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On January 19 2026 00:47 Yurie wrote:Show nested quote +On January 18 2026 21:41 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:
So after the Syrian government took the enclave in Aleppo in about 48 hours (most of that was waiting to see if SDF took one of the various truce deals) it became obvious that the SDF is really just a bunch of fractured factions where everyone except the die hard PKK guys really doesn't want to fight the government.
So after more skirmishes the government decided to take all the land west of the river, which they did in hours.
Problem is the tribes took that as a challenge and they first folded SDF in Deir ez-Zor like a lawn chair (and in about the same time). Government forces entering got a participation trophy and control of the oil fields.
Then the tribes in Raqqa governorate decided they didn't want to be worse and just took the city in a few hours.
Current situation is that the pace of the government's advance is mostly depending on how many red lights they have to stop at because everything is just being captured in front of them and then turned over.
Edit: And Al-Shara has just published an edict granting full citizenship to all Kurds in Syria (even the ones not born there), guaranteed the right to their language, made Nowruz a national holiday and guaranteed their protection.
I wonder if the offer of making the SDF political leader governor of Hasakah governorate still stands (probably, most Syrians seem to think that's a good idea). Seems to be in line with what Turkey wants as well? Getting the most unhappy Kurds out of Turkey without there being a Kurdish state to unbalance Turkey itself.
Pretty much.
They just signed a "ceasefire agreement". It's SDF surrendering, the Syrian state getting everything they want. As expected kurdish leadership in Hasakah governorate (and police force too it seems) under the Syrian state. Individual integration of SDF members but not as units.
The only people who have to leave are non-syrian PKK leadership. Probably not to many of those and I guess they will go to Iraq.
Right wing Israeli politicians being extremely salty and calling Erdogan and Al-Shara ISIS members. To bad that their dream of a fractured Syria and civil war 2.0 is dead.
Al Hirji gang is only a matter of time, will probably be non-violent. Now that they are useless they just have to wait for Israel to get tired of them and they really aren't a threat to the state. Given that he seems to be a criminal idiot I think that won't take too long.
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Well, now. If Trump wants to take responsibility for peace in Gaza for life, the only thing we are left with is to wish him luck. Macron already declined his role in this farce and I am not even surprised with that. Wonder if he find moron who will be ready to pay him for membership in this historical endevour.
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Any peace board with Tony Blair and Putin (Invited to join) is truly a farce.
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Even if there was Jesus Christ The Fairest Redeemer Of All Humanity himself inside this council, it still would be a farce, because president made it clear others are only to give this assembly illusion of any importance or credibility, and be his personal circlejerk show. It is already as much of waste of time as those "peace talks" over the Ukraine.
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Fuck me, I guess it kind of got lost in the shuffle of Trump's muzzle velocity bullshit, but the board of peace members were announced, and oh boy, it's a doozy:
The members of the Executive Board of the Board of Peace were announced on 17 January 2026. They are:
Nickolay Mladenov – High Representative for Gaza
Marco Rubio – United States Secretary of State
Steve Witkoff – United States Special Envoy to the Middle East
Jared Kushner – Donald Trump's son-in-law
Tony Blair – Former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
Marc Rowan – CEO of Apollo Global Management
Ajay Banga – President of the World Bank
Robert Gabriel Jr. – American political advisor
So, the board of peace consists of 1 Bulgarian diplomat working for USA think thank, 1 Trump son in law (his official qualification from the wikipedia article) , 1 random ex Stephen Miller staffer, president of the World bank, 1 CEO of an asset management firm, Tony Blair for some reason, plus Rubio and Witkoff who just do everything.
If you want to be a permanent member, you get to give Trump 1 billion, this is indistinguishable from an Austin Powers movie plot.
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Rememeber when "House of Cards" was a big hit but people tought it was a bit too unrealistic?
Turns out it was only unrealistic because most people in it actually behaved too smart...
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Yeah, every now and then I go on to re-watch VEEP and every time it's less and less realistic, I mean, it used to be too absurd, but nowadays, it's too vanilla, even their most outrageous episodes seem like a normal Tuesday for Trump administration.
A cool House of Cards type show could be around Biden's White House, starting with Trump assassinating Qasem Soleimani as a goodbye fuck you to them, chaos of Afghanistan withdrawal, October 7th and Nethyanahu basically laughing in Biden's face while he refused to negotiate and waited out until Trump came back, then the debate, the clans, Hunter, Kamala, now that would be absolute cinema.
On the other hand, the current White House would be like a cross over between Revenge of the Sith and Idiocracy.
