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On November 26 2024 19:21 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2024 14:47 Husyelt wrote:On November 26 2024 12:37 GreenHorizons wrote:
I suspect in the next year or so when Zelensky has most likely negotiated a negative peace functionally conceding land, Russia is slowly welcomed back into international trade, all while (optimistically speaking) the ~$500+ billion rebuilding contracts are negotiated between Russian and Western oligarchs funded with IMF style loans to Ukrainians that'll eventually get shafted with austerity to pay off the profits of said oligarchs we can revisit your ideas.
Theres no going back from this war in terms of a return to normal relations with Russia, we are going on day 1006 of a full scale war in Europe. Even if Trump manages a "peace plan" for Ukraine, (and lets say its not atrocious), The ties are cut between Russia and Europe. Worst case scenario for everyone would be if Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 represents the Japanese incursions and all out war in 1937 of China. We may have already entered a soft World War 3. I mean literal North Korean troops are now fighting with Russians against Ukraine alone. Wild you think there will be any kind of rebuilding contracts. You have more faith in the EU then I do. If/When this war ends I fully expect Europe to be back sucking on cheap Russian gas within a year.
I know a politician's memory is short, but not that short. Germany knows how much they completely fucked themselves by becoming dependent on Russia. If you said a 20 year period, I'd be more willing to agree.
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On November 26 2024 19:23 Excludos wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2024 19:21 Gorsameth wrote:On November 26 2024 14:47 Husyelt wrote:On November 26 2024 12:37 GreenHorizons wrote:
I suspect in the next year or so when Zelensky has most likely negotiated a negative peace functionally conceding land, Russia is slowly welcomed back into international trade, all while (optimistically speaking) the ~$500+ billion rebuilding contracts are negotiated between Russian and Western oligarchs funded with IMF style loans to Ukrainians that'll eventually get shafted with austerity to pay off the profits of said oligarchs we can revisit your ideas.
Theres no going back from this war in terms of a return to normal relations with Russia, we are going on day 1006 of a full scale war in Europe. Even if Trump manages a "peace plan" for Ukraine, (and lets say its not atrocious), The ties are cut between Russia and Europe. Worst case scenario for everyone would be if Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 represents the Japanese incursions and all out war in 1937 of China. We may have already entered a soft World War 3. I mean literal North Korean troops are now fighting with Russians against Ukraine alone. Wild you think there will be any kind of rebuilding contracts. You have more faith in the EU then I do. If/When this war ends I fully expect Europe to be back sucking on cheap Russian gas within a year. I know a politician's memory is short, but not that short. Germany knows how much they completely fucked themselves by becoming dependent on Russia. If you said a 20 year period, I'd be more willing to agree.
Yes but rebuilding "normal" relation to Russia is a goal for everyone in long term. You can see how well that worked in Europe even if it took a new generation in Germany / Europe to understand we are all friends. The timeframe from Totally destroyed by war to one of the world's strongest economies is kind of mindblowing for Germany.
And it was not made possible by politicians that forgot the past, but by thinking that not building normal relations will lead to a new conflict one day.
The issue with Russia right now, is that it behave more like a World War 1 Germany, than a World War 2 Germany. If it were to be defeated, it would just use the peace to build up their military power.
As they say. History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes.
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On November 26 2024 19:23 Excludos wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2024 19:21 Gorsameth wrote:On November 26 2024 14:47 Husyelt wrote:On November 26 2024 12:37 GreenHorizons wrote:
I suspect in the next year or so when Zelensky has most likely negotiated a negative peace functionally conceding land, Russia is slowly welcomed back into international trade, all while (optimistically speaking) the ~$500+ billion rebuilding contracts are negotiated between Russian and Western oligarchs funded with IMF style loans to Ukrainians that'll eventually get shafted with austerity to pay off the profits of said oligarchs we can revisit your ideas.
