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On August 15 2023 00:54 0x64 wrote: How about the hundred of thousand of men who left the country?
So for you, at the same time, they are close to collapse and lose the war, and partying because the war does not impact them.
Just because the Bucha massacre happened in the past, does not mean it doesn't count anymore.
You have a very selective argumentation that does not hold up, it is almost like you are being stupid on purpose. Not because you are pro-russia, but because you chose deliberately to not care about the integrity and logic of your arguments.
When you get upset and run out of arguments, you cry "Straw man, Straw man", or something else magical that you need to find because how could you admit to yourself that you are defending war crimes?
Apparently, he's internalized all of that while writing the previous answer, isn't that obvious? Like, do you think we in our information bubble never heard of such big things...
On a different ocasion - may be you'll like this one: The song has all kinds of anti-government statements, although wrapped up a bit, - but it is even better than Little Big, who are too naive to my taste. This ATL guy is one of my favorites, and he actually had performed this particular song in a concert in SpB in June 2023.
On August 15 2023 00:54 0x64 wrote: How about the hundred of thousand of men who left the country?
So for you, at the same time, they are close to collapse and lose the war, and partying because the war does not impact them.
Just because the Bucha massacre happened in the past, does not mean it doesn't count anymore.
You have a very selective argumentation that does not hold up, it is almost like you are being stupid on purpose. Not because you are pro-russia, but because you chose deliberately to not care about the integrity and logic of your arguments.
When you get upset and run out of arguments, you cry "Straw man, Straw man", or something else magical that you need to find because how could you admit to yourself that you are defending war crimes?
Apparently, he's internalized all of that while writing the previous answer, isn't that obvious? Like, do you think we in our information bubble never heard of such big things?
On a different ocasion - may be you'll like this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ADM6x4-5rk The song has all kinds of anti-government statements, although wrapped up a bit, - but it is even better than Little Big, since they are too naive in my taste. This ATL guy is one of my favorites, and he actually had performed this particular song in a concert in SpB in June 2023.
I don't put you in the same category as Zeo. Thanks for the music link.
On August 14 2023 15:44 zatic wrote: Does someone have a good explanation why the ruble is falling now? I somewhat understood the explanations of the swings from last year but now I am a bit at a loss. Is the Russian central bank just out of ammunition?
They spent more on military in the fist half of the year than what was planned for the entire year. That's in the context of falling export revenue, and forcing exporters to trade their euros and dollars for roubles was the main mechanism that kept the rouble afloat.
There's some figures in the Reuters article below, which funnily enough I came across because tankies were using it at the start of the month to brag about Russia's war chest:
I get that but where is this movement coming from ties into how are they measuring this movement? With a lack of foreign exchange activity how reliable is this? It seems insane that the Regime would allow this to be out in the public when they have such control over any numbers that come out right now.
You guys shouldn't poke the Russians too much on what they say. In their country if they're found out going against the official story or critizing the war they would go to jail.
US Dollar was at ~101 rubles and then 97 just hours after news about urgent Central Bank meeting. I.e. 4% change. When it's that volatile I'm not sure it's easy to tell what will it be in a week or a month or a year. But even if it will get stronger (or weaker) - does it actually mean much for the conflict?
On August 15 2023 05:00 ZeroByte13 wrote: US Dollar was at ~101 rubles and then 97 just hours after news about urgent Central Bank meeting. I.e. 4% change. When it's that volatile I'm not sure it's easy to tell what will it be in a week or a month or a year. But even if it will get stronger (or weaker) - does it actually mean much for the conflict?
It means a lot if the sanctions are showing the kind of damage people were expecting from the West. If the price of the war is becoming exponentially greater putin is going to be asked more and more questions about if the war is worth it. If putin can be convinced that continuing the war isn't worth it than legitimate peace talks can begin.
War economies have a way of going on just fine for long stretches of time before utterly collapsing. The last thing a dictator wants is people to think the collapse is soon.
