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On May 23 2026 08:51 ETisME wrote:Show nested quote +On May 23 2026 05:16 Yurie wrote:On May 22 2026 16:03 ETisME wrote:
Ukraine has found themselves a new gold mine with their drone tech.
But a lot would depend on how much Russia wants to open up to China's support, and how much more China wants to help.
The US visit didn't yield much, and the timing with Putin coming right after is very ambiguous.
Nor there were many big trade deals happened.
China is currently doing the usual "neutral" stance, but it's definitely being tempted to lean in one way over the other right now.
The few big roadblocks would be just how strong US sanctions could become. You forget to put agency into the European nations there. If China takes a strong pro Russian stance and the US ignores it, well the EU won't. So even if Trump doesn't care it would be costly for China. European nations can't do too much I am afraid. They haven't decouple with China like the US has been, trade deficit is at 350billion euro. The US took 8 years to reduce the deficit by 45%, and china isn't even on top 2 trade partners anymore. Wasn't a great idea to move manufacturing to a country with opposing ideology and especially one that blocks western firms entry without some special arrangement. Literally funding the enemy while celebrating US tech firms lawsuits wins.
China is a more rational actor than Trump US. It is a preferable partner at this time. It doesn't mean we aren't looking for options, closing ties with South America, India etc etc to try to break both dependencies. I don't like either country but at least you know what you get with China.
US would need 2+ solid presidential periods to lose pariah status. Or China would need to hit even lower points than now (invade Taiwan as an example). The current constant expansion of soft, economical and territorial power isn't enough when China is on the other side of the continent. Israel is a very similar nation in how it acts, except for being much less powerful.
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Hey hey slow down. An irrational democracy with strong checks and balances is a way more preferable partner than a one-party dictatorship with a long history of IP theft, espionage, and other breaches of trust. Europe still has far more common interests with a Trumpist US than with China. America destroyed most of the trust it could count on before Trump but it's still way safer to rely on American companies in areas where Europe lacks viable local alternatives.
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On May 23 2026 23:26 Sent. wrote:
Hey hey slow down. An irrational democracy with strong checks and balances is a way more preferable partner than a one-party dictatorship with a long history of IP theft, espionage, and other breaches of trust. Europe still has far more common interests with a Trumpist US than with China. America destroyed most of the trust it could count on before Trump but it's still way safer to rely on American companies in areas where Europe lacks viable local alternatives.
My man. If Trump has proven anything over the last 2 years, it's that the checks and balances in the US have completely broken down. Right now, US is a country invading other countries on a whim, threatening their own allies, and creating economic instability in the world. They have a felon and a pedo at the helm, and absolutely no one is stopping him. China is doing none of that. That's not to say China is a good country, but right now, at this very moment, I would rate them more trustworthy than the US.
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Xi is a dictator by any measure, but he hasn't ripped up a trade deal just so he could make a billion dollars from inside trading during the negotiation of the new deal.
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On May 23 2026 23:26 Sent. wrote:
Hey hey slow down. An irrational democracy with strong checks and balances is a way more preferable partner than a one-party dictatorship with a long history of IP theft, espionage, and other breaches of trust. Europe still has far more common interests with a Trumpist US than with China. America destroyed most of the trust it could count on before Trump but it's still way safer to rely on American companies in areas where Europe lacks viable local alternatives.
The same Trumpist US whose national strategy is the destruction of the EU and putting fascists in power in Europe?
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This isn't going to be a decision that we make anyway, if we transition to be closer to China it'll be because circumstances force it. We're not going to, like, elect a pro-China candidate or something
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Doesn't take long to prove my point.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-21/eu-to-seek-carve-out-for-banned-china-chips-to-shield-auto-firms
Pivot to china is not because of trump, it's decades long policy to both green washing and ignorance of what it is funneling money to.
Chinese news prrtty much been calling Europe insignificant and literally have no respect for Europe. They do have more respect to the US not because of their strength but work culture.
If you were exposed to Chinese netizens and news, you'd be hating on them too, but you don't. And that's how we ended up with europe today.
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On May 24 2026 05:40 Excludos wrote:Show nested quote +On May 23 2026 23:26 Sent. wrote:
Hey hey slow down. An irrational democracy with strong checks and balances is a way more preferable partner than a one-party dictatorship with a long history of IP theft, espionage, and other breaches of trust. Europe still has far more common interests with a Trumpist US than with China. America destroyed most of the trust it could count on before Trump but it's still way safer to rely on American companies in areas where Europe lacks viable local alternatives. My man. If Trump has proven anything over the last 2 years, it's that the checks and balances in the US have completely broken down. Right now, US is a country invading other countries on a whim, threatening their own allies, and creating economic instability in the world. They have a felon and a pedo at the helm, and absolutely no one is stopping him. China is doing none of that. That's not to say China is a good country, but right now, at this very moment, I would rate them more trustworthy than the US.
