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On March 24 2014 20:23 Anduin wrote:
Not unlikely but it shouldn't be much more than 50-60% or so? And it never fails. Someone might have to correct me on the actual percentage.
I've honestly been thinking the same in a different context: Priests consistently having Northshire Cleric in their starting hand should be much more unlikely and still happens 80%-ish at least in my games, and that's also true when I'm the Priest myself. I'm sure it's just a statistical anomaly (ie. randomness) and not a hidden algorithm or anything but it's still freaking weird sometimes.
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This game needs better emotes since they refuse to have an actual practical chat system. Things like "Play Faster" or "Lucky Draw" or "You're fucking awful." You know, something that lets me show disdain for your murlock deck and 5 minute poor decision making over whether you should go for my face or go for my face. Or even just a sarcasm font. That way my well playeds stop being misinterpreted.
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On March 24 2014 22:50 Russano wrote:
This game needs better emotes since they refuse to have an actual practical chat system. Things like "Lucky Draw" or "You're fucking awful." You know, something that lets me show disdain for your murlock deck and poor decision making. Or even just a sarcasm font. That way my well playeds stop being misinterpreted.
see whenever i missplay or topdeck and my opponent tells me "well played" i answer with "thanks" just to make him even more angry
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Playing druid in arena against a rouge. Totally dominating the game. I have an ironbark and 2 other minions on the board and like 3 cards in hand. He had no cards, nothing on board, and 2 charges on assassins blade. I'm at 11 hp and he's at about 12. I have easy lethal next turn, and there's almost no possible way for me to lose.
He top decks Deathwing.
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On March 24 2014 20:23 Anduin wrote:
Not unlikely but it shouldn't be much more than 50-60% or so? And it never fails. Someone might have to correct me on the actual percentage.
Assuming two in a deck you have a 2/30 chance of drawing a card from a full deck. So if you're looking for a particular card as follows.
Going first (i.e. 3 cards drawn) no mulligan:
First Card: 2/30 (6.7%)
Second Card: 28/30 * 2/29 (6.4%) (i.e. draw any other card, then draw what you want)
Third Card: 28/30 * 27/29 * 2/28 (6.2%)
Total: 19.3%
Mulligan whole hand:
28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 2/30 (5.4%)
28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 28/30 * 2/29 (5.2%)
28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 28/30 * 27/29 * 2/28 (5.0%)
Total: 15.6%
So that's a 34.9% chance of drawing a particular card in your opening hand if you REALLY want it. And assuming you're going first so less cards (obviously its a higher percentage if you go second because extra card).
Turn 1: 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 2/27 (4.8%)
Turn 2: 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 25/27 * 2/26 (4.6%)
Turn 3: 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 25/27 * 24/26 * 2/25 (4.5%)
Turn 4: 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 25/27 * 24/26 * 23/25 * 2/24 (4.3%)
Total of 53.1% chance after a full hand mulligan by turn 4 assuming no additional card draws I think. Every card draw gives you a chance to draw it AND makes it more likely that you WILL draw. But the chance is conditional on not drawing any up to that point (which becomes increasingly less likely).
If you add in...say...two card draws before turn 4 (from, for example, Life Tap) then you get an extra 4.1% and 3.9%. So your percentage goes to 61.1%.
This holds true for every card you run two of, of course. Not just Twilight Drakes.
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has the f reconnecting ever worked for anybody
it just pisses me off even more after i got disconnected
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On March 24 2014 05:36 Serejai wrote:
Had a similar game with a Druid earlier.
Turn 1 Claw to my face
Turn 2 Claw to my face
Turn 3 Coin + Bite to my face
At this point I had like four minions on the board and couldn't stop laughing over how easy this was going to be.
Turn 4 Innervate, Innervate, golden Ragnaros
Game went downhill from there as he proceeded to flaunt his pay to win deck full of golden legendaries (and even then he didn't know what he was doing. He ended up silencing his own Rag so he could attack my 8/1 and then proceeded to Swipe my 4/4 afterwards - which would have killed my 8/1 too...).
It's quite frustrating when the majority of your losses come down to either you not owning essential cards for your deck or your opponent spending hundreds of dollars on packs.
