|
NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source. |
No one is saying that a ceasefire is a one and done solution for the whole problem, we are saying that it's a necessary first step to stop the suffering and allow any sort of positive change to start.
In an ideal world, which you described, let's also imagine that Israeli also all decide to forgive Palestinians, let's say that they elect someone with a platform of 2 state solution who then negotiates with the UN to organize free elections in Gaza.
In these elections, a real alternative, backed by UN and Arab states is presented, let's say it's this guy:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salam_Fayyad
This guy runs on a platform of growing food on land that Israeli settlers give back. He runs on a platform of outlawing Hamas (which is no longer necessary because as you said, Palestinians forgave Israelis) and organizing a real, regulated police force. Since everyone on both sides is now friends, Israel gets to take advantage of a very young and cheap labor force while Palestinians get to take their fair salaries and re-invest them back into their homes.
The international community pitches in and helps with rebuilding Gaza.
No one is suggesting this from Israel's side tho. And for any of this to be real, a ceasefire is a necessary first step, as is the end of this war, sooner that happens the higher chances of any successful solution become.
Longer this war goes, less things to live in and more reasons to hate each other are left in Gaza.
|
United States42772 Posts
On August 14 2025 01:26 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On August 14 2025 00:50 KwarK wrote:
Let’s imagine for a second an exceedingly unlikely scenario. There’s a ceasefire and a new government in Gaza. Iran stops supplying Gazans with weapons and the million young, displaced, radicalized, justifiably vengeful, and propagandized Gazans who grew up under Hamas rule all decide to forgive Israel. No more rocket attacks on Israel, no more answering air strikes. Completely impossible but let’s imagine it anyway.
Let’s imagine what that Gaza looks like. What it’s birth rate looks like. What its employment rate looks like. What its major industries and economic activities are. How its government is financed, how it provides services and so forth. Where people live.
What I’m imagining is still an overcrowded intergenerational refugee camp with no meaningful economic activity taking place, no mobility, wholly dependent upon outside aid, and no end in sight. What I’m imagining is large numbers of people who have been fucked over by the world who are rightfully furious about it. And people with an awful lot of time on their hands to think about how furious they are and with absolutely no prospect of any of the issues changing.
I’m often told I have no empathy for Gazans and I think that that couldn’t be further from the truth. I don’t think they’re evil or inhuman or monsters or whatever, I put myself in their shoes to the extent that I am able and think that their fury is wholly warranted. It makes sense. They’re not evil, they’re normal people reacting to an awful situation.
And my hypothesis that a Gaza under a ceasefire still turns to radical violent politics isn’t exactly untested. I’m arguing it as a hypothetical but we’ve already seen a Gaza under a ceasefire, it turned to Hamas. By the polling Hamas would still win an election held today.
A ceasefire isn’t enough. If we want Gazans to choose peace then we need to give them more than that because right now the argument for an end to violence isn’t convincing Gazans. They need a future they can believe in for themselves and their families and “this but without the airstrikes” doesn’t cut it.
A ceasefire is just things getting worse more slowly for as long as it lasts, and then when it inevitably ends it’ll be back to airstrikes. This is why I referred to other conflicts such as the Korean war, which resulted in a split between two oppressed nations, one becoming prosperous and one remaining oppressed. There are a lot of parallels between Korea and Israel-Palestine. It's a great example showing that oppression and war doesn't have to be the end of things. The two split countries' administrations imposed completely different policies post-war and experienced completely different fates. North Korea is still poor and oppressed while South Korea is rich and, well, very hierarchical but certainly not oppressed, and consistently moving away from corruption and authoritarianism. At the same time Koreans are technically still at war, and the threat is constant. It's so prevalent that South Koreans have a big gun culture that is at least on par with that of US Americans. They celebrate guns. And the military is always ready to strike if it becomes necessary. They're constantly worried. And yet people aren't being slaughtered. The war has turned cold for many years. I don't see a reason why Israel-Palestine doesn't have a realistic chance of experiencing a similar outcome. Sure, one of the sides could remain oppressed. That would presumably be the Palestinians under Hamas rule. But this doesn't mean there has to be a continuous hot war leading to tens of thousands of casualties. North Korea hasn't attacked South Korea in a long time. And that's not because there aren't any tensions on the border. Tensions remain. But it's under control.
Gaza and NK couldn't be more different I'm afraid.
NK has literally turned self sufficiency into a state religion (it's called Juche). In NK everyone has a job to do, everyone has a part to play and a purpose, there's more work to do than there are people. People are starving because a shitload of that work is non productive and used to reinforce and sustain the power of the state, but it exists. NK is a much larger country with plentiful natural resources.
Gaza is the opposite. Its infrastructure has been destroyed by years of cannibalization and bombing, economic activity is essentially zero (especially now the borders are closed), labour cannot participate in the society because there is none to speak of. It is the ruins of a city that people are not permitted to leave, a city that has no economic or social or logistical or commercial reason to exist other than to house displaced Palestinians. There are millions of people but they have been robbed of exercising agency, they've grown up without the ability to impact their situation through the choices they make. They can't provide for their families, they can only wait and hope the aid shipments come through. They may be given something, they may not be, but it's outside of their control with zero prospect of ever having control. Hell, a bomb might fall on the building the next day and there's nothing they can do about it.
Gaza has a population density of around 6,000/sq km while NK has a population density estimated at 220. Gaza is not a nation, it's a prison camp, it's just somewhere Gazans are held, run by a ruthless prison gang (Hamas).
You took great offence to my previous comment about the fertility rates in Gaza but it's not their fault and it's not a race thing, if you sentenced a shitload of teenagers of any race to life in a mixed sex prison you're going to get a lot of sex. There's not much else to do and the Gazan teenagers were raised by Gazan teenagers. Before the war the median age was something like 17.8 years old and I think it's extremely difficult for anyone to conceptualize how devastating that is for a society. All adults, childless adults, parents, grandparents, all working together, are outnumbered by children. Children, who were themselves raised by children, having children. It's not their fault, for them it's normal, in Europe it may be rational to get a university education and career and a mortgage and so forth before having two children because we're used to a society in which we exercise agency. European adults wrestle with questions of groceries and work/family balance and housing and so forth which Gazans don't because for Gazans that's all fucked anyway. They're always worried about food and housing and security.
Gazans are not going to work in their fields, labour in their factories, save in their banks, invest in their infrastructure, and so forth. Even in the impossible hypothetical in which everyone in the region forgives each other and forsakes violence. They're going to live in an overcrowded ruined city with destroyed infrastructure filled with children with no skills or training and food aid will be distributed. They will continue to have lots of children (and again, I don't blame them for that) for the same reasons that they have for the last sixty years. And those children growing up in Gaza will be justifiably furious at the world for condemning them to the prison until it eventually spills over into violence. Again, to labour this point because people seem to be confused by it, I absolutely hate how doomed it is.
|
On August 13 2025 17:49 Jankisa wrote:
What other leverage does Hamas have? Maybe I'm reading and listening to wildly different sources, but logically and from everything I've read Hamas has the hostages and that is the last thing that they have to negotiate with.
If nothing, the hardliners in Israel have said over and over again that the war doesn't stop until Hamas is destroyed, not that they have to keep going until they get hostages, because the longer it goes and closer they get to that the less there is a chance that hostages survive.
