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On December 11 2014 01:36 Hider wrote:
I have had some experiences where I was playing with high MMR players (like 3.7k mmr), but for some reason they made some obvious errors, and I really couldn't understand how he could be so highly ranked. But when you go throuh the profile, it becmes obvious that these types of players are clearly cheating on Hotlots. They only report wins, and you often see that they go from lvl 1 to lvl 3 with a hero without any games played inbetween. Moreover, the typically get matched up against mid-diamond players (like 3K MMR), which seems a bit unlikely if they really were midmasters.
Already seen a couple of these players today, and it wouldn't surprise me if at least 25% of master legue players are consistently cheating. Pretty annoying when these guys are trying to take te spot you are working for.
you can actually go from lvl 1 to lvl 3 in one game you know...
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First of all, everyone makes mistakes, you can have bad day etc its just easier to notice em on others when you are dead/running somewhere. Second thing is people jump from 1 to 3 without games appearing on hotslogs couse some just party/coop to get thru talent gate bullshit. And its a third party program you are complaining about, even if there are hotslogs cheaters it should not affect you in any way couse in game mmr is still there?
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On December 11 2014 03:23 GizmoPT wrote:Show nested quote +On December 11 2014 01:36 Hider wrote:
I have had some experiences where I was playing with high MMR players (like 3.7k mmr), but for some reason they made some obvious errors, and I really couldn't understand how he could be so highly ranked. But when you go throuh the profile, it becmes obvious that these types of players are clearly cheating on Hotlots. They only report wins, and you often see that they go from lvl 1 to lvl 3 with a hero without any games played inbetween. Moreover, the typically get matched up against mid-diamond players (like 3K MMR), which seems a bit unlikely if they really were midmasters.
Already seen a couple of these players today, and it wouldn't surprise me if at least 25% of master legue players are consistently cheating. Pretty annoying when these guys are trying to take te spot you are working for. you can actually go from lvl 1 to lvl 3 in one game you know...
So I looked over a coupe of these Guys profile. It's solo que. And I saw that trend consistently. There were lots of gmes missig. From like leve 2 to 4. 3 o 5 etc.
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People only reporting wins isn't cheating. People put too much stock in Hotslogs. It's a decent metric, but a lot of people will only upload their wins, and a lot of people (including me) don't bother to upload anything at all and our ranking is determined by which games one of the other 9 people involved want to upload. Self reported MMR is pretty much worthless. Just wait for the in-game ranking system to find out a more accurate ranking for yourself and before we start calling out anyone for "cheating"
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On December 11 2014 04:01 Hider wrote:Show nested quote +On December 11 2014 03:23 GizmoPT wrote:On December 11 2014 01:36 Hider wrote:
I have had some experiences where I was playing with high MMR players (like 3.7k mmr), but for some reason they made some obvious errors, and I really couldn't understand how he could be so highly ranked. But when you go throuh the profile, it becmes obvious that these types of players are clearly cheating on Hotlots. They only report wins, and you often see that they go from lvl 1 to lvl 3 with a hero without any games played inbetween. Moreover, the typically get matched up against mid-diamond players (like 3K MMR), which seems a bit unlikely if they really were midmasters.
Already seen a couple of these players today, and it wouldn't surprise me if at least 25% of master legue players are consistently cheating. Pretty annoying when these guys are trying to take te spot you are working for. you can actually go from lvl 1 to lvl 3 in one game you know... So I looked over a coupe of these Guys profile. It's solo que. And I saw that trend consistently. There were lots of gmes missig. From like leve 2 to 4. 3 o 5 etc.
I do levels 1-4 through cooperative now because solo que with talent-gates is a nightmare. Way too many angry 3k players out there...
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People only reporting wins isn't cheating.
Disagree with the definition you have of cheatig. I believe it's straight up cheating becasue your intentionlly manpulating the system to make your ranking look better. It's fair if you don't upload at all, but uploading only wins takes the purpose out of it. But w/e, it doesn't matter what we call it. I just find it annoying.
Self reported MMR is pretty much worthless
If it would be worthless, then you would find 0 correlation between skill and MMR. That's absolutely not true. It's a solid system if you look at your opponents/teammates MMR over a longer period, and for players with lots of games (like 250+). If you on the other hand you have an MMR of 3.5k and you almost only get matched up against 3kMMR players, it's more likely that your true skills is around there.
