NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
On May 30 2026 14:55 Sermokala wrote: At the same time it feels like bait to get NATO to involve themselves into the war, to justify mobilization and changing the status quo. I've been seeing a lot more optimism about the war recently and Ukraine getting consistent drone coverage on the land route to crimera.
We're back in the zone where if the kerch bridge fails the entire southern flank falls with it. That kind of reversal combined with it being the 4th year of war and Ukraines increaseing ability to strike deeply into Russia could be huge.
I think it might be more of a long game plan to retake Crimea. Russia's navy in the Black Sea is stuck at distant ports. Kerch bridge is being periodically destroyed, now northern route is under drone surveillence. This means Crimea is pretty much isolated and it would be impossible to send reinforcements and supplies there. If Ukraine invaded it and took it back even for a moment it would be an insane blow to Putin's regime and no way for them to sell this war as a victory.
OK, that's enough hopium for today. Let's look at this realistically. Ukraine currently enjoys the advantage of having starlink and new intermediate range drones that can hit the supply routes to the south in the land corridor. As well as Russia losing their access to starlink which enabled their forward C&C and medium range supply interdiction. This has allowed Ukraine to do some *minor* gains in the south.
First, as we all know, this war shifts constantly. It's entirely possible a technological counter will be developed. Russia is trying to launch their own starlink equivalent and already have some satellites in orbit. They are supposed to get a rudimentary network going in months. This may be copium, or it may be real. They only need a band covering Ukraine with enough bandwidth for military use, and they can launch satellites. They could also start mass producing cheap AI powered intercept drones to protect their convoys.
But if they don't, and Ukraine manages to blow up the Kerch bridge. Supply is still not strangled 100%. It's unlikely that Ukraine will completely cripple logistics along the land corridor. Drone teams and hidden artillery with drone spotters are the modern equivalent of a WW1 machine gun nest. It's very hard to do a mass assault against it and it's not realistic that Ukraine will cripple this ability 100%. Massive scale maneuver warfare will be almost impossible even with logistic interdiction. And they also have to breach the already prepared defensive line with minefields and fortifications. And they need the troops to do it, which they probably do not have.
I think a best case scenario is more like this:
Ukraine manages to severely impact logistics to the south. Russia is unable to counter with new technology. Ukraine manages to secure a limited air superiority from poor logistics and hunting AA. This creates extremely adverse battlefield conditions for Russia who would rather not fight in the south. Ukraine uses elite brigades to take tactical victories in order for force resources into the south to alleviate pressure from other fronts.
I hope I'm wrong but I don't see some kind of souther miracle in the near future. But Ukraine doesn't really need to aim for it either. They need conditions where there is a low volume of strikes on their logistics and negligible attacks on the frontline so they can preserve troops. And then they need to wait. Latest article I read had Russia on 40% of their budget on the war, already blowing their planned deficit for this year and recommending non defence spending to cut 10% across the board. If this continues and the war stalls out completely with even a minor victory by taking Donetsk out of reach it's just a matter of time.
Russia has a lot of Men and material that needs to be logistically supported, drones may be cheap but they require a lot to get all the way to the Kherson riverline. Artillery shells are notoriously nightmares to transport.
Not to mention the mountains of food and water and fuel that needs to go through a partially interdicted gap. If the kerch bridge goes down everything gets hard, if the land route becomes the all hands drone front of the war things will get extremly hard.
On May 31 2026 09:14 Sermokala wrote: Russia has a lot of Men and material that needs to be logistically supported, drones may be cheap but they require a lot to get all the way to the Kherson riverline. Artillery shells are notoriously nightmares to transport.
Not to mention the mountains of food and water and fuel that needs to go through a partially interdicted gap. If the kerch bridge goes down everything gets hard, if the land route becomes the all hands drone front of the war things will get extremly hard.
I think the more likely outcome if the interdiction gains strength is that people start dying in Crimea. Russia won't call a formal evacuation to lower the water and food requirements but civilians will be forced to leave the island.
Combined with that you get worse supplied troops in the south. But I honestly think it has been proven that with current tech offensives are stupid so Ukraine can't do much with it. Perhaps be happy that Russia stops hunting civilians with drones since they become too valuable on that front.
I have seen numbers and estimates on the cost to rebuild Ukraine. Is there any numbers on the cost and timelines for rebuilding Russia proper? There is almost daily massive infrastructure hits and the cost must be ramping up massively.
Edit: There were only 7 days of refineries not being hit this month and 2 of those were the "ceasefire" and there was also a day with 2 hit and last night 3 were.
On June 01 2026 00:17 Billyboy wrote: I have seen numbers and estimates on the cost to rebuild Ukraine. Is there any numbers on the cost and timelines for rebuilding Russia proper? There is almost daily massive infrastructure hits and the cost must be ramping up massively.
