NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
I know the source isn't the best but it was the first one that had the relevant pictures in English that I spotted.
So they hit another ship, is this due to them being forced to deploy them due to inspecting ships? My personal reasoning is that their defensive screen keeps changing due to ship deployments. Cancelling the grain deal was a big blow to the Russian Navy, now they actually have to do something apart from protecting from drones/missiles and launching Cruise Missiles when available. This forces them to split up and move into riskier regions, both possible to try to exploit.
On August 04 2023 00:00 KwarK wrote: There is no reasonable discussion to be had on who the bad guy is. This is a WW2 remix and Putin is playing the part of Hitler.
"Something similar" referred to info about boots on the ground, actual frontline action, close rear etc., like the video Excludos had initially brought. Not about philosophical "good vs evil" arguments you had for the last 15 pages.
There’s an awful lot of fog of war involved and the actual fighting at the moment is largely small scale. In terms of the men dying both sides could sustain this forever. Frontline action news on a daily scale is “no news”.
The reason it gets called out as propaganda is because zeo’s triumphalist “some Ukrainian tanks were blown up crossing a minefield” is a trifecta of 1. Not news 2. Not unknown to anyone already 3. Not important.
This war is, by historical standards, being fought on a relatively small scale. Were this WW1 we would see about 2m men on either side. It will not be won by large maneuvers of infantry pushing through. The one instance we’ve seen of that, the Kharkiv counteroffensive, was a fairly small Ukrainian force pushing through a non existent Russian force. That will not be repeated. The combination of anti air, anti tank mines, artillery combined with drone spotting, and ATGMs has created a situation that forces low intensity warfare because concentrations of forces just results in being punished by missile strikes.
It will be won by exhaustion, either of Russia which is rapidly spending its Soviet inheritance or Ukraine which is dependent on a politically unreliable United States. In that context zeo’s gloating over the death of every Ukrainian patriot or the slow progress of the war, a war in which Ukrainian children are murdered daily, is frustrating. It rankles people to see gloating over the loss of brave men fighting to preserve their families against a genocidal enemy.
Of course people on the Ukrainian side also celebrate Russian failures, even though killing another 200 men in a HIMARS strike ultimately changes little. But the key difference is that those are invaders fighting on the pro genocide pro killing children side. Their death is worth celebrating. It gets us that little bit closer to the moment when missiles stop hitting school playgrounds. And that gets us straight back to the ideological issues. The difference between zeo gloating that Ukrainian patriots have died fighting in the invaders, even though it’s not relevant, and everyone else celebrating a strike on Russian troops is that one side is good and the other evil.
Last year you were claiming Ukraine was going to reach Mariupol before the end of 2022. Now you say that it will take ages. I thought that referendums were made to allow the use of conscripts extensively, but no, they are used only on the northern border, not in the active war zone. A lot of people in this thread had high hopes for swift UA counteroffensive, cutting the land bridge to Crimea, etc. but today is two months since it started, and AFU current progress is few kilometers at best.
My point is - war is changing, tactics and strategy are changing, means to conduct a war, political and economical situation within both sides and around the globe etc. etc. are changing, making our previous perception and predictions wrong. I consider it worth discussing, as well as some people in this thread. But it quickly gets drowned in "Kremlin propaganda!", "you are nazis", "I hope Ruskies would suffer" etc.
I mean, if that what current active posters want to do all the time, celebrate dead Ruskies, predict what doom awaits Russia and confirm your higher moral standing - it's your right. Though it seems that it upsets other posters a bit, even the Western one. This thread used to have good and thoughtful discussions, in which I've gladly participated. But I guess war radicalize people, even on the other side of the globe.
On August 04 2023 16:16 zeo wrote: So an analysis of the first three posted answers:
@kwark - dont know what you are trying to get at with the Marshal plan angle. The US didnt build roads in Ukraine. It funded anti-government institutions and programs in a country where 5 billion dollars can pay for a lot
@0x64 - thats a cringe way of building a strawman, does this way of talking work for you in real life?
@Magic - the guy 'done with me' seems to have a new fixation with my posts after his Hitler episodes. I look to spend as much time on Russia as you spend on Ukraine, balance in all things is key. I really hope you will start talking more about the problems inside Ukraine so I dont have to be the one to do it and I can shift focus to Russia.
All in all at least Kwark tried to shift the goalposts and add something, the only non-shitpost of the three
Are you taking time from your family to argue on the internet about how good is the russian war?
Nope, very slow at work this week.
Fresh fruits are being pushed into Poland from Ukraine at dumping prices, say Serbs and Poles were selling raspberries at 3-4eur per kg. Now some coldstores around Lublin are reexporting Ukrainian raspberries at 1.2eur. Its messed up Polish and Balkan markets and the agro sector bad. Germany, UK, France all importing food much less in general, just using the UK as an example apple sales dropped off dramatically last year.
Our agro sector pivoted the goods that couldnt be sold to the EU to Russia but anyones thats had contact with Russian bureaucracy knows what a pain in the ass working with Russia is. Plus all of the EU entities trying to create phantom companies here to reexport things to the RU market as Serbian making everything more difficult.
You cant blame the German companies for buying cheaper raw materials so they dont have to raise their prices but these goods have no origin and who knows where they came from and what standards were implemented. It will all probably dry up with poor harvests in Ukraine but it will take a long time for the markets to heal. Fresh food prices are going to skyrocket thats all i know, we are all in for some rough times.
On August 04 2023 00:00 KwarK wrote: There is no reasonable discussion to be had on who the bad guy is. This is a WW2 remix and Putin is playing the part of Hitler.
"Something similar" referred to info about boots on the ground, actual frontline action, close rear etc., like the video Excludos had initially brought. Not about philosophical "good vs evil" arguments you had for the last 15 pages.
There’s an awful lot of fog of war involved and the actual fighting at the moment is largely small scale. In terms of the men dying both sides could sustain this forever. Frontline action news on a daily scale is “no news”.
