Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 554
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Yurie
11686 Posts
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Excludos
Norway7953 Posts
On August 23 2023 03:03 captainwaffles wrote: My main argument is that NATO has thrown 40k+ bodies into this "counter offensive" and they haven't even reached the first offensive zone. This idea that Ukraine can punch through Russia's defense is absurd, and it's getting people killed, for no reason. Y'all might think I'm the bad guy for being pro Russia, but from the beginning, back in February of last year, I could do basic math and I knew that Russia had more people and more industrial output, and Ukraine never stood a chance. And I knew this would end however and whenever Russia wanted it too. Douglas MacGregor just went on Tucker Carlson's show and said, according to his sources on the ground, that Ukraine has lost 400,000 people in combat since the start of the SMO. And that it was clear that the Minsk accords were just a time buying tactic to give the Ukrainians more time to mount an offensive against Russia. MacGregor goes onto to say that the Russian machine that has been mobilized to defend itself can't be beat by NATO, even if the Americans and co go in on the ground. Which would then necessitate a nuclear response from NATO, which would trigger that scene from Terminator 2 where everyone dies in a nuclear holocaust. So, in short, my argument is that NATO needs to just give up on their aspirations of toppling the Russian government, and that we should live in peace, for the sake of all life on earth. Why do you people keep saying "NATO" is doing this, "NATO" is doing that..? Ukraine is throwing bodies at the counter offensive. I know this is unfathomable for Russians, but Ukraine is an independent country with the ability to make their own decisions. They are fighting for their freedom and the sovereignty of their own country. NATO does not control Ukraine, they are merely supplying them with equipment and training because fuck Russia. This is not a Russia vs NATO war. This is a Russia vs Ukraine war, with NATO supporting on the sidelines. If Russia wins this war, NATO has not lost. If Ukraine wins, NATO did not win it. All honors goes to Ukraine alone | ||
Gorsameth
Netherlands21362 Posts
On August 23 2023 06:35 Excludos wrote: Because great and powerful Russia losing to Ukraine is a soul crushing humiliation. They have to pretend like they are fighting the entirely of NATO, and winning, to save their ego.Why do you people keep saying "NATO" is doing this, "NATO" is doing that..? Ukraine is throwing bodies at the counter offensive. I know this is unfathomable for Russians, but Ukraine is an independent country with the ability to make their own decisions. They are fighting for their freedom and the sovereignty of their own country. NATO does not control Ukraine, they are merely supplying them with equipment and training because fuck Russia. This is not a Russia vs NATO war. This is a Russia vs Ukraine war, with NATO supporting on the sidelines. If Russia wins this war, NATO has not lost. If Ukraine wins, NATO did not win it. All honors goes to Ukraine alone | ||
JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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WombaT
Northern Ireland23825 Posts
On August 23 2023 03:37 maybenexttime wrote: NATO is not even fighting in this offensive, let alone throwing 40k bodies. Several pages ago I posted a video showing that literally every claim made by MacGregor during the first year of the war was utterly wrong. Kyiv was supposed to fall within weeks, Ukrainians were getting into cauldrons across the whole front, Russia was supposed to launch an unstoppable winter offensive, the Ukrainian society was on the brink of collapsing due to Russia's attacks on the infrastructure. None of that was real. Why do you keep posting this crap? MacGregor is invaluable on the betting markets, if they existed. Basically a 100% hit rate, only he’s always completely wrong | ||
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KwarK
United States41984 Posts
People too easily forget that the Red Army moved on American jeeps in WW2. The sheer amount of American and British hardware that went to the USSR in WW2 was unbelievable and Stalin himself repeatedly insisted they would lose without it in his demand letters to the west. After WW2 they lost in Afghanistan. If we go to before WW2 they got fucked in Finland, before that lost to Poland. Before that was WW1 in which they somehow came in last place, losing to Germany which was itself on the losing side of the war. Before that there was their famous beatdown at the hands of Japan which at the time wasn't even on the list of world powers. Then before that the British took them on in Crimea and somehow they lost there despite Crimea being pretty far from Britain. I guess technically they were eventually on the winning side in the Napoleonic Wars but again, same side as the west. This is not an impressive military history. Basically the only reason Russia hasn't lost this war yet is because the people they're fighting are also part of the same historical empire that has never been able to get its shit together. Essentially a clown conflict, as we saw when on day 1 they blitzkrieged without any diesel in their tanks. Any real country would have beaten them by now. The idea that anyone would seriously bet on Russia to win any conflict is as baffling to me as the idea that anyone would want them to. | ||
captainwaffles
United States1050 Posts