Edit: There were only 7 days of refineries not being hit this month and 2 of those were the "ceasefire" and there was also a day with 2 hit and last night 3 were.
One can guess, but it'll be just that. Putin made sharing their economic numbers (something the Russian Central Bank would otherwise do twice a year) illegal a couple of years ago, after one particularly bad report, in an attempt to keep their ruble from spiraling. So we have no way of knowing just how bad the damages are atm
On June 01 2026 00:17 Billyboy wrote: I have seen numbers and estimates on the cost to rebuild Ukraine. Is there any numbers on the cost and timelines for rebuilding Russia proper? There is almost daily massive infrastructure hits and the cost must be ramping up massively.
Edit: There were only 7 days of refineries not being hit this month and 2 of those were the "ceasefire" and there was also a day with 2 hit and last night 3 were.
The thing is that Russia makes massive profits on current oil sales. They are a petrostate and as long as people buy from them they can rebuild.
Think of this war as them putting their sovereign wealth fund on fire and then borrowing on estimated profits for the next few years. Without that income source they would collapse at the end of the war. Even with it they lost insane amounts of people and income.
Ukraine is far from wrecking that right now. Would probably need another capacity step on top of what they have or that the war goes another 2 years.
On June 01 2026 00:17 Billyboy wrote: I have seen numbers and estimates on the cost to rebuild Ukraine. Is there any numbers on the cost and timelines for rebuilding Russia proper? There is almost daily massive infrastructure hits and the cost must be ramping up massively.
Edit: There were only 7 days of refineries not being hit this month and 2 of those were the "ceasefire" and there was also a day with 2 hit and last night 3 were.
One can guess, but it'll be just that. Putin made sharing their economic numbers (something the Russian Central Bank would otherwise do twice a year) illegal a couple of years ago, after one particularly bad report, in an attempt to keep their ruble from spiraling. So we have no way of knowing just how bad the damages are atm
Gotcha, I was wondering if there was some sort of site or twitter feed tallying up all the repair costs from the major infrastructure hits. But I guess it would still not be that accurate.
On June 01 2026 00:17 Billyboy wrote: I have seen numbers and estimates on the cost to rebuild Ukraine. Is there any numbers on the cost and timelines for rebuilding Russia proper? There is almost daily massive infrastructure hits and the cost must be ramping up massively.
Edit: There were only 7 days of refineries not being hit this month and 2 of those were the "ceasefire" and there was also a day with 2 hit and last night 3 were.
The thing is that Russia makes massive profits on current oil sales. They are a petrostate and as long as people buy from them they can rebuild.
Think of this war as them putting their sovereign wealth fund on fire and then borrowing on estimated profits for the next few years. Without that income source they would collapse at the end of the war. Even with it they lost insane amounts of people and income.
Ukraine is far from wrecking that right now. Would probably need another capacity step on top of what they have or that the war goes another 2 years.
How much are they currently selling? And how much less will it be by the time this war ends? Their oil infrastructure might look like Venezuela's before too long.
On June 01 2026 00:17 Billyboy wrote: I have seen numbers and estimates on the cost to rebuild Ukraine. Is there any numbers on the cost and timelines for rebuilding Russia proper? There is almost daily massive infrastructure hits and the cost must be ramping up massively.
Edit: There were only 7 days of refineries not being hit this month and 2 of those were the "ceasefire" and there was also a day with 2 hit and last night 3 were.
The thing is that Russia makes massive profits on current oil sales. They are a petrostate and as long as people buy from them they can rebuild.
Think of this war as them putting their sovereign wealth fund on fire and then borrowing on estimated profits for the next few years. Without that income source they would collapse at the end of the war. Even with it they lost insane amounts of people and income.
Ukraine is far from wrecking that right now. Would probably need another capacity step on top of what they have or that the war goes another 2 years.
The profits are less than they’d be if Russia wasn’t artificially strengthening the ruble. Russia wanted a strong ruble to create deflationary pressure. Imports become less expensive for Russian consumers and foreign buyers have less purchasing power for Russian made goods which keep them for Russian citizens. It also makes Russian labour less competitive globally which is handy if you have a labour shortage and need as much labour as you can domestically. But when your exports are denominated in dollars, as oil is, but your production costs are in rubles then a strong ruble depresses your profits.
Ukraine struck the St Petersburg oil terminal on the eve of Russias big economic forum. Now you get to see giant black plumes of smoke in the background. I’m not going to watch, but it will be interesting to see what economic heavyweights Andrew Tate , Candace Owen’s, and others have to say. 🤣
Also, this week has been massive for non armoured vehicles hit, many records broken with around 500 a day hit. That can’t be good for logistics, and seems more like the new normal. Must be terrifying to be driving a supply truck and going past a bunch of burnt out supply trucks.
