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The picture in the video is tiny and the quality is godawful, which is often done to hide image manipulation, the visible text is odd and you can't read the smaller text, so I think it's most likely a fake.
It literally says:
1.Stań w obronie prawdziwych ziem polskich - "Stand in the defense of true Polish lands" - that "prawdziwych/true" is very odd, it sounds off, like somebody put it there just for propaganda purposes (see, Poland wants to partition Ukraine, they say it's their land!).
2. Zostań czołgistą Leopard "Become a tanker/crewman of a Leopard tank"- there is an error here, it should be "Leoparda"
3. Broń Polski w Ukrainie "Defend Poland in Ukraine" (as in "you, the polish tanker, go and defend Poland by fighting in Ukraine") - this basically says that tanks send to Ukraine will be operated by Poles.
It's either a fake or maybe someone paid for this banner to take a picture of it and imply it was an official banner? Can't imagine this being a real thing the government or army would put up.
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Yeah, the image was small so I didn't really get to see what was written there. If what was quoted above is true then it's 100% a fake. I don't think there are many people in Poland who even remember that Lviv was a part of Poland during WW2 and you don't really hear anyone making any claims to get it back.
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On February 02 2023 12:28 Ardias wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2023 11:37 Sermokala wrote:On February 02 2023 10:52 Ardias wrote:On February 02 2023 09:26 Sermokala wrote:On February 02 2023 08:53 Ardias wrote:On February 02 2023 08:37 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:Start of the war Wagner increase to around 50k personnel and now is reported to have less than ten thousand left. Stories like this doesn't appear to give much doubt to the claims... this honestly sounds like they are drugged. A Ukrainian soldier who recently had a run-in with a group of Wagner mercenaries said the fighters "didn't stop coming" during a battle in Bakhmut, Ukraine.
"We were fighting for about 10 hours in a row. And it wasn't like just waves — it was uninterrupted. So it was just like they didn't stop coming," the soldier, named Andriy, told CNN of fighting troops from the Wagner Group, a private military contractor linked to the Kremlin that consists of mercenaries and former prisoners.
He said the fight was between 20 Ukrainian soldiers and about 200 Wagner troops and described it as a "frightening and surreal experience."
Andriy detailed the ruthless nature of these fighters, comparing the battle to something out of a "zombie movie."
"They're climbing above the corpse of their friends, stepping on them," he told CNN. He even suggested that the Wagner troops might be "getting some drugs before the attack."
Andriy said their machine gunner was "almost going crazy" because he knew he was shooting at and hitting his targets, but none of the troops he hit were falling.
"He said, 'I know I shot him, but he doesn't fall,'" Andriy told CNN. "And then after some time, when he maybe bleeds out, so he just falls down."
The soldier said his group's AK-47 rifles became so hot from constantly firing at the Wagner troops that they had to keep switching out guns.
He described Wagner's attack method to CNN, saying that first, they send a group of attackers — mainly made up of recruits fresh from Russian prisons. At that point, they begin "digging into position," Andriy said.
A second group then advances to claim more land "step by step," moving forward and into position, Andriy recalled. As Wagner loses more troops and groups are exhausted, they send more as an attempt to hold their spot on the battlefield.
Eventually, Andriy's group was surrounded. "We didn't expect them to come from there," he told CNN.
"We were shooting until the last bullet, so we threw all the grenades we had and left only me and a few guys. We were helpless in that situation," he told CNN.
At the end of the day, Andriy and comrades got a stroke of luck: Wagner retreated.
Tens of thousands of Wagner fighters have joined in Russia's war efforts to capture Bakhmut, where intense fighting has raged for months. Among the group's fighters are recruited prisoners who have been sent to the front lines — sometimes alongside newly mobilized Russian troops — and used to absorb heavy Ukrainian fire.
US military officials have said that these forces are taking the brunt of Ukrainian firepower.
Top US Gen. Mark Milley said last month that Russian casualties have climbed to "significantly well over 100,000 now." That assessment includes the regular military and Wagner.
Though Wagner is taking heavy losses, the group also appears to be the only Moscow-linked force that has found any sort of success on the battlefield, specifically the capture of the strategically insignificant Soledar, and its prominence has at times caused rifts between the mercenary group and Russia's regular military.
