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Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 867

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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
Jankisa
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
Croatia1322 Posts
October 21 2025 13:02 GMT
#17321
What is really confusing with the Trump approach to foregin policy is that if he actually implemented a doctrine that people around him, on paper say he wants, which is "China is our number 1 geopolitical rival and we have to be ready to counter them" and this is why he's pulling back Ukraine support, says no focus on Russia and that's how he explains his approach everything USA has been doing is the opposite of what they should.

They alienated India which is the only real counter balance to China.
They are signaling they are not interested in security for Taiwan outside of selling them weapons.
They are allowing Nvidia to sell them higher end chips as long as they get a 15 % cut.

None of this shit makes sense.

This Budapest thing is just political theater between Orban, Putin and Trump, designed to boost Orban's approval ratings ahead of their elections and to buy more time for Putin to try and make more territorial gains while the aid that was promised to Ukraine dries up.

It's insanely cynical and stupid.

On the topic of Taiwan and China, I think the analysis that China would have any real military issues taking Taiwan is laughable.

On the other hand, they would have huge economic consequences, and unlike Trump, the Chinese seem to have the interest of themselves and the world being fat and happy in the current (or a few years ago) status quo in mind.

I'm all for it, after Gaza and whatever the fuck is happening in the USA and Russia I can say that I'm beginning to like the Chinese approach, at least their ethnic cleansing is more humane, their repression mechanisms more chill and their approach to territorial expansion more laid back.
So, are you a pessimist? - On my better days. Are you a nihilist? - Not as much as I should be.
LightSpectra
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
United States2385 Posts
October 21 2025 13:13 GMT
#17322
On October 21 2025 22:02 Jankisa wrote:
What is really confusing with the Trump approach to foregin policy is that if he actually implemented a doctrine that people around him, on paper say he wants, which is "China is our number 1 geopolitical rival and we have to be ready to counter them" and this is why he's pulling back Ukraine support, says no focus on Russia and that's how he explains his approach everything USA has been doing is the opposite of what they should.

They alienated India which is the only real counter balance to China.
They are signaling they are not interested in security for Taiwan outside of selling them weapons.
They are allowing Nvidia to sell them higher end chips as long as they get a 15 % cut.

None of this shit makes sense.

This Budapest thing is just political theater between Orban, Putin and Trump, designed to boost Orban's approval ratings ahead of their elections and to buy more time for Putin to try and make more territorial gains while the aid that was promised to Ukraine dries up.

It's insanely cynical and stupid.

On the topic of Taiwan and China, I think the analysis that China would have any real military issues taking Taiwan is laughable.

On the other hand, they would have huge economic consequences, and unlike Trump, the Chinese seem to have the interest of themselves and the world being fat and happy in the current (or a few years ago) status quo in mind.

I'm all for it, after Gaza and whatever the fuck is happening in the USA and Russia I can say that I'm beginning to like the Chinese approach, at least their ethnic cleansing is more humane, their repression mechanisms more chill and their approach to territorial expansion more laid back.


Trump's foreign policy only exists for two purposes: 1) personal enrichment, 2) material for ad campaigns.

If he can't get rich off of it, then the next best thing is a campaign slogan like "president of peace". If he can't get either of those things, there is no policy. It's whatever mood he's in for the day combined with the opinions of the last person he talked to.
2006 Shinhan Bank OSL Season 3 was the greatest tournament of all time
Jankisa
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
Croatia1322 Posts
October 21 2025 13:29 GMT
#17323
Sure, but he and people around him still have to at least do the dance. I don't think US military, even post purge number who the fuck knows would be happy about their civilian leadership coming to them and saying "your job is now to overturn governments in South America and the last 30 years of us having a strong military to counter China and protect our allies there is dead".

"PS: your job will also be to shoot your fellow citizens if they oppose me but we'll talk about that later".

They still come to NATO meetings and ask allies to put tariffs and sanctions on China as a prerequisite for him to put more on Russia:

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-china-donald-trump-russia-politics-ukraine-nato-tariffs/

On paper, this is still what's going on. In practice, well, who the fuck knows.
So, are you a pessimist? - On my better days. Are you a nihilist? - Not as much as I should be.
Manit0u
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
Poland17707 Posts
October 21 2025 20:43 GMT
#17324
On October 21 2025 22:02 Jankisa wrote:
I'm beginning to like the Chinese approach, at least their ethnic cleansing is more humane, their repression mechanisms more chill and their approach to territorial expansion more laid back.


