Hearthstone QQ Therapy - Page 142

On March 25 2014 03:01 Serejai wrote:

Had a similar game with a Druid earlier.

Turn 1 Claw to my face
Turn 2 Claw to my face
Turn 3 Coin + Bite to my face

At this point I had like four minions on the board and couldn't stop laughing over how easy this was going to be.

Turn 4 Innervate, Innervate, golden Ragnaros

Game went downhill from there as he proceeded to flaunt his pay to win deck full of golden legendaries (and even then he didn't know what he was doing. He ended up silencing his own Rag so he could attack my 8/1 and then proceeded to Swipe my 4/4 afterwards - which would have killed my 8/1 too...).

It's quite frustrating when the majority of your losses come down to either you not owning essential cards for your deck or your opponent spending hundreds of dollars on packs.

It's basically 10% skill, 90% RNG before you own a complete card collection and even after you have a complete collection it's 50/50 at best.

On March 25 2014 00:22 -Celestial- wrote:


Assuming two in a deck you have a 2/30 chance of drawing a card from a full deck. So if you're looking for a particular card as follows.

Going first (i.e. 3 cards drawn) no mulligan:
First Card: 2/30 (6.7%)
Second Card: 28/30 * 2/29 (6.4%) (i.e. draw any other card, then draw what you want)
Third Card: 28/30 * 27/29 * 2/28 (6.2%)

Total: 19.3%

Mulligan whole hand:
28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 2/30 (5.4%)
28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 28/30 * 2/29 (5.2%)
28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 28/30 * 27/29 * 2/28 (5.0%)

Total: 15.6%

So that's a 34.9% chance of drawing a particular card in your opening hand if you REALLY want it. And assuming you're going first so less cards (obviously its a higher percentage if you go second because extra card).

Turn 1: 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 2/27 (4.8%)
Turn 2: 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 25/27 * 2/26 (4.6%)
Turn 3: 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 25/27 * 24/26 * 2/25 (4.5%)
Turn 4: 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 28/30 * 27/29 * 26/28 * 25/27 * 24/26 * 23/25 * 2/24 (4.3%)

Total of 53.1% chance after a full hand mulligan by turn 4 assuming no additional card draws I think. Every card draw gives you a chance to draw it AND makes it more likely that you WILL draw. But the chance is conditional on not drawing any up to that point (which becomes increasingly less likely).

If you add in...say...two card draws before turn 4 (from, for example, Life Tap) then you get an extra 4.1% and 3.9%. So your percentage goes to 61.1%.


This holds true for every card you run two of, of course. Not just Twilight Drakes.

On March 25 2014 06:05 flamewheel wrote:


Going first
Chance of having at least one Drake in pre-mulligan hand - (28c2 * 2c1 + 28c1 * 2c2) / 30c3 = (756+28)/4060 = 0.193

Chance of having at least one Drake in post-mulligan hand after pre-mulligan hand has no Drakes - 28c3 / 30c3 * (25c2 * 2c1 + 25c1 * 2c2) / 27c3 = 0.807 * (600+25)/2925 = 0.172
.

On March 25 2014 07:14 ballasdontcry wrote:
I don't get why people keep playing cards when they know they have exactly a 0% chance to win. hell not even win, just survive the next turn.

I just played this pally who had 2 health left, and i had way more, 18 or so. he had no minions on his side, i had 5 minions on my side of the field, 3 of which were taunts, 2 taunts were 4/5 and the other was a 9/7 ragnaros taunt. he has in his hand leeroy, abusive sergeant, and truesilver champion and proceeded to play them all, run the leeroy into the ragnaros before conceding. do people even fucking use their little brains when they just throw all these cards down?