NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
On August 04 2023 22:33 2Pacalypse- wrote: @Ardias @zeo, would you guys say this video is an accurate representation of the current situation on the frontlines from your guys perspectives?
It's interesting, if everything here is true, that this could be interpreted by the pro-Ukranian side as things going as best as they can with limited resources they have and a potential breakthrough still being possible by the end of the year. And by the pro-Russian side it is viewed as an abject failure of the summer counter-offensive. Glass half-full, half-empty kind of thing I guess.
Let me add a couple thoughts on that too.
I think that the material in the video is of good quality, (except for a couple minor things, like "Soviet mentality of the Ukrainian army", which is nothing but a propagandist cliche), and depicts the recent battlefield events in good faith.
However, imho, the video is poor at depicting the big picture. First, in a war of attrition the relevance of small territorial losses and gains is diminished, while the most important thing for the both sides is to sustain capacity of the armies. So the analysis should be centered on calculating losses of equipment and infantry, reserves movements, and a situation with draft. Second, this video and the others on their Youtube video list do not reflect some long-term trends in tactics and equipment employed on the battlefield. These have changed significantly in the last month or two, the main being increased FPV drones and Lancet usage, and introduction of JDAM-analogue planning bombs.
If one wants to get technical then yes, Russia did, repel a Ukrainian naval attack. But with the hull of the Russian ship... not a sailor but I'm pretty sure ships are not supposed to Lost like that....
Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed Friday that its ships had “repelled an attack” by Ukrainian unmanned boats threatening a naval base, according to state media, before Kyiv released a video apparently showing the attack succeeding.
“Tonight, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, using two crewless boats, attempted to attack the Novorossiysk naval base,” a source in the ministry told the TASS news agency, referring to the Black Sea installation in southern Russia. “In the course of repelling the attack, crewless boats were visually detected and destroyed by fire from the standard weapons of Russian ships guarding the outer raid of the naval base.”
Hours later, Kyiv came out with a different version of events. A Ukrainian official told Interfax that the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the Ukrainian Navy had conducted the operation and that a large Russian landing ship named Olenegorsky Gornyak had been damaged. The source said that as a result of the attack, the ship “suffered a serious hole and is currently unable to perform its combat tasks.” “All Russian statements about the ‘attack being repulsed’ are fake,” they added.
To bolster the Ukrainian version of events, a video purportedly showing footage from a camera on board one of the surface drones was also released. “The video shows how a surface drone of the SBU, saturated with 450 kilograms of TNT, attacks an enemy ship with about 100 crew members on board,” the source said.
The black-and-white recording appears to show the bow of some type of vessel as the watercraft sails toward the port side of a large ship. The Ukrainian vessel travels closer and closer to the ship until the footage cuts to static—presumably at the point of impact.
On Friday morning, multiple videos began circulating on social media appearing to show the same ship targeted in the attack footage being towed. The ship is listing heavily to its port side as it’s dragged across the water.
Given Russia’s denial that the drone attack had succeeded, it’s not clear if there were any casualties in the incident. Veniamin Kondratiev, the governor of the Krasnodar region where the naval base is located, said no one had been hurt, according to The Associated Press.
But the assault was serious enough for the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which operates a pipeline terminal in the port of Novorossiysk, to issue a “temporary ban” on all ship movement in the area. The order was later lifted. The civilian port handles 2 percent of all of the world’s oil supply as well as grain exports, according to Reuters.
Crimea, which is just across the water from Novorossiysk, was similarly attacked with drones early Friday, according to Russia’s Defense Ministry. It claimed to have taken out 13 drones, with 10 shot down and three jammed.
The latest volley of attacks inside Russia and occupied Crimea come after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that the conflict would return to the aggressors’ homeland. “The war is gradually returning to Russian territory,” he said in a video message over the weekend. Zelesnky called the development an “inevitable, natural, and absolutely fair process.”