The reason it gets called out as propaganda is because zeo’s triumphalist “some Ukrainian tanks were blown up crossing a minefield” is a trifecta of 1. Not news 2. Not unknown to anyone already 3. Not important.
This war is, by historical standards, being fought on a relatively small scale. Were this WW1 we would see about 2m men on either side. It will not be won by large maneuvers of infantry pushing through. The one instance we’ve seen of that, the Kharkiv counteroffensive, was a fairly small Ukrainian force pushing through a non existent Russian force. That will not be repeated. The combination of anti air, anti tank mines, artillery combined with drone spotting, and ATGMs has created a situation that forces low intensity warfare because concentrations of forces just results in being punished by missile strikes.
It will be won by exhaustion, either of Russia which is rapidly spending its Soviet inheritance or Ukraine which is dependent on a politically unreliable United States. In that context zeo’s gloating over the death of every Ukrainian patriot or the slow progress of the war, a war in which Ukrainian children are murdered daily, is frustrating. It rankles people to see gloating over the loss of brave men fighting to preserve their families against a genocidal enemy.
Of course people on the Ukrainian side also celebrate Russian failures, even though killing another 200 men in a HIMARS strike ultimately changes little. But the key difference is that those are invaders fighting on the pro genocide pro killing children side. Their death is worth celebrating. It gets us that little bit closer to the moment when missiles stop hitting school playgrounds. And that gets us straight back to the ideological issues. The difference between zeo gloating that Ukrainian patriots have died fighting in the invaders, even though it’s not relevant, and everyone else celebrating a strike on Russian troops is that one side is good and the other evil.
Last year you were claiming Ukraine was going to reach Mariupol before the end of 2022. Now you say that it will take ages. I thought that referendums were made to allow the use of conscripts extensively, but no, they are used only on the northern border, not in the active war zone. A lot of people in this thread had high hopes for swift UA counteroffensive, cutting the land bridge to Crimea, etc. but today is two months since it started, and AFU current progress is few kilometers at best.
My point is - war is changing, tactics and strategy are changing, means to conduct a war, political and economical situation within both sides and around the globe etc. etc. are changing, making our previous perception and predictions wrong. I consider it worth discussing, as well as some people in this thread. But it quickly gets drowned in "Kremlin propaganda!", "you are nazis", "I hope Ruskies would suffer" etc.
I mean, if that what current active posters want to do all the time, celebrate dead Ruskies, predict what doom awaits Russia and confirm your higher moral standing - it's your right. Though it seems that it upsets other posters a bit, even the Western one. This thread used to have good and thoughtful discussions, in which I've gladly participated. But I guess war radicalize people, even on the other side of the globe.
I think you can look at it like a sports game for many viewers. Most people here cheer for team Ukraine and cheer when they score (take land, kill people, sink a ship etc). They then speculate on the next move as if watching American Football or Chess. They are then not much more involved in it since it does not impact their day to day life directly. Increased food prices and similar things does impact them but the connection is too long to make for most people.
Most people outside of Russia and Ukraine has too low interest to know which units are stationed where, the quality of those units and so on. Thus any analysis of war progress is on a high level, we simply are not willing to spend the time to do proper analysis.
Overall the progress of the war can be summed up in more Russians and land equipment dying than Ukrainian ones. Russia hitting whatever they like with Cruise Missiles, might take a few tries at worst. Production for Ukraine is higher than Russia so a long war benefits the nations supporting Ukraine or are against Russia for geopolitical reasons.
On August 04 2023 00:00 KwarK wrote: There is no reasonable discussion to be had on who the bad guy is. This is a WW2 remix and Putin is playing the part of Hitler.
"Something similar" referred to info about boots on the ground, actual frontline action, close rear etc., like the video Excludos had initially brought. Not about philosophical "good vs evil" arguments you had for the last 15 pages.
There’s an awful lot of fog of war involved and the actual fighting at the moment is largely small scale. In terms of the men dying both sides could sustain this forever. Frontline action news on a daily scale is “no news”.
The reason it gets called out as propaganda is because zeo’s triumphalist “some Ukrainian tanks were blown up crossing a minefield” is a trifecta of 1. Not news 2. Not unknown to anyone already 3. Not important.
This war is, by historical standards, being fought on a relatively small scale. Were this WW1 we would see about 2m men on either side. It will not be won by large maneuvers of infantry pushing through. The one instance we’ve seen of that, the Kharkiv counteroffensive, was a fairly small Ukrainian force pushing through a non existent Russian force. That will not be repeated. The combination of anti air, anti tank mines, artillery combined with drone spotting, and ATGMs has created a situation that forces low intensity warfare because concentrations of forces just results in being punished by missile strikes.
It will be won by exhaustion, either of Russia which is rapidly spending its Soviet inheritance or Ukraine which is dependent on a politically unreliable United States. In that context zeo’s gloating over the death of every Ukrainian patriot or the slow progress of the war, a war in which Ukrainian children are murdered daily, is frustrating. It rankles people to see gloating over the loss of brave men fighting to preserve their families against a genocidal enemy.
Of course people on the Ukrainian side also celebrate Russian failures, even though killing another 200 men in a HIMARS strike ultimately changes little. But the key difference is that those are invaders fighting on the pro genocide pro killing children side. Their death is worth celebrating. It gets us that little bit closer to the moment when missiles stop hitting school playgrounds. And that gets us straight back to the ideological issues. The difference between zeo gloating that Ukrainian patriots have died fighting in the invaders, even though it’s not relevant, and everyone else celebrating a strike on Russian troops is that one side is good and the other evil.
Last year you were claiming Ukraine was going to reach Mariupol before the end of 2022. Now you say that it will take ages. I thought that referendums were made to allow the use of conscripts extensively, but no, they are used only on the northern border, not in the active war zone. A lot of people in this thread had high hopes for swift UA counteroffensive, cutting the land bridge to Crimea, etc. but today is two months since it started, and AFU current progress is few kilometers at best.