Instead China arms Iran and Russia, is slowly attempting to annex the south China sea, is rapidly rearming to prepare for an invasion of Taiwan, creates police stations in our countries to keep tabs on Chinese abroad, subsidises their industries to such an extent that it floods the rest of the world with their exports, restricts exports of critical minerals to the EU when we were not even part of the trade war, and I'm sure there's other things I've missed. I share your criticism of the Trump administration but China is not more trustworthy.
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On May 24 2026 17:46 RvB wrote:Show nested quote +On May 24 2026 05:40 Excludos wrote:On May 23 2026 23:26 Sent. wrote:
Hey hey slow down. An irrational democracy with strong checks and balances is a way more preferable partner than a one-party dictatorship with a long history of IP theft, espionage, and other breaches of trust. Europe still has far more common interests with a Trumpist US than with China. America destroyed most of the trust it could count on before Trump but it's still way safer to rely on American companies in areas where Europe lacks viable local alternatives. My man. If Trump has proven anything over the last 2 years, it's that the checks and balances in the US have completely broken down. Right now, US is a country invading other countries on a whim, threatening their own allies, and creating economic instability in the world. They have a felon and a pedo at the helm, and absolutely no one is stopping him. China is doing none of that. That's not to say China is a good country, but right now, at this very moment, I would rate them more trustworthy than the US. Instead China arms Iran and Russia, is slowly attempting to annex the south China sea, is rapidly rearming to prepare for an invasion of Taiwan, creates police stations in our countries to keep tabs on Chinese abroad, subsidises their industries to such an extent that it floods the rest of the world with their exports, restricts exports of critical minerals to the EU when we were not even part of the trade war, and I'm sure there's other things I've missed. I share your criticism of the Trump administration but China is not more trustworthy.
*Shrug*, we can easily accept all of that, as demonstrated by what we're currently accepting.
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On May 24 2026 17:46 RvB wrote:Show nested quote +On May 24 2026 05:40 Excludos wrote:On May 23 2026 23:26 Sent. wrote:
Hey hey slow down. An irrational democracy with strong checks and balances is a way more preferable partner than a one-party dictatorship with a long history of IP theft, espionage, and other breaches of trust. Europe still has far more common interests with a Trumpist US than with China. America destroyed most of the trust it could count on before Trump but it's still way safer to rely on American companies in areas where Europe lacks viable local alternatives. My man. If Trump has proven anything over the last 2 years, it's that the checks and balances in the US have completely broken down. Right now, US is a country invading other countries on a whim, threatening their own allies, and creating economic instability in the world. They have a felon and a pedo at the helm, and absolutely no one is stopping him. China is doing none of that. That's not to say China is a good country, but right now, at this very moment, I would rate them more trustworthy than the US. Instead China arms Iran and Russia, is slowly attempting to annex the south China sea, is rapidly rearming to prepare for an invasion of Taiwan, creates police stations in our countries to keep tabs on Chinese abroad, subsidises their industries to such an extent that it floods the rest of the world with their exports, restricts exports of critical minerals to the EU when we were not even part of the trade war, and I'm sure there's other things I've missed. I share your criticism of the Trump administration but China is not more trustworthy.
This is all true. To reiterate, China is not the good guys in any measure. But they also haven't invaded 2 countries in the last 6 months and purposefully created economic instability in the world.
Also, maybe I'm naive, but I see nothing changing in terms of Taiwan any time soon. China's best bet to invade was right after Russia invaded Ukraine, and they've held back. They know that they're currently undergoing an economic boom, with China settling themselves at the very top of the world economy. Invading Taiwan would be a massive mistake in terms of their own growth, and other than a bit of land that is the island itself, they stand to gain nothing.