On August 04 2023 22:33 2Pacalypse- wrote: @Ardias @zeo, would you guys say this video is an accurate representation of the current situation on the frontlines from your guys perspectives?
It's interesting, if everything here is true, that this could be interpreted by the pro-Ukranian side as things going as best as they can with limited resources they have and a potential breakthrough still being possible by the end of the year. And by the pro-Russian side it is viewed as an abject failure of the summer counter-offensive. Glass half-full, half-empty kind of thing I guess.
Obviously the guy has a pro-Ukraine bias and everything shown and talked about in the video is through that tint. He is very careful about the language surrounding Ukrainian losses, downplaying their type, instead using terms like 'expending offensive potential', 'culmination of the attack'. Also using the Ukrainian MOD as a source for half the things he is saying though he does counter that with Russian sources too, though they are more used as token references.
That said he is miles more grounded in reality than some other creators that quite frankly deserve the collective name 'copetubers'. There is a significantly lower bar set for content creators that are pro-Ukrainian, they are incentivized (with money) to be as bombastic and pro-Ukrainian as possible because there are no drawbacks or repercussions for outright lying, yet when you stray too far away from the party line and start 'bumming everyone out' you get attacked by NAFO trolls or demonetized. And again, I'm sure its not easy trying to be this realistic about the updates on the pro-Ukrainian side, but he has found his niche audience that want a more balanced approach and tis is a very healthy way to approach the subject.
There also is a factor of reading between the lines here, maybe guiding the viewer to come to the conclusion he cannot say.
On August 04 2023 22:33 2Pacalypse- wrote: @Ardias @zeo, would you guys say this video is an accurate representation of the current situation on the frontlines from your guys perspectives?
It's interesting, if everything here is true, that this could be interpreted by the pro-Ukranian side as things going as best as they can with limited resources they have and a potential breakthrough still being possible by the end of the year. And by the pro-Russian side it is viewed as an abject failure of the summer counter-offensive. Glass half-full, half-empty kind of thing I guess.
Nothing in the video is untrue (As far as I could tell), but the way it was told was really weird. It opens with "Let's look at what happened since the start of the counter attack 2 months ago", and then solely focuses on the last days and weeks. It also singularly looks at meters gained or lost, which we very well know is a pretty bad indication for how anything is going. Ukraine winning 100 meters and losing 100000 men would not be an indicator that things are going well. Similarly, gaining only 100 meters in 2 months but killing 100000 men and completely wiping out supplies and artillery would be really good. This video completely fails to look at any big picture, other than short mentions here and there.
On August 04 2023 22:33 2Pacalypse- wrote: @Ardias @zeo, would you guys say this video is an accurate representation of the current situation on the frontlines from your guys perspectives?
It's interesting, if everything here is true, that this could be interpreted by the pro-Ukranian side as things going as best as they can with limited resources they have and a potential breakthrough still being possible by the end of the year. And by the pro-Russian side it is viewed as an abject failure of the summer counter-offensive. Glass half-full, half-empty kind of thing I guess.
Nothing in the video is untrue (As far as I could tell), but the way it was told was really weird. It opens with "Let's look at what happened since the start of the counter attack 2 months ago", and then solely focuses on the last days and weeks. It also singularly looks at meters gained or lost, which we very well know is a pretty bad indication for how anything is going. Ukraine winning 100 meters and losing 100000 men would not be an indicator that things are going well. Similarly, gaining only 100 meters in 2 months but killing 100000 men and completely wiping out supplies and artillery would be really good. This video completely fails to look at any big picture, other than short mentions here and there.
The most important element of the big picture is the fact that the Russian forces are leaning against the Black Sea. Since late 2022 it's been argued that Ukraine should attempt to push deep into the Zaporizhzhia oblast and cut off the supply lines between main land Russia and the Kherson oblast. This single achievement would break much of Russia's defensive efforts. It would also increase Ukraine's stock while decreasing Russia's. It's the single most important task of Ukraine's offensive.