It's basically 10% skill, 90% RNG before you own a complete card collection and even after you have a complete collection it's 50/50 at best.
Reading posts like this hurts my soul....
Newsflash, its not the game.. its you... your terrible.
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On March 25 2014 02:15 Josh111 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 24 2014 05:36 Serejai wrote:
Had a similar game with a Druid earlier.
Turn 1 Claw to my face
Turn 2 Claw to my face
Turn 3 Coin + Bite to my face
At this point I had like four minions on the board and couldn't stop laughing over how easy this was going to be.
Turn 4 Innervate, Innervate, golden Ragnaros
Game went downhill from there as he proceeded to flaunt his pay to win deck full of golden legendaries (and even then he didn't know what he was doing. He ended up silencing his own Rag so he could attack my 8/1 and then proceeded to Swipe my 4/4 afterwards - which would have killed my 8/1 too...).
It's quite frustrating when the majority of your losses come down to either you not owning essential cards for your deck or your opponent spending hundreds of dollars on packs.
It's basically 10% skill, 90% RNG before you own a complete card collection and even after you have a complete collection it's 50/50 at best. Reading posts like this hurts my soul.... Newsflash, its not the game.. its you... your terrible.
Thanks. The words of a nameless troll mean a lot to me, especially when I have an 83% win rate against rank 5 and up players.
People like you who think this game has a high skill ceiling are amusing. Cards and RNG are always more prevalent as proven by all the budget rush decks that can get a brand new player to legend.
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My QQ is not really a QQ just a random comment. Why do people run Aggro lock decks in Casual?? Its not competitive at all lol. Thats what ranked is for. Even if you win 1000 games in casual it means very little. Casual is for funny gimmick decks and playing around. Not tryhard decks LOL
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So It is warlock against warlock, zoo vs murloc. (I'm playing murlocs mrglrlglrl)
Anyway it's looking dire for the other warlock, he is much lower on health (12 health lower) and is down on board control, I have a 3/1 a 3/2 and a 2/1. He life taps and gets Knife Juggler.
Lays down knife juggler then a voidwalker, it hits the 3/1. He lays down his own abusive sergeant and then gets my 2/1.
He proceeds to get a Doomguard the next turn and wins after some close top decking situations.
Was a good game but a lucky win for him 
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FREEAGLELAND26780 Posts
On March 25 2014 00:22 -Celestial- wrote:Show nested quote +On March 24 2014 20:23 Anduin wrote:
Not unlikely but it shouldn't be much more than 50-60% or so? And it never fails. Someone might have to correct me on the actual percentage. Assuming two in a deck you have a 2/30 chance of drawing a card from a full deck. So if you're looking for a particular card as follows. Going first (i.e. 3 cards drawn) no mulligan: First Card: 2/30 (6.7%) Second Card: 28/30 * 2/29 (6.4%) (i.e. draw any other card, then draw what you want) Third Card: 28/30 * 27/29 * 2/28 (6.2%) Total: 19.3% Mulligan whole hand: 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 2/30 (5.4%) 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 28/30 * 2/29 (5.2%) 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 28/30 * 27/29 * 2/28 (5.0%) Total: 15.6% So that's a 34.9% chance of drawing a particular card in your opening hand if you REALLY want it. And assuming you're going first so less cards (obviously its a higher percentage if you go second because extra card). Turn 1: 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 2/27 (4.8%) Turn 2: 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 25/27 * 2/26 (4.6%) Turn 3: 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 25/27 * 24/26 * 2/25 (4.5%) Turn 4: 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 25/27 * 24/26 * 23/25 * 2/24 (4.3%) Total of 53.1% chance after a full hand mulligan by turn 4 assuming no additional card draws I think. Every card draw gives you a chance to draw it AND makes it more likely that you WILL draw. But the chance is conditional on not drawing any up to that point (which becomes increasingly less likely). If you add in...say...two card draws before turn 4 (from, for example, Life Tap) then you get an extra 4.1% and 3.9%. So your percentage goes to 61.1%. This holds true for every card you run two of, of course. Not just Twilight Drakes.
A more elegant way of doing this is to use combinations. Your method doesn't consider cases where you draw both of your two Drakes by turn 4, either pre-mulligan or post-mulligan with draws.
