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On December 21 2022 22:48 Simberto wrote: Also, it is nice and easy to say "I want reduced time between spotting and firing", but you actually have to have new procedures for that to work, and train your people in these new procedures. Which is usually pretty hard in the middle of a war.
Afaik, they already got a pretty good system for minimising delay between target acquisition and fire since the donbass war, and we hear similar reports from ukraine with targeting up to individual vehicles being done successfully. But it has not become the norm for the russian army,I assume due to lack of equipment for it being widely available and training. They do have systems and procedures for it though, and unless those units are already too degraded, people with the required skills to propagate it. So while it remains challenging, its definitely not impossible, though one does indeed wonder how they will sort out something like the equipment shortage under sanctions while also losing existing equipment due to combat.
On December 21 2022 22:48 Simberto wrote: How much of that is actually realistic, and how much of it is just demands and wishful thinking that will never be met by reality anyways?
Especially the speeding up of production of all of the stuff at once sounds suspicious to me. I thought there were already problems with producing stuff at the speed it is being used? It sounds unlikely that you can just turn some dial and have the stuff that should be delivered in 2025 in 2023 instead, even if you throw lots of money at the situation. Building up capacity takes time.
Also, it is nice and easy to say "I want reduced time between spotting and firing", but you actually have to have new procedures for that to work, and train your people in these new procedures. Which is usually pretty hard in the middle of a war.
"increased mobilization" and "No limitation on financing the army" sounds as if you are drifting towards total war? So i guess the plan really is to throw more people into the meatgrinder in the hopes of eventually jamming it, with no exit plan out of this insanity?
Production-wise - not all could be ramped up of course, but quite a lot of weapon production plants were previously suffering, actually, from the lack of orders for production, being on the verge of bankruptcy, working 3-4 days a week at most and being saved by state subsidies and even orders that seemded unnecesary, like revival of T-80 program into T-80BVM version, which was seemed at time as useless and that it was only used to keep "Omsktransmash", production plant in Omsk, alive. From what I've heard (unofficially of course, so won't be able to give a list), many defense plants went into 3-shift 24/7 mode and put a lot of job vacancies with decent payment. So the question is not about workforce, or spare hulls (there are still ton of tanks, BMPs and arty in storage), but in resources to modernize it. Since T-72B3, T-80BVM and T-90M are all being produced en masse (videos of production and shipment are quite abundant), there is no shortage of ERA and thermals at least. As for the numbers - in 2021 Russian Ground forces recieved only 150 new armored vehicles (110 BMP-3, and 40 T-72B3 I believe), so if orders for 2024-2025 were of similar fashion, they aren't that hard to beat. At least 100 T-90M (number guessed from them appearing in 3 different tank battalions (which is 30 tanks, and Russian defence industry generally supply armor vehicles in battalions) and 2 training centers) were produced this year, and some say that number could actually be around 200. An that is T-90M alone. Naval and air projects though, on the other hand, will probably be pushed back, both due to the lessen performance in the war, and need for complex electronics supplies, which are probably hampered by sanctions.
About reduced time for firing solution - the problem lies more in higher up officers that demand that everything went through them, "just in case". People on the front, especially those from LDPR and Wagner often have working practices for that. Though I agree that implementing it on the whole army takes considerable time even if there is a push from above for that.
For mobilization - well, seems that this is the case.
On December 21 2022 23:12 Ardias wrote: About reduced time for firing solution - the problem lies more in higher up officers that demand that everything went through them, "just in case".
If my trench was being assaulted and I wanted artillery support I would be a little nervous about the conscript who received 2 hours training aiming the artillery. If officers feel like they have to personally check who the artillery is going to hit before they fire then that implies other issues.
On December 21 2022 23:12 Ardias wrote: About reduced time for firing solution - the problem lies more in higher up officers that demand that everything went through them, "just in case".
If my trench was being assaulted and I wanted artillery support I would be a little nervous about the conscript who received 2 hours training aiming the artillery. If officers feel like they have to personally check who the artillery is going to hit before they fire then that implies other issues.
Conscripts generally don't go near correcting the artillery. The issue presented is with forward artillery/air observers of the battalion/brigade, as well as air force officers themselves in attempts to get firing clearance. Fire approval procedure is quite slower and has quite more steps in Russian Army, than in the US Army, for example. Reasons may differ - big officer/general feels that he alone should be in control/get credit for the decision/not trust his subordinates. Though I've seen examples of successive counterbattery fire even on Ukrainian MLRSs, so I guess some Russians do resolve these issues on the front. Not sure how many though.
