EPTOn January 19 2010 12:13 The_Master wrote:
I'm excited. Cannot wait for it to start.
I'm excited. Cannot wait for it to start.
Can't agree more!
Incognito's TL Mafia XVI
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Ser Aspi
France84 Posts
Can't agree more! | ||
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Ser Aspi
France84 Posts
On January 20 2010 14:26 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Keit doesn't fit every clue either. None of the suspected players really fit 100% I think we shouldn't get too ahead of ourselves with these clues. I agree! These clues seem really hard. They'll probably be easier as the game continues DoctorH you seem pretty active. Are you by chance going to run for office? You seem to be making the most sense so far. Right now I think we should be discussing who is going to run for office and what plans they have. This Sherrif role seems kinda funky I don't really understand it. Would be great if someone could make some sense of that blasted contraption. Also can clue checks find out the godfather? I'm really afraid of the godfather. How can we find them out without a rolecheck. | ||
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Ser Aspi
France84 Posts
Having less information only helps the mafia. The biggest two allies of the mafia imo are quiet ppl and inactive ppl. | ||
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On January 21 2010 10:45 citi.zen wrote: Let me throw this out there: we all agree an elected position benefits the mob, if they can get it. Also, the mob is organized and know each other, so they are likely to pre-determine who will run from their camp. So my conjecture is this: one and only one of the candidates is a mobster. So far the candidates are: myself, DoctorH, meeple, 789 and t_co. I think one of us, and only one, is a mobster. PS: I also realize that I am an idiot for continuing to offer my best guesses to the public: if these guesses are right, the mob will kill me to get rid of a troublesome player. Who else would they go for? If I am wrong, I will move to the top of the list for getting lynched by the town, since I argued my points clearly and strongly and got innocent people killed (say... [NyC]Hobbes gets lynched but turns out to be innocent this round - who would you all blame?!?). i really like to see stuff like this  I don't really have any good thoughts of my own yet but I think that you are brave in stepping up and pointing the finger. | ||
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Ser Aspi
France84 Posts
On January 21 2010 17:14 Bill Murray wrote: there are only 4 people who have yet to post on here, or are lurking (i'm assuming that because there are 3 people who have posted on the vote thread, who haven't posted here. there are also a few with only 1 post.) the 4 inactives are: Ng5, ohN, phyujbaz, and JohannesH. Correct me if i'm wrong. Many people will now say "Lynch them!", but do you kill stasised tanks first? Do you use feedback on a maelstromed defiler, or one that is running away towards your cannons? haha cute analogy I think right now that most mafia are sitting back and watching everyone argue lol | ||
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Ser Aspi
France84 Posts
On January 22 2010 02:59 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Has anyone considered the whole possibility that the mafia doesn't even have a candidate? We've been going on this whole shitstorm assuming someone running for office is red. The mafia could see that and just think "well wouldn't it really fuck with them if none of us ran? They'll tear each other apart and probably end up lynching their elected candidates" That's kind what is happening too. I agree with this. Great thinking DoctorH! We have to be careful about killing ourselves early on Let's think about t_co's actions from his own perspective. If he is mafia, what does he have to gain from putting himself in the open like that as well as suggesting we lynch the mayor and using an RNG setup to win. Not only does this draw a lot of attention to himself for no reason which I certainly wouldn't want if I was mafia, but it also doesn't seem like a good plan for the mafia however bizarre it is. What does he have to gain from doing this? Try looking at it from that way, it might help a bit  Given that he's probably not mafia, it's far more likely he's a misguided townie and should not be lynched. As a townie he would think that he has a unique plan to offer and has no fear of putting it up for people to see. Just because nobody likes the plan doesn't mean he is a bad guy too. It seems like a dumb idea to lynch someone who we know is innocent just because he's turning the town against themselves. I spoke with him and he realized that the senseless bickering was doing only the mafia good and said he would stop, which he has. Everyone else should follow his lead then we can all rejoice and gallop to happy land | ||
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Ser Aspi
France84 Posts
If my ideas are no good i will simply have to try other stuff. | ||
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Ser Aspi
France84 Posts
