EPTOn May 31 2026 05:56 Manit0u wrote:
I think it might be more of a long game plan to retake Crimea. Russia's navy in the Black Sea is stuck at distant ports. Kerch bridge is being periodically destroyed, now northern route is under drone surveillence. This means Crimea is pretty much isolated and it would be impossible to send reinforcements and supplies there. If Ukraine invaded it and took it back even for a moment it would be an insane blow to Putin's regime and no way for them to sell this war as a victory.
I think it might be more of a long game plan to retake Crimea. Russia's navy in the Black Sea is stuck at distant ports. Kerch bridge is being periodically destroyed, now northern route is under drone surveillence. This means Crimea is pretty much isolated and it would be impossible to send reinforcements and supplies there. If Ukraine invaded it and took it back even for a moment it would be an insane blow to Putin's regime and no way for them to sell this war as a victory.
OK, that's enough hopium for today. Let's look at this realistically. Ukraine currently enjoys the advantage of having starlink and new intermediate range drones that can hit the supply routes to the south in the land corridor.
As well as Russia losing their access to starlink which enabled their forward C&C and medium range supply interdiction.
This has allowed Ukraine to do some *minor* gains in the south.
First, as we all know, this war shifts constantly. It's entirely possible a technological counter will be developed. Russia is trying to launch their own starlink equivalent and already have some satellites in orbit. They are supposed to get a rudimentary network going in months. This may be copium, or it may be real. They only need a band covering Ukraine with enough bandwidth for military use, and they can launch satellites.
They could also start mass producing cheap AI powered intercept drones to protect their convoys.
But if they don't, and Ukraine manages to blow up the Kerch bridge. Supply is still not strangled 100%. It's unlikely that Ukraine will completely cripple logistics along the land corridor. Drone teams and hidden artillery with drone spotters are the modern equivalent of a WW1 machine gun nest. It's very hard to do a mass assault against it and it's not realistic that Ukraine will cripple this ability 100%. Massive scale maneuver warfare will be almost impossible even with logistic interdiction.
And they also have to breach the already prepared defensive line with minefields and fortifications.
And they need the troops to do it, which they probably do not have.
I think a best case scenario is more like this:
Ukraine manages to severely impact logistics to the south.
Russia is unable to counter with new technology.
Ukraine manages to secure a limited air superiority from poor logistics and hunting AA.
This creates extremely adverse battlefield conditions for Russia who would rather not fight in the south.
Ukraine uses elite brigades to take tactical victories in order for force resources into the south to alleviate pressure from other fronts.
I hope I'm wrong but I don't see some kind of souther miracle in the near future. But Ukraine doesn't really need to aim for it either. They need conditions where there is a low volume of strikes on their logistics and negligible attacks on the frontline so they can preserve troops. And then they need to wait.
Latest article I read had Russia on 40% of their budget on the war, already blowing their planned deficit for this year and recommending non defence spending to cut 10% across the board.
If this continues and the war stalls out completely with even a minor victory by taking Donetsk out of reach it's just a matter of time.
