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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
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On June 18 2025 06:11 Mohdoo wrote:
I think Nebuchad is firmly convinced Israel plans to conquer all Muslim nations, including SA, Egypt, etc
I think its just something to accept and move on. I've tried to dig a little deeper and it doesn't go anywhere. Him genuinely thinking that makes everything else he thinks a lot more reasonable. I often thing the assumptions are more important than the conclusions and his disagreements with me are a good example of that. Since we disagree on the fundamental assumptions, can't agree on conclusions. In his eyes, all the peace with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey are temporary until Israel has the opportunity to conquer them.
Yeah sorry about that Mohdoo I kind of lost any interest in digging deeper on any topic with you, it happened more or less during the period where you decided to spend a decent amount of your time arguing that ethnic cleansing was the best outcome for Palestine.
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Northern Ireland24918 Posts
Maybe they are lying, who knows? I just don’t really agree with conflating the ‘Coalition of the Willing’ and Iraq, to this current scenario between Israel and Iran.
Iraq offered fuck all threat to those that attacked it, considerably less so with this one.
Iran is consistently, openly hostile. And it will have nukes, the question is merely when, not if, assuming no outside intervention.
Other nations in the region have somewhat normalised and formed some kind of standard relationship with Israel, even if it’s not always a warm one. Iran? Nah. Not really their thing.
I think Netanyahu is right for once. Albeit for completely the wrong reasons, and for no altruistic reason whatsoever.
Either Iran is irreparably fucked for a generation or two and the state and its behaviour is accurately reflective of its populace. Or it isn’t and regime change might be beneficial. A test I might add I think Israel also could do with passing.
As with tankie rhetoric on the Ukrainian conflict I personally jump off the ‘leftist’ train when it ends up at the ‘Israel can’t do anything about Iran’ station. Although I still reserve plenty of judgement when it comes to specifically what Israel chooses to do.
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On June 18 2025 06:12 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2025 05:58 Billyboy wrote:On June 18 2025 05:17 Nebuchad wrote:On June 18 2025 04:57 ETisME wrote:On June 18 2025 02:14 Nebuchad wrote:I would say something about how "Don't worry all the other wars in the Middle East failed but this time you're going to win" but I'm increasingly convinced that it's not even that people think it's going to win this time it's just that they don't have object permanence and they don't even remember the others failing. Worth discussing (maybe?): https://x.com/anewpolicyorg/status/1934663186395091181 You could say the same for diplomacy. attempted to stop Iran having exceedingly high quality level of uranium enrichment for civilian energy use for years and obviously failed. You still gotta try both diplomacy and take action. And stronger action if needed, even if the consequences are unknown. I was talking specifically at the level of our expression on this forum, at the level of taking these decisions the goal is to kill a bunch of muslims so obviously war is a very successful way of doing this. What makes you think that is the goal compared to the stated goal of destroying Iran's nuclear capability forever and the side quest of regime change? Mainly having a good understanding of Netanyahu and what drives him (and other fascists in general). In terms of concrete indications pointing me in that direction, I for example remember that Israel has been saying that Iran is a few minutes away from a nuclear weapon probably like once a year in the last 30 years, so it seems to me that the idea that even though US intelligence doesn't think this is true this time either, this time they're nailing it, is silly. I also happen to remember how exactly the same things, from nuclear weapons to being greeted as liberators, were said 20 years ago to justify the last war in the region, by more or less the same people from neocons to Glenn Beck to Netanyahu, and that time they were lying. Please note that they weren't just wrong, incorrect, as that would create some other conclusions; they weren't incorrect, they were lying, on purpose, and now they're using the same arguments to justify the same things. It would be much more logical, in those circumstances, if they were lying again.
The same thing was said about North Korea as well, and it was not true until it was. I think that the vast majority of the 16 million Jews, even the 12 or so million Zionists just want to live in peace. Most of the rest are of the understanding that 16 millions vs 2 billion goes poorly. But I'm sure some have fantasies of 10 generations from now taking down the Muslims, or God himself doing it during the apocalypse.
And in this one I don't think Netanyahu is dumb. He is about himself and taking out Israel's greatest enemy might be the only thing to keep him out of jail and even in power.
On June 18 2025 06:11 Mohdoo wrote:
I think Nebuchad is firmly convinced Israel plans to conquer all Muslim nations, including SA, Egypt, etc
I think its just something to accept and move on. I've tried to dig a little deeper and it doesn't go anywhere. Him genuinely thinking that makes everything else he thinks a lot more reasonable. I often thing the assumptions are more important than the conclusions and his disagreements with me are a good example of that. Since we disagree on the fundamental assumptions, can't agree on conclusions. In his eyes, all the peace with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey are temporary until Israel has the opportunity to conquer them.
