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Most of the Ukrainian vloggers that I watch talking about that conflict have now put out videos talking about Israel vs Iran. There are a few things that were common across all of them.
They have been very pro Israel. They believe that Hamas is basically the little green men they dealt with and Iran is the real enemy. They do believe Iran is a existential threat to Israel based on their rhetoric and their various proxy armies. They talk about Israel defending themselves with admiration and almost jealousy that they can not do the same. They talk about the weapons facilities and how that will help them somewhat. Most of the major drone production of the Iranian tech is now in Russia, but they say many of the extra parts and some components are still made in Iran and that should help. There one common concern is oil prices spiking and that helping the Russian economy.
I was surprised that each of them I watched was so openly pro Israel, it might hurt their own personal income and their fund raising as they are bucking political lines pretty hard.
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Ukraine was bombed with enough Iranian drones to pick a side long time ago.
I doubt there will be any political controversy there.
That said a prolonged conflict would be very bad for them.
Any patriot missile that US and Israel needs to fight Iran won't be available to protect Kiev.
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United States43672 Posts
On June 16 2025 08:16 Billyboy wrote:Show nested quote +On June 16 2025 05:47 PremoBeats wrote:https://www.axios.com/2025/06/15/trump-israel-iran-assassination-khameneiIf Israel had a viable plan or opportunity to assassinate Khamenei, it would suggest extraordinary levels of operational reach and intelligence penetration. Khamenei is likely the most heavily guarded person in Iran, protected by multiple overlapping layers (IRGC, internal intelligence, elite security). For Israel to even identify a time and place where he was vulnerable, they would need high-level human intelligence or close-proximity surveillance. And to even think about killing a political head of state implies the risk of setting off extreme geopolitical consequences. Or was it just a flex to show what they are capable of without a true desire to take action? Meanwhile Elon has turned on Starlink as Iran has shut down internet, although it is unclear how efficient this action is. Mossad has shown they have free rein inside of Iran, you don't get that level without tons and tons of local support. Decades of awful repression of their own people is coming home to roost. Anyone not celebrating the deaths of Bagheri and Salami is either not paying attention or evil.
Free rein. It’s a horse with reins, not a king who reigns.
But replying because I read a joke today that was related to that.
A Mossad agent covertly approaches an Iranian and asks him if he would be willing to fight the regime for $10,000. The Iranian doesn’t immediately say no but he’s clearly hesitating as he wrestles with a problem.
After a pause he says “That’s a lot of money”.
“It is” replies the Mossad agent.
“It would take years to earn that much money”.
“It would”.
“Okay, I’ll do it” says the Iranian. “But I have one additional requirement. I can only pay in installments.”
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Northern Ireland26341 Posts
On June 16 2025 08:07 Billyboy wrote:Show nested quote +On June 16 2025 01:04 WombaT wrote:On June 15 2025 23:18 Billyboy wrote:@ Jankisa The major issue I have with the rhetoric of people in this thread is claiming people who have issues with Israel's conduct are broken brained when the same people leveling these kind of accusations are the ones that decided that what Hamas did on October 7th gives Israel free reign to do whatever kind of violence and escalations. I don't think anyone here holds this position. I think there are are people you can put in two camps though. One that thinks everything is Israel's fault. And others who put blame on both in varying degrees. There used to be a Israeli fella on this thread who could have given eloquent and informed info on the Israeli position and how different groups within Israel felt but he was chased away with hate. Anyone here mad at Iran for launching massive missile and drone volleys with no even attempt at hitting military targets? Not really my recollection. They got pretty standard pushback on their positions and decided not to engage subsequently, they weren’t ’chased away with hate’. Which is a shame nonetheless but let’s not frame it otherwise. I’d personally prefer Iran not to do such things. They’ve been attacked by a state, not paramilitaries however. They’ve also been attacked at a deliberate time of Israel’s choosing where they relaxed certain protocols based on the US negotiations. Iran’s overall stance is clearly reprehensible, but what nation on Earth wouldn’t respond? Either the US and Israel collaborated here, in which case why trust either? Or the US was in the dark which indicates Israel can do what it wants essentially and doesn’t think there’ll be US pushback. Neither scenario is going to be remotely palatable to Iran. Ahh yes, I forgot that you are the completely unbiased arbitrator of behavior. I mistakenly thought he left because of the large number of people down his throat every post, ignorantly complaining that it was unfair he knew so much, attacking him personally and morally repeatedly. Good to know he just lost interest. Anyone who cares can go read the quality posts he did and the "standard pushback on positions" and judge for themselves. I'd say that he's not here is a pretty good indicator of what he thought.
Don’t think I’ve made such a claim. It’s a fractious and heated topic, but that doesn’t mean people are always choosing to disengage because they’re being ‘chased away with hate’.
We saw similar dynamics in the Russia/Ukraine thread as well back in the day.
You could also be right.
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On June 16 2025 22:50 Billyboy wrote:
Most of the Ukrainian vloggers that I watch talking about that conflict have now put out videos talking about Israel vs Iran. There are a few things that were common across all of them.