They agreed, in January in the ceasefire agreement that consisted of 3 phases to release all of them in exchange for peace. This is the ceasefire that Israel broke and I mentioned a few times in this thread, because they don't want to end the war.
I want for this war to end. Everyone except Nethyanahu and other hardliners in Israel wants this.
The longer this goes the more suffering there is, less hope there is, that is the point.
This is why I think that everyone who's goal is to stop the suffering should spend most of their time criticizing Israels government and making them stop.
You are right that it is basically the only thing they have, the other thing they have is their control. In most wars that are this one sided, or get this one sided they surrender to save their people because they realize it is hopeless. Then they either blow their brains out, or negotiate asylum somewhere. I believe it has been on the table for a long time for the Hamas leadership to get safe passage to Qatar in exchange for them going away and releasing the hostages.
I think keeping the hostages just gives more justification for Netanyahu to continue the war then it makes him slow down.
|
United States42772 Posts
On August 14 2025 01:33 Jankisa wrote:No one is saying that a ceasefire is a one and done solution for the whole problem, we are saying that it's a necessary first step to stop the suffering and allow any sort of positive change to start. In an ideal world, which you described, let's also imagine that Israeli also all decide to forgive Palestinians, let's say that they elect someone with a platform of 2 state solution who then negotiates with the UN to organize free elections in Gaza. In these elections, a real alternative, backed by UN and Arab states is presented, let's say it's this guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salam_FayyadThis guy runs on a platform of growing food on land that Israeli settlers give back. He runs on a platform of outlawing Hamas (which is no longer necessary because as you said, Palestinians forgave Israelis) and organizing a real, regulated police force. Since everyone on both sides is now friends, Israel gets to take advantage of a very young and cheap labor force while Palestinians get to take their fair salaries and re-invest them back into their homes. The international community pitches in and helps with rebuilding Gaza. No one is suggesting this from Israel's side tho. And for any of this to be real, a ceasefire is a necessary first step, as is the end of this war, sooner that happens the higher chances of any successful solution become. Longer this war goes, less things to live in and more reasons to hate each other are left in Gaza.
The Israeli settlers stealing the farms in a West Bank issue. The West Bank has much more viability as an entity than Gaza does.
But in any case, your ideas are pleasant and I'd like to imagine a world in which Israel is opened to Gazan labour and economic integration becomes social and political integration over time. My problem with it is that there's no path there, not by sanctioning Israel, not by denying arms sales, not by overthrowing Netanyahu, not by getting Iran on board, not by investing a trillion dollars in the problem. It's just too late.
|
On August 14 2025 03:02 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On August 14 2025 01:33 Jankisa wrote:No one is saying that a ceasefire is a one and done solution for the whole problem, we are saying that it's a necessary first step to stop the suffering and allow any sort of positive change to start. In an ideal world, which you described, let's also imagine that Israeli also all decide to forgive Palestinians, let's say that they elect someone with a platform of 2 state solution who then negotiates with the UN to organize free elections in Gaza. In these elections, a real alternative, backed by UN and Arab states is presented, let's say it's this guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salam_FayyadThis guy runs on a platform of growing food on land that Israeli settlers give back. He runs on a platform of outlawing Hamas (which is no longer necessary because as you said, Palestinians forgave Israelis) and organizing a real, regulated police force. Since everyone on both sides is now friends, Israel gets to take advantage of a very young and cheap labor force while Palestinians get to take their fair salaries and re-invest them back into their homes. The international community pitches in and helps with rebuilding Gaza. No one is suggesting this from Israel's side tho. And for any of this to be real, a ceasefire is a necessary first step, as is the end of this war, sooner that happens the higher chances of any successful solution become. Longer this war goes, less things to live in and more reasons to hate each other are left in Gaza. The Israeli settlers stealing the farms in a West Bank issue. The West Bank has much more viability as an entity than Gaza does. But in any case, your ideas are pleasant and I'd like to imagine a world in which Israel is opened to Gazan labour and economic integration becomes social and political integration over time. My problem with it is that there's no path there, not by sanctioning Israel, not by denying arms sales, not by overthrowing Netanyahu, not by getting Iran on board, not by investing a trillion dollars in the problem. It's just too late.
I do not believe it is too late, but I agree with most of the rest. It would however take a global effort, which given the half effort in Ukraine, which is closer to affecting them directly, it certainly won't happen.
|
On August 14 2025 02:57 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On August 14 2025 01:26 Magic Powers wrote:On August 14 2025 00:50 KwarK wrote:
Let’s imagine for a second an exceedingly unlikely scenario. There’s a ceasefire and a new government in Gaza. Iran stops supplying Gazans with weapons and the million young, displaced, radicalized, justifiably vengeful, and propagandized Gazans who grew up under Hamas rule all decide to forgive Israel. No more rocket attacks on Israel, no more answering air strikes. Completely impossible but let’s imagine it anyway.
Let’s imagine what that Gaza looks like. What it’s birth rate looks like. What its employment rate looks like. What its major industries and economic activities are. How its government is financed, how it provides services and so forth. Where people live.
What I’m imagining is still an overcrowded intergenerational refugee camp with no meaningful economic activity taking place, no mobility, wholly dependent upon outside aid, and no end in sight. What I’m imagining is large numbers of people who have been fucked over by the world who are rightfully furious about it. And people with an awful lot of time on their hands to think about how furious they are and with absolutely no prospect of any of the issues changing.
I’m often told I have no empathy for Gazans and I think that that couldn’t be further from the truth. I don’t think they’re evil or inhuman or monsters or whatever, I put myself in their shoes to the extent that I am able and think that their fury is wholly warranted. It makes sense. They’re not evil, they’re normal people reacting to an awful situation.
And my hypothesis that a Gaza under a ceasefire still turns to radical violent politics isn’t exactly untested. I’m arguing it as a hypothetical but we’ve already seen a Gaza under a ceasefire, it turned to Hamas. By the polling Hamas would still win an election held today.
A ceasefire isn’t enough. If we want Gazans to choose peace then we need to give them more than that because right now the argument for an end to violence isn’t convincing Gazans. They need a future they can believe in for themselves and their families and “this but without the airstrikes” doesn’t cut it.
A ceasefire is just things getting worse more slowly for as long as it lasts, and then when it inevitably ends it’ll be back to airstrikes. This is why I referred to other conflicts such as the Korean war, which resulted in a split between two oppressed nations, one becoming prosperous and one remaining oppressed. There are a lot of parallels between Korea and Israel-Palestine. It's a great example showing that oppression and war doesn't have to be the end of things. The two split countries' administrations imposed completely different policies post-war and experienced completely different fates. North Korea is still poor and oppressed while South Korea is rich and, well, very hierarchical but certainly not oppressed, and consistently moving away from corruption and authoritarianism. At the same time Koreans are technically still at war, and the threat is constant. It's so prevalent that South Koreans have a big gun culture that is at least on par with that of US Americans. They celebrate guns. And the military is always ready to strike if it becomes necessary. They're constantly worried. And yet people aren't being slaughtered. The war has turned cold for many years. I don't see a reason why Israel-Palestine doesn't have a realistic chance of experiencing a similar outcome. Sure, one of the sides could remain oppressed. That would presumably be the Palestinians under Hamas rule. But this doesn't mean there has to be a continuous hot war leading to tens of thousands of casualties. North Korea hasn't attacked South Korea in a long time. And that's not because there aren't any tensions on the border. Tensions remain. But it's under control. Gaza and NK couldn't be more different I'm afraid.
