EPTTL Mafia XV - Page 2
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
Nowhere am I seeing a reason why I should pass the info on to Ace specifically, it seems any 2 people would give us the ability to keep the info alive. Of course if I pass on to even 1 mafia, I could be dead along with the other innocent so maybe I should pass it on? Let's put this in perspective: None of our plans require a protected office holder - the vet plan and DT plans are independent of Ace and I. Neither of us have claimed DT or medic or anything. So if both BGs are red and Ace and I get killed and the names of the BGs die we are just back to having the same two people dead and having to find reds based on behavior. So if we hold on to the info we just lose a potential gain, and just lose a good player + me. Which is bad but giving the info to a mafia helps them bluesnipe by taking two potential names off the list. Even if the mafia know the BGs would they really want to kill them? I dunno. One thing I saw: If Ace is red, he couldn't really kill me and stay alive cuz the odds of the third party being mafia are low although if the 3rd part was and both bgs were red and ace was green that could be a train wreck. Dunno where I'm going with that but the next paragraph is the one that will actually have a point to it. Passing the info on helps town only if both bgs are red. If one bg is green then passing it on only increases the risk the reds get the other name. If both bgs are green then we'd want no one knowing, not even me, because passing it on just increases the risk the mafia can zero in on blues easier or kill leaders to spread havoc or... there was one other thing they could do with it but it just fell out of my brain. Well another important point I need to say at some point is to remind you that town can kill ace or I at any time, the mafia are just deprived the strategic option of killing us unless they know the names of BGs so again there is only the potential benefit lost of having two red names and then losing them (but they would be unlikely to hand us those names in the first place, see next paragraph). Now here is why I think that the BGs are actually probably both (or maybe 1) green. I would say double red is the least likely. If the mafia had known my thinking they would probably would have gone double red to but I don't think they thought this deep (TL Mafia is usually made up of level 1/2 moves I don't see many crazy plans because they are too risky and usually blow up if they ever do get played). This is a brand new and weird mechanic. I think the mafia would look at it and not be sure what to do with it and decide to play a normal game rather than hand over a list of two people with two reds on it to an innocent player. Sorry if that was awfully jumbled the sleep deprivation is finally getting to me but hopefully I will be on adderall soon so I can focus on things again lol. | ||
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
On October 25 2009 11:27 L wrote: not passing on the info at all was.. a poor decision. can you tell us more about the behavioral clues without giving us names? or would it be too obvious? You're the one that was arguing along with me against Ace to not pass it on. WTF. One BG wanted me to not pass it on and another wanted me to pass it on to one person. I guess maybe that's suspicious but whatever we aren't dead yet we can figure it out now. I'm definitely not really focused on this game but whatever too late now I'll do my best. | ||
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
We could have helped him determine his sanity with the Motbob plan but he's sure of Motbob's innocence for no reason. We won't be able to check his sanity now because we'll be too afraid to kill someone who might be the medic. Judge won't be able to help because he can't come forward and say Ace is a liar unless he is a blue role other than Medic. If he is medic, than I guess he could privately claim blue to Ace but then he would want to publicly claim green or we lose the fucking medic but if he claims green publicly when blue than Ace's story gets out of whack and we lose our trust in the DT. I think we have to be more on guard against a fake DT this game because we can kill a few innocents and not prove shit about whether the DT is fake or not. Fuck, if push comes to shove and a fake DT gets called out on a shit ton of contradictions he can always just say he guessed his state wrong and blame it on someone else. As for passing on the info, I'd love to do that to a confirmed townie but I don't think it is worth it for anything less than that. I also find it really unlikely that if the bgs were mafia they wouldn't have killed us night 1. We keep BG names secret in normal games. I fail to see how spreading the names outweighs the risk, especially at this point. Ace roleclaimed DT before the end of Night 1 for god sakes. If both BGs are red and Ace isn't and they didn't hit us both last night then the reds must be confident that even as a DT he is better alive than dead. If there is at least one innocent BG (I'd put this well over 50% chance at this point, probably over 90%), then keeping the BGs secret is the optimal play. I'm trying to think of a reason for the reds to slow play a two BG set up and all of the reasons suck. Confirmed innocents are likely to happen relatively rapidly. Ace could become one soon. I am starting to think we don't have a vet but I will pass on the info if I find someone I feel I can trust. So I guess maybe Ace thinks that if Judge is medic then the mafia won't kill him for fear of confirming a BG protected DT? Maybe, but if so I better keep the BG names well hidden to protect Ace and I can give him the BG names once he's confirmed. | ||
