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Croatia9529 Posts
This thread needs to cool down a bit. I know the emotions run high due to the nature of what we're discussing here, but it's important to remember that this *is* a discussion. This is not a battlefield. We best leave fighting to actual soldiers.
Throwing in personal insults into every post not only makes for boring reading, but it also degrades the discussion to the point that it becomes impossible to use this thread as a way to keep up to date on the war and to read various perspectives about the war from our TL members.
Now I can't start handing out warnings and bans retrospectively as I'm pretty sure I'd have to moderate everyone at some point. So in the interest of keeping things fair, consider this post as a warning to keep the discussion grounded in actual arguments, not endless ad hominems.
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On September 12 2022 04:03 Ardias wrote:Show nested quote +On September 12 2022 03:43 food wrote:On September 12 2022 03:34 zeo wrote:On September 12 2022 03:00 food wrote:On September 12 2022 02:38 Dav1oN wrote:
Russia just attacked critical electrical/water civilian infrastructure in 5 of the eastern region with missiles. Many cities are in blackout. This is the only way they can compensate for their retarted army. Hopefully no negotiations until kremlin state is disassembled into pieces If this goes on, what's the response? Allow Ukraine to retaliate with ATACMS? They can reach many targets in Russia. Does this get us closer to UN/NATO involvement? It was nice of Biden not to designate them as a terrorist state, now they are deliberately attacking civilian infrastructure. Quite a few posters in this thread have stated that making life hard for the common man amplifies discontent and accelerates regime change. The government in Kiev has been attacking critical civilian infrastructure in Russian and LNR/DNR controlled areas for months now; nuclear power plants, electrical distribution, water distribution networks and bridges We shouldn't jump to conclusions though. The UN should form a special committee within the next month or so and send them to each power plant and check what is really going on. Is the government in Kiev shelling its own power plants or is it Russia? After that I think a strongly worded statement is in order /s Seriously, I wrote about this happening yesterday. True to all the cum-drinking memes, a Serbian emerges that has a well thought out response that points the finger back at Ukraine, although the difference is it's the Ukrainian territory that Russia seized and a Ukrainian nuclear plant that Russian military parks their military vehicles at and uses as cover. Please share what critial infrastructure Ukraine has been attacking in Russia, you seem to know something others don't. Official report was that power lines from Kursk Atomic Power Plant were repeteadly blown up in August. https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5514103https://t.me/milinfolive/88268UA helos were attacking oil storage depot in April https://t.me/uniannet/43301There were multiple reports on the rail war conducted in Russia https://t.me/uniannet/47095https://t.me/milinfolive/86641
Is this the actual quality of your retorts? Thanks for saving me time on reading your other stuff, I just had a hunch...
These claims that Ukrainian terror cells blew up a transmission pole are just dubious. A single pole that is used to supply some random village?
Oil depots were used to supply the military across the border. It is a valid target. Rail war is reportedly conducted by Russians and Belarusians opposing their regimes. You just lump all of this into a heaping pile and try to justify deliberately striking actual power stations that power civilian homes and hospitals. You are one of the 70% that support the war, and this is why Russia needs to be isolated from the civilized world.
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On September 12 2022 04:18 2Pacalypse- wrote:
This thread needs to cool down a bit. I know the emotions run high due to the nature of what we're discussing here, but it's important to remember that this *is* a discussion. This is not a battlefield. We best leave fighting to actual soldiers.
Throwing in personal insults into every post not only makes for boring reading, but it also degrades the discussion to the point that it becomes impossible to use this thread as a way to keep up to date on the war and to read various perspectives about the war from our TL members.
Now I can't start handing out warnings and bans retrospectively as I'm pretty sure I'd have to moderate everyone at some point. So in the interest of keeping things fair, consider this post as a warning to keep the discussion grounded in actual arguments, not endless ad hominems.
I saw this late, but hopefully my last post isn't ad hominem.