They've been posturing for decades, and they're going to continue to posture. But the window for invasion has passed.
edit: And if they do invade, it'll be because the Trump gives them the go-ahead. Which is an equal detraction from the US as China. So the US would still be seen as less trustworthy. But we are scraping the bottom of the barrel here
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On May 24 2026 23:08 Excludos wrote:Show nested quote +On May 24 2026 17:46 RvB wrote:On May 24 2026 05:40 Excludos wrote:On May 23 2026 23:26 Sent. wrote:
Hey hey slow down. An irrational democracy with strong checks and balances is a way more preferable partner than a one-party dictatorship with a long history of IP theft, espionage, and other breaches of trust. Europe still has far more common interests with a Trumpist US than with China. America destroyed most of the trust it could count on before Trump but it's still way safer to rely on American companies in areas where Europe lacks viable local alternatives. My man. If Trump has proven anything over the last 2 years, it's that the checks and balances in the US have completely broken down. Right now, US is a country invading other countries on a whim, threatening their own allies, and creating economic instability in the world. They have a felon and a pedo at the helm, and absolutely no one is stopping him. China is doing none of that. That's not to say China is a good country, but right now, at this very moment, I would rate them more trustworthy than the US. Instead China arms Iran and Russia, is slowly attempting to annex the south China sea, is rapidly rearming to prepare for an invasion of Taiwan, creates police stations in our countries to keep tabs on Chinese abroad, subsidises their industries to such an extent that it floods the rest of the world with their exports, restricts exports of critical minerals to the EU when we were not even part of the trade war, and I'm sure there's other things I've missed. I share your criticism of the Trump administration but China is not more trustworthy. This is all true. To reiterate, China is not the good guys in any measure. But they also haven't invaded 2 countries in the last 6 months and purposefully created economic instability in the world. Also, maybe I'm naive, but I see nothing changing in terms of Taiwan any time soon. China's best bet to invade was right after Russia invaded Ukraine, and they've held back. They know that they're currently undergoing an economic boom, with China settling themselves at the very top of the world economy. Invading Taiwan would be a massive mistake in terms of their own growth, and other than a bit of land that is the island itself, they stand to gain nothing. They've been posturing for decades, and they're going to continue to posture. But the window for invasion has passed. edit: And if they do invade, it'll be because the Trump gives them the go-ahead. Which is an equal detraction from the US as China. So the US would still be seen as less trustworthy. But we are scraping the bottom of the barrel here
Their economic policy is much more destabilizing than the Iran invasion. It's just structural instead of a shock. Their support for Russia is a also large factor helping Russia to extend the war.
I think your views on Taiwan are very naive. Economics does not always drive decision making as the Russia - Ukraine war makes clear. The CCP considers Taiwan a core part of China. Reunification is a core objective for the CCP and has been for decades. Xi has given the directive for the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan in 2027. Their posturing, as you call, it has become much more aggressive than it used to be. The window for invasion has almost certainly not passed as the PLA is rapidly modernizing and gaining capabilities. That's ultimately what decides the window for invasion that China has.
And if they do invade, it'll be because the Trump gives them the go-ahead. Which is an equal detraction from the US as China. So the US would still be seen as less trustworthy. But we are scraping the bottom of the barrel here
China is not going to ask the go ahead from Trump (or any other US president) for an invasion. Even if it happened it would not detract equally from the US and China. China would be the one making the decision to invade and start a war. That's primarily their responsibility regardless of what any other country does.
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On May 25 2026 17:57 RvB wrote:Show nested quote +On May 24 2026 23:08 Excludos wrote:On May 24 2026 17:46 RvB wrote:On May 24 2026 05:40 Excludos wrote:On May 23 2026 23:26 Sent. wrote:
Hey hey slow down. An irrational democracy with strong checks and balances is a way more preferable partner than a one-party dictatorship with a long history of IP theft, espionage, and other breaches of trust. Europe still has far more common interests with a Trumpist US than with China. America destroyed most of the trust it could count on before Trump but it's still way safer to rely on American companies in areas where Europe lacks viable local alternatives. My man. If Trump has proven anything over the last 2 years, it's that the checks and balances in the US have completely broken down. Right now, US is a country invading other countries on a whim, threatening their own allies, and creating economic instability in the world. They have a felon and a pedo at the helm, and absolutely no one is stopping him. China is doing none of that. That's not to say China is a good country, but right now, at this very moment, I would rate them more trustworthy than the US. Instead China arms Iran and Russia, is slowly attempting to annex the south China sea, is rapidly rearming to prepare for an invasion of Taiwan, creates police stations in our countries to keep tabs on Chinese abroad, subsidises their industries to such an extent that it floods the rest of the world with their exports, restricts exports of critical minerals to the EU when we were not even part of the trade war, and I'm sure there's other things I've missed. I share your criticism of the Trump administration but China is not more trustworthy. This is all true. To reiterate, China is not the good guys in any measure. But they also haven't invaded 2 countries in the last 6 months and purposefully created economic instability in the world. Also, maybe I'm naive, but I see nothing changing in terms of Taiwan any time soon. China's best bet to invade was right after Russia invaded Ukraine, and they've held back. They know that they're currently undergoing an economic boom, with China settling themselves at the very top of the world economy. Invading Taiwan would