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Incognito's TL Mafia XVI - Page 6

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citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
January 26 2010 12:59 GMT
#1359
Maybe, I am still making up my mind. Any other suspects based on night three? I Amazon bit busy early on, will take a look a bit later.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
January 26 2010 13:00 GMT
#1360
LOL @ autocomplete
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
January 26 2010 13:52 GMT
#1361
what do we make of this:

Zona noticed that even the air was gradually growing harsh and stifling. He was starting to have difficulty breathing. The thick air stuck to the back of his throat and filled his nostrils, making him feel dizzy and drowsy. He tried to fight the sensation but couldn't and keeled over, unconscious. A man with a scarf wrapped around his face appeared above him, looking perfectly at home in the oppressive atmosphere.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
January 26 2010 17:13 GMT
#1362
Mind blowing levels of activity today, you have to slow down a bit guys!
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
January 26 2010 17:32 GMT
#1364
On January 26 2010 22:52 citi.zen wrote:
what do we make of this:

Show nested quote +
Zona noticed that even the air was gradually growing harsh and stifling. He was starting to have difficulty breathing. The thick air stuck to the back of his throat and filled his nostrils, making him feel dizzy and drowsy. He tried to fight the sensation but couldn't and keeled over, unconscious. A man with a scarf wrapped around his face appeared above him, looking perfectly at home in the oppressive atmosphere.


Finally a live one! Any guesses on the above Dr?
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
January 26 2010 18:39 GMT
#1369
Yesterday you voted for Kane, no? I am confused.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
January 26 2010 19:47 GMT
#1384
Yeah... by all means lets get down to business: who are our suspects?
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
January 26 2010 20:26 GMT
#1396
Right, not exactly realted to Ng5's post, but a good observation about Mystlord.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
January 26 2010 20:58 GMT
#1398
What do people think of the Mystlord connection:

Zona noticed that even the air was gradually growing harsh and stifling. He was starting to have difficulty breathing. The thick air stuck to the back of his throat and filled his nostrils, making him feel dizzy and drowsy. He tried to fight the sensation but couldn't and keeled over, unconscious. A man with a scarf wrapped around his face appeared above him, looking perfectly at home in the oppressive atmosphere.


+ possible connection with "eye'm the strongest" quote from earlier.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
January 26 2010 23:05 GMT
#1419
But clawing vs. strangling is interesting.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
January 26 2010 23:47 GMT
#1430
On January 27 2010 06:45 Ng5 wrote:
Show nested quote +

Left by himself, Faronel was starting to feel nervous as he saw his comrades leaving one by one and not returning. "Guys?" he called, sounding torn between trying to keep his voice down and wanting it to carry. "Where are you?" Nothing answered him but the faint rustle of the grass. Unnerved by the eerie appearance of the cemetery at night, Faronel decided that he should leave. He had only gone a few steps, however, when someone tapped on his shoulder. Automatically, he turned to look and saw a large fist descending toward his head. He barely dodged out of the way in time. His attacker let out a loud, barbaric bellow and charged at him. Backing quickly toward the cemetery gates, Faronel tried to fend him off as best he could. But he wasn't nearly strong enough to fight off his attacker, who picked him up bodily and smashed his head repeatedly against a gravestone until he died. Dropping his limp body to the ground, his attacker then pawed through Faronel's pockets, searching for food, before he trudged off into the night.


Wait a minute...

I don't know much about wrestling, but... Someone could look into it. A wrestler! It's usual in wrestling to grab the other's face trying to hit them to solid objects, no? Or some kind of modern-age gladiator 'reality show'? There was also one with... Bucket heads and blunt objects trying to push each other off of planks into water, no? It could fit the... Geez.

It could fit the PAIL! There was this gladiator or what show. They had bucket-helmets like those from rugby and they tried to kick each other off of planks (pails) into water or nets or whatever.

And then there's the wrestler thing. It could be two mafia members, but both worth researching I think.

With keywords like... Sledgehammer... Barbaric... Or animalistic?

Again it takes a lot of strength to grab someone by the head...

Wait... I just google image findered Mystlord and what did it drop right off the bat?

Mystlord

Hammer.

Bucket helm.

Even if the post wasn't made by a user called Mystlord. It was dropped to a Mystlord search.


This post is what clue checking is about. Excellent work.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
January 26 2010 23:57 GMT
#1432
Mystlord methinks.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
January 27 2010 00:05 GMT
#1434
Mystlord is now no 2 on my list, we sure will test the theeory, especially if we double lynch!
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
January 27 2010 03:07 GMT
#1466
A few of you may have noticed that today I have not been very active analyzing clues. I preferred to sit back and watch others argue, and whenever possible, encouraged the conversation. It was an informational exercise. I was also very active off the forum, through personal messages.

