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On April 13 2022 04:59 maybenexttime wrote:
Is anyone actually claiming Russia is a Nazi state, though?
I don't think so. Although if you think about it, the similarities are quite staggering... Purging of "lesser races" (even Ukrainians are portrayed as sub-humans by the Russian government), heavy nationalistic approach, irredentism and expansionism ("reclaiming" old territories). Not sure I want to go thinking any deeper than that, it's kinda scary.
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On April 13 2022 04:59 maybenexttime wrote:
Is anyone actually claiming Russia is a Nazi state, though?
People are claiming that Russia is a nazi state in practice. They've killed far more people than Germany ever did and have continue to commit the same atrocities the nazis did in war up until now.
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What? See, that's just nonsense. Germany is not the third Reich and Russia is not the Sowjetunion. Current Russia has killed more people then current Germany and manitues less then the third Reich or the sowjet union under Stalin.
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No, germany did reform and actually critically looked at it's history. Arguably it did this a little late, but it did it to great effect.
Russia never did anything of the sort. Who is the blame for the fall of the CCCP according to Russia? "The West", this is still the dominating sentiment. You don't hear any serious german saying the allies are to blame for nazi-germanies end. The only reason Russia sort of reformed is because it couldn't sustain itself any longer and it basically crashed and burned internally. There was no big cultural change or effort put into making such a change, so here we are again, same shit slightly diffrent costume.
The two are not alike, Russia is very much the direct successor of the CCCP and wants to achieve its former "greatness". Modern Germany is not trying to do the same, not at all.
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On April 13 2022 02:28 mahrgell wrote:Show nested quote +On April 13 2022 01:59 Artesimo wrote:On April 13 2022 01:54 Sent. wrote:Zelensky straight up refused to see the German president. German president Steinmeier's visit to Kyiv 'not wanted'
German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who's currently in Warsaw, said a trip to Ukraine suggested by his Polish counterpart "wasn't wanted" by Kyiv. He has been criticized for his closeness to Russia. Kyiv rejected the proposed trip by German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, he said on Tuesday while visiting Warsaw. Steinmeier had been planning to make a joint visit to Ukraine with Polish President Andrzej Duda and their Estonian, Lithuanian and Latvian counterparts "a strong signal of joint European solidarity with Ukraine." But "that apparently wasn't wanted in Kyiv" Steinmeier said. Ukraine has previously been highly critical of the German president over his connections with Russia and the leading role he played as former foreign minister in improving relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. https://m.dw.com/en/german-president-steinmeiers-visit-to-kyiv-not-wanted/a-61447160 Not sure it's a good time to act like that. People tend to be more willing to give you their money when you're nice to them. I think its good. While a lot of the ukrainian criticism towards germany has felt a bit harsh and unfair, it did believe it helped in swaying public opinion. Politicians had to do something to save face, even if ukrainian demands where impossible to fulfil. Like with ukraine calling for a no fly zone, surely they knew it would be impossible since it would mean war with russia, but it might have helped getting other things to make up for it. Our increased military spending is already getting back-pedalled in part, so a bit of heat seems needed. I don't think this will create any goodwill or sympathy though. It is one thing to have your ambassador run from talk show to talk show and demand the delivery of German submarines, so maybe Berlin gets their heads out of their asses and at least delivers something more than a few helmets. It is a completely different thing to pointlessly agitate the head of state, who is probably the most liked president for the past decades and a former party member of the current ruling party. What is there to gain?
Getting your picture taken with heroic Zelensky is a massive boon to any politician and also the country. It's a reward. Ukraine is denying Germany the reward before they start contributing properly. Note that the presidents of the Baltic countries and Poland are in Kyiv right now. Because they're seen as Ukraine's friends. Germans... oh boy, if you understood Ukrainian as a German, you wouldn't want to watch their public statements at this time.
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Overall, it comes to gaz and who is buying the Russian Gas. Germany is at the center of this discussion because of the politic of leaving Nuclear Power.
Russia is getting what they need. A slow escalation.
A very fast strong reaction from the beginning could not be used in public opinion as an escalation, when the next step is using nukes. 6 months from now, Russian brains may be ready to accept the use of any weapon as they have been proven/brainwashed that the west is "out there to get them" like Putin warned them.