I'm gonna clue analyze myself and see what comes up!The mafia is characterized as being bold and fast to action. They also kill in creative ways, have a contempt for lawyers, and make use of appliances and the laws of physics. Now I forgot to put anything in my profile. Oh no  All they can write clues for is my name. Ser aspi is the reverse of ispa res, which is a law term used to examine negligence. Ser is also the ancient root of a verb that generally relates to 'being'. In the book Song of Ice and Fire ser is used in place of sir. So if I was referenced it could be to a knight or royalty.I see no links to nobility so far. The mafia being bold and assertive might be a farfetched link to ser, but it is pretty farfetched  . The ancient links to ser might be a problem though. In many of the definitions of ser, some of the common roots are from the Gauls and Catalans, who were most definitely barbarians. And the mafia leader did utter a barbaric cry. I'm getting a little scared here. But that's not the end of it.Negligence might be applicable for the guards failing to do their jobs, or the town leaders getting assassinated so easily. But the real problem is that Qatol is described as a lawyer and that they were in a discussion about legal ramifications, which could've been caused by their own negligence. We all know that lawyers are dirty scum. The mafia even calls him that. Now that looks all right because Qatol is the lawyer, not the mafia. But who would know that lawyers are dirty scum other than another lawyer. The mafia who said that might be a lawyer too who is undoubtedly familiar with ispa res and how scummy lawyers are. Also, mafia are sometimes called "scum." Perhaps he was using a phrase that he had been called himself before? I don't know, but it doesn't look very good. The good news is that there are so many small connections but no real huge ones. I doubt I'd be linked on every single one so it might be just red herrings after all. Hard to say. So overall I'm a little suspicious and conflicted. There's no concrete link, which makes me feel safe, but there's a lot of small ones. Based on these set of clues I can't tell if I am mafia or innocent  We shall have to wait and see what day 2 brings! | ||
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Ser Aspi
France84 Posts
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On January 22 2010 09:58 Zona wrote: I suggest lynching Faronel. Unlike other suggestions of hidden alliances, Faronel's few actions in this game DO link him to t_co, and unlike t_co, Faronel has not contributed a lot to the thread. This makes sense. | ||
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Ser Aspi
France84 Posts
But we need to remain logical and realize that a clue link is meaningless right now.Lynching t_co is not useful either. It's basically a wasted lynch at this point. Faronel or any of those low contribution people is totally the right idea me thinks. We don't learn anything by lynching anyone really besides that person's role. Lynching t_co won't tell us anything useful. Same with hobbes or anyone else. | ||
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Ser Aspi
France84 Posts
Please meeple don't pick t_co. | ||
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Ser Aspi
France84 Posts
On January 22 2010 11:10 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Whether he was mafia or not, I still think t_co was the best choice considering his behavior. So this pretty much clears up faronel eh? This says nothing at all about Faronel. But on that note people shouldn't rebound onto you or meeple either. This lynch gave 0 information. I'm rather disgruntled. Whatever, i'll just go clue analyze myself again my ideas are worthless anyway. | ||
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Ser Aspi
France84 Posts
On January 22 2010 14:09 Zona wrote: You know what, it may be useful for detectives to use at least one of the role checks early. Right now, if they get a successful clue check, it's hard for them to convince the town of it without outing themselves, since we've already discussed the first set of clues ad nauseam without any conclusions. However, if they check someone and aren't too unlucky, they'll hit a town member and then can share with them safely (although the town member they contact will not necessarily be able to trust the detective). And if we establish a method of choosing which player to check (i.e. check the player below them in the player list) then they won't waste/overlap checks. But the risk of that method is that if a mafia member is not contacted, then they will know the person above them is not a detective. Hmm. More to think about. All detectives imo should rolecheck twice, cluecheck, then rolecheck again. Rolecheck is 10x stronger in every way. And yes there's nothing wrong with claiming to someone innocent unless you are extremely suspicious of what role came up. This is one way to form networks where people can trust. | ||
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Ser Aspi