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Russian Federation617 Posts
On September 12 2022 04:23 food wrote:Show nested quote +On September 12 2022 04:03 Ardias wrote:On September 12 2022 03:43 food wrote:On September 12 2022 03:34 zeo wrote:On September 12 2022 03:00 food wrote:On September 12 2022 02:38 Dav1oN wrote:
Russia just attacked critical electrical/water civilian infrastructure in 5 of the eastern region with missiles. Many cities are in blackout. This is the only way they can compensate for their retarted army. Hopefully no negotiations until kremlin state is disassembled into pieces If this goes on, what's the response? Allow Ukraine to retaliate with ATACMS? They can reach many targets in Russia. Does this get us closer to UN/NATO involvement? It was nice of Biden not to designate them as a terrorist state, now they are deliberately attacking civilian infrastructure. Quite a few posters in this thread have stated that making life hard for the common man amplifies discontent and accelerates regime change. The government in Kiev has been attacking critical civilian infrastructure in Russian and LNR/DNR controlled areas for months now; nuclear power plants, electrical distribution, water distribution networks and bridges We shouldn't jump to conclusions though. The UN should form a special committee within the next month or so and send them to each power plant and check what is really going on. Is the government in Kiev shelling its own power plants or is it Russia? After that I think a strongly worded statement is in order /s Seriously, I wrote about this happening yesterday. True to all the cum-drinking memes, a Serbian emerges that has a well thought out response that points the finger back at Ukraine, although the difference is it's the Ukrainian territory that Russia seized and a Ukrainian nuclear plant that Russian military parks their military vehicles at and uses as cover. Please share what critial infrastructure Ukraine has been attacking in Russia, you seem to know something others don't. Official report was that power lines from Kursk Atomic Power Plant were repeteadly blown up in August. https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5514103https://t.me/milinfolive/88268UA helos were attacking oil storage depot in April https://t.me/uniannet/43301There were multiple reports on the rail war conducted in Russia https://t.me/uniannet/47095https://t.me/milinfolive/86641 Is this the actual quality of your retorts? Thanks for saving me time on reading your other stuff, I just had a hunch... These claims that Ukrainian terror cells blew up a transmission pole are just dubious. A single pole that is used to supply some random village? Oil depots were used to supply the military across the border. It is a valid target. Rail war is reportedly conducted by Russians and Belarusians opposing their regimes. You just lump all of this into a heaping pile and try to justify deliberately striking actual power stations that power civilian homes and hospitals. You are one of the 70% that support the war, and this is why Russia needs to be isolated from the civilized world.
You asked for the information, I've provided it.
Not one pole, but six. Similar action near ZAPP led to blackout of the whole Zaporozhie and Kherson regions for a few hours, or even couple of days in some places.
Not many citizens in Russia have access to explosives to blow up the rail. Though it may be so.
There is also Times articles about AFU SpecOps units working behind the border, reposted by UA news agencies.
https://t.me/uniannet/61715
Oil depot is also critical infrastructure object, though of course it is also used for the military.
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Bombing stuff in Russia is fair game as long as civilians aren't targeted. They sowed the wind.
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On September 12 2022 02:49 Artesimo wrote:Show nested quote +On September 12 2022 02:38 Dav1oN wrote:
Russia just attacked critical electrical/water civilian infrastructure in 5 of the eastern region with missiles. Many cities are in blackout. This is the only way they can compensate for their retarted army. Hopefully no negotiations until kremlin state is disassembled into pieces I have the suspicion that the interest in negotiations russia is possibly signalling is to buy time so their defence can get a better foothold and/or to test western will to restore ukraines borders rather than to just end the war. If negotiations start there would probably be an expectation to reduce fighting and the west also had less reasons to ramp up their aid. entirely possible but the problem for Russia is they did that exact thing before already.
I doubt Ukraine is going to step on the breaks now even if Russia was serious for realz this time.
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On September 12 2022 04:35 Sent. wrote:
Bombing stuff in Russia is fair game as long as civilians aren't targeted. They sowed the wind.
Is it worth it though? It seems Russia is losing ground, don't want to corner/give Putin/Russia excuses to use nukes
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On September 12 2022 04:43 GoTuNk! wrote:Show nested quote +On September 12 2022 04:35 Sent. wrote:
Bombing stuff in Russia is fair game as long as civilians aren't targeted. They sowed the wind. Is it worth it though? It seems Russia is losing ground, don't want to corner/give Putin/Russia excuses to use nukes lets not jump strait to the hyperbole of hyperboles.