Just wait for the in-game ranking system to find out a more accurate ranking for yourself and before we start calling out anyone for "cheating"
Hotslogs gives one a goal/a target, and thus functions as a motivating tool. I think I wouldn't play HOTS right now if it wasn't for my goal to get to masters.
I do levels 1-4 through cooperative now because solo que with talent-gates is a nightmare. Way too many angry 3k players out there...
Yes, but then you wouldn't expect to see any level 1,2 or 3 games, but only level 4 games on Hotslogs. It's clear that in a lot of situations, there are games missing. Then ofc it can be argued whether both wins or losses or missing, but if you (a) have an unreasonable high win/rate, (b) You make obvious mistakes in game (that would be very unlikely for an actual master player to make), and (c) your teammates/opponents MMR are much lower than your (on a consistent basis), then it's a ton more likely that it's losses which are missing.
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A much better indication is checking the timings of the games. If people are doing what you're saying there will be win streaks where he or she randomly stop playing for a game length amount of time (the loss that wasn't uploaded). After a curious glance through a small sample I couldn't find anyone who met this criteria; it wouldn't surprise me that a few people slipped through the cracks and are abusing the system, but if you seriously believe a quarter of the master's league is abusing you're just delusional.
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On December 11 2014 05:36 Hider wrote:
Yes, but then you wouldn't expect to see any level 1,2 or 3 games, but only level 4 games on Hotslots. It's clear that in a lot of situations, there are games missing. Then ofc it can be argued whether both wins or losses or missing, but if you (a) have an unreasonable high win/rate, (b) You make obvious mistakes in game (that would be very unlikely for an actual master player to make), and (c) your teammates/opponents MMR are much lower than your (on a consistent basis), then it's a ton more likely that it's losses which are missing.
I make mistakes all the time. Sure I'll have more games of better judgement, but the thing with mobas is that there's very little mechanics involved and the win/loss is going to be decided on your decision-making. You can't just extrapolate a few instances of one game to account for a player's skill as a whole. Hell, no one seriously is going to run E.T.C., Diablo, Lili, and so on, but you still get them in pub games at high MMR, because soloQ is more a less casual.
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On December 11 2014 05:50 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:
A much better indication is checking the timings of the games. If people are doing what you're saying there will be win streaks where they randomly stop playing for a game length amount of time (the loss that wasn't uploaded). After a curious glance through a small sample I couldn't find anyone who met this criteria; it wouldn't surprise me that a few people slipped through the cracks and are abusing the system, but if you seriously believe a quarter of the master's league is abusing you're just delusional.
I thought of that too, but I don't think it's such a good method as it also will detect players that do not upload their games - regardless of whether its win or losses. Moreover, by looking at opponents/teamates MMR over 5-10 games, we can better see whether the MMR of tha person is flawed. This could occur even if he doesn't cheat, but if there is a flaw (in some specific situations) with Hotslogs.
I make mistakes all the time. Sure I'll have more games of better judgement, but the thing with mobas is that there's very little mechanics involved and the win/loss is going to be decided on your decision-making. You can't just extrapolate a few instances of one game to account for a player's skill as a whole. Hell, no one seriously is going to run E.T.C., Diablo, Lili, and so on, but you still get them in pub games at high MMR, because soloQ is more a less casual.
You are taking this completley out of context as you imply I only look at mistakes and base everything of that.
First of all, there are two types of mistakes: (1) Slight misjudgmenet. (2) You have no idea what your doing-mistakes. As in Sc2: If you see your opponent makes mass BC/Banshee and you just only build tanks or Mauauders to counter. Such a mistake has 0% probabiliy of occuring at higher MMR. I am obviously talking about the latter types of mistakes.
But even then, I don't base any accusations of just the lattter. Instead, what I have done in a couple of cases is to look at their match histories and see whether the "high MMR"-story makes sense.
For instance, I played with a 3.6K Jaina who played terribly in one game, and tried to gank an eney merc camp vs Illidan and Zeratul (?). When I looked at the match history, it was clear that there were somes games missing, but in general the player was being matched up aganst 3.3k+ playes quite consistently. Thus, the 3.6k MMR is not completely unreasonable and it was a possbility that she just was on tilt.
But instead, when every single factor just indicates that this players MMR is off, it seems very likely that it indeed is.
@ Percentage of people in master-League "cheating".
I ran through some profiles pretty quickly (like 15). 25% is admittely too high an estimate. Found only three that looks really sucpicious:
https://www.hotslogs.com/Player/MatchHistory?PlayerID=173101
https://www.hotslogs.com/Player/MatchHistory?PlayerID=226266
https://www.hotslogs.com/Player/MatchHistory?PlayerID=278431
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You actually don't need to be able to draw a distinction because missing games is not common. Even if I assumed everyone with a questionable match history was abusing, it still wouldn't be anywhere near 25% of master's league abusing.
