EPTNSFW obviously.
+ Show Spoiler +
A French company has been caught supplying Russia under the guise of Humanitarian aid...
Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 383
| Forum Index > General Forum |
NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets. Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source. | ||
|
{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
NSFW obviously. + Show Spoiler + A French company has been caught supplying Russia under the guise of Humanitarian aid... | ||
|
Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
On February 18 2023 03:47 Amui wrote: They have satellites and drones for recon, and it's extremely difficult to spot things on the ground flying 500kph 250ft off the ground. Until they can fly higher and slower with impunity, they won't be doing recon, especially since the F-16 is a single seater. Neither side has the ability to clear airspace to fly in at the moment. The F-16 does have the ability to carry HARMs, decoys, and AMRAAMs though, which would eventually allow them to clear both the airspace and SAMs, but they would definitely lose pilots and airframes doing it, every one of which will hurt with only 30-40 planes. While I have no doubt USAF could clear and get the 20000+ft envelope open (out of MANPADS range) in a matter of days, Ukraine doesn't have a trillion+ dollar airforce to work with. F-16's do have the ability to carry AGM-65's and other air to ground goodies though, so if they can eventually get air control, CAS missions will definitely help a ton. Ukraine's previous offensives worked because the Russian troops were stretched thin in Kharkiv and boxed in by the Dnipro in Kherson, and also because at that time Russian command was underestimating Ukraine's capabilities or just generally underprepared for their offensive potential. All of that is no longer the case. The front line is much more condensed, offensive potential has declined on both sides (even Putin is pulling Wagner's teeth after seeing their results), This is why the Ukrainian military must be modernized to the utmost degree, and the sooner this process starts the better. Their tanks must have air support and the fighting during the next offensive will likely be the most intense of the war so far. If they don't want to risk their aircraft this year they can just as well call off the next offensive and wait until 2024 or 2025. I mean ok, if you want to argue that that's what Ukraine should do, then I'm on board with you. I believe it's time for patience and upgrades, upgrades, upgrades. | ||
|
Gorsameth
Netherlands22051 Posts
On February 18 2023 05:18 Magic Powers wrote: Really? You think Russia has learned? Ukraine's previous offensives worked because the Russian troops were stretched thin in Kharkiv and boxed in by the Dnipro in Kherson, and also because at that time Russian command was underestimating Ukraine's capabilities or just generally underprepared for their offensive potential. All of that is no longer the case. The front line is much more condensed, offensive potential has declined on both sides (even Putin is pulling Wagner's teeth after seeing their results), This is why the Ukrainian military must be modernized to the utmost degree, and the sooner this process starts the better. Their tanks must have air support and the fighting during the next offensive will likely be the most intense of the war so far. If they don't want to risk their aircraft this year they can just as well call off the next offensive and wait until 2024 or 2025. I mean ok, if you want to argue that that's what Ukraine should do, then I'm on board with you. I believe it's time for patience and upgrades, upgrades, upgrades. Is that why their army is getting shredded running headlong into artillery, missiles, minefields and defensive positions? Their new offensive has already crashed and burned and by the time Russia stops suiciding forward their front line will likely be undermanned, underequipped and suffering from disastrous moral just as all the Western trained Ukrainian forces return to begin their offensive. And no, 'just risk the airforce' isn't how this works. Aircraft are very vulnerable to AA and trying to brute force their way through like the Russians are doing is insane. Its not for nothing Western armies do not commit air forces until they have taken out AA and established air control. Now I'm all for supplying Ukraine with a thousand cruise missiles so they can take out all the Russian AA capable of threatening any planes operating within Ukraine's borders, including those inside Russia, but I somehow doubt that is going to happen. | ||
|
Lmui
Canada6220 Posts
I don't believe that Ukraine can remove the ability of Russia to sortie - the distances are just too big, and the amount of western hardware alongside pilots required to accomplish that is too high. The russian AA missiles have ranges in excess of 100km - shooting down fighters at that range, especially since USA is probably not going to be providing the best of the stockpile is going to be difficult at best, so part 1 is already in the drain. The best that they can hope for is to deny them enough range such that other air assets like attack helicopters, or ground attack aircraft can operate at the frontline, and ground attack aircraft have a chance of being able to kill armored vehicles at the frontline or, ideally, hunt artillery behind the front if they can push 20-30km deeper. | ||
|
Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
