrr did when he was mafia (spamming, agreeing with vets, eventually you'll start apologizing for mistakes). can't wait to see what Ace has in store and can't wait to see what you've got to say. gg scum. I'm not apologizing for anything. Saying "no one was listening to Ace" is not the same as saying "Ace made no arguments" when that is clearly wrong. We aren't arguing with no goal in mind, you said something utterly ridiculous (Ace is silent) and then provided clear reasons why that is wrong. I don't suspect you even 80% but I am indeed wary. I personally think you're either red or blue, but your reactions are so vehement and intense it seems slightly fishy. I understand you don't think clue analysis is important, but I do. L isn't halfheartedly or randomly accusing people. He made very clear and concise clue analysis and both you and Ace responded by ignoring that and attacking him instead. Just look at the inconsistencies here in two seperate arguments you made. "Ace is innocent because the clues point to him. Ace isn't necessarily innocent, the clues just don't point to him. Clue analysis on day 1 is trash." Why venture his innocence based on clue analysis while the entire basis of your point is that clue analysis is worth nothing. Yes, the game got more active when you were defending him. That doesn't erase the large amount of arguments made, pointing fingers at L and slamming clue analysis in general. Keep up the personal attacks though. | ||
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On February 15 2010 11:33 Ace wrote: No Dr.H made a few very critical mistakes. In fact the first one was even thinking that me posting aggressively implies that I'm suspect. That's just wrong on so many levels because I tend to play aggressive majority of the time regardless of my role. Then he tried to link myself and redtooth. In fact he's done this several times in an effort to say my death will imply information about him when we haven't even done anything that shows we are on the same side. The most telling example I have is the trap I set. See I knew that regardless of what role L has, he'd attack me. In fact it's amusing that he does this all the time then people that complain about us arguing. Those people are actually my PRIME SUSPECTS because every time L and I argue a shitload of information seeps out. I'm sure L already has a list of these soon to be dead people lined up though. The main part of my trap was seeing if anyone was going to shadow L. You know, loosely agree with some of his posts no matter how wrong they are and then try and implicate me. The mere fact that you propose lynching me on Day 1 based on CLUES is a telling point that you want to off me so bad. Even L stepped back for a second to re-asses but you kept on with the accusation. However there was one other thing that tipped me over the edge. How is it possible that you are currently reading the thread, I'm not even posting and you want to lynch me and you skip Caller's post? That was probably the biggest piece of positive information in the last ~10 hours and you chose to ignore it. You are definitely not pro-town. You're Mafia. Wrong. I don't think it's because you're aggressive that you're mafia. In fact your analysis of my behavior is very very wrong. I suspect you not only based on the strong clue connection, but because of your poor logic in your arguments against L. Being aggressive has nothing to do with it. You're flat out ignoring every point he makes and just pointing fingers back at him. If you at least provided an alternative explanation for the clue profile, I might have taken your arguments seriously, but it was a seriously lame attempt at dodging the issue on your part. Shadow L? loooolol, I agreed with ver and to some extent you at first until I went back and read everything more carefully. You think I'm mafia because I agreed with someone you disagreed with? I propose lynching you because of clues, your poor arguments/logic, and the sheer amount of information the town would receive. "Even L stepped back for a second to re-asses but you kept on with the accusation. " doesn't mean anything. I've never said you are 100% mafia, only that I feel you're the strongest candidate. That doesn't mean I haven't considered other people or thought about this. It has nothing to do with how "strongly I want to off you" that just purely ridiculous. I'm saying "I think Ace might be mafia because x y and z, we should lynch him because a and b" and you're using that as evidence that I want you gone so so so so so bad that I must be scum? Nice "trap" but it doesn't make a whole lot of sense : / | ||
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On February 15 2010 11:35 Ace wrote: don't forget how he tries to tie loose implications up as "solid" facts. Seriously this is so lol. When did I say anything was a solid fact. I can list all of the arguments you've made again and that is indeed solid fact. Feel free to dispute it. | ||
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It isn't even lukewarm yet lol | ||
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On February 15 2010 11:48 Bill Murray wrote: i'm going to expand a bit on my last post. i said he's PROBABLY blue or green because being a town aligned player i have no clue as to whether or not i'm actually right. what you said implied that you already know he's green or green aligned, which means you know about who some red are already. i suppose in a scenario like this my argument is a bit less relevant as you actually wouldn't know who 10 mafia were. meeple didn't imply that in the slightest he's just saying the trap sucks because greens could fall into it easily and he's right | ||
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On February 15 2010 11:49 redtooth wrote: L wasn't accusing random people for information. i was. ace always attacks L. i chose to attack L because i found fault with his high emphasis on clue analysis with day 1 clues (something atypical of L or any vet mafia player). listen here's what happened so that bystanders can understand - L accuses Ace based on clues - Ace makes a halfhearted defense then basically sits back - i defend Ace rigorously because i think day 1 clues are retarded and because i think vets are important in this game setup, never seriously claimed that ace is innocent - something happens that makes me lose a bit of trust in ace - i see why day 1 clues aren't so retarded so i retract my full-hearted defense of Ace - you somehow fabricate all these inconsistencies in my argument and think that i am flip flopping for no reason GET OVER IT I'M NOT MAFIA. i understand L accusing me but he knows i'm townie. lol what the hell are you doing trying to paint me as mafia with really really really weak arguments and nitpicking at details? maybe you are scum? and about