What? How does "ethnic cleansing" and "humane" go together?
Time is precious. Waste it wisely.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23797 Posts
Last Edited: 2025-10-21 21:30:20
October 21 2025 21:13 GMT
#17325
On October 22 2025 05:43 Manit0u wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 21 2025 22:02 Jankisa wrote:
I'm beginning to like the Chinese approach, at least their ethnic cleansing is more humane, their repression mechanisms more chill and their approach to territorial expansion more laid back.


What? How does "ethnic cleansing" and "humane" go together?

Typical Tankie talk

A more familiar phrase might be "the lesser evil".
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
ETisME
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
12702 Posts
October 21 2025 21:42 GMT
#17326
On October 21 2025 19:38 Excludos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 21 2025 15:49 ETisME wrote:
On October 14 2025 11:04 Manit0u wrote:
On October 08 2025 05:12 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:
On October 08 2025 04:48 KwarK wrote:
If Poland could have moved out of Europe it would have. Poland exudes “I have to live with you (Germany) but I don’t have to like you” energy. But what are they going to do, be friends with the Russians instead?


I don't really see a big problem with Poland. They are a large, conservative eastern European country. They are now ascending into becoming a regional power and are starting to take their place in Europe. That's going to chafe a bit for both sides.Eventually they are going to have to moderate their general anti-EU stance (or leave). I don't see it happening soon and I don't see the younger generation of Poles wanting to leave EU so the boomers have time do die off


It's not even the boomers. It's the fact that sadly our conservative parties are relying on all the Polish martyrdom and highly nationalistic and deeply catholic rhetoric to stay in power. Unfortunately this resonates pretty well with people who are not that well off and with lower education. Might say a typical voter base for conservative parties anywhere in the world.

The problem is that they love to rile people up and EU is an easy target (for historical reasons because of Germany and nationalistic reasons because of EU law etc.) but at the same time they will never admit that joining the EU has moved Poland leaps and bounds ahead in terms of development as a country and that we were a very big beneficiary of EU grants (instead they claim stuff done with EU money as their own awesome success while saying that the EU was trying to thwart them).

Thankfully our government alone can't do this as they'd have to do a full nation-wide referendum for it (like was the case with joining the EU) and I don't think it would pass. I don't expect Poland leaving the EU anytime soon.

And our current government (with the exception of the president) is pro-EU too so no worries there I guess.

Let's not have one of the few EU nations that have been correct on both economic and military policies for past couple of years, fallen to whatever western Europe is.
Sleep walked into trusting russia for energy, china on chips and green tech. Now China can literally freeze up the entire automobile chip sector (and yes, if they can halt rare earth shipment to the US, they can do way worse to the EU)

A strong nationalistic country is the correct politics when your next door neighbor is Russia.

Taiwan made a huge mistake by appealing to Democrats and EU leaders, and relied on soft power rather than stepping up in military strength.

Also just to stay on topic: https://www.politico.eu/article/military-aid-ukraine-kaja-kallas-ukraine-eu-leaders-rounds-artillery/
more aids, more aids, more war and more aids.


There is absolutely zero amount of military muster Taiwan could do to stand up against China on their own. They have a population of 23.6 million vs China's 1.4 billion. They live on a small island the size of Belgium. There is simply no amount of investment, technology, tactics, strategy or otherwise that could possibly let them David that Goliath. Not even if the Chinese military showed themselves to be as incompetent as Russia, which all indications shows they aren't.

Democracy and alliances is literally the only option for Taiwan. And as long as they continue to single-handedly control the world's top microchip production, they are sitting on the biggest trump card that genuinely assures economic destruction for the west if we let it get taken or destroyed. Supporting Taiwan is a no-brainer, but you can't easily plan around certain people being genuinely brain dead

Taiwan defense strategy is not holding off China on its own but to hold on until the US and pacific asia allies to join in.