I don't think you do this on purpose, but I want to let you know that you make discussion impossible with a response like this.
I call the two conflicts comparable. I believe there are plenty of parallels that allow me to conclude that there is hope for Palestinians and Gaza.
You respond saying there are literally no comparisons whatsoever.
So I'm over here sitting rather middle-groundish arguing my case. I have researched the two conflicts to a degree that gives me confidence that my argument is reasonable.
Then you come and kick down the entire thing like it's a sand castle. Not with argumentation, but with a statement that poisons any further discussion. I already know, because of your statement, that if I respond again, you will not accept any of it. Nothing at all.
What reason do I have to respond to you when you do that?
By the way I have read your whole comment, just wanna mention that. I'm responding to this part in particular because I think this is at the core of our disagreements. It's not that my rationale is worse and yours is better or the other way around. It's that discussion becomes impossible with this argumentation style.
|
United States42772 Posts
On August 14 2025 03:17 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On August 14 2025 02:57 KwarK wrote:On August 14 2025 01:26 Magic Powers wrote:On August 14 2025 00:50 KwarK wrote:
Let’s imagine for a second an exceedingly unlikely scenario. There’s a ceasefire and a new government in Gaza. Iran stops supplying Gazans with weapons and the million young, displaced, radicalized, justifiably vengeful, and propagandized Gazans who grew up under Hamas rule all decide to forgive Israel. No more rocket attacks on Israel, no more answering air strikes. Completely impossible but let’s imagine it anyway.
Let’s imagine what that Gaza looks like. What it’s birth rate looks like. What its employment rate looks like. What its major industries and economic activities are. How its government is financed, how it provides services and so forth. Where people live.
What I’m imagining is still an overcrowded intergenerational refugee camp with no meaningful economic activity taking place, no mobility, wholly dependent upon outside aid, and no end in sight. What I’m imagining is large numbers of people who have been fucked over by the world who are rightfully furious about it. And people with an awful lot of time on their hands to think about how furious they are and with absolutely no prospect of any of the issues changing.
I’m often told I have no empathy for Gazans and I think that that couldn’t be further from the truth. I don’t think they’re evil or inhuman or monsters or whatever, I put myself in their shoes to the extent that I am able and think that their fury is wholly warranted. It makes sense. They’re not evil, they’re normal people reacting to an awful situation.
And my hypothesis that a Gaza under a ceasefire still turns to radical violent politics isn’t exactly untested. I’m arguing it as a hypothetical but we’ve already seen a Gaza under a ceasefire, it turned to Hamas. By the polling Hamas would still win an election held today.
A ceasefire isn’t enough. If we want Gazans to choose peace then we need to give them more than that because right now the argument for an end to violence isn’t convincing Gazans. They need a future they can believe in for themselves and their families and “this but without the airstrikes” doesn’t cut it.
A ceasefire is just things getting worse more slowly for as long as it lasts, and then when it inevitably ends it’ll be back to airstrikes. This is why I referred to other conflicts such as the Korean war, which resulted in a split between two oppressed nations, one becoming prosperous and one remaining oppressed. There are a lot of parallels between Korea and Israel-Palestine. It's a great example showing that oppression and war doesn't have to be the end of things. The two split countries' administrations imposed completely different policies post-war and experienced completely different fates. North Korea is still poor and oppressed while South Korea is rich and, well, very hierarchical but certainly not oppressed, and consistently moving away from corruption and authoritarianism. At the same time Koreans are technically still at war, and the threat is constant. It's so prevalent that South Koreans have a big gun culture that is at least on par with that of US Americans. They celebrate guns. And the military is always ready to strike if it becomes necessary. They're constantly worried. And yet people aren't being slaughtered. The war has turned cold for many years. I don't see a reason why Israel-Palestine doesn't have a realistic chance of experiencing a similar outcome. Sure, one of the sides could remain oppressed. That would presumably be the Palestinians under Hamas rule. But this doesn't mean there has to be a continuous hot war leading to tens of thousands of casualties. North Korea hasn't attacked South Korea in a long time. And that's not because there aren't any tensions on the border. Tensions remain. But it's under control. Gaza and NK couldn't be more different I'm afraid. I don't think you do this on purpose, but I want to let you know that you make discussion impossible with a response like this. I call the two conflicts comparable. I believe there are plenty of parallels that allow me to conclude that there is hope for Palestinians and Gaza. You respond saying there are literally no comparisons whatsoever. So I'm over here sitting rather middle-groundish arguing my case. I have researched the two conflicts to a degree that gives me confidence that my argument is reasonable. Then you come and kick down the entire thing like it's a sand castle. Not with argumentation, but with a statement that poisons any further discussion. I already know, because of your statement, that if I respond again, you will not accept any of it. Nothing at all. What reason do I have to respond to you when you do that?
The sand castle collapsed on its own because it was built badly.
NK and Gaza are simply not comparable. They're just not. You shouldn't have used them as a comparison, the problems they face have no parallels.
I'm not refusing to engage you on the merits of your argument out of spite, you just didn't make a good argument. It's just not right. Sometimes you'll say things that are wrong and sometimes people will tell you that the thing you said was wrong but it's not an attack on you as a person.
|
On August 14 2025 03:17 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On August 14 2025 02:57 KwarK wrote:On August 14 2025 01:26 Magic Powers wrote:On August 14 2025 00:50 KwarK wrote:
Let’s imagine for a second an exceedingly unlikely scenario. There’s a ceasefire and a new government in Gaza. Iran stops supplying Gazans with weapons and the million young, displaced, radicalized, justifiably vengeful, and propagandized Gazans who grew up under Hamas rule all decide to forgive Israel. No more rocket attacks on Israel, no more answering air strikes. Completely impossible but let’s imagine it anyway.
Let’s imagine what that Gaza looks like. What it’s birth rate looks like. What its employment rate looks like. What its major industries and economic activities are. How its government is financed, how it provides services and so forth. Where people live.
What I’m imagining is still an overcrowded intergenerational refugee camp with no meaningful economic activity taking place, no mobility, wholly dependent upon outside aid, and no end in sight. What I’m imagining is large numbers of people who have been fucked over by the world who are rightfully furious about it. And people with an awful lot of time on their hands to think about how furious they are and with absolutely no prospect of any of the issues changing.
I’m often told I have no empathy for Gazans and I think that that couldn’t be further from the truth. I don’t think they’re evil or inhuman or monsters or whatever, I put myself in their shoes to the extent that I am able and think that their fury is wholly warranted. It makes sense. They’re not evil, they’re normal people reacting to an awful situation.
And my hypothesis that a Gaza under a ceasefire still turns to radical violent politics isn’t exactly untested. I’m arguing it as a hypothetical but we’ve already seen a Gaza under a ceasefire, it turned to Hamas. By the polling Hamas would still win an election held today.
A ceasefire isn’t enough. If we want Gazans to choose peace then we need to give them more than that because right now the argument for an end to violence isn’t convincing Gazans. They need a future they can believe in for themselves and their families and “this but without the airstrikes” doesn’t cut it.