the vehemence in posts, this is mafia. this is serious business. I'm not hung up on the idea of you being mafia, but it does seem likely to me that you are associated with Ace who I do believe to be mafia. You claim now that you lost trust in him yet you won't give a reason why. If you can justify this shift in trust, I'll most likely gain a lot of trust in you. So far, I haven't seen any reason to do that. I am perfectly okay with you changing your mind as long as you make that clear and give reasons as to why. You may not be flip-flopping but when I look at the arguments you've made since the beginning, that's really just how it comes off to me. Ace didn't really make a halfhearted defense imo. Again, keep in mind this is my second game of mafia and I have never played with you, ace, or L before. The amount of arguments he made were substantial and the attacks were pretty intense that he made on L. Show me what is fabricated. I fucking LOGGED everyones arguments in a wordpad, so if you can correct me on a specific misunderstanding of what your argument was then I would be glad to hear that. So far you haven't really done that. | ||
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So because they argue all the time we shouldn't pay any attention? Is there something I'm missing here? | ||
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On February 15 2010 11:56 Bill Murray wrote: it's like when someone sees two dogs fighting, and they spazz out, but the dogs are really playing with each other. that's what you did. i did it too, at first, but i realized they were playing eventually (i had to read that section again) What makes you think that specifically? Again, justify your arguments. It doesn't change their core arguments: Ace: Talking about clues early is useless, they are useful later. I'm being targeted by L and Zato because I'm a good pro-town player. (Implies L and Zat are mafia) Be wary of light/ungrounded accusations. Don't lynch strong players unless it is obvious they are mafia. Blindly pointing fingers is bad no matter what. Clues are subjective, not objective. Never rely on clues. I refuse to provide an alternative because I don't want to point fingers at anyone. Clues are useful only when processed through DT's. I can't be mafia because if I acted differently than in previous games everyone would notice and lynch me instantly. I won't argue about clue analysis because it is subjective. I can debate whether they are valid because that is objective. Clue discussion leads to innocent death. Don't think of this as 1v1v1, this game is about temporary allegiances as the mafia try to kill eachother. L is trying to turn the town against me. Very few people actually doubt me as pro-town. L is trying to force my death and if I'm green/blue, he's definitely red. L: Looking at clues is very helpful, even on Day 1 because the clues are very good this time around. The clues very clearly point toward Ace and Empyrean as being mafia. Ace is discouraging clue analysis because he knows it will kill him. We can't afford to waste any lynches. Clues will help the mafia kill eachother for the benefit of the town. Ace needs to provide an alternative person to fit the day 1 clues. Ace is mafia because he refuses to analyze the clues and provide an alternative even though he is "innocent" The majority of anything people discuss lead to innocent deaths. Discussion still needs to happen and will tell us who is active and who isn't. Don't treat this game like a large 1 mafia game. Clues will be very important here. There isn't necessarily a clear clue division between the two families. The clues pointing to Ace are specific and very clear, not at all a stretch. It isn't likely that clues will grow stronger over time due to the sheer amount of mafia in this game. Don't make useless posts. People should listen to my clue analysis because I am very good at it. Town can't waste time due to KP disparity. Saying Ace is innocent because Incog wants him alive makes it too easy to twist clues. Mafia might have several good/veteran players. People look more innocent if herring clues apply to them. If Ace is red, Malongo probably is too. Don't be scared to kill a good player on day 1. I'm not trying to force Ace to die, I'm trying to analyze the clues. Offer an alternative fit if you want to turn away suspicion. I don't want Ace dead, I want the moonlight rider dead. While their might be some playful banter there, the arguments aren't invalidated by that. And honestly, I don't see it. | ||
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but he is still arguing that the trap is stupid so it isn't important whether he's poking fun or not because there is still an argument there. | ||
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On February 15 2010 12:48 redtooth wrote: .laaan i was even looking forward to your post. how does everybody see that ace and i can't both be mafia? I really would like to hear your reasoning behind the gradual shift from trusting Ace to distrusting him. | ||
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On February 15 2010 13:09 Bill Murray wrote: He doesn't even WANT to be mayor. I nominate tree.hugger for mayor, because the best person with the power is someone who doesn't want to use it. no | ||
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On February 15 2010 13:23 Chezinu wrote: The doctor talks way too much... How do you even come up with so many things to say... This is getting boring... waiting for the election... Anyone have any questions for me? jobs? tasks? anything? I spend literally all day on the internet. Yesterday was an exception, and I imagine the day after tomorrow may be as well. | ||
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On February 15 2010 14:37 redtooth wrote: listen kid. i'm going to point it out to you again. it's fairly obvious that i'm townie. like very very obvious. so obvious in fact that i'm surprised at the number of people PM'ing me and saying "OH I DONT THINK YOU ARE MAFIA" and either "I AM THIS ROLE" or "WHO DO YOU THINK MAFIA IS" lol. thanks guys. you guys make me blush. for those of you that still don't get it, I AM NOT MAFIA. let's look at the possibilities where i am mafia and why that possibility won't work. - both Ace and I are mafia - Ace is town-aligned and I am mafia Ace and I can't both be mafia. you guys let BM off the hook with the logic that "oh mafia wouldn't let him do something as stupid as that". now think about my actions. i literally went out of my way to defend ace because there were some insights into the clue structure that i felt L wasn't considering it. now if both ace and i were mafia, why would i so blatantly associate myself with ace and create a double target? if anything i can tell ace the same arguments and let him express it himself, letting