To be honest, I don't want to defend anything. It takes time to consult a lot of information. I don't have so much time to do it. A Chinese has done it once before。 I'm not good at nitpicking to find loopholes。 I just want to share the views of ordinary Chinese, if you are interested in this. To tell you the truth, most of the Chinese people's congresses don't care or pay attention to Xinjiang. After all, it's too far away from us. I only have a few friends living in Xinjiang. You want to know what ordinary people think of Xinjiang, that is, China has decades of preferential policies for Xinjiang and terrorist activities in Xinjiang. If you want to ask other questions, I'll answer them as much as I can.
On May 26 2022 10:27 [JXSA].Zergling wrote: To be honest, I don't want to defend anything. It takes time to consult a lot of information. I don't have so much time to do it. A Chinese has done it once before。 I'm not good at nitpicking to find loopholes。 I just want to share the views of ordinary Chinese, if you are interested in this. To tell you the truth, most of the Chinese people's congresses don't care or pay attention to Xinjiang. After all, it's too far away from us. I only have a few friends living in Xinjiang. You want to know what ordinary people think of Xinjiang, that is, China has decades of preferential policies for Xinjiang and terrorist activities in Xinjiang. If you want to ask other questions, I'll answer them as much as I can.
Fair enough. Is it fair to say that people you interact with just don’t really care about the situation there?
Xinjiang is 3000-4000 kilometers away from most parts of China. In addition to deliberately searching, ordinary Chinese people will not check the situation in Xinjiang. Xinjiang in the eyes of ordinary Chinese people has several characteristics： 1，Xinjiang people are the people with the highest status in China. They enjoy too many preferential policies in all aspects 2，Xinjiang is economically underdeveloped. It is a place with beautiful scenery and suitable for tourism 3，There are many delicious foods in Xinjiang, including mutton, roast fish, fruit and cotton. 4，There are separatist forces and terrorists in Xinjiang, but there have been no major terrorist incidents in recent years. 5，The issue of Xinjiang is constantly attacked by politicians from various countries, which is the reason why there are more Chinese News in Xinjiang, otherwise it is not reported by the news 6，People from other regions will be promoted after working in Xinjiang for a few years. This is the reason why many people are attracted to Xinjiang (not everyone can go and need to be selected). Two of my classmates have worked in Xinjiang for three years. We call it supporting Xinjiang.
Finally, once again, I have no intention to defend anything, but to objectively share the lives and views of ordinary Chinese people.
On May 26 2022 12:57 [JXSA].Zergling wrote: Xinjiang is 3000-4000 kilometers away from most parts of China. In addition to deliberately searching, ordinary Chinese people will not check the situation in Xinjiang. Xinjiang in the eyes of ordinary Chinese people has several characteristics： 1，Xinjiang people are the people with the highest status in China. They enjoy too many preferential policies in all aspects 2，Xinjiang is economically underdeveloped. It is a place with beautiful scenery and suitable for tourism 3，There are many delicious foods in Xinjiang, including mutton, roast fish, fruit and cotton. 4，There are separatist forces and terrorists in Xinjiang, but there have been no major terrorist incidents in recent years. 5，The issue of Xinjiang is constantly attacked by politicians from various countries, which is the reason why there are more Chinese News in Xinjiang, otherwise it is not reported by the news 6，People from other regions will be promoted after working in Xinjiang for a few years. This is the reason why many people are attracted to Xinjiang (not everyone can go and need to be selected). Two of my classmates have worked in Xinjiang for three years. We call it supporting Xinjiang.
Finally, once again, I have no intention to defend anything, but to objectively share the lives and views of ordinary Chinese people.
There are some reports coming in that China is preparing to move to war economy setting and is planning some big operation around the July-October period. Might be Taiwan, might be Russia...
There is no value in invading Taiwan. The government has said they will destroy the chip plants before surrendering and they have spent decades and billions of dollars preparing for the invasion. The us doesn't need to move into the range of any of China's ships when it can just rally their aircraft carrier battle groups at pearl harbor and the indian sea to end the Chinese states ability to obtain food and oil.
They wouldn't need to shift anything to invade Russia when their entire military is tied up in the west. Sure it would take them a while but they could match to the artic just in time to freeze to death in the winter.
India is across a massive mountain range with an equally large army. Vietnam has been tried a few times over the years for no gain. Thailand has maybe a few roads now through the golden triangle but that's equally thick jungle. Supplying an army over tibet would be... A choice but unless they want to invade the stans when Russia is distracted there isn't much in that direction.
So Taiwan Japan and South Korea? I mean if they want to server ties to their food supply their oil supply and their economy that's their decision to make.
China doesn't think short term of a war like that. They might be seeing some horrific numbers coming in for their economy but they wouldn't lash out when they have nothing to even think of gaining.
There is no value in invading Taiwan. when they have nothing to even think of gaining.
Thats the western way of thinking about war. We have to gain something economically by going to war. But countries go to war for other reasons as well,for example ideological reasons.