The US government announced a litany of new sanctions last week aimed at the Wagner Group, designating it a "significant transnational criminal organization" and targeting individuals and entities involved in supporting its global network. Source So 10k remaining Wagner troopers continue to attack and take ground against this many AFU units? ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/MQFfFt1.png) It's a pretty silly comparison when you have two different conventions for labeling units. NATO standards for what units can operate independently vs post soviet btgs is a completely different and mostly semantic argument to have. What BTGs? From Russian side there is only Wagner with, as it's been established here, 10k men, and couple of other units, and then there is AFU of "NATO standards" with 14 infantry brigades of (mostly) 5 infantry battalions each+2 tank brigades with 3 tank battalions each and bunch of separate units. Pretty easy to count and compare. Also question to Polish - what's up with this recruitment banner? Reportedly on some subway in Poland (checked it out, seems to be Centrum station of Warsaw subway) https://t.me/boris_rozhin/76977 I'm glad you agree with me that you were engaging in ignorant semantics. Also is that the right link beacuse that not in a subway and just looks like a drone and not a banner. No, I'm not, I was asking you to count how much would be 14*5*500 (even leaving out all support elements and tank units). I'm pretty sure it's subway, it took me 10 minutes in Google to find it. https://www.google.com/maps/@52.2306106,21.0105391,3a,75y,197.18h,77.74t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipO98bsC-jhmrm5hitMUF7aHgymuxR97CvTEi7mM!2e10!3e11!6shttps://lh5.googleusercontent.com/p/AF1QipO98bsC-jhmrm5hitMUF7aHgymuxR97CvTEi7mM=w203-h100-k-no-pi-0-ya107.70712-ro-0-fo100!7i6144!8i3072Or did you open some wrong link?
Yes but you did admit that the Wager unit was listed as a single massive unit while every independently operating AFU unit was being represented by the NATO standard markings on the map. Theres no way you're going to be posting OPSEC like the real unit intelligence online
Its really werid it was a complete different picture yesterday. Also the google pic for me doens't have the tank add I assume that the link is sending to me today.
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It's such a weird feeling to hear people saying or implying that the war will continue for another year or two and NOT thinking "they can't be right"...
First few days after it started I felt it should end soon, in a week or two at most - one way or another. Modern "special operations" are often pretty swift.
Then I thought it should surely end by May, with everyone talking about how expensive wars are.
In April/May I thought - maybe a few months more but surely then RuAF won't have enough resources after that?
Now it's a first (hopefully the last too) anniversary and there's no end in sight.
So when aforementioned people say/imply it might last for a new 1-2 years, I don't think it's a crazy take. And this is such a weird feeling.
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Ukraine is basically becoming a NATO member slowly but surely.
Putin has said that Russia has a surprise for the World on February 24th... how many spy satellites are watching Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia right now. Can only imagine.
KYIV, Ukraine — As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nears the one-year mark, Kyiv is sounding an increasingly urgent warning: President Vladimir Putin is preparing a major new offensive.
Ukrainian officials say they fear that Russia's military is regrouping and preparing an imminent attack designed to turn the tide of the war in Moscow's favor — its ranks bolstered by hundreds of thousands of conscripts called up last fall.
“We should understand that the threat of a new and another offensive will remain until we defeat Russia,” Yuriy Sak, a senior defense ministry official, told NBC News in an interview Thursday.
A spring offensive has long been predicted by Western officials and analysts, with the Kremlin eager to seize the initiative after a grinding winter that was preceded by months of battlefield setbacks and domestic criticism.
But leaders in Kyiv now say that Russia has amassed a large force ready to attack soon, leading up to the Feb. 24 anniversary.
Speaking to French media Wednesday, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Russia had 500,000 troops ready for an assault in the coming weeks, nearly double the number Putin announced he was mobilizing in September.
“Officially, they announced 300,000, but when we see the troops at the borders, according to our assessments it is much more,” he said.
Ukrainian officials have been issuing warnings, but his comments are the most detailed description yet of what Kyiv sees as an imminent threat.
Reznikov — who was in Paris to press the French government for weapons — said Russia was likely to attack from either the east or the south.
In the east, Ukrainian commanders face an agonizing choice of whether to withdraw from the city of Bakhmut or hold their positions despite punishing losses and the growing risk of encirclement in a bitter fight that has taken on symbolic, as well as strategic importance.
“As their main forces are concentrated in the east, we do expect them to begin an offensive there, perhaps around Bakhmut,” Sak said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy offered a similar assessment in his nightly video address. "The situation has become tougher” in the area, he said.
“The enemy is trying to achieve at least something now to show that Russia has some chances on the anniversary of the invasion,” he added.
In the south, Russia’s forces are arrayed along the eastern bank of the Dnipro River and within striking distance of the crucial city of Kherson. The regional capital was the first major city to fall to Russian troops in the early days of the war, but they were forced into an embarrassing retreat in November to more defensible positions over the river.
