EPTWell it certainly isn't going to be "coming to an end" from Ukraine capitulating, so I'm not sure how Putin thinks this is going to unfold in any other way than pulling out of Ukraine completely.
Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 928
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Excludos
Norway8270 Posts
Well it certainly isn't going to be "coming to an end" from Ukraine capitulating, so I'm not sure how Putin thinks this is going to unfold in any other way than pulling out of Ukraine completely. | ||
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Sermokala
United States14160 Posts
On May 10 2026 20:32 Excludos wrote: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/10/vladimir-putin-suggests-ukraine-war-is-coming-to-an-end Well it certainly isn't going to be "coming to an end" from Ukraine capitulating, so I'm not sure how Putin thinks this is going to unfold in any other way than pulling out of Ukraine completely. Ushakov told Russian media on Thursday that Moscow saw no basis for a new round of trilateral talks with Ukraine and the US until Ukrainian forces withdrew from the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine – a condition Kyiv has rejected. Yeah its not happening anytime soon. Just looks lazy to get anything done while people die. | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5843 Posts
I think the target audience for this were the erstwhile cheerleaders of the war who have become increasingly fatalistic over the last few weeks, and people who may be susceptible to their "defeatist" narrative. Basically "don't listen to the naysayers, we will win". | ||
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KobraKay
Portugal4367 Posts
On May 10 2026 20:32 Excludos wrote: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/10/vladimir-putin-suggests-ukraine-war-is-coming-to-an-end Well it certainly isn't going to be "coming to an end" from Ukraine capitulating, so I'm not sure how Putin thinks this is going to unfold in any other way than pulling out of Ukraine completely. Just think about Trump's comments on Iran.... They have the same strategist and speech writters it seems. | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5843 Posts
Delusional Russian warbloggers are suggesting that Russia attack European military industry to force Europe to abandon Ukraine. They are too stupid to understand this would backfire spectacularly. | ||
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Billyboy
2032 Posts
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Simberto
Germany11928 Posts
On May 11 2026 04:08 Billyboy wrote: It’s hard to say if they don’t know or if it is just to keep up the myth that they are fighting all of Europe. Clearly if Europe got involved and it was all conventional it would go extremely bad for Russia right away. It is somewhat funny and sad. Russia cannot even defeat Ukraine, surely they can defeat Ukraine + Europe! Basically the only way i can see that going well for Russia is if the USA would join on Putins side. But i doubt that even Trump can convince the US to do that. | ||
KwarK
United States44199 Posts
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Simberto
Germany11928 Posts
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GreenHorizons
United States24143 Posts
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Billyboy
2032 Posts
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Simberto
Germany11928 Posts
On May 11 2026 04:45 GreenHorizons wrote: Early on the popular idea was that Russia posed an existential threat to Europe if Putin wasn't stopped in Ukraine. Is that still a popular perception despite the frequent beclowning of the Russian military's effectiveness and assurances Europe would dominate such a conflict? Firstly, i don't think it is "beclowning" the Russian military. It is just the recognition that they don't live up to the hype of the cold war soviet union. If things had gone as Putin originally planned, and Russia had rolled Ukraine in 3 days, then things would look very differently today. In that scenario, and expansionist Putin setting his eyes on Poland, Finnland or the Baltics does not sound absurd. And that is the view of the Russian military people had before this conflict. But even a second-rate military can still be dangerous and kill a lot of people. And Europe is often very bad at getting its shit together in time. But even if Europe were to somewhat easily win a war with Russia, that still involves a lot of Europeans dying, and the constant threat of nuclear escalation. As long as Russia is busy in Ukraine, or if it is defeated there, Putin won't even consider a war with Europe. If Russia wins in Ukraine and is then given time to prepare, it might once again think that invading a neighbour is a good idea. | ||
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CuddlyCuteKitten
Sweden2843 Posts