Are you saying Taiwan leaning on right wing would mean it has no democracy? Alliance is built on having common enemy and strong alliance with the US.

Taiwan military panelists have been warning Taiwan gov not to overly appease to democrats and the EU on issues like green energy and identity politics. And they had been warning Taiwan not to get distracted by them.

On October 21 2025 22:02 Jankisa wrote:
They alienated India which is the only real counter balance to China.

This guy gets it.
Asia as a whole is far more right wing/nationalists.
其疾如风,其徐如林,侵掠如火,不动如山,难知如阴,动如雷震。
Velr
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
Switzerland10870 Posts
Last Edited: 2025-10-23 12:02:52
October 23 2025 11:24 GMT
#17327
Sorry but, what? What does "appease" the EU on green energy (wtf?) and identity politics even mean.

Or did you just search a convoluted way to say "don't do something Trump could feel bad about?", which is basically everything depending on what time of day it is and who he talked last with.
xM(Z
Profile Joined November 2006
Romania5299 Posts
October 23 2025 15:18 GMT
#17328
or, it could mean that if taiwan wants/needs EU support, giving in to those EU demands(...) would have taiwans' gov. lose the support of its people and the chinese-taiwanese side could edge-out a win, politically.
And my fury stands ready. I bring all your plans to nought. My bleak heart beats steady. 'Tis you whom I have sought.
Jankisa
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
Croatia1322 Posts
October 23 2025 15:41 GMT
#17329
On October 22 2025 05:43 Manit0u wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 21 2025 22:02 Jankisa wrote:
I'm beginning to like the Chinese approach, at least their ethnic cleansing is more humane, their repression mechanisms more chill and their approach to territorial expansion more laid back.


What? How does "ethnic cleansing" and "humane" go together?


Well, I get what you are trying to say, neither are humane, but I'd much rather, as a human, be treated the way that China treats Uyghurs then how Israel treats Palestinians.

And not even Palestinians in Gaza, Uyghurs have way better lives and treatment then Palestinians in the West bank.

In a few months or years, I have a feeling that I'd also rather be a Uyghur in a re-education camp then an undocumented immigrant to the USA, soon, if the Venezuela thing happens I don't even want to imagine what Miller has in store for them.

In news relevant to this thread, it seems like the media cycle is once again buying Trump's bullshit, or at least that's how this new "Trump is angry at Putin this time for real" news cycle looks to me.

He enacted sanctions to Rosneft and Lukoil, which, from what I'm seeing so far are very ill defined and no one really knows what will they entail.

So, in the end, I think this will get a news cycle, fizzle out, the oil prices will go up, USA wasn't really doing business with these companies anyway and whatever lower revenues Russia suffers will be offset by the higher oil prices.

Then in a week we'll have another "call between Putin and Trump" and rice and repeat.
So, are you a pessimist? - On my better days. Are you a nihilist? - Not as much as I should be.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain18250 Posts
October 23 2025 18:22 GMT
#17330
On October 24 2025 00:18 xM(Z wrote:
or, it could mean that if taiwan wants/needs EU support, giving in to those EU demands(...) would have taiwans' gov. lose the support of its people and the chinese-taiwanese side could edge-out a win, politically.

This seems like a very odd tangent for the Ukraine thread, so this'll be my only post about it.

If EU's green import rules cause Taiwan to vote democratically for rapprochement with China, then (1) the EU has far more clout than anyone imagined, and it'd be fantastic if they started using that to try to stave off climate change and ecological collapse. And (2) I fail to see how that would be an EU problem, or really even a problem at all. If Taiwan when faced with a choice between marginally reducing their climate impact and Anschluss they choose Anschluss, that seems like a Taiwan problem.
Manit0u
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
Poland17707 Posts
October 23 2025 20:14 GMT
#17331
On October 24 2025 00:41 Jankisa wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 22 2025 05:43 Manit0u wrote:
On October 21 2025 22:02 Jankisa wrote:
I'm beginning to like the Chinese approach, at least their ethnic cleansing is more humane, their repression mechanisms more chill and their approach to territorial expansion more laid back.


What? How does "ethnic cleansing" and "humane" go together?