They have been very pro Israel. They believe that Hamas is basically the little green men they dealt with and Iran is the real enemy. They do believe Iran is a existential threat to Israel based on their rhetoric and their various proxy armies. They talk about Israel defending themselves with admiration and almost jealousy that they can not do the same. They talk about the weapons facilities and how that will help them somewhat. Most of the major drone production of the Iranian tech is now in Russia, but they say many of the extra parts and some components are still made in Iran and that should help. There one common concern is oil prices spiking and that helping the Russian economy.
I was surprised that each of them I watched was so openly pro Israel, it might hurt their own personal income and their fund raising as they are bucking political lines pretty hard.
I think maybe this point you’re making is helping me understand why I feel like such an oddity among my generally very left wing peers.
Nothing you are describing sounds “pro Israel” to me. It more so sounds like a description of Israel be Iran as military foes. I think Iran has done a really good job at framing themselves as activists rather than an actual nation with a military. It works much better for Hamas and Hezbollah but it falls extremely flat when applied to Iran.
Some people can’t seem to view Iranians as humans with agency. It’s like when politicians attempt outreach towards minorities by focusing on police violence or welfare. The unconscious extreme bias in their minds makes them frame minorities in inherently condescending ways. Western left wing folks tend to do the same with Iran. In an attempt to empathize with their culture/faith, they conclude Iranians are caught up in some peyote-infused ritual of war, unable to break away from anything other than war against Israel.
I choose to view Iranians for the people I have known them to be. There’s a whole bunch of them in the Portland area so I’ve had lots of Iranian friends and coworkers and whatnot. They seem entirely cognizant. They think, feel, and make decisions just like you and I. This unique insight has allowed me to view Iranians as humans who could simply decide to refocus on things other than Israel.
They do not share a border. They do not have competing interests. Iran has absolutely zero hope of eliminating Israel. Iran is getting humiliated more and more the longer Israel controls the airspace of Tehran. So when they completely refuse to just chill out and do something else, it’s very easy for me to label their government as complete lunatics. I think Israel’s formation was a mistake and I view them as a deeply unethical military/government. But that doesn’t mean Israel is wrong for being at war with Iran. Iran is being incredibly stupid and despite my feelings regarding Israel, it feels totally impossible to feel a shred of sympathy for Iran’s leadership. It feels very easy to view both Iran and Israel as willing participants. Israel is kicking their teeth in and the nation winning a war shouldn't be expected to retreat. It is on Iran to wave the white flag and beg for forgiveness.
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On June 16 2025 23:56 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On June 16 2025 08:16 Billyboy wrote:On June 16 2025 05:47 PremoBeats wrote:https://www.axios.com/2025/06/15/trump-israel-iran-assassination-khameneiIf Israel had a viable plan or opportunity to assassinate Khamenei, it would suggest extraordinary levels of operational reach and intelligence penetration. Khamenei is likely the most heavily guarded person in Iran, protected by multiple overlapping layers (IRGC, internal intelligence, elite security). For Israel to even identify a time and place where he was vulnerable, they would need high-level human intelligence or close-proximity surveillance. And to even think about killing a political head of state implies the risk of setting off extreme geopolitical consequences. Or was it just a flex to show what they are capable of without a true desire to take action? Meanwhile Elon has turned on Starlink as Iran has shut down internet, although it is unclear how efficient this action is. Mossad has shown they have free rein inside of Iran, you don't get that level without tons and tons of local support. Decades of awful repression of their own people is coming home to roost. Anyone not celebrating the deaths of Bagheri and Salami is either not paying attention or evil. Free rein. It’s a horse with reins, not a king who reigns. But replying because I read a joke today that was related to that. A Mossad agent covertly approaches an Iranian and asks him if he would be willing to fight the regime for $10,000. The Iranian doesn’t immediately say no but he’s clearly hesitating as he wrestles with a problem. After a pause he says “That’s a lot of money”. “It is” replies the Mossad agent. “It would take years to earn that much money”. “It would”. “Okay, I’ll do it” says the Iranian. “But I have one additional requirement. I can only pay in installments.”
I like the joke and its also funny because it was not a typo. Growing up we called it free rein when we let the horse go where it wanted (some times for fun, sometimes because they were good at finding the cattle in the bush), never even occurred to me that was not what was meant.
On June 17 2025 01:01 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 16 2025 22:50 Billyboy wrote:
Most of the Ukrainian vloggers that I watch talking about that conflict have now put out videos talking about Israel vs Iran. There are a few things that were common across all of them.
They have been very pro Israel. They believe that Hamas is basically the little green men they dealt with and Iran is the real enemy. They do believe Iran is a existential threat to Israel based on their rhetoric and their various proxy armies. They talk about Israel defending themselves with admiration and almost jealousy that they can not do the same. They talk about the weapons facilities and how that will help them somewhat. Most of the major drone production of the Iranian tech is now in Russia, but they say many of the extra parts and some components are still made in Iran and that should help. There one common concern is oil prices spiking and that helping the Russian economy.
