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On February 04 2023 01:38 Magic Powers wrote: Only the military sector of the US would benefit from a protracted war in Ukraine. The economic sector, which, in its totality, is far greater than the military sector, would lose out. Shell wanted to invest into Ukraine and pulled out because of the threat of an invasion by Russia. Such investments can only begin after the war has ended. The US has absolutely no reason to prefer a continuation of the war.
No one benefits from wars except expansionists and Russia is expansionist in nature for sure. Bigger Russia with expansionist mindset means more security threat (reminder: 1944). So while I acknowledge war is evil and complete waste of lives, I think it needs to go on until Ukraine's sovereignty is restored and peace in EU is restored in consequence, I believe this is our own mutual interest in EU. I guess some of these points coincide with US interests, at the very least because we're allies. If not for their ally, Europe, at least the outcome of weaker adversary that is Russia due to war.
On February 04 2023 01:38 Magic Powers wrote: Only the military sector of the US would benefit from a protracted war in Ukraine. The economic sector, which, in its totality, is far greater than the military sector, would lose out. Shell wanted to invest into Ukraine and pulled out because of the threat of an invasion by Russia. Such investments can only begin after the war has ended. The US has absolutely no reason to prefer a continuation of the war.
No one benefits from wars except expansionists and Russia is expansionist in nature for sure. Bigger Russia with expansionist mindset means more security threat (reminder: 1944). So while I acknowledge war is evil and complete waste of lives, I think it needs to go on until Ukraine's sovereignty is restored and peace in EU is restored in consequence, I believe this is our own mutual interest in EU. I guess some of these points coincide with US interests, at the very least because we're allies. If not for their ally, Europe, at least the outcome of weaker adversary that is Russia due to war.
Yeah I certainly agree. My comment was a response to Salazarz, but I forgot to add the quote after editing my comment. The US wants the war to end sooner rather than later, but for that sake they wouldn't be willing to betray Zelensky.
A peace negotiation offer by the US is perfectly reasonable to gauge Putin's response and inform future US policy. It's very valuable to understand Putin's true goals at all times. In recent months there was some uncertainty about whether or not he was going to grab more land. Now we know for sure that his goal is to take all of Ukraine, still. So I doubt the expectation was that Putin and Zelensky would take the offer. Maybe the offer was made or maybe it wasn't, but the US has consistently signalled that their military support to Ukraine hinges mainly on the interests of Ukraine's leadership. The US is not going all the way with this. They're still following their anti-escalation policy that causes Ukraine's military to remain much weaker than it would otherwise be, despite the odds of nuclear retaliation being close to 0. That policy is in the interest of the US and the world, but not that of Zelensky (at least initially). Zelensky didn't hesitate to ask for direct military involvement to close the skies, but the US refused. The US is testing Putin's resolve in baby steps, like recently with a promise of even longer range missiles. It makes sense that they'd do the same with empty peace offers to which the response was practically already known. A secondary purpose could be to give Putin the impression that the US is not a real threat to Russia (in case his paranoia is real and not a pretense).
On the European energy crisis: my house is fully electric, with electric stoves, boiler and heating. My usual electrical bill is between 50-70€, and around 50% higher in winter. This January my electrical bill was 12€. Pretty much due to the performance of renewables this winter in Iberia.
My contract isn't regulated, meaning that what I pay each month is directly indexed to the wholesale electricity prices in Iberia.
For those who are interested in the developments at the front, this video is highly recommended. It covers not just Bakhmut but most of the front. Extremely well done video.
Update from the Bakhmut frontline. TL;DR is: The new Russian offensive has already started in Donetsk (Bakhmut, Soledar, Vuhledar, Avdiivka) with smaller offensives across the front line. The situation is still extremely difficult. Russia keeps throwing bodies with limited armored support at Bakhmut and Ukraine doesn't have many options. There's also talk about mobilization in Ukraine but I don't know the background on this. Sounds like he says to not panic about it.
Interesting story about the collapse of a band of American mercenaries in Ukraine known as the Mozart Group. Despite having been given a lauding profile in the New York Times (including a still active link to donate to them) the Mozart Group's founder has ended the Mozart Group (but is apparently looking to rebrand and get right back at it).