be a massive mistake in terms of their own growth, and other than a bit of land that is the island itself, they stand to gain nothing. They've been posturing for decades, and they're going to continue to posture. But the window for invasion has passed. edit: And if they do invade, it'll be because the Trump gives them the go-ahead. Which is an equal detraction from the US as China. So the US would still be seen as less trustworthy. But we are scraping the bottom of the barrel here Their economic policy is much more destabilizing than the Iran invasion. It's just structural instead of a shock. Their support for Russia is a also large factor helping Russia to extend the war. I think your views on Taiwan are very naive. Economics does not always drive decision making as the Russia - Ukraine war makes clear. The CCP considers Taiwan a core part of China. Reunification is a core objective for the CCP and has been for decades. Xi has given the directive for the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan in 2027. Their posturing, as you call, it has become much more aggressive than it used to be. The window for invasion has almost certainly not passed as the PLA is rapidly modernizing and gaining capabilities. That's ultimately what decides the window for invasion that China has. Show nested quote +And if they do invade, it'll be because the Trump gives them the go-ahead. Which is an equal detraction from the US as China. So the US would still be seen as less trustworthy. But we are scraping the bottom of the barrel here China is not going to ask the go ahead from Trump (or any other US president) for an invasion. Even if it happened it would not detract equally from the US and China. China would be the one making the decision to invade and start a war. That's primarily their responsibility regardless of what any other country does.
What I mean by the last part is that the US has sworn to defend Taiwan. China isn't going to invade it if they think they're actually going to end up in a war with the US. Of course they're not going to go "Hi Trump, can we invade Taiwan now? Thanks!" It'll be ensuring Trump isn't going to be honouring their deal
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On May 25 2026 20:53 Excludos wrote:Show nested quote +On May 25 2026 17:57 RvB wrote:On May 24 2026 23:08 Excludos wrote:On May 24 2026 17:46 RvB wrote:On May 24 2026 05:40 Excludos wrote:On May 23 2026 23:26 Sent. wrote:
Hey hey slow down. An irrational democracy with strong checks and balances is a way more preferable partner than a one-party dictatorship with a long history of IP theft, espionage, and other breaches of trust. Europe still has far more common interests with a Trumpist US than with China. America destroyed most of the trust it could count on before Trump but it's still way safer to rely on American companies in areas where Europe lacks viable local alternatives. My man. If Trump has proven anything over the last 2 years, it's that the checks and balances in the US have completely broken down. Right now, US is a country invading other countries on a whim, threatening their own allies, and creating economic instability in the world. They have a felon and a pedo at the helm, and absolutely no one is stopping him. China is doing none of that. That's not to say China is a good country, but right now, at this very moment, I would rate them more trustworthy than the US. Instead China arms Iran and Russia, is slowly attempting to annex the south China sea, is rapidly rearming to prepare for an invasion of Taiwan, creates police stations in our countries to keep tabs on Chinese abroad, subsidises their industries to such an extent that it floods the rest of the world with their exports, restricts exports of critical minerals to the EU when we were not even part of the trade war, and I'm sure there's other things I've missed. I share your criticism of the Trump administration but China is not more trustworthy. This is all true. To reiterate, China is not the good guys in any measure. But they also haven't invaded 2 countries in the last 6 months and purposefully created economic instability in the world. Also, maybe I'm naive, but I see nothing changing in terms of Taiwan any time soon. China's best bet to invade was right after Russia invaded Ukraine, and they've held back. They know that they're currently undergoing an economic boom, with China settling themselves at the very top of the world economy. Invading Taiwan would be a massive mistake in terms of their own growth, and other than a bit of land that is the island itself, they stand to gain nothing. They've been posturing for decades, and they're going to continue to posture. But the window for invasion has passed. edit: And if they do invade, it'll be because the Trump gives them the go-ahead. Which is an equal detraction from the US as China. So the US would still be seen as less trustworthy. But we are scraping the bottom of the barrel here Their economic policy is much more destabilizing than the Iran invasion. It's just structural instead of a shock. Their support for Russia is a also large factor helping Russia to extend the war. I think your views on Taiwan are very naive. Economics does not always drive decision making as the Russia - Ukraine war makes clear. The CCP considers Taiwan a core part of China. Reunification is a core objective for the CCP and has been for decades. Xi has given the directive for the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan in 2027. Their posturing, as you call, it has become much more aggressive than it used to be. The window for invasion has almost certainly not passed as the PLA is rapidly modernizing and gaining capabilities. That's ultimately what decides the window for invasion that China has. And if they do invade, it'll be because the Trump gives them the go-ahead. Which is an equal detraction from the US as China. So the US would still be seen as less trustworthy. But we are scraping the bottom of the barrel here China is not going to ask the go ahead from Trump (or any other US president) for an invasion. Even if it happened it would not detract equally from the US and China. China would be the one making the decision to invade and start a war. That's primarily their responsibility regardless of what any other country does. What I mean by the last part is that the US has sworn to defend Taiwan. China isn't going to invade it if they think they're actually going to end up in a war with the US. Of course they're not going to go "Hi Trump, can we invade Taiwan now? Thanks!" It'll be ensuring Trump isn't going to be honouring their deal
If you want to subjugate Taiwan successfully you need a lot of ingredients.