I was surprised that each of them I watched was so openly pro Israel, it might hurt their own personal income and their fund raising as they are bucking political lines pretty hard. I think maybe this point you’re making is helping me understand why I feel like such an oddity among my generally very left wing peers. Nothing you are describing sounds “pro Israel” to me. It more so sounds like a description of Israel be Iran as military foes. I think Iran has done a really good job at framing themselves as activists rather than an actual nation with a military. It works much better for Hamas and Hezbollah but it falls extremely flat when applied to Iran. Some people can’t seem to view Iranians as humans with agency. It’s like when politicians attempt outreach towards minorities by focusing on police violence or welfare. The unconscious extreme bias in their minds makes them frame minorities in inherently condescending ways. Western left wing folks tend to do the same with Iran. In an attempt to empathize with their culture/faith, they conclude Iranians are caught up in some peyote-infused ritual of war, unable to break away from anything other than war against Israel. I choose to view Iranians for the people I have known them to be. There’s a whole bunch of them in the Portland area so I’ve had lots of Iranian friends and coworkers and whatnot. They seem entirely cognizant. They think, feel, and make decisions just like you and I. This unique insight has allowed me to view Iranians as humans who could simply decide to refocus on things other than Israel. They do not share a border. They do not have competing interests. Iran has absolutely zero hope of eliminating Israel. Iran is getting humiliated more and more the longer Israel controls the airspace of Tehran. So when they completely refuse to just chill out and do something else, it’s very easy for me to label their government as complete lunatics. I think Israel’s formation was a mistake and I view them as a deeply unethical military/government. But that doesn’t mean Israel is wrong for being at war with Iran. Iran is being incredibly stupid and despite my feelings regarding Israel, it feels totally impossible to feel a shred of sympathy for Iran’s leadership. It feels very easy to view both Iran and Israel as willing participants. Israel is kicking their teeth in and the nation winning a war shouldn't be expected to retreat. It is on Iran to wave the white flag and beg for forgiveness.
It does seem strange, almost infantilization to not hold Iran to the same standards as Israel. Lebanon, Yemen and Syria have sure not benefited from Iran's actions outside of its borders. It is strange how if Iran was an eastern European country doing what it is doing no one on this thread would be seeing them as victims.
Do you get much interaction with the Iranians? I would be interested in their take.
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On June 17 2025 01:31 Billyboy wrote:Show nested quote +On June 16 2025 23:56 KwarK wrote:On June 16 2025 08:16 Billyboy wrote:On June 16 2025 05:47 PremoBeats wrote:https://www.axios.com/2025/06/15/trump-israel-iran-assassination-khameneiIf Israel had a viable plan or opportunity to assassinate Khamenei, it would suggest extraordinary levels of operational reach and intelligence penetration. Khamenei is likely the most heavily guarded person in Iran, protected by multiple overlapping layers (IRGC, internal intelligence, elite security). For Israel to even identify a time and place where he was vulnerable, they would need high-level human intelligence or close-proximity surveillance. And to even think about killing a political head of state implies the risk of setting off extreme geopolitical consequences. Or was it just a flex to show what they are capable of without a true desire to take action? Meanwhile Elon has turned on Starlink as Iran has shut down internet, although it is unclear how efficient this action is. Mossad has shown they have free rein inside of Iran, you don't get that level without tons and tons of local support. Decades of awful repression of their own people is coming home to roost. Anyone not celebrating the deaths of Bagheri and Salami is either not paying attention or evil. Free rein. It’s a horse with reins, not a king who reigns. But replying because I read a joke today that was related to that. A Mossad agent covertly approaches an Iranian and asks him if he would be willing to fight the regime for $10,000. The Iranian doesn’t immediately say no but he’s clearly hesitating as he wrestles with a problem. After a pause he says “That’s a lot of money”. “It is” replies the Mossad agent. “It would take years to earn that much money”. “It would”. “Okay, I’ll do it” says the Iranian. “But I have one additional requirement. I can only pay in installments.” I like the joke and its also funny because it was not a typo. Growing up we called it free rein when we let the horse go where it wanted (some times for fun, sometimes because they were good at finding the cattle in the bush), never even occurred to me that was not what was meant. Show nested quote +On June 17 2025 01:01 Mohdoo wrote:On June 16 2025 22:50 Billyboy wrote:
Most of the Ukrainian vloggers that I watch talking about that conflict have now put out videos talking about Israel vs Iran. There are a few things that were common across all of them.
They have been very pro Israel. They believe that Hamas is basically the little green men they dealt with and Iran is the real enemy. They do believe Iran is a existential threat to Israel based on their rhetoric and their various proxy armies. They talk about Israel defending themselves with admiration and almost jealousy that they can not do the same. They talk about the weapons facilities and how that will help them somewhat. Most of the major drone production of the Iranian tech is now in Russia, but they say many of the extra parts and some components are still made in Iran and that should help. There one common concern is oil prices spiking and that helping the Russian economy.