the mafia family cut their losses with only 1 dead mafia. later on i started to suspect ace of being mafia and stopped defending him, another suspicious event in the eyes of the town but obviously understandable after i explain my reasons. these are all very very very risky plays if i were mafia. the alternative is Ace and i aren't aligned but i am mafia. then reason out why mafia would go out of his way to defend a random townie (or even worse a mafia of the other family). lol i could have done that to earn ace's trust but that's quite a difficult target to trick. that scenario doesn't make any sense at all either. i thought it was so obvious that you guys would understand without me explicitly laying it out but now do you understand why? please understand why... i'm getting sick of this. This is a very good defense and I wish you had said this initially instead of just implying I was stupid. I guess I must be reel dum 4 not cathcing on lawl Anyway, I am still curious as to why you changed your mind about Ace. I feel a bit uncomfortable accepting your change of heart without some justification, as I've said before. I suspect Ace far more than I suspect you and that would really help put the idea of a possible connection between you and Ace to rest. | ||
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If flip red we can analyze: Vocal Supporters Who voted for you for mayor, particularly while giving little reason Vocal accusers (L, Myself, laaan) are very likely not in the same mafia family as you People trying to distract attention from accusations toward you without offering a real argument A relatively large amount of posts to analyze from the perspective of a mafia from a specific family If you flip green, it's fair to analyze: Vocal accusers seem more suspicious Voters for the most vocal accusers People who suddenly bandwagon against you late in the thread/without reason | ||
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On February 15 2010 15:16 Ace wrote: If I flip red you can't analyze my vocal supporters. There aren't any. No one has supported me so far, only people who have said you guys may be wrong. That isn't support. It doesn't matter if you're not in the same family - you'd still be suspect. Who has tried to distract attention from this argument? List them please. For the very last time, you can't analyze my posts. In fact before you even try and get me killed it might be a wise idea and analyze them now to see what you can find. And by analyze I don't mean "hey guys, look what Ace said" but more akin to what links if any you can see to other people. I ask this sincerely because before you try and kill me on the basis I'm Mafia you should do this BEFORE offing me to make sure you have some clue of what you are doing. Needless to say I think you're so off tangent so this will hopefully show you why you're wrong. Now if you lynch me when I'm innocent you don't even get any more information based on my last paragraph. You have nothing to link me on. Nothing. you'd start the next day with the SAME information as the last. If you can prove me wrong, do it now by examining my posts and see what you can find that is going to be so mind blowing to the town it gets us a path to the Mafia. You said yourself if you flip green, that myself/L/laaan are likely mafia. Saying there is no information to be gleaned from your death either way is silly. I wouldn't call ver a vocal supporter of you, but like redtooth said. If you are mafia, your allies will likely not vehemently defend you but perhaps try to discourage the use of clue analysis. Ver made a post a while back saying that "anyone discouraging clue usage is probably innocent" and it seems to me (please correct me if I'm wrong) that you tried to discourage redtooth from making anti-ver posts with your PM to him. redtooth just now has added a fair amount to the case for you being scum. You're saying my suspicion isn't based on any analysis, but I've stated many times it has to do with your dodging L's questions, being unwilling to provide alternative solutions, and the biggest basis of your argument being "fuck you I'm ace i dont need to defend myself cuz im ace" | ||
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please please please give reasons as to why you think the way you do. If you could make a serious argument for Ace being blue or redtooth being mafia, that would be very game changing. But you're just making statements with no justification and that isn't helpful | ||
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care to provide justification for these statements? -ace is blue -redtooth is red or you can just keep clogging up the thread with trash posts that are saying absolutely nothing | ||
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like everything else you have posted | ||
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I would call that retarded, personally | ||
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Posting from the heart is garbage, don't just throw out your "feelings" if you don't have anything to back it up. You're just providing confusing and stupid distractions from posts with real points and arguments. You dodged my demands that you justify your statements for a while when you posted your "mafia list" Do you want me to keep pestering you or are you just going to continually waste everyones time? | ||
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then immediately proceeds to post tons of confusing shit. naturally people would think "oh a mafia would never do something that obvious" but perhaps, if BM is mafia, that is his desired defense. He certainly isn't doing anything to help the town whatsoever besides being a "confirmed" pro-town running for mayor | ||
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[QUOTE]On February 15 2010 15:23 DoctorHelvetica wrote: [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 15:16 Ace wrote: [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 15:04 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Information: If flip red we can analyze: Vocal Supporters Who voted for you for mayor, particularly while giving little reason Vocal accusers (L, Myself, laaan) are very likely not in the same mafia family as you People trying to distract attention from accusations toward you without offering a real argument A relatively large amount of posts to analyze from the perspective of a mafia from a specific family If you flip green, it's fair to analyze: Vocal accusers seem more suspicious Voters for the most vocal accusers People who suddenly bandwagon against you late in the thread/without reason[/QUOTE] If I flip red you can't analyze my vocal supporters. There aren't any. No one has supported me so far, only people who have said you guys may be wrong. That isn't support. It