EPTRusso-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 375
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22586 Posts
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Deleted User 173346
16169 Posts
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Deleted User 173346
16169 Posts
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Gahlo
United States35174 Posts
On February 07 2023 22:54 gobbledydook wrote: Can you explain why the failure of Russian troops to gain ground implies that the Ukrainians will? To oversimplify it, last time was overextending in RISK. Defender has an advantage and by the time the offensive wore down there wasn't sufficient coverage behind the line. | ||
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Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
Statistically speaking either side could have the advantage at this moment. It's not like Russia has been nothing but a punching bag from the start. In boxing terms they landed a few blows in the first round, they received a few blows in the second round, and the third round is about to start soon. It's important to keep the scale of things in mind. War is slow. This war is huge and it'll not be over tomorrow and likely not by the end of 2023 either. Such a projection is too unrealistic. If either side has the advantage, it can take months before it actually materializes. | ||
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Copymizer
Denmark2108 Posts
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Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
Edit: coincidentally this video just came out about that same topic | ||
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Lmui
Canada6223 Posts
Timeline is still fairly slow though - 25 by summer, and the rest between there and end of year. This is a design that was modernized in 1985ish, so it's not as competitive as the newest tanks, but it's still likely a fair match for the tanks on the battlefield now. The problem is you don't want a fair fight in war - it won't be as good as modern tanks due to the lack of truly modern optics, nevermind the firepower/armor differences. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22586 Posts
On February 08 2023 06:48 Lmui wrote: The timeline is likely slow because these tanks are not in a usable state right now. They first need to be refitted and repaired before they can be used and that takes time, especially when that process still needs to be set up.Some more hardware announcements: https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1623032551534170149 Timeline is still fairly slow though - 25 by summer, and the rest between there and end of year. This is a design that was modernized in 1985ish, so it's not as competitive as the newest tanks, but it's still likely a fair match for the tanks on the battlefield now. The problem is you don't want a fair fight in war - it won't be as good as modern tanks due to the lack of truly modern optics, nevermind the firepower/armor differences. | ||
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Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
On February 08 2023 06:48 Lmui wrote: Some more hardware announcements: https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1623032551534170149 Timeline is still fairly slow though - 25 by summer, and the rest between there and end of year. This is a design that was modernized in 1985ish, so it's not as competitive as the newest tanks, but it's still likely a fair match for the tanks on the battlefield now. The problem is you don't want a fair fight in war - it won't be as good as modern tanks due to the lack of truly modern optics, nevermind the firepower/armor differences. I'm reading the Leopard 1s will preferably not be used in direct combat, but just the same way as Ukraine's existing stock of tanks, e.g. as assistance for infantry. So these won't be a great gamechanger, but they'll likely help keep the military intact a bit better until the time comes for new and improved hardware. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17843 Posts
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Deleted User 173346
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Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
He commanded an anti-drone unit in occupied Luhansk, but had also been one of the founders of a mercenary group fighting Ukrainian forces in 2014. He took to a stage last summer holding a man's skull. In a video posted on social media in August, Mangushev was filmed saying the skull belonged to a Ukrainian fighter killed defending the Azovstal steel works in the southern port of Mariupol. An extreme nationalist, Mangushev said Russia was not at war with people, but with an idea of Ukraine as an "anti-Russian state", and it did not matter how many Ukrainians died. Mangushev emerged from a neo-Nazi movement to co-found private mercenary group Yenot (raccoon). He was later known to have collaborated with Russia's most notorious mercenary boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, as a political strategist. The shooting has prompted widespread speculation about who might have carried out the attack at a checkpoint in the occupied Ukrainian town of Kadiivka, some distance from the frontline. Russian reports said he had been shot at close range with a 9mm bullet fired from the top of his head at an angle of 45 degrees. Russian authorities are investigating the killing and have so far said nothing about the circumstances. The bullet had reportedly lodged in his brain. Before he died, pictures showed him lying in a hospital bed. Another extreme Russian nationalist, Pavel Gubarev, said everyone knew who was behind the shooting and observed that Prigozhin had for the moment gone quiet. The 11-month war in Ukraine has energised the murky world of extremists in Russia and sparked rivalries between them. After the attack, Russia expert Mark Galeotti said it demonstrated that Russia was sliding back towards aspects of the 1990s, "when murder was a business tactic, and the lines between politics, business, crime and war became near-meaningless". Source | ||
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Deleted User 173346
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KwarK
United States44295 Posts
On February 08 2023 23:55 Magic Powers wrote: So that means Bakhmut is likely going to fall earlier than was hoped or even anticipated. Is it a bad sign of things to come? Bakhmut is quite important after all. It’s been a year and it’s falling earlier than expected? Expectation must surely be never falling at all. | ||
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Deleted User 173346
16169 Posts
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Deleted User 173346
16169 Posts
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Deleted User 173346
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Nezgar
Germany535 Posts
On February 09 2023 01:01 KwarK wrote: It’s been a year and it’s falling earlier than expected? Expectation must surely be never falling at all. That's been the narrative of all the panic people in the West. At first it was "Kiev is surely going to fall, Ukraine is doomed". Then it became "Russia will advance towards the Dnipro, Ukraine is breaking apart." Later it was "With the capture of Lyman and Izyum, the Ukrainian lines are collapsing." When that didn't turn out to be true either, it was "Severodonotsk and Lysychansk are falling, this is the end of the Ukrainian army." But of course that, too, didn't turn out to be true. The line where Ukraine has been breaking under Russian pressure has been shifted almost on a monthly basis, each time further to the east. Bakhmut was supposed to fall around the same time as Lyman and Izyum, people were prepared to shift the defensive line back towards Slovyansk and Krematorsk. Bahmut was important because at the time they were still fighting over Severodonotsk and Lysychansk. That's why it was important at the time. To say that it falling now is earlier than hoped or anticipated is absolutely ridiculous and speaks to a complete lack of understanding. The only real importance of Bakhmut right now is a political one. It's an important victory for Russia domestically, but not militarily. Is this a bad sign of things to come? No. Russia still has a large military, a lot of manpower and thousands of armored vehicles. If they throw all their weight behind a certain operation, of course they can make progress. The question is always how much they are willing to pay for that progress, and whether it leaves them with enough strength to withstand the counteroffensives that will come. And the answer to that is: We'll see. | ||
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