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On April 14 2022 06:18 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Reports coming in that the Russian flagship of Black Sea fleet has been damaged by Ukrainian forces.
Russian newswire TASS reports:
As a result of a fire on the Moskva missile cruiser, ammunition detonated, the crew was completely evacuated, the Russian Defense Ministry said:
Forbes did a great write-up of what it offers the Russian Navy in the Black Sea Fleet. It's also a humiliating loss to have a flagship damaged or possibly sunk. More amusingly, this the vessel that was told, "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."
The Biden admin is also sending $800 million in a new tranche of military support, with
...11 Mi-17 helicopters, 300 Switchblade drones, 18 Howitzers and protective equipment to guard against chemical attacks in the latest batch of security assistance approved by the White House, the Pentagon announced. In addition, the new weapons package includes 200 M113 armored personnel carriers, 10 counter-artillery radars, 500 Javelin anti-tank missiles and 30,000 sets of body armor and helmets. Source
To me, it sounds like some of the resistance to sending heavy equipment to Ukraine is melting away and there is some confidence that Ukraine can win an offensive in the east.
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On April 14 2022 08:38 PhoenixVoid wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2022 06:18 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Reports coming in that the Russian flagship of Black Sea fleet has been damaged by Ukrainian forces. Russian newswire TASS reports: Show nested quote +As a result of a fire on the Moskva missile cruiser, ammunition detonated, the crew was completely evacuated, the Russian Defense Ministry said: https://twitter.com/tass_agency/status/1514378082660069379Forbes did a great write-up of what it offers the Russian Navy in the Black Sea Fleet. It's also a humiliating loss to have a flagship damaged or possibly sunk. More amusingly, this the vessel that was told, "Russian warship, go fuck yourself." The Biden admin is also sending $800 million in a new tranche of military support, with Show nested quote +...11 Mi-17 helicopters, 300 Switchblade drones, 18 Howitzers and protective equipment to guard against chemical attacks in the latest batch of security assistance approved by the White House, the Pentagon announced. In addition, the new weapons package includes 200 M113 armored personnel carriers, 10 counter-artillery radars, 500 Javelin anti-tank missiles and 30,000 sets of body armor and helmets. Source To me, it sounds like some of the resistance to sending heavy equipment to Ukraine is melting away and there is some confidence that Ukraine can win an offensive in the east.
Apparently the ship has sunk.
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That's actually incredible that they sunk the Moskva. It honestly seems to me more likely every day that Ukraine manages to do a full repulsion of Russian forces
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On April 14 2022 14:15 plasmidghost wrote:
That's actually incredible that they sunk the Moskva. It honestly seems to me more likely every day that Ukraine manages to do a full repulsion of Russian forces
I really hope they do, but I don't think they'll be able to push Russia out of the Donbas region. I really want to be wrong though.
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On April 14 2022 14:41 StasisField wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2022 14:15 plasmidghost wrote:
That's actually incredible that they sunk the Moskva. It honestly seems to me more likely every day that Ukraine manages to do a full repulsion of Russian forces I really hope they do, but I don't think they'll be able to push Russia out of the Donbas region. I really want to be wrong though.
I definitely feel that, but my line of thinking is that I fully expected Ukraine to completely fall within two weeks, but seeing recurrent international support and the sheer incompetence of the Russian military to me reduces their likelihood of being able to hold onto the Donbas
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On April 14 2022 06:56 Biff The Understudy wrote:Show nested quote +On April 13 2022 23:51 Ghanburighan wrote:On April 13 2022 22:30 Velr wrote:On April 13 2022 21:50 Artesimo wrote:On April 13 2022 21:30 Elroi wrote:
Why do you think heating in Germany relies so much on gas instead of electricity? It's because of the strong history of being against nuclear power (dating from the 70s), which is just unequivocally one of the biggest political own goals in modern European politics. And besides, around 12% of German electricity production comes from gas (and another 20% from coal, much of it Russian, which is just insanely bad, but I digress). Sorry, I don't want to derail this thread even more than I already have. My initial post had at least some connection to the war in ukraine, but I can't really make that connection here, so I am just gonna drop it. ... no one (including me) expected russia/putin to go full retard aside from some eastern europeans which were more worried for (what used to be) historical reasons. This is such an infuriating piece of westsplaining. No, it wasn't for historical reasons. We had accurate intelligence about what Putin was doing. And we weren't blinded by money when Putin started invading Georgia and Ukraine. That intelligence was shared over and over again with NATO allies. Who, rudely and cynically, kept stonewalling on the issue because reality was unpalatable at the highest political level in most Western countries. Trust me, if you had been in a single committee meeting on these topics, you'd be raging at this point as well. All of this could have been avoided a decade ago. I am already annoyed with the whole mansplaining crap, can you guys refrain to accuse people of westplaining? Because we are reaching a point when you can’t say something without being accused of somethingsplaining and seriously, it’s dumb. Eadtern europeans are not the only ones having a legitimacy to talk about eastern europe. Or we stop discussing at all about any other country and situation than our own and we can close this thread, and every other.