The reason why this hasn't happened yet is because it's a huge undertaking. Russia is completely aware that this is the single biggest threat, and that's why most of the defensive lines are set up in Zaporizhzhia.
Each single step into annexed territory may be minor in and of itself, but with each step Russian defenses get closer to a breaking point. So don't be fooled by the snail's pace of Ukraine's operation. There were already a few breakthroughs in that region, and more will follow. Russian command is not happy.
Edit: to add to this problem, Ukraine does not have a Black Sea equivalent. Russia has a massive weak point while Ukraine does not.
On August 04 2023 22:33 2Pacalypse- wrote: @Ardias @zeo, would you guys say this video is an accurate representation of the current situation on the frontlines from your guys perspectives?
It's interesting, if everything here is true, that this could be interpreted by the pro-Ukranian side as things going as best as they can with limited resources they have and a potential breakthrough still being possible by the end of the year. And by the pro-Russian side it is viewed as an abject failure of the summer counter-offensive. Glass half-full, half-empty kind of thing I guess.
Nothing in the video is untrue (As far as I could tell), but the way it was told was really weird. It opens with "Let's look at what happened since the start of the counter attack 2 months ago", and then solely focuses on the last days and weeks. It also singularly looks at meters gained or lost, which we very well know is a pretty bad indication for how anything is going. Ukraine winning 100 meters and losing 100000 men would not be an indicator that things are going well. Similarly, gaining only 100 meters in 2 months but killing 100000 men and completely wiping out supplies and artillery would be really good. This video completely fails to look at any big picture, other than short mentions here and there.
The most important element of the big picture is the fact that the Russian forces are leaning against the Black Sea. Since late 2022 it's been argued that Ukraine should attempt to push deep into the Zaporizhzhia oblast and cut off the supply lines between main land Russia and the Kherson oblast. This single achievement would break much of Russia's defensive efforts. It would also increase Ukraine's stock while decreasing Russia's. It's the single most important task of Ukraine's offensive.
The reason why this hasn't happened yet is because it's a huge undertaking. Russia is completely aware that this is the single biggest threat, and that's why most of the defensive lines are set up in Zaporizhzhia.
Each single step into annexed territory may be minor in and of itself, but with each step Russian defenses get closer to a breaking point. So don't be fooled by the snail's pace of Ukraine's operation. There were already a few breakthroughs in that region, and more will follow. Russian command is not happy.
Edit: to add to this problem, Ukraine does not have a Black Sea equivalent. Russia has a massive weak point while Ukraine does not.
Russia's weakest point would be the northern front that is protected by nukes. Drive directly towards Moscow ignoring all the defenses within Ukraine, go through Belarus if that makes the most sense. It will not happen since people are afraid it is a red line that would actually matter instead of being posturing and the international condemnation would not be as severe.
On August 04 2023 22:33 2Pacalypse- wrote: @Ardias @zeo, would you guys say this video is an accurate representation of the current situation on the frontlines from your guys perspectives?
It's interesting, if everything here is true, that this could be interpreted by the pro-Ukranian side as things going as best as they can with limited resources they have and a potential breakthrough still being possible by the end of the year. And by the pro-Russian side it is viewed as an abject failure of the summer counter-offensive. Glass half-full, half-empty kind of thing I guess.
Nothing in the video is untrue (As far as I could tell), but the way it was told was really weird. It opens with "Let's look at what happened since the start of the counter attack 2 months ago", and then solely focuses on the last days and weeks. It also singularly looks at meters gained or lost, which we very well know is a pretty bad indication for how anything is going. Ukraine winning 100 meters and losing 100000 men would not be an indicator that things are going well. Similarly, gaining only 100 meters in 2 months but killing 100000 men and completely wiping out supplies and artillery would be really good. This video completely fails to look at any big picture, other than short mentions here and there.