Seems unlikely to me that China would make a move on Taiwan. There is a window of opportunity but i do think they have other priorities for now and time is more or less on their side. They could do it though and there is nothing the US would do to stop them. If China would stop all exports to the US (which i would guess is likely in such a situation) then you could end up with tripple digit inflation in the US.
The world would get triple digit inflation when 70% of the world's chip supply suddenly drops off the market. Sure there are those stories about "secret chip machinery hidden in the swiss mountains in case of war" but even India on its own can plant a few ships in the indian ocean to "suggest" tankers to stop going east. We know Chinese ships don't have the range to even get that far into the Indian ocean and forget pearl harbor being the edge of the world for anyone the us deems it to be. China hasn't had enough food to feed itself for a long time and its hard to see how any sort of distribution happens without gas refined in the middle east.
But sure tell me the ideological reasons on how a hostile Taiwan with no chips to give is worth sacrificing 100's of millions of lives and the end of the Chinese economy. I would genuinely want to understand china more if that ideology exists.
That's why some people analyzing the situation assume China will move towards Russia. They've been conducting large scale military drills in the northeast since February. Vladivostok is a juicy target and with Russia being occupied in the west and having sent most of its military and equipment there I guess China wouldn't have much trouble securing large chunks of land, perhaps even getting as far as the Bearing Sea and Arctic Ocean, basically cutting out about a third of Russian territory with little resistance.
On June 04 2022 09:10 Manit0u wrote: There are some reports coming in that China is preparing to move to war economy setting and is planning some big operation around the July-October period. Might be Taiwan, might be Russia...
Did anyone else stumble upon those rumors?
Where do you see this? Also, how on earth could they do anything to Russia beyond soft power and economic bullying?
On June 06 2022 05:46 JimmiC wrote: The Russia one I'm not so sure on. But that would totally turn the world upside down because they pretty much vote lock step as it tends to go democracies voting one way and dictatorships the other. Not to mention that Russia still has nukes and would likely use them over losing that much territory.
If I had to bet, they would, but only to a point that wouldn't hurt the western countries that much. I do not think they would be to the level of Russian ones. It would also probably cause the fall of Putin. I wonder if China would then become the third country to try to occupy Afghanistan.
In the end I think the Chinese leadership is too shrewd and will just get themselves way ahead by getting dirt cheap enery from Russia and likely some other deals with them to increase their power and profile.
I agree with your points about Russia, it's both China's ally as well as dangerous if attacked.
I could see them attacking a fairly weak neutral neighbor like Afghanistan, but supposedly the Chinese gov has very good relationships with the Taliban, so I don't really think that that's as interesting for them.
I still think the most likely case is Taiwan. The sanctions against China will never reach the same severity as the ones against Russia because the western economy is heavily dependent on Chinese products, a large scale trade war would ruin our economies almost as much as the Chinese. Considering that inflation in many western countries is already high due to the war in Ukraine I just don't see it happening. Secondly I strongly doubt that the USA will go into a direct military confrontation with China if they can avoid it and I don't think Taiwan is worth risking a nuclear war for (Japan or SK might). Third the CCP has strong ideological reasons to attack Taiwan, China is extremely nationalist and has expressed that they will stop at nothing to achieve the "unification" of China. Conquering Taiwan is not just a question of geopolitical usage but also prestige for the Chinese government, especially because Taiwan presents an alternative to their totalitarian regime.
On June 06 2022 12:40 Archeon wrote: Conquering Taiwan is not just a question of geopolitical usage but also prestige for the Chinese government, especially because Taiwan presents an alternative to their totalitarian regime.
Well, Taiwan is their OG government, isn't it? It's where they fled during the communist revolution, taking as many cultural heritage with them as they could since CCP wanted to destroy a lot of their original culture. It's not just a matter of unification, for them it's a matter of giving actual legitimacy to their current government.
On June 04 2022 09:10 Manit0u wrote: There are some reports coming in that China is preparing to move to war economy setting and is planning some big operation around the July-October period. Might be Taiwan, might be Russia...
Did anyone else stumble upon those rumors?
Where do you see this? Also, how on earth could they do anything to Russia beyond soft power and economic bullying?
One US military youtuber said that "Soviets always treated NATO military exercises as some show of force or political statement, while we used them to actually train". It could probably be the case here as well. Russian dependance on China is growing anyway due to cutting ties with the West. Any resource development in Russia is costly due to logistic issues (them resources being located in very remote places in taiga and tundra). China can't populate most of it's own territory anyway. Most of the natural resources worth grabbing in Russia are far away from Chinese border (oil, gas, diamonds - all this stuff is mostly close to the Polar Circle). Russian and Chinese strategic airforce conducted a joint military exercises over Sea of Japan and East China Sea just couple of weeks ago. China has been shifting focus from land forces to air and naval for over a decade already. And Russia still has nukes.