A ceasefire is just things getting worse more slowly for as long as it lasts, and then when it inevitably ends it’ll be back to airstrikes. This is why I referred to other conflicts such as the Korean war, which resulted in a split between two oppressed nations, one becoming prosperous and one remaining oppressed. There are a lot of parallels between Korea and Israel-Palestine. It's a great example showing that oppression and war doesn't have to be the end of things. The two split countries' administrations imposed completely different policies post-war and experienced completely different fates. North Korea is still poor and oppressed while South Korea is rich and, well, very hierarchical but certainly not oppressed, and consistently moving away from corruption and authoritarianism. At the same time Koreans are technically still at war, and the threat is constant. It's so prevalent that South Koreans have a big gun culture that is at least on par with that of US Americans. They celebrate guns. And the military is always ready to strike if it becomes necessary. They're constantly worried. And yet people aren't being slaughtered. The war has turned cold for many years. I don't see a reason why Israel-Palestine doesn't have a realistic chance of experiencing a similar outcome. Sure, one of the sides could remain oppressed. That would presumably be the Palestinians under Hamas rule. But this doesn't mean there has to be a continuous hot war leading to tens of thousands of casualties. North Korea hasn't attacked South Korea in a long time. And that's not because there aren't any tensions on the border. Tensions remain. But it's under control. Gaza and NK couldn't be more different I'm afraid. I don't think you do this on purpose, but I want to let you know that you make discussion impossible with a response like this. I call the two conflicts comparable. I believe there are plenty of parallels that allow me to conclude that there is hope for Palestinians and Gaza. You respond saying there are literally no comparisons whatsoever. So I'm over here sitting rather middle-groundish arguing my case. I have researched the two conflicts to a degree that gives me confidence that my argument is reasonable. Then you come and kick down the entire thing like it's a sand castle. Not with argumentation, but with a statement that poisons any further discussion. I already know, because of your statement, that if I respond again, you will not accept any of it. Nothing at all. What reason do I have to respond to you when you do that? By the way I have read your whole comment, just wanna mention that. I'm responding to this part in particular because I think this is at the core of our disagreements. It's not that my rationale is worse and yours is better or the other way around. It's that discussion becomes impossible with this argumentation style.
In your analogy, how would the Gazan's be self sufficient in the way the NKs are? Or are you thinking they partner with another nation?
|
On August 14 2025 03:27 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On August 14 2025 03:17 Magic Powers wrote:On August 14 2025 02:57 KwarK wrote:On August 14 2025 01:26 Magic Powers wrote:On August 14 2025 00:50 KwarK wrote:
Let’s imagine for a second an exceedingly unlikely scenario. There’s a ceasefire and a new government in Gaza. Iran stops supplying Gazans with weapons and the million young, displaced, radicalized, justifiably vengeful, and propagandized Gazans who grew up under Hamas rule all decide to forgive Israel. No more rocket attacks on Israel, no more answering air strikes. Completely impossible but let’s imagine it anyway.
Let’s imagine what that Gaza looks like. What it’s birth rate looks like. What its employment rate looks like. What its major industries and economic activities are. How its government is financed, how it provides services and so forth. Where people live.
What I’m imagining is still an overcrowded intergenerational refugee camp with no meaningful economic activity taking place, no mobility, wholly dependent upon outside aid, and no end in sight. What I’m imagining is large numbers of people who have been fucked over by the world who are rightfully furious about it. And people with an awful lot of time on their hands to think about how furious they are and with absolutely no prospect of any of the issues changing.
I’m often told I have no empathy for Gazans and I think that that couldn’t be further from the truth. I don’t think they’re evil or inhuman or monsters or whatever, I put myself in their shoes to the extent that I am able and think that their fury is wholly warranted. It makes sense. They’re not evil, they’re normal people reacting to an awful situation.
And my hypothesis that a Gaza under a ceasefire still turns to radical violent politics isn’t exactly untested. I’m arguing it as a hypothetical but we’ve already seen a Gaza under a ceasefire, it turned to Hamas. By the polling Hamas would still win an election held today.
A ceasefire isn’t enough. If we want Gazans to choose peace then we need to give them more than that because right now the argument for an end to violence isn’t convincing Gazans. They need a future they can believe in for themselves and their families and “this but without the airstrikes” doesn’t cut it.
A ceasefire is just things getting worse more slowly for as long as it lasts, and then when it inevitably ends it’ll be back to airstrikes. This is why I referred to other conflicts such as the Korean war, which resulted in a split between two oppressed nations, one becoming prosperous and one remaining oppressed. There are a lot of parallels between Korea and Israel-Palestine. It's a great example showing that oppression and war doesn't have to be the end of things. The two split countries' administrations imposed completely different policies post-war and experienced completely different fates. North Korea is still poor and oppressed while South Korea is rich and, well, very hierarchical but certainly not oppressed, and consistently moving away from corruption and authoritarianism. At the same time Koreans are technically still at war, and the threat is constant. It's so prevalent that South Koreans have a big gun culture that is at least on par with that of US Americans. They celebrate guns. And the military is always ready to strike if it becomes necessary. They're constantly worried. And yet people aren't being slaughtered. The war has turned cold for many years. I don't see a reason why Israel-Palestine doesn't have a realistic chance of experiencing a similar outcome. Sure, one of the sides could remain oppressed. That would presumably be the Palestinians under Hamas rule. But this doesn't mean there has to be a continuous hot war leading to tens of thousands of casualties. North Korea hasn't attacked South Korea in a long time. And that's not because there aren't any tensions on the border. Tensions remain. But it's under control. Gaza and NK couldn't be more different I'm afraid. I don't think you do this on purpose, but I want to let you know that you make discussion impossible with a response like this. I call the two conflicts comparable. I believe there are plenty of parallels that allow me to conclude that there is hope for Palestinians and Gaza. You respond saying there are literally no comparisons whatsoever. So I'm over here sitting rather middle-groundish arguing my case. I have researched the two conflicts to a degree that gives me confidence that my argument is reasonable. Then you come and kick down the entire thing like it's a sand castle. Not with argumentation, but with a statement that poisons any further discussion. I already know, because of your statement, that if I respond again, you will not accept any of it. Nothing at all. What reason do I have to respond to you when you do that? The sand castle collapsed on its own because it was built badly.
And again. You don't ever stop saying these things.
I don't know what else I can say to make you finally see what you're doing all the time.
|
On August 14 2025 03:29 Billyboy wrote:Show nested quote +On August 14 2025 03:17 Magic Powers wrote:On August 14 2025 02:57 KwarK wrote:On August 14 2025 01:26 Magic Powers wrote:On August 14 2025 00:50 KwarK wrote:
Let’s imagine for a second an exceedingly unlikely scenario. There’s a ceasefire and a new government in Gaza. Iran stops supplying Gazans with weapons and the million young, displaced, radicalized, justifiably vengeful, and propagandized Gazans who grew up under Hamas rule all decide to forgive Israel. No more rocket attacks on Israel, no more answering air strikes. Completely impossible but let’s imagine it anyway.
Let’s imagine what that Gaza looks like. What it’s birth rate looks like. What its employment rate looks like. What its major industries and economic activities are. How its government is financed, how it provides services and so forth. Where people live.
What I’m imagining is still an overcrowded intergenerational refugee camp with no meaningful economic activity taking place, no mobility, wholly dependent upon outside aid, and no end in sight. What I’m imagining is large numbers of people who have been fucked over by the world who are rightfully furious about it. And people with an awful lot of time on their hands to think about how furious they are and with absolutely no prospect of any of the issues changing.