The most important element of the big picture is the fact that the Russian forces are leaning against the Black Sea. Since late 2022 it's been argued that Ukraine should attempt to push deep into the Zaporizhzhia oblast and cut off the supply lines between main land Russia and the Kherson oblast. This single achievement would break much of Russia's defensive efforts. It would also increase Ukraine's stock while decreasing Russia's. It's the single most important task of Ukraine's offensive.
The reason why this hasn't happened yet is because it's a huge undertaking. Russia is completely aware that this is the single biggest threat, and that's why most of the defensive lines are set up in Zaporizhzhia.
Each single step into annexed territory may be minor in and of itself, but with each step Russian defenses get closer to a breaking point. So don't be fooled by the snail's pace of Ukraine's operation. There were already a few breakthroughs in that region, and more will follow. Russian command is not happy.
Edit: to add to this problem, Ukraine does not have a Black Sea equivalent. Russia has a massive weak point while Ukraine does not.
Russia's weakest point would be the northern front that is protected by nukes. Drive directly towards Moscow ignoring all the defenses within Ukraine, go through Belarus if that makes the most sense. It will not happen since people are afraid it is a red line that would actually matter instead of being posturing and the international condemnation would not be as severe.
I would agree, as that is technically true. Russia would face a lot of additional pressure if Ukraine could attack North. Unfortunately as you also correctly point out it won't happen. Russia effectively threatens Ukraine from three directions, but Ukraine can only threaten Russia from two in return. That's a big disadvantage.
I have no idea what this is, but here's my prediction:
Russia will claim it was attacked by drones or missiles, but they were all shot down. The bridge is closed tho, and no one can come see it.
Ukraine or someone else will leak a picture a few hours later of the bridge definitely not being ok. Russia will claim the bridge can be opened next morning
Russia finally admits bridge will need a few months repairs, but this won't impact the war because bla bla bla
Russia will wait until it has a plan before releasing any info about what happened. Even if its a patch job like the last time it was hit they will have people even now working out what they need to keep it working. Until then they won't allow anyone close enough to see what it looks like in the light of day. They might not have planned for the bridge to go out but I doubt that, I just don't see what possible plan could be made if the bridge has taken more direct hits or if the rail line is finally going down.
The Ukranian counter-offensive has already been more successful than the battle for Bakmut, that's undeniable and has cost nothing like what taking bakhmut over 10 months took. I think the factor of undergrowth providing cover for minefields wasn't as considered as it should be is obvious but even the northern counter-counter-offensives have been localized and pushed back. video footage and other evidence is that AFU is through the first line of anti tank defences and is approaching the second line of more pilboxy-serous line of russian defences in the south.
On August 05 2023 00:32 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: If one wants to get technical then yes, Russia did, repel a Ukrainian naval attack. But with the hull of the Russian ship... not a sailor but I'm pretty sure ships are not supposed to Lost like that....
Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed Friday that its ships had “repelled an attack” by Ukrainian unmanned boats threatening a naval base, according to state media, before Kyiv released a video apparently showing the attack succeeding.
“Tonight, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, using two crewless boats, attempted to attack the Novorossiysk naval base,” a source in the ministry told the TASS news agency, referring to the Black Sea installation in southern Russia. “In the course of repelling the attack, crewless boats were visually detected and destroyed by fire from the standard weapons of Russian ships guarding the outer raid of the naval base.”
Hours later, Kyiv came out with a different version of events. A Ukrainian official told Interfax that the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the Ukrainian Navy had conducted the operation and that a large Russian landing ship named Olenegorsky Gornyak had been damaged. The source said that as a result of the attack, the ship “suffered a serious hole and is currently unable to perform its combat tasks.” “All Russian statements about the ‘attack being repulsed’ are fake,” they added.
To bolster the Ukrainian version of events, a video purportedly showing footage from a camera on board one of the surface drones was also released. “The video shows how a surface drone of the SBU, saturated with 450 kilograms of TNT, attacks an enemy ship with about 100 crew members on board,” the source said.