I submit to you our first real plan to clean up our town.

I am going to make the argument that we need to lynch DoctorHelvetica. Also, we need to vote for a double lynching, so we can move quickly once he is gone.

The arguments below come primarily from my own doubts, strengthened by an alleged detective who contacted me on their own. Two other players contacted me with an independent effort to lynch DoctorHelvetica. Together, these bits of information paint a pretty strong case. At this time, all participants will remain anonymous (even to each other), for safety reasons.

Facts:

1.Clue from day 1 - "He pulled out a thin knife and ran forward to stab Qatol in the chest." was checked and confirmed to point to DoctorHelvetica, according to the alleged detective. I have not had much contact with this source, but if it turns out they are lying, I will post their name on the forum and we go from there.

2. I’ve had a PM exchange with DoctorHelvetica, after he privately told Zona I had been checked by a detective and came up green. At that point in time he had no reason to trust Zona, but he chose to share that information with him nonetheless. DoctoHelvetica himself admits he was careless – either because he was a green making an honest mistake, or because he is mafia who did not have any reason to care/worry about another player's safety and the town's ability to coordinate their efforts. Given his otherwise careful nature and active behavior in this thread, you need to decide for yourselves which version makes more sense. Note how, towards the end of the exchange, when he runs out of arguments, he ends up trying to convince me to lynch keit instead. Read from bottom to top, my posts are in green and any bold highlights were added by me:

Original Message:

I can post my PM conversation with Zona if you'd like. Something like that would be pretty hard to fake.

Also, keit has strong clues from day 1 connecting to him, has been mostly inactive, and just popped in the thread out of nowhere: not to defend himself, but to point his finger at me.

That screams mafia to me.

-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
Right, I think night two I am a prime target for a mafia hit, thanks to that postmortem post.

In the end I would love to think you just made an error and took a chance. However, if your communication with Zona (and maybe others?) was deliberate/mafia, nobody will pick-up on that once I get killed. Once again, I wish there was a safe I could lock information in and make it available if I die, just so it does not get lost.

Anyway... why keit?


-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
That's a fair point. However, killing someone who is confirmed to the entire town as green, because of Bill Murrays post-death post, they might suspect other blues will network through you and hit you for that reason.

Once medics start dying, I'm guessing you'll be a prime suspect.

That being said, I won't ask you to trust me, but I would ask you to reconsider pushing for my lynch. At the very least, I'll submit to you keit is a better and more sure target for the town as of now.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:

Again, I think this is wrong: yes, I would have made a good target IF THEY DID NOT KNOW WHO THE DETECTIVE WAS. If they did know, they could sever that trust/information link by just killing him. This is what happened, so I became rather useless. Now, Bill did post after death that I was green, but this should not have happened - it was a violation of the rules. In principle I should have been useless to the town at that point, who cares if I claimed to be green, nobody would have believed me, exactly as the mafia would have intended it. And they could use another hit on someone else with a chance of hitting a blue.


-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
I suppose that is true. However, you were not hit. You certainly would have made a better target than Abenson if the mafia had reason to suspect you were co ordinating with blues.

Although I do admit it was something I shouldn't have done, I guess I was a bit too trusting there. We're probably both suspicious to the town at this time, since we are the only two people who 100% knew BM was a detective.

That being said, I find it strange you're voting for my lynching on those grounds.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
Its not important if the mafia knows I'm green - that is true.

It IS however important if he knows other greens/blues know it too, because then they would want to stop any coordination and/or information flow. The best situation for the mafia is when greens/blues know nothing and suspect everyone. So if the mafia knows I a in contact with a blue, even if they don't know who the blue is, it DOES make me a target. By killing me they can sever that link and annul any role-check advantage.

So I continue to be puzzled as to why you chose to make that information known to someone who was not role-checked.

Of course, I guess if it was an honest mistake, there is no way to argue /defend it, it just happened.


-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
hm? I didn't talk to zona much. like I said before, whether or not he knows your green isn't a big deal.
I never told him Bill Murray was the detective or anything like that.

From the way he posts and the way he talked to me, I'm pretty sure he is pro-town, i can't be 100% certain and that is why I didn't reveal any information that would be critical to mafia lynching decisions.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
The thing I still don't get is why you decided to trust Zona without any proof whatsoever.

-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
I've posted in defense of myself multiple times.