Legitimate peace talks aren't likely to happen since Russia want's to keep their land corridor and Ukraine can still fight for another 5+ years so neither side will budge on that unless defeated millitarily
On August 15 2023 06:09 Sermokala wrote: If putin can be convinced that continuing the war isn't worth it than legitimate peace talks can begin.
Somehow I don't think so, I doubt that ruble being 90 or 100 or 110 per dollar will affect the conflict in a meaningful way.
In the late 2014 ruble dropped from 1:35 to 1:70 in 3-4 months and it didn't mean a big drop in VVP's support. And while the war can add addinitional pressure - it might also lessen it because "it's all because of our enemies, see what they do to you despite our best efforts?" i.e. an easy explanation.
Of course, this is not without a limit, and if it reaches 150+ rubles per US dollar - this will become very uncomfortable psychologically and there will be more and more questions why Russian finanical institutes can't stabilize it.
On August 15 2023 06:54 sertas wrote: Legitimate peace talks aren't likely to happen since Russia want's to keep their land corridor and Ukraine can still fight for another 5+ years so neither side will budge on that unless defeated millitarily
Yeah that's what I'm saying though. What this slide in the ruble and the massive increase in spending shows is that there is mounting damage to the Russian economy. Maybe not critical damage and the war economy can go on but it's not disposable by anyone that Russia will do another wave of mobilization. It does them regularly normally but the difference is that they can't send unmobilized conscripts back like their economy has become used to over the years past. They don't have the industrial output to sustain losses like the west can supply Ukraine.
Because in the end this was and is still sold to the Russian people as a special military operation they're not even trying that hard to win. For Ukraine it's the existential hell war that will define them as a people
Also remember how right after it started ruble dropped to 1:140, but then it got stronger - and actually stronger that in previous 5-6 years. So it used to be 70, then 140 for a week, then 50-60 for quite some time, now 100. So in the mind of many right now it might feel like - who's to say it won't be 70 again in a few months?
If it will keep rising rapidly and instead of 70-80 it will get to 130-140 by Christmas - then it will start affect morale quite a bit, I'd guess.
On August 15 2023 08:00 ZeroByte13 wrote: Also remember how right after it started ruble dropped to 1:140, but then it got stronger - and actually stronger that in previous 5-6 years. So it used to be 70, then 140 for a week, then 50-60 for quite some time, now 100. So in the mind of many right now it might feel like - who's to say it won't be 70 again in a few months?
If it will keep rising rapidly and instead of 70-80 it will get to 130-140 by Christmas - then it will start affect morale quite a bit, I'd guess.
Sure, they could feel that way. But that was driven by extremely high hydrocarbon export prices. That massively inflates the demand for rubles. Now maybe we’ll get another OPEC cut or something but for now we have stable supply and price caps. There’s not much else in the way of Russian exports that can make up for the gap in the balance of trade left by hydrocarbons.
On August 15 2023 08:24 KwarK wrote: Sure, they could feel that way. But that was driven by extremely high hydrocarbon export prices. That massively inflates the demand for rubles.
Sure, all I wanted to say is that 1:100 is not low enough in my opinion for any real pressure from population. I think it will take something like 130+ (in next 3-5 months) for that.
It was all but inevitable that the Russian garrison in occupied Urozhaine would fall. Advancing in a pulse of rapid assaults since early June, a powerful division-size Ukrainian force—including all four Ukrainian marine corps brigades—had flanked Urozhaine, a tiny settlement with a few hundred structures arrayed along three parallel north-south roads in southern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast.
By advancing east and west of Urozhaine, a key Russian strongpoint in a chain of them leading south toward occupied Mariupol, 50 miles away on the Black Sea coast, the Ukrainians left the increasingly desperate Russian garrison—including elements of the 37th Motor Rifle Brigade—just one way out of Urozhaine: the T0518 road, threading south into neighboring Zavitne Bazhannya and Staromlynivka.