How about no? Accusations of "westsplaining" are one of the rather meager tools available to combat the thinly veiled racism towards eastern Europeans so very pervasive in Western Europe. "Eastern Europeans don't have real information, they have 'historical reasons'".
Considering how monumentally wrong Germany, France, and other repeat offenders were on Russia, which led to a genocidal invasion that will lead to the deaths of tens of thousands of innocent civilians, it's time to learn and change. These atrocities cannot be allowed to be repeated. And if this comes at the cost of some very proud people eating humble pie for a while, I think that's acceptable.
Everyone can participate in a discussion, but leave racism behind and accept that eastern Europeans cannot be brushed aside, they have valuable contributions to make.
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Uhhh racism is too much. Maybe paternalism or some other word would work better here.
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We discussed UA refusing Steinmeier's visit recently, Benjamin Tallis has an extensive thread on its background and implications.
Tldr: In terms of policy, DE is seen to only react to external pressure, so UA is piling up to get things it needs now. (But read the thread, it's much more subtle.)
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On April 14 2022 15:55 Sent. wrote:
Uhhh racism is too much. Maybe paternalism or some other word would work better here.
Actually, no. The UN considers ethnic discrimination equal to racism.
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On April 14 2022 15:44 Ghanburighan wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2022 06:56 Biff The Understudy wrote:On April 13 2022 23:51 Ghanburighan wrote:On April 13 2022 22:30 Velr wrote:On April 13 2022 21:50 Artesimo wrote:On April 13 2022 21:30 Elroi wrote:
Why do you think heating in Germany relies so much on gas instead of electricity? It's because of the strong history of being against nuclear power (dating from the 70s), which is just unequivocally one of the biggest political own goals in modern European politics. And besides, around 12% of German electricity production comes from gas (and another 20% from coal, much of it Russian, which is just insanely bad, but I digress). Sorry, I don't want to derail this thread even more than I already have. My initial post had at least some connection to the war in ukraine, but I can't really make that connection here, so I am just gonna drop it. ... no one (including me) expected russia/putin to go full retard aside from some eastern europeans which were more worried for (what used to be) historical reasons. This is such an infuriating piece of westsplaining. No, it wasn't for historical reasons. We had accurate intelligence about what Putin was doing. And we weren't blinded by money when Putin started invading Georgia and Ukraine. That intelligence was shared over and over again with NATO allies. Who, rudely and cynically, kept stonewalling on the issue because reality was unpalatable at the highest political level in most Western countries. Trust me, if you had been in a single committee meeting on these topics, you'd be raging at this point as well. All of this could have been avoided a decade ago. I am already annoyed with the whole mansplaining crap, can you guys refrain to accuse people of westplaining? Because we are reaching a point when you can’t say something without being accused of somethingsplaining and seriously, it’s dumb. Eadtern europeans are not the only ones having a legitimacy to talk about eastern europe. Or we stop discussing at all about any other country and situation than our own and we can close this thread, and every other. How about no? Accusations of "westsplaining" are one of the rather meager tools available to combat the thinly veiled racism towards eastern Europeans so very pervasive in Western Europe. "Eastern Europeans don't have real information, they have 'historical reasons'". Considering how monumentally wrong Germany, France, and other repeat offenders were on Russia, which led to a genocidal invasion that will lead to the deaths of tens of thousands of innocent civilians, it's time to learn and change. These atrocities cannot be allowed to be repeated. And if this comes at the cost of some very proud people eating humble pie for a while, I think that's acceptable. Everyone can participate in a discussion, but leave racism behind and accept that eastern Europeans cannot be brushed aside, they have valuable contributions to make.