My point is - war is changing, tactics and strategy are changing, means to conduct a war, political and economical situation within both sides and around the globe etc. etc. are changing, making our previous perception and predictions wrong. I consider it worth discussing, as well as some people in this thread. But it quickly gets drowned in "Kremlin propaganda!", "you are nazis", "I hope Ruskies would suffer" etc.
I mean, if that what current active posters want to do all the time, celebrate dead Ruskies, predict what doom awaits Russia and confirm your higher moral standing - it's your right. Though it seems that it upsets other posters a bit, even the Western one. This thread used to have good and thoughtful discussions, in which I've gladly participated. But I guess war radicalize people, even on the other side of the globe.
I think you can look at it like a sports game for many viewers. Most people here cheer for team Ukraine and cheer when they score (take land, kill people, sink a ship etc). They then speculate on the next move as if watching American Football or Chess. They are then not much more involved in it since it does not impact their day to day life directly. Increased food prices and similar things does impact them but the connection is too long to make for most people.
Most people outside of Russia and Ukraine has too low interest to know which units are stationed where, the quality of those units and so on. Thus any analysis of war progress is on a high level, we simply are not willing to spend the time to do proper analysis.
Overall the progress of the war can be summed up in more Russians and land equipment dying than Ukrainian ones. Russia hitting whatever they like with Cruise Missiles, might take a few tries at worst. Production for Ukraine is higher than Russia so a long war benefits the nations supporting Ukraine or are against Russia for geopolitical reasons.
Your sports analogy is pretty on point. Especially considering the general level of discussion on sports sites and how fans of the opposite team fall on you if you say something positive about your team, especially if you are on their turf. Though if people deliberately visiting this thread on non-politics oriented website, I think they should have some interest to get in depth of the subject. It's not Reddit or Youtube, after all.
And your last paragraph is actually something worth discussing, if the discussion would be adequate and respectful from both sides.
On August 04 2023 00:00 KwarK wrote: There is no reasonable discussion to be had on who the bad guy is. This is a WW2 remix and Putin is playing the part of Hitler.
"Something similar" referred to info about boots on the ground, actual frontline action, close rear etc., like the video Excludos had initially brought. Not about philosophical "good vs evil" arguments you had for the last 15 pages.
There’s an awful lot of fog of war involved and the actual fighting at the moment is largely small scale. In terms of the men dying both sides could sustain this forever. Frontline action news on a daily scale is “no news”.
The reason it gets called out as propaganda is because zeo’s triumphalist “some Ukrainian tanks were blown up crossing a minefield” is a trifecta of 1. Not news 2. Not unknown to anyone already 3. Not important.
This war is, by historical standards, being fought on a relatively small scale. Were this WW1 we would see about 2m men on either side. It will not be won by large maneuvers of infantry pushing through. The one instance we’ve seen of that, the Kharkiv counteroffensive, was a fairly small Ukrainian force pushing through a non existent Russian force. That will not be repeated. The combination of anti air, anti tank mines, artillery combined with drone spotting, and ATGMs has created a situation that forces low intensity warfare because concentrations of forces just results in being punished by missile strikes.
It will be won by exhaustion, either of Russia which is rapidly spending its Soviet inheritance or Ukraine which is dependent on a politically unreliable United States. In that context zeo’s gloating over the death of every Ukrainian patriot or the slow progress of the war, a war in which Ukrainian children are murdered daily, is frustrating. It rankles people to see gloating over the loss of brave men fighting to preserve their families against a genocidal enemy.
Of course people on the Ukrainian side also celebrate Russian failures, even though killing another 200 men in a HIMARS strike ultimately changes little. But the key difference is that those are invaders fighting on the pro genocide pro killing children side. Their death is worth celebrating. It gets us that little bit closer to the moment when missiles stop hitting school playgrounds. And that gets us straight back to the ideological issues. The difference between zeo gloating that Ukrainian patriots have died fighting in the invaders, even though it’s not relevant, and everyone else celebrating a strike on Russian troops is that one side is good and the other evil.
Last year you were claiming Ukraine was going to reach Mariupol before the end of 2022. Now you say that it will take ages. I thought that referendums were made to allow the use of conscripts extensively, but no, they are used only on the northern border, not in the active war zone. A lot of people in this thread had high hopes for swift UA counteroffensive, cutting the land bridge to Crimea, etc. but today is two months since it started, and AFU current progress is few kilometers at best.
My point is - war is changing, tactics and strategy are changing, means to conduct a war, political and economical situation within both sides and around the globe etc. etc. are changing, making our previous perception and predictions wrong. I consider it worth discussing, as well as some people in this thread. But it quickly gets drowned in "Kremlin propaganda!", "you are nazis", "I hope Ruskies would suffer" etc.
I mean, if that what current active posters want to do all the time, celebrate dead Ruskies, predict what doom awaits Russia and confirm your higher moral standing - it's your right. Though it seems that it upsets other posters a bit, even the Western one. This thread used to have good and thoughtful discussions, in which I've gladly participated. But I guess war radicalize people, even on the other side of the globe.
I think you can look at it like a sports game for many viewers. Most people here cheer for team Ukraine and cheer when they score (take land, kill people, sink a ship etc). They then speculate on the next move as if watching American Football or Chess. They are then not much more involved in it since it does not impact their day to day life directly. Increased food prices and similar things does impact them but the connection is too long to make for most people.
Most people outside of Russia and Ukraine has too low interest to know which units are stationed where, the quality of those units and so on. Thus any analysis of war progress is on a high level, we simply are not willing to spend the time to do proper analysis.
Overall the progress of the war can be summed up in more Russians and land equipment dying than Ukrainian ones. Russia hitting whatever they like with Cruise Missiles, might take a few tries at worst. Production for Ukraine is higher than Russia so a long war benefits the nations supporting Ukraine or are against Russia for geopolitical reasons.