On December 21 2022 22:18 Ardias wrote: Putin had a large meeting with members of Ministry of Defence today. Some key points:
- War will continue in 2023, until all objectives are achieved. - Critique of problems in military is allowed and even encouraged and should be evaluated by MoD. - Putin demanded the increase of UAV production and usage (up to the squad level) and to decrease time between spotting the enemy and firing (chain of command delay in this regard was haunting Russian army since Chechnya, and on all levels, I guess that's why he adressed it in particular) - Russia will continue attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. - Military comissariats would be modernized to increase mobilization effectivness. - 250 000 soldiers and officers recieved combat experience in Ukraine (I guess it means military personnel that was engaged in war, but not including Rosgvardia (it has its own ministry), LDPR forces and Wagner, not sure about volunteer battalions like BARS). - Military production is increased, stuff that was ordered to be delivered in 2024-2025 would be moved to 2023. Putin said that there would be no limitation on financing the army. - Shoigu said that two new military districts will be created - Moscow and Leningrad. Military presence on the north-west of Russia is planned to be increased. Army is planned to be increased up to 1,5 million men, 670 thousands of whom would be contract soldiers.(it's 1 million now, and was supposed to be 1,12 million from 01.01.2023). - 2 new airborne divisions will be formed. - Each tank army should have it's one fighter-bomber division and helicopter brigade. That's an interesting hint (if there is no mistake in the statement) - Russia currently has only one tank army, being 1st Guards Tank Army. All others are considered "combined arms". But Shoigu speaks like there are (or will be?) several.
Or and this is way smarter, these MoD people could have kicked Putin out a window (while at it, maybe include all those ridiculous tv-presenters), admit he made a stupid mistake, discuss a peace with the old borders. Advantage: - you re not throwing your entire economy into a warmachine at the expense of all your lives, which would arguably be better by spending on infrastructure and healthcare instead of single use cruise missiles. - you re not sacrificing thousands upon thousands of young lives who will be sorely missed in your economy. - you re not needlessly killing/destroying another country at your own detriment. - Peace in the world will improve the lives of everyone on this planet. It wont last with climate crisis and other crises around the world, but we can try. - etc. etc.
- But no lets keep the senile megalomaniac alive and making decisions so we can all die together, once this blows up.
Anyway with potentially 3000 tanks lost since februari, making a few hundred new ones isnt gonna cut it next year.
The demand for quicker decision-making is likely a consequence of Ukrainian frontline troops moving between locations very rapidly, so that Russian artillery strikes have a low hit rate unless they predict the movement ahead of time.
Additional troops won't make a difference at the front lines anytime soon, I suspect they're meant for defensive purposes for the whole of 2023. This could change in 2024.
Furthermore Bakhmut may or may not be representative of Putin's current plans. I'm starting to think he's decided to let the Wagner group do their own thing (perhaps because he thinks they won't listen to his orders?). This would help explain the seeming incoherence of Russia's/Putin's actions, because it wouldn't be just him, but several parties aiming for different things. My guess is that Putin prefers to create as much of a stalemate as possible and slowly chip away at foreign support for Ukraine. He can use Wagner's battles for propaganda purposes. There's also the chance that he buys into Wagner's seeming successes. In his current situation the man needs hope more than anything else. Lastly there's the very realistic possibility that he doesn't know what to do and tries everything until something sticks. We as competitors know quite well what a long-lasting series of failures can do to a very frustrated man, especially one who's gotten used to winning relatively easy battles. He may be on a very heavy form of tilt that's clouding his judgement, causing an incoherence in his decisions.
Morocco to supply Ukraine with 120 T-72 tanks. They will be modernized in the Czech Republic before being transferred to Ukraine.
Morocco is jettisoning it’s neutral stance in the Russian-Ukraine conflict, to supply arms to Kiev.
Rabat had earlier chosen to back a de facto African-sponsored neutrality in the ongoing conflict between Moscow and Kiev, but has apparently succumbed to pressures from the United States.
The United States has secretly convince Morocco to deliver modernized T-72B tanks, and spare parts to Kiev.
Morocco will supply Ukraine with spare parts for T-72 tanks and will thus become the first African state to provide military assistance to Ukraine
Besides the spare parts, T-72B Main Battle Tanks modernized by Czech company Excalibur Army and intended for Morocco will be diverted to Ukraine.