On May 11 2026 04:45 GreenHorizons wrote: Early on the popular idea was that Russia posed an existential threat to Europe if Putin wasn't stopped in Ukraine. Is that still a popular perception despite the frequent beclowning of the Russian military's effectiveness and assurances Europe would dominate such a conflict? A conventional conflict could easily escalate to a nuclear one, especially if Russia believes France and the UK have politicians favourable to them that would make them stay out of such a conflict. Not impossible in future elections. Russia has been pushing their expansive in the same manner for a long time. Take a bit (Georgia, Donbass, Crimea etc), no one will stop us. Take another bite. Let them get away with Ukraine and the next target could be one of the baltic states for example. Their ground army is not that inefficient, it's not impossible they could take the country. Maybe improbable with the improved defences and the polish army is no joke and it's close. But it's not impossible they would calculate they have time to achieve their objectives. Their AA on the other hand is weak, probably just slightly stronger than Irans. European victory in a conventional war would come from bombing the fuck out of them. At the point where it's possible to bomb their logistical points beyond the border (that means their cities) it's not unlikely they would threaten and maybe even use nukes to make that impossible. At that point anything could happen. No one in Europe wants that scenario and Ukraine is in a prime position to save us from it. | ||
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Sent.
Poland9321 Posts
On May 11 2026 04:45 GreenHorizons wrote: Early on the popular idea was that Russia posed an existential threat to Europe if Putin wasn't stopped in Ukraine. Is that still a popular perception despite the frequent beclowning of the Russian military's effectiveness and assurances Europe would dominate such a conflict? Russia poses an existential threat to Europe as in the idea of THE EUROPE, the peak of European civilization and its values, etc. The last time Russia was a direct threat to Western Europe was in like the 50s and it stopped being an immediate danger to bigger Eastern countries like Poland, Hungary or Romania around 2004. Nobody is seriously afraid of Russia in those countries today. This doesn't make statements like "Russia poses an existential threat to Europe" wrong in proper contexts. Russia is still an existential threat in the way that it's a serious direct threat to smaller and most eastern countries like Estonia or Moldova and it's also a constant source of poison that has a small but not insignificant chance to turn voters in bigger states like Hungary (did happen) or Germany (did not happen yet) against European values. Pro-Russian governents in a single, non minor-country remain a big threat because the EU still has plenty of areas where unanimity is needed to pass laws. Imagine if California or Illinois could veto federal legislation in the US whenever Russian or some other foregin entity offered them slightly cheaper oil prices. Estonia is part of the EU. If we let Russia bully it, it's like letting Russia bully France. It's like letting China bully Hawaii or Alaska. The Europe as we know is not supposed to be something that can be threatened. | ||
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Artesimo
Germany599 Posts
On May 11 2026 05:15 Simberto wrote: Firstly, i don't think it is "beclowning" the Russian military. It is just the recognition that they don't live up to the hype of the cold war soviet union. If things had gone as Putin originally planned, and Russia had rolled Ukraine in 3 days, then things would look very differently today. In that scenario, and expansionist Putin setting his eyes on Poland, Finnland or the Baltics does not sound absurd. And that is the view of the Russian military people had before this conflict. But even a second-rate military can still be dangerous and kill a lot of people. And Europe is often very bad at getting its shit together in time. But even if Europe were to somewhat easily win a war with Russia, that still involves a lot of Europeans dying, and the constant threat of nuclear escalation. As long as Russia is busy in Ukraine, or if it is defeated there, Putin won't even consider a war with Europe. If Russia wins in Ukraine and is then given time to prepare, it might once again think that invading a neighbour is a good idea. I would add as a caveat that the war in ukraine is also not entirely indicative for the strength of the russian military, for the same reason that I would not take the blunders in the current iran war in full as criticism for US capabilities. Both wars suffer from a lack of political support. What do I mean by that? In the case of the russian military, the war was never planned as anything other than a short and swift operation. The picture we got from the intel leaks was that this "special military operation" was planned by a very small circle, without the support or consideration of their finance and economic people. There was also no contingency plan for when the totally not a war doesn't end quickly, and when