It seems to me that it is you that has a strong antipathy for "western" countries rather than the other way around tbh.
Also this whole western/ eastern divide is something that is created and catered for by you guys. Nobody I know cares about the terms.
EDIT: Maybe it's a thing in the US?
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Zurich15328 Posts
On April 14 2022 15:56 Ghanburighan wrote:We discussed UA refusing Steinmeier's visit recently, Benjamin Tallis has an extensive thread on its background and implications. Tldr: In terms of policy, DE is seen to only react to external pressure, so UA is piling up to get things it needs now. (But read the thread, it's much more subtle.) https://twitter.com/bctallis/status/1514284713300660232
If the snubbing of the German president was meant to "empower German politicians who push for stronger policy" then this was an enormous miscall, and uncharacteristic of a Zelensky government that so far showed to be very adept in foreign relations.
It also shows very poor understanding of Germany (as does the quoted thread). Germany isn't some monolithic block, but a multipolar society. It is currently governed by the most Russia-friendly of the main stream parties. The German government is primarily accountable to the German people, which will always override outside pressure. The German president is understood in Germany to stand above party politics, to represent the country, and in the person of Steinmeier is very highly regarded with the German public.
Whatever the cause or the aim of uninviting Steinmeier was, the result at least is clear. Ukraine could hardly have done more to push Germany away. You can write endlessly what Germany "should" do, whatever that is it's going to be much more difficult now. Scholz and the government will have a much more difficult time now to deliver on the promised Zeitenwende. Scholz will have it much, much more difficult to get his tentatively Russia friendly party in line. You will have voices from the civil society being heard that it was a mistake, and Germany should go back to the status quo. The Russia friendly block of the extreme right and left is empowered and was suddenly delivered a gotcha argument to use every time someone proposes more help for Ukraine.
None of this was going to happen just two days ago. But for the past two days all Germany has been talking about was the snubbing of their president, instead of talking what more can be done for Ukraine. And it will take a lot more time to get the conversation back to a universally supportive tone toward Ukraine. If ever.
Mind you, this is coming from someone who is all-in on Ukraine, and who wishes nothing more that for Germany to get their full support behind Ukraine. Which, unfortunately, is now much less realistic that it was two days ago.
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On April 14 2022 08:38 PhoenixVoid wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2022 06:18 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Reports coming in that the Russian flagship of Black Sea fleet has been damaged by Ukrainian forces. Russian newswire TASS reports: Show nested quote +As a result of a fire on the Moskva missile cruiser, ammunition detonated, the crew was completely evacuated, the Russian Defense Ministry said: https://twitter.com/tass_agency/status/1514378082660069379Forbes did a great write-up of what it offers the Russian Navy in the Black Sea Fleet. It's also a humiliating loss to have a flagship damaged or possibly sunk. More amusingly, this the vessel that was told, "Russian warship, go fuck yourself." The Biden admin is also sending $800 million in a new tranche of military support, with Show nested quote +...11 Mi-17 helicopters, 300 Switchblade drones, 18 Howitzers and protective equipment to guard against chemical attacks in the latest batch of security assistance approved by the White House, the Pentagon announced. In addition, the new weapons package includes 200 M113 armored personnel carriers, 10 counter-artillery radars, 500 Javelin anti-tank missiles and 30,000 sets of body armor and helmets. Source To me, it sounds like some of the resistance to sending heavy equipment to Ukraine is melting away and there is some confidence that Ukraine can win an offensive in the east. I imagine a lot of the initial reluctance for heavy equipment was at least in part due to not knowing if Ukraine could hold, and not wanting to basically hand said heavy equipment to Russia incase Ukraine did fall.
With the Russians being pushed back from the western parts of the country and moving to a more defensive posture to hold on to gains in the east the threat of Ukraine falling is dramatically reduced, so its safer to send in heavy equipment without it being captured by Russia.