Andrii Yermak, Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, said Thursday he had briefed Jake Sullivan, the U.S. national security adviser, and Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, about the threat of a new offensive.
“There was an exchange of views regarding the possible actions of the enemy in the near future,” Yermak said on Twitter.
Source
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Putin on 24 Feb be like "It's just a prank, bro!".
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Russia could be throwing another 500k people at Ukraine soon, probably at the mentioned 24 February date. What can this reasonably accomplish? I would assume they have some form of training, but I wouldn't be surprised if the gains they get would be less than what happened last year during the initial stages of the war
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On February 03 2023 05:15 plasmidghost wrote:Russia could be throwing another 500k people at Ukraine soon, probably at the mentioned 24 February date. What can this reasonably accomplish? I would assume they have some form of training, but I wouldn't be surprised if the gains they get would be less than what happened last year during the initial stages of the war https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1621043269877600257
The way I see it Putin has no choice other than to order major offensives because if he doesn't do it, Ukraine will do it, and then he's likely to end up with a net loss of territory in the long run. He's in a predicament. Staying on the defensive in his shoes is akin to admitting defeat because if his army is so vastly superior that it can easily stop a counter offensive without worries then it must also be able to claim a lot more territory with relative ease. It hasn't done so in a long time even though we know he wants it to, therefore such superiority doesn't exist. That also means that the Russian army is unlikely to grab a lot more territory during their next major offensive.
Ukraine of course is in the same predicament. We'll have to wait and see if their army can demonstrate that they're superior to Russia's.
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On February 03 2023 05:44 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On February 03 2023 05:15 plasmidghost wrote:Russia could be throwing another 500k people at Ukraine soon, probably at the mentioned 24 February date. What can this reasonably accomplish? I would assume they have some form of training, but I wouldn't be surprised if the gains they get would be less than what happened last year during the initial stages of the war https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1621043269877600257 The way I see it Putin has no choice other than to order major offensives because if he doesn't do it, Ukraine will do it, and then he's likely to end up with a net loss of territory in the long run. He's in a predicament. Staying on the defensive in his shoes is akin to admitting defeat because if his army is so vastly superior that it can easily stop a counter offensive without worries then it must also be able to claim a lot more territory with relative ease. It hasn't done so in a long time even though we know he wants it to, therefore such superiority doesn't exist. That also means that the Russian army is unlikely to grab a lot more territory during their next major offensive. Ukraine of course is in the same predicament. We'll have to wait and see if their army can demonstrate that they're superior to Russia's.
Another thing I'm thinking of is that their next major offensive might make gains for the first 1-2 months (should it materialize around 24 February) until Ukraine gets a lot of the Leopards, GLSDBs, Patriot systems, etc. I wonder if it would be wise strategically for Ukraine to fall back from fronts and condense their forces for a little while until they get new equipment and perhaps more training from NATO countries, as well as keeping on using artillery and HIMARS to wear down Russian forces, similar to how the PLA succeeded in winning the Chinese Civil War in the 1940s
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Russian Federation614 Posts
On February 03 2023 01:17 Sermokala wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2023 12:28 Ardias wrote:On February 02 2023 11:37 Sermokala wrote:On February 02 2023 10:52 Ardias wrote:On February 02 2023 09:26 Sermokala wrote:On February 02 2023 08:53 Ardias wrote:On February 02 2023 08:37 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:Start of the war Wagner increase to around 50k personnel and now is reported to have less than ten thousand left. Stories like this doesn't appear to give much doubt to the claims... this honestly sounds like they are drugged. A Ukrainian soldier who recently had a run-in with a group of Wagner mercenaries said the fighters "didn't stop coming" during a battle in Bakhmut, Ukraine.
"We were fighting for about 10 hours in a row. And it wasn't like just waves — it was uninterrupted. So it was just like they didn't stop coming," the soldier, named Andriy, told CNN of fighting troops from the Wagner Group, a private military contractor linked to the Kremlin that consists of mercenaries and former prisoners.
He said the fight was between 20 Ukrainian soldiers and about 200 Wagner troops and described it as a "frightening and surreal experience."
Andriy detailed the ruthless nature of these fighters, comparing the battle to something out of a "zombie movie."
"They're climbing above the corpse of their friends, stepping on them," he told CNN. He even suggested that the Wagner troops might be "getting some drugs before the attack."
Andriy said their machine gunner was "almost going crazy" because he knew he was shooting at and hitting his targets, but none of the troops he hit were falling.
"He said, 'I know I shot him, but he doesn't fall,'" Andriy told CNN. "And then after some time, when he maybe bleeds out, so he just falls down."