France84 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=91680 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=103738 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=89338 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=66251 1. A lot of people discuss clues but they never use them to lynch until day 3 at the earlier. Even the best clue people so far as i can tell don't do much until day 3. Logically it makes sense because if clues early on are too easy then the mafia have no chance as more and more clues pile on. Also a lot of mafia try to hide by posting fake clue analysis. Because clue analysis is mostly speculation unless a master is doing it i dunno how to tell the fake from the legit. We should be careful of anyone who posts only clue analysis to 'blend in.' in the first game on the list a lot of the mafia posted bogus clue analysis and nobody suspected them because of it. Overall The times people were dead set on killing someone based on a clue early on, they were always wrong. After seeing how wrong people were about clues, i don't trust clues this early at all. if you guys read how useless they were in other games, you probably won't either. Most if not all of the people that everyone is bandwagoning on from clues are going to be innocent. Mafia are prolly laughing at us this whole time. 2. The best players seem to catch a lot of mafia either by pms, logic, or traps in the thread. they also use a variety of plans like a list of people that medics can protect or have ways to confirm innocents. i dunno really how to do this but we should at least be trying instead of wasting time on clues. ill think about it some more and post ideas later. We would be wise to learn from the mistakes and successes of those before us. I feel a little confident now after reading all of that :D We already repeated a mistake that's happened a lot in lynching t_co. Let's not fall victim to any more of that. No more worrying about clues! | ||
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Ser Aspi
France84 Posts
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Ser Aspi
France84 Posts
Figuring out common patterns seems to be the best use of clue analysis right now so that we can use them when the clues get better. | ||
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France84 Posts
Mafia often seem to try to hide in da shadows while the town goes crazy with clues and accuses the people who are in the open the most like t_co. unfortunately they almost always kill innocents while doing so. We should be targeting the people on the fringes above all else. I think that instead of going crazy on clues we should force the people who are not really contributing to step up or die. Zona had the right idea before but he drowned out by the clue posts. I'll start. Hyperbola Cynanmachae JohannesH Ghote i don't trust any of you. All of you are sitting aside quietly not helping at all. Better start contributing or your red blood will fly. Everyone help contribute so we can get good information. | ||
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Ser Aspi
France84 Posts
I was trying to think of a better approach to use our time better. Let's give this a shot: This game mafia have had very little, if any pressure on them at all. Thus it's very logical to assume that they have been sitting back doing little if anything. After all if the mafia don't have to blend in, why would most of them bother. Sure a few might want to but the majority of the mafia have either posted extremely little, or posted some. Either way they have contributed nothing because they have no reason to. Here's what everyone can focus their attention on: Hit the all button, take a user, and search through all of their posts. What we are looking for is people who have made both unique contributions and people who post something that looks like it has content but in actuality is nothing. Look at their motivations for posting and see whether they just add useless information and parrot what others say or add real input of their own. By doing this we can help both find innocents and mafia, both of which are important. This is something I did for Zona and citizen that helped me establish the likelihood of their innocence. Given that citizen was rc'ed green, that becomes even more likely. This game has been incredibly active, way more so than most of the others here. We just need to find a way to make use of all that activity :D | ||
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Ser Aspi
France84 Posts
* DH knew bill murray. bill died. I told DH abenson was blue for various reasons. abenson died *The key problem was day 2. I make a post saying we should ease back on clues and look elsewhere for evidence. DH agreed with me, then promptly did an about face 180 without saying anything and voted for kane off of a clue. uhhh what da? DTs should check those who tried to save DrH early on and who were inactive otherwise. Derfboy comes to mind. Do it asap so you can relay to citizen and if we get a mafia someone can vigi them. | ||
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Ser Aspi
France84 Posts
Abenson wasn't blue btw lol. | ||
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Ser Aspi
France84 Posts
On January 30 2010 13:41 flamewheel91 wrote: Well, the game is slowing down now Was fun. Well we are either on to something and the mafia are just playing along to save their remaining members or we are hopelessly wrong and they don't want to change it. Either way everyone is pretty chill so we just gotta wait til we see some more blood. | ||
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