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On April 14 2022 16:50 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2022 15:44 Ghanburighan wrote:On April 14 2022 06:56 Biff The Understudy wrote:On April 13 2022 23:51 Ghanburighan wrote:On April 13 2022 22:30 Velr wrote:On April 13 2022 21:50 Artesimo wrote:On April 13 2022 21:30 Elroi wrote:
Why do you think heating in Germany relies so much on gas instead of electricity? It's because of the strong history of being against nuclear power (dating from the 70s), which is just unequivocally one of the biggest political own goals in modern European politics. And besides, around 12% of German electricity production comes from gas (and another 20% from coal, much of it Russian, which is just insanely bad, but I digress). Sorry, I don't want to derail this thread even more than I already have. My initial post had at least some connection to the war in ukraine, but I can't really make that connection here, so I am just gonna drop it. ... no one (including me) expected russia/putin to go full retard aside from some eastern europeans which were more worried for (what used to be) historical reasons. This is such an infuriating piece of westsplaining. No, it wasn't for historical reasons. We had accurate intelligence about what Putin was doing. And we weren't blinded by money when Putin started invading Georgia and Ukraine. That intelligence was shared over and over again with NATO allies. Who, rudely and cynically, kept stonewalling on the issue because reality was unpalatable at the highest political level in most Western countries. Trust me, if you had been in a single committee meeting on these topics, you'd be raging at this point as well. All of this could have been avoided a decade ago. I am already annoyed with the whole mansplaining crap, can you guys refrain to accuse people of westplaining? Because we are reaching a point when you can’t say something without being accused of somethingsplaining and seriously, it’s dumb. Eadtern europeans are not the only ones having a legitimacy to talk about eastern europe. Or we stop discussing at all about any other country and situation than our own and we can close this thread, and every other. How about no? Accusations of "westsplaining" are one of the rather meager tools available to combat the thinly veiled racism towards eastern Europeans so very pervasive in Western Europe. "Eastern Europeans don't have real information, they have 'historical reasons'". Considering how monumentally wrong Germany, France, and other repeat offenders were on Russia, which led to a genocidal invasion that will lead to the deaths of tens of thousands of innocent civilians, it's time to learn and change. These atrocities cannot be allowed to be repeated. And if this comes at the cost of some very proud people eating humble pie for a while, I think that's acceptable. Everyone can participate in a discussion, but leave racism behind and accept that eastern Europeans cannot be brushed aside, they have valuable contributions to make. It seems to me that it is you that has a strong antipathy for "western" countries rather than the other way around tbh. Also this whole western/ eastern divide is something that is created and catered for by you guys. Nobody I know cares about the terms. EDIT: Maybe it's a thing in the US?
Think about this for a while. You're accusing me of racism against Western countries because I call out racism from people in Western countries. So, how does one fight against racism?
+ Show Spoiler +If you don't believe me about the pervasiveness. Here's a tweet on my wall right now from one of the primary journalists working for the Estonian Diplomatic newspaper:
What we have to establish is the following: Ukraine and countries like Estonia have been right about Russia all along, and countries that made historical miscalculations like Germany and France need to stop stonewalling them on the topic of their competence. Eastern Europeans aren't sub-humans, we can have correct information and valuable insights too.
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On April 14 2022 16:56 zatic wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2022 15:56 Ghanburighan wrote:We discussed UA refusing Steinmeier's visit recently, Benjamin Tallis has an extensive thread on its background and implications. Tldr: In terms of policy, DE is seen to only react to external pressure, so UA is piling up to get things it needs now. (But read the thread, it's much more subtle.) https://twitter.com/bctallis/status/1514284713300660232 If the snubbing of the German president was meant to "empower German politicians who push for stronger policy" then this was an enormous miscall, and uncharacteristic of a Zelensky government that so far showed to be very adept in foreign relations. + Show Spoiler +It also shows very poor understanding of Germany (as does the quoted thread). Germany isn't some monolithic block, but a multipolar society. It is currently governed by the most Russia-friendly of the main stream parties. The German government is primarily accountable to the German people, and only secondary to outside pressure. The German president is understood in Germany to stand above party politics, to represent the country, and in the person of Steinmeier is very highly regarded with the German public.