“The recapture of neighboring Urozhaine was only a matter of time,” the independent Conflict Intelligence Team wrote. And when the depleted Russian garrison fully or partially retreated on Saturday or Sunday, it did so on foot and in broad daylight along the open road and the fields abutting it.
Ukrainian drones watched from overhead. And Ukrainian artillery batteries took aim. What followed was a bloodbath.
A pair of drone videos that the Ukrainian defense ministry released on Sunday depicts scores of Russians hustling along the road. In the first video, a high-explosive artillery shell explodes, blowing soldiers to the ground. In the second video, the Ukrainian gunners use dual-purpose improved conventional munitions—cluster shells—to pepper the Russians’ escape route.
Russian forces have been using cluster munitions since the beginning of their wider war on Ukraine starting in February 2022. Ukrainian forces got Turkish cluster shells in late 2022 and, this spring, also got American-made M483A1 DPICM rounds for their NATO-style 155-millimeter howitzers.
A 103-pound M483A1 round pops open and expels its submunitions—each “capable of penetrating more than 2.5 inches of rolled homogeneous armor [or] incapacitating personnel,” according to a U.S. Army field manual—over an area that varies according to the round’s altitude at the moment of expulsion, but could be as wide as a football field.
The American DPICM rounds are dangerous to armored vehicles. Against unprotected infantry, they’re murder. It’s unclear how many Russians died in Urozhaine, and on the road out of Urozhaine. Scores? Hundreds? Either way, there’s a good chance that, as of today, the only live Russians in Urozhaine are prisoners of Ukraine.
Not everyone agrees this is the case. While some observers on both sides of the war believe the Ukrainians have liberated Urozhaine, the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C. urged caution. “ISW has not observed confirmation that Russian forces have completely withdrawn from Urozhaine and Russian forces likely currently maintain positions in at least the southern part of the settlement,” the think tank wrote on Sunday.
Whether or not a few Russians still cling to positions in southern Urozhaine, the imminent outcome of the fight for the town isn’t in dispute. And the Russians already are trying to assign blame. “The Russian information space is seizing on Ukrainian gains in Urozhaine ... to highlight poor Russian morale and command challenges in the area,” ISW noted.
One Russian blogger blamed the 37th Motor Rifle Brigade for failing to send tanks to support the infantry. Brigade troopers also were drunk, the blogger claimed. Another blogger faulted the Kremlin for removing the commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army, which oversees many of the brigades and regiments in southern Ukraine.
For the Russian dead in and around Urozhaine, it no longer matters who’s at fault. And the 37th MRB, the 58th CAA and the Kremlin soon will get another chance to prove they can hold a defensive position. Once the Ukrainians liberate Urozhaine—assuming they haven’t already done so—they inevitably will shift their sights to Zavitne Bazhannya and Staromlynivka. The next strongpoints on the road to Mariupol.
RFK JR's recent talk with Tucker Carlson had some interesting bits about biolabs in Ukraine:
On the topic of Ukraine
(12 minutes in), Kennedy says Americans are being lied to, and were sold on a "comic book pitch, which we see in every war. There's a bad guy who's like, you know, unspeakably evil, who's planning world conquest or a terrorist attack on America. And we have to be the good guys and go in and stop it."
Kennedy then explained that "a group of people who are known as Neocons, since 2001, have been talking about putting NATO in Ukraine. Now, I'll give you some background. In 1992 the walls came down and the Soviet Union collapsed. Gorbichev went to Tony Blair and President Bush and said 'I'm going to withdraw 400,000 Soviet troops from East Germany. I'm going to allow you to reunify Germany under NATO troops - so you're gonna move NATO troops, a hostile force, into our barracks and our bases - and the only commitment I want from you, is that once I allow Germany top become part of NATO, that you will never move NATO further to the East.'"
"James Baker, who was the Secretary of State at that time, famously said: 'we promise that we will not move NATO one inch to the East.'"