One of the most prominent mercenary firms operating out of the United States has collapsed under its director’s weight. Mozart Group co-founder and retired Marine Col. Andy Milburn has been involved in a series of drunken episodes both on and off camera which have led Ukrainian military officers to dub him “the crazy American.”
With tens of billions of US military aid flowing into the Ukraine conflict zone, this might be one of the best times in the history of warfare to run a mercenary group. This February 2, however, Milburn was forced to announce the closure of his company.
The mercenary group’s collapse represents a dramatic fall from grace for a 59-year-old veteran who was the subject of a fawning October 2022 profile by the New York Times as a courageous humanitarian “driven by the same pro-Ukrainian spirit that has put yellow and blue flags flying across the Western world.”
“It’s a corrupt, fucked up society,” led by “fucked up people,” Milburn said, going on to accuse Ukrainian forces of “atrocities” and killing Russian prisoners of war “who surrendered.”
“There was plenty of that,” Milburn added. ... Along with multiple allegations of directing company funds elsewhere, Milburn is also accused of “unilaterally hiring as his personal assistant” a Ukrainian woman he met on a dating site and paying her a $90,000 salary.
Yet, according to the New York Times, Milburn was not the only Mozart merc with a drinking problem or an irresistible urge to swipe right on dating apps. Many of the recruits were “grizzled combat vets who admitted to struggling with PTSD and heavy drinking. When they weren’t working, they gravitated to Kyiv’s strip clubs, bars and online dating.”
Despite his legal and personal woes, Milburn has reportedly rented an office in Kiev and plans to launch a new mercenary operation.
FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — Europe imposed a ban Sunday on Russian diesel fuel and other refined oil products, slashing energy dependency on Moscow and seeking to further crimp the Kremlin’s fossil fuel earnings as punishment for invading Ukraine.
The ban comes along with a price cap agreed by the Group of Seven allied democracies. The goal is allowing Russian diesel to keep flowing to countries like China and India and avoiding a sudden price rise that would hurt consumers worldwide, while reducing the profits funding Moscow’s budget and war.
Diesel is key for the economy because it is used to power cars, trucks carrying goods, farm equipment and factory machinery. Diesel prices have been elevated due to recovering demand after the COVID-19 pandemic and limits on refining capacity, contributing to inflation for other goods worldwide.
The new sanctions create uncertainty about prices as the 27-nation European Union finds new supplies of diesel from the U.S., Middle East and India to replace those from Russia, which at one point delivered 10% of Europe’s total diesel needs. Those are longer journeys than from Russia’s ports, stretching available tankers.
Prices also could be driven up by reviving demand from China as the economy rebounds after the end of draconian COVID-19 restrictions.
The price cap of $100 per barrel for diesel, jet fuel and gasoline is to be enforced by barring insurance and shipping services from handling diesel priced over the limit. Most of those companies are located in Western countries.
It follows a $60-per-barrel cap on Russian crude that took effect in December and is supposed to work the same way. Both the diesel and oil caps could be tightened later.
“Once we have these price caps set, we can squeeze the Russian price and deny them, deny (President Vladimir) Putin money for his war without a price spike that’s going to hurt Western economies and developing economies,” said Thomas O’Donnell, a global fellow with the Washington-based Wilson Center.
The diesel price cap will not bite immediately because it was set at about what Russian diesel trades for. Russia’s chief problem now will be finding new customers, not evading the price ceiling. However, the cap aims to prevent Russian gains from any sudden price spikes in refined oil products.
Analysts say there might be a price bump initially as markets sort out the changes. But they say the embargo should not cause a price spike if the cap works as intended and Russian diesel keeps flowing to other countries.
Diesel fuel at the pump has been flat since the start of December, costing 1.80 euros per liter ($7.37 per gallon) as of Jan. 30, according to the weekly oil market report issued by the European Union’s executive commission. Pump prices in Germany, the EU’s largest economy, fell 2.6 cents to 1.83 euros per liter ($7.48 per gallon) as of Jan. 31.
The ban provides for a 55-day grace period for diesel loaded on tankers before Sunday, a step aimed at avoiding ruffling markets. European Union officials say importers have had time to adjust since the ban was announced in June.
Russia earned more than $2 billion from diesel sales to Europe in December alone as importers appear to have stocked up with added purchases ahead of the ban.