The black-and-white recording appears to show the bow of some type of vessel as the watercraft sails toward the port side of a large ship. The Ukrainian vessel travels closer and closer to the ship until the footage cuts to static—presumably at the point of impact.
On Friday morning, multiple videos began circulating on social media appearing to show the same ship targeted in the attack footage being towed. The ship is listing heavily to its port side as it’s dragged across the water.
Given Russia’s denial that the drone attack had succeeded, it’s not clear if there were any casualties in the incident. Veniamin Kondratiev, the governor of the Krasnodar region where the naval base is located, said no one had been hurt, according to The Associated Press.
But the assault was serious enough for the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which operates a pipeline terminal in the port of Novorossiysk, to issue a “temporary ban” on all ship movement in the area. The order was later lifted. The civilian port handles 2 percent of all of the world’s oil supply as well as grain exports, according to Reuters.
Crimea, which is just across the water from Novorossiysk, was similarly attacked with drones early Friday, according to Russia’s Defense Ministry. It claimed to have taken out 13 drones, with 10 shot down and three jammed.
The latest volley of attacks inside Russia and occupied Crimea come after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that the conflict would return to the aggressors’ homeland. “The war is gradually returning to Russian territory,” he said in a video message over the weekend. Zelesnky called the development an “inevitable, natural, and absolutely fair process.”
On August 05 2023 00:32 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: If one wants to get technical then yes, Russia did, repel a Ukrainian naval attack. But with the hull of the Russian ship... not a sailor but I'm pretty sure ships are not supposed to Lost like that....
Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed Friday that its ships had “repelled an attack” by Ukrainian unmanned boats threatening a naval base, according to state media, before Kyiv released a video apparently showing the attack succeeding.
“Tonight, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, using two crewless boats, attempted to attack the Novorossiysk naval base,” a source in the ministry told the TASS news agency, referring to the Black Sea installation in southern Russia. “In the course of repelling the attack, crewless boats were visually detected and destroyed by fire from the standard weapons of Russian ships guarding the outer raid of the naval base.”
Hours later, Kyiv came out with a different version of events. A Ukrainian official told Interfax that the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the Ukrainian Navy had conducted the operation and that a large Russian landing ship named Olenegorsky Gornyak had been damaged. The source said that as a result of the attack, the ship “suffered a serious hole and is currently unable to perform its combat tasks.” “All Russian statements about the ‘attack being repulsed’ are fake,” they added.
To bolster the Ukrainian version of events, a video purportedly showing footage from a camera on board one of the surface drones was also released. “The video shows how a surface drone of the SBU, saturated with 450 kilograms of TNT, attacks an enemy ship with about 100 crew members on board,” the source said.
The black-and-white recording appears to show the bow of some type of vessel as the watercraft sails toward the port side of a large ship. The Ukrainian vessel travels closer and closer to the ship until the footage cuts to static—presumably at the point of impact.
On Friday morning, multiple videos began circulating on social media appearing to show the same ship targeted in the attack footage being towed. The ship is listing heavily to its port side as it’s dragged across the water.
Given Russia’s denial that the drone attack had succeeded, it’s not clear if there were any casualties in the incident. Veniamin Kondratiev, the governor of the Krasnodar region where the naval base is located, said no one had been hurt, according to The Associated Press.
But the assault was serious enough for the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which operates a pipeline terminal in the port of Novorossiysk, to issue a “temporary ban” on all ship movement in the area. The order was later lifted. The civilian port handles 2 percent of all of the world’s oil supply as well as grain exports, according to Reuters.
Crimea, which is just across the water from Novorossiysk, was similarly attacked with drones early Friday, according to Russia’s Defense Ministry. It claimed to have taken out 13 drones, with 10 shot down and three jammed.