So I'll address that. You don't have to trust him at all. I do because I know in the current climate of the US military, people that go against the grain do not become generals. And from my POV, the entire military establishment is corrupt, to the core. So when Douglas says X, Y, or Z, it has my attention. MacGregor isn't the only one saying this though. It's also Scott Ritter, who single handedly delayed the US invasion of Iraq for 5 years because he refused to lie on behalf of the CIA. It's also Brian Berletic (bald white dude from the last video I posted, aka The New Atlas, also former marines, became disillusioned with the military and US society in general after Iraq and moved to Thailand where he has been ever since, he started writing in the early 2010's under the pen name "Tony Cartalucci" and I've been following his work since 2019, before he revealed his identity a year later). It's also Mark Sleboda who is former US Navy, who currently lives in Russia. Most of my go to sources for information about this war are former US military members, from every branch, even "civilian" branches like the CIA, enter Ray McGovern. People in the military right now can't speak out without risking their livelihood, so naysayers necessarily have to be ex-military. I'm not a military person, but when it comes to matters of war, I know they're the most knowledgeable people, so I defer to their expertise. And they all say similar things about the state of NATO, and the state of the US military, basically, it's a paper tiger, and it can't fight a ground war in Europe. So by all means, continue to believe people currently employed by Western militaries who have stock in Raytheon or Boeing and are called on by the media to give their takes about why we need to dump more money into their coffers, but I think I have explained why I do not, and will not, adequately. | ||
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KwarK
United States41984 Posts
On August 23 2023 08:09 captainwaffles wrote: It's also Scott Ritter, who single handedly delayed the US invasion of Iraq for 5 years because he refused to lie on behalf of the CIA. That’s not how I’d introduce Scott Ritter. Personally I’d introduce him as the convicted child sex predator who is best known on the internet for this video. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JCR-Phtgx0k In the interview, filmed Nov 4 2022, he asserts all the same Ukraine is hopelessly doomed stuff that he’s been saying the entire time (because he’s a Russian asset) but he also makes the hilarious assertion that Ukraine needs to accept that it has lost, that Kherson and other cities are now Russian cities and will always be Russian cities, and surrender. It needs to accept that there is a 0% chance it will ever retake those cities and that if it wishes to even survive as a state at all it needs to throw itself on Putin’s mercy, beg for forgiveness, and cede a bunch of oblasts to Russia. The video was published on Nov 15. In the 11 days between filming and uploading the Russians surrendered everything west of the Dneiper including the city of Kherson. He iplosded it anyway. It was routinely mocked in all circles at the time. The moron literally uploaded a video in which he staked his entire reputation on the idea that Ukraine could never retake Kherson after Ukraine had already retaken Kherson. | ||
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KwarK
United States41984 Posts
If I’d done that I’d resign as a YouTube military analyst because the universe was clearly trying to let me know that it wasn’t my strong suit. But he’s kept going with the exact same predictions and somehow his audience just doesn’t care that he’s clearly clueless. He didn’t even edit the video, just put it out there as an alternate reality for his audience. He was still claiming the impossibility of events after they’d already happened. | ||
Sermokala
United States13738 Posts
I mean I'm glad you're willing to admit that you only find him credible because he says west bad but you could at least attempt to come up with some reason for it. I just find it amazing that these people come in and then tear apart their own credibility and why we shouldn't listen to them, then make insane statements like "us is a paper tiger and can't fight a land war in Europe" my brother in Christ that's what the polish and Baltic are for we just win the air wars. | ||
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hexhaven
Finland916 Posts
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Salazarz
Korea (South)2590 Posts
On August 23 2023 07:34 KwarK wrote: When was the last time Russia even won a war without western industry backing them up? People too easily forget that the Red Army moved on American jeeps in WW2. The sheer amount of American and British hardware that went to the USSR in WW2 was unbelievable and Stalin himself repeatedly insisted they would lose without it in his demand letters to the west. After WW2 they lost in Afghanistan. If we go to before WW2 they got fucked in Finland, before that lost to Poland. Before that was WW1 in which they somehow came in last place, losing to Germany which was itself on the losing side of the war. Before that there was their famous beatdown at the hands of Japan which at the time wasn't even on the list of world powers. Then before that the British took them on in Crimea and somehow they lost there despite Crimea being pretty far from Britain. I guess technically they were eventually on the winning side in the Napoleonic Wars but again, same side as the west. This is not an impressive military history. Basically the only reason Russia hasn't lost this war yet is because the people they're fighting are also part of the same historical empire that has never been able to get its shit together. Essentially a clown conflict, as we saw when on day 1 they blitzkrieged