doesn't matter if you're not in the same family - you'd still be suspect. Who has tried to distract attention from this argument? List them please. For the very last time, you can't analyze my posts. In fact before you even try and get me killed it might be a wise idea and analyze them now to see what you can find. And by analyze I don't mean "hey guys, look what Ace said" but more akin to what links if any you can see to other people. I ask this sincerely because before you try and kill me on the basis I'm Mafia you should do this BEFORE offing me to make sure you have some clue of what you are doing. Needless to say I think you're so off tangent so this will hopefully show you why you're wrong. Now if you lynch me when I'm innocent you don't even get any more information based on my last paragraph. You have nothing to link me on. Nothing. you'd start the next day with the SAME information as the last. If you can prove me wrong, do it now by examining my posts and see what you can find that is going to be so mind blowing to the town it gets us a path to the Mafia. [/QUOTE] [quote]You said yourself if you flip green, that myself/L/laaan are likely mafia. Saying there is no information to be gleaned from your death either way is silly.[/quote] Look at my paragraph before the last then re-read what I was addressing. It makes perfect sense. [quote] I wouldn't call ver a vocal supporter of you, but like redtooth said. If you are mafia, your allies will likely not vehemently defend you but perhaps try to discourage the use of clue analysis. Ver made a post a while back saying that "anyone discouraging clue usage is probably innocent" and it seems to me (please correct me if I'm wrong) that you tried to discourage redtooth from making anti-ver posts with your PM to him. redtooth just now has added a fair amount to the case for you being scum. You're saying my suspicion isn't based on any analysis, but I've stated many times it has to do with your dodging L's questions, being unwilling to provide alternative solutions, and the biggest basis of your argument being "fuck you I'm ace i dont need to defend myself cuz im ace"[/QUOTE] Ver, myself, MBH, and other have discouraged the use of clue analysis early on in past games. We are KNOWN to do this. This is why I said you pointing this out doesn't help your case. It's really not a big deal. You're trying to out think people when there isn't even a situation present. And yes you're wrong. You should ask redtooth for the PM if you want clarity. I didn't try to influence redtooth in any way. If I wanted to do that I probably would have kept PMing him. He already showed me he was slightly distrustful of me when he cut the conversation short. For the record I don't even agree with Ver that anyone discouraging clue usage is possibly innocent because that's too wide of a blanket statement. How does redtooth's post push me further to scum? PLEASE explain this. Honestly you're really talking lots of bull right now. I address arguments that warrant attention. I'm not here to constantly repeat myself. All the answers are in the posts. If you need help reading, ask for it. Like really you're so wrong and I hate to say it's because you're a newb but it's getting very close to that point. THINK before you post. Seriously. [/QUOTE] How does it push you further to scum? lol Because he provided reasons why he became distrustful of you and since he knows your posting style better than I do, I give a bit of credence to analysis. Why wouldn't additional reasons you may be mafia make me distrust you more? | ||
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I didn't trust you from the beginning. If you said, I didn't trust Bill Murray but given some new posts on the matter/things Player X pointed out I'm a bit more secure in the distrust, that would be perfectly reasonable | ||
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Alright, thanks for clearing that up redtooth. However, if he is responding/acting uncharacteristically that isn't something I'm going to ignore since I don't trust Ace in the first place. I really don't want to come off as hyper-aggressively pushing Ace to be killed, because I'm really not, but he is the best target for the town as far as I'm concerned. My question is, if not Ace who? Convince me with reason to reach an alternate conclusion. Ace, you've refused to provide an alternative for the clue profile. I'd be comfortable lynching Empyrean based off the very strong clue connection and his inactiveness, as an alternative. I also have minor suspicions toward BloodyC0bbler. | ||
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On February 16 2010 00:48 citi.zen wrote: As promised, I will share my partial thoughts on player behavior thus far. The list is in no particular order and is obviously not exhaustive. Ver: in my post yesterday I complained about people who only make “general theory of mafia” posts. That complaint referred to you and Ace in particular: smart players who simply stated they should be trusted based on past games and that they are awesome mafia catchers, yet do not make any serious attempt to help in this particular game. The many half-truths Ver had posted puzzled me. Then came Ver’s two posts on page 50. What joy: coherent and helpful thoughts on the current game, plus a good, ernest analysis on Empryean. Glad to finally see a better side of you, and agree with much of what you said. Empryean clearly matches clues + is somewhat shady with his posts. Ace: partly covered above - extremely frustrating posts from a smart/veteran player. In the same breath Ace argues clues are unreliable and we need to rely on posting behavior, only to immediately try to stifle any forum discussion with the “if you point your finger at me based on clues you must be mafia” argument, and the even more nonsensical follow-up “I set a trap, anyone who points a finger at me falls right into it”. How does this attitude help generate behavioral clues if nobody is allowed to talk about the clues? Combine this with the (perhaps too) strong clues linking Ace to both Mafia families, and Ace looks very shady to me. BloodyCobbler: too little history, but seems a bit too quiet and has a clue link. One to watch, but too little there for me to push the button at this time. redtooth: recklessly aggressive, quickly pointing fingers and pushing very hard for his election. Many of his arguments are not as strong as he seems to think/make them out, and his statement that “going with the town is spineless” makes me nervous if he is elected and acts on his own weird theories. That said, no clue link to him as far as I can tell, and the fact that he is putting himself out there with such abandon means he is most likely green/blue. L: similar to redtooth in his willingness to point fingers at people, but much less aggressive