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
On October 25 2009 18:29 Ace wrote: and for fucking sakes read the OP and the thread. As long as I always publicly post what roles I find it doesn't matter. They have a KP of TWO. It'll be pretty hard for them to just up and easily kill judge. duh? If medics can protect themselves then yes. On October 25 2009 18:29 Ace wrote: Do you get it now? If you give me the names, I can role check them Nights 2 and 3. Judge has already flipped blue for me. Once I check them WHATEVER COLOR THEY FLIP VIRTUALLY GUARANTEES MY SANITY. Do. You. Understand? 'Fraid not. Why would you check more than one of the BGs? And you'd still have 2 possible sanities left as far as I can tell since you still don't know what Judge really is. [QUOTE]On October 25 2009 18:29 Ace wrote: Judge has flipped blue - doesn't matter if he's a medic or not none of us know my sanity. Mafia can't fucking kill him because if I check the BGs also it confirms my sanity by Night 2. [Quote] It does matter somewhat because unless you or judge are mafia is is confirmed that if Judge is blue, he's a medic. So they at least now would know they don't have to worry about hitting a vet or a less valuable blue. [QUOTE]On October 25 2009 18:29 Ace wrote: Bodyguards are gauranteed blue. If I rolecheck them it doesn't matter what color they flip. I know what color they should be. This eliminates 4 of the 6 possible DT combinations. How hard is this to understand? It isn't and all this stalling your doing just keeps making the case against you stronger. [/QUOTE] You haven't managed to jedi mind trick me out of wondering whether or not you are a DT or not in the first place by completely ignoring the issue. I don't see why you need both either. Anyway we can discuss it further there's no reason to get pissed off when DTs can't check during the day anyway. | ||
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
Mafia Bodyguards, with the exception of the Godfather, show up as Mafia to Rolechecks oh shit I didn't realize that part. yet another reason I doubt we have two mafia bgs at this point. | ||
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
Let's say they appear "red" to me. Same thing. However let's also say I keep rolechecking people and I never see another "red". Ever. Or I rolechecked someone, who appeared "green" to me, they ended up dying and flipped a BLUE role. Both bodyguards are Mafia because if they were really BLUE they should have appeared "green" to me, not "red" because a legit BLUE just died and flipped "green" to me. Earlier on you said you would know your sanity if you just checked the two bgs. But now you admit the caveats that I was having earlier. So why were you calling me retarded? Stop being an ass and maybe you will get the trust you are seeking. There would still have to be people dying or additional checks to figure out your sanity. Motbob wasn't inactive, stop trying that shit. As for motbob, posting one post about how you can't post is being inactive. No one else has been that quiet. Anyway I think we have enough going on to lynch on something other than inactivity so let's drop the motbob brouhaha but don't BM anyone for calling him inactive. if I was really Mafia I'd be an idiot for letting you know about the BG switch AND putting myself up to the magnifying glass Finally, after about a million condescending posts you decide to see the game from someone else's point of view and start addressing my original concerns (namely, why should I believe you?) rather than just assert you are a DT, state a plan based on you being a DT, and then bitch at me for not following the plan. However, this isn't super convincing. I don't know what you mean by "letting you know about the BG switch". Please clarify. It might be what I'm looking for, it might be irrelevant, but please clarify. As for putting yourself up to the looking glass, that can be said about any time mafia fakes a role claim. Obviously, they'd be wanting to draw attention to themselves to cause chaos and do as much damage as possible before they get killed. It was common sense that at that point you could trust me with the BG names because if both BGs are legit and ended up dying the next night then obviously who's the only person that could be Mafia? Me. We've already explained that if the mafia got ahold of the BGs, they could use the BG list to avoid hitting BGs just as much as they could use it to hit them. If the pardoner was red, why would the mafia want to kill the BGs? They'd probably want to see how many pardons they could get away with using without drawing too much suspicion. Plus, they'd want their elected member to be the loud one drawing attention to himself and swaying the town while the other stay silent, maybe by faking DT. And faking DT in this game is easier and more profitable than in most as I explained earlier. And what role check would be easier to fake than the BGs, since the mafia are guaranteed to know the roles of the BGs since they get to decide them in this ruleset? You mean you should go re-read Mafia 8 to see how Ace deals with DTs that can't be confirmed or DTs that accuse people without the ability to be proven. Both of which have already been bypassed this game. Ding-Dong is anyone