without any diesel in their tanks. Any real country would have beaten them by now. The idea that anyone would seriously bet on Russia to win any conflict is as baffling to me as the idea that anyone would want them to. Even by your standards, this is a pretty poor post. Lend-lease to USSR played a significant role in WW2 without a doubt, sure, but that doesn't really take anything away from an absolutely monumental effort of the Soviets in that war. Talking about whether USSR could or couldn't beat back Germany on their own back then is just as idiotic as the guys who go '1v1 me bro, or u too pussy?!?!' after a DotA match, it's just completely pointless conjecture. Afghanistan is, well, Afghanistan. Everybody loses there. There was also Syria where you can disagree all you want with methods but without question Russians were by far more successful than the Western coalition forces. Bunch of other local conflicts as well but those aren't particularly interesting, sure enough. Going to before WW2, the Soviets might have 'gotten fucked' in Finland, but they did win the Winter War. The war against Poland was a long back and forth which ended inconclusively, with neither side really winning (also, Poland was receiving large amounts of foreign support throughout the war so by your own standards, that 'doesnt count' or what?). The Russo-Japanese war in 1904-1905 was a disaster for Russians, but they did beat the Japanese handily multiple times in the run up to WW2. The war in Crimea they faced a rather large coalition and not just 'the British who were quite far away from Crimea' but I'm sure you're aware of that, you're just twisting the facts to paint your narrative as you always do. After all, if you were trying to be objective and impartial you'd mention the following Russo-Turkish war which Russia has won handily. And of course your comment about the Napoleonic wars is very telling as well. Napoleon's defeat in Russia had absolutely nothing to do with 'Russia being on the same side as the West.' But again, objectivity is obviously not your strong suit when it comes to Russian history. I mean, claiming that 'any real country' would have beaten Russia by now in this ongoing war is insulting as fuck in its own right, not to Russia -- because god knows they deserve to be insulted over their idiotic invasion -- but to Ukraine, who by all accounts have performed way above any expectations. The idea that the only reason Russia hasn't conquered Ukraine is because they are inept and terrible at everything is asinine. There has never been a war of such scale using the sort of hardware that is involved here, and vast majority of the world's countries are completely incapable of waging such a war. The US could, China and India maybe, although they'd definitely face same issues with organization and logistics as Russia did at the start. Other than that, what nation could realistically deploy and maintain a million-strong army right now, with the intensity that we've seen in Ukraine? | ||
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KwarK
United States41984 Posts
On August 23 2023 09:21 Salazarz wrote: Even by your standards, this is a pretty poor post. Lend-lease to USSR played a significant role in WW2 without a doubt, sure, but that doesn't really take anything away from an absolutely monumental effort of the Soviets in that war. Talking about whether USSR could or couldn't beat back Germany on their own back then is just as idiotic as the guys who go '1v1 me bro, or u too pussy?!?!' after a DotA match, it's just completely pointless conjecture. Afghanistan is, well, Afghanistan. Everybody loses there. There was also Syria where you can disagree all you want with methods but without question Russians were by far more successful than the Western coalition forces. Bunch of other local conflicts as well but those aren't particularly interesting, sure enough. Going to before WW2, the Soviets might have 'gotten fucked' in Finland, but they did win the Winter War. The war against Poland was a long back and forth which ended inconclusively, with neither side really winning (also, Poland was receiving large amounts of foreign support throughout the war so by your own standards, that 'doesnt count' or what?). The Russo-Japanese war in 1904-1905 was a disaster for Russians, but they did beat the Japanese handily multiple times in the run up to WW2. The war in Crimea they faced a rather large coalition and not just 'the British who were quite far away from Crimea' but I'm sure you're aware of that, you're just twisting the facts to paint your narrative as you always do. After all, if you were trying to be objective and impartial you'd mention the following Russo-Turkish war which Russia has won handily. And of course your comment about the Napoleonic wars is very telling as well. Napoleon's defeat in Russia had absolutely nothing to do with 'Russia being on the same side as the West.' But again, objectivity is obviously not your strong suit when it comes to Russian history. I mean, claiming that 'any real country' would have beaten Russia by now in this ongoing war is insulting as fuck in its own right, not to Russia -- because god knows they deserve to be insulted over their idiotic invasion -- but to Ukraine, who by all accounts have performed way above any expectations. The idea that the only reason Russia hasn't conquered Ukraine is because they are inept and terrible at everything is asinine. There has never been a war of such scale using the sort of hardware that is involved here, and vast majority of the world's countries are completely incapable of waging such a war. The US could, China and India maybe, although they'd definitely face same issues with organization and