I think you're right, I just don't really understand his logic. In other topics it does not seem to be this conspiratorial.
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On June 18 2025 06:38 Billyboy wrote:
The same thing was said about North Korea as well, and it was not true until it was. I think that the vast majority of the 16 million Jews, even the 12 or so million Zionists just want to live in peace. Most of the rest are of the understanding that 16 millions vs 2 billion goes poorly. But I'm sure some have fantasies of 10 generations from now taking down the Muslims, or God himself doing it during the apocalypse.
And in this one I don't think Netanyahu is dumb. He is about himself and taking out Israel's greatest enemy might be the only thing to keep him out of jail and even in power.
There is no connexion between your answer and what I said, so it is unclear to me why you posted any of this.
On June 18 2025 06:38 WombaT wrote:
Maybe they are lying, who knows? I just don’t really agree with conflating the ‘Coalition of the Willing’ and Iraq, to this current scenario between Israel and Iran.
Iraq offered fuck all threat to those that attacked it, considerably less so with this one.
Iran is consistently, openly hostile. And it will have nukes, the question is merely when, not if, assuming no outside intervention.
Other nations in the region have somewhat normalised and formed some kind of standard relationship with Israel, even if it’s not always a warm one. Iran? Nah. Not really their thing.
I think Netanyahu is right for once. Albeit for completely the wrong reasons, and for no altruistic reason whatsoever.
Either Iran is irreparably fucked for a generation or two and the state and its behaviour is accurately reflective of its populace. Or it isn’t and regime change might be beneficial. A test I might add I think Israel also could do with passing.
As with tankie rhetoric on the Ukrainian conflict I personally jump off the ‘leftist’ train when it ends up at the ‘Israel can’t do anything about Iran’ station. Although I still reserve plenty of judgement when it comes to specifically what Israel chooses to do.
The populace of Iran isn't in a fixed state. When people are under threat, they lean more toward authoritarianism than they would otherwise. You can observe that in Europe where we are under no threat at all but just presenting immigrants as dangerous and ready to great replace us is leading a bunch of our populations to vote for far right freaks. They're not going to be fucked because their government is reflective of the populace, they're going to be fucked because that's how these things tend to go.
But hey, to be honest we could do with a wave of iranian immigration so that our far rights get elected quicker, it's not like we're doing anything with the time we have.
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Looks like Israel has made their selection:
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5355513-iran-reza-pahlavi-rebel-khamenei/
Reza Pahlavi, the exiled crown prince of Iran and son of the last Persian Shah, urged Iranians on Tuesday to prepare for the impending fall of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Republic as the country struggles to fight off attacks from Israel.
“The Islamic Republic has reached its end and is in the process of collapsing,” Pahlavi wrote on the social platform X. “Khamenei, like a frightened rat, has gone into hiding underground and has lost control of the situation.”
“What has begun is irreversible. The future is bright, and together, we will pass through this sharp turn in history,” he added.
The military conflict between Iran and Israel stretched into its fifth day Tuesday, with little signs of slowing as Israel hammers its Middle East rival over Tehran’s nuclear pursuits.
President Trump departed the Group of Seven summit of world leaders in Canada late Monday — a day earlier than expected to return to Washington to monitor the ongoing conflict. He met with top security officials in Situation Room on Tuesday to assess the developments.
He has not ruled out the possibility of U.S. military involvement.
The Pahlavi dynasty ruled Iran from 1925 to 1979, when it was overthrown in the Islamic Revolution.
Pahlavi, penning his social media posts in English and Farsi, directed the message to his “fellow countrymen” and encouraged an uprising.
“Now is the time to rise; the time to reclaim Iran,” he wrote. “Let us all come forward … and bring about the end of this regime.”
Pahlavi advised that there is a plan to establish a democratic government in Iran within 100 days of the collapse of the Islamic Republic.
He also urged “military, law enforcement, security forces and state employees” to join the effort to topple the government under Khamenei.
“Do not stand against the Iranian people for the sake of a regime whose fall has begun and is inevitable,” Pahlavi wrote. “Do not sacrifice yourselves for a decaying regime.”
“By standing with the people, you can save your lives. Play a historic role in the transition from the Islamic Republic, and take part in building the future of Iran,” he added.
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Reading about some very insane threats coming from Iran right now.
Might be BS cos its from random twitter accounts.
"tonight will be remembered for centuries" was one of them.
Its probably just hot air tbh.