The latest volley of attacks inside Russia and occupied Crimea come after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that the conflict would return to the aggressors’ homeland. “The war is gradually returning to Russian territory,” he said in a video message over the weekend. Zelesnky called the development an “inevitable, natural, and absolutely fair process.”
The fact that they *do* get lost like that isn't a counterpoint to the statement that they aren't supposed to get lost like that. I don't know much about most of those ships, but the loss of the Royal Oak was a bit of an embarrassment to the Brits and caused major changes in that port and for port defense in general. So it seems to agree with Stealthblue's appraisal that ships *shouldn't* be lost in that manner.
I don't know when people are finally going to call you out for your consistent pro-Russian propaganda, but I hope this post triggers it.
Well there's no need, he said from that start that he's unapologetically pro-Russian in this war.
The issue is this colonel he keeps listening to and quoting is always comically wrong. It's like listening to a religious leader that predicted the rapture 5 times and nothing happened, and instead of leaving that church and doing self-reflection, you keep listening to them with respect and pestering your acquaintances with their 'wise' quotes.
lol. Even the least conservative numbers doesn't even have 400k casualties on both sides of the war, let alone 400k deaths on only one side.
Here's a rule of thumb for you: Casualties are usually going to be about 5x higher than the number of deaths. It's not a hard fast rule, it's more like 4x for Russia and 6x for Ukraine atm, but roughly thereabouts.
Do you think Ukraine has had 2 million casualties in this war? That's more than their ENTIRE ARMED FORCES in size, including the reserves! Does this make even a remotely lick of sense to you?
I'm breaking a 3 year old not posting streak to respond to this trash.
This is a joke.
Macgregor makes some really interesting and valid points about ISTAR (Intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance) and then waffles for quite some time.
I urge you to engage critically with this material, you are not contributing to this discussion in a meaningful way. In fairness to you, plenty of other posters are just posting links with very limited commentary, but they aren't all parroting opinions.
Lets break down this video and do some "midnight, I need to go to bed" critical analysis.
Discussion of the offensive, and how it seems to be going no where - this is very fair and testable statement, if offensives are judged in ground gained, then the current offensive is lacklustre.
Tally of bodies comment - This is presumed and its likely that killed and injured will be high, especially as the attacker usually suffers heavier casualties. However, I've not seen reliable material on how many people have died on either side.
"I just received some overhead surveillance material from Ukraine" - where is this material coming from? He is currently a retired colonel, so we can presuppose this material is open sourced. This is not to say the material is of poor quality. Others have demonstrated the use of OS satellite imagery and come to interesting conclusions. Its entirely possible that this material shows 123,000 freshly dug graves, but without verification we should be wary of this leaned on heavily in his argument.
"and the estimate on the bottom of the picture is that 400k Ukrainian soldiers have been killed so far" - from whom? and what does the relevance of a picture of 123k graves have to do with that figure?
To be charitable, perhaps he has buddies in the US intelligence community who leaked this material whom presumably have no motivation to soft peddle the stats in classified material. To be uncharitable, perhaps he got this image off 4chan.
The comments on re-fighting WW2 - this is the generally interesting comment that I mentioned up top. I would argue contrawise to his position: that Russia is doing ISTAR better than Ukraine, but this is an area that warrants close inspection and data that is simply not available to me or other civilians.
I heartily agree with his sentiment that nothing happens in eastern Ukraine without the Russians knowing about it. We can quibble how much: but the proliferation of drones and the reams of footage coming out of this war attests to this being a reasonable idea.
The downlink stuff: I have no idea if the Russian C3 stuff is better, might be: a big unknown for folks outside the Russian military or foreign intelligence communities.
Again, a really interesting point about air defences! Even as a casual observer this passes the smell test, the amount of GBAD that Russia and Ukraine have has relegated the use of conventional air power to the side lines. Helicopters are making pitch up attacks and jets have had to stay out of reach of s300 and launch standoff munitions.Let it not be said that I'm being partisan!