in his campaign. He is one to watch for the future to be sure, but right now I would not pull the trigger on lynching him if I had that power. Chezinu: if he is town purposely spamming it is very annoying, we’re already over 50 pages on day one. If he is red he is doing a good job I guess. In the end I don’t care, I would not mind seeing him gone, but he is not a top priority target I suppose. If I had to guess I would think this is exactly the reaction he is going for… so whatever. Bill Murray: in my opinion he is perfectly consistent with his behavior from game XVI, where he played very sloppy. He was a freaking DT, telling random people his role and how his clue-check turned, asking for medic protection on the forum and in private messages, and coming up with crazy theories he thought were golden. Nothing new under the sun as far as I am concerned so I doubt he is red. DoctorH: I cannot tell if this is mafia XVI 2.0 or him playing town. I am puzzled as to why he is going after Bill so aggressively. DrH was red in game XVI, yet Bill fucking confided in him through PMs that he was a DT and that I was clue-checked green. How can DrH not know/ignore the fact that Bill always makes mistakes galore? This makes DrH fishy to me, but in the end I am not yet ready to pull the trigger. Zato-1: shady posting behavior already covered by others and clue link to dreamflower’s killer. He is on the shortlist. Parting thoughts Last game convinced me that, thanks to the "no DT check" rule, I can never trust an elected official, even when they helped catch many mafiosi. This will be even more of an issue this time around, since mafia officials DO want to lynch/catch other mafia. Much as I like Ver’s recent posts, I therefore do not want him elected, but would instead put him on the “DT check shortlist” - he can be far more useful from that role. Per my analysis above, I will withdraw my vote for DrH - I just don’t get his very aggressive stance on Bill Murray. As things stand, I will probably vote for redtooth or L, hoping to get both of them elected. Bill Murray could be a 3rd choice, but given his past (and current?) blatant mistakes, I'd rather not go there. I would also like to hear more from veteran players who remain very quiet. Zona, Scamp and BloodyCobbler come to mind. In the meantime, as Ver said, the most useful thing we can do now is to try to advance the lit of suspects, and help DTs come up with people to role-check on night 1. I don't understand what you mean by my aggressive stance on Bill Murray. If you think it's fishy that I would like Bill Murray to support his statements with actual arguments then I don't know what to say. I will lynch Empyrean if I am elected, not BM. | ||
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I guess for the time being Empyrean is our best bet. Ver did a great job of pointing out the inconsistency in his pro-town/mafia behavior from past games and the clue connection is just very very very very strong. Redtooth did a decent job of defending himself, or at least why it doesn't make sense that he and Ace are both in the same mafia family. His argument for him and ace not being in different mafia families doesn't make sense. "Why would mafia defend a mafia from another family/not mafia" Unless he wanted to discourage clue analysis because he fears it will hurt his mafia family, or wanted to defend Ace because regardless of Ace's role his argumentation is successfully dividing the town. If redtooth is mafia, he has no way of knowing Ace's role anyway, so saying "i wouldn't defend another families mafia" makes no sense because he doesn't know who those people are. I really doubt the mafia are going to ONLY defend one another, look what happened when I got lynched in the last game. By analyzing who I defended/supported/whose clues I ignored the entire rest of the mafia family was caught. I'm not accusing you of being mafia redtooth, I'm just pointing out that the argument falls short. I'm voting for L because so far his arguments have been extremely consistent, he's been trying to get the town moving/discouraging waste posts, and providing excellent clue analysis. Redtooth shouldn't have a problem with this, don't you want L as the other elected role anyway? | ||
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On February 16 2010 06:21 Bill Murray wrote: well, you are behaving completely different than you did last game meeple. So is citi.zen and I think that is very worth noting. Also his logic is a bit shakier than the last game. He's trying to paint me red on the completely and utterly false accusation that I'm pressing hard for a Bill Murray lynch? Should we really be voting people for mayor who don't even read the thread and know what's going on? On February 16 2010 06:24 Nikoner wrote: How do you expect DTs to come forward, they haven't even had the chance to do anything during the night yet. Only reason to come forward as a DT today would be if you're the godfather of a mafia so you could potentially infiltrate townie circles, and even then, it's way risky. That's a fair point. It's only the first day and so much drama @___@. Chezinu came forward as a DT, we can't forget about that. | ||
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On February 16 2010 06:28 L wrote: Nikoner, not killing someone day 1 is generally a box of dumb. Even if it makes me look bad, its better to have 100% confirmable information for the town to work with regarding associations and whatnot. My only fear is that ZERO people have pushed back against my claim against emp, and a number of people have tagged along well after i took pains to make it clear i wasn't dropping the accusation. Either one of the mafia teams is using him as a sacrifice to get, say, ver, to look good by supporting my position, or emp is green/blue and afk like a moron. Given his vote, it would seem that he isn't afk, which leads me to believe that killing him will at least give me some information. I'm actually more worried about how much information regarding clue interpretation for this game I can glean from a red or green flip than anything else. Like i said; Grow some fucking balls. It does seem strange to me that there was a big backlash at a strong clue connection to Ace but everyone accepted Empyrean rather quietly. However, do consider the fact that there isn't really any herrings in the description of the radiant killer that point to anyone else. Empyrean simply fits. While Ace fits strongly, it was pointed out that 789 actually fits the clue profile very well also, so there is a bit more room for doubt. | ||