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On April 13 2022 18:55 Ghanburighan wrote:Show nested quote +On April 13 2022 02:28 mahrgell wrote:On April 13 2022 01:59 Artesimo wrote:On April 13 2022 01:54 Sent. wrote:Zelensky straight up refused to see the German president. German president Steinmeier's visit to Kyiv 'not wanted'
German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who's currently in Warsaw, said a trip to Ukraine suggested by his Polish counterpart "wasn't wanted" by Kyiv. He has been criticized for his closeness to Russia. Kyiv rejected the proposed trip by German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, he said on Tuesday while visiting Warsaw. Steinmeier had been planning to make a joint visit to Ukraine with Polish President Andrzej Duda and their Estonian, Lithuanian and Latvian counterparts "a strong signal of joint European solidarity with Ukraine." But "that apparently wasn't wanted in Kyiv" Steinmeier said. Ukraine has previously been highly critical of the German president over his connections with Russia and the leading role he played as former foreign minister in improving relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. https://m.dw.com/en/german-president-steinmeiers-visit-to-kyiv-not-wanted/a-61447160 Not sure it's a good time to act like that. People tend to be more willing to give you their money when you're nice to them. I think its good. While a lot of the ukrainian criticism towards germany has felt a bit harsh and unfair, it did believe it helped in swaying public opinion. Politicians had to do something to save face, even if ukrainian demands where impossible to fulfil. Like with ukraine calling for a no fly zone, surely they knew it would be impossible since it would mean war with russia, but it might have helped getting other things to make up for it. Our increased military spending is already getting back-pedalled in part, so a bit of heat seems needed. I don't think this will create any goodwill or sympathy though. It is one thing to have your ambassador run from talk show to talk show and demand the delivery of German submarines, so maybe Berlin gets their heads out of their asses and at least delivers something more than a few helmets. It is a completely different thing to pointlessly agitate the head of state, who is probably the most liked president for the past decades and a former party member of the current ruling party. What is there to gain? Getting your picture taken with heroic Zelensky is a massive boon to any politician and also the country. It's a reward. Ukraine is denying Germany the reward before they start contributing properly. Note that the presidents of the Baltic countries and Poland are in Kyiv right now. Because they're seen as Ukraine's friends. Germans... oh boy, if you understood Ukrainian as a German, you wouldn't want to watch their public statements at this time.
Is it Germany in particular because of the relations to Russia before Feb '22 or after that?
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Before. Steinmeier in particular is seen as one of the politicians responsible for the development of Russian-German ties before the war.
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On April 13 2022 19:06 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On April 13 2022 18:55 Ghanburighan wrote:On April 13 2022 02:28 mahrgell wrote:On April 13 2022 01:59 Artesimo wrote:On April 13 2022 01:54 Sent. wrote:Zelensky straight up refused to see the German president. German president Steinmeier's visit to Kyiv 'not wanted'
German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who's currently in Warsaw, said a trip to Ukraine suggested by his Polish counterpart "wasn't wanted" by Kyiv. He has been criticized for his closeness to Russia. Kyiv rejected the proposed trip by German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, he said on Tuesday while visiting Warsaw. Steinmeier had been planning to make a joint visit to Ukraine with Polish President Andrzej Duda and their Estonian, Lithuanian and Latvian counterparts "a strong signal of joint European solidarity with Ukraine." But "that apparently wasn't wanted in Kyiv" Steinmeier said. Ukraine has previously been highly critical of the German president over his connections with Russia and the leading role he played as former foreign minister in improving relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. https://m.dw.com/en/german-president-steinmeiers-visit-to-kyiv-not-wanted/a-61447160 Not sure it's a good time to act like that. People tend to be more willing to give you their money when you're nice to them. I think its good. While a lot of the ukrainian criticism towards germany has felt a bit harsh and unfair, it did believe it helped in swaying public opinion. Politicians had to do something to save face, even if ukrainian demands where impossible to fulfil. Like with ukraine calling for a no fly zone, surely they knew it would be impossible since it would mean war with russia, but it might have helped getting other things to make up for it. Our increased military spending is already getting back-pedalled in part, so a bit of heat seems needed. I don't think this will create any goodwill or sympathy though. It is one thing to have your ambassador run from talk show to talk show and demand the delivery of German submarines, so maybe Berlin gets their heads out of their asses and at least delivers something more than a few helmets. It is a completely different thing to pointlessly agitate the head of state, who is probably the most liked president for the past decades and a former party member of the current ruling party. What is there to gain? Getting your picture taken with heroic Zelensky is a massive boon to any politician and also the country. It's a reward. Ukraine is denying Germany the reward before they start contributing properly. Note that the presidents of the Baltic countries and Poland are in Kyiv right now. Because they're seen as Ukraine's friends. Germans... oh boy, if you understood Ukrainian as a German, you wouldn't want to watch their public statements at this time. Is it Germany in particular because of the relations to Russia before Feb '22 or after that?