On June 04 2026 06:18 ZeroByte13 wrote: Wait what, what is Andrew Tate doing at the economic forum?! This cannot be serious, what does he have to do with economy discussions?
Because it’s really a propaganda event and they need to spread it. At this point they are not getting any grade A people so I guess they settle for grade f? Their spin should be funny with massive black smoke clouds. I wonder if they pretend it didn’t happen, smoking accident, or what the spin will be.
On June 04 2026 06:18 ZeroByte13 wrote: Wait what, what is Andrew Tate doing at the economic forum?! This cannot be serious, what does he have to do with economy discussions?
Maybe they invite him because his name is short for Potato...
On May 30 2026 14:55 Sermokala wrote: At the same time it feels like bait to get NATO to involve themselves into the war, to justify mobilization and changing the status quo. I've been seeing a lot more optimism about the war recently and Ukraine getting consistent drone coverage on the land route to crimera.
We're back in the zone where if the kerch bridge fails the entire southern flank falls with it. That kind of reversal combined with it being the 4th year of war and Ukraines increaseing ability to strike deeply into Russia could be huge.
I think it might be more of a long game plan to retake Crimea. Russia's navy in the Black Sea is stuck at distant ports. Kerch bridge is being periodically destroyed, now northern route is under drone surveillence. This means Crimea is pretty much isolated and it would be impossible to send reinforcements and supplies there. If Ukraine invaded it and took it back even for a moment it would be an insane blow to Putin's regime and no way for them to sell this war as a victory.
OK, that's enough hopium for today. Let's look at this realistically. Ukraine currently enjoys the advantage of having starlink and new intermediate range drones that can hit the supply routes to the south in the land corridor. As well as Russia losing their access to starlink which enabled their forward C&C and medium range supply interdiction. This has allowed Ukraine to do some *minor* gains in the south.
First, as we all know, this war shifts constantly. It's entirely possible a technological counter will be developed. Russia is trying to launch their own starlink equivalent and already have some satellites in orbit. They are supposed to get a rudimentary network going in months. This may be copium, or it may be real. They only need a band covering Ukraine with enough bandwidth for military use, and they can launch satellites. They could also start mass producing cheap AI powered intercept drones to protect their convoys.
But if they don't, and Ukraine manages to blow up the Kerch bridge. Supply is still not strangled 100%. It's unlikely that Ukraine will completely cripple logistics along the land corridor. Drone teams and hidden artillery with drone spotters are the modern equivalent of a WW1 machine gun nest. It's very hard to do a mass assault against it and it's not realistic that Ukraine will cripple this ability 100%. Massive scale maneuver warfare will be almost impossible even with logistic interdiction. And they also have to breach the already prepared defensive line with minefields and fortifications. And they need the troops to do it, which they probably do not have.
I think a best case scenario is more like this:
Ukraine manages to severely impact logistics to the south. Russia is unable to counter with new technology. Ukraine manages to secure a limited air superiority from poor logistics and hunting AA. This creates extremely adverse battlefield conditions for Russia who would rather not fight in the south. Ukraine uses elite brigades to take tactical victories in order for force resources into the south to alleviate pressure from other fronts.
I hope I'm wrong but I don't see some kind of souther miracle in the near future. But Ukraine doesn't really need to aim for it either. They need conditions where there is a low volume of strikes on their logistics and negligible attacks on the frontline so they can preserve troops. And then they need to wait. Latest article I read had Russia on 40% of their budget on the war, already blowing their planned deficit for this year and recommending non defence spending to cut 10% across the board. If this continues and the war stalls out completely with even a minor victory by taking Donetsk out of reach it's just a matter of time.
I also think eventually there will be an effective tools against drones. But the more ground Ukraine gets, the more varieties of drones they can launch, and the more anti drone weapons need to be developed and deployed.
There's been a ton more new videos recently with drone strike, and it truely is a game changer.
My new guilty pleasure is watching the glee in the Ukrainian war bloggers read out what Russian Military bloggers are writing these days. They are way more doom and gloom than the Ukrainians are positive.
My worry is that it’s a plan to get Russians to accept mobilization or something, because it seems strange that they are allowed to talk about this when they have been making up gains that never happened and so on for so long, but it’s happening.
These mid range drones targeting fuel and logistics have really been a game changer.
Been seeing a lot of videos discussing Ukraine's mid range campaign. Hitting Crimea bridges, trains etc. If they can keep it up the southern front for Russia will hurt a lot.
EPT