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On February 16 2010 06:30 Bill Murray wrote: i'd like to point something out. if you say "this person is mafia" it is nearly flipping a coin as to whether or not you're right. the problem with this game is that they're going to be working together for a common goal, while the town has noone that they can trust/confide in to craft a plan for that common goal. by "spamming the thread" with my campaign for office, and responding to people, I was simply trying to provide that to the town. Someone who is going to try to give a way for greens and blues to come together to actually try and discuss a common goal and how to achieve it. What does that mean? How does spamming the thread provide a way for everyone to work together in peace? You aren't playing this game. All of your posts were empty accusations and finger pointing with no justification until I pestered it out of you. Saying "this person is mafia" is perfectly fine if you can support that with reason and argument. "I know I am green" doesn't make anyone trust you. | ||
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On February 16 2010 06:52 SugiuraMidori wrote: So why are people voting for Chez all of a sudden? He just acts like a 12yr old kid that has yet to have his balls drop, as L so brilliantly pointed out. He also had 0 votes till now.. waste vote? | ||
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On February 16 2010 07:07 789 wrote: I think you have a good point with BC, that's another potential fit for the last killer. I've looked into the laughter and the noises and got nothing. The hyena like laughter came up at one point during the last mafia game we played - but it didn't seem to fit anyone in that game. The people who were mafia in that game and are in this game are: DrH Mystlord Phrujbaz It still doesn't seem to fit any of the 3. Though I'll be honest I haven't for the life of me been able to find out what Phrujbaz means. From Mystlords profile: ![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/userfiles/38753.jpg?1265874875) The girl appears to be laughing from atop a roof, which is the location of the killer in the scenario. Interestingly enough, the town is burning around her which is fitting since arson was used by other killers to get the job done. She doesn't necessarily appear to be the cause of the fire, but rather is amongst it | ||
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On February 16 2010 07:44 redtooth wrote: you're right. actually that's exactly what i want you to do. i want L as mayor and i want to be pardoner. no vigilantes means pardoner is very very powerful if he is mafia. as for my argument in why it's sort of illogical for ace and me to be mafia in separate families is because consider the alternative: i could have silently held back and not brought attention to myself instead of being in the middle of controversy between the town. knowing previous games, L vs Ace was going to become a shitstorm whether i stepped in or not. instead i chose to argue a point, blew my top (admittedly more than a few times), and got into a position where my alignment was pretty damn clear. and if Ace isn't on my team (which would be the case if i was mafia and he wasn't in my family) then i would want him dead regardless of what role/alignment he was. and guys i've said this before but i genuinely believed L was full of shit. now i only think he is half shitty but i've expressed my disdain for day 1 clues enough already. so it's not about mafia ONLY defending each other. it's about a mafia risking his own neck to defend a good player that's not on his team. THAT is something that doesn't make sense. so if it doesn't make sense then that means i'm not mafia. yay we are finally caught up. Fair point, now that is a good argument. Why are we assuming day 1 clues are bad based off previous games? There are 20 mafia. It's highly unlikely that mafia will be getting 6 kills a night, I'd say 4 MAYBE 5 is more likely. Why? 1) Overlapping kills. The mafia are simply going to hit the same targets. Let's say, for example, Player X is green. He's been painted red by a lot of people and thus might be hit by both families. This could happen with anyone who was painted red but is not mafia of either family. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if even 2 kills overlap. 2) Smart medics. While mafia might avoid really big targets early on because they will be protected by medics, medics who are able to anticipate mafia goals will help reduce kills. With 20 mafia, let's assume we get 5 hits a day. We don't see overlapping clues until DAY SIX DAY SIX If everyone feels uncomfortable with Day 1 clue analysis just based on previous experience, I guess there isnt really anything I can say. But let's please not ignore clues on Day 2. If someone makes an accusation based on clues at you, provide an alternative. Simply saying "day 1 clues are trash" isn't enough, especially when you aren't addressing the point of just how many mafia there are in this game and how strong clues need to be. Also redtooth, I'd like you to clear something up for me. I found a mildly disturbing inconsistency in your arguments. While L was painting Ace red based on clues you said clue analysis on day 1 is trash; that's fine. You also said the clues pointing to ace specifically were shaky and not well thought-out. Then merely a few posts later you said that the clues pointing toward Ace were so obvious/numerous he can't be mafia. Was there a change of heart here? what happened? | ||
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On February 16 2010 07:55 Mystlord wrote: There's just so many useless posts that I'm having trouble picking through it all... It could be a calculated sacrifice. If town is convinced that someone is mafia, mafia would be unwilling to put up a strong defense of that person without seeming scummy. We might see a light defense though. Also, there's just not that much to defend for him. He hasn't spoken one. freaking. word. As for my profile pic, nothing to say. It's a solid connection to the clues, and I won't blame you if you end up lynching me based off of that. Oh, and another point about Empyrean... Where do we go from his lynch? Are we just lynching to help out the other mafia family or what? I might be a bit ignorant in this, so I'd like to get this cleared up before I'm fully on board with the Empyrean lynch. It seems more like a dead end to me. If he truly is mafia, why not let a mafia family waste a kill on him? The one thing that makes me hesitant about lynching you on clues is that there are so many elements from the scenario. 1) A spear 2) Laughing psychoatph 3) Fire 4) Rooftop 5) Moon 6) Shadows/darkness etc. etc. etc. etc. With that many red herrings, it's possible it was written to throw false suspicion on you. However, imo, speculation about Incognito's thought process in writing these or why he placed what where isn't helpful. Only Incognito and possibly flamewheel know what the thought process is in drafting these clues, we can only speculate on the clues themselves. | ||