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On June 18 2025 06:56 Jockmcplop wrote:
Reading about some very insane threats coming from Iran right now.
Might be BS cos its from random twitter accounts.
"tonight will be remembered for centuries" was one of them.
Its probably just hot air tbh.
What are you reading? Based on the G7 statement and Germany's statement, we ought to assume these folks are assuming Khameini is committed enough to do something pretty wild.
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On June 18 2025 07:01 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2025 06:56 Jockmcplop wrote:
Reading about some very insane threats coming from Iran right now.
Might be BS cos its from random twitter accounts.
"tonight will be remembered for centuries" was one of them.
Its probably just hot air tbh. What are you reading? Based on the G7 statement and Germany's statement, we ought to assume these folks are assuming Khameini is committed enough to do something pretty wild.
I have some friends who could be described 'pro Iran extremists' when they get on the internet.
They're all excited because they are all talking about something huge being about to go down.
I genuinely think its nonsense but I'm just posting it here anyway.
Even if its true according to higher ups in Iran, I get the feeling they drastically overestimate their ability to do anything effective with Israel and the US on the other side.
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Northern Ireland24918 Posts
On June 18 2025 06:48 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2025 06:38 Billyboy wrote:
The same thing was said about North Korea as well, and it was not true until it was. I think that the vast majority of the 16 million Jews, even the 12 or so million Zionists just want to live in peace. Most of the rest are of the understanding that 16 millions vs 2 billion goes poorly. But I'm sure some have fantasies of 10 generations from now taking down the Muslims, or God himself doing it during the apocalypse.
And in this one I don't think Netanyahu is dumb. He is about himself and taking out Israel's greatest enemy might be the only thing to keep him out of jail and even in power.
There is no connexion between your answer and what I said, so it is unclear to me why you posted any of this. Show nested quote +On June 18 2025 06:38 WombaT wrote:
Maybe they are lying, who knows? I just don’t really agree with conflating the ‘Coalition of the Willing’ and Iraq, to this current scenario between Israel and Iran.
Iraq offered fuck all threat to those that attacked it, considerably less so with this one.
Iran is consistently, openly hostile. And it will have nukes, the question is merely when, not if, assuming no outside intervention.
Other nations in the region have somewhat normalised and formed some kind of standard relationship with Israel, even if it’s not always a warm one. Iran? Nah. Not really their thing.
I think Netanyahu is right for once. Albeit for completely the wrong reasons, and for no altruistic reason whatsoever.
Either Iran is irreparably fucked for a generation or two and the state and its behaviour is accurately reflective of its populace. Or it isn’t and regime change might be beneficial. A test I might add I think Israel also could do with passing.
As with tankie rhetoric on the Ukrainian conflict I personally jump off the ‘leftist’ train when it ends up at the ‘Israel can’t do anything about Iran’ station. Although I still reserve plenty of judgement when it comes to specifically what Israel chooses to do. The populace of Iran isn't in a fixed state. When people are under threat, they lean more toward authoritarianism than they would otherwise. You can observe that in Europe where we are under no threat at all but just presenting immigrants as dangerous and ready to great replace us is leading a bunch of our populations to vote for far right freaks. They're not going to be fucked because their government is reflective of the populace, they're going to be fucked because that's how these things tend to go. But hey, to be honest we could do with a wave of iranian immigration so that our far rights get elected quicker, it's not like we're doing anything with the time we have.
That’s frequently true but it’s not axiomatic. It often, but doesn’t always follow.
Regardless, I highly doubt the actualisation of the average Iranian is on the Israeli radar, although I imagine they’d prosper under a different regime
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On June 18 2025 07:08 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2025 06:48 Nebuchad wrote:On June 18 2025 06:38 Billyboy wrote:
The same thing was said about North Korea as well, and it was not true until it was. I think that the vast majority of the 16 million Jews, even the 12 or so million Zionists just want to live in peace. Most of the rest are of the understanding that 16 millions vs 2 billion goes poorly. But I'm sure some have fantasies of 10 generations from now taking down the Muslims, or God himself doing it during the apocalypse.
And in this one I don't think Netanyahu is dumb. He is about himself and taking out Israel's greatest enemy might be the only thing to keep him out of jail and even in power.
There is no connexion between your answer and what I said, so it is unclear to me why you posted any of this. On June 18 2025 06:38 WombaT wrote:
Maybe they are lying, who knows? I just don’t really agree with conflating the ‘Coalition of the Willing’ and Iraq, to this current scenario between Israel and Iran.
Iraq offered fuck all threat to those that attacked it, considerably less so with this one.
Iran is consistently, openly hostile. And it will have nukes, the question is merely when, not if, assuming no outside intervention.