home over there? Roles were revealed on death in that game so this situation is no better than in Mafia VIII; in fact, this situation is worse because of how much easier it is to fake DT here (for reasons explained above + sanity mechanic, etc.). Why would he bring attention to the fact that bodyguards can be subbed in? If he was was Mafia he would have kept that aspect quiet, hoping no one believed it. Oh so this is the argument I didn't understand earlier. In other words, mafia will always assume that no one reads the rules. Not persuasive. He also wouldn't have run for a role and just killed 2 possible innocents in office on Night 1 A big name mafia wouldn't run for a role? Why not? Big names get unwelcome attention if they survive too long without BG protection. I don't get the second part about "just killed 2 possible innocents in office on Night 1". He roleclaims DT on Day 2. He said he had a plan on Day 1 and wanted some critical information. He also supported the Vet idea. Why? If he was Mafia surely he'd want to kill the bodyguards if Pyrr gave him the info... Actually you roleclaimed night 1 and survived, suggesting the Bgs are innocent but why would the mafia put bgs in if they had a pardoner that could browbeat pyrr into handing the names over (which you were asking for before elevating to the DT claim). however he publicly roleclaimed on Day 2 and posted the result of his check. Damn. No Mafia fake claiming a DT would ever do that because now he is accountable on multiple fronts. Telling us the alignments of the BGs doesn't prove dick because the mafia know those alignments. Hence my suggestion to kill judge because then you would actually gain some progress towards finding your sanity if you are really a DT and if you aren't you will actually be accountable. If you are a real DT then killing a few innocents won't matter for shit cuz once we have you as a confirmed and protected DT it'll be gg no re. Now if both BGs are red we could run into trouble but I think I'll be able to pass the info on soon. Also if Ace was Mafia why hasn't he tried to accuse anyone by now, or lead the town to lynch an innocent? Because that would be hella suspicious at that point. We don't know motbob's alignment, but if it was red you'd be too busy saving guilty people to lynch an innocent. Conclusion: Ace may or may not be a DT. He either has a hard time seeing from the town's point of view or is faking shit. I will take this opporunity to role claim as Psychologist and let you know that Ace is a confirmed Asshole. Why are you so mean? :'( We made a great team last game... | ||
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
On October 26 2009 11:36 Ace wrote: That idea was not chosen. The idea was Vet confirmation. RoL has been bitching because I won't allow Motbob to die. I checked Judge and reveal it and now all of a sudden it's well why didn't you say to kil Judge? DURR. How many times do I have to tell you - no one is dying for confirmations. None. Unless there's a good argument for why someone should be lynched I'll pardon them. The Mafia have a measly KP of 2 and you're all hell bent on rolling people just because. Not happening. We chose BOTH ideas. They are not mutually exclusive in any way. And if we had stuck to both, we would have been fine if no vet came forward. | ||
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
On October 26 2009 13:14 Incognito wrote: In addition, proving your "alignment" doesn't prove that you're a DT, as Pyrr pointed out. I dunno if this fits anything I said. I've been working on the assumption that Ace is either DT or red but I guess he could be green faking DT to get people to listen more closely to his accusations later. We did have a lot of greens fake blue the last two games (foolishness saying he knew a vig in the speed game, RoL/infundi a few games ago [infundi was medic faking vig]). I guess it could be an ego thing since he is supposedly never wrong. | ||
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
On October 26 2009 16:12 Tricode wrote: I don't recall Ace saying he wanted to really lynch you guys. But my memory is fuzzy on it...maybe ROL but i don't recall to much of Ace actually suggesting or saying we should lynch any of you. Only some suspicion or giving his opinion about your abilities. Yeah that's correct he doesn't seem to want to lynch anybody. | ||
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
On October 26 2009 13:21 SugiuraMidori wrote: It would be neat if all the DT's could find each-other out Given the number of players and blue roles possible, I am guessing there is one DT in this game. Last game that Ver ran (speed game) there was one more red than blue (3 vs. 2). I think after mayor, pardoner, and BGs, there will be no more than 4 blues. 3 could be possible given the extra blue roles in this game and the low KP. Because of the new rules for DT and the reappearance of the mad hatter, I'd guess we have one of each of them. If we have 3 blues, there is probably no vig due to the mad hatter's similar role. And also no vet since no one has claimed. If we have 4 blues, I'd guess no vet just based off of no vet claiming. I really don't see a situation where we have two DTs. | ||
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
On October 27 2009 05:50 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: i think all the walls of text and hostility are making people scared to post Yeah we've been to mean  | ||
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