Richard Kubena, the company’s commercial director, told the media that, Excalibur Army is currently “focused on a large order for the modernization of up to 120 T-72 MBT, which come from an African country.”
The purchase of “African” tanks for shipment to Ukraine is paid for by the United States and the Netherlands under an agreement totaling 2.2 billion rubles. CZK (slightly more than 90 million euros).
Kubena notes that the first five MBTs will be received next week, and by the end of the year it is planned to prepare 18 units for shipment. In total, 90 “African” T-72 MBTs are expected to be delivered to Ukraine, plus another 30 MBTs as an option, which will be purchased next year.
The Czech Ministry of Defense, said regarding the arms transfer that “the final customer has satisfied the request of the above-mentioned countries and considers the agreement reached on the transfer of tanks (in exchange for other equipment) as assistance to the government of Ukraine.”
Morocco which is wary of Russia’s continued support for regional rival Algeria, have chosen to send arms to Kiev to spite Moscow.
Rabat had earlier maintained a neutral stance by abstaining during the UN General Assembly’s March 2022 vote to deplore Russian aggression in Ukraine. Morocco was among the 25 out of 54 African states that abstained or did not vote in that UN resolution.
At the time, Morocco advocated for “respect for the territorial integrity, sovereignty and national unity of all United Nations member states”, in a meeting with NATO and allies of the United States, in Germany to discuss increased military aid to Zelensky’s government.
Shortly after Morocco attended the summit, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Algeria, where he declared that both Russia and Algeria “see eye to eye on all key issues of international politics.”
Tensions between Algeria and Morocco have been growing lately, resulting in the former severing its diplomatic ties with the latter in August 2021.
The two North African countries disagree about the political status of the Western Sahara, which Morocco claims. An independence movement in Algeria, known as the Popular Front for the Liberation of the Saguia el Hamra and Rio de Oro (Polisario Front), comprising the indigenous Sahrawi tribe, asserts a claim on the land.
Western Sahara is under Morocco’s occupation after the Kingdom of Morocco annexed it in two stages in 1976 and 1979. However, it is not considered a legal part of Morocco according to International Law.
Algeria has historically had close defense ties with Moscow, dating back to the Soviet era, and those ties have only strengthened in recent years.
The T-72 tank deal was negotiated by the United States and Europe Union, the Czech Ministry of Defense decided to supply the upgraded T-72 tanks for Morocco to Ukraine.
Around 20 years ago, Morocco purchased from Belarus a batch of 136 T-72B battle tanks, including 12 commander T-72BKS and spare parts for them
By the end of this decade, Morocco had 40 operational T-72B tanks and 62 in storage. But in the new deal, Morocco could order other military equipment produced by the Czech company Excalibur.
Since 2015, Ukraine has been asking Morocco to purchase these main battle tanks to augment it’s plethora of Soviet-made tanks.
The war with Russia has depleted Ukraine’s stock of main battle tanks, and in a November interview, Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Mykhailo Podoliak spoke about the needs of the Ukrainian army in military assistance from partner countries to help it restore the territorial integrity of the country by military means.
“We still need 150 to 200 tanks, about 300 armoured vehicles, 100 artillery systems, 50-70 multiple rocket launcher systems, including the formidable American HIMARS, of which Ukraine already has several pieces, as well as 10 to 15 anti-aircraft defence systems to close the sky,” said Mr. Podoliak.
Excalibur army developed a modernized version of the Soviet-made T-72 tank equipped with thermal imagers, night vision systems, and new armor.
The new Czech T-72 upgrade is fitted with an ERA (Explosive Reactive Armor) kit mounted at the front and on the sides of the hull as well as the front and the roof of the turret.