First you need to be able to credibly take the island from the Taiwanese army. Xi wants that done from 2027.
Then you need the US to be weak so a military confrontation looks unappetizing to them. The US is doing that themselves with their debt.
Third you want to world to be divided about the issue. In the past the US could credibly use diplomacy and sanctions along with enforcement with their own navy and their allies to completely cripple China without even being nearby.
If the US called Europe would be with them and certainly Japan and Australia from self preservation and that would bring in India (also from self interest and because they can't handle secondary sanctions either) and then the middle east. And then the rest of all the minor powers.
Trump is fixing this nicely. Europe will not be keen to ruin their economy over something half the world away when the US fucked off from their problem and certainly not when the rest of Asia didn't even give a shit in the first place.
Africa and the ME will absolutely trade with China if enough other countries can't force them not to.
Going at it alone and forcing compliance can work but it would get very costly for the US and much less effective.
China is also going heavy on self reliance trying to make themselves more into more of a fortress economy. Right now they want peace and quiet to handle their own economic problems.
Once all the pieces is in play you don't straight up invade. You kick the violations on water and air into overdrive. Since there is casus belli for it being Chinese waters you can escalate even up to the point where you either force incoming vessels to register with Chinese authorities. If not you board them and make them sign the documents. Maybe not American or European vessels.
Either Taiwan loses control of their airspace and territorial waters. Or they shoot down a Chinese jet or blow up one of their ships.
I think this is what Trump was alluding to. He likely asked Xi if they were going to invade Taiwan. And Xi truthfully said, no, but we will respond to "aggression".
This is kind of like asking the US what to do. The choice has to be made either when Taiwan shoots at Chinese forces or ideally beforehand.
And it's going to be a really difficult choice because with US debt at that point a hot conflict with China would be very uncomfortable for the US and likely economic/diplomatic options would be limited at that point.
China will likely push it. It's not an existential crisis for the US so nukes are unlikely. They don't have that much to lose from sparring in the south china sea and they can always step back at any point.
Subjugation of Taiwan would be a statement that the US has abandoned Asia and cement Chinese hegemony.
And quite frankly if the US doesn't decide to step in Taiwan will probably bend the knee without any invasion.
Only thing I can see that stops this is either a full reversal of US foreign policy or if the US leverages a fully functional and reusable starship to build a massive satellite constellation with "heavy" high altitude satellites. At that point the calculation of nuclear war changes for China.
However I would not be surprised if China decides to just Kessler space if they feel they are losing such a race to bad.
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On May 26 2026 05:20 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:Show nested quote +On May 25 2026 20:53 Excludos wrote:On May 25 2026 17:57 RvB wrote:On May 24 2026 23:08 Excludos wrote:On May 24 2026 17:46 RvB wrote:On May 24 2026 05:40 Excludos wrote:On May 23 2026 23:26 Sent. wrote:
Hey hey slow down. An irrational democracy with strong checks and balances is a way more preferable partner than a one-party dictatorship with a long history of IP theft, espionage, and other breaches of trust. Europe still has far more common interests with a Trumpist US than with China. America destroyed most of the trust it could count on before Trump but it's still way safer to rely on American companies in areas where Europe lacks viable local alternatives. My man. If Trump has proven anything over the last 2 years, it's that the checks and balances in the US have completely broken down. Right now, US is a country invading other countries on a whim, threatening their own allies, and creating economic instability in the world. They have a felon and a pedo at the helm, and absolutely no one is stopping him. China is doing none of that. That's not to say China is a good country, but right now, at this very moment, I would rate them more trustworthy than the US. Instead China arms Iran and Russia, is slowly attempting to annex the south China sea, is rapidly rearming to prepare for an invasion of Taiwan, creates police stations in our countries to keep tabs on Chinese abroad, subsidises their industries to such an extent that it floods the rest of the world with their exports, restricts exports of critical minerals to the EU when we were not even part of the trade war, and I'm sure there's other things I've missed. I share your criticism of the Trump administration but China is not more trustworthy. This is all true. To reiterate, China is not the good guys in any measure. But they also haven't invaded 2 countries in the last 6 months and purposefully created economic instability in the world. Also, maybe I'm naive, but I see nothing changing in terms of Taiwan any time soon. China's best bet to invade was right after Russia invaded Ukraine, and they've held back. They know that they're currently undergoing an economic boom, with China