logistics as Russia did at the start. Other than that, what nation could realistically deploy and maintain a million-strong army right now, with the intensity that we've seen in Ukraine? The reason that most other countries also couldn’t conquer Ukraine today is that most other countries have no plan to do so and so didn’t invest in building an army capable of doing so. They’re not trying to conquer Ukraine. But if they wanted to and knew 8 years ahead of time that they were going to make the attempt the list of western countries that couldn’t conquer Ukraine is pretty small. Germany, Poland, France, Britain, Italy, Turkey etc. all could if they invested in creating that capability. Not least because all of them have sufficient soft power and diplomacy that they wouldn’t face an international coalition arming Ukraine. Whereas what we’re seeing with Russia is that they planned this war, they prepared for this war, they invested in creating the capability, they chose to start it, and it’s a clown car. Sure, the west is aiding Ukraine. Maybe don’t launch chemical weapons attacks killing British citizens in British cities right before you need Britain to stand by. That, like the rest of it, was Russia’s choice. Russia just isn’t good at this. Their entire reputation is built on WW2 when they were a much larger empire that avoided half the world war by staying neutral in the entire Asian theatre. They participated only in the 4v1 on Germany and even then they had to beg for help throughout (after starting the war on the same side as Germany). They’re fucking clowns and should be treated as such. In retrospect the entire Cold War is a bad joke. The idea that they’d cross the Rhine in 3 days was predicated on the assumption that they could reliably put fuel in a tank. | ||
Salazarz
Korea (South)2590 Posts
On August 23 2023 09:32 KwarK wrote: The reason that most other countries also couldn’t conquer Ukraine today is that most other countries have no plan to do so and so didn’t invest in building an army capable of doing so. They’re not trying to conquer Ukraine. But if they wanted to and knew 8 years ahead of time that they were going to make the attempt the list of western countries that couldn’t conquer Ukraine is pretty small. Germany, Poland, France, Britain, Italy, Turkey etc. all could if they invested in creating that capability. Not least because all of them have sufficient soft power and diplomacy that they wouldn’t face an international coalition arming Ukraine. Whereas what we’re seeing with Russia is that they planned this war, they prepared for this war, they invested in creating the capability, they chose to start it, and it’s a clown car. Sure, the west is aiding Ukraine. Maybe don’t launch chemical weapons attacks killing British citizens in British cities right before you need Britain to stand by. That, like the rest of it, was Russia’s choice. Russia just isn’t good at this. Their entire reputation is built on WW2 when they were a much larger empire that avoided half the world war by staying neutral in the entire Asian theatre. They participated only in the 4v1 on Germany and even then they had to beg for help throughout (after starting the war on the same side as Germany). They’re fucking clowns and should be treated as such. In retrospect the entire Cold War is a bad joke. The idea that they’d cross the Rhine in 3 days was predicated on the assumption that they could reliably put fuel in a tank. Right, so we're not discussing which actual countries that exist in the real world, with real budgets and real militaries would be able to wage large scale war effectively; we're discussing the hypotheticals of which countries totally could if they wanted to in whatever make-believe scenarios? Because I'm not particularly interested in debating which countries could totally build up the industry and logistics necessary to supply a million-strong army, as well as actually calling up a million+ people to fight in an offensive war 'if they wanted to', I feel like that's a pretty futile conversation to have. Also, soft power and diplomacy? You're trying to tell me that if Poland or Turkey decided to invade Ukraine for a land grab tomorrow, they would not face an international coalition arming Ukraine? That's a pretty lukewarm take right there. And it's not as if Russia was actually 'building up to this war for 8 years', either. They were largely coasting on their existing supplies and budgets. Their military expenditures have not significantly increased over the past 10 years. They have massively overestimated their existing capabilities, no question about that. Had they actually spent the years before ensuring their shit is adequately supplied and bringing up their troop numbers to a number more capable of actually waging an offensive campaign over territories as big as Ukraine is, the outcome of their initial blitz might have been different -- although then again, Ukraine would have likely spotted those preparations and made adjustments of their own so again that's kind of a silly conversation to have. The most clowny part of this war isn't that Russia's current military is so laughably terrible, it's the ridiculous blunders and miscalculations of their initial invasion. Also, 4v1 on Germany? By the time Germany attacked Soviet Union, they had complete control over majority of Europe, having captured massive swaths of industry, supplies, and equipment along the way. Last I checked, they were also supported by Romania, Italy and, to a lesser extent, a handful of other nations. Meanwhile the Western allies have not been a significant presence in the war in Europe until the outcome has already been decided. After Barbarossa failed to achieve its objectives, Germany had lost much of its initial momentum, and after losing the battle of Stalingrad, they have pretty much lost the war. At that point in time, the Allies haven't even landed in Sicily yet. Besides, what does it matter whether it was '4v1' or '1v1' or what? It's an indisputable fact that Soviets have fought against what was at the time considered the most powerful army in the world, and defeated it; it's ridiculous to claim otherwise. I mean, I get that you don't like Russians, and that's a pretty reasonable position to hold given the current events -- but misrepresenting history just to support today's narratives is pretty disgusting and needs to be called out, no matter which side is doing it. | ||