Looking at LNG prices in Europe offers some hope for me. The Dutch TTF LNG price was at a peak of 345 in late August and since then has dropped significantly to (at the moment) 98. If we can survive the next couple of months with enough gas at reasonable prices, I fully expect support to continue into next year since we won't have to be paying stupidly expensive prices every month
On December 21 2022 22:18 Ardias wrote: Putin had a large meeting with members of Ministry of Defence today. Some key points:
- War will continue in 2023, until all objectives are achieved. - Critique of problems in military is allowed and even encouraged and should be evaluated by MoD. - Putin demanded the increase of UAV production and usage (up to the squad level) and to decrease time between spotting the enemy and firing (chain of command delay in this regard was haunting Russian army since Chechnya, and on all levels, I guess that's why he adressed it in particular) - Russia will continue attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. - Military comissariats would be modernized to increase mobilization effectivness. - 250 000 soldiers and officers recieved combat experience in Ukraine (I guess it means military personnel that was engaged in war, but not including Rosgvardia (it has its own ministry), LDPR forces and Wagner, not sure about volunteer battalions like BARS). - Military production is increased, stuff that was ordered to be delivered in 2024-2025 would be moved to 2023. Putin said that there would be no limitation on financing the army. - Shoigu said that two new military districts will be created - Moscow and Leningrad. Military presence on the north-west of Russia is planned to be increased. Army is planned to be increased up to 1,5 million men, 670 thousands of whom would be contract soldiers.(it's 1 million now, and was supposed to be 1,12 million from 01.01.2023). - 2 new airborne divisions will be formed. - Each tank army should have it's one fighter-bomber division and helicopter brigade. That's an interesting hint (if there is no mistake in the statement) - Russia currently has only one tank army, being 1st Guards Tank Army. All others are considered "combined arms". But Shoigu speaks like there are (or will be?) several.
Or and this is way smarter, these MoD people could have kicked Putin out a window (while at it, maybe include all those ridiculous tv-presenters), admit he made a stupid mistake, discuss a peace with the old borders. Advantage: - you re not throwing your entire economy into a warmachine at the expense of all your lives, which would arguably be better by spending on infrastructure and healthcare instead of single use cruise missiles. - you re not sacrificing thousands upon thousands of young lives who will be sorely missed in your economy. - you re not needlessly killing/destroying another country at your own detriment. - Peace in the world will improve the lives of everyone on this planet. It wont last with climate crisis and other crises around the world, but we can try. - etc. etc.
- But no lets keep the senile megalomaniac alive and making decisions so we can all die together, once this blows up.
Anyway with potentially 3000 tanks lost since februari, making a few hundred new ones isnt gonna cut it next year.
I think right now the higher-ups in Russia might not be thinking rationally. Perhaps they realized that their economy and production capabilities might be screwed for decades to come so just screw it all and go all in.
I wonder if there will be any other major shift on a global scale. With Russia being weakened so much and China facing some serious economic and societal problems it seems like the "communist block" in the world is falling apart. While this might not have immediate impact on big power players like Russia and China but it'll definitely be interesting to see if anything happens to smaller satellites like North Korea who might suddenly lose their big brother support.
Even in economic collapse china would still extend a nuclear umbrella over north Korea, even if north Korea didn't have nukes of its own.
They lost their big brother once before and they didn't have so much as a revolt to put down. When you live in a feudal level of tech and the world is modern you can stay stable and easy if you've got nukes still.
Inflation is going down. Slowly but it is. Once LNG and alternative gas supplies are in place for the long term, Russia will have no leverage on Europe. It'll only get worse for Russia from that point. I think this is our chance to avoid repeating 1944 (Red Army's conquests). So I remain optimistic that we can do better than the previous century and that Ukraine will be free.
Edit: Here is survey about news that 1 million Russians have left Russia. Some act negatively, while others feel the need to do the same:
On December 22 2022 03:01 Magic Powers wrote: The demand for quicker decision-making is likely a consequence of Ukrainian frontline troops moving between locations very rapidly, so that Russian artillery strikes have a low hit rate unless they predict the movement ahead of time.
Additional troops won't make a difference at the front lines anytime soon, I suspect they're meant for defensive purposes for the whole of 2023. This could change in 2024.
Furthermore Bakhmut may or may not be representative of Putin's current plans. I'm starting to think he's decided to let the Wagner group do their own thing (perhaps because he thinks they won't listen to his orders?). This would help explain the seeming incoherence of Russia's/Putin's actions, because it wouldn't be just him, but several parties aiming for different things. My guess is that Putin prefers to create as much of a stalemate as possible and slowly chip away at foreign support for Ukraine. He can use Wagner's battles for propaganda purposes. There's also the chance that he buys into Wagner's seeming successes. In his current situation the man needs hope more than anything else. Lastly there's the very realistic possibility that he doesn't know what to do and tries everything until something sticks. We as competitors know quite well what a long-lasting series of failures can do to a very frustrated man, especially one who's gotten used to winning relatively easy battles. He may be on a very heavy form of tilt that's clouding his judgement, causing an incoherence in his decisions.