Europe has already banned Russian coal and most crude oil, while Moscow has cut off most shipments of natural gas.
Wouldn't hold my breath on this. The system is the backbone of Israeli defense. But the pressure by the US, presumably, has to be increasing see how the US pays for it.
edit: It appears Bakhmut could fall after months of Human wave attacks, Ukraine appears to be slowly pulling out to prevent encirclement.
Should Bakhmut fall soon, which looks likely, I wonder what kind of ramifications that would have for the future in terms of logistics in Donetsk and for the offensives coming from Russia. Ukraine probably lost a lot of good troops in Bakhmut and Russia's also losing a lot of elite units in Vuhledar, so it may even out. Frustrating, though
On February 07 2023 01:53 plasmidghost wrote: Should Bakhmut fall soon, which looks likely, I wonder what kind of ramifications that would have for the future in terms of logistics in Donetsk and for the offensives coming from Russia. Ukraine probably lost a lot of good troops in Bakhmut and Russia's also losing a lot of elite units in Vuhledar, so it may even out. Frustrating, though
I don't think it would change much. Bakhmut is more of a political goal now rather than strategical one. Especially that months of shelling and fighting have pretty much reduced the city to a pile of rubble so it doesn't have much more value than empty ground. If the Ukrainians can't hold it I doubt Russians will be able to.
Updates from Vuhledar: Ukraine today destroyed approximately 30 armored vehicles, including tanks. Russia has not gained any ground.
The Russian units geolocated to be around Vuhledar are as follows: 40th Separate Marine Brigade 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade 7th OBTF (Speculated to be a Ranger unit; unconfirmed) 5th Guards Tank Brigade 39th Motor Rifle Brigade 36th Motor Rifle Brigade 14th Spetsnaz Brigade [DPR] OBTF "Cascade" 71st Motor Rifle Regiment
Ukraine's forces around Vuhledar are: 68th Jager Infantry Brigade [NG] Omega Unit 3 23rd Separate Rifle Battalion 72nd Mechanized Brigade
The three Guards units present with Spetsnaz should comprise at least a couple thousand of Russia's elite soldiers, yet they haven't taken any land whatsoever.
Also of note: The commander of the 14th Spetsnaz Brigade was killed in action on 2 February.
There's also a video of one of the Russian tanks being blown up by an anti-tank mine. Going to spoiler it because it starts with a Russian soldier on fire.
Can't attack with that few vehicles. Artillery, atgm and mines will just destroy it. For armored assults to work you need to punch hard enough so you get through, I don't think either side can do that now.
In footage excalibur rounds (or similar) seem much more common now. It makes sense because they usually seem to find lone vehicles and it doesnt give them a chance to escape and it lets the artillery scoot immediatly. Vastly superior to normal artillery for this purpose and solves a lot of problems. I wonder if production went up?
Also small suacide drones seem commonly used now. I wonder if that is a response to the small attack groups used by Wagner. Against such small teams even wounding one or two soliders matters greatly and they are out of range and carry their own EW.
Insane numbers from the Ukrainians about the loss of Russian forces yesterday. The sheer number of dead hasn't been seen since the very early stages of the war, I believe. Also a ridiculous amount of tanks and APCs lost, most of them in Vuhledar
I hope they didn't gain anything for that. Lets repeat the second half of last year. Russians attacking, not achieving anything useful, then a massive counteroffensive to push them back where they belong.
On February 07 2023 20:54 Simberto wrote: I hope they didn't gain anything for that. Lets repeat the second half of last year. Russians attacking, not achieving anything useful, then a massive counteroffensive to push them back where they belong.
Funny you should mention that. ISW and the British defence ministry still assess that a large-scale offensive is coming this month but most likely won't achieve anything notable, so a Ukrainian counteroffensive will likely result in huge gains
On February 07 2023 20:54 Simberto wrote: I hope they didn't gain anything for that. Lets repeat the second half of last year. Russians attacking, not achieving anything useful, then a massive counteroffensive to push them back where they belong.
Funny you should mention that. ISW and the British defence ministry still assess that a large-scale offensive is coming this month but most likely won't achieve anything notable, so a Ukrainian counteroffensive will likely result in huge gains
EPT