I was surprised that each of them I watched was so openly pro Israel, it might hurt their own personal income and their fund raising as they are bucking political lines pretty hard. I think maybe this point you’re making is helping me understand why I feel like such an oddity among my generally very left wing peers. Nothing you are describing sounds “pro Israel” to me. It more so sounds like a description of Israel be Iran as military foes. I think Iran has done a really good job at framing themselves as activists rather than an actual nation with a military. It works much better for Hamas and Hezbollah but it falls extremely flat when applied to Iran. Some people can’t seem to view Iranians as humans with agency. It’s like when politicians attempt outreach towards minorities by focusing on police violence or welfare. The unconscious extreme bias in their minds makes them frame minorities in inherently condescending ways. Western left wing folks tend to do the same with Iran. In an attempt to empathize with their culture/faith, they conclude Iranians are caught up in some peyote-infused ritual of war, unable to break away from anything other than war against Israel. I choose to view Iranians for the people I have known them to be. There’s a whole bunch of them in the Portland area so I’ve had lots of Iranian friends and coworkers and whatnot. They seem entirely cognizant. They think, feel, and make decisions just like you and I. This unique insight has allowed me to view Iranians as humans who could simply decide to refocus on things other than Israel. They do not share a border. They do not have competing interests. Iran has absolutely zero hope of eliminating Israel. Iran is getting humiliated more and more the longer Israel controls the airspace of Tehran. So when they completely refuse to just chill out and do something else, it’s very easy for me to label their government as complete lunatics. I think Israel’s formation was a mistake and I view them as a deeply unethical military/government. But that doesn’t mean Israel is wrong for being at war with Iran. Iran is being incredibly stupid and despite my feelings regarding Israel, it feels totally impossible to feel a shred of sympathy for Iran’s leadership. It feels very easy to view both Iran and Israel as willing participants. Israel is kicking their teeth in and the nation winning a war shouldn't be expected to retreat. It is on Iran to wave the white flag and beg for forgiveness. It does seem strange, almost infantilization to not hold Iran to the same standards as Israel. Lebanon, Yemen and Syria have sure not benefited from Iran's actions outside of its borders. It is strange how if Iran was an eastern European country doing what it is doing no one on this thread would be seeing them as victims. Do you get much interaction with the Iranians? I would be interested in their take.
All the Iranians I have met/know are here for a reason. I don't think they represent the average Iranian, just like most groups who move to the US don't necessarily reflect where they immigrated from. They strongly disagree with Iran's current leadership and think living in the US is a way better idea. But they also totally hate Israel.
Honestly I think they mirror my own feelings pretty well. The conflict is inherently tragic but I see no victims between the 2 of them. I don't have the same core hate for Israel as they do. But I definitely view Israel very negatively.
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On June 17 2025 01:43 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2025 01:31 Billyboy wrote:On June 16 2025 23:56 KwarK wrote:On June 16 2025 08:16 Billyboy wrote:On June 16 2025 05:47 PremoBeats wrote:https://www.axios.com/2025/06/15/trump-israel-iran-assassination-khameneiIf Israel had a viable plan or opportunity to assassinate Khamenei, it would suggest extraordinary levels of operational reach and intelligence penetration. Khamenei is likely the most heavily guarded person in Iran, protected by multiple overlapping layers (IRGC, internal intelligence, elite security). For Israel to even identify a time and place where he was vulnerable, they would need high-level human intelligence or close-proximity surveillance. And to even think about killing a political head of state implies the risk of setting off extreme geopolitical consequences. Or was it just a flex to show what they are capable of without a true desire to take action? Meanwhile Elon has turned on Starlink as Iran has shut down internet, although it is unclear how efficient this action is. Mossad has shown they have free rein inside of Iran, you don't get that level without tons and tons of local support. Decades of awful repression of their own people is coming home to roost. Anyone not celebrating the deaths of Bagheri and Salami is either not paying attention or evil. Free rein. It’s a horse with reins, not a king who reigns. But replying because I read a joke today that was related to that. A Mossad agent covertly approaches an Iranian and asks him if he would be willing to fight the regime for $10,000. The Iranian doesn’t immediately say no but he’s clearly hesitating as he wrestles with a problem. After a pause he says “That’s a lot of money”. “It is” replies the Mossad agent. “It would take years to earn that much money”. “It would”. “Okay, I’ll do it” says the Iranian. “But I have one additional requirement. I can only pay in installments.” I like the joke and its also funny because it was not a typo. Growing up we called it free rein when we let the horse go where it wanted (some times for fun, sometimes because they were good at finding the cattle in the bush), never even occurred to me that was not what was meant. On June 17 2025 01:01 Mohdoo wrote:On June 16 2025 22:50 Billyboy wrote:
Most of the Ukrainian vloggers that I watch talking about that conflict have now put out videos talking about Israel vs Iran. There are a few things that were common across all of them.
They have been very pro Israel. They believe that Hamas is basically the little green men they dealt with and Iran is the real enemy. They do believe Iran is a existential threat to Israel based on their rhetoric and their various proxy armies. They talk about Israel defending themselves with admiration and almost jealousy that they can not do the same. They talk about the weapons facilities and how that will help them somewhat. Most of the major drone production of the Iranian tech is now in Russia, but they say many of the extra parts and some components are still made in Iran and that should help. There one common concern is oil prices spiking and that helping the Russian economy.