Theres no going back from this war in terms of a return to normal relations with Russia, we are going on day 1006 of a full scale war in Europe. Even if Trump manages a "peace plan" for Ukraine, (and lets say its not atrocious), The ties are cut between Russia and Europe. Worst case scenario for everyone would be if Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 represents the Japanese incursions and all out war in 1937 of China. We may have already entered a soft World War 3. I mean literal North Korean troops are now fighting with Russians against Ukraine alone. Wild you think there will be any kind of rebuilding contracts. You have more faith in the EU then I do. If/When this war ends I fully expect Europe to be back sucking on cheap Russian gas within a year. I know a politician's memory is short, but not that short. Germany knows how much they completely fucked themselves by becoming dependent on Russia. If you said a 20 year period, I'd be more willing to agree. Cheaper gas = cheaper energy bills. Something that people feel in their wallet and helps the economy. Its such an easy voter win I can't see it not happening. The potential long term issues if Russia goes bad again are someone else's problem.
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On November 26 2024 19:16 Excludos wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2024 16:32 mounteast02 wrote:From economic point of view, the country of ukraine is cooked. The devastation of the war, reconstruction / rebuilding cost, the money the ukraine government borrowed from the western powers, the lost of properties (land) ownership to foreign entities etc. will make it very difficult for the "post war" (whatever it means) ukraine to survive financially. For comparison, the UK only fully repay the loan they took out during WW2 in 2006. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-American_loanI am no financial expert, but if the ukraine situation have any resemblance to that of the UK in WW2, it is not looking good for ukraine. A report of the land issue in ukraine, although I have no idea how true the report is, but what it described seem to match what is known in similar situation occurred previously. https://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/war-and-theft-takeover-ukraines-agricultural-land Do you believe just because UK only finally repaid their WW2 loan in 2006, that they have been "cooked" since 1945? Yes, Ukraine will have to build up, but that is incredibly unlikely to be an issue. See, building up is a financial opportunity. Westerly countries have been more than willing to support Ukraine in rebuilding their country with loans, trade agreements and even aid. What they're hesitant on is supporting the war, not the rebuild. It's pretty likely Ukraine is going to rebuild themselves much faster than Russia, who will still be facing sanctions even if the war ended tomorrow, and a massive loss of men from an entire generation
The UK was obviously not "cooked" until 2006. But most of Europe was cooked through most of the 50s and in some cases well into the 60s. The Dutch historian society considers the "reconstruction" complete in 1965. That's a 20-year period of recovery. The Netherlands was hit in WW2, but nowhere near as hard as Ukraine has been hit in these two years of war, had the Marshal plan to help them rebuild, and it still took 20 years before it was considered "done". The UK was hit worse with bombing campaigns (but didn't see the urban warfare that Arnhem or Nijmegen did). The UK's post-war rationing of food ended in 1954, 9 years after the end of the war.
It's not fair to say that Europe was cooked until 2006. It is fair to say Europe was cooked for roughly 10-30 years after the war. And that's the western bits of Europe that got aid from the Marshal plan. The countries that fell into Russia's sphere of influence were cooked for far longer, being left to their own devices (ahem, socialist plans) for their recovery, as well as often being more destroyed by the war itself.
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On November 26 2024 19:36 0x64 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2024 19:23 Excludos wrote:On November 26 2024 19:21 Gorsameth wrote:On November 26 2024 14:47 Husyelt wrote:On November 26 2024 12:37 GreenHorizons wrote:
I suspect in the next year or so when Zelensky has most likely negotiated a negative peace functionally conceding land, Russia is slowly welcomed back into international trade, all while (optimistically speaking) the ~$500+ billion rebuilding contracts are negotiated between Russian and Western oligarchs funded with IMF style loans to Ukrainians that'll eventually get shafted with austerity to pay off the profits of said oligarchs we can revisit your ideas.