"Then, in 1996, 1997, five years later, Zbigniew Brzezinski ... says 'ok, we should start moving NATO to all the former (USSR) satellite states.'"
US Biolabs in Ukraine
At around 35 minutes into the interview, Carlson and Kennedy begin discussing the US bioweapons program. Meanwhile back home, RFK Jr. said that there are "36,000 'death scientists' who are now employed full time in developing microbes that can be used to kill people."
🚨BOMBSHELL: @TuckerCarlson asked @RobertKennedyJr about the shadowy biolabs in Ukraine. RFK's jaw-dropping answer, if proven true, could shake the very foundations of trust and demands unparalleled consequences for both Anthony Fauci and Ralph Baric.
RFK: "Anthony Fauci got all the responsibility for bio-weapons development. [...] In 2014, 300 scientists wrote to President Obama and said 'you've gotta shut down Anthony Fauci, because he is going to create a microbe that will cause a global pandemic.' And so Obama signed a moratorium and shut down the 18 worst of Anthony Fauci's experiments, where most of them were taking place in North Carolina by a scientist called Ralph Baric (@Baric_Lab ).
Instead of obeying that law, Anthony Fauci shifted lots of his operations offshore. And those operations ended up mostly in Wuhan Lab, which is a military lab [...] and many of them went to Ukraine."
Where is the outcry from the mainstream media? New York Times, Washington Post - anyone?
George W. Bush and Dick Cheney put Fauci in charge of the US bioweapons program.
Dr. Peter Daszak, Dr. Ralph Baric, and Dr. Anthony Fauci should never have transferred their coronavirus research to Dr. Shi Zhengli at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
Care to name one of the 300 scientists who signed their name to an open letter to Obama condemning Fauci? Shouldn’t be that hard. The whole point of a bunch of known people signing these open letters is that they want their reputation associated with the message to strengthen it. With 300 of them it should be easy to name at least 1.
June 16, 2023 SOZT The White Hats know that to end the war in the Ukraine they must stop the money laundering in Kiev. We have stated that funds promised by the Biden Administration in fact do not flow, as this is a sting op run by the Junta to arrest those who rush to collect the funds in Kiev. But the Biden Administration promises give the impression that Kiev is funded, and thus others around the world participate. Bribery everywhere, and the Ukraine conflict is endless, supporting bio labs, organ harvesting, child torture and Adrenochrome collection, drug running, and weapons selling.
As is known, the Rothschild banking system is bankrupt and without substance as it is not Gold backed. They print money freely but as their fiat is virtually worthless and without backing, it is refused for trade. Pending is a collapse of the US Federal Reserve, defaulting on all debts so the National Debt to be paid to the Rothschild banks is vaporized, and the banking system in the US reorganized so that all former debts paid by interest are likewise forgiven. The reorganization is expected to occur under the reinstated President Trump.
But those impatient with the pace of change in the Ukraine want to expedite the fall of Kiev. Since the western banking system uses the SWIFT system, this is a clear target. For the past week, even before the stern and clear message issued by Anonymous hackers, the US and Europe have had downtime problems. This is only a hint of what is to come. The outcome is in human hands, as NATO and the Satanists who want Kiev to continue their operation may or may not capitulate, and the Junta and White Hats likewise may move in many directions. EOZT
On August 15 2023 06:54 sertas wrote: Legitimate peace talks aren't likely to happen since Russia want's to keep their land corridor and Ukraine can still fight for another 5+ years so neither side will budge on that unless defeated millitarily
Ukraine certainly cannot fight multiple years if western support diminishes over time. That's why they are so afraid of 'peace talks' - it's just a pretense to start freezing the conflict.
As things stand Russia withstood all soft-power pressure and militarily Crimea remains unthreatened. This allows them to push for an ambiguous, unenforceable cease-fire which they can turn semi-permanent. That means they will not only keep all held territory but also reinvade whenever next opportunity present itself. Effectively Russia winning the peace and 'salami-slicing' Ukraine in the coming decades.
EPT