Going first
Chance of having at least one Drake in pre-mulligan hand - (28c2 * 2c1 + 28c1 * 2c2) / 30c3 = (756+28)/4060 = 0.193
Chance of having at least one Drake in post-mulligan hand after pre-mulligan hand has no Drakes - 28c3 / 30c3 * (25c2 * 2c1 + 25c1 * 2c2) / 27c3 = 0.807 * (600+25)/2925 = 0.172
Chance of drawing at least one Drake by start of turn 4 (6 draws) after post-mulligan hand containing no Drakes - 28c3 / 30c3 * 25c3 / 27c3 * (25c5 * 2c1 + 25c4 * 2c2) / 27c6 = 0.807 * 0.786 * (106260+12650)/296010 = 0.807 * 0.786 * 0.402 = 0.255
Overall chance of having at least one Twilight Drake in hand by start of turn 4 when going first - 63%
Going second
Chance of having at least one Drake in pre-mulligan hand - (28c3 * 2c1 + 28c2 * 2c2) / 30c4 = (6552 + 378) / 27405 = 0.253
Chance of having at least one Drake in post-mulligan hand after pre-mulligan hand has no Drakes - 28c4 / 30c4 * (24c3 * 2c1 + 24c2 * 2c2) / 26c4 = 0.747 * (4048+276)/14950 = 0.747 * 0.289 = 0.216
Chance of drawing at least one Drake by start of turn 4 (6 draws) after post-mulligan hand containing no Drakes - 28c4 / 30c4 * 24c4 / 26c4 * (24c5 * 2c1 + 24c4 * 2c2) / 26c6 = 0.747 * 0.711 * (85008+10626)/230230 = 0.747 * 0.711 * 0.415 = 0.220
Overall chance of having at least one Twilight Drake in hand by start of turn 4 when going second - 68.9%
Remember though that Handlocks might want to keep Mountain Giants as well, which would decrease these percentages. Too lazy to calculate.
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Pick mage for a change in arena, cause you never play the other picks, get no spells, lose constantly to spells. Fucking 80% rng based shitgame.
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I don't get why people keep playing cards when they know they have exactly a 0% chance to win. hell not even win, just survive the next turn.
I just played this pally who had 2 health left, and i had way more, 18 or so. he had no minions on his side, i had 5 minions on my side of the field, 3 of which were taunts, 2 taunts were 4/5 and the other was a 9/7 ragnaros taunt. he has in his hand leeroy, abusive sergeant, and truesilver champion and proceeded to play them all, run the leeroy into the ragnaros before conceding. do people even fucking use their little brains when they just throw all these cards down?
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Who the fuck picks 5 Assassinates? 
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FREEAGLELAND26780 Posts
On March 25 2014 07:14 ballasdontcry wrote:
I don't get why people keep playing cards when they know they have exactly a 0% chance to win. hell not even win, just survive the next turn.
I just played this pally who had 2 health left, and i had way more, 18 or so. he had no minions on his side, i had 5 minions on my side of the field, 3 of which were taunts, 2 taunts were 4/5 and the other was a 9/7 ragnaros taunt. he has in his hand leeroy, abusive sergeant, and truesilver champion and proceeded to play them all, run the leeroy into the ragnaros before conceding. do people even fucking use their little brains when they just throw all these cards down?
Some people just like showing what they have before the game ends. Also maybe he just wanted to have chicken.
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On March 25 2014 07:44 flamewheel wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2014 07:14 ballasdontcry wrote:
I don't get why people keep playing cards when they know they have exactly a 0% chance to win. hell not even win, just survive the next turn.
I just played this pally who had 2 health left, and i had way more, 18 or so. he had no minions on his side, i had 5 minions on my side of the field, 3 of which were taunts, 2 taunts were 4/5 and the other was a 9/7 ragnaros taunt. he has in his hand leeroy, abusive sergeant, and truesilver champion and proceeded to play them all, run the leeroy into the ragnaros before conceding. do people even fucking use their little brains when they just throw all these cards down? Some people just like showing what they have before the game ends. Also maybe he just wanted to have chicken.
meh. annoying waste of time.
personally i play HS like poker when you muck with a hand that didn't go to showdown... why would I show people information that I don't have to?