it became apparent that it wouldn't, measures that would have been needed to get the russian military fully onto war footing were not taken, like mobilisation. Then the countless stories of even the units themselves not always being fully aware of their mission, either thinking they were about to return from their routine exercise, or having no combat briefing at all and being told they would just roll in and be welcomed as liberators. Many of the greatest circus acts from russia during this war have been a result of those things, like needing a mercenary group for manpower. And even with all that, their rush on kiev was a pretty close call. the reason why I am a lot less worried about russian capabilities is not because I think they are a 2nd rate army, or that they are incompetent, but simply because they are heavily worn down by now. I was not really afraid of their military before either, since I never believed they would be a threat for the whole of nato, or that they are even looking for a military conflict with nato. To me the russian threat was always and still is in their propaganda and subversion of our society and political systems. A military is important to keep the russia from every thinking about military conflict with EU / nato members though. There is the saying that the only thing worse than winning a defensive war is losing one, so it is not enough to feel confident that we would totally win that war. Russia needs to believe that we would totally win it so that they don't ever try. For all the russian shortcomings above, you can find similar examples for the iran war and how it is handled, but like I said, I would only hold some exceptions against the us military, and not see it overall as a fair general measure for their competence. In the end both wars are simply what happens when a bunch of clowns at the top get to make the calls and nobody is there who can rein in the circus or refuse them. Obviously the whole narrative of is russia isn't stopped in ukraine it will spell doom for the rest of europe was fearmongering to get the average idiot to understand that "but muh taxes" maybe should go to a cause worth fighting for for once. Same with the overall beclowning, its just boosting morale as well as people being emotionally invested in it, so they gotta dunk on the baddies. It is annoying, but its a necessary evil, some means to rally the people behind the greater goal. Russia is just as much an existential threat to us as before politically/societal, their military power might have been taken down a bit, but trump has also sown some reasonable doubt in nato, so naturally the rest of nato has to bolster up their might to make sure it still holds the same deterrence, even if US politics decides to shit the bed again. Since they've done that twice now I really would not have much trust into them for a while. | ||
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KwarK
United States44199 Posts
It assumes that nations only engage in wars that an objective assessment would predict that they could win. There’s absolutely no historical basis for that assumption, history is mostly counter examples. Russia is also the second best in the world at drone warfare, drone integration into infantry and artillery units, drone integration into long range kill chains, and counter drone warfare. And the distance between them and whoever is third isn’t small. Units like Rubicon would shit all over the US marines. They use a lot of disposable trash but that doesn’t mean that they don’t have specialists. | ||
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ETisME
12784 Posts
No doubt Russia can do a lot of damage. Europe has missed out a lot of actual on the field combat experience, Ukraine has complained several times about the ineffective, ancient NATO training is. On a grand scale battle though, Russia would have a hard time taking all NATO down, the US intel alone would change the playing field. Let's not forget the potential of Russia invasion was spotted and warned months before it actually happened. Both Iran and Venezuela use heavy Chinese military tech and there's an obvious generational gap. But at the same time Iran has managed to shock the world with their missile capabilities (hitting 4k KM range). All of these are important combat on the field capabilities. The bigger problem however is the will to war, there's a general lack of it, other than Russia and China that have high nationalism and control over agenda. Unlike the US/Europe/Japan and Taiwan, because the public are now exposed to way more information, fake or not. The lack of will to send troops supporting Ukraine defense is a big warning sign, the US isn't all that better | ||
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Silvanel
Poland4768 Posts