Your sports analogy is pretty on point. Especially considering the general level of discussion on sports sites and how fans of the opposite team fall on you if you say something positive about your team, especially if you are on their turf. Though if people deliberately visiting this thread on non-politics oriented website, I think they should have some interest to get in depth of the subject. It's not Reddit or Youtube, after all.
And your last paragraph is actually something worth discussing, if the discussion would be adequate and respectful from both sides.
The sports analogy is terrible. In sports there are rarely any moral considerations ahead of a match. Teams are generally politically neutral even when they represent different countries. Ukraine vs Russia is a matter of morality, not just winner or loser. We cheer for Ukraine because we believe Russia is on the wrong side of history, not just because we want Ukraine to reclaim its territory.
On August 04 2023 00:00 KwarK wrote: There is no reasonable discussion to be had on who the bad guy is. This is a WW2 remix and Putin is playing the part of Hitler.
"Something similar" referred to info about boots on the ground, actual frontline action, close rear etc., like the video Excludos had initially brought. Not about philosophical "good vs evil" arguments you had for the last 15 pages.
There’s an awful lot of fog of war involved and the actual fighting at the moment is largely small scale. In terms of the men dying both sides could sustain this forever. Frontline action news on a daily scale is “no news”.
The reason it gets called out as propaganda is because zeo’s triumphalist “some Ukrainian tanks were blown up crossing a minefield” is a trifecta of 1. Not news 2. Not unknown to anyone already 3. Not important.
This war is, by historical standards, being fought on a relatively small scale. Were this WW1 we would see about 2m men on either side. It will not be won by large maneuvers of infantry pushing through. The one instance we’ve seen of that, the Kharkiv counteroffensive, was a fairly small Ukrainian force pushing through a non existent Russian force. That will not be repeated. The combination of anti air, anti tank mines, artillery combined with drone spotting, and ATGMs has created a situation that forces low intensity warfare because concentrations of forces just results in being punished by missile strikes.
It will be won by exhaustion, either of Russia which is rapidly spending its Soviet inheritance or Ukraine which is dependent on a politically unreliable United States. In that context zeo’s gloating over the death of every Ukrainian patriot or the slow progress of the war, a war in which Ukrainian children are murdered daily, is frustrating. It rankles people to see gloating over the loss of brave men fighting to preserve their families against a genocidal enemy.
Of course people on the Ukrainian side also celebrate Russian failures, even though killing another 200 men in a HIMARS strike ultimately changes little. But the key difference is that those are invaders fighting on the pro genocide pro killing children side. Their death is worth celebrating. It gets us that little bit closer to the moment when missiles stop hitting school playgrounds. And that gets us straight back to the ideological issues. The difference between zeo gloating that Ukrainian patriots have died fighting in the invaders, even though it’s not relevant, and everyone else celebrating a strike on Russian troops is that one side is good and the other evil.
Last year you were claiming Ukraine was going to reach Mariupol before the end of 2022. Now you say that it will take ages. I thought that referendums were made to allow the use of conscripts extensively, but no, they are used only on the northern border, not in the active war zone. A lot of people in this thread had high hopes for swift UA counteroffensive, cutting the land bridge to Crimea, etc. but today is two months since it started, and AFU current progress is few kilometers at best.
My point is - war is changing, tactics and strategy are changing, means to conduct a war, political and economical situation within both sides and around the globe etc. etc. are changing, making our previous perception and predictions wrong. I consider it worth discussing, as well as some people in this thread. But it quickly gets drowned in "Kremlin propaganda!", "you are nazis", "I hope Ruskies would suffer" etc.
I mean, if that what current active posters want to do all the time, celebrate dead Ruskies, predict what doom awaits Russia and confirm your higher moral standing - it's your right. Though it seems that it upsets other posters a bit, even the Western one. This thread used to have good and thoughtful discussions, in which I've gladly participated. But I guess war radicalize people, even on the other side of the globe.
I think you can look at it like a sports game for many viewers. Most people here cheer for team Ukraine and cheer when they score (take land, kill people, sink a ship etc). They then speculate on the next move as if watching American Football or Chess. They are then not much more involved in it since it does not impact their day to day life directly. Increased food prices and similar things does impact them but the connection is too long to make for most people.
Most people outside of Russia and Ukraine has too low interest to know which units are stationed where, the quality of those units and so on. Thus any analysis of war progress is on a high level, we simply are not willing to spend the time to do proper analysis.
Overall the progress of the war can be summed up in more Russians and land equipment dying than Ukrainian ones. Russia hitting whatever they like with Cruise Missiles, might take a few tries at worst. Production for Ukraine is higher than Russia so a long war benefits the nations supporting Ukraine or are against Russia for geopolitical reasons.
Your sports analogy is pretty on point. Especially considering the general level of discussion on sports sites and how fans of the opposite team fall on you if you say something positive about your team, especially if you are on their turf. Though if people deliberately visiting this thread on non-politics oriented website, I think they should have some interest to get in depth of the subject. It's not Reddit or Youtube, after all.
And your last paragraph is actually something worth discussing, if the discussion would be adequate and respectful from both sides.
The point of visiting this thread, that it's not Youtube or reddit. You can actually get views and discussions that are not mainstream here because it's a Starcraft forum.
Your contributions is a main part of why I visit the thread in fact because I can't read Russian telegram and other sites are cesspools.
So it's sad whenever the thread shits itself for a few pages.
Even zeo's opinions are intresting if you ignore the propaganda because he is pro Russian without having a horse in the race. And I say this despite having pretty strong convictions that are probably completly opposite.
Although the fruit post above is actually AAA+ tier and the kind of thing I wished we discussed more.
Today we got another proof that You should never trust what Russians say. Yesterday they claimed they have reppeled a drone atack on Olenegorsky Gornyak. Today we can see a videos of heavily tilted Olenegorsky Gornyak being towed inside port in Novorossiisk. They reppeled an attack with their larboard it seems, and the defense was so sucesfully that the ship now is in danger of sinking
On August 04 2023 16:16 zeo wrote: So an analysis of the first three posted answers:
@kwark - dont know what you are trying to get at with the Marshal plan angle. The US didnt build roads in Ukraine. It funded anti-government institutions and programs in a country where 5 billion dollars can pay for a lot
@0x64 - thats a cringe way of building a strawman, does this way of talking work for you in real life?