Theres no going back from this war in terms of a return to normal relations with Russia, we are going on day 1006 of a full scale war in Europe. Even if Trump manages a "peace plan" for Ukraine, (and lets say its not atrocious), The ties are cut between Russia and Europe. Worst case scenario for everyone would be if Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 represents the Japanese incursions and all out war in 1937 of China. We may have already entered a soft World War 3. I mean literal North Korean troops are now fighting with Russians against Ukraine alone. Wild you think there will be any kind of rebuilding contracts. You have more faith in the EU then I do. If/When this war ends I fully expect Europe to be back sucking on cheap Russian gas within a year. I know a politician's memory is short, but not that short. Germany knows how much they completely fucked themselves by becoming dependent on Russia. If you said a 20 year period, I'd be more willing to agree. Yes but rebuilding "normal" relation to Russia is a goal for everyone in long term. You can see how well that worked in Europe even if it took a new generation in Germany / Europe to understand we are all friends. The timeframe from Totally destroyed by war to one of the world's strongest economies is kind of mindblowing for Germany. And it was not made possible by politicians that forgot the past, but by thinking that not building normal relations will lead to a new conflict one day. The issue with Russia right now, is that it behave more like a World War 1 Germany, than a World War 2 Germany. If it were to be defeated, it would just use the peace to build up their military power. As they say. History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes.
Oh absolutely, rebuilding with Russia would be fantastic for Europe, and the world as a whole. We would like nothing more than to not have to worry about an unhinged asshat who goes to war over the drop of a hat. Unfortunately, as you point out, Russia just isn't willing to not be massive assholes at every turn, otherwise the best move would definitively be to move forward with little regard to historic blames.
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On November 26 2024 19:38 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2024 19:23 Excludos wrote:On November 26 2024 19:21 Gorsameth wrote:On November 26 2024 14:47 Husyelt wrote:On November 26 2024 12:37 GreenHorizons wrote:
I suspect in the next year or so when Zelensky has most likely negotiated a negative peace functionally conceding land, Russia is slowly welcomed back into international trade, all while (optimistically speaking) the ~$500+ billion rebuilding contracts are negotiated between Russian and Western oligarchs funded with IMF style loans to Ukrainians that'll eventually get shafted with austerity to pay off the profits of said oligarchs we can revisit your ideas.
Theres no going back from this war in terms of a return to normal relations with Russia, we are going on day 1006 of a full scale war in Europe. Even if Trump manages a "peace plan" for Ukraine, (and lets say its not atrocious), The ties are cut between Russia and Europe. Worst case scenario for everyone would be if Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 represents the Japanese incursions and all out war in 1937 of China. We may have already entered a soft World War 3. I mean literal North Korean troops are now fighting with Russians against Ukraine alone. Wild you think there will be any kind of rebuilding contracts. You have more faith in the EU then I do. If/When this war ends I fully expect Europe to be back sucking on cheap Russian gas within a year. I know a politician's memory is short, but not that short. Germany knows how much they completely fucked themselves by becoming dependent on Russia. If you said a 20 year period, I'd be more willing to agree. Cheaper gas = cheaper energy bills. Something that people feel in their wallet and helps the economy. Its such an easy voter win I can't see it not happening. The potential long term issues if Russia goes bad again are someone else's problem.
I'm not convinced we'll go back to Russian gas so easily. We've already gone through the pain of reducing our reliance. Not to mention the political risk that individual companies will now take into account. In the coming years there'll also be a lot more LNG terminals that start operating and can export gas. The market has reoriented away from Russia. There needs to be a large incentive to go back.
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United States43677 Posts
The WW1 comparison is very apt. WW1 was fought by Germany for expansionist imperial reasons. They were not an unwilling participant pulled in by the alliance system, they did the pulling because the war was part of their foreign policy strategy. Germany was a great power (in a world before superpowers) that felt like it had been denied its rightful position in the world by historical factors and that the existing powers were conspiring to deny its birthright.