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On February 16 2010 08:05 sidesprang wrote: Man your so wrong about the overlapping clues thing. If we dont see overlapping clues before day 6, it is because the mafia only hits the town. And that is not realistic. The mafia hitting 1/3 each lynch seems realistic if not to low to me. Then we have 6 dead by day 3. And already overlapping clues. Altho the mafia would prolly have overlapping hits. But my point still stands. We will see overlapping hits WAY before day 6, and if we dont we're allready doomed cause we've lost half our town Huh? I said we'll be seeing overlapping hits from Day 1, for sure. I really didn't think about that. Mafia numbers will be decreasing from mafia hits, so I guess we'll probably be seeing overlapping clues around day 4ish. It depends on how successful mafia are with their hits. However, with a number of mafia this large and the probability for there to be very few actual kills per night compared to their total KP especially early on, it's gonna be a while. The Day 1 clues seem fairly strong and unvague to me, why not analyze them? | ||
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On February 16 2010 08:17 sidesprang wrote: yea lol, i meant to say. we will see overlapping clues WAY before day 6. And even tho i wrote wrong you should be able to see thats what i meant. I'm all for analyzing clues from day 1. As it helps building a suspect list, that we can narrow down with time. And it will create alot of discussions, so the good players can prolly pick up if someone fucks up and contradicts himself. I agree. It seems (if anyone disagrees PLEASE state so) that the town consensus is that the lynch is far less important. Our vehicle for eliminating the mafia is going to be discussion and a great way to get that started is with clue analysis. I really think we can find viable lynch targets through clue analysis backed up with behavioral analysis. Regardless, the more discussion we generate the harder it will be for mafia to hide and the more obvious inactive players/"active" players saying nothing are going to become. The mafia will pick up on that and kill each other. | ||
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On February 16 2010 08:30 Bill Murray wrote: We have 30 minutes to save the election. I don't expect you all to run and vote for me, although that would provide me comfort that we have a green in office, but it would be nice if we could actually try to get someone from the town in office... why are you operating under the assumption that you've been 100% confirmed as green here's some interesting news: you haven't been this isn't like citi.zen in the last game who was only confirmed green to the town because you broke the rules | ||
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On February 16 2010 08:34 redtooth wrote: ok i'm going to take this as slow as possible. i never thought ace was innocent. i thought that you were wrong. i still think that you are wrong. for all the objections i've listed (clue balance issues, overtly obvious clues on a veteran mafia, day fucking one clues) you've yet to provide a counter-argument to any of them. you're counter-arguments consisted of 'well this clue is too good'. and you know what, you were acting pretty scummy. however as you explained the whole thing about the massive number of mafia i was willing to accept that maybe, just maybe, these clues might have something in them. still don't think that much crap points to Ace. do think you're on the ball with Emp (sent him in as my lynch candidate in case i somehow overtake you). however at this point i was too deep in the argument with you about how i think you shouldn't do a lynch solely based off of clues that seemed too ridiculously obvious. part of the reason why i got in so deep is because of my genuine belief that i think you are wrong, that you are jumping the gun, and that you just want to kill Ace. but let's forget Ace for now, i don't care about him anymore and can't see how you think we can be allied. so i realized that my play had shown that i am town-aligned. i didn't go around screaming "I'M BAD VOTE ME" but logically showed why my defense of Ace and attention-grabbing argument against you is either a very bad move by mafia or something a townie would do. i assumed people understood this but weren't moving because they were either (a) lazy, (b) stupid, (c) weren't told to do so and that is why i pushed so hard to get me elected (i had zero votes not too long ago... i'm talking not even 12 hours ago). and honestly i wouldn't mind you getting out of mayor and BM stepping into that position. mayor doesn't really do much anyways so it doesn't matter who gets it. what does matter is that i know i am pardoner and i get that role. and chezinu won't die. and if he doesn't die then it isn't too hard to see his actual role after one round. however we don't know for certain that he is townie (he is acting pretty normal other than the roleclaim) so i wouldn't want him in the pardoner seat. any other arguments? This is between you and L, but I'd like to butt-in and say L provided very clear counter-arguments. Here are some examples from my argument compendium: The clues pointing to Ace are specific and very clear, not at all a stretch. It isn't likely that clues will grow stronger over time due to the sheer amount of mafia in this game. Saying Ace is innocent because Incog wants him alive makes it too easy to twist clues. I'm not trying to force Ace to die, I'm trying to analyze the clues. Offer an alternative fit if you want to turn away suspicion. These are the best Day 1 clues we've ever had, no reason to ignore them. | ||
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On February 16 2010 08:35 Mystlord wrote: Correct. I want the town to do nothing, and the mafia to do all the work. I believe that our lynches should be used to reveal potential mafia, not actually kill mafia. If we're to pit the mafia against each other, then it stands to reason that we'd want to give mafia leads, not start lynching one a day. As far as I'm concerned, lynching Empyrean gets us nowhere. Provide an alternative? | ||
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On February 16 2010 08:42 Ace wrote: This doesn't apply to me. Not only am I way too good to even fall for that, but I'm innocent. So yes, you fail. All of your arguments basically boil down to "fuk u im ace and im smarter than u so shut up" | ||
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if he says he is going to protect one person, the mafia just simply won't even bother hitting them. | ||