@Magic - the guy 'done with me' seems to have a new fixation with my posts after his Hitler episodes. I look to spend as much time on Russia as you spend on Ukraine, balance in all things is key. I really hope you will start talking more about the problems inside Ukraine so I dont have to be the one to do it and I can shift focus to Russia.
All in all at least Kwark tried to shift the goalposts and add something, the only non-shitpost of the three
Are you taking time from your family to argue on the internet about how good is the russian war?
Nope, very slow at work this week.
Fresh fruits are being pushed into Poland from Ukraine at dumping prices, say Serbs and Poles were selling raspberries at 3-4eur per kg. Now some coldstores around Lublin are reexporting Ukrainian raspberries at 1.2eur. Its messed up Polish and Balkan markets and the agro sector bad. Germany, UK, France all importing food much less in general, just using the UK as an example apple sales dropped off dramatically last year.
Our agro sector pivoted the goods that couldnt be sold to the EU to Russia but anyones thats had contact with Russian bureaucracy knows what a pain in the ass working with Russia is. Plus all of the EU entities trying to create phantom companies here to reexport things to the RU market as Serbian making everything more difficult.
You cant blame the German companies for buying cheaper raw materials so they dont have to raise their prices but these goods have no origin and who knows where they came from and what standards were implemented. It will all probably dry up with poor harvests in Ukraine but it will take a long time for the markets to heal. Fresh food prices are going to skyrocket thats all i know, we are all in for some rough times.
Not arguing on anything else that is written, just a note that I believe UK comparisons vs prior years at this stage are not as accurate as we would wish, as you have to factor in the Brexit effect.
On August 04 2023 16:16 zeo wrote: So an analysis of the first three posted answers:
@kwark - dont know what you are trying to get at with the Marshal plan angle. The US didnt build roads in Ukraine. It funded anti-government institutions and programs in a country where 5 billion dollars can pay for a lot
@0x64 - thats a cringe way of building a strawman, does this way of talking work for you in real life?
@Magic - the guy 'done with me' seems to have a new fixation with my posts after his Hitler episodes. I look to spend as much time on Russia as you spend on Ukraine, balance in all things is key. I really hope you will start talking more about the problems inside Ukraine so I dont have to be the one to do it and I can shift focus to Russia.
All in all at least Kwark tried to shift the goalposts and add something, the only non-shitpost of the three
Are you taking time from your family to argue on the internet about how good is the russian war?
Nope, very slow at work this week.
Fresh fruits are being pushed into Poland from Ukraine at dumping prices, say Serbs and Poles were selling raspberries at 3-4eur per kg. Now some coldstores around Lublin are reexporting Ukrainian raspberries at 1.2eur. Its messed up Polish and Balkan markets and the agro sector bad. Germany, UK, France all importing food much less in general, just using the UK as an example apple sales dropped off dramatically last year.
Our agro sector pivoted the goods that couldnt be sold to the EU to Russia but anyones thats had contact with Russian bureaucracy knows what a pain in the ass working with Russia is. Plus all of the EU entities trying to create phantom companies here to reexport things to the RU market as Serbian making everything more difficult.
You cant blame the German companies for buying cheaper raw materials so they dont have to raise their prices but these goods have no origin and who knows where they came from and what standards were implemented. It will all probably dry up with poor harvests in Ukraine but it will take a long time for the markets to heal. Fresh food prices are going to skyrocket thats all i know, we are all in for some rough times.
Not arguing on anything else that is written, just a note that I believe UK comparisons vs prior years at this stage are not as accurate as we would wish, as you have to factor in the Brexit effect.
Serbia-UK trade picked up a lot after Brexit. We are relatively close non-EU country with a bilateral trade deal that can offer the same kinds of perishable goods EU countries can (with different tarifs and lighter regulations). I mean its not something that can be explained in a paragraph but you get the picture.
At least the buyers in the UK we've dealt with (large supermarket chains/distributers) just don't want to import apples from anywhere at any prices because no one is buying them (compaired to previous years). They want goods basically for free or its not worth it for them. And they cant raise prices because it will bomb sales even more. Why? Inflation, energy prices, cost of living? Anyones guess is as good as mine.
Fruit sales were massive during the pandemic all over, everyone wanted to eat healthy. Now its not seen as so important generally speaking. What other effect Brexit had on society and purchasing power in the UK... Again, interesting subject but too wide to tackle in this context.
We've talked earlier about how we can tell how a war is going. It's by no means easy, as meter by meter advancement doesn't necessarily paint the clearest pictures. But here's a pretty good indicator:
On August 04 2023 00:00 KwarK wrote: There is no reasonable discussion to be had on who the bad guy is. This is a WW2 remix and Putin is playing the part of Hitler.
"Something similar" referred to info about boots on the ground, actual frontline action, close rear etc., like the video Excludos had initially brought. Not about philosophical "good vs evil" arguments you had for the last 15 pages.
There’s an awful lot of fog of war involved and the actual fighting at the moment is largely small scale. In terms of the men dying both sides could sustain this forever. Frontline action news on a daily scale is “no news”.
The reason it gets called out as propaganda is because zeo’s triumphalist “some Ukrainian tanks were blown up crossing a minefield” is a trifecta of 1. Not news 2. Not unknown to anyone already 3. Not important.
This war is, by historical standards, being fought on a relatively small scale. Were this WW1 we would see about 2m men on either side. It will not be won by large maneuvers of infantry pushing through. The one instance we’ve seen of that, the Kharkiv counteroffensive, was a fairly small Ukrainian force pushing through a non existent Russian force. That will not be repeated. The combination of anti air, anti tank mines, artillery combined with drone spotting, and ATGMs has created a situation that forces low intensity warfare because concentrations of forces just results in being punished by missile strikes.
