EPTRusso-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 765
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Husyelt
United States832 Posts
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Salazarz
Korea (South)2591 Posts
On November 28 2024 13:44 Husyelt wrote: What number to the dollar would the ruble need to fall to for Russia to be legitimately concerned about collapse in certain parts of their economy? Also what is North Korea getting in return for the troops and ammo? Is it mostly money + grain? USD:Lira went from 1:8 to 1:35 in the same time frame that Ruble went from 1:70 to 1:110 so calling for a 'collapse' of their economy seems a little premature. | ||
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Excludos
Norway8088 Posts
On November 28 2024 14:12 Salazarz wrote: USD:Lira went from 1:8 to 1:35 in the same time frame that Ruble went from 1:70 to 1:110 so calling for a 'collapse' of their economy seems a little premature. You know this is easily googleable and verifyable, right? In the last month the USD to Lira have gone from 34.29 to 34.67. It's a drop for sure, but it's not on the same planet of dramatic as 97 to 113 that is the last month of US to Ruble. Most of which is only the last 24h even. But you are right in that this doesn't necessarily mean it's a full on collapse yet. Time will tell when this drop ends. If it ends here, they'll be fine for a while longer. If it continues, the collapse have already started | ||
KwarK
United States42778 Posts
On November 28 2024 13:44 Husyelt wrote: What number to the dollar would the ruble need to fall to for Russia to be legitimately concerned about collapse in certain parts of their economy? Also what is North Korea getting in return for the troops and ammo? Is it mostly money + grain? Nuclear miniaturization, subs, submarine launched ICBMs, rocketry. Soviet Union had a decent tech library, at least by NK standards. For most of NK history even their nominal allies haven’t wanted to help them get that kind of wildcard tech and so have refused. But Kim has Putin over a barrel. | ||
Liquid`Drone
Norway28674 Posts
On November 28 2024 15:26 Excludos wrote: You know this is easily googleable and verifyable, right? In the last month the USD to Lira have gone from 34.29 to 34.67. It's a drop for sure, but it's not on the same planet of dramatic as 97 to 113 that is the last month of US to Ruble. Most of which is only the last 24h even. But you are right in that this doesn't necessarily mean it's a full on collapse yet. Time will tell when this drop ends. If it ends here, they'll be fine for a while longer. If it continues, the collapse have already started Yeah it's googleable and verifyable and what he wrote is correct. USD:Lira went from 1:8 to 1:35 between march 2021 and now, USD:ruble went from 1:70 to 1:110 (well actually 1:75) between march 2021 and now. Tbh I don't know the significance of this in any way but there's no question the Lira has devaluated a lot more than the ruble compared to the dollar over the past 5 years - or even the past 18 months. The past week, no. | ||
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Silvanel
Poland4730 Posts
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Excludos
Norway8088 Posts
On November 28 2024 18:04 Liquid`Drone wrote: Yeah it's googleable and verifyable and what he wrote is correct. USD:Lira went from 1:8 to 1:35 between march 2021 and now, USD:ruble went from 1:70 to 1:110 (well actually 1:75) between march 2021 and now. Tbh I don't know the significance of this in any way but there's no question the Lira has devaluated a lot more than the ruble compared to the dollar over the past 5 years - or even the past 18 months. The past week, no. Well yes, it's unquestionable the Lira is losing value, but I'm not sure why were comparing from march 2021 when the topic at hand is how the value of the Ruble is nosediving right at this very moment. That's on the level of saying there's no global warming because there's barely a difference in a 2 billion year comparison window. | ||
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Billyboy
1056 Posts
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Excludos
Norway8088 Posts
On November 29 2024 02:40 Billyboy wrote: I have no idea how you would measure or check on this, but it is very often in corrupt countries with authoritarians at the helm that infrastructure is barely maintained. My guess is much of Russia is like this with various government officials taking cuts to either look the other way for contractors or just keep the money and not get it done. Then in times of war maintenance understandably takes a back seat. So I'm wondering how many billions is Russia currently behind and how many things are the on verge of failure that will be far more expensive to replace rather then maintain. Then when you think about rates and value of the ruble and much of what they need not being manufactured in Russia it gets you think of this economic timebomb that seems super difficult to predict Well, not quite infrastructure, or strictly because of corruption, but sort of relevant: https://www.railfreight.com/specials/2024/11/04/locomotive-shortage-causes-at-least-93-of-russian-loading-decline/ Apparently out Russia barely has any functioning locomotives left, because sanctions makes it practically impossible for them to acquire some bearings they need to keep them running (Turns out it's one of the things China isn't able to produce properly). So currently, the vast majority of containers are carried by truck, which is both slow and inefficient, not to mention requires labour they don't have because there's also a driver shortage. | ||