I was surprised that each of them I watched was so openly pro Israel, it might hurt their own personal income and their fund raising as they are bucking political lines pretty hard. I think maybe this point you’re making is helping me understand why I feel like such an oddity among my generally very left wing peers. Nothing you are describing sounds “pro Israel” to me. It more so sounds like a description of Israel be Iran as military foes. I think Iran has done a really good job at framing themselves as activists rather than an actual nation with a military. It works much better for Hamas and Hezbollah but it falls extremely flat when applied to Iran. Some people can’t seem to view Iranians as humans with agency. It’s like when politicians attempt outreach towards minorities by focusing on police violence or welfare. The unconscious extreme bias in their minds makes them frame minorities in inherently condescending ways. Western left wing folks tend to do the same with Iran. In an attempt to empathize with their culture/faith, they conclude Iranians are caught up in some peyote-infused ritual of war, unable to break away from anything other than war against Israel. I choose to view Iranians for the people I have known them to be. There’s a whole bunch of them in the Portland area so I’ve had lots of Iranian friends and coworkers and whatnot. They seem entirely cognizant. They think, feel, and make decisions just like you and I. This unique insight has allowed me to view Iranians as humans who could simply decide to refocus on things other than Israel. They do not share a border. They do not have competing interests. Iran has absolutely zero hope of eliminating Israel. Iran is getting humiliated more and more the longer Israel controls the airspace of Tehran. So when they completely refuse to just chill out and do something else, it’s very easy for me to label their government as complete lunatics. I think Israel’s formation was a mistake and I view them as a deeply unethical military/government. But that doesn’t mean Israel is wrong for being at war with Iran. Iran is being incredibly stupid and despite my feelings regarding Israel, it feels totally impossible to feel a shred of sympathy for Iran’s leadership. It feels very easy to view both Iran and Israel as willing participants. Israel is kicking their teeth in and the nation winning a war shouldn't be expected to retreat. It is on Iran to wave the white flag and beg for forgiveness. It does seem strange, almost infantilization to not hold Iran to the same standards as Israel. Lebanon, Yemen and Syria have sure not benefited from Iran's actions outside of its borders. It is strange how if Iran was an eastern European country doing what it is doing no one on this thread would be seeing them as victims. Do you get much interaction with the Iranians? I would be interested in their take. All the Iranians I have met/know are here for a reason. I don't think they represent the average Iranian, just like most groups who move to the US don't necessarily reflect where they immigrated from. They strongly disagree with Iran's current leadership and think living in the US is a way better idea. But they also totally hate Israel. Honestly I think they mirror my own feelings pretty well. The conflict is inherently tragic but I see no victims between the 2 of them. I don't have the same core hate for Israel as they do. But I definitely view Israel very negatively.
that sounds reasonable but I think they would actually represent them decently. It always looks like these repressive dictators have local support because they brutally crush descent. If power was to change hands I think you would see most Iranians celebrating. The tough one is we are probably at least a generation, best case, for the average Iranian not hating Israel and vice versa.
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On June 17 2025 02:28 Billyboy wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2025 01:43 Mohdoo wrote:On June 17 2025 01:31 Billyboy wrote:On June 16 2025 23:56 KwarK wrote:On June 16 2025 08:16 Billyboy wrote:On June 16 2025 05:47 PremoBeats wrote:https://www.axios.com/2025/06/15/trump-israel-iran-assassination-khameneiIf Israel had a viable plan or opportunity to assassinate Khamenei, it would suggest extraordinary levels of operational reach and intelligence penetration. Khamenei is likely the most heavily guarded person in Iran, protected by multiple overlapping layers (IRGC, internal intelligence, elite security). For Israel to even identify a time and place where he was vulnerable, they would need high-level human intelligence or close-proximity surveillance. And to even think about killing a political head of state implies the risk of setting off extreme geopolitical consequences. Or was it just a flex to show what they are capable of without a true desire to take action? Meanwhile Elon has turned on Starlink as Iran has shut down internet, although it is unclear how efficient this action is. Mossad has shown they have free rein inside of Iran, you don't get that level without tons and tons of local support. Decades of awful repression of their own people is coming home to roost. Anyone not celebrating the deaths of Bagheri and Salami is either not paying attention or evil. Free rein. It’s a horse with reins, not a king who reigns. But replying because I read a joke today that was related to that. A Mossad agent covertly approaches an Iranian and asks him if he would be willing to fight the regime for $10,000. The Iranian doesn’t immediately say no but he’s clearly hesitating as he wrestles with a problem. After a pause he says “That’s a lot of money”. “It is” replies the Mossad agent. “It would take years to earn that much money”. “It would”. “Okay, I’ll do it” says the Iranian. “But I have one additional requirement. I can only pay in installments.” I like the joke and its also funny because it was not a typo. Growing up we called it free rein when we let the horse go where it wanted (some times for fun, sometimes because they were good at finding the cattle in the bush), never even occurred to me that was not what was meant. On June 17 2025 01:01 Mohdoo wrote:On June 16 2025 22:50 Billyboy wrote:
Most of the Ukrainian vloggers that I watch talking about that conflict have now put out videos talking about Israel vs Iran. There are a few things that were common across all of them.
