EPTbut i don't mean to split hairs, all kudos to GAM for playing a hilariously unexpected game.
Samsung win the 2017 World Championship! - Page 23
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Join the LiquidLegends 2017 Worlds Pick'em Group! Ban bets!! Ban bets will continue for the duration of Worlds. You can place bet at any phase of Worlds; on individual games, series, whatever your heart desires. Bans will be enacted the day after Worlds ends, to ensure everyone can still post on LL while Worlds is ongoing. glhf~ - Winners in bold - better, better's win condition, bettee [ban duration for loser] - Yorbon, EDG fails to make it out of groups, vs DarkCore [1 week] - Sleight, Fnatic doesn't make it out of groups, vs AlterKot [2:1 weeks] - Apex, Gigabyte getting out of groups as a 1st place seed + TSM will finish 1st in their groups + Samsung will fail to qualify from their group + C9 will get out of their groups, vs JimmiC [1 week] - geript, Korean teams will win a combined 17 or more games in Groups, vs Gahlo [1 month] - geript, NA teams will win a combined 7 or less games in Groups, vs Torchise [1 month] - zer0das, SKT doesn't win Worlds, vs no one [1 year] - Zato-1, NA teams combined wins will be greater than or equal to EU teams combined wins, vs Yorbon [1 month] | ||
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ticklishmusic
United States15977 Posts
but i don't mean to split hairs, all kudos to GAM for playing a hilariously unexpected game. | ||
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Gahlo
United States35173 Posts
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NeoIllusions
United States37500 Posts
On October 06 2017 03:02 Numy wrote: Oh can anyone tell me why Ryze is suddenly being picked again? He still seems bad? He has solid damage post 2, ramp that up a ton late game, oddly durable thanks to his passive, and competitive League is where you can make the most of his ult. I'll have to look at Mid MUs later to assess why he fell off in the past few months but I think he's quite staple, maybe a tier below Ori. | ||
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geript
10024 Posts
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Numy
South Africa35471 Posts
On October 06 2017 03:11 Gahlo wrote: My favorite part of GAM games when they pull of crazy shit is that the throng of idiots on reddit come out and go "See!? Trying to play like the Koreans is wrong, you need to find your own style and play that!" while completely failing to notice that a) it wasn't against Koreans b) Fnatic is trash and c) you can't just have some insane strat prepared for every game. While they a bit misguided I don't think it's completely wrong. If you look at the championship winning teams out of Korea, all of them have a base game they play but they also have other strats they have prepared to execute if the opportunity arises. The criticism that Western teams just try copy Korea is valid to the extent that they just seem to believe playing the "base" game is always correct while they ignore all the variations each team brings. Even SKT the posterchild of playing the base game always used to bring out some interesting mid series strats to try edge out leads. GAM may have taken this to the extreme but it shows some willingness to work outside of the box. Do G2 ever play anything outside the box? Do Fnatic anymore? TSM used to do the same thing. Sit back and play the base game in every single situation. Having insane strats is worthwhile and does work out. Having a solid base to work off those strats is arguably what makes championship winning teams the best. Teams that always play on the backfoot trying to "absorb" pressure don't go the distance. People cite SKT as that type of team, ignoring all the times they went on the front foot to dictate pace of time and abuse the shit out of the enemy. On October 06 2017 03:12 NeoIllusions wrote: He has solid damage post 2, ramp that up a ton late game, oddly durable thanks to his passive, and competitive League is where you can make the most of his ult. I'll have to look at Mid MUs later to assess why he fell off in the past few months but I think he's quite staple, maybe a tier below Ori. The buff he got was tiny wasn't it? Just seems odd he's suddenly picked all the time now when he's been absent for so long. | ||
GrandInquisitor
New York City13113 Posts
Same reason why NFL coaches are so hyper-conservative about 4th down playcalls. | ||
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Gahlo
United States35173 Posts
On October 06 2017 04:04 GrandInquisitor wrote: Teams don't prepare crazy strats in part because they get mocked and memed if they don't succeed. If you pick boring meta champs and lose, whatever. If you pick something even slightly unorthodox and lose it becomes a meme. Huni top Lucian is a good example. Same reason why NFL coaches are so hyper-conservative about 4th down playcalls. Dougy P using the analytics for 4th and 7(or was it 8?). Problem is that League is pretty shit at analytics, so it's usually a shot in the dark and hope it works. | ||
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geript
10024 Posts
On October 06 2017 04:10 Gahlo wrote: Dougy P using the analytics for 4th and 7(or was it 8?). Problem is that League is pretty shit at analytics, so it's usually a shot in the dark and hope it works. To be fair, stat wis last I checked going for it on more than 4th and 3 is a bad bet. | ||
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MooMooMugi
United States10531 Posts
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GrandInquisitor
New York City13113 Posts
Now, if TSM loses to anybody tomorrow, then we gotta start worrying. | ||
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Gahlo
United States35173 Posts
On October 06 2017 04:57 geript wrote: To be fair, stat wis last I checked going for it on more than 4th and 3 is a bad bet. It's more the situation of when it's done that matters. | ||
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geript
10024 Posts
On October 06 2017 06:23 Gahlo wrote: It's more the situation of when it's done that matters. I don't think that's true. Sure, 4th and X is rarely gone for expect near end of a half or game when the reward is far higher than the risk. In those situations the defense is specific for the distance usually. It's a matter of how easy it is to pick up 1-3 yards if that's all you aim for. You have multiple quick out options, various run options, various screen plays, etc. all of which can come out of the same offensive formation. But once you need to gain more than about 3 yards/meters, the odds of getting it are lower and the range of plays that are likely to pick up that distance go down. You need a bit more time to protect from a blitz and run blocking is less likely to be effective. | ||