The soldier said his group's AK-47 rifles became so hot from constantly firing at the Wagner troops that they had to keep switching out guns.
He described Wagner's attack method to CNN, saying that first, they send a group of attackers — mainly made up of recruits fresh from Russian prisons. At that point, they begin "digging into position," Andriy said.
A second group then advances to claim more land "step by step," moving forward and into position, Andriy recalled. As Wagner loses more troops and groups are exhausted, they send more as an attempt to hold their spot on the battlefield.
Eventually, Andriy's group was surrounded. "We didn't expect them to come from there," he told CNN.
"We were shooting until the last bullet, so we threw all the grenades we had and left only me and a few guys. We were helpless in that situation," he told CNN.
At the end of the day, Andriy and comrades got a stroke of luck: Wagner retreated.
Tens of thousands of Wagner fighters have joined in Russia's war efforts to capture Bakhmut, where intense fighting has raged for months. Among the group's fighters are recruited prisoners who have been sent to the front lines — sometimes alongside newly mobilized Russian troops — and used to absorb heavy Ukrainian fire.
US military officials have said that these forces are taking the brunt of Ukrainian firepower.
Top US Gen. Mark Milley said last month that Russian casualties have climbed to "significantly well over 100,000 now." That assessment includes the regular military and Wagner.
Though Wagner is taking heavy losses, the group also appears to be the only Moscow-linked force that has found any sort of success on the battlefield, specifically the capture of the strategically insignificant Soledar, and its prominence has at times caused rifts between the mercenary group and Russia's regular military.
The US government announced a litany of new sanctions last week aimed at the Wagner Group, designating it a "significant transnational criminal organization" and targeting individuals and entities involved in supporting its global network. Source So 10k remaining Wagner troopers continue to attack and take ground against this many AFU units? It's a pretty silly comparison when you have two different conventions for labeling units. NATO standards for what units can operate independently vs post soviet btgs is a completely different and mostly semantic argument to have. What BTGs? From Russian side there is only Wagner with, as it's been established here, 10k men, and couple of other units, and then there is AFU of "NATO standards" with 14 infantry brigades of (mostly) 5 infantry battalions each+2 tank brigades with 3 tank battalions each and bunch of separate units. Pretty easy to count and compare. Also question to Polish - what's up with this recruitment banner? Reportedly on some subway in Poland (checked it out, seems to be Centrum station of Warsaw subway) https://t.me/boris_rozhin/76977 I'm glad you agree with me that you were engaging in ignorant semantics. Also is that the right link beacuse that not in a subway and just looks like a drone and not a banner. No, I'm not, I was asking you to count how much would be 14*5*500 (even leaving out all support elements and tank units). I'm pretty sure it's subway, it took me 10 minutes in Google to find it. https://www.google.com/maps/@52.2306106,21.0105391,3a,75y,197.18h,77.74t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipO98bsC-jhmrm5hitMUF7aHgymuxR97CvTEi7mM!2e10!3e11!6shttps://lh5.googleusercontent.com/p/AF1QipO98bsC-jhmrm5hitMUF7aHgymuxR97CvTEi7mM=w203-h100-k-no-pi-0-ya107.70712-ro-0-fo100!7i6144!8i3072Or did you open some wrong link? Yes but you did admit that the Wager unit was listed as a single massive unit while every independently operating AFU unit was being represented by the NATO standard markings on the map. Theres no way you're going to be posting OPSEC like the real unit intelligence online Its really werid it was a complete different picture yesterday. Also the google pic for me doens't have the tank add I assume that the link is sending to me today.
On the bolded part - Info about which units fight where is regularly posted online by both sides every day throughout the war about their own and about opposing ones. It's the reality of this war.
You could check prooflinks for every individual unit on both sided on the map (and it's not too comprehensive, but I assume it's a single person or small team working on it, so it's good enough).
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=180u1IkUjtjpdJWnIC0AxTKSiqK4G6Pez&hl=en_US
AFU, working much more extensively on media coverage of the war, slipped up quite badly couple of times with OPSEC, I've given an example a while back - https://tl.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=28014954
As for comparison - yes, Wagner is listed as a single massive unit. A single massive unit, which numbers are, presumably, are known (earlier in the thread 50 000 - 40 000 = 10 000). Then knowing basics of military structure, you could easily compare it to regular military formation in terms of size, considering that Wagner has all kinds of stuff, up to air force of their own.
As for AFU - yes, there may be ambiguity regarding how many units of each brigade are operating there, but judging from the normal AFU practice of operations - at least 1/2 of a brigade on average is presented on the frontline itself.