It will be won by exhaustion, either of Russia which is rapidly spending its Soviet inheritance or Ukraine which is dependent on a politically unreliable United States. In that context zeo’s gloating over the death of every Ukrainian patriot or the slow progress of the war, a war in which Ukrainian children are murdered daily, is frustrating. It rankles people to see gloating over the loss of brave men fighting to preserve their families against a genocidal enemy.
Of course people on the Ukrainian side also celebrate Russian failures, even though killing another 200 men in a HIMARS strike ultimately changes little. But the key difference is that those are invaders fighting on the pro genocide pro killing children side. Their death is worth celebrating. It gets us that little bit closer to the moment when missiles stop hitting school playgrounds. And that gets us straight back to the ideological issues. The difference between zeo gloating that Ukrainian patriots have died fighting in the invaders, even though it’s not relevant, and everyone else celebrating a strike on Russian troops is that one side is good and the other evil.
Last year you were claiming Ukraine was going to reach Mariupol before the end of 2022. Now you say that it will take ages. I thought that referendums were made to allow the use of conscripts extensively, but no, they are used only on the northern border, not in the active war zone. A lot of people in this thread had high hopes for swift UA counteroffensive, cutting the land bridge to Crimea, etc. but today is two months since it started, and AFU current progress is few kilometers at best.
My point is - war is changing, tactics and strategy are changing, means to conduct a war, political and economical situation within both sides and around the globe etc. etc. are changing, making our previous perception and predictions wrong. I consider it worth discussing, as well as some people in this thread. But it quickly gets drowned in "Kremlin propaganda!", "you are nazis", "I hope Ruskies would suffer" etc.
I mean, if that what current active posters want to do all the time, celebrate dead Ruskies, predict what doom awaits Russia and confirm your higher moral standing - it's your right. Though it seems that it upsets other posters a bit, even the Western one. This thread used to have good and thoughtful discussions, in which I've gladly participated. But I guess war radicalize people, even on the other side of the globe.
I don’t recall predicting an immediate end in 2022, though it’s not impossible and had Russia not mobilized following the loss of Kharkiv it may even have been likely. Got a quote for that? Either way though, things change. Putin could have gone either way after Kharkiv.
There’s a lot of fog of war with the low level stuff and things that just don’t make a whole lot of sense. Conflicting reports everywhere. The war isn’t fought at a speed that satisfies our attention span and so every hamlet becomes a major achievement.
I don’t hate on all Russians, just the Nazi ones. There do seem to be an awful lot of them though. That’s not the fault of the good ones, just as the emergence of American fascism isn’t my fault. But it is their responsibility to do something about it.
On August 04 2023 00:00 KwarK wrote: There is no reasonable discussion to be had on who the bad guy is. This is a WW2 remix and Putin is playing the part of Hitler.
"Something similar" referred to info about boots on the ground, actual frontline action, close rear etc., like the video Excludos had initially brought. Not about philosophical "good vs evil" arguments you had for the last 15 pages.
There’s an awful lot of fog of war involved and the actual fighting at the moment is largely small scale. In terms of the men dying both sides could sustain this forever. Frontline action news on a daily scale is “no news”.
The reason it gets called out as propaganda is because zeo’s triumphalist “some Ukrainian tanks were blown up crossing a minefield” is a trifecta of 1. Not news 2. Not unknown to anyone already 3. Not important.
This war is, by historical standards, being fought on a relatively small scale. Were this WW1 we would see about 2m men on either side. It will not be won by large maneuvers of infantry pushing through. The one instance we’ve seen of that, the Kharkiv counteroffensive, was a fairly small Ukrainian force pushing through a non existent Russian force. That will not be repeated. The combination of anti air, anti tank mines, artillery combined with drone spotting, and ATGMs has created a situation that forces low intensity warfare because concentrations of forces just results in being punished by missile strikes.
It will be won by exhaustion, either of Russia which is rapidly spending its Soviet inheritance or Ukraine which is dependent on a politically unreliable United States. In that context zeo’s gloating over the death of every Ukrainian patriot or the slow progress of the war, a war in which Ukrainian children are murdered daily, is frustrating. It rankles people to see gloating over the loss of brave men fighting to preserve their families against a genocidal enemy.
Of course people on the Ukrainian side also celebrate Russian failures, even though killing another 200 men in a HIMARS strike ultimately changes little. But the key difference is that those are invaders fighting on the pro genocide pro killing children side. Their death is worth celebrating. It gets us that little bit closer to the moment when missiles stop hitting school playgrounds. And that gets us straight back to the ideological issues. The difference between zeo gloating that Ukrainian patriots have died fighting in the invaders, even though it’s not relevant, and everyone else celebrating a strike on Russian troops is that one side is good and the other evil.
Last year you were claiming Ukraine was going to reach Mariupol before the end of 2022. Now you say that it will take ages. I thought that referendums were made to allow the use of conscripts extensively, but no, they are used only on the northern border, not in the active war zone. A lot of people in this thread had high hopes for swift UA counteroffensive, cutting the land bridge to Crimea, etc. but today is two months since it started, and AFU current progress is few kilometers at best.
My point is - war is changing, tactics and strategy are changing, means to conduct a war, political and economical situation within both sides and around the globe etc. etc. are changing, making our previous perception and predictions wrong. I consider it worth discussing, as well as some people in this thread. But it quickly gets drowned in "Kremlin propaganda!", "you are nazis", "I hope Ruskies would suffer" etc.
I mean, if that what current active posters want to do all the time, celebrate dead Ruskies, predict what doom awaits Russia and confirm your higher moral standing - it's your right. Though it seems that it upsets other posters a bit, even the Western one. This thread used to have good and thoughtful discussions, in which I've gladly participated. But I guess war radicalize people, even on the other side of the globe.