IMO the plan with Wagners is to just let them do their thing then you can either claim credit for their succes or condemn them for failure since "they didn't have orders and were working alone"
On December 22 2022 17:29 SC-Shield wrote: Inflation is going down. Slowly but it is. Once LNG and alternative gas supplies are in place for the long term, Russia will have no leverage on Europe. It'll only get worse for Russia from that point. I think this is our chance to avoid repeating 1944 (Red Army's conquests). So I remain optimistic that we can do better than the previous century and that Ukraine will be free.
In line with this, here are electricity prices in different EU Countries today: https://euenergy.live/
Why is Iberia with 50 €/MWh vs around 200 for all other countries? Since early December nearly all electricity is being generated from Hydro+Wind+Nuclear, with practically no input from fossil fuels.
Now, it's not usually like this and we're benefiting from a lot of bad weather these past weeks, but this gives us a hint at what most of Europe is going to look like in the medium term. Offshore wind energy capacity in northern europe in particular is projected to grow massively within this decade.
On December 22 2022 17:29 SC-Shield wrote: Inflation is going down. Slowly but it is. Once LNG and alternative gas supplies are in place for the long term, Russia will have no leverage on Europe. It'll only get worse for Russia from that point. I think this is our chance to avoid repeating 1944 (Red Army's conquests). So I remain optimistic that we can do better than the previous century and that Ukraine will be free.
In line with this, here are electricity prices in different EU Countries today: https://euenergy.live/
Why is Iberia with 50 €/MWh vs around 200 for all other countries? Since early December nearly all electricity is being generated from Hydro+Wind+Nuclear, with practically no input from fossil fuels.
Now, it's not usually like this and we're benefiting from a lot of bad weather these past weeks, but this gives us a hint at what most of Europe is going to look like in the medium term. Offshore wind energy capacity in northern europe in particular is projected to grow massively within this decade.
Der Preisdeckel beruht auf einer Sondergenehmigung der Europäischen Kommission für Spanien und Portugal von Anfang des Jahres. Diese erlaubt es ihnen, die Stromkosten am Großhandelsmarkt vom Erdgas abzukoppeln. Dazu wird der Preis des Brennstoffs bei Verwendung zur Stromerzeugung gedeckelt. Dies hat den Ländern geholfen, die anderswo zu beobachtenden größeren Preisausschläge zu vermeiden.
Basically Spain and Portugal have a special permit which allows them to differentiate between energy sources. Because of this they have decoupled gas from the rest and thats why it's just 25-30% of what the rest pays
On December 22 2022 17:29 SC-Shield wrote: Inflation is going down. Slowly but it is. Once LNG and alternative gas supplies are in place for the long term, Russia will have no leverage on Europe. It'll only get worse for Russia from that point. I think this is our chance to avoid repeating 1944 (Red Army's conquests). So I remain optimistic that we can do better than the previous century and that Ukraine will be free.
In line with this, here are electricity prices in different EU Countries today: https://euenergy.live/
Why is Iberia with 50 €/MWh vs around 200 for all other countries? Since early December nearly all electricity is being generated from Hydro+Wind+Nuclear, with practically no input from fossil fuels.
Now, it's not usually like this and we're benefiting from a lot of bad weather these past weeks, but this gives us a hint at what most of Europe is going to look like in the medium term. Offshore wind energy capacity in northern europe in particular is projected to grow massively within this decade.
Der Preisdeckel beruht auf einer Sondergenehmigung der Europäischen Kommission für Spanien und Portugal von Anfang des Jahres. Diese erlaubt es ihnen, die Stromkosten am Großhandelsmarkt vom Erdgas abzukoppeln. Dazu wird der Preis des Brennstoffs bei Verwendung zur Stromerzeugung gedeckelt. Dies hat den Ländern geholfen, die anderswo zu beobachtenden größeren Preisausschläge zu vermeiden.
Basically Spain and Portugal have a special permit which allows them to differentiate between energy sources. Because of this they have decoupled gas from the rest and thats why it's just 25-30% of what the rest pays
The iberian energy market does have that special permit but that is not what is explaining the energy prices right now. The use of natural gas in electricity generation these days is effectively 0. Check the graph at the bottom of the page here: https://www.omie.es/en/spot-hoy
What this also tells us is that Europe would benefit from increasing electricity connections between countries since right now France could be benefitting a lot more from Iberian surpluses.
EPT