After four years of attrition and blockade the combination of economic breakdown, military reversals, and the direct involvement of the United States, made German leadership recognize it was unwinnable. That their position would only get worse and that surrender was required. In November 1918 Germany had huge territorial gains in the east, had defeated the Russian empire, accepted an extremely favourable peace at Brest-Litovsk, and still occupied areas of France and the Low Countries. The war had devastated parts of France, Belgium, the Netherlands etc. but German cities were all intact.
The German surrender left millions of German men with military experience frustrated after having fought, bled, won land, and lost friends for less than nothing. And the underlying question was still unanswered. In 1914 Germany was a dominant European power, larger, more populous, more industrialized, more technologically advanced than its peers. And yet its imperial ambitions were constrained by the preexisting French, Russian, and British empires. In 1919 Germany was essentially still the dominant European power for the same reasons as in 1914. It was nominally defeated, temporarily disarmed, but the disconnect in demographics and industrial output between Germany and France remained. WW2 was not unavoidable but the questions that caused WW1 were unresolved, something that a great many commentators, particularly in France, pointed out.
Rebuilding the German economy to pursue peace through trade and cooperation without resolving any of the underlying issues that caused the war was extremely short sighted.
Let us suppose that Russia loses due to some sort of internal collapse. Putin dies, there is a power struggle, the victor is unwilling to commit to Putin’s war and blames the whole thing on him. I’m not saying that is what is going to happen, just an example narrative in which Russia loses due to internal collapse. We’re left with millions of pissed off Russian veterans, Russia still occupying Ukrainian land on the day of their surrender, Russia still larger and more populous than Ukraine, Russian cities and industry still intact, and Russia still convinced that the very existence of Ukraine is an affront to their Russian birthright.
The only world in which round 2 is avoided is one in which Russian aggression is met with such an overwhelmingly powerful military alliance with clear and actively enforced red lines that they simply cannot do anything. The failures of 1935 must be avoided at all costs.
That said, in the hypothetical scenario I’m describing someone absolutely says “what if we buy Russian gas but allocate 1% of the payments to Ukraine for reconstruction so really Russia is paying for Ukrainian reconstruction by giving natural resources to Ukraine as reparations, everyone wins”.
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United Arab Emirates1 Post
Bot edit.
User was banned for this post.
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United States43677 Posts
Now that the Russian central bank has stopped selling reserves and buying rubles to maintain the value above the 1c mark the value is collapsing. Last week they were trying to hold it to $1 = 103 rubles. By Monday it had slipped to 1/105th of a dollar before being pushed back down. In the last few hours it went back to 105, then 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 102, 113, 114.
You could sell your dollars for rubles, buy government bonds, make a guaranteed 20% return in nominal terms in a year, and then buy back your dollars and it's still not worth it to do so. The Russian government has adopted a policy of literally paying people to hold rubles and despite that the market still doesn't want them.
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Does this mean they will have to do something drastic soon, or can they still keep their current machine going for an unforseen amount of time?
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Don't worry, all the russian people who post here and zeo have repeatedly told us that "the russian economy has never been better, it's outpeforming EU and US"
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On November 27 2024 22:26 KwarK wrote:
Now that the Russian central bank has stopped selling reserves and buying rubles to maintain the value above the 1c mark the value is collapsing. Last week they were trying to hold it to $1 = 103 rubles. By Monday it had slipped to 1/105th of a dollar before being pushed back down. In the last few hours it went back to 105, then 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 102, 113, 114.
You could sell your dollars for rubles, buy government bonds, make a guaranteed 20% return in nominal terms in a year, and then buy back your dollars and it's still not worth it to do so. The Russian government has adopted a policy of literally paying people to hold rubles and despite that the market still doesn't want them.
Am I getting this correctly: They stopped selling to keep the value, and therefore the value is plummeting? How did they not foresee that happening? Anyone with a hint of degree in economics who can tell us what this means and where this is heading?
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United States43677 Posts
On November 27 2024 23:36 Excludos wrote:Show nested quote +On November 27 2024 22:26 KwarK wrote:
Now that the Russian central bank has stopped selling reserves and buying rubles to maintain the value above the 1c mark the value is collapsing. Last week they were trying to hold it to $1 = 103 rubles. By Monday it had slipped to 1/105th of a dollar before being pushed back down. In the last few hours it went back to 105, then 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 102, 113, 114.