The escalation is to formal declarations of war and mobilization, not ending the world in nuclear fire.
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On September 12 2022 04:43 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On September 12 2022 02:49 Artesimo wrote:On September 12 2022 02:38 Dav1oN wrote:
Russia just attacked critical electrical/water civilian infrastructure in 5 of the eastern region with missiles. Many cities are in blackout. This is the only way they can compensate for their retarted army. Hopefully no negotiations until kremlin state is disassembled into pieces I have the suspicion that the interest in negotiations russia is possibly signalling is to buy time so their defence can get a better foothold and/or to test western will to restore ukraines borders rather than to just end the war. If negotiations start there would probably be an expectation to reduce fighting and the west also had less reasons to ramp up their aid. entirely possible but the problem for Russia is they did that exact thing before already. I doubt Ukraine is going to step on the breaks now even if Russia was serious for realz this time.
Oh yeah I don't believe there is even the slightest chance ukraine is taking them up on that unless russia is asking to surrender. Which they don't, so its just a thing that is thrown out there because I guess it does not hurt to try if someone bites.
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On September 12 2022 04:43 GoTuNk! wrote:Show nested quote +On September 12 2022 04:35 Sent. wrote:
Bombing stuff in Russia is fair game as long as civilians aren't targeted. They sowed the wind. Is it worth it though? It seems Russia is losing ground, don't want to corner/give Putin/Russia excuses to use nukes
If they'll use bombings on Russian territory as an excuse to nuke Ukraine it means they always planned to use nukes as a last restort in case conventional means won't be enough to reach their goals.
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On September 12 2022 04:48 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On September 12 2022 04:43 GoTuNk! wrote:On September 12 2022 04:35 Sent. wrote:
Bombing stuff in Russia is fair game as long as civilians aren't targeted. They sowed the wind. Is it worth it though? It seems Russia is losing ground, don't want to corner/give Putin/Russia excuses to use nukes lets not jump strait to the hyperbole of hyperboles. The escalation is to formal declarations of war and mobilization, not ending the world in nuclear fire.
Fair enough. War sucks, as anyone here I want Russia defeated but I'm worried about pushing too hard too soon. Real politiks say they must be given an "acceptable" defeat.
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On September 12 2022 04:57 GoTuNk! wrote:Show nested quote +On September 12 2022 04:48 Gorsameth wrote:On September 12 2022 04:43 GoTuNk! wrote:On September 12 2022 04:35 Sent. wrote:
Bombing stuff in Russia is fair game as long as civilians aren't targeted. They sowed the wind. Is it worth it though? It seems Russia is losing ground, don't want to corner/give Putin/Russia excuses to use nukes lets not jump strait to the hyperbole of hyperboles. The escalation is to formal declarations of war and mobilization, not ending the world in nuclear fire. Fair enough. War sucks, as anyone here I want Russia defeated but I'm worried about pushing too hard too soon. Real politiks say they must be given an "acceptable" defeat.
I agree with that partially. An "acceptable defeat" is realistically the best possible outcome, but I think Russia needs to be forced to accept it. Ukraine can't act with the mindset that it has to "give" something to Russia to stop the war.
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On September 12 2022 05:02 Sent. wrote:Show nested quote +On September 12 2022 04:57 GoTuNk! wrote:On September 12 2022 04:48 Gorsameth wrote:On September 12 2022 04:43 GoTuNk! wrote:On September 12 2022 04:35 Sent. wrote:
Bombing stuff in Russia is fair game as long as civilians aren't targeted. They sowed the wind. Is it worth it though? It seems Russia is losing ground, don't want to corner/give Putin/Russia excuses to use nukes lets not jump strait to the hyperbole of hyperboles. The escalation is to formal declarations of war and mobilization, not ending the world in nuclear fire. Fair enough. War sucks, as anyone here I want Russia defeated but I'm worried about pushing too hard too soon. Real politiks say they must be given an "acceptable" defeat. I agree with that partially. An "acceptable defeat" is realistically the best possible outcome, but I think Russia needs to be forced to accept it. Ukraine can't act with the mindset that it has to "give" something to Russia to stop the war.