Other nations in the region have somewhat normalised and formed some kind of standard relationship with Israel, even if it’s not always a warm one. Iran? Nah. Not really their thing.
I think Netanyahu is right for once. Albeit for completely the wrong reasons, and for no altruistic reason whatsoever.
Either Iran is irreparably fucked for a generation or two and the state and its behaviour is accurately reflective of its populace. Or it isn’t and regime change might be beneficial. A test I might add I think Israel also could do with passing.
As with tankie rhetoric on the Ukrainian conflict I personally jump off the ‘leftist’ train when it ends up at the ‘Israel can’t do anything about Iran’ station. Although I still reserve plenty of judgement when it comes to specifically what Israel chooses to do. The populace of Iran isn't in a fixed state. When people are under threat, they lean more toward authoritarianism than they would otherwise. You can observe that in Europe where we are under no threat at all but just presenting immigrants as dangerous and ready to great replace us is leading a bunch of our populations to vote for far right freaks. They're not going to be fucked because their government is reflective of the populace, they're going to be fucked because that's how these things tend to go. But hey, to be honest we could do with a wave of iranian immigration so that our far rights get elected quicker, it's not like we're doing anything with the time we have. That’s frequently true but it’s not axiomatic. It often, but doesn’t always follow.
All the conditions for it to follow are there, to a T, including the fact that any kind of "democracy" that could replace the current regime would obviously be a fake democracy in which only candidates that have the approval of Israel and the US are allowed. But if we're looking at the post from Mohdoo about the descendant of the Shah's statements, they might even skip the fake democracy part.
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On June 18 2025 07:06 Jockmcplop wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2025 07:01 Mohdoo wrote:On June 18 2025 06:56 Jockmcplop wrote:
Reading about some very insane threats coming from Iran right now.
Might be BS cos its from random twitter accounts.
"tonight will be remembered for centuries" was one of them.
Its probably just hot air tbh. What are you reading? Based on the G7 statement and Germany's statement, we ought to assume these folks are assuming Khameini is committed enough to do something pretty wild. I have some friends who could be described 'pro Iran extremists' when they get on the internet. They're all excited because they are all talking about something huge being about to go down. I genuinely think its nonsense but I'm just posting it here anyway. Even if its true according to higher ups in Iran, I get the feeling they drastically overestimate their ability to do anything effective with Israel and the US on the other side.
Ah, I found it. Very sad situation by the sounds of it.
Iranian State TV has said: "Tonight, a great surprise will occur, one that the world will remember for centuries."
So it sounds like Khameini is indeed deciding to ruin everyone else's day rather than just surrendering.
Note: Whatever he's got cooking means he knows they lost and he just wants to shit things up best he can on his way out. This is strictly a bad thing for the Iranian people. I hope nothing happens. But if something does happen, it conclusively proves removing Khameini was the right move regardless of who it was that did it.
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On June 18 2025 06:12 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2025 05:58 Billyboy wrote:On June 18 2025 05:17 Nebuchad wrote:On June 18 2025 04:57 ETisME wrote:On June 18 2025 02:14 Nebuchad wrote:I would say something about how "Don't worry all the other wars in the Middle East failed but this time you're going to win" but I'm increasingly convinced that it's not even that people think it's going to win this time it's just that they don't have object permanence and they don't even remember the others failing. Worth discussing (maybe?): https://x.com/anewpolicyorg/status/1934663186395091181 You could say the same for diplomacy. attempted to stop Iran having exceedingly high quality level of uranium enrichment for civilian energy use for years and obviously failed. You still gotta try both diplomacy and take action. And stronger action if needed, even if the consequences are unknown. I was talking specifically at the level of our expression on this forum, at the level of taking these decisions the goal is to kill a bunch of muslims so obviously war is a very successful way of doing this. What makes you think that is the goal compared to the stated goal of destroying Iran's nuclear capability forever and the side quest of regime change? Mainly having a good understanding of Netanyahu and what drives him (and other fascists in general). In terms of concrete indications pointing me in that direction, I for example remember that Israel has been saying that Iran is a few minutes away from a nuclear weapon probably like once a year in the last 30 years, so it seems to me that the idea that even though US intelligence doesn't think this is true this time either, this time they're nailing it, is silly. I also happen to remember how exactly the same things, from nuclear weapons to being greeted as liberators, were said 20 years ago to justify the last war in the region, by more or less the same people from neocons to Glenn Beck to Netanyahu, and that time they were lying. Please note that they weren't just wrong, incorrect, as that would create some other conclusions; they weren't incorrect, they were lying, on purpose, and now they're using the same arguments to justify the same things. It would be much more logical, in those circumstances, if they were lying again.