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KwarK
United States41984 Posts
Within the context of your hypothetical of another nation trying it is necessary to give them the same amount of preparation as Russia had. Otherwise, accepting your objection as valid, you must conclude that the US would have done far worse than Russia because in February 2022 Russia had a hundred thousand men on the border whereas the US had none. Therefore Russia is much stronger than the US. That would be nonsense but it’s your nonsense. Either own it or concede that within your hypothetical we must allow other countries the same preparation. And therefore concede my point, most other nations would have planned better and performed better. Russia is a clown car. I’m also a little confused by your defence of them which could be best summed up as “they’re not incompetent, they just completely failed in their strategy, planning, and execution”. That seems like trying to agree with me by stealth. If the military is good, except when you try to use it, then it breaks down, it’s not good. | ||
Salazarz
Korea (South)2590 Posts
As far as 'counter factual history' goes, I think Russians 'losing' the Winter War or 'not really doing anything except ganging up on Germany 4v1 in WW2' is pretty hard to top tbh. I’m also a little confused by your defence of them which could be best summed up as “they’re not incompetent, they just completely failed in their strategy, planning, and execution”. That seems like trying to agree with me by stealth. If the military is good, except when you try to use it, then it breaks down, it’s not good. They failed in their initial attempt to rush Kyiv. They're now fighting a near-peer conflict with rather similar numbers on both sides, against supposedly highly superior Western arms and intelligence. Surely if they were as bad at this whole war thing as you claim, they would have lost already? After all, according to Western military experts, Ukrainians are fighting very efficiently. So why haven't these drunkard idiot Russians who have no diesel in their tanks fucked off to Moscow yet? | ||
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KwarK
United States41984 Posts
When I shit on the Russian Empire’s military history that applies to both sides here. They’re both former Russian Empire. The fact that it’s a stalemate right now doesn’t imply that a mighty Russian military is successfully resisting the military superpower that is Ukraine, it implies that both of them have gotten stuck in the same swamp. | ||
RvB
Netherlands6191 Posts
On August 23 2023 07:34 KwarK wrote: When was the last time Russia even won a war without western industry backing them up? People too easily forget that the Red Army moved on American jeeps in WW2. The sheer amount of American and British hardware that went to the USSR in WW2 was unbelievable and Stalin himself repeatedly insisted they would lose without it in his demand letters to the west. After WW2 they lost in Afghanistan. If we go to before WW2 they got fucked in Finland, before that lost to Poland. Before that was WW1 in which they somehow came in last place, losing to Germany which was itself on the losing side of the war. Before that there was their famous beatdown at the hands of Japan which at the time wasn't even on the list of world powers. Then before that the British took them on in Crimea and somehow they lost there despite Crimea being pretty far from Britain. I guess technically they were eventually on the winning side in the Napoleonic Wars but again, same side as the west. This is not an impressive military history. Basically the only reason Russia hasn't lost this war yet is because the people they're fighting are also part of the same historical empire that has never been able to get its shit together. Essentially a clown conflict, as we saw when on day 1 they blitzkrieged without any diesel in their tanks. Any real country would have beaten them by now. The idea that anyone would seriously bet on Russia to win any conflict is as baffling to me as the idea that anyone would want them to. Lend lease mostly shortened the war. The deciding moments were in 1941 and 1942 before it really got going. The red army performance is seriously underestimated in the west. | ||
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KwarK
United States41984 Posts
On August 23 2023 14:39 RvB wrote: Lend lease mostly shortened the war. The deciding moments were in 1941 and 1942 before it really got going. The red army performance is seriously underestimated in the west. Stalin wrote a lot of telegrams to the British in 1941 saying, and I’m paraphrasing loosely here, “we’re going to lose unless you deliver the following materials to us immediately” and the British were pretty good about delivering his shopping lists. Think of it like the javelins in February 2022. It’s not as big as the subsequent aid but a small amount of what you need when you need it makes a big difference. | ||
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