Well, I get what you are trying to say, neither are humane, but I'd much rather, as a human, be treated the way that China treats Uyghurs then how Israel treats Palestinians.

And not even Palestinians in Gaza, Uyghurs have way better lives and treatment then Palestinians in the West bank.


Do you even know what you're talking about?


The Chinese government has imprisoned more than one million Uyghurs since 2017 and subjected those not detained to intense surveillance, religious restrictions, forced labor, family separations, and forced sterilizations.


Their treatment of Uyghurs has been labeled as crimes against humanity and it's not much different from how Palestinians are being treated.

Might as well vote for Cthulhu, why choose a lesser evil?
Time is precious. Waste it wisely.
Billyboy
Profile Joined September 2024
1607 Posts
October 23 2025 23:22 GMT
#17332
I do not think that comparing things like this does any good and is usually only used to justify awful shit. Like I doubt some kid in China takes any solace that his dad was arrested for a irregular beard or extremist name (two laws actually codified) to a reeducation camp he may never come back from feels better than it is worse in Gaza. And I don't think people in Gaza feel any better that is was worse in Sudan.
Jankisa
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
Croatia1322 Posts
October 24 2025 00:02 GMT
#17333
On October 24 2025 05:14 Manit0u wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 24 2025 00:41 Jankisa wrote:
On October 22 2025 05:43 Manit0u wrote:
On October 21 2025 22:02 Jankisa wrote:
I'm beginning to like the Chinese approach, at least their ethnic cleansing is more humane, their repression mechanisms more chill and their approach to territorial expansion more laid back.


What? How does "ethnic cleansing" and "humane" go together?


Well, I get what you are trying to say, neither are humane, but I'd much rather, as a human, be treated the way that China treats Uyghurs then how Israel treats Palestinians.

And not even Palestinians in Gaza, Uyghurs have way better lives and treatment then Palestinians in the West bank.


Do you even know what you're talking about?

Show nested quote +

The Chinese government has imprisoned more than one million Uyghurs since 2017 and subjected those not detained to intense surveillance, religious restrictions, forced labor, family separations, and forced sterilizations.


Their treatment of Uyghurs has been labeled as crimes against humanity and it's not much different from how Palestinians are being treated.

Might as well vote for Cthulhu, why choose a lesser evil?


It's a very simple proposition. Who would you rather be oppressed by, given current circumstances. Not all crimes against humanity are of the same severity, some are simply worse then others.

We can go over the numbers the other way around, but, to me, I'd much rather be subjected to everything listed then 2 years of relentless bombing in the case of Gaza, outside of that basically almost everything else listed is happening there except forced sterilizations. Add in blockade, famine conditions, 80 % of buildings razed, etc.

I'm in no way shape or form saying Chinese treatment of Uyghurs is anything other then monstrous and shouldn't be condemned, I just said if I had to choose between the two to me the choice would be easy.
So, are you a pessimist? - On my better days. Are you a nihilist? - Not as much as I should be.
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States43804 Posts
October 24 2025 01:25 GMT
#17334
But if Israel won, annexed Gaza, and put the occupants into camps isn’t China what that’d look like? Doesn’t that amount to arguing that Israel hasn’t gone far enough? That Palestinians still have too much independence, too much of a state? That having a state is hurting them because it enables them to engage in conflicts and that losing their freedom to resist would help them because then there’d be no resistance?
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway28781 Posts
October 24 2025 09:12 GMT
#17335
On October 24 2025 09:02 Jankisa wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 24 2025 05:14 Manit0u wrote:
On October 24 2025 00:41 Jankisa wrote:
On October 22 2025 05:43 Manit0u wrote:
On October 21 2025 22:02 Jankisa wrote:
I'm beginning to like the Chinese approach, at least their ethnic cleansing is more humane, their repression mechanisms more chill and their approach to territorial expansion more laid back.


What? How does "ethnic cleansing" and "humane" go together?


Well, I get what you are trying to say, neither are humane, but I'd much rather, as a human, be treated the way that China treats Uyghurs then how Israel treats Palestinians.

And not even Palestinians in Gaza, Uyghurs have way better lives and treatment then Palestinians in the West bank.


Do you even know what you're talking about?