They have been very pro Israel. They believe that Hamas is basically the little green men they dealt with and Iran is the real enemy. They do believe Iran is a existential threat to Israel based on their rhetoric and their various proxy armies. They talk about Israel defending themselves with admiration and almost jealousy that they can not do the same. They talk about the weapons facilities and how that will help them somewhat. Most of the major drone production of the Iranian tech is now in Russia, but they say many of the extra parts and some components are still made in Iran and that should help. There one common concern is oil prices spiking and that helping the Russian economy.
I was surprised that each of them I watched was so openly pro Israel, it might hurt their own personal income and their fund raising as they are bucking political lines pretty hard. I think maybe this point you’re making is helping me understand why I feel like such an oddity among my generally very left wing peers. Nothing you are describing sounds “pro Israel” to me. It more so sounds like a description of Israel be Iran as military foes. I think Iran has done a really good job at framing themselves as activists rather than an actual nation with a military. It works much better for Hamas and Hezbollah but it falls extremely flat when applied to Iran. Some people can’t seem to view Iranians as humans with agency. It’s like when politicians attempt outreach towards minorities by focusing on police violence or welfare. The unconscious extreme bias in their minds makes them frame minorities in inherently condescending ways. Western left wing folks tend to do the same with Iran. In an attempt to empathize with their culture/faith, they conclude Iranians are caught up in some peyote-infused ritual of war, unable to break away from anything other than war against Israel. I choose to view Iranians for the people I have known them to be. There’s a whole bunch of them in the Portland area so I’ve had lots of Iranian friends and coworkers and whatnot. They seem entirely cognizant. They think, feel, and make decisions just like you and I. This unique insight has allowed me to view Iranians as humans who could simply decide to refocus on things other than Israel. They do not share a border. They do not have competing interests. Iran has absolutely zero hope of eliminating Israel. Iran is getting humiliated more and more the longer Israel controls the airspace of Tehran. So when they completely refuse to just chill out and do something else, it’s very easy for me to label their government as complete lunatics. I think Israel’s formation was a mistake and I view them as a deeply unethical military/government. But that doesn’t mean Israel is wrong for being at war with Iran. Iran is being incredibly stupid and despite my feelings regarding Israel, it feels totally impossible to feel a shred of sympathy for Iran’s leadership. It feels very easy to view both Iran and Israel as willing participants. Israel is kicking their teeth in and the nation winning a war shouldn't be expected to retreat. It is on Iran to wave the white flag and beg for forgiveness. It does seem strange, almost infantilization to not hold Iran to the same standards as Israel. Lebanon, Yemen and Syria have sure not benefited from Iran's actions outside of its borders. It is strange how if Iran was an eastern European country doing what it is doing no one on this thread would be seeing them as victims. Do you get much interaction with the Iranians? I would be interested in their take. All the Iranians I have met/know are here for a reason. I don't think they represent the average Iranian, just like most groups who move to the US don't necessarily reflect where they immigrated from. They strongly disagree with Iran's current leadership and think living in the US is a way better idea. But they also totally hate Israel. Honestly I think they mirror my own feelings pretty well. The conflict is inherently tragic but I see no victims between the 2 of them. I don't have the same core hate for Israel as they do. But I definitely view Israel very negatively. that sounds reasonable but I think they would actually represent them decently. It always looks like these repressive dictators have local support because they brutally crush descent. If power was to change hands I think you would see most Iranians celebrating. The tough one is we are probably at least a generation, best case, for the average Iranian not hating Israel and vice versa.
Well, if Iranian Americans represent Iranians as a whole, they all totally hate Israel lol. Its not like its lacking in passion either. And as much as there are some countries where repressive governments don't represent their citizens, the truth is that many do. Everything I know about Iran indicates the war with Israel is mostly supported. Now that they are watching their military remain locked out of their own god damn capital, I imagine that is beginning to shift. The "CEASEFIRE NOWWW!!!!1111" folks are showing how stubborn they are by not realizing what it means for a military to be pushed out of their capital.