I'd think people would think again before moving to lynch the most active townie, but I suppose not. The mafia really hurt me by killing Bill Murray, even though it was easily detectable that he was a blue from his public posts :/
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
There is a growing movement to lynch you next. I would really love to hear your side of things and believe you are green/blue.


3. Bill Murray connection. As far as I can tell, Bill told two people he was a detective: DoctorHelvetica and myself. Others may or may not have suspected it, but there was no way of being sure.

4. Posting behavior: in the last analysis DoctorHelvetica posted on page 67, I believe he clearly leaves out many obvious clues and chooses to focus, yet again, on keit, hobbes and flamewheel. On page 68 I specifically ask for his opinion on this clue:

Zona noticed that even the air was gradually growing harsh and stifling. He was starting to have difficulty breathing. The thick air stuck to the back of his throat and filled his nostrils, making him feel dizzy and drowsy. He tried to fight the sensation but couldn't and keeled over, unconscious. A man with a scarf wrapped around his face appeared above him, looking perfectly at home in the oppressive atmosphere.


You’ve all seen DoctorHelvetica's response – he cannot think of ANY suspect for the above clue. I find the connection to Mystlord obvious - decide for yourself how strong or weak it is, but it is undeniably there! Furthermore, he continues to ignore references to Mystlord for the next few pages - he does not even acknowledge others picked him as a likely suspect. This is just not balanced behavior from an honest Sheriff, who also happens to be our most active poster and a past keen reader of clues.

In summary: there are clues pointing to DoctorHelvetica; there is a report from a player claiming a clue-check confirmed he is indeed mafia; he chose to share potentially sensitive information with players he had no reason to trust; his posting behavior seems shaky.

One more thing I want to reiterate: if we lynch DoctorHelvetica and he turns green, I will reveal the name of the supposed clue-checker, as well as make public conversations with other players who privately argued strongly in favor of lynching DoctorHelvetica.

This is an important junction in our game - we are finally close to solid leads rather than endless speculation based solely on vague clues. We need to vote for a double lynch today so we have it available after we lynch DoctorHelvetica - regardless of how it turns out he is the key information node. I am coordinating with an alleged vigilante as well, so we should be able to get the mafia KP down to 2 one way or another.

My votes:

YES to double lynching;

YES to lynching DoctorHelvetica.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
January 27 2010 03:18 GMT
#1469
You brought keit up, not I, when we were just discussing your error in judgment. Read your inbox... or the exchange above.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
January 27 2010 03:25 GMT
#1473
I accept your right to provide an alternative. I also respectfully reject it as inferior, for all the reasons stated above.

I've made my case as clearly as I could, please read my post carefully and decide for yourselves.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
January 27 2010 03:48 GMT
#1480
Right now protection is not important: a day cycle is coming, with a lynching. We will know how it turns out. Then I will share all other info I have, depending on how it turns out. At that point it will matter much less if I die. I think the mistake was to leave me live this long.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
January 27 2010 03:53 GMT
#1485
On January 27 2010 12:47 Mystlord wrote:
It's a fair case to lynch DH, but we HAVE to consider the possibility that the DT who clue checked DH is mafia. Earlier, we saw a fair case to lynch DH based off of the thin knife clue brought up by keit, but it never gained traction considering how much steam the kane]deth[ idea had. At this point, a mafia member could have thought to sow the seeds of confusion and make a plot to lynch DH.

At this point, the fact of the matter is that either keit or DoctorHelvetica is innocent. One is absolutely a townie, because we cannot have two people making such great pushes for each other to be lynched as both mafia. Therefore, the possible combinations are: mafia vs townie and townie vs townie. I personally highly doubt a townie vs townie situation because of the fact that by lynching the other, the person pushing for the lynch will almost certainly appear innocent. Therefore, I believe that we have a mafia vs townie situation.

In that line of thinking, confirming the identity of one will confirm the identity of the other. By lynching DH, we'll know keit's true colors, and by lynching keit, we'll know DH's true colors. Therefore, the question now becomes who to lynch?

My personal vote is for keit. Here's my reasoning:

If we lynch DoctorHelvetica, we lose a vital power that will almost certainly confirm whether a person is mafia or not, as well as protect a vital blue or townie (if things get that desperate). Therefore, in this situation, where we're unsure as to the guilt or innocence of either player, we have to make the decision to try and save our powers as best as possible, especially considering the fact that we have lynched no mafia. Therefore, we have a lot more to lose from lynching DoctorHelvetica and finding out that he's green/blue, versus lynching keit and finding out that he's green/blue.