Does an "acceptable" defeat even exist for Russia? One where Russia actually loses and gives up stuff?
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On September 12 2022 05:15 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On September 12 2022 05:02 Sent. wrote:On September 12 2022 04:57 GoTuNk! wrote:On September 12 2022 04:48 Gorsameth wrote:On September 12 2022 04:43 GoTuNk! wrote:On September 12 2022 04:35 Sent. wrote:
Bombing stuff in Russia is fair game as long as civilians aren't targeted. They sowed the wind. Is it worth it though? It seems Russia is losing ground, don't want to corner/give Putin/Russia excuses to use nukes lets not jump strait to the hyperbole of hyperboles. The escalation is to formal declarations of war and mobilization, not ending the world in nuclear fire. Fair enough. War sucks, as anyone here I want Russia defeated but I'm worried about pushing too hard too soon. Real politiks say they must be given an "acceptable" defeat. I agree with that partially. An "acceptable defeat" is realistically the best possible outcome, but I think Russia needs to be forced to accept it. Ukraine can't act with the mindset that it has to "give" something to Russia to stop the war. Does an "acceptable" defeat even exist for Russia? One where Russia actually loses and gives up stuff?
Certainly we don't want Ukranian tanks rolling into Russia while they bomb the world. "Acceptable" would be a crippled Russia back into their border.
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I'm pretty sure I just saw a video of some part of the Kharkiv offensive cross the border into Russia, but this might not be particularly significant.
Also, for people who know more about terrain and capabilities, is the Oskil river actually a natural barrier for modern tech? ISW seems to think not:
P. S. I think we've all had a chance to say our piece, so I'm happy to focus on substance alone from here on out.
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United States43532 Posts
On September 11 2022 17:10 Ardias wrote:
1) “Ukraine will no longer be satisfied with Russia’s “surrender” of Crimea and Donbas, or reparations for the “invasion.” Kyiv, together with Western allies, will seek "complete surrender and demilitarization of the Russian Federation" - Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov
Well, I guess this war will be long. UA seem to be very eager after their success in Kharkov region.
2) Meanwhile Kadyrov published a speech in his tg channel. It's long, but I'll pick the main point:
"If today or tomorrow changes are not made in the conduct of a special military operation, I will be forced to contact the country's leadership in order to explain to them the situation on earth. She is very interesting, “awesome” I would say. "
Other parts of the speech included promises to return the lost territories, to talk with military correspondents so they would be less critical of the MoD and government, assurances that AFRF would move up to Odessa etc.
So overall it seems that he is trying to take even more leading role in the war and get points for himself out of this defeat.
3) Reports are coming that last working reactor on ZAPP is being shut down.
It's not reasonable for Ukraine to settle for less than their national security after this senseless, unprovoked, and illegal attack. Russia gave guarantees of territorial integrity. Days before the attack Russia was still insisting that it had no plans for aggression.
What would you have Ukraine accept? Promises that have already been broken? Words from a known liar?
The rabid dog must be put down.
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On September 12 2022 06:11 Ghanburighan wrote:I'm pretty sure I just saw a video of some part of the Kharkiv offensive cross the border into Russia, but this might not be particularly significant. Also, for people who know more about terrain and capabilities, is the Oskil river actually a natural barrier for modern tech? ISW seems to think not: https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1569021402442862594P. S. I think we've all had a chance to say our piece, so I'm happy to focus on substance alone from here on out.
It depends on what tech you are talking about but TLDR; yes. You will not be traveling across it on the vehicles that claim to be able to travel through rivers. Even the most sealed vehicles will be extremely vulnerable at best and most likely will sink.
Soviets if anything built the go to tech for pontoon bridges but you have to be extremely lucky to be able to use it enough to be worth it. At some point between drones, orbital cameras, troops the pontoon bridge will be discovered. At that point they can be easily blown up with by artillery, drones, airplanes. The troops that have made it across will now be technically encircled and will have little to no chance to continue existing.