settling themselves at the very top of the world economy. Invading Taiwan would be a massive mistake in terms of their own growth, and other than a bit of land that is the island itself, they stand to gain nothing. They've been posturing for decades, and they're going to continue to posture. But the window for invasion has passed. edit: And if they do invade, it'll be because the Trump gives them the go-ahead. Which is an equal detraction from the US as China. So the US would still be seen as less trustworthy. But we are scraping the bottom of the barrel here Their economic policy is much more destabilizing than the Iran invasion. It's just structural instead of a shock. Their support for Russia is a also large factor helping Russia to extend the war. I think your views on Taiwan are very naive. Economics does not always drive decision making as the Russia - Ukraine war makes clear. The CCP considers Taiwan a core part of China. Reunification is a core objective for the CCP and has been for decades. Xi has given the directive for the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan in 2027. Their posturing, as you call, it has become much more aggressive than it used to be. The window for invasion has almost certainly not passed as the PLA is rapidly modernizing and gaining capabilities. That's ultimately what decides the window for invasion that China has. And if they do invade, it'll be because the Trump gives them the go-ahead. Which is an equal detraction from the US as China. So the US would still be seen as less trustworthy. But we are scraping the bottom of the barrel here China is not going to ask the go ahead from Trump (or any other US president) for an invasion. Even if it happened it would not detract equally from the US and China. China would be the one making the decision to invade and start a war. That's primarily their responsibility regardless of what any other country does. What I mean by the last part is that the US has sworn to defend Taiwan. China isn't going to invade it if they think they're actually going to end up in a war with the US. Of course they're not going to go "Hi Trump, can we invade Taiwan now? Thanks!" It'll be ensuring Trump isn't going to be honouring their deal If you want to subjugate Taiwan successfully you need a lot of ingredients. First you need to be able to credibly take the island from the Taiwanese army. Xi wants that done from 2027. Then you need the US to be weak so a military confrontation looks unappetizing to them. The US is doing that themselves with their debt. Third you want to world to be divided about the issue. In the past the US could credibly use diplomacy and sanctions along with enforcement with their own navy and their allies to completely cripple China without even being nearby. If the US called Europe would be with them and certainly Japan and Australia from self preservation and that would bring in India (also from self interest and because they can't handle secondary sanctions either) and then the middle east. And then the rest of all the minor powers. Trump is fixing this nicely. Europe will not be keen to ruin their economy over something half the world away when the US fucked off from their problem and certainly not when the rest of Asia didn't even give a shit in the first place. Africa and the ME will absolutely trade with China if enough other countries can't force them not to. Going at it alone and forcing compliance can work but it would get very costly for the US and much less effective. China is also going heavy on self reliance trying to make themselves more into more of a fortress economy. Right now they want peace and quiet to handle their own economic problems. Once all the pieces is in play you don't straight up invade. You kick the violations on water and air into overdrive. Since there is casus belli for it being Chinese waters you can escalate even up to the point where you either force incoming vessels to register with Chinese authorities. If not you board them and make them sign the documents. Maybe not American or European vessels. Either Taiwan loses control of their airspace and territorial waters. Or they shoot down a Chinese jet or blow up one of their ships. I think this is what Trump was alluding to. He likely asked Xi if they were going to invade Taiwan. And Xi truthfully said, no, but we will respond to "aggression". This is kind of like asking the US what to do. The choice has to be made either when Taiwan shoots at Chinese forces or ideally beforehand. And it's going to be a really difficult choice because with US debt at that point a hot conflict with China would be very uncomfortable for the US and likely economic/diplomatic options would be limited at that point. China will likely push it. It's not an existential crisis for the US so nukes are unlikely. They don't have that much to lose from sparring in the south china sea and they can always step back at any point. Subjugation of Taiwan would be a statement that the US has abandoned Asia and cement Chinese hegemony. And quite frankly if the US doesn't decide to step in Taiwan will probably bend the knee without any invasion. Only thing I can see that stops this is either a full reversal of US foreign policy or if the US leverages a fully functional and reusable starship to build a massive satellite constellation with "heavy" high altitude satellites. At that point the calculation of nuclear war changes for China. However I would not be surprised if China decides to just Kessler space if they feel they are losing such a race to bad.
