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On February 09 2023 23:57 JimmiC wrote: It seems strange to have regular Russian forces, wagner, and the various republic armies all fighting together but also fighting for reasources and pwrsonal glory. All under one command might work better. That being said there seems to be massive amounts of disfunction and corruption under the main forces so it might very well get worse as suggested.
Sure, that would be better for Russia, but it wouldn't be better for Putin. One big military runs the danger of having competent people who get popular in place, then they could decide that they should rule Russia instead of Putin.
If you have 3+ different militaries in one country, who are openly in conflict with each other, you greatly reduce the chances of that happening. Nazi Germany in WW2 also had massive inter-service rivalry, and two conflicting armies with the Wehrmacht and the Waffen-SS. Much safer for the leader.
So it appears Gazprom has been given the green light to create it's own Private security force.
Russian majority state-owned energy company Gazprom has been authorized to create its own private security outfit, in a move that Ukrainian intelligence says is part of a war-fueled "arms race" to develop a mercenary army.
Russia's government gave its go-ahead for the energy giant to create a private security organization on February 4, under the pretext of securing the country's energy sector.
The decree gives Gazprom 70% control of the resulting company, per Ukrainska Pravda's translation.
Commenting on Tuesday, Ukraine's Ministry of Defence intelligence department said that the move signals intent to mimic the Wagner Group, the notoriously cruel mercenary army run by ally of President Vladimir Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin.
The Wagner Group has been a major player as a Russian proxy in Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
Gazprom did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment.
Private military companies (PMCs) are technically outlawed in Russia, with the Russian government's decree authorizing a conventional security company — the kind that any major company would conceivably use to protect its sites.
Nonetheless, experts told Insider that it's possible another Wagner-like mercenary army is in the works, as a means to leverage Gazprom's vast riches in the direction of international conflicts.
"The timing is obviously curious," Dale Buckner, CEO of security firm Global Guardian, told Insider. "Following the Wagner template, everyone's drawing conclusions that there might be a tie there — which is probably a very good assumption at this point."
Stepan Stepanenko, research fellow at the UK security think tank The Henry Jackson Society, told Insider it was "entirely plausible" that the Gazprom outfit could operate as a PMC.
If the new entity does operate as a PMC, we can be "certain" that "Putin is behind it, or at the very least approved it, and it will have support from the army," Stepanenko added.
Wagner — which has been designated a "transnational criminal organization" by the US — apparently operates with no legal backing other than Putin's personal say-so.
The murky legal situation makes Russian PMCs particularly difficult to track.
Gazprom's CEO, Alexei Miller, is considered among Russia's super-elite class of silovarchs — olicharchs with exceptional connections to Putin, as Insider's Sam Tabahriti previously reported.
But Stepanenko said that even if the Gazprom entity does begin to operate as a PMC, the decree "is not a clear-cut move to Gazprom's direct involvement in Ukraine."
To fight in Ukraine, Gazprom's would-be combatants would have to compete with the conventional army and Wagner, while production and logistics are already stretched, he said.
"While the financial muscle of Gazprom is sufficiently large, it is not a bottomless pit of cash," he added.
Training an elite mercenary also takes years, the use of state-supported facilities, and a lot more men, Buckner said, pointing out that Prigozhin had already resorted to recruiting troops from Russian penal colonies.
"Why would it be any easier for Gazprom to recruit?" Buckner asked.
Noting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's recent visits to multiple African countries, Stepanenko suggested that the Gazprom move could be connected to sending Russians to countries like those.
"Should Ukraine be worried? No," he added. "Ukrainians are handling Wagner, they are handling the Russian army."
The thing with PMCs (and why they're outlawed in most countries) is that their sole existence undermines the country. After all, the definition of a country is to have monopoly on violence within its territory.
I'm not sure if having more PMCs can benefit Russia. It's a bit too much akin to situation within many African or middle-eastern countries, where you have competing warlords.
I watched this yesterday. Have a look if you're interested. Basically, even if you have followed events since Crimea (2014), it's still interesting to learn how uncomfortable Putin became with future expansion of NATO. How different presidents thought they could handle him, eventually he showed his true colours. And, in case it wasn't obvious, what a puppet Trump was. Putin's miscalculation was probably that Trump would have got a second term. Instead, he got Biden and here we're now.
Update on Wagner which will stop recruitment, casualty rates for the PMC has been over 80% in some instances. Sounds like parents were starting to spread anti-war sentiment on learning their sons, although convicted, were being killed off wholesale. Thus the MoD has announced changes.
On February 10 2023 05:16 plasmidghost wrote: On Bakhmut, things keep getting worse. At the moment, Ukraine still has control of the T0504 road going to SW Bakhmut but heavy fights are occurring for it. If that road falls, Russia most likely prevents any form of reinforcement or escape to Bakhmut
There are other smaller roads out. Of course if you cut the main roads Ukraine will probably start withdrawing but I don't think it will end with complete entrapment.
On February 10 2023 06:38 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Update on Wagner which will stop recruitment, casualty rates for the PMC has been over 80% in some instances. Sounds like parents were starting to spread anti-war sentiment on learning their sons, although convicted, were being killed off wholesale. Thus the MoD has announced changes.
I note a "we are not going to execute you" but a distinct lack of "we are not going to send you running towards machine guns with no hope of victory"
I question whether the MoD will have more success in finding volunteers now that Wagner has shown how little their lives are worth.
Now we're seeing the fallout start from all of Zelensky's visits, I will say that Zelensky could, in the very near future, play as a peace maker and visit Rome. Which a major offensive on the horizon every avenue of support should be maintained.
Even though they talked on the sidelines apparently at the EU conference.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has criticised France and Germany after she was not invited to a dinner in Paris with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, adding to friction between the European Union allies.
Zelenskyy started a surprise visit to Western Europe on Wednesday with a visit to the United Kingdom and then to France, where he had a late dinner with Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz before an EU summit on Thursday.
But unlike last year, when the then-Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi worked hand-in-hand with Macron and Scholz on Ukraine, Meloni was left out in the cold.
Speaking to reporters as she arrived at the Brussels summit on Thursday, Meloni, who took office last October, said she thought the snub was “inappropriate”.
“I think our strength in this fight is unity,” she added.
She later met Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the EU meeting.
Asked about her comments, Macron said he thought Wednesday’s dinner had been fitting.
“As you know, Germany and France have had a special role on the Ukraine question for eight years,” he told reporters, referring to joint mediation by the two countries that tried, and failed, to prevent conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
However, things were different when Draghi, a former president of the European Central Bank, was prime minister. Draghi travelled with Macron and Scholz to Kyiv by train last June and played a leading role with them in shaping EU opposition to Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.
Meloni has pledged to maintain the same pro-Ukraine stance, despite the misgivings of some of her coalition allies, telling reporters on Thursday that providing help to Kyiv was the best way to bring about peace.
Underscoring her willingness to support Kyiv, Italy and France finalised technical talks last week for the joint delivery of a SAMP/T-MAMBA air defence system to Ukraine early this year.
However, Meloni’s brand of nationalist politics has put her at odds with both Macron and Scholz on an array of other issues and the close ties that Draghi forged with Paris and Berlin seem a distant memory.
Paris last November accused Meloni’s new government of breaking a bond of trust and breaching international laws by refusing to take in refugees and migrants saved by a charity rescue ship. The boat eventually docked in France instead.
Earlier this week, French and German ministers flew to Washington together to discuss contested US subsidies with their US counterparts, excluding Italy, which is the second-largest manufacturer in the European Union after Germany.
EPT