I’m often told I have no empathy for Gazans and I think that that couldn’t be further from the truth. I don’t think they’re evil or inhuman or monsters or whatever, I put myself in their shoes to the extent that I am able and think that their fury is wholly warranted. It makes sense. They’re not evil, they’re normal people reacting to an awful situation.
And my hypothesis that a Gaza under a ceasefire still turns to radical violent politics isn’t exactly untested. I’m arguing it as a hypothetical but we’ve already seen a Gaza under a ceasefire, it turned to Hamas. By the polling Hamas would still win an election held today.
A ceasefire isn’t enough. If we want Gazans to choose peace then we need to give them more than that because right now the argument for an end to violence isn’t convincing Gazans. They need a future they can believe in for themselves and their families and “this but without the airstrikes” doesn’t cut it.
A ceasefire is just things getting worse more slowly for as long as it lasts, and then when it inevitably ends it’ll be back to airstrikes. This is why I referred to other conflicts such as the Korean war, which resulted in a split between two oppressed nations, one becoming prosperous and one remaining oppressed. There are a lot of parallels between Korea and Israel-Palestine. It's a great example showing that oppression and war doesn't have to be the end of things. The two split countries' administrations imposed completely different policies post-war and experienced completely different fates. North Korea is still poor and oppressed while South Korea is rich and, well, very hierarchical but certainly not oppressed, and consistently moving away from corruption and authoritarianism. At the same time Koreans are technically still at war, and the threat is constant. It's so prevalent that South Koreans have a big gun culture that is at least on par with that of US Americans. They celebrate guns. And the military is always ready to strike if it becomes necessary. They're constantly worried. And yet people aren't being slaughtered. The war has turned cold for many years. I don't see a reason why Israel-Palestine doesn't have a realistic chance of experiencing a similar outcome. Sure, one of the sides could remain oppressed. That would presumably be the Palestinians under Hamas rule. But this doesn't mean there has to be a continuous hot war leading to tens of thousands of casualties. North Korea hasn't attacked South Korea in a long time. And that's not because there aren't any tensions on the border. Tensions remain. But it's under control. Gaza and NK couldn't be more different I'm afraid. I don't think you do this on purpose, but I want to let you know that you make discussion impossible with a response like this. I call the two conflicts comparable. I believe there are plenty of parallels that allow me to conclude that there is hope for Palestinians and Gaza. You respond saying there are literally no comparisons whatsoever. So I'm over here sitting rather middle-groundish arguing my case. I have researched the two conflicts to a degree that gives me confidence that my argument is reasonable. Then you come and kick down the entire thing like it's a sand castle. Not with argumentation, but with a statement that poisons any further discussion. I already know, because of your statement, that if I respond again, you will not accept any of it. Nothing at all. What reason do I have to respond to you when you do that? By the way I have read your whole comment, just wanna mention that. I'm responding to this part in particular because I think this is at the core of our disagreements. It's not that my rationale is worse and yours is better or the other way around. It's that discussion becomes impossible with this argumentation style. In your analogy, how would the Gazan's be self sufficient in the way the NKs are? Or are you thinking they partner with another nation?
NK is not a good country, it's horrible to live in. But I don't see tens of thousands of them dying every year. And they haven't attacked SK in many years. These are the two goals. These goals are realistic in my opinion after Israel withdraws. Nothing is guaranteed. But hope is only possible if hope is given a real chance.
I'm not asking for Palestine to become a prosperous nation on Gazan soil. That is an ideal, not a realistic goal. I'm trying to reach much much lower.
|
United States42772 Posts
On August 14 2025 04:00 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On August 14 2025 03:27 KwarK wrote:On August 14 2025 03:17 Magic Powers wrote:On August 14 2025 02:57 KwarK wrote:On August 14 2025 01:26 Magic Powers wrote:On August 14 2025 00:50 KwarK wrote:
Let’s imagine for a second an exceedingly unlikely scenario. There’s a ceasefire and a new government in Gaza. Iran stops supplying Gazans with weapons and the million young, displaced, radicalized, justifiably vengeful, and propagandized Gazans who grew up under Hamas rule all decide to forgive Israel. No more rocket attacks on Israel, no more answering air strikes. Completely impossible but let’s imagine it anyway.
Let’s imagine what that Gaza looks like. What it’s birth rate looks like. What its employment rate looks like. What its major industries and economic activities are. How its government is financed, how it provides services and so forth. Where people live.
What I’m imagining is still an overcrowded intergenerational refugee camp with no meaningful economic activity taking place, no mobility, wholly dependent upon outside aid, and no end in sight. What I’m imagining is large numbers of people who have been fucked over by the world who are rightfully furious about it. And people with an awful lot of time on their hands to think about how furious they are and with absolutely no prospect of any of the issues changing.
I’m often told I have no empathy for Gazans and I think that that couldn’t be further from the truth. I don’t think they’re evil or inhuman or monsters or whatever, I put myself in their shoes to the extent that I am able and think that their fury is wholly warranted. It makes sense. They’re not evil, they’re normal people reacting to an awful situation.
And my hypothesis that a Gaza under a ceasefire still turns to radical violent politics isn’t exactly untested. I’m arguing it as a hypothetical but we’ve already seen a Gaza under a ceasefire, it turned to Hamas. By the polling Hamas would still win an election held today.
A ceasefire isn’t enough. If we want Gazans to choose peace then we need to give them more than that because right now the argument for an end to violence isn’t convincing Gazans. They need a future they can believe in for themselves and their families and “this but without the airstrikes” doesn’t cut it.
A ceasefire is just things getting worse more slowly for as long as it lasts, and then when it inevitably ends it’ll be back to airstrikes. This is why I referred to other conflicts such as the Korean war, which resulted in a split between two oppressed nations, one becoming prosperous and one remaining oppressed. There are a lot of parallels between Korea and Israel-Palestine. It's a great example showing that oppression and war doesn't have to be the end of things. The two split countries' administrations imposed completely different policies post-war and experienced completely different fates. North Korea is still poor and oppressed while South Korea is rich and, well, very hierarchical but certainly not oppressed, and consistently moving away from corruption and authoritarianism. At the same time Koreans are technically still at war, and the threat is constant. It's so prevalent that South Koreans have a big gun culture that is at least on par with that of US Americans. They celebrate guns. And the military is always ready to strike if it becomes necessary. They're constantly worried. And yet people aren't being slaughtered. The war has turned cold for many years. I don't see a reason why Israel-Palestine doesn't have a realistic chance of experiencing a similar outcome. Sure, one of the sides could remain oppressed. That would presumably be the Palestinians under Hamas rule. But this doesn't mean there has to be a continuous hot war leading to tens of thousands of casualties. North Korea hasn't attacked South Korea in a long time. And that's not because there aren't any tensions on the border. Tensions remain. But it's under control. Gaza and NK couldn't be more different I'm afraid. I don't think you do this on purpose, but I want to let you know that you make discussion impossible with a response like this. I call the two conflicts comparable. I believe there are plenty of parallels that allow me to conclude that there is hope for Palestinians and Gaza. You respond saying there are literally no comparisons whatsoever. So I'm over here sitting rather middle-groundish arguing my case. I have researched the two conflicts to a degree that gives me confidence that my argument is reasonable. Then you come and kick down the entire thing like it's a sand castle. Not with argumentation, but with a statement that poisons any further discussion. I already know, because of your statement, that if I respond again, you will not accept any of it. Nothing at all. What reason do I have to respond to you when you do that? The sand castle collapsed on its own because it was built badly. And again. You don't ever stop saying these things. I don't know what else I can say to make you finally see what you're doing all the time.