I think that China is rather unlikely to invade Taiwan. They see what happened to Russia and they're much more reliant on foreign markets and trade even for their most basic energy and food needs so sanctions would kill them. Also, there's the question of the quality of their military, which remains mostly untested as it's built primarily for posturing (and reports about Chinese military actions during some peacekeeping missions in Africa for example don't paint a good picture for them).
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On May 27 2026 07:11 Manit0u wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2026 05:20 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On May 25 2026 20:53 Excludos wrote:On May 25 2026 17:57 RvB wrote:On May 24 2026 23:08 Excludos wrote:On May 24 2026 17:46 RvB wrote:On May 24 2026 05:40 Excludos wrote:On May 23 2026 23:26 Sent. wrote:
Hey hey slow down. An irrational democracy with strong checks and balances is a way more preferable partner than a one-party dictatorship with a long history of IP theft, espionage, and other breaches of trust. Europe still has far more common interests with a Trumpist US than with China. America destroyed most of the trust it could count on before Trump but it's still way safer to rely on American companies in areas where Europe lacks viable local alternatives. My man. If Trump has proven anything over the last 2 years, it's that the checks and balances in the US have completely broken down. Right now, US is a country invading other countries on a whim, threatening their own allies, and creating economic instability in the world. They have a felon and a pedo at the helm, and absolutely no one is stopping him. China is doing none of that. That's not to say China is a good country, but right now, at this very moment, I would rate them more trustworthy than the US. Instead China arms Iran and Russia, is slowly attempting to annex the south China sea, is rapidly rearming to prepare for an invasion of Taiwan, creates police stations in our countries to keep tabs on Chinese abroad, subsidises their industries to such an extent that it floods the rest of the world with their exports, restricts exports of critical minerals to the EU when we were not even part of the trade war, and I'm sure there's other things I've missed. I share your criticism of the Trump administration but China is not more trustworthy. This is all true. To reiterate, China is not the good guys in any measure. But they also haven't invaded 2 countries in the last 6 months and purposefully created economic instability in the world. Also, maybe I'm naive, but I see nothing changing in terms of Taiwan any time soon. China's best bet to invade was right after Russia invaded Ukraine, and they've held back. They know that they're currently undergoing an economic boom, with China settling themselves at the very top of the world economy. Invading Taiwan would be a massive mistake in terms of their own growth, and other than a bit of land that is the island itself, they stand to gain nothing. They've been posturing for decades, and they're going to continue to posture. But the window for invasion has passed. edit: And if they do invade, it'll be because the Trump gives them the go-ahead. Which is an equal detraction from the US as China. So the US would still be seen as less trustworthy. But we are scraping the bottom of the barrel here Their economic policy is much more destabilizing than the Iran invasion. It's just structural instead of a shock. Their support for Russia is a also large factor helping Russia to extend the war. I think your views on Taiwan are very naive. Economics does not always drive decision making as the Russia - Ukraine war makes clear. The CCP considers Taiwan a core part of China. Reunification is a core objective for the CCP and has been for decades. Xi has given the directive for the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan in 2027. Their posturing, as you call, it has become much more aggressive than it used to be. The window for invasion has almost certainly not passed as the PLA is rapidly modernizing and gaining capabilities. That's ultimately what decides the window for invasion that China has. And if they do invade, it'll be because the Trump gives them the go-ahead. Which is an equal detraction from the US as China. So the US would still be seen as less trustworthy. But we are scraping the bottom of the barrel here China is not going to ask the go ahead from Trump (or any other US president) for an invasion. Even if it happened it would not detract equally from the US and China. China would be the one making the decision to invade and start a war. That's primarily their responsibility regardless of what any other country does. What I mean by the last part is that the US has sworn to defend Taiwan. China isn't going to invade it if they think they're actually going to end up in a war with the US. Of course they're not going to go "Hi Trump, can we invade Taiwan now? Thanks!" It'll be ensuring Trump isn't going to be honouring their deal If you want to subjugate Taiwan successfully you need a lot of ingredients. First you need to be able to credibly take the island from the Taiwanese army. Xi wants that done from 2027. Then you need the US to be weak so a military confrontation looks unappetizing to them. The US is doing that themselves with their debt. Third you want to world to be divided about the issue. In the past the US could credibly use diplomacy and sanctions along with enforcement with their own navy and their allies to completely cripple China without even being nearby. If the US called Europe would be with them and certainly Japan and Australia from self preservation and that would bring in India (also from self interest and because they can't handle secondary sanctions either) and then the middle east. And then the rest of all the minor powers. Trump is fixing this nicely. Europe will not be keen to ruin their economy over something half the world