On February 18 2023 05:56 Gorsameth wrote: Really? You think Russia has learned? Is that why their army is getting shredded running headlong into artillery, missiles, minefields and defensive positions? Their new offensive has already crashed and burned and by the time Russia stops suiciding forward their front line will likely be undermanned, underequipped and suffering from disastrous moral just as all the Western trained Ukrainian forces return to begin their offensive. And no, 'just risk the airforce' isn't how this works. Aircraft are very vulnerable to AA and trying to brute force their way through like the Russians are doing is insane. Its not for nothing Western armies do not commit air forces until they have taken out AA and established air control. Now I'm all for supplying Ukraine with a thousand cruise missiles so they can take out all the Russian AA capable of threatening any planes operating within Ukraine's borders, including those inside Russia, but I somehow doubt that is going to happen. Russia's most recent offensive has hardly begun. It's building up slowly and we can't predict what it's going to look like in the coming weeks. You should know this is true because we can't tell at which fronts exactly the offensive is even happening. I would not be able to point at a map and tell you where it's happening. To say the offensive has crashed and burned is absolutely premature. Anecdotal footage of tanks getting blown up doesn't tell us what the overall situation is, and certainly not what it's going to be. The Ukrainian troops are going to have their hands full. I don't know where this idea comes from that the Ukrainian military is somehow superior to Russia's right now, because that's how I'm reading your response. Ukraine's potential for victory lies in the far future, not the near present. That's why Zelensky is asking for so much from his allies. He listens to his commanders and they know exactly what is needed. They're not anywhere close to the target right now. That's where my frustration with the tank situation stems from, and it's why I keep saying that any talks of "too much this" or "too much that" are absolutely backwards. There is no "too much", Ukraine needs everything. They won't be receiving any active troop support, so the only way for them to be victorious is to dominate with much superior hardware on the battlefield. No disrespect to their hearts and minds, but that by itself doesn't win the war. | ||
|
Manit0u
Poland17610 Posts
On February 18 2023 06:49 Magic Powers wrote: Russia's most recent offensive has hardly begun. It's building up slowly and we can't predict what it's going to look like in the coming weeks. Well, Russia is losing 2000 men for every 90m of ground they capture. That doesn't seem like a recipe for big offensive. In other news multiple sources are now reporting that Wagner is on the back foot as Russian Army has cut off their supplies (no more recruits or ammo). This is most likely an internal political struggle (Wagner with their modern structure having successes makes the army with their outdated power structure look bad) but it is affecting the front lines. | ||
|
pmp10
3380 Posts
On February 18 2023 06:49 Magic Powers wrote: Russia's most recent offensive has hardly begun. It's building up slowly and we can't predict what it's going to look like in the coming weeks. You should know this is true because we can't tell at which fronts exactly the offensive is even happening. I would not be able to point at a map and tell you where it's happening. To say the offensive has crashed and burned is absolutely premature. But isn't it also premature to say that the offensive is even happening? If we cannot point to its location then one can argue that it simply may not exist. Or at least is no bigger than the small scale attacks launched over the last few months. There is a possible scenario where Russian won't attempt to establish war of maneuver and instead will inch slowly forward over the course of next few years. Essentially attempting to 'Syrialize' the conflict. | ||
|
Yurie
12004 Posts
On February 18 2023 20:38 pmp10 wrote: But isn't it also premature to say that the offensive is even happening? If we cannot point to its location then one can argue that it simply may not exist. Or at least is no bigger than the small scale attacks launched over the last few months. There is a possible scenario where Russian won't attempt to establish war of maneuver and instead will inch slowly forward over the course of next few years. Essentially attempting to 'Syrialize' the conflict. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Armed_Forces_casualties_in_Syria As of spring 2019, there have been 116 officially confirmed Russian Armed Forces fatalities in the war. There are more losses in some random skirmishes in this war. They are not similar in nature for Russia. | ||
|
Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
On February 18 2023 20:38 pmp10 wrote: But isn't it also premature to say that the offensive is even happening? If we cannot point to its location then one can argue that it simply may not exist. Or at least is no bigger than the small scale attacks launched over the last few months. There is a possible scenario where Russian won't attempt to establish war of maneuver and instead will inch slowly forward over the course of next few years. Essentially attempting to 'Syrialize' the conflict. Some people do believe that the offensive has begun, like Pavlo Krylenko who said so openly. But it's certainly possible that it was nothing. I think it's either building up or it's not the real offensive yet. I believe your prediction is very well possible and should be a top consideration. The war could continue for many years and some significant gains on both sides would be made relatively consistently, but nothing immediately game changing. Bigger offensives could be periodically successful, but also quite rare. Here's how the front line has shifted since Ukraine's capture of the city of Kherson on the 12th of November. Dark red is Russian gains and dark blue is Ukrainian gains. As always if someone finds an error please feel free to point it out. ![[image loading]](https://abload.de/img/overlay-karte12.novem8jelg.png) The majority of the war has been going like this. Both sides making consistent gains in specific regions over a long period of time. I can say that the hyper focus on Bakhmut is in large part political and not exclusively strategic. Zaporizhzhia is where the majority of movement has been happening. Kherson has also seen Ukrainian progress. I believe they're using Bakhmut as a distraction. My guess is that Ukraine ideally wants to cut through Zaporizhzhia and then begin a grand encirclement in the South. | ||
|
JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
| ||
|
{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
| ||
|
Sent.