Both.
Ukrainians remember Merkel blocking their accession to NATO in 2008. They remember Nord Stream I being built to weaken their position as a gas transit state. They remember Germany forcing them into disastrous Minsk agreements. They remember not only Germany not sending them weapons but also blocking other countries from doing so.
After February 24, they remember how German politicians told them that they won't talk to them because "in a few days from now, they won't be in power". While the whole Zeitenwende thing was going on, they became hopeful, but when it became clear that Germany is still blocking major weapon shipments, contributing less and slower than even small countries, and is the primary opponent to ratcheting up sanctions in the EU, the mood became incredibly sour. As Germany was trying do their kumbaya, let's have UA and RU people sit around and sing merry songs for peace, while in the occupied territories countless people were being killed, it was basically read that Germany hasn't Zeitenwended at all, they still don't understand what's going on at the highest levels.
There's more, but these seem to be the main points.
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And still, politics is after all a game of optics.
Before yesterday, German media and public political statements were all about "Why haven't we yet confirmed the delivery of available Marders and Leopards to Ukraine?" and "Why hasn't Scholz traveled to Kyiv yet?"
Today I see mostly articles and opinions across party lines that regardless of how correct it would be, there is no way for Scholz to travel to Kyiv right now or that those weapons should be released at this point in time.
This little act pretty much guaranteed every German office to take an additional week to "check" everything, simply because they would get blasted by public opinion otherwise.
And no, this is not Germany specific. No country in the world would have their president declared a persona non grata, then their chancellor (or whatever equivalent) being "summoned" and then happily declaring a ton of assistance. Especially with the chancellor and president from the same party and the president having extremely favorable ratings in the public.
It will take at least a week for this to move far enough out of the minds of people so things can resume. This is a week, where Germany may not get any pictures as a reward. But I think Ukraine is losing more on this.
So regardless of the prior history: It was simply a game of politics played badly. And even Ukraine's handling of their diplomatic negations with Russia is more professional than this.
And to be clear: This is without any personal judgment from me on the issue. But just the basic theory of politics.
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How is the Geman-Russian relationship built on Steinmeier? I don't quite understand the viewpoint. Can anyone explain?
I do remember him holding a Ukraine fundraising concert at his residence and one soloist was Russian.
Seems to be retaliation for that to me (but not sure here as I'm lacking info), as they will receive Scholz it seems?
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I do understand the before part.
The after part, not so much. Why is everyone relying on Germany for weapons of all things? We don't have any. We produce them, yes (with Russian gas btw. The irony). Ordering and shipment of newly produced stuff takes years. We could supply them in 2024 or sth. Most of our neighbours have a higher military budget and a bigger standing army. The words "military, weapons, war" are only touched with a 10 ft pole. That's why every politician here tries to dance around it. Velr said it earlier:
On April 13 2022 17:34 Velr wrote:
No, germany did reform and actually critically looked at it's history. Arguably it did this a little late, but it did it to great effect.
Russia never did anything of the sort. Who is the blame for the fall of the CCCP according to Russia? "The West", this is still the dominating sentiment. You don't hear any serious german saying the allies are to blame for nazi-germanies end. The only reason Russia sort of reformed is because it couldn't sustain itself any longer and it basically crashed and burned internally. There was no big cultural change or effort put into making such a change, so here we are again, same shit slightly diffrent costume.
The two are not alike, Russia is very much the direct successor of the CCCP and wants to achieve its former "greatness". Modern Germany is not trying to do the same, not at all.
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On April 13 2022 20:10 Artisreal wrote:
How is the Geman-Russian relationship built on Steinmeier? I don't quite understand the viewpoint. Can anyone explain?
I do remember him holding a Ukraine fundraising concert at his residence and one soloist was Russian.
Seems to be retaliation for that to me (but not sure here as I'm lacking info), as they will receive Scholz it seems? Steinmeier is seen as the person behind the German/Russian relations, which is why Ukraine doesn't want to give him a PR photo-op. They view his diplomatic policy as contributing to Russia's willingness to go to war again.
Its not about a single incident during a charity.