Focus on territory, rather than destruction - This is a really curious point, Douglas earlier remarks that the offensive is going nowhere- did he mean its not making any ground or is not destroying the required materiel? This is really hard to test - if the Ukrainians are destroying large amount of materiel, they ain't saying nor are the Russians and both have very good reasons not to say. I would conclude that they aren't, and we are witnessing a force making slow headway into a prepared position.
-EditOSINT could be used to test this point, however there are biases as to what will be represented - Ships sunk and damaged will be reliable data points, they are big, few and hard to conceal their loss. A Tank knocked out by a man portable AT weapon, somewhat reliable. A piece of material behind the lines disabled by a missile or artillery, somewhat under represented.
The non-sequitur about how "the west" has seemingly corrupted the Ukrainians with shit military tactics is odd, and very much the trope of "we used to know how to fight wars" "back when America was strong"
Broken armies versus defeated armies. A lot of what he says in conjecture, but if the army is indeed melting away - then you would be think large Russian territorial gains would follow. These may not serve a tactical purpose, but it would strengthen Russia's hand at the peace table, and the enforcement of their "war goals".
We could ended this war in march - neutrality. I don't know how to respond to this because a lot of what is refers is utter bollocks. Leaving aside the claim that Ukrainian negotiation team said we could live with neutrality (when, where), the idea that Russia didn't want a Foward operating base from NATO which could be used to attack them on their border is nonsense.
First, before the conflict, there were 5 NATO countries on their border, there are now 6. Second, Why does a defensive alliance want to go war with Russia, a nuclear armed power, who has been not been shy of nuclear brinksmanship? What sound reason is there? what credible threat? Is NATO going to war with Russia because we hate how much they love the "family" in Russia.
Trying my best here: Nato wants all the energy resources in an increasingly energy starved world, so we fight a huge war with both sides having Nukes, in a war were hundreds of thousands of people will die (judging by the casualty theory on display here), so we can melt the planet faster. It doesn't pass any sense at all, and while irrational behaviour is possible, irrationality on this scale is incomprehensible.
"they don't want to march on Poland etc, if they did they would be marching on kiev right now" - They tried marching on the capital and it went really badly for them. To head any rebuttals off at the pass: You do not usually conduct an air assault on a city airport without the intent to take the city, because without reinforcement those airborne troops will die.
"The oppressed Russians in Ukraine" - A huge can of worms. For brevity I'm not going to go there, but will mention that when Doug says "this is what the war has always been about", the Russian message on the war has never consistent, and readily bumps into reality onto a ready basis.
"Ukrainians are bad" - Ukrainians have capacity the be bad. The evidence needs to be weighed before any conclusions could be drawn.
"Host just states money is being stolen by Ukrainian oligarchies" - Entirely plausible again, but like this is something you actively believe in if you are already in the echo chamber.
A lot of discussion about Trump which really doesn't say anything I can critique.
A good point about the construction of militaries, which then devolves into "we've contracted this war out" and then into rambling conspiratorial thinking, which editorialising here is"we are using actual warfare to fight the culture war".
To hear him tell it, the economy of Europe is in shambles and I was stabbed to death 17 times yesterday on the streets of Londonstan all because I wouldn't say mahshallah. This is a waste of time to rebut: however, Russian is the one hold out of anti-globalist sentiment? So China, Korea and Japan are all multicultural paradises where everyone has six genders and changes their race after lunch? This is nonsense.
I'm fully expecting you to not engage with any of the critique - please surprise me as I watched and listened to this journalistic abortion three times, in attempt to broaden my outlook and actually engage with content outside my wheelhouse.
Even if you don't engage, you can do better than just posting a video. As you are still posting on a forum in 2023, you clearly care about something.
TL:DR You got a source for that statistic? MY SOURCE IS THAT I MADE IT THE FUCK UP
EPT