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@Hider you really shouldn't be caring if some guy is misrepresenting himself on a meaningless third party MMR site. Hotslogs is kinda cool to look at, but at the end of the day it's a temporary system meant to tide over heroes players until the actual ranking system goes live, which will be soon. To address your point of not reporting at all my MMR is entirely at the whim of the other players in my game. Maybe someone on my team only reports wins so my losses aren't reported inflating my MMR, or vice versa. So again, that's not "fair" as you put it or an accurate display of my skill. To address your point about self reported MMR not being worthless because "If it were worthless, you would find 0 correlation between MMR and actual skill." That is an argument for MMR itself not being worthless. I said SELF REPORTED MMR is worthless because you will always have people only reporting wins and people not reporting at all and the system will never be accurate. Again, ignore anyone you think is "cheating" and wait for a much more objective system where all games will be automatically recorded and ranked in game. The points you are making are real and valid and would be serious issues if this was the permanent system, but as it is it is absolutely not worth a second of thought or complaint.
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On December 11 2014 06:09 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:
You actually don't need to be able to draw a distinction because missing games is not common. Even if I assumed everyone with a questionable match history was abusing, it still wouldn't be anywhere near 25% of master's league abusing.
I think there are lots of missing/not uploaded games at Hotslogs. I would say that at least 50% of the time my upload is "succesful", which means I am the one uploading the game. It's ofc possible that the game would be uploaded later on anyway, but I think there are lots of players who do not upload any replays at all.
Hider you really shouldn't be caring if some guy is misrepresenting himself on a meaningless third party MMR site. Hotslogs is kinda cool to look at, but at the end of the day it's a temporary system meant to tide over heroes players until the actual ranking system goes live, which will be soon.
The thing is. If you have this goal where you really want to get to rank X, and you try and work really hard to improve yourself, then it's just super annoying to see someone "taking your place" despite being less skilled (since master league is percentage-based I believe). Obviously it's not the end of the world, and I didn't plan to make a bigger deal out of it, if I hadn't received any replies.
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What is suspicious about the match histories you posted exactly?
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I understand the frustration I guess. The obvious solution is to beat out someone who is reporting all their games! Easy right? 
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On December 11 2014 06:41 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:
What is suspicious about the match histories you posted exactly?
They are consistently being matched up aganst players with a much lower MMR. The MMR of the opponents/teammates are around 600-1K below theirs (most of the time - yes you will see a couple of instances where they are matched up against a 3.6k player, but that's still a possiblity for a "true" 2.9k MMR player)
Compare that to the typical master league players and 85% of the time their teamates/opponents are 3k+. MMR.
Also, this one is probably the most extreme yet. This guy doesn't even have a high enough "true" MMR to be able meet diamond players more than 10% of the time.
https://www.hotslogs.com/Player/MatchHistory?PlayerID=170376).
Ok I will stop now and go back to playing. 
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On December 11 2014 06:45 Hider wrote:Show nested quote +On December 11 2014 06:41 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:
What is suspicious about the match histories you posted exactly? They are consistently being matched up aganst players with a much lower MMR. The MMR of the opponents/teammates are around 600-1K below theirs (most of the time - yes you will see a couple of instances where they are matched up against a 3.6k player, but that's still a possiblity for a "true" 2.9k MMR player) Compare that to the typical master league players and 85% of the time their teamates/opponents are 3k+. MMR. Also, this one is probably the most extreme yet. This guy doesn't even have a high enough "true" MMR to be able meet diamond players more than 10% of the time. https://www.hotslogs.com/Player/MatchHistory?PlayerID=170376). Ok I will stop now and go back to playing.
Holy crap you're salty as fuck.
I've had games with/against Equinox, So1dier, Idra, Luna, etc. while at the same time running up against platinum players. It's a freakin alpha and 6+ minute queues means the match making stretches out even further. The fact that you're so angry over a third-party site is ridiculous.