I understand you want me to reply in the format "you're half right but..." but you have to give me something to work with here. Some amount of right that I can round up and call half. You're responsible for putting something right in, and it's not my fault if you choose not to.
I'm not trying to be mean but the only answer to "why would the population of Gaza inevitably lash out if there can be relative peace on the Korean peninsula" is that the situations are in no way comparable for the reasons outlined at length.
|
On August 14 2025 04:02 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On August 14 2025 03:29 Billyboy wrote:On August 14 2025 03:17 Magic Powers wrote:On August 14 2025 02:57 KwarK wrote:On August 14 2025 01:26 Magic Powers wrote:On August 14 2025 00:50 KwarK wrote:
Let’s imagine for a second an exceedingly unlikely scenario. There’s a ceasefire and a new government in Gaza. Iran stops supplying Gazans with weapons and the million young, displaced, radicalized, justifiably vengeful, and propagandized Gazans who grew up under Hamas rule all decide to forgive Israel. No more rocket attacks on Israel, no more answering air strikes. Completely impossible but let’s imagine it anyway.
Let’s imagine what that Gaza looks like. What it’s birth rate looks like. What its employment rate looks like. What its major industries and economic activities are. How its government is financed, how it provides services and so forth. Where people live.
What I’m imagining is still an overcrowded intergenerational refugee camp with no meaningful economic activity taking place, no mobility, wholly dependent upon outside aid, and no end in sight. What I’m imagining is large numbers of people who have been fucked over by the world who are rightfully furious about it. And people with an awful lot of time on their hands to think about how furious they are and with absolutely no prospect of any of the issues changing.
I’m often told I have no empathy for Gazans and I think that that couldn’t be further from the truth. I don’t think they’re evil or inhuman or monsters or whatever, I put myself in their shoes to the extent that I am able and think that their fury is wholly warranted. It makes sense. They’re not evil, they’re normal people reacting to an awful situation.
And my hypothesis that a Gaza under a ceasefire still turns to radical violent politics isn’t exactly untested. I’m arguing it as a hypothetical but we’ve already seen a Gaza under a ceasefire, it turned to Hamas. By the polling Hamas would still win an election held today.
A ceasefire isn’t enough. If we want Gazans to choose peace then we need to give them more than that because right now the argument for an end to violence isn’t convincing Gazans. They need a future they can believe in for themselves and their families and “this but without the airstrikes” doesn’t cut it.
A ceasefire is just things getting worse more slowly for as long as it lasts, and then when it inevitably ends it’ll be back to airstrikes. This is why I referred to other conflicts such as the Korean war, which resulted in a split between two oppressed nations, one becoming prosperous and one remaining oppressed. There are a lot of parallels between Korea and Israel-Palestine. It's a great example showing that oppression and war doesn't have to be the end of things. The two split countries' administrations imposed completely different policies post-war and experienced completely different fates. North Korea is still poor and oppressed while South Korea is rich and, well, very hierarchical but certainly not oppressed, and consistently moving away from corruption and authoritarianism. At the same time Koreans are technically still at war, and the threat is constant. It's so prevalent that South Koreans have a big gun culture that is at least on par with that of US Americans. They celebrate guns. And the military is always ready to strike if it becomes necessary. They're constantly worried. And yet people aren't being slaughtered. The war has turned cold for many years. I don't see a reason why Israel-Palestine doesn't have a realistic chance of experiencing a similar outcome. Sure, one of the sides could remain oppressed. That would presumably be the Palestinians under Hamas rule. But this doesn't mean there has to be a continuous hot war leading to tens of thousands of casualties. North Korea hasn't attacked South Korea in a long time. And that's not because there aren't any tensions on the border. Tensions remain. But it's under control. Gaza and NK couldn't be more different I'm afraid. I don't think you do this on purpose, but I want to let you know that you make discussion impossible with a response like this. I call the two conflicts comparable. I believe there are plenty of parallels that allow me to conclude that there is hope for Palestinians and Gaza. You respond saying there are literally no comparisons whatsoever. So I'm over here sitting rather middle-groundish arguing my case. I have researched the two conflicts to a degree that gives me confidence that my argument is reasonable. Then you come and kick down the entire thing like it's a sand castle. Not with argumentation, but with a statement that poisons any further discussion. I already know, because of your statement, that if I respond again, you will not accept any of it. Nothing at all. What reason do I have to respond to you when you do that? By the way I have read your whole comment, just wanna mention that. I'm responding to this part in particular because I think this is at the core of our disagreements. It's not that my rationale is worse and yours is better or the other way around. It's that discussion becomes impossible with this argumentation style. In your analogy, how would the Gazan's be self sufficient in the way the NKs are? Or are you thinking they partner with another nation? NK is not a good country, it's horrible to live in. But I don't see tens of thousands of them dying every year. And they haven't attacked SK in many years. These are the two goals. These goals are realistic in my opinion after Israel withdraws. Nothing is guaranteed. But hope is only possible if hope is given a real chance. I'm not asking for Palestine to become a prosperous nation on Gazan soil. That is an ideal, not a realistic goal. I'm trying to reach much much lower.
I get that, but how do you get to that point with Gaza?
Everyone that is posting wants to at least get to them not at war with each other. How do you get there with Hamas declaring their forever war and seemingly unwilling to ever stop? How do you tamp down extremism when it is the perfect situation for it to form and the vast majority of the population has already been made extreme?
I think another very imperfect comparison is Afghanistan, most wanted the west to leave. Is it better for the Afghan's that they have? There is not active war, but there are still lots dying. And long term is up in the air, are they going to satisfied within their boarders? The west didn't even leave because they thought it would be better for the Afghan's, it was because they were spending their money and losing their soldiers over there. What would lead anyone to believe that any country is going to take a greater expense, more dangerous and less chance of success mission?
|
United States42772 Posts
I don't think there's any country in the world you could really compare with Gaza, it's a truly unique situation. It took decades of very specific circumstances that don't occur naturally to create.
|
On August 14 2025 04:22 KwarK wrote:
I don't think there's any country in the world you could really compare with Gaza, it's a truly unique situation. It took decades of very specific circumstances that don't occur naturally to create.
You can compare it with displaced or repressed populations inside other countries. Palestine is close to a state inside Israel that Israel is systematically oppressing.
|
On August 14 2025 04:04 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On August 14 2025 04:00 Magic Powers wrote:On August 14 2025 03:27 KwarK wrote:On August 14 2025 03:17 Magic Powers wrote:On August 14 2025 02:57 KwarK wrote:On August 14 2025 01:26 Magic Powers wrote:On August 14 2025 00:50 KwarK wrote:
Let’s imagine for a second an exceedingly unlikely scenario. There’s a ceasefire and a new government in Gaza. Iran stops supplying Gazans with weapons and the million young, displaced, radicalized, justifiably vengeful, and propagandized Gazans who grew up under Hamas rule all decide to forgive Israel. No more rocket attacks on Israel, no more answering air strikes. Completely impossible but let’s imagine it anyway.