One final point on this. We have to realize that at this point, we for sure for sure have at least two clues on one mafia member. We have 8 clues for 7 mafia, so we're looking for repeating themes. If there's one repeating theme that I've seen, it's almost certainly referring to the cookie monster. Whether it's the apple shoving down the throat from day 1, or the barbarous nature of either the 2nd or 3rd attack from day 2, we've seen a lot more evidence pointing to keit than to DH. Therefore, I again emphasize my vote to lynch keit.


In case you haven't been reading between the lines Myst, I will either use the vigilante hit or one of the double lynches against you if DrH turns red. The fact that you (again) agree with DrH thus fails to impress me much.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
January 27 2010 04:42 GMT
#1494
On January 27 2010 13:23 Mystlord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 27 2010 12:59 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:
On January 27 2010 12:47 Mystlord wrote:
It's a fair case to lynch DH, but we HAVE to consider the possibility that the DT who clue checked DH is mafia. Earlier, we saw a fair case to lynch DH based off of the thin knife clue brought up by keit, but it never gained traction considering how much steam the kane]deth[ idea had. At this point, a mafia member could have thought to sow the seeds of confusion and make a plot to lynch DH.

At this point, the fact of the matter is that either keit or DoctorHelvetica is innocent. One is absolutely a townie, because we cannot have two people making such great pushes for each other to be lynched as both mafia. Therefore, the possible combinations are: mafia vs townie and townie vs townie. I personally highly doubt a townie vs townie situation because of the fact that by lynching the other, the person pushing for the lynch will almost certainly appear innocent. Therefore, I believe that we have a mafia vs townie situation.

In that line of thinking, confirming the identity of one will confirm the identity of the other. By lynching DH, we'll know keit's true colors, and by lynching keit, we'll know DH's true colors. Therefore, the question now becomes who to lynch?

My personal vote is for keit. Here's my reasoning:

If we lynch DoctorHelvetica, we lose a vital power that will almost certainly confirm whether a person is mafia or not, as well as protect a vital blue or townie (if things get that desperate). Therefore, in this situation, where we're unsure as to the guilt or innocence of either player, we have to make the decision to try and save our powers as best as possible, especially considering the fact that we have lynched no mafia. Therefore, we have a lot more to lose from lynching DoctorHelvetica and finding out that he's green/blue, versus lynching keit and finding out that he's green/blue.

One final point on this. We have to realize that at this point, we for sure for sure have at least two clues on one mafia member. We have 8 clues for 7 mafia, so we're looking for repeating themes. If there's one repeating theme that I've seen, it's almost certainly referring to the cookie monster. Whether it's the apple shoving down the throat from day 1, or the barbarous nature of either the 2nd or 3rd attack from day 2, we've seen a lot more evidence pointing to keit than to DH. Therefore, I again emphasize my vote to lynch keit.


Killing keit will not reveal Dr.H's true colors. Even though I currently suspect Dr.H, if we kill keit and he turns up green, all this shows us is that we have once again mis-analyzed the clues. It does not necessarily mean that Dr.H is mafia, anymore than any of our other incorrect lynches have proved that the people who suggested them were mafia. If we kill keit and he turns up red, that could just suggest that the Mafia decided to sacrifice one of their least active members to save their biggest, most active member, which would not be such a bad strategy.

I still don't see the reasoning behind the fact that keit brought up the clue reference in the first place. If it wasn't for him, DoctorHelvetica would never have been accused. Why would a mafia initiate the charges against DH? It would make sense if DH was already under heavy suspicion and keit become the primary advocate of lynching DH and brought up that clue reference, but that isn't the case here.

However, I do see your point. I still feel that if we lose the incarceration power, we're in some deep shit.

@citi.zen: Yes, I could tell that you would vote to lynch me if DoctorHelvetica flipped red. I know that you won't believe me when I say that my argument is in favor of the town, but it is. Regardless of whether or not you agree, I'd at least like for you to respond to my argument rather than merely brush it off as an attempt to save my own skin. I acknowledge that DoctorHelvetica might be guilty, but I fear rushing into lynching an important townie much more.

Wait a second... If the Sheriff gets lynched, do we have another election to vote for a new Sheriff to replace DH? If so, then my argument is moot.


Hobbes answered you already, and you seem to acknowledge that above (bolded): keit is not on the critical information path. His lynching will not even give us useful information about DrH, let alone yield 2 other clear suspects.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
January 27 2010 04:46 GMT
#1496
Fine, what part of that post did you "perfect"?
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
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