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On April 13 2022 20:25 Harris1st wrote:I do understand the before part. The after part, not so much. Why is everyone relying on Germany for weapons of all things? We don't have any. We produce them, yes (with Russian gas btw. The irony). Ordering and shipment of newly produced stuff takes years. We could supply them in 2024 or sth. Most of our neighbours have a higher military budget and a bigger standing army. The words "military, weapons, war" are only touched with a 10 ft pole. That's why every politician here tries to dance around it. Velr said it earlier: Show nested quote +On April 13 2022 17:34 Velr wrote:
No, germany did reform and actually critically looked at it's history. Arguably it did this a little late, but it did it to great effect.
Russia never did anything of the sort. Who is the blame for the fall of the CCCP according to Russia? "The West", this is still the dominating sentiment. You don't hear any serious german saying the allies are to blame for nazi-germanies end. The only reason Russia sort of reformed is because it couldn't sustain itself any longer and it basically crashed and burned internally. There was no big cultural change or effort put into making such a change, so here we are again, same shit slightly diffrent costume.
The two are not alike, Russia is very much the direct successor of the CCCP and wants to achieve its former "greatness". Modern Germany is not trying to do the same, not at all. Its not just weapons. Germany has also constantly been the reported voice against most sanctions, even outside of Gas/oil. Germany was also the main force blocking the Swift ban for example until they finally relented.
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On April 13 2022 19:05 0x64 wrote:
Overall, it comes to gaz and who is buying the Russian Gas. Germany is at the center of this discussion because of the politic of leaving Nuclear Power.
Sorry for the derailment, but I wish I would get 5€ every time someone makes the mistake of thinking nuclear energy has anything to do with german need for gas. The gas is mostly used for heating. You can't replace that with electricity without also investing a ton in infrastructure, and I don't even know if that would not be a downgrade. But it doesn't matter since we used to have nuclear energy, and we still did use gas for heating for various reasons. If we lived in an alternate timeline where we not opt out of nuclear power while also being willing to invest into changing out the infrastructure, then this would be a valid remark. But it isnt't.
The other big use is industry, where my impression is that it is also not replaceable with electricity because it is either an essential component, or you need the ability to very rapidly generate high temperatures.
Yes, german reliance on russian gas bad, no, nuclear power would not have made this good. We are not at the center of this discussion because we got out of nuclear power, but because we wanted a cheap reliable source of gas. That and there also used to be the theory of economic coupling, it worked great with france, but probably should have been thrown out of the window after the annexation of crimea.
Russia is getting what they need. A slow escalation.
A very fast strong reaction from the beginning could not be used in public opinion as an escalation, when the next step is using nukes. 6 months from now, Russian brains may be ready to accept the use of any weapon as they have been proven/brainwashed that the west is "out there to get them" like Putin warned them.
I don't think they are getting what they needed. They wanted a fast and clear victory, instead they are getting their own vietnam. I don't even see the slow escalation tbh, Russia invaded ukraine with a large force and no provocation, tried to rush down kiev, got bogged down and quickly started shelling civilian areas. I don't think any of their actions actually matter for the public opinion at home because their propaganda was already set up.
I assume this post was influenced by the recent reports of use of chemical weapons, russia has been preparing the groundworks for that for a long time now, this is a pretty nice summary of their actions that might have been intended to lay the groundwork for further escalation https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/warning-update-russia-may-conduct-chemical-or-radiological-false-flag-attack-pretext
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Finnish and Swedish PMs just held a joint news conference, essentially announcing that both of them will seek to join NATO. The crucial bit of logic that they made clear is that Finland must apply first, and Sweden can only follow after that fact. But both of them are in favour of joining NATO now.
Here's a thread with a rough English paraphrase for more details:
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Actually, the government is still weighing the options on NATO here. Consensus seems to be that we will follow Finland's decision. And since Finland seems to want to join, it will probably happen, but the government officials are still sounding pretty skeptical.
On April 13 2022 20:41 Artesimo wrote:Show nested quote +On April 13 2022 19:05 0x64 wrote:
Overall, it comes to gaz and who is buying the Russian Gas. Germany is at the center of this discussion because of the politic of leaving Nuclear Power.
Sorry for the derailment, but I wish I would get 5€ every time someone makes the mistake of thinking nuclear energy has anything to do with german need for gas. The gas is mostly used for heating.
Why do you think heating in Germany relies so much on gas instead of electricity? It's because of the strong history of being against nuclear power (dating from the 70s), which is just unequivocally one of the biggest political own goals in modern European politics. And besides, around 12% of German electricity production comes from gas (and another 20% from coal, much of it Russian, which is just insanely bad, but I digress).
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What?! How does Germany have a need for Coal that they have to import it? Isn't Coal/Steel one the reasons Germany became a global empire in less than 15 years in late 1800's...
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EPT