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On March 25 2014 06:05 flamewheel wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2014 00:22 -Celestial- wrote:On March 24 2014 20:23 Anduin wrote:
Not unlikely but it shouldn't be much more than 50-60% or so? And it never fails. Someone might have to correct me on the actual percentage. Assuming two in a deck you have a 2/30 chance of drawing a card from a full deck. So if you're looking for a particular card as follows. Going first (i.e. 3 cards drawn) no mulligan: First Card: 2/30 (6.7%) Second Card: 28/30 * 2/29 (6.4%) (i.e. draw any other card, then draw what you want) Third Card: 28/30 * 27/29 * 2/28 (6.2%) Total: 19.3% Mulligan whole hand: 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 2/30 (5.4%) 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 28/30 * 2/29 (5.2%) 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 28/30 * 27/29 * 2/28 (5.0%) Total: 15.6% So that's a 34.9% chance of drawing a particular card in your opening hand if you REALLY want it. And assuming you're going first so less cards (obviously its a higher percentage if you go second because extra card). Turn 1: 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 2/27 (4.8%) Turn 2: 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 25/27 * 2/26 (4.6%) Turn 3: 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 25/27 * 24/26 * 2/25 (4.5%) Turn 4: 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 25/27 * 24/26 * 23/25 * 2/24 (4.3%) Total of 53.1% chance after a full hand mulligan by turn 4 assuming no additional card draws I think. Every card draw gives you a chance to draw it AND makes it more likely that you WILL draw. But the chance is conditional on not drawing any up to that point (which becomes increasingly less likely). If you add in...say...two card draws before turn 4 (from, for example, Life Tap) then you get an extra 4.1% and 3.9%. So your percentage goes to 61.1%. This holds true for every card you run two of, of course. Not just Twilight Drakes. A more elegant way of doing this is to use combinations. Your method doesn't consider cases where you draw both of your two Drakes by turn 4, either pre-mulligan or post-mulligan with draws. Going firstChance of having at least one Drake in pre-mulligan hand - (28c2 * 2c1 + 28c1 * 2c2) / 30c3 = (756+28)/4060 = 0.193 Chance of having at least one Drake in post-mulligan hand after pre-mulligan hand has no Drakes - 28c3 / 30c3 * (25c2 * 2c1 + 25c1 * 2c2) / 27c3 = 0.807 * (600+25)/2925 = 0.172 Chance of drawing at least one Drake by start of turn 4 (6 draws) after post-mulligan hand containing no Drakes - 28c3 / 30c3 * 25c3 / 27c3 * (25c5 * 2c1 + 25c4 * 2c2) / 27c6 = 0.807 * 0.786 * (106260+12650)/296010 = 0.807 * 0.786 * 0.402 = 0.255 Overall chance of having at least one Twilight Drake in hand by start of turn 4 when going first - 63%Going secondChance of having at least one Drake in pre-mulligan hand - (28c3 * 2c1 + 28c2 * 2c2) / 30c4 = (6552 + 378) / 27405 = 0.253 Chance of having at least one Drake in post-mulligan hand after pre-mulligan hand has no Drakes - 28c4 / 30c4 * (24c3 * 2c1 + 24c2 * 2c2) / 26c4 = 0.747 * (4048+276)/14950 = 0.747 * 0.289 = 0.216 Chance of drawing at least one Drake by start of turn 4 (6 draws) after post-mulligan hand containing no Drakes - 28c4 / 30c4 * 24c4 / 26c4 * (24c5 * 2c1 + 24c4 * 2c2) / 26c6 = 0.747 * 0.711 * (85008+10626)/230230 = 0.747 * 0.711 * 0.415 = 0.220 Overall chance of having at least one Twilight Drake in hand by start of turn 4 when going second - 68.9%Remember though that Handlocks might want to keep Mountain Giants as well, which would decrease these percentages. Too lazy to calculate.
True. To be honest I was just doing that as a side distraction whilst writing up my protein degradation radiation paperwork so I wasn't thinking particularly cleanly. X-D
That's a much smoother way to present it.
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EPT