Poland9268 Posts
| ||
|
Manit0u
Poland17610 Posts
On the factory floor, technicians work in three shifts around the clock and are in regular contact with Ukrainians on the battlefield. They share information about best techniques for repairs over encrypted messages and a HelpDesk app that helps them to troubleshoot problems. Polish mechanics said they once used the chat application to teach a Ukrainian postman-turned-soldier to repair a missile. It seems that a large part of combat vehicle maintenance for Ukrainians is happening in Poland. Apparently Poland would also be the main support/maintenance hub for Leopards and Abramses sent to Ukraine. | ||
|
warding
Portugal2394 Posts
On February 19 2023 01:16 Manit0u wrote: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-covert-polish-repair-shop-patching-up-ukrainian-arms-11674920742 It seems that a large part of combat vehicle maintenance for Ukrainians is happening in Poland. Apparently Poland would also be the main support/maintenance hub for Leopards and Abramses sent to Ukraine. With the massive new investments announced recently (inc HIMARS systems, the tank deal with SK), i s Poland set to become the most powerful land army in Europe? | ||
|
Sent.
Poland9268 Posts
| ||
|
pmp10
3380 Posts
On February 18 2023 21:53 Yurie wrote: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Armed_Forces_casualties_in_Syria There are more losses in some random skirmishes in this war. They are not similar in nature for Russia. Sure, but that doesn't mean it is unsustainable for Russia. There is a lot of speculation about the future level of intensity and a long lukewarm war might just be doable. I'm also not convinced they are as concerned about losses as the west is. On February 19 2023 01:48 warding wrote: With the massive new investments announced recently (inc HIMARS systems, the tank deal with SK), i s Poland set to become the most powerful land army in Europe? Only on paper. In practice Poland cannot raise manning levels for the army it already has much less expand it by half as it boasts. Add to that sizable donations to Ukraine, nonsensical rearming decisions and Poland has no chance of an effective fighting force within a decade. | ||
|
warding
Portugal2394 Posts
On February 19 2023 02:03 Sent. wrote: Turkey and France will probably remain stronger. I'm sure they have their own investments. According to Wikipedia, France has 118k active personnel and 222 Leclercs (+180 in storage). Poland is set to increase to 250k personnel and has ordered 366 Abrams and 1000 K2. https://twitter.com/d_foubert/status/1626588911685484547?s=20 Don't think Turkey qualifies as a European land army. | ||
|
mahrgell
Germany3943 Posts
On February 19 2023 02:24 warding wrote: According to Wikipedia, France has 118k active personnel and 222 Leclercs (+180 in storage). Poland is set to increase to 250k personnel and has ordered 366 Abrams and 1000 K2. https://twitter.com/d_foubert/status/1626588911685484547?s=20 Don't think Turkey qualifies as a European land army. Then look at Greece if you don't count Turkey. Also taking a paper tank army, that is to be delivered over the next 2 decades and comparing it to the actual army is quite a weird comparison... | ||
|
Manit0u
Poland17610 Posts
My own military service was cut short due to health issues but during the 3 months I was there I've held my rifle once and fired it exactly 0 times. | ||
|
warding
Portugal2394 Posts
On February 19 2023 02:34 mahrgell wrote: Then look at Greece if you don't count Turkey. Also taking a paper tank army, that is to be delivered over the next 2 decades and comparing it to the actual army is quite a weird comparison... Happy to be pointed toward any data indicating other European countries planning to scale at a similar pace. Which is arguably what we should all be doing. Greece has a lot of very old ones and no chance to keep up with a Poland growing economically and spending 3+% in its military. @Manitou to what extent to you think knowledge and experience that Ukrainians are accumulating with this was will spillover westwards? Militaries tend to become complacent over time but there's nothing like an existential threat next door as an incentive. (Speaking of peacetime complacency, Portugal has 26k personnel in the armed forces and a whopping 110 Generals in active duty+90 in reserve). | ||
| ||