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Russian Federation617 Posts
On September 12 2022 06:30 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On September 11 2022 17:10 Ardias wrote:
1) “Ukraine will no longer be satisfied with Russia’s “surrender” of Crimea and Donbas, or reparations for the “invasion.” Kyiv, together with Western allies, will seek "complete surrender and demilitarization of the Russian Federation" - Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov
Well, I guess this war will be long. UA seem to be very eager after their success in Kharkov region.
2) Meanwhile Kadyrov published a speech in his tg channel. It's long, but I'll pick the main point:
"If today or tomorrow changes are not made in the conduct of a special military operation, I will be forced to contact the country's leadership in order to explain to them the situation on earth. She is very interesting, “awesome” I would say. "
Other parts of the speech included promises to return the lost territories, to talk with military correspondents so they would be less critical of the MoD and government, assurances that AFRF would move up to Odessa etc.
So overall it seems that he is trying to take even more leading role in the war and get points for himself out of this defeat.
3) Reports are coming that last working reactor on ZAPP is being shut down. It's not reasonable for Ukraine to settle for less than their national security after this senseless, unprovoked, and illegal attack. Russia gave guarantees of territorial integrity. Days before the attack Russia was still insisting that it had no plans for aggression. What would you have Ukraine accept? Promises that have already been broken? Words from a known liar? The rabid dog must be put down.
I was not questioning reasoning. I was merely pointing that with the stated goals the war would drag even longer and such statements (though we already discussed, that statement was rephrased from the original) may be the result of UA success in Kharkov. Plus later I wondered, what measures UA is implying by "removing Russian desire to make this happen again".
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On September 12 2022 06:11 Ghanburighan wrote:I'm pretty sure I just saw a video of some part of the Kharkiv offensive cross the border into Russia, but this might not be particularly significant. Also, for people who know more about terrain and capabilities, is the Oskil river actually a natural barrier for modern tech? ISW seems to think not: https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1569021402442862594P. S. I think we've all had a chance to say our piece, so I'm happy to focus on substance alone from here on out.
It is not an obstacle like the dniepr, but every river that you can't just drive and wade through can be a serious challenge. For the oskil river, there might be passages where the water is shallow enough to drive straight through it at which point it 'only' becomes a regular bottleneck. My guess is that them questioning it is more about questioning russias ability to prevent ukraine from crossing it rather than the technical challenge.
In general, what makes river crossings hard is less the technological limitation, but rather how practical it is in a combat situation. Your troops are incredibly vulnerable during the build-up phase on either sides, and the more of a technical challenge a crossing is, the longer those phases take because you won't be able to put up as many bridges as fast. I have to admit, I don't know what bridging equipment ukraine has at its disposal, but even with last gen tech, the german army would have been able to put a vehicle carrying bridge in less than 15minutes (only speaking about the installing of the bridge itself) on any part of the river I think. If you can find an area where the river is not wider than 24m you are even looking at a less than 8min of bridgelaying time (though narrower usually means faster flowing, I am sure they would still manage though).
So my guess is that even if ukraine has no specialised equipment, and all they can do is drive up with a bunch of trucks with pontoons on them, unload them and put up the bridge, I am confident they would still be able to set up a bridge in less than 30min at even the worst river spot. Challenging that sounds incredibly difficult, even if your army is not currently in the process of hastily falling back and throwing together a defence. You would want to have possible crossings mapped out in advance, either entrenched positions near them that are artillery resistant, or rapid response forces in the area. You need sufficient surveillance of all possible crossings, the artillery to prevent a crossing that doesn't get suppressed by the enemy...
So my guess is that the ISW is questioning russias ability to either spot such a crossing in time, or muster up the required force concentration to respond to it. Or maybe they were just talking about russias general plan to hold territory and not the river specifically. But either way, while any bridging operation is challenging, I would rate this as one where given the right equipment, its even feasibly to do bridging operations for fast raids.
EDIT: Sermokala is also right on the money regarding the vehicles that are supposedly able to swim. The prep time to make them close enough to waterproof is long and when you are at the other side you have to bring the vehicle into a combat ready condition again first - if it did not sink. Especially with a relatively narrow river like this, they seem like a total meme to me.
EDIT2: Or, after reading the tweet chain another time, maybe their statement was more on the russian plans of defending territory in general rather than the river defensive line. Not sure.
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EPT