Let’s imagine what that Gaza looks like. What it’s birth rate looks like. What its employment rate looks like. What its major industries and economic activities are. How its government is financed, how it provides services and so forth. Where people live.
What I’m imagining is still an overcrowded intergenerational refugee camp with no meaningful economic activity taking place, no mobility, wholly dependent upon outside aid, and no end in sight. What I’m imagining is large numbers of people who have been fucked over by the world who are rightfully furious about it. And people with an awful lot of time on their hands to think about how furious they are and with absolutely no prospect of any of the issues changing.
I’m often told I have no empathy for Gazans and I think that that couldn’t be further from the truth. I don’t think they’re evil or inhuman or monsters or whatever, I put myself in their shoes to the extent that I am able and think that their fury is wholly warranted. It makes sense. They’re not evil, they’re normal people reacting to an awful situation.
And my hypothesis that a Gaza under a ceasefire still turns to radical violent politics isn’t exactly untested. I’m arguing it as a hypothetical but we’ve already seen a Gaza under a ceasefire, it turned to Hamas. By the polling Hamas would still win an election held today.
A ceasefire isn’t enough. If we want Gazans to choose peace then we need to give them more than that because right now the argument for an end to violence isn’t convincing Gazans. They need a future they can believe in for themselves and their families and “this but without the airstrikes” doesn’t cut it.
A ceasefire is just things getting worse more slowly for as long as it lasts, and then when it inevitably ends it’ll be back to airstrikes. This is why I referred to other conflicts such as the Korean war, which resulted in a split between two oppressed nations, one becoming prosperous and one remaining oppressed. There are a lot of parallels between Korea and Israel-Palestine. It's a great example showing that oppression and war doesn't have to be the end of things. The two split countries' administrations imposed completely different policies post-war and experienced completely different fates. North Korea is still poor and oppressed while South Korea is rich and, well, very hierarchical but certainly not oppressed, and consistently moving away from corruption and authoritarianism. At the same time Koreans are technically still at war, and the threat is constant. It's so prevalent that South Koreans have a big gun culture that is at least on par with that of US Americans. They celebrate guns. And the military is always ready to strike if it becomes necessary. They're constantly worried. And yet people aren't being slaughtered. The war has turned cold for many years. I don't see a reason why Israel-Palestine doesn't have a realistic chance of experiencing a similar outcome. Sure, one of the sides could remain oppressed. That would presumably be the Palestinians under Hamas rule. But this doesn't mean there has to be a continuous hot war leading to tens of thousands of casualties. North Korea hasn't attacked South Korea in a long time. And that's not because there aren't any tensions on the border. Tensions remain. But it's under control. Gaza and NK couldn't be more different I'm afraid. I don't think you do this on purpose, but I want to let you know that you make discussion impossible with a response like this. I call the two conflicts comparable. I believe there are plenty of parallels that allow me to conclude that there is hope for Palestinians and Gaza. You respond saying there are literally no comparisons whatsoever. So I'm over here sitting rather middle-groundish arguing my case. I have researched the two conflicts to a degree that gives me confidence that my argument is reasonable. Then you come and kick down the entire thing like it's a sand castle. Not with argumentation, but with a statement that poisons any further discussion. I already know, because of your statement, that if I respond again, you will not accept any of it. Nothing at all. What reason do I have to respond to you when you do that? The sand castle collapsed on its own because it was built badly. And again. You don't ever stop saying these things. I don't know what else I can say to make you finally see what you're doing all the time. I understand you want me to reply in the format "you're half right but..." but you have to give me something to work with here. Some amount of right that I can round up and call half. You're responsible for putting something right in, and it's not my fault if you choose not to. I'm not trying to be mean but the only answer to "why would the population of Gaza inevitably lash out if there can be relative peace on the Korean peninsula" is that the situations are in no way comparable for the reasons outlined at length.
You can disagree with people all you want. But when people make an effort to write a relatively well thought out comment, and your first response boils down to "your argument is worthless".
Tell me that's not something that would eventually drive you up the wall if everybody did it to you all the time.
|
On August 14 2025 04:30 Yurie wrote:Show nested quote +On August 14 2025 04:22 KwarK wrote:
I don't think there's any country in the world you could really compare with Gaza, it's a truly unique situation. It took decades of very specific circumstances that don't occur naturally to create. You can compare it with displaced or repressed populations inside other countries. Palestine is close to a state inside Israel that Israel is systematically oppressing.
Maybe the Kurds are the closest? But I'm not sure how you would use their experience as any sort of guide as outside of oppressed and killed there are not a ton of similarities in the situations.
|
On August 14 2025 04:14 Billyboy wrote:Show nested quote +On August 14 2025 04:02 Magic Powers wrote:On August 14 2025 03:29 Billyboy wrote:On August 14 2025 03:17 Magic Powers wrote:On August 14 2025 02:57 KwarK wrote:On August 14 2025 01:26 Magic Powers wrote:On August 14 2025 00:50 KwarK wrote:
Let’s imagine for a second an exceedingly unlikely scenario. There’s a ceasefire and a new government in Gaza. Iran stops supplying Gazans with weapons and the million young, displaced, radicalized, justifiably vengeful, and propagandized Gazans who grew up under Hamas rule all decide to forgive Israel. No more rocket attacks on Israel, no more answering air strikes. Completely impossible but let’s imagine it anyway.
Let’s imagine what that Gaza looks like. What it’s birth rate looks like. What its employment rate looks like. What its major industries and economic activities are. How its government is financed, how it provides services and so forth. Where people live.
What I’m imagining is still an overcrowded intergenerational refugee camp with no meaningful economic activity taking place, no mobility, wholly dependent upon outside aid, and no end in sight. What I’m imagining is large numbers of people who have been fucked over by the world who are rightfully furious about it. And people with an awful lot of time on their hands to think about how furious they are and with absolutely no prospect of any of the issues changing.
I’m often told I have no empathy for Gazans and I think that that couldn’t be further from the truth. I don’t think they’re evil or inhuman or monsters or whatever, I put myself in their shoes to the extent that I am able and think that their fury is wholly warranted. It makes sense. They’re not evil, they’re normal people reacting to an awful situation.
And my hypothesis that a Gaza under a ceasefire still turns to radical violent politics isn’t exactly untested. I’m arguing it as a hypothetical but we’ve already seen a Gaza under a ceasefire, it turned to Hamas. By the polling Hamas would still win an election held today.
A ceasefire isn’t enough. If we want Gazans to choose peace then we need to give them more than that because right now the argument for an end to violence isn’t convincing Gazans. They need a future they can believe in for themselves and their families and “this but without the airstrikes” doesn’t cut it.