I don’t recall predicting an immediate end in 2022, though it’s not impossible and had Russia not mobilized following the loss of Kharkiv it may even have been likely. Got a quote for that? Either way though, things change. Putin could have gone either way after Kharkiv.
There’s a lot of fog of war with the low level stuff and things that just don’t make a whole lot of sense. Conflicting reports everywhere. The war isn’t fought at a speed that satisfies our attention span and so every hamlet becomes a major achievement.
I don’t hate on all Russians, just the Nazi ones. There do seem to be an awful lot of them though. That’s not the fault of the good ones, just as the emergence of American fascism isn’t my fault. But it is their responsibility to do something about it.
Yes, and actually it was before Khrarkov offensive.
On August 04 2023 00:00 KwarK wrote: There is no reasonable discussion to be had on who the bad guy is. This is a WW2 remix and Putin is playing the part of Hitler.
"Something similar" referred to info about boots on the ground, actual frontline action, close rear etc., like the video Excludos had initially brought. Not about philosophical "good vs evil" arguments you had for the last 15 pages.
There’s an awful lot of fog of war involved and the actual fighting at the moment is largely small scale. In terms of the men dying both sides could sustain this forever. Frontline action news on a daily scale is “no news”.
The reason it gets called out as propaganda is because zeo’s triumphalist “some Ukrainian tanks were blown up crossing a minefield” is a trifecta of 1. Not news 2. Not unknown to anyone already 3. Not important.
This war is, by historical standards, being fought on a relatively small scale. Were this WW1 we would see about 2m men on either side. It will not be won by large maneuvers of infantry pushing through. The one instance we’ve seen of that, the Kharkiv counteroffensive, was a fairly small Ukrainian force pushing through a non existent Russian force. That will not be repeated. The combination of anti air, anti tank mines, artillery combined with drone spotting, and ATGMs has created a situation that forces low intensity warfare because concentrations of forces just results in being punished by missile strikes.
It will be won by exhaustion, either of Russia which is rapidly spending its Soviet inheritance or Ukraine which is dependent on a politically unreliable United States. In that context zeo’s gloating over the death of every Ukrainian patriot or the slow progress of the war, a war in which Ukrainian children are murdered daily, is frustrating. It rankles people to see gloating over the loss of brave men fighting to preserve their families against a genocidal enemy.
Of course people on the Ukrainian side also celebrate Russian failures, even though killing another 200 men in a HIMARS strike ultimately changes little. But the key difference is that those are invaders fighting on the pro genocide pro killing children side. Their death is worth celebrating. It gets us that little bit closer to the moment when missiles stop hitting school playgrounds. And that gets us straight back to the ideological issues. The difference between zeo gloating that Ukrainian patriots have died fighting in the invaders, even though it’s not relevant, and everyone else celebrating a strike on Russian troops is that one side is good and the other evil.
Last year you were claiming Ukraine was going to reach Mariupol before the end of 2022. Now you say that it will take ages. I thought that referendums were made to allow the use of conscripts extensively, but no, they are used only on the northern border, not in the active war zone. A lot of people in this thread had high hopes for swift UA counteroffensive, cutting the land bridge to Crimea, etc. but today is two months since it started, and AFU current progress is few kilometers at best.
My point is - war is changing, tactics and strategy are changing, means to conduct a war, political and economical situation within both sides and around the globe etc. etc. are changing, making our previous perception and predictions wrong. I consider it worth discussing, as well as some people in this thread. But it quickly gets drowned in "Kremlin propaganda!", "you are nazis", "I hope Ruskies would suffer" etc.
I mean, if that what current active posters want to do all the time, celebrate dead Ruskies, predict what doom awaits Russia and confirm your higher moral standing - it's your right. Though it seems that it upsets other posters a bit, even the Western one. This thread used to have good and thoughtful discussions, in which I've gladly participated. But I guess war radicalize people, even on the other side of the globe.
I don’t recall predicting an immediate end in 2022, though it’s not impossible and had Russia not mobilized following the loss of Kharkiv it may even have been likely. Got a quote for that? Either way though, things change. Putin could have gone either way after Kharkiv.
There’s a lot of fog of war with the low level stuff and things that just don’t make a whole lot of sense. Conflicting reports everywhere. The war isn’t fought at a speed that satisfies our attention span and so every hamlet becomes a major achievement.
I don’t hate on all Russians, just the Nazi ones. There do seem to be an awful lot of them though. That’s not the fault of the good ones, just as the emergence of American fascism isn’t my fault. But it is their responsibility to do something about it.
On May 21 2022 05:13 Ardias wrote: Battle of Mariupol is over, all remnants of "Azov" and 36th Naval Infantry brigade have surrendered.
Correction, first battle of Mariupol. There'll be another before the year is done.
I remember how outlandish this statement was back then though I thought it was Ghan-whatshisname instead of you. I think he was the one that wrote something batshit insane like 100.000 civilians dieing in Mariupol or something like that
On August 04 2023 00:00 KwarK wrote: There is no reasonable discussion to be had on who the bad guy is. This is a WW2 remix and Putin is playing the part of Hitler.
"Something similar" referred to info about boots on the ground, actual frontline action, close rear etc., like the video Excludos had initially brought. Not about philosophical "good vs evil" arguments you had for the last 15 pages.
There’s an awful lot of fog of war involved and the actual fighting at the moment is largely small scale. In terms of the men dying both sides could sustain this forever. Frontline action news on a daily scale is “no news”.
The reason it gets called out as propaganda is because zeo’s triumphalist “some Ukrainian tanks were blown up crossing a minefield” is a trifecta of 1. Not news 2. Not unknown to anyone already 3. Not important.
This war is, by historical standards, being fought on a relatively small scale. Were this WW1 we would see about 2m men on either side. It will not be won by large maneuvers of infantry pushing through. The one instance we’ve seen of that, the Kharkiv counteroffensive, was a fairly small Ukrainian force pushing through a non existent Russian force. That will not be repeated. The combination of anti air, anti tank mines, artillery combined with drone spotting, and ATGMs has created a situation that forces low intensity warfare because concentrations of forces just results in being punished by missile strikes.