Whatever the cause or the aim of uninviting Steinmeier was, the result at least is clear. Ukraine could hardly have done more to push Germany away. You can write endlessly what Germany "should" do, whatever that is it's going to be much more difficult now. Scholz and the government will have a much more difficult time now to deliver on the promised Zeitenwende. Scholz will have it much, much more difficult to get his tentatively Russia friendly party in line. You will have voices from the civil society being heard that it was a mistake, and Germany should go back to the status quo. The Russia friendly block of the extreme right and left is empowered and was suddenly delivered a gotcha argument to use every time someone proposes more help for Ukraine.
None of this was going to happen just two days ago. But for the past two days all Germany has been talking about was the snubbing of their president, instead of talking what more can be done for Ukraine. And it will take a lot more time to get the conversation back to a universally supportive tone toward Ukraine. If ever.
Mind you, this is coming from someone who is all-in on Ukraine, and who wishes nothing more that for Germany to get their full support behind Ukraine. Which, unfortunately, is now much less realistic that it was two days ago.
I tend to agree. But I think Zelensky didn't conceive of this alone. There are many foreign policy establishments that fundamentally doubt Zeitenwende being real, and also ascribe to the theory that Germany only changed its tune in response to external pressure. (Some of these are Germans working in diplomacy in Brussels.)
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On April 14 2022 16:56 zatic wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2022 15:56 Ghanburighan wrote:We discussed UA refusing Steinmeier's visit recently, Benjamin Tallis has an extensive thread on its background and implications. Tldr: In terms of policy, DE is seen to only react to external pressure, so UA is piling up to get things it needs now. (But read the thread, it's much more subtle.) https://twitter.com/bctallis/status/1514284713300660232 If the snubbing of the German president was meant to "empower German politicians who push for stronger policy" then this was an enormous miscall, and uncharacteristic of a Zelensky government that so far showed to be very adept in foreign relations. It also shows very poor understanding of Germany (as does the quoted thread). Germany isn't some monolithic block, but a multipolar society. It is currently governed by the most Russia-friendly of the main stream parties. The German government is primarily accountable to the German people, which will always override outside pressure. The German president is understood in Germany to stand above party politics, to represent the country, and in the person of Steinmeier is very highly regarded with the German public. Whatever the cause or the aim of uninviting Steinmeier was, the result at least is clear. Ukraine could hardly have done more to push Germany away. You can write endlessly what Germany "should" do, whatever that is it's going to be much more difficult now. Scholz and the government will have a much more difficult time now to deliver on the promised Zeitenwende. Scholz will have it much, much more difficult to get his tentatively Russia friendly party in line. You will have voices from the civil society being heard that it was a mistake, and Germany should go back to the status quo. The Russia friendly block of the extreme right and left is empowered and was suddenly delivered a gotcha argument to use every time someone proposes more help for Ukraine. None of this was going to happen just two days ago. But for the past two days all Germany has been talking about was the snubbing of their president, instead of talking what more can be done for Ukraine. And it will take a lot more time to get the conversation back to a universally supportive tone toward Ukraine. If ever. Mind you, this is coming from someone who is all-in on Ukraine, and who wishes nothing more that for Germany to get their full support behind Ukraine. Which, unfortunately, is now much less realistic that it was two days ago.
The thing is that Ukraine has internal politics as well and since he's seen as one of the architects of a soft stance on Russia and the Minsk accords he's very unpopular in Ukraine. I don't disagree that disinviting the German president shows a poor understanding of Germany but him wanting to come in the first place shows a poor understanding of Ukraine as well.
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Maybe he thought it shouldn't be an issue because von der Leyen was welcomed in Kyiv earlier.
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It's also possible that he has given up on trying to get more from Germany, and that by doing that he is signalling a sense of urgency that helps in getting other, more committed partners, to deliver more. Zelenskyy's short term goal is withstanding the offensive in the Donbass in the next days, and getting as much heavy weaponry as possible (which isn't going to come from Germany). Germany will probably be instrumental in defining what the support for post war reconstruction is going to look like, but Ukraine can't afford to be thinking that far ahead.
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HAHAHAHA! They did it again! First the Saratov alegdly destroyed by "accidental fire" and now "Mosva" alegdly destroyed by another accidental fire.
Ukrainians first reported rocket strike on a ship, hours before Russians informed about "fire" on a board. If Russians think that anyone believe that Ukrainians could have any intel about this, than they are hopeless and will believe even in the donkey incident being responsible.
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EPT