In light of all this I doubt we'll see any action on Russia-China border in a foreseeable future.
On June 06 2022 05:46 JimmiC wrote: The Russia one I'm not so sure on. But that would totally turn the world upside down because they pretty much vote lock step as it tends to go democracies voting one way and dictatorships the other. Not to mention that Russia still has nukes and would likely use them over losing that much territory.
If I had to bet, they would, but only to a point that wouldn't hurt the western countries that much. I do not think they would be to the level of Russian ones. It would also probably cause the fall of Putin. I wonder if China would then become the third country to try to occupy Afghanistan.
In the end I think the Chinese leadership is too shrewd and will just get themselves way ahead by getting dirt cheap enery from Russia and likely some other deals with them to increase their power and profile.
I agree with your points about Russia, it's both China's ally as well as dangerous if attacked.
I could see them attacking a fairly weak neutral neighbor like Afghanistan, but supposedly the Chinese gov has very good relationships with the Taliban, so I don't really think that that's as interesting for them.
I still think the most likely case is Taiwan. The sanctions against China will never reach the same severity as the ones against Russia because the western economy is heavily dependent on Chinese products, a large scale trade war would ruin our economies almost as much as the Chinese. Considering that inflation in many western countries is already high due to the war in Ukraine I just don't see it happening. Secondly I strongly doubt that the USA will go into a direct military confrontation with China if they can avoid it and I don't think Taiwan is worth risking a nuclear war for (Japan or SK might). Third the CCP has strong ideological reasons to attack Taiwan, China is extremely nationalist and has expressed that they will stop at nothing to achieve the "unification" of China. Conquering Taiwan is not just a question of geopolitical usage but also prestige for the Chinese government, especially because Taiwan presents an alternative to their totalitarian regime.
Why do you think that the US will go against their word and abandon taiwan despite constantly saying they will defend them? And why do you think that the west won't be united when a majority of the chip production globally comes offline due to the invasion? A real trade war with China would hurt China a lot more. The US can buy its products from another market rather easily while China would have to find a new USA sized market to sell its products to, which doesn't exist.
And again can someone explain to me what part of Chinese Ideology would explain risking the starvation of hundreds of millions and the end of their ability to obtain oil? Ignoreing completely the difficulty in actually invading Taiwan I just don't understand how a reckless and insane invasion of taiwan reconciles with the "long game pragmatism" we've seen from them for the longest time.
On June 06 2022 05:46 JimmiC wrote: The Russia one I'm not so sure on. But that would totally turn the world upside down because they pretty much vote lock step as it tends to go democracies voting one way and dictatorships the other. Not to mention that Russia still has nukes and would likely use them over losing that much territory.
If I had to bet, they would, but only to a point that wouldn't hurt the western countries that much. I do not think they would be to the level of Russian ones. It would also probably cause the fall of Putin. I wonder if China would then become the third country to try to occupy Afghanistan.
In the end I think the Chinese leadership is too shrewd and will just get themselves way ahead by getting dirt cheap enery from Russia and likely some other deals with them to increase their power and profile.
I agree with your points about Russia, it's both China's ally as well as dangerous if attacked.
I could see them attacking a fairly weak neutral neighbor like Afghanistan, but supposedly the Chinese gov has very good relationships with the Taliban, so I don't really think that that's as interesting for them.
I still think the most likely case is Taiwan. The sanctions against China will never reach the same severity as the ones against Russia because the western economy is heavily dependent on Chinese products, a large scale trade war would ruin our economies almost as much as the Chinese. Considering that inflation in many western countries is already high due to the war in Ukraine I just don't see it happening. Secondly I strongly doubt that the USA will go into a direct military confrontation with China if they can avoid it and I don't think Taiwan is worth risking a nuclear war for (Japan or SK might). Third the CCP has strong ideological reasons to attack Taiwan, China is extremely nationalist and has expressed that they will stop at nothing to achieve the "unification" of China. Conquering Taiwan is not just a question of geopolitical usage but also prestige for the Chinese government, especially because Taiwan presents an alternative to their totalitarian regime.
Why do you think that the US will go against their word and abandon taiwan despite constantly saying they will defend them? And why do you think that the west won't be united when a majority of the chip production globally comes offline due to the invasion? A real trade war with China would hurt China a lot more. The US can buy its products from another market rather easily while China would have to find a new USA sized market to sell its products to, which doesn't exist.
And again can someone explain to me what part of Chinese Ideology would explain risking the starvation of hundreds of millions and the end of their ability to obtain oil? Ignoreing completely the difficulty in actually invading Taiwan I just don't understand how a reckless and insane invasion of taiwan reconciles with the "long game pragmatism" we've seen from them for the longest time.
Are you telling me that entirely locking down huge cities, including closing the biggest port in the world can be considered "long game pragmatism"? If anything in recent years China has done anything but thinking long term, most of their moves were centered around strengthening the CCP short-term and unnecessary flexing that actually hurt them.
EPT