It will be won by exhaustion, either of Russia which is rapidly spending its Soviet inheritance or Ukraine which is dependent on a politically unreliable United States. In that context zeo’s gloating over the death of every Ukrainian patriot or the slow progress of the war, a war in which Ukrainian children are murdered daily, is frustrating. It rankles people to see gloating over the loss of brave men fighting to preserve their families against a genocidal enemy.
Of course people on the Ukrainian side also celebrate Russian failures, even though killing another 200 men in a HIMARS strike ultimately changes little. But the key difference is that those are invaders fighting on the pro genocide pro killing children side. Their death is worth celebrating. It gets us that little bit closer to the moment when missiles stop hitting school playgrounds. And that gets us straight back to the ideological issues. The difference between zeo gloating that Ukrainian patriots have died fighting in the invaders, even though it’s not relevant, and everyone else celebrating a strike on Russian troops is that one side is good and the other evil.
Last year you were claiming Ukraine was going to reach Mariupol before the end of 2022. Now you say that it will take ages. I thought that referendums were made to allow the use of conscripts extensively, but no, they are used only on the northern border, not in the active war zone. A lot of people in this thread had high hopes for swift UA counteroffensive, cutting the land bridge to Crimea, etc. but today is two months since it started, and AFU current progress is few kilometers at best.
My point is - war is changing, tactics and strategy are changing, means to conduct a war, political and economical situation within both sides and around the globe etc. etc. are changing, making our previous perception and predictions wrong. I consider it worth discussing, as well as some people in this thread. But it quickly gets drowned in "Kremlin propaganda!", "you are nazis", "I hope Ruskies would suffer" etc.
I mean, if that what current active posters want to do all the time, celebrate dead Ruskies, predict what doom awaits Russia and confirm your higher moral standing - it's your right. Though it seems that it upsets other posters a bit, even the Western one. This thread used to have good and thoughtful discussions, in which I've gladly participated. But I guess war radicalize people, even on the other side of the globe.
I don’t recall predicting an immediate end in 2022, though it’s not impossible and had Russia not mobilized following the loss of Kharkiv it may even have been likely. Got a quote for that? Either way though, things change. Putin could have gone either way after Kharkiv.
There’s a lot of fog of war with the low level stuff and things that just don’t make a whole lot of sense. Conflicting reports everywhere. The war isn’t fought at a speed that satisfies our attention span and so every hamlet becomes a major achievement.
I don’t hate on all Russians, just the Nazi ones. There do seem to be an awful lot of them though. That’s not the fault of the good ones, just as the emergence of American fascism isn’t my fault. But it is their responsibility to do something about it.
Yes, and actually it was before Khrarkov offensive.
On May 21 2022 05:13 Ardias wrote: Battle of Mariupol is over, all remnants of "Azov" and 36th Naval Infantry brigade have surrendered.
Correction, first battle of Mariupol. There'll be another before the year is done.
Fog of war isn't a reason not to discuss things, I believe. On the contrary, it is more the reason for conversation with a purpose to pierce said fog.
Good find. FYI my point with Kharkiv was that Russia’s blitzkrieg lines were going to collapse somewhere, they weren’t going to be able to hold all their gains with the troops originally allocated to the SMO. It happened that they collapsed in the Kharkiv area, not the south, but it still happened. Unfortunately Putin opted to double down after the failure of the SMO’s rush on Kyiv and so the war continues. Circumstances change and predictions must change with them.
Unless one of us has access to non public info I don’t see us piercing the fog by exchanging our ignorance. Two disagreeing uninformed opinions don’t equal information.
@Ardias @zeo, would you guys say this video is an accurate representation of the current situation on the frontlines from your guys perspectives?
It's interesting, if everything here is true, that this could be interpreted by the pro-Ukranian side as things going as best as they can with limited resources they have and a potential breakthrough still being possible by the end of the year. And by the pro-Russian side it is viewed as an abject failure of the summer counter-offensive. Glass half-full, half-empty kind of thing I guess.
Well watching that video I would say things are going very differently than what I thought.
As someone who is not following the situation actively and just getting a few newsflashes here and there and reading this thread, the picture painted in that video is miles worse than the one I had before, going by this thread alone.
On August 04 2023 22:33 2Pacalypse- wrote: @Ardias @zeo, would you guys say this video is an accurate representation of the current situation on the frontlines from your guys perspectives?
It's interesting, if everything here is true, that this could be interpreted by the pro-Ukranian side as things going as best as they can with limited resources they have and a potential breakthrough still being possible by the end of the year. And by the pro-Russian side it is viewed as an abject failure of the summer counter-offensive. Glass half-full, half-empty kind of thing I guess.
I would say that this is not a good sign and AFU offensive is definetly lagging behind schedule and expend a lot more forces that was planned. It is one thing to create breakthrough, you need sufficient forces to exploit it. AFU did this in Balakleya with like 5-6 brigades, around 30 000 men with all support elements included. But back then they didn't have to break through anything, there were barely any Russian troops in the area and deep beyond it. Now there are both in the area of the offensive, and while AFU are using around 25 brigades in the Zaporozhie area alone (about 1/4 of their fighting force), they still aren't able to achieve the said breakthrough yet, much less exploit it. I'm not saying Russia isn't paying its toll, but need to rotate forces which are still trying to punch through a defence line is a sign of the first attempts being clearly unsuccessful.
Also Russian offensive in the north towards Oskol plays its part. That's where brigade with CV90 had to be sent, and I think it initially supposed to also take part in the offensive, as most of the western stuff went there. So AFU seemingly had to close the gaps with some of the southern reserves, also weakening offensives' punch.
I quess, maybe in the grand scheme it could matter, but not in foreseeable future. Like 3 year plus, or even 5. If this 'election' goes 'wrong', maybe people start to gather and make their opinions voiced over time. Lots of maybes.
EPT