Then you just take calculator and compare (and then add up support units reasonably needed for such amount of troops).
Though to be frank, all this stuff about Wagner being down to 10 000 sounds like crap and wishful thinking. Or I would like to know some historical examples of a unit continuing to do successful offensive after losing 4/5s of their strength against opponent that has at least twice as much forces.
Another argument for that is that head of UA intelligence says that there are 326 000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine.
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/budanov-approximately-326-000-russian-soldiers-currently-fight-in-ukraine
So if it's true, it would mean what, that the most successfull Russian offensive on 40 km front is conducted by only 10 000 troopers? And the rest 316 000 are doing nothing?
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I don't think this was discussed yet:
If true Putin was offered the part of Ukraine he already holds in exchange for peace but he still intends to take more.
Ukraine wasn't on board with the plan anyway, chances are they were offered no protection for the future.
This is why decision to send Abrams was made, which in turn forced Scholtz to send Leopards.
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On February 03 2023 17:15 pmp10 wrote:I don't think this was discussed yet: https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1621094751176118273If true Putin was offered the part of Ukraine he already holds in exchange for peace but he still intends to take more. Ukraine wasn't on board with the plan anyway, chances are they were offered no protection for the future. This is why decision to send Abrams was made, which in turn forced Scholtz to send Leopards.
If true, the bigger implication here would have been that the US withheld vital support for ukraine to weaken their negotiation position so they are forced to accept the US peace deal. Luckily the timeline for this does not work out as the US has been asking its allies to consider sending to ukraine since autumn last year at least.
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On February 03 2023 18:14 Artesimo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 03 2023 17:15 pmp10 wrote:I don't think this was discussed yet: https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1621094751176118273If true Putin was offered the part of Ukraine he already holds in exchange for peace but he still intends to take more. Ukraine wasn't on board with the plan anyway, chances are they were offered no protection for the future. This is why decision to send Abrams was made, which in turn forced Scholtz to send Leopards. If true, the bigger implication here would have been that the US withheld vital support for ukraine to weaken their negotiation position so they are forced to accept the US peace deal. Luckily the timeline for this does not work out as the US has been asking its allies to consider sending to ukraine since autumn last year at least.
I have enough of this. Provide evidence for your conspiracy theory.
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On February 03 2023 19:01 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On February 03 2023 18:14 Artesimo wrote:On February 03 2023 17:15 pmp10 wrote:I don't think this was discussed yet: https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1621094751176118273If true Putin was offered the part of Ukraine he already holds in exchange for peace but he still intends to take more. Ukraine wasn't on board with the plan anyway, chances are they were offered no protection for the future. This is why decision to send Abrams was made, which in turn forced Scholtz to send Leopards. If true, the bigger implication here would have been that the US withheld vital support for ukraine to weaken their negotiation position so they are forced to accept the US peace deal. Luckily the timeline for this does not work out as the US has been asking its allies to consider sending to ukraine since autumn last year at least. I have enough of this. Provide evidence for your conspiracy theory.
Read again what I wrote instead of getting all amped up again. The post I responded to suggested that US only send tanks after the peace deal fell through, which would imply the US did not want to strengthen ukraine too much as not to risk the peace deal. US has been asking for tanks well before though, so the US sending tanks just because of the failed peace deal seems unlikely.
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Your statement amounts to the Swiss media making things up to get clicks and views.
The US asking other countries for more support does not mean that the media must be lying about the US attempting peace negotiations with a 20% offer. There's no connection here. Every supporting country has asked every other supporting country to send more, because no country wants to be alone in this and look like a fool. It has to be a collective effort.
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On February 03 2023 19:16 Magic Powers wrote:
Your statement amounts to the Swiss media making things up to get clicks and views.
The US asking other countries for more support does not mean that the media must be lying about the US attempting peace negotiations with a 20% offer. There's no connection here. Every supporting country has asked every other supporting country to send more, because no country wants to be alone in this and look like a fool. It has to be a collective effort.
No:
On February 03 2023 19:12 Artesimo wrote:
Read again what I wrote instead of getting all amped up again. The post I responded to suggested that US only send tanks after the peace deal fell through, which would imply the US did not want to strengthen ukraine too much as not to risk the peace deal. US has been asking for tanks well before though, so the US sending tanks just because of the failed peace deal seems unlikely.
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Then you failed to make that clear, that's not my fault.
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On February 03 2023 19:26 Magic Powers wrote:
Then you failed to make that clear, that's not my fault.
All lost in translation 
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EPT