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It is important to remember that when this Board of Peace fails, the blame falls solely on the barbaric Palestinians. No one else should be blamed when the board's only achievement is one hotel being built. Palestinians should also always be expected to accept any deal offered to them, even if it is just a copy of the Board of Peace plan.
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Yeah, honestly, I was going into the articles and Wiki entry I read with the expectation of the board being incredibly skewed in the direction of Israel, but, for some reason, there are no representatives of Israel or Palestine on it, which seems weird to be honest.
I guess it makes sense if you are trying to keep a veneer or neutrality, but that is automatically disqualified since all Trump representatives are incredibly biased towards Israel.
It's all pretty dumb, which is par for the course for the way Trump/Whitkoff have been operating so far...
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Norway28874 Posts
Jonas Gahr Støre (Norwegian prime minister) was also asked, but turned down the offer.
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When even servile PL gov seems to be reluclant with going along US proposal, you know it is going to end miserable.
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I'd hope that our government has enough brains to stand with our European allies rather than bending over backwards for the insane orange man from beyond the Atlantic
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I think the way things are now it's safe to assume our president and PM should be able to block each other initiatives, which is a nice excuse to dodge the responsibity of picking a side.
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Israel military reported to accept death toll of around 70,000 in Gaza
(There appears to be some amount of counter noise from Israeli military but I've seen this headline a lot I assume it's trustworthy)
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-military-reported-accept-death-toll-around-70000-gaza-2026-01-30/
"The Gaza health ministry publishes names and ages of those it records as killed. It now says the toll stands at over 71,000, including more than 480 killed in Israeli attacks since the start of a U.S.-brokered ceasefire in October."
Also doesn't include people who died of causes related to the genocide (such as starvation or lack of medicine available), nor the people who are still unaccounted for but are clearly just buried under buildings.
"It says many thousands more are still buried beneath the rubble of Gaza's destroyed cities. It does not distinguish between civilians and fighters but has identified most of the dead as women or children."
Shoutout to a bunch of people including some here but let's pick Lonerbox this time, who I'm sure feels great about the time he spent perusing the Hamas website to show how many enemy fighters Israel was killing.
On September 29 2024 19:16 Nebuchad wrote:
Sorry I'll develop there's no need to be a dick. There is no winning this conversation so there's no point in having it. When the death toll is going to be confirmed to be higher, absolutely none of you is going to care, you'll just talk about how wars are ugly and they kill people, and we won't feel good that we were right either because it means more people have died, which is bad.
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Well, it turns out that the numbers, as accepted by IDF a few times since October 7th as basically accurate, are, in fact, accurate, despite people having to emphasize "according to HAMAS ministry", just like they were for previous incursions and wars there, shocker!
Seems like we are going to see something go down in Iran soon. Trump needs more distractions, same with Nethyanahu, so I believe at the very minimum a bombing campaign of IRGC targets is going to go down, how long and with what goal, remains to be seen, but I don't think it's likely the "armada" is just going to turn around and go back without being used.
Unfortunately, IRGC is embedded in many population centers, and I'm pretty sure the civilian death tool will be high no matter which option Trump picks.
My best case scenario is that Ayatollah sees what is coming, packs his bags and takes as many high ranking IRGC people with him on a plane to Moscow before anything happens, and civilian leadership in Iran calls for elections, but again, I don't think that's likely.
Most likely seems to be a bombing campaign that fails to kill him and a rally around the flag effect, Iran is big and better defended then Venezuela, plus, it has much more offensive capabilities, they might cut off the strait, they will lob shit at bases and Israel and if they kill some USA soldiers this might be used as a justification for boots on the ground, in which case, it's going to be a slog.
For selfish reasons, I guess IRGC and Trump's ministry of war going at it would be good for European interests, because if they are focusing on them they are less likely to focus on their NSS strategy of toppling unfriendly governments in EU, but those might be different departments.
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Holy fuck, Iran killed several 10000 of their own citizens in suppressing the revolt against their regime and still Israel manages to be the warmonger in the area by doing a "preventive" strike against Iran that was just reported to backing down in talks with the USA.
Guess now that Iran has to save face those talks have broken down and Iran has no other way but to be invaded.
It's kinda hard to feel sorry for these murderous assholes in Iran but guess having shitty neighbours feels bad even if you are a murderous regime...
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The strikes today are still a part of a pressure campaign, so talks are very much not dead.
Israel just works as a conveniently deniable 'mad man'.
That said, so far nothing indicates that US is capable of a quick and easy regime change.
I wonder what Trump does if there are no results before the mid-terms.
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EPT