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Gahlo
United States35173 Posts
On October 06 2017 07:21 geript wrote: I don't think that's true. Sure, 4th and X is rarely gone for expect near end of a half or game when the reward is far higher than the risk. In those situations the defense is specific for the distance usually. It's a matter of how easy it is to pick up 1-3 yards if that's all you aim for. You have multiple quick out options, various run options, various screen plays, etc. all of which can come out of the same offensive formation. But once you need to gain more than about 3 yards/meters, the odds of getting it are lower and the range of plays that are likely to pick up that distance go down. You need a bit more time to protect from a blitz and run blocking is less likely to be effective. Well yeah, the possibility of converting goes down when you get into less easier "just run it up the middle and have the line lean forward" distances. It's a matter of if the call fails, what happens that a lot of coaches play super safe about. For example, week 3 against the Giants, the Eagles were up 14-0 towards the end of the half and had a 4&7 or 8 just passed midfield and went for it. They didn't make it and when asked about it later, the analytics said that before that play the team had a 77% chance of winning the game, 80% if they made the 1st down, and 75% if they didn't. They didn't make it, but still won the game. The common trail of thought is assuming the worst thing possible will happen, failing to convert, giving the Giants a short field, and they score off of it. But if you were to tell somebody that that would only make a 2% difference down the line instead of giving them a nebulous 3-7 points, a lot more people would be willing to do it in that situation. | ||
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geript
10024 Posts
On October 06 2017 07:50 Gahlo wrote: Well yeah, the possibility of converting goes down when you get into less easier "just run it up the middle and have the line lean forward" distances. It's a matter of if the call fails, what happens that a lot of coaches play super safe about. For example, week 3 against the Giants, the Eagles were up 14-0 towards the end of the half and had a 4&7 or 8 just passed midfield and went for it. They didn't make it and when asked about it later, the analytics said that before that play the team had a 77% chance of winning the game, 80% if they made the 1st down, and 75% if they didn't. They didn't make it, but still won the game. The common trail of thought is assuming the worst thing possible will happen, failing to convert, giving the Giants a short field, and they score off of it. But if you were to tell somebody that that would only make a 2% difference down the line instead of giving them a nebulous 3-7 points, a lot more people would be willing to do it in that situation. I think the stats lie in many regards. Teams don't go for it enough on 4th down. That said, giving up a likely 3 points because you don't want to punt is equally bad. Given the scenario: 4th and 7.5 near the end of a half (likely <2 minutes) and you're past your 45; stats are in your favor to go for it even though you're unlikely to get a first down to continue the drive. Punting is playing for being able to stop the opponents which there isn't much difference statistically speaking between 45 yards and 80 yards. I'm all for looking at the stats of things, but I'm also for being cognizant. Going for things at the risk of 3 at least and possibly 7 points in a close game is a 2% risk for very little gain imo. | ||
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GrandInquisitor
New York City13113 Posts
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Zato-1
Chile4253 Posts
On October 06 2017 09:47 GrandInquisitor wrote: The two biggest factors in the 4th down question are not field position + likelihood of conversion, it's the current score + time remaining. Football is about maximizing the probability you end up with more points than the opposition, not just maximizing points, because the utility of points scored is non-linear. If you are down 2 with 2 minutes left, you'll go for it on 4th and 20, but if you're up 21 with 10 minutes left, you'll often punt even on 4th and inches. Agreed. As to the games- GAM vs. FNC was easily the best one, Fenerbahçe is completely outclassed, and EDG vs. ahq was just sad. Korea winning all its games was expected, but I hoped C9 and IMT would put up more of a fight. | ||
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Torchise
Canada245 Posts
On October 06 2017 02:04 Yorbon wrote: It's impossible for me to watch the games live, so ill start my vodwatching now. I heard EDG performed as expected xD For those that don't know, you can go on the eventvods website to watch all the games in the most spoiler-free way possible, if you care about that. Use the Youtube links provided since eventvods embeds the VOD directly while hiding the video length, suggested videos, etc. compared to directly watching the games on Youtube. | ||
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Gahlo
United States35173 Posts
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Torchise
Canada245 Posts
On October 06 2017 11:34 Gahlo wrote: I'd had issues getting that site to load, so the subreddit https://www.reddit.com/r/LoLeventVoDs/ is a nice backup. I also had an issue with the EventVods website, for some reason, if you use an adblocker (like uBlock Origin), it will not display correctly (e.g. the Youtube links will be missing). I disabled it just for this site (there are no ads anyway) and everything works correctly. The subreddit you mentioned was my go-to previously but it wasn't a good enough solution to prevent spoilers. Better than nothing, though. | ||
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Gahlo
United States35173 Posts
On October 06 2017 11:58 Torchise wrote: I also had an issue with the EventVods website, for some reason, if you use an adblocker (like uBlock Origin), it will not display correctly (e.g. the Youtube links will be missing). I disabled it just for this site (there are no ads anyway) and everything works correctly. The subreddit you mentioned was my go-to previously but it wasn't a good enough solution to prevent spoilers. Better than nothing, though. Yeah, you need to install the extension/addon if you do it through subreddit. | ||
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