On May 11 2026 05:41 Sent. wrote: Russia poses an existential threat to Europe as in the idea of THE EUROPE, the peak of European civilization and its values, etc. The last time Russia was a direct threat to Western Europe was in like the 50s and it stopped being an immediate danger to bigger Eastern countries like Poland, Hungary or Romania around 2004. Nobody is seriously afraid of Russia in those countries today. This doesn't make statements like "Russia poses an existential threat to Europe" wrong in proper contexts. Russia is still an existential threat in the way that it's a serious direct threat to smaller and most eastern countries like Estonia or Moldova and it's also a constant source of poison that has a small but not insignificant chance to turn voters in bigger states like Hungary (did happen) or Germany (did not happen yet) against European values. Pro-Russian governents in a single, non minor-country remain a big threat because the EU still has plenty of areas where unanimity is needed to pass laws. Imagine if California or Illinois could veto federal legislation in the US whenever Russian or some other foregin entity offered them slightly cheaper oil prices. Estonia is part of the EU. If we let Russia bully it, it's like letting Russia bully France. It's like letting China bully Hawaii or Alaska. The Europe as we know is not supposed to be something that can be threatened. I disagree. First a lot of people in Poland do fear Russia, secondly Russia is an existential threat to Poland. -There is no month that ABW/SKW/police doesn't announce that they arrested someone who planned, attempted, or perpetrated acts of sabotage -They are founding right wing nutjobs and parties in order to get us away from EU -They are funding anti government nutjobs to sow discontent -They are funding left wing nutjobs to polarize society. -They do so in other countries to put strain on foreign relations. -They do help organized crime... An existential threat doesn't mean they will take Warsaw next month. It means that their end goal is our subjugation, and they do work towards it. | ||
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Excludos
Norway8270 Posts
On May 11 2026 16:29 Silvanel wrote: I disagree. First a lot of people in Poland do fear Russia, secondly Russia is an existential threat to Poland. -There is no month that ABW/SKW/police doesn't announce that they arrested someone who planned, attempted, or perpetrated acts of sabotage -They are founding right wing nutjobs and parties in order to get us away from EU -They are funding anti government nutjobs to sow discontent -They are funding left wing nutjobs to polarize society. -They do so in other countries to put strain on foreign relations. -They do help organized crime... An existential threat doesn't mean they will take Warsaw next month. It means that their end goal is our subjugation, and they do work towards it. This is exactly it. No one in EU or NATO is truly worried about a direct invasion from Russia, but the world, not just Poland, has been at war with Russia's hybrid warfare for decades already. We're worried they are going to sow dissidence and part of the population suddenly "decides that they're now Russian", backed by the sudden appearance of little green men. We're worried our politics shifting hard right, backed by Russia funding and influenced by a huge social media network. Or that organized crime undervalues our nation's security to the point where we're no longer able to respond effectively to threats. These are very real threats, and the effect of which we've seen all too well so many times already. | ||
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Jankisa
Croatia1487 Posts
The larger issues facing Europe include activities of the European Union and other transnational bodies that undermine political liberty and sovereignty, migration policies that are transforming the continent and creating strife, censorship of free speech and suppression of political opposition, cratering birthrates, and loss of national identities and self-confidence. And then, as the broad goals it lists: • Reestablishing conditions of stability within Europe and strategic stability with Russia; • Enabling Europe to stand on its own feet and operate as a group of aligned sovereign nations, including by taking primary responsibility for its own defense, without being dominated by any adversarial power; • Cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations; • Opening European markets to U.S. goods and services and ensuring fair treatment of U.S. workers and businesses; • Building up the healthy nations of Central, Eastern, and Southern Europe through commercial ties, weapons sales, political collaboration, and cultural and educational exchanges; • Ending the perception, and preventing the reality, of NATO as a perpetually expanding alliance; So, it seems like US, under Trump is almost perfectly aligned with Russian goals for Europe, they hate the EU and they will employ a strategy of boosting nationalistic and anti-EU parties within it's member states. So, to me, as a fan and beneficiary of EU, with all the rights and freedoms that we enjoy from it, Russia and USA are, under its current leadership existential threats. | ||
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