The Chinese government has imprisoned more than one million Uyghurs since 2017 and subjected those not detained to intense surveillance, religious restrictions, forced labor, family separations, and forced sterilizations.


Their treatment of Uyghurs has been labeled as crimes against humanity and it's not much different from how Palestinians are being treated.

Might as well vote for Cthulhu, why choose a lesser evil?


It's a very simple proposition. Who would you rather be oppressed by, given current circumstances. Not all crimes against humanity are of the same severity, some are simply worse then others.

We can go over the numbers the other way around, but, to me, I'd much rather be subjected to everything listed then 2 years of relentless bombing in the case of Gaza, outside of that basically almost everything else listed is happening there except forced sterilizations. Add in blockade, famine conditions, 80 % of buildings razed, etc.

I'm in no way shape or form saying Chinese treatment of Uyghurs is anything other then monstrous and shouldn't be condemned, I just said if I had to choose between the two to me the choice would be easy.


I think the issue is with 'Uyghurs have way better lives and treatment then Palestinians in the West bank.' - not that people in Gaza have had it worse for the past two years. The latter seems pretty obvious, while the former, to me, seems factually incorrect and trivializing how bad the Uyghurs are treated - and disagreeing isn't in any way stating that treatment of palestinians in the west bank is totally fine.
Moderator
Harris1st
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Germany7139 Posts
Last Edited: 2025-10-24 11:23:19
October 24 2025 11:22 GMT
#17336
Maybe use those instead? Not much relevance

https://tl.net/forum/general/592484-the-china-politics-thread

https://tl.net/forum/general/573090-things-arent-peaceful-in-palestine
Go Serral! GG EZ for Ence. Flashbang dance FTW
Jankisa
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
Croatia1322 Posts
October 24 2025 12:17 GMT
#17337
I guess that where we diverge is that you guys seem to be extrapolating this into further hypotheticals.

I thought my statement was pretty clear. At this moment in time, I'd rather be this, rather than that. Maybe I'm in a bubble of my own, but I do stand by my choice. I'd rather be a Uyghur than someone in the West bank.

As Harris1st said, not really the thread for this, if you'd like, we can go to the Palestine thread and rethread the "who has it worse" which was done a few months ago there as well, thinking that I'd rather be one thing than the other, once again, doesn't mean I condone or defend either thing.

In my defense regarding the relevance of all this to this thread, I made this comparison as a reply to a relevant "balance of power" discussion, and who is the Superpower I'd rather be subjected to, and that comment had plenty of other relevant discussion that no one was really interested in engaging on, same with most of my subsequent ones, which contained replies to this line of questioning.
So, are you a pessimist? - On my better days. Are you a nihilist? - Not as much as I should be.
Manit0u
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
Poland17707 Posts
October 24 2025 12:28 GMT
#17338
The Uyhgur/Palestinian situation is not dissimilar. Both are peoples having terrible things done to them and they're virtually powerless to do anything about it.

Back on topic of RU-UA war and to recap some things happening recently:

  • Russia seems to be in a full blown fuel crisis as their refineries and depots are being hit on a daily basis.
  • Russians do not agree to any form of ceasfire and continue their strikes against civilian targets (most recently their drones have hit a kindergarten in Kharkiv)
  • Russias terms for ceasfire were basically "we give you land we don't control yet, you give us heavily fortified land we do not control"
  • During the meeting with Zelensky, Pete Hegseth showed up wearing a tri-clor Russian flag tie

Time is precious. Waste it wisely.
ZeroByte13
Profile Joined March 2022
785 Posts
October 24 2025 12:48 GMT
#17339
On October 24 2025 21:28 Manit0u wrote:
During the meeting with Zelensky, Pete Hegseth showed up wearing a tri-clor Russian flag tie
What a timeline to be alive in...
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany11789 Posts
October 24 2025 13:35 GMT
#17340
On October 24 2025 21:48 ZeroByte13 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 24 2025 21:28 Manit0u wrote:
During the meeting with Zelensky, Pete Hegseth showed up wearing a tri-clor Russian flag tie
What a timeline to be alive in...


These people really have to constantly be the center of all attention. They just can't handle it if anyone pays attention to anyone else for even half a second.
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