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On February 16 2010 09:17 Bill Murray wrote: your logic was that meeple and doctorh had to be in the mafia together, and that it was very likely, and i called you an idiot for that logic (plus t_co was behaving worse than I have been in this thread) that was t_co's logic too and it turned out to be wrong that why it's stupid to say "if im lynched and im green then everyone who accused me is mafia" | ||
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On February 16 2010 09:18 Iaaan wrote: I wonder, was the intention to make Redtooth mayor, or was it to make L pardoner? At least 2 of L, Ace, Redtooth, Ver, DrH, BC and Citizen are Mafia. I'm sure at least, that one Mafia family didn't get two people elected. Is that everyone who ran? l10f ran quite early on iirc | ||
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I'll be reading every profile, be back in a bit. | ||
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BloodyC0bblers profile has a magician surrounded by blue light with what appears to be some sort of blue fire in his hand. However this magician is obviously human. Zona's profile leads me to believe it might possibly point to him? ![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/userfiles/28646.jpg?1265809096) That's Zona's profile picture. It is a bit confusing but definitely falls under "blue light" and there are no human like characteristics to be found in it. Also consider Zona's very inactive posting behavior compared to the last game. That's all I could come up with and neither seem as strong as Empyrean did : / | ||
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What do you mean by what do we lose? Since you're discussing the mafia perspective... | ||
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On February 17 2010 03:16 nemY wrote: I tallied up the list of ppl who made vote swaps. I may have made a mistake or two (in which case could someone double check it please?), but I feel like this may give a better clue to who our mafia may really be, and at least it it allows us to do some analysis, rather than say... making a list of ppl you "feel" are mafia Chezinu 5x DoctorHelvetica 3x MasterDana 1x [NyC]HoBbes 1x 789 2x Bill Murray 6x BloodyC0bbler 1x tree.hugger 1x Fulgrim 1x Nikoner 2x Ace 2x Caller 2x Decafchicken 1x d3_crescentia 3x citi.zen 2x meeple 1x sidesprang 1x SugiuraMidori 1x Empyrean 1x (he’s dead now though) If you're complaining about no one supplying relevant information, than why make this list lol? At least say who the votes were for. On February 16 2010 14:40 Chezinu wrote: What does tredmasta, Phrujbaz, ohN, and MasterDana have in common? They all abstain. They all ignored my pm's. They shall be on the mafia' hit list. Is this a scumtell? Please explain. I just woke up so I'll give my thoughts on malongos plan in a bit as well as an updated/better formatted compilation of arguments/opinions. | ||
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On February 17 2010 09:45 Bill Murray wrote: you know what's funny.... 4 of those people were on my original "crazy list" that everyone chastised me for, and d3_crescentia was the person i was throwing heat on later on... maybe the mafia listen to me ... and that's why their hits sucked or theyre working together vs the town, that could be terrible It seems more likely that they picked up on incorrect accusations. I really doubt the mafia would ally this game. | ||
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On February 17 2010 09:50 Bill Murray wrote: lol nice to see you pop your head out of the sand now that the daylight is here DoctorH thanks ive been catching up with marble hornets (http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/viewblog.php?topic_id=112469) and playing zone of the enders 2 most of today i slept for a really long time since i stayed up so late last night playing sc I probably won't be very active until later today, im too addicted to this marble hornets thing. | ||
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On February 17 2010 10:04 Bill Murray wrote: this is the second or third time you've tried to paint me red, and you know why i wasn't killed last night? because i am an idiot townie. quit trying to paint me red, man, it's misguided and a waste of time. i am the most uninformed player in this thread......... im going to go for a bit, but when i come back, i'll attempt to analyze the clues in relation to profiles. "I can't be mafia because I wasn't killed!" good argument consideirng not a single mafia died tonight. | ||
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I am usually on the internet all day but I do feel bad for my previous 'spamming' so I'm staying away from mafia until I have the time to really take it in and make sure I can contribute something useful. I'm going to catch up now. Great post LucasWoJ! | ||
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On February 18 2010 10:47 SugiuraMidori wrote: We're all too busy watching live SC2 feeds, why aren't you :D yeah me too :D | ||
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L, you're compiling all the quotes of the deceased? I would have done that myself, but no need for redudancy. I look forward to your post Ver | ||
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On February 19 2010 10:39 Ver wrote: Oh yeah second call for roleclaims. I've already gotten 10, keep em coming. If you are innocent being early is in your favor since when role numbers don't match up the late guys look a lot more questionable, so don't delay! Why should a pro-town roleclaim to you? I understand there is reason to believe you may have been hit, but unless I missed something in my activity there is no way for you to prove that. You could be red. | ||
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In the last game I was mafia, there were staged mafia arguments. Look for anyone who might have weakly attacked Mystlord and "lose the argument" The mafia will be actively attempting to discourage themselves being grouped together. This game has a very different dynamic but I do believe that will still apply. | ||
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On February 19 2010 14:23 tree.hugger wrote: I can't wait for my full analysis. Because I'm very curious where this wonderful list of names emanated from. Because if this is a list of people under suspicion, then you're certainly up there as well. At least I should be around just enough to really read this forum now. What did you edit ??? | ||
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On February 20 2010 09:20 d3_crescentia wrote: I KNEW SUGIURA WAS MAFIA! Also, unsurprised at DrH. Man what happened to all the posting? i was legitimately inactive for irl reasons gg no re yakuza fighting! | ||
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On February 20 2010 14:13 Ace wrote: ^_^ @ DR.H ;_; | ||
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