away when the US fucked off from their problem and certainly not when the rest of Asia didn't even give a shit in the first place. Africa and the ME will absolutely trade with China if enough other countries can't force them not to. Going at it alone and forcing compliance can work but it would get very costly for the US and much less effective. China is also going heavy on self reliance trying to make themselves more into more of a fortress economy. Right now they want peace and quiet to handle their own economic problems. Once all the pieces is in play you don't straight up invade. You kick the violations on water and air into overdrive. Since there is casus belli for it being Chinese waters you can escalate even up to the point where you either force incoming vessels to register with Chinese authorities. If not you board them and make them sign the documents. Maybe not American or European vessels. Either Taiwan loses control of their airspace and territorial waters. Or they shoot down a Chinese jet or blow up one of their ships. I think this is what Trump was alluding to. He likely asked Xi if they were going to invade Taiwan. And Xi truthfully said, no, but we will respond to "aggression". This is kind of like asking the US what to do. The choice has to be made either when Taiwan shoots at Chinese forces or ideally beforehand. And it's going to be a really difficult choice because with US debt at that point a hot conflict with China would be very uncomfortable for the US and likely economic/diplomatic options would be limited at that point. China will likely push it. It's not an existential crisis for the US so nukes are unlikely. They don't have that much to lose from sparring in the south china sea and they can always step back at any point. Subjugation of Taiwan would be a statement that the US has abandoned Asia and cement Chinese hegemony. And quite frankly if the US doesn't decide to step in Taiwan will probably bend the knee without any invasion. Only thing I can see that stops this is either a full reversal of US foreign policy or if the US leverages a fully functional and reusable starship to build a massive satellite constellation with "heavy" high altitude satellites. At that point the calculation of nuclear war changes for China. However I would not be surprised if China decides to just Kessler space if they feel they are losing such a race to bad. I think that China is rather unlikely to invade Taiwan. They see what happened to Russia and they're much more reliant on foreign markets and trade even for their most basic energy and food needs so sanctions would kill them. Also, there's the question of the quality of their military, which remains mostly untested as it's built primarily for posturing (and reports about Chinese military actions during some peacekeeping missions in Africa for example don't paint a good picture for them).
Which is why they will wait for an opportunity when the risk for sanctions are low and then dip their toe in. If they can't achieve air superiority and naval dominance an invasion is doomed. If they can the threat of invasion is enough.
I think they will force Taiwan to fire first and then escalate that into a tit-for-tat. If the US actually does something they can back down. If Taiwan holds their own they can back down. If neither happens they can achieve air superiority and enough naval dominance to blockade the island. At that point Taiwan probably surrenders control over its airspace and territorial waters to China. Once it's gone that far future integration is almost unavoidable.
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Canada11586 Posts
Not really necessary to invoke Article 5 if they don't want to (and won't). However, between this and what happened in Poland is more than enough justification for all NATO countries surrounding Ukraine to invoke a Russian drone no-fly zone so many kilometers into Ukraine (in coordination with Ukraine) to protect their own citizens from these strays. Create a buffer zone.
And then in coordination with Ukraine, slowly expand the Russian no-fly zones deeper into Ukraine.
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United States44199 Posts
Even if Article 5 was invoked the collective action would be much as you describe. There's an awful lot of flexibility in responding.
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At the same time it feels like bait to get NATO to involve themselves into the war, to justify mobilization and changing the status quo. I've been seeing a lot more optimism about the war recently and Ukraine getting consistent drone coverage on the land route to crimera.
We're back in the zone where if the kerch bridge fails the entire southern flank falls with it. That kind of reversal combined with it being the 4th year of war and Ukraines increaseing ability to strike deeply into Russia could be huge.
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On May 30 2026 14:55 Sermokala wrote:
At the same time it feels like bait to get NATO to involve themselves into the war, to justify mobilization and changing the status quo. I've been seeing a lot more optimism about the war recently and Ukraine getting consistent drone coverage on the land route to crimera.
We're back in the zone where if the kerch bridge fails the entire southern flank falls with it. That kind of reversal combined with it being the 4th year of war and Ukraines increaseing ability to strike deeply into Russia could be huge.
I think it might be more of a long game plan to retake Crimea. Russia's navy in the Black Sea is stuck at distant ports. Kerch bridge is being periodically destroyed, now northern route is under drone surveillence. This means Crimea is pretty much isolated and it would be impossible to send reinforcements and supplies there. If Ukraine invaded it and took it back even for a moment it would be an insane blow to Putin's regime and no way for them to sell this war as a victory.
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EPT