You could sell your dollars for rubles, buy government bonds, make a guaranteed 20% return in nominal terms in a year, and then buy back your dollars and it's still not worth it to do so. The Russian government has adopted a policy of literally paying people to hold rubles and despite that the market still doesn't want them. Am I getting this correctly: They stopped selling to keep the value, and therefore the value is plummeting? How did they not foresee that happening? Anyone with a hint of degree in economics who can tell us what this means and where this is heading?
There's only so long you can prop up the overvaluation by paying people more than something is worth before you give up. They kept it below 100 for two years but Ukraine stayed in the fight.
They didn't entirely stop though because they're still paying absurd interest rates which is another way of paying people to hold rubles. They just reduced their attempts to prop it up which was, by itself, enough to cause a collapse.
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It just went back to 111 so maybe not completly stopped. Will be interesting to see how this goes.
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On November 27 2024 23:36 Excludos wrote:Show nested quote +On November 27 2024 22:26 KwarK wrote:
Now that the Russian central bank has stopped selling reserves and buying rubles to maintain the value above the 1c mark the value is collapsing. Last week they were trying to hold it to $1 = 103 rubles. By Monday it had slipped to 1/105th of a dollar before being pushed back down. In the last few hours it went back to 105, then 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 102, 113, 114.
You could sell your dollars for rubles, buy government bonds, make a guaranteed 20% return in nominal terms in a year, and then buy back your dollars and it's still not worth it to do so. The Russian government has adopted a policy of literally paying people to hold rubles and despite that the market still doesn't want them. Am I getting this correctly: They stopped selling to keep the value, and therefore the value is plummeting? How did they not foresee that happening? Anyone with a hint of degree in economics who can tell us what this means and where this is heading?
Supporting a currency has a cost. The benefit of doing so is questionable anyway. A free floating currency is almost always better.
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Well, now the cost of buying foreign goods necessary for their industry (including military) is even higher. It was already very high due to sanctions.
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On November 27 2024 23:03 Uldridge wrote:
Does this mean they will have to do something drastic soon, or can they still keep their current machine going for an unforseen amount of time?
The ruble dropping is only relevant for people trying to buy stuff from outside of Russia. For domestic production and exchange, the outward exchange rate of the currency is not very relevant.
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United States43677 Posts
On November 28 2024 02:21 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On November 27 2024 23:03 Uldridge wrote:
Does this mean they will have to do something drastic soon, or can they still keep their current machine going for an unforseen amount of time? The ruble dropping is only relevant for people trying to buy stuff from outside of Russia. For domestic production and exchange, the outward exchange rate of the currency is not very relevant.
And for people buying things from other people who bought things from outside of Russia. And for anyone deciding where the best market for their goods is.
A chicken isn't going to check the exchange rate before deciding on the rate for her eggs. But lets say that previously the egg wholesale company sold half the eggs to Turkish supermarkets at $1/dozen and the other half to Russian supermarkets at 100 rubles. Then the ruble crashes to 110 rubles to the dollar. Either all those eggs are going to Turkey or the Russians are going to have to pay an additional 10 rubles.
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On November 28 2024 02:21 Simberto wrote:
The ruble dropping is only relevant for people trying to buy stuff from outside of Russia. Which is computers, TVs, phones, other gadgets, cars, appliances, etc.
Russia makes some of the above itself - but usually it's largely from imported parts.
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On November 28 2024 02:18 Silvanel wrote:
Well, now the cost of buying foreign goods necessary for their industry (including military) is even higher. It was already very high due to sanctions.
The central bank bears this cost now. It has to use foreign currency reserves to defend the ruble. It'll create additional inefficiencies because imports are artificially cheap. Better to let the currency free float and subsidise the markets you need to support like the military.
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EPT