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On June 17 2025 03:10 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2025 02:28 Billyboy wrote:On June 17 2025 01:43 Mohdoo wrote:On June 17 2025 01:31 Billyboy wrote:On June 16 2025 23:56 KwarK wrote:On June 16 2025 08:16 Billyboy wrote:On June 16 2025 05:47 PremoBeats wrote:https://www.axios.com/2025/06/15/trump-israel-iran-assassination-khameneiIf Israel had a viable plan or opportunity to assassinate Khamenei, it would suggest extraordinary levels of operational reach and intelligence penetration. Khamenei is likely the most heavily guarded person in Iran, protected by multiple overlapping layers (IRGC, internal intelligence, elite security). For Israel to even identify a time and place where he was vulnerable, they would need high-level human intelligence or close-proximity surveillance. And to even think about killing a political head of state implies the risk of setting off extreme geopolitical consequences. Or was it just a flex to show what they are capable of without a true desire to take action? Meanwhile Elon has turned on Starlink as Iran has shut down internet, although it is unclear how efficient this action is. Mossad has shown they have free rein inside of Iran, you don't get that level without tons and tons of local support. Decades of awful repression of their own people is coming home to roost. Anyone not celebrating the deaths of Bagheri and Salami is either not paying attention or evil. Free rein. It’s a horse with reins, not a king who reigns. But replying because I read a joke today that was related to that. A Mossad agent covertly approaches an Iranian and asks him if he would be willing to fight the regime for $10,000. The Iranian doesn’t immediately say no but he’s clearly hesitating as he wrestles with a problem. After a pause he says “That’s a lot of money”. “It is” replies the Mossad agent. “It would take years to earn that much money”. “It would”. “Okay, I’ll do it” says the Iranian. “But I have one additional requirement. I can only pay in installments.” I like the joke and its also funny because it was not a typo. Growing up we called it free rein when we let the horse go where it wanted (some times for fun, sometimes because they were good at finding the cattle in the bush), never even occurred to me that was not what was meant. On June 17 2025 01:01 Mohdoo wrote:On June 16 2025 22:50 Billyboy wrote:
Most of the Ukrainian vloggers that I watch talking about that conflict have now put out videos talking about Israel vs Iran. There are a few things that were common across all of them.
They have been very pro Israel. They believe that Hamas is basically the little green men they dealt with and Iran is the real enemy. They do believe Iran is a existential threat to Israel based on their rhetoric and their various proxy armies. They talk about Israel defending themselves with admiration and almost jealousy that they can not do the same. They talk about the weapons facilities and how that will help them somewhat. Most of the major drone production of the Iranian tech is now in Russia, but they say many of the extra parts and some components are still made in Iran and that should help. There one common concern is oil prices spiking and that helping the Russian economy.
I was surprised that each of them I watched was so openly pro Israel, it might hurt their own personal income and their fund raising as they are bucking political lines pretty hard. I think maybe this point you’re making is helping me understand why I feel like such an oddity among my generally very left wing peers. Nothing you are describing sounds “pro Israel” to me. It more so sounds like a description of Israel be Iran as military foes. I think Iran has done a really good job at framing themselves as activists rather than an actual nation with a military. It works much better for Hamas and Hezbollah but it falls extremely flat when applied to Iran. Some people can’t seem to view Iranians as humans with agency. It’s like when politicians attempt outreach towards minorities by focusing on police violence or welfare. The unconscious extreme bias in their minds makes them frame minorities in inherently condescending ways. Western left wing folks tend to do the same with Iran. In an attempt to empathize with their culture/faith, they conclude Iranians are caught up in some peyote-infused ritual of war, unable to break away from anything other than war against Israel. I choose to view Iranians for the people I have known them to be. There’s a whole bunch of them in the Portland area so I’ve had lots of Iranian friends and coworkers and whatnot. They seem entirely cognizant. They think, feel, and make decisions just like you and I. This unique insight has allowed me to view Iranians as humans who could simply decide to refocus on things other than Israel. They do not share a border. They do not have competing interests. Iran has absolutely zero hope of eliminating Israel. Iran is getting humiliated more and more the longer Israel controls the airspace of Tehran. So when they completely refuse to just chill out and do something else, it’s very easy for me to label their government as complete lunatics. I think Israel’s formation was a mistake and I view them as a deeply unethical military/government. But that doesn’t mean Israel is wrong for being at war with Iran. Iran is being incredibly stupid and despite my feelings regarding Israel, it feels totally impossible to feel a shred of sympathy for Iran’s leadership. It feels very easy to view both Iran and Israel as willing participants. Israel is kicking their teeth in and the nation winning a war shouldn't be expected to retreat. It is on Iran to wave the white flag and beg for forgiveness. It does seem strange, almost infantilization to not hold Iran to the same standards as Israel. Lebanon, Yemen and Syria have sure not benefited from Iran's actions outside of its borders. It is strange how if Iran was an eastern European country doing what it is doing no one on this thread would be seeing them as victims. Do you get much interaction with the Iranians? I would be interested in their take. All the Iranians I have met/know are here for a reason. I don't think they represent the average Iranian, just like most groups who move to the US don't necessarily reflect where they immigrated from. They strongly disagree with Iran's current leadership and think living in the US is a way better idea. But they also totally hate Israel. Honestly I think they mirror my own feelings pretty well. The conflict is inherently tragic but I see no victims between the 2 of them. I don't have the same core hate for Israel as they do. But I definitely view Israel very negatively. that sounds reasonable but I think they would actually represent them decently. It always looks like these repressive dictators have local support because they brutally crush descent. If power was to change hands I think you would see most Iranians celebrating. The tough one is we are probably at least a generation, best case, for the average Iranian not hating Israel and vice versa. Well, if Iranian Americans represent Iranians as a whole, they all totally hate Israel lol. Its not like its lacking in passion either. And as much as there are some countries where repressive governments don't represent their citizens, the truth is that many do. Everything I know about Iran indicates the war with Israel is mostly supported. Now that they are watching their military remain locked out of their own god damn capital, I imagine that is beginning to shift. The "CEASEFIRE NOWWW!!!!1111" folks are showing how stubborn they are by not realizing what it means for a military to be pushed out of their capital.