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Harris1st
Germany6933 Posts
On November 26 2024 19:38 Gorsameth wrote: Cheaper gas = cheaper energy bills. Something that people feel in their wallet and helps the economy. Its such an easy voter win I can't see it not happening. The potential long term issues if Russia goes bad again are someone else's problem. Oh Germany for sure would be buying cheap gas from Russia I have no doubt. The difference would be (at least I hope so) that they would never be dependant on said gas ever again. | ||
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Sent.
Poland9200 Posts
What's important is remembering to limit the importance of Russian resources. This includes not relying on them so much like Germany did before the war, but also other things like neutralizing Russian attempts to weaponize their gas supply against their Western neighbours. Poland already built their LNG terminal so it's less important here, but there should be some kind of protective umbrella for smaller Baltic countrires or Slovakia and probably also non-EU members like Moldova, Georgia and obviously Ukraine. We can't return to pretending you can separate business and security when Russians are involved. | ||
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Sermokala
United States13956 Posts
I may not like it but yeah capitalism is going to be capitalism. | ||
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Excludos
Norway8088 Posts
And there's one half of a peace deal in place. Now it's just a matter of whether Russia is willing to let Ukraine join NATO, or continue the effort whilst digging their economic hole deeper and deeper. Kwark believes no chance in hell, I think they'll come around once collapse is on the horizon, in maximum 6 months from now. And it really does start and stop with that. Without NATO, Ukraine simply can not agree to any deal. | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5574 Posts
39% of Russians support dropping nukes on Ukraine. Something, something, Putin's war, give peace a chance. | ||
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iFU.spx
Russian Federation370 Posts
On November 30 2024 09:18 maybenexttime wrote: https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2024/11/29/pochti-40-rossiyan-odobrili-yadernii-udar-poukraine-a149151 39% of Russians support dropping nukes on Ukraine. Something, something, Putin's war, give peace a chance. chinese whispers | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5574 Posts
You're pathetic. | ||
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KT_Elwood
Germany966 Posts
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/43117 Good?! | ||
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Sermokala
United States13956 Posts
Russia has had a lot invested in Syria and will need to invest a lot more to salvage their investments after this. Ukraine is also in a situation where they can train whoever and with whatever without anyone really questioning why. Thats valuable to Turkyie and Isreal who are also interested in assads downfall. US is happy to go along with it so much as their proxies don't get screwed over in the end. But all this needed to go down before Trump gets into office and he abandons all the work that was done in the region. | ||
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KT_Elwood
Germany966 Posts
But might be very money-efficient. Since Assad totally relies on russian airstrikes, and this again would bind russian forces there. | ||
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0x64
Finland4560 Posts
One thing that might have been making putin Paranoid has been what happened in Lybia, Syria, Ukraine... He clearly saw a pattern on a list where he imagine himself... Anyway, Syria, with Russia army involvement, with Crimea etc, have been also red flags that have pushed Ukraine to prepare enough against a full-scale invasion. The irony is that by trying to hide who Putin truly was, he only fooled himself and failed with something he could have succeeded few years earlier. Managing to be evil and incompetent, fuflilling the Holliwood stereotype of the evil russian. | ||
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