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On December 11 2014 07:19 ssxsilver wrote:Show nested quote +On December 11 2014 06:45 Hider wrote:On December 11 2014 06:41 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:
What is suspicious about the match histories you posted exactly? They are consistently being matched up aganst players with a much lower MMR. The MMR of the opponents/teammates are around 600-1K below theirs (most of the time - yes you will see a couple of instances where they are matched up against a 3.6k player, but that's still a possiblity for a "true" 2.9k MMR player) Compare that to the typical master league players and 85% of the time their teamates/opponents are 3k+. MMR. Also, this one is probably the most extreme yet. This guy doesn't even have a high enough "true" MMR to be able meet diamond players more than 10% of the time. https://www.hotslogs.com/Player/MatchHistory?PlayerID=170376). Ok I will stop now and go back to playing. Holy crap you're salty as fuck. I've had games with/against Equinox, So1dier, Idra, Luna, etc. while at the same time running up against platinum players. It's a freakin alpha and 6+ minute queues means the match making stretches out even further. The fact that you're so angry over a third-party site is ridiculous.
Yeh, I have had games with platinum players and top ranked players as well - even in the same game. If you think that takes away my point, your missing it completely.
What instead matters is the average over a decent sample size. On average I get matched up against players probably 200 MMR less than me (since there are fewer higher ranked MMR than lower ranked MMRs). But the examples I brought up have an average teammate/oppoennt MMR discrepancy that is much much higer than that (600+ - the last one is like 1500).
I would suggest you tone down your aggressivity, and instead take a comprehensive look at the match histories of these examples I brought up with the typical master league player. You will notice a big difference.
If you think this 3rdparty-site doesn't matter, that's fine. It matters to me though, and you don't have to respond to my comments.
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On December 11 2014 07:22 Hider wrote:Show nested quote +On December 11 2014 07:19 ssxsilver wrote:On December 11 2014 06:45 Hider wrote:On December 11 2014 06:41 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:
What is suspicious about the match histories you posted exactly? They are consistently being matched up aganst players with a much lower MMR. The MMR of the opponents/teammates are around 600-1K below theirs (most of the time - yes you will see a couple of instances where they are matched up against a 3.6k player, but that's still a possiblity for a "true" 2.9k MMR player) Compare that to the typical master league players and 85% of the time their teamates/opponents are 3k+. MMR. Also, this one is probably the most extreme yet. This guy doesn't even have a high enough "true" MMR to be able meet diamond players more than 10% of the time. https://www.hotslogs.com/Player/MatchHistory?PlayerID=170376). Ok I will stop now and go back to playing. Holy crap you're salty as fuck. I've had games with/against Equinox, So1dier, Idra, Luna, etc. while at the same time running up against platinum players. It's a freakin alpha and 6+ minute queues means the match making stretches out even further. The fact that you're so angry over a third-party site is ridiculous. Yeh, I have had games with platinum players and top ranked players as well. If you think that takes away my point, your basically missing it completely. What instead matters is the average over a decent sample size. On average I get matched up against players probably 200 MMR less than me (since there are fewer higher ranked MMR than lower ranked MMRs), but these guys have an average teammate/oppoennt MMR that is much much higer than that. I would suggest you tone down your voice, and instead look at the match histories of these examples I brought up with the typical master league player. You will notice a big difference.
You're the one whose taking a shot at me.
All I said was that it's pointless to get worked up over Hotslog's MMR because there's so many other variables to account for. What the fuck is so unreasonable about that?
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All I said was that it's pointless to get worked up over Hotslog's MMR because there's so many other variables to account for. What the fuck is so unreasonable about that?
What other variables? Like variance from bad teammates/afkers?
Would you disagree that Hotslogs - if all games were reported + sample size was high enough - would give a pretty good indication of the actual MMR?
From my perspective, there are no real other measureable goals than Hotslogs. So that is what I am looking at - whether the system is perfect or not. In the areas where it isn't perfect, it's obviously a bit annoying. The end of the world? Absolutely not. But I wouldn't call it ridiclous to be annoyed over people who abuse the system.
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On December 11 2014 07:30 Hider wrote:Show nested quote +All I said was that it's pointless to get worked up over Hotslog's MMR because there's so many other variables to account for. What the fuck is so unreasonable about that? What other variables? Like variance from bad teammates/afkers? Would you disagree that Hotslogs - if all games were reported + sample size was high enough - would give a pretty good indication of the actual MMR?
And where in my comments did I say that was not the case?
You said going from lvl 1 to lvl 3 (on heroes) is a sure sign of cheating, I (and a few others) corrected you and explained possible scenarios. You said the matchmaking will always pair you up with comparable players, and I countered saying there's occasions (when the queue time drags on too long) where it won't.
How was any of that grounds to go ad hominem on me?
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EPT