Sounds similar to how the Lebanese people feel about Hezbollah. It is going to be a long road to getting along when people in the area have been taught to hate each other basically since birth.
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This Tweet comes after Trump offered Iran a final chance at a deal and Khameini lobbied Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman to convince Trump to sign onto the whole "CEASEFIRE NOWWW!!!!1!!!!11111" shpeal.
It is very sad and chilling to hear him recommend a full and immediate evacuation of Tehran
It also appears Trump turned down Netanyahu's request to directly join the bombing right away:
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Trump just left the G7 meeting abruptly to go back to Whitehouse
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Looks like its officially happening.
Both China and US have told all US citizens to leave Israel ASAP via land border crossings. Trump told NSC to be prepared in the situation room. No matter how you slice it, looks like something very major is about to happen or just happened. And no matter what that thing is, it will lead to the fall of Iran's leadership. Crazy times.
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I'm thinking the US is going to get involved before the house or senate can block them.
Trump
“I have to be back. Very important,” he said, before gesturing to the G7 host, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney: “Great host. He did a fantastic job.
“But you probably see what I see,” he went on. “And I have to be back as soon as I can.”
Trump’s aides announced earlier he would depart Monday evening, a day earlier than planned, to attend to pressing matters back home.
“I have to be back early for obvious reasons,” Trump said. “They understand. This is big stuff.”
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United States43672 Posts
Yet more of Biden’s wars. This would never happen if Trump were president.
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What are the minimum conditions before it is reasonable to say WW3 has started?
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On June 17 2025 10:25 GreenHorizons wrote:
What are the minimum conditions before it is reasonable to say WW3 has started?
There are no formal legal or political conditions that must be met to officially declare "World War III." The term is informal and retrospective — like "World War I" or "World War II" — and would only likely be applied after the fact, based on the scale, scope, and impact of a conflict.
However, several conditions or characteristics would likely need to be present for a war to be considered World War III by historians, governments, and the public:
🔥 1. Involvement of Multiple Great Powers
At least two or more major world powers (e.g., the U.S., China, Russia, NATO countries) are directly engaged in full-scale war.
Proxy conflicts and regional skirmishes don't count unless they escalate into direct confrontation between these powers.
🌍 2. Global Scope
Fighting occurs across multiple continents and/or major oceans.
May include direct combat, cyberwarfare, and economic warfare with global ramifications.
🧨 3. High Intensity & Total War
Use of large-scale conventional military forces.
Possibly nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons.
Mobilization of entire national economies and populations for war, like in WWII.
🕊️ 4. Collapse of International Institutions
Organizations like the United Nations, NATO, or regional alliances are either ineffective, irrelevant, or themselves participants.
Diplomacy breaks down on a massive scale.
🛑 5. Disregard for the Post-WWII Global Order
The rules-based international order (UN Charter, Geneva Conventions, etc.) is openly violated.
Might include mass civilian targeting, ethnic cleansing, or systemic use of war crimes.
🧭 6. Massive Death Toll and Displacement
Tens of millions of deaths or more.
Large-scale refugee crises and the collapse of nation-states.
⚠️ Optional But Possible Indicators:
Mutual defense pacts (e.g., NATO Article 5) being triggered.
Open declarations of war between major states.
Cyberattacks crippling infrastructure worldwide.
Use of weapons of mass destruction (especially nuclear) across borders.
Important Note:
The declaration of war is no longer a formal requirement in most countries. For instance, the U.S. hasn't declared war officially since WWII, despite fighting in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan.
Summary:
World War III would likely be recognized not by a declaration but by its scale, actors involved, and global impact — politically, militarily, and socially. If major powers began direct warfare across continents, with mass destruction and breakdown of global governance, that is when historians and the public would likely label it World War III.
I don't think we are there yet.
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Northern Ireland26341 Posts
On June 17 2025 10:09 KwarK wrote:
Yet more of Biden’s wars. This would never happen if Trump were president.
If it weren’t for the rather terrible consequences of his incompetence, his administration getting consistently punked would be quite amusing.
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On June 17 2025 09:49 Billyboy wrote:
I'm thinking the US is going to get involved before the house or senate can block them.
Why would they block anything?
The 'can't have nukes' narrative will prevail even if Iran responds proportionally.
It's the political costs of starting of another war that worries US, but that's exactly why Israel is so convenient as it comes with the 'rogue state' deniability.
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Can we have a policy of not posting LLM summaries here?
The layout, grammar and vocabulary used is kind of revolting.
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EPT