A ceasefire is just things getting worse more slowly for as long as it lasts, and then when it inevitably ends it’ll be back to airstrikes. This is why I referred to other conflicts such as the Korean war, which resulted in a split between two oppressed nations, one becoming prosperous and one remaining oppressed. There are a lot of parallels between Korea and Israel-Palestine. It's a great example showing that oppression and war doesn't have to be the end of things. The two split countries' administrations imposed completely different policies post-war and experienced completely different fates. North Korea is still poor and oppressed while South Korea is rich and, well, very hierarchical but certainly not oppressed, and consistently moving away from corruption and authoritarianism. At the same time Koreans are technically still at war, and the threat is constant. It's so prevalent that South Koreans have a big gun culture that is at least on par with that of US Americans. They celebrate guns. And the military is always ready to strike if it becomes necessary. They're constantly worried. And yet people aren't being slaughtered. The war has turned cold for many years. I don't see a reason why Israel-Palestine doesn't have a realistic chance of experiencing a similar outcome. Sure, one of the sides could remain oppressed. That would presumably be the Palestinians under Hamas rule. But this doesn't mean there has to be a continuous hot war leading to tens of thousands of casualties. North Korea hasn't attacked South Korea in a long time. And that's not because there aren't any tensions on the border. Tensions remain. But it's under control. Gaza and NK couldn't be more different I'm afraid. I don't think you do this on purpose, but I want to let you know that you make discussion impossible with a response like this. I call the two conflicts comparable. I believe there are plenty of parallels that allow me to conclude that there is hope for Palestinians and Gaza. You respond saying there are literally no comparisons whatsoever. So I'm over here sitting rather middle-groundish arguing my case. I have researched the two conflicts to a degree that gives me confidence that my argument is reasonable. Then you come and kick down the entire thing like it's a sand castle. Not with argumentation, but with a statement that poisons any further discussion. I already know, because of your statement, that if I respond again, you will not accept any of it. Nothing at all. What reason do I have to respond to you when you do that? By the way I have read your whole comment, just wanna mention that. I'm responding to this part in particular because I think this is at the core of our disagreements. It's not that my rationale is worse and yours is better or the other way around. It's that discussion becomes impossible with this argumentation style. In your analogy, how would the Gazan's be self sufficient in the way the NKs are? Or are you thinking they partner with another nation? NK is not a good country, it's horrible to live in. But I don't see tens of thousands of them dying every year. And they haven't attacked SK in many years. These are the two goals. These goals are realistic in my opinion after Israel withdraws. Nothing is guaranteed. But hope is only possible if hope is given a real chance. I'm not asking for Palestine to become a prosperous nation on Gazan soil. That is an ideal, not a realistic goal. I'm trying to reach much much lower. I get that, but how do you get to that point with Gaza? Everyone that is posting wants to at least get to them not at war with each other. How do you get there with Hamas declaring their forever war and seemingly unwilling to ever stop? How do you tamp down extremism when it is the perfect situation for it to form and the vast majority of the population has already been made extreme? I think another very imperfect comparison is Afghanistan, most wanted the west to leave. Is it better for the Afghan's that they have? There is not active war, but there are still lots dying. And long term is up in the air, are they going to satisfied within their boarders? The west didn't even leave because they thought it would be better for the Afghan's, it was because they were spending their money and losing their soldiers over there. What would lead anyone to believe that any country is going to take a greater expense, more dangerous and less chance of success mission?
These are good and valid questions, and I don't have an answer to the majority of them. I think it'd take an unseen level of genius to come up with a solution that unfolds exactly as predicted from A to Z. I don't think this conflict can be figured out like that.
So my approach is more direct and short term. I don't think about the long term as long as the short term is so intolerable. If my house is burning, I don't ask "how am I going to redesign my completely destroyed kitchen?" I ask "are there still people inside?" and "how do I prevent this fire from spreading any further?" After putting out the fire I move on to other questions.
I think that's the way to do it honestly. We have to come up with answers step after step. We haven't even taken the first step.
|
United States42772 Posts
On August 14 2025 04:30 Yurie wrote:Show nested quote +On August 14 2025 04:22 KwarK wrote:
I don't think there's any country in the world you could really compare with Gaza, it's a truly unique situation. It took decades of very specific circumstances that don't occur naturally to create. You can compare it with displaced or repressed populations inside other countries. Palestine is close to a state inside Israel that Israel is systematically oppressing.
You’re right, that’d be a better comparison than other countries. But even among them it’s an extreme outlier because even persecuted minorities are normally forced to maintain a degree of self sufficiency or are pushed into scenarios in which they fail to do so and destroyed. They reach some sort of stable equilibrium. Displacing a group, putting them in an isolated camp, and then supplying equal parts bombs and food for multiple generations is weird. You have to spend a lot of money to perpetuate an unstable situation like that for as long as it has and I can’t think of any similar group that has had so much invested in keeping it from reaching a natural resolution.
|
On August 14 2025 03:02 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On August 14 2025 01:33 Jankisa wrote:No one is saying that a ceasefire is a one and done solution for the whole problem, we are saying that it's a necessary first step to stop the suffering and allow any sort of positive change to start. In an ideal world, which you described, let's also imagine that Israeli also all decide to forgive Palestinians, let's say that they elect someone with a platform of 2 state solution who then negotiates with the UN to organize free elections in Gaza. In these elections, a real alternative, backed by UN and Arab states is presented, let's say it's this guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salam_FayyadThis guy runs on a platform of growing food on land that Israeli settlers give back. He runs on a platform of outlawing Hamas (which is no longer necessary because as you said, Palestinians forgave Israelis) and organizing a real, regulated police force. Since everyone on both sides is now friends, Israel gets to take advantage of a very young and cheap labor force while Palestinians get to take their fair salaries and re-invest them back into their homes. The international community pitches in and helps with rebuilding Gaza. No one is suggesting this from Israel's side tho. And for any of this to be real, a ceasefire is a necessary first step, as is the end of this war, sooner that happens the higher chances of any successful solution become. Longer this war goes, less things to live in and more reasons to hate each other are left in Gaza. The Israeli settlers stealing the farms in a West Bank issue. The West Bank has much more viability as an entity than Gaza does. But in any case, your ideas are pleasant and I'd like to imagine a world in which Israel is opened to Gazan labour and economic integration becomes social and political integration over time. My problem with it is that there's no path there, not by sanctioning Israel, not by denying arms sales, not by overthrowing Netanyahu, not by getting Iran on board, not by investing a trillion dollars in the problem. It's just too late.
My questions is: "How do you know if it was never tried?"
I don't know if it's possible, I just know that it was never tried, and for this I blame the voters in Israel because they have had much more agency over the years to enact a change. I get all the historical subtleties, I understand the timeline, I know how it's been fucked, a lot by Hamas being the perfect foil, but the same way I blame Americans who voted for Trump for the mess he is making of the world because they bought into propaganda I can blame Israelis who keep voting for Nethyanahu who to me seems just as bad if not worse then Trump.
He's been the biggest power in Israel for decades now, he is obviously corrupt and prefers war over peace, security through strength and brutality despite that never working.
It might be a pie in the sky wish, but I feel I have much more in common when it comes to values and way of thinking to Israelis, so I put my hopes into them, one day, seeing the light and trying something that might actually work.
Because this is not working.
|
The suggested plan of paying another country to receive the Palestinians would probably work better than the current situation. Most would die after arriving but that isn't Israel's problem any longer.
Another thing I suggested a long time ago that would work would be killing everybody instead of keeping the limbo. As I stated last time I am not in favor of this solution, but it is a solution. The Jews have a lot of examples to pull from on how to do this, I think perhaps the WW2 example is the easiest to implement.
Another would be to actually make it a real state in the nation of Israel, with various versions of this working to various degrees.
The thing is that the power to decide on actions is in Israel's hands and they don't seem to want to implement any workable solution. Mostly because they are worse (for Israel's ruling class) than the current state where you push it into the future and hope something shows up (kind of how humanity at large deals with global issues).
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