Doesn't take a genius to know Iran with their uranium enrichment beyond civilian energy required level, is an open book about what their intention is.
20 years of progress is 20 years of progress. Infrastructure and technology etc.
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On June 18 2025 06:56 Jockmcplop wrote:
Reading about some very insane threats coming from Iran right now.
Might be BS cos its from random twitter accounts.
"tonight will be remembered for centuries" was one of them.
Its probably just hot air tbh.
I just hope I get to see Ado in concert in Amsterdam on saturday, after that I can die I don't really care
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On June 18 2025 07:27 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2025 07:06 Jockmcplop wrote:On June 18 2025 07:01 Mohdoo wrote:On June 18 2025 06:56 Jockmcplop wrote:
Reading about some very insane threats coming from Iran right now.
Might be BS cos its from random twitter accounts.
"tonight will be remembered for centuries" was one of them.
Its probably just hot air tbh. What are you reading? Based on the G7 statement and Germany's statement, we ought to assume these folks are assuming Khameini is committed enough to do something pretty wild. I have some friends who could be described 'pro Iran extremists' when they get on the internet. They're all excited because they are all talking about something huge being about to go down. I genuinely think its nonsense but I'm just posting it here anyway. Even if its true according to higher ups in Iran, I get the feeling they drastically overestimate their ability to do anything effective with Israel and the US on the other side. Ah, I found it. Very sad situation by the sounds of it. Iranian State TV has said: Show nested quote +"Tonight, a great surprise will occur, one that the world will remember for centuries." So it sounds like Khameini is indeed deciding to ruin everyone else's day rather than just surrendering. Note: Whatever he's got cooking means he knows they lost and he just wants to shit things up best he can on his way out. This is strictly a bad thing for the Iranian people. I hope nothing happens. But if something does happen, it conclusively proves removing Khameini was the right move regardless of who it was that did it.
Agreed on all counts tbh.
I'm not sure they are physically able to surprise people at this point, but obviously they have changed (having been given quite a push) from bring a state of evil self interest to an end of the world cult.
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Everything I am reading indicates Iran launched a bit of a nothing burger set of missiles. But I can't imagine Iran would talk so big and then do nothing. I am concerned some of those missiles are dirty bombs or something. Perhaps a few waves to prod for openings, and then the grand finale at the end? god damn this situation just sucks all around.
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On June 18 2025 06:48 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2025 06:38 Billyboy wrote:
The same thing was said about North Korea as well, and it was not true until it was. I think that the vast majority of the 16 million Jews, even the 12 or so million Zionists just want to live in peace. Most of the rest are of the understanding that 16 millions vs 2 billion goes poorly. But I'm sure some have fantasies of 10 generations from now taking down the Muslims, or God himself doing it during the apocalypse.
And in this one I don't think Netanyahu is dumb. He is about himself and taking out Israel's greatest enemy might be the only thing to keep him out of jail and even in power.
There is no connexion between your answer and what I said, so it is unclear to me why you posted any of this. Show nested quote +On June 18 2025 06:38 WombaT wrote:
Maybe they are lying, who knows? I just don’t really agree with conflating the ‘Coalition of the Willing’ and Iraq, to this current scenario between Israel and Iran.
Iraq offered fuck all threat to those that attacked it, considerably less so with this one.
Iran is consistently, openly hostile. And it will have nukes, the question is merely when, not if, assuming no outside intervention.
Other nations in the region have somewhat normalised and formed some kind of standard relationship with Israel, even if it’s not always a warm one. Iran? Nah. Not really their thing.
I think Netanyahu is right for once. Albeit for completely the wrong reasons, and for no altruistic reason whatsoever.
Either Iran is irreparably fucked for a generation or two and the state and its behaviour is accurately reflective of its populace. Or it isn’t and regime change might be beneficial. A test I might add I think Israel also could do with passing.
As with tankie rhetoric on the Ukrainian conflict I personally jump off the ‘leftist’ train when it ends up at the ‘Israel can’t do anything about Iran’ station. Although I still reserve plenty of judgement when it comes to specifically what Israel chooses to do. The populace of Iran isn't in a fixed state. When people are under threat, they lean more toward authoritarianism than they would otherwise. You can observe that in Europe where we are under no threat at all but just presenting immigrants as dangerous and ready to great replace us is leading a bunch of our populations to vote for far right freaks. They're not going to be fucked because their government is reflective of the populace, they're going to be fucked because that's how these things tend to go. But hey, to be honest we could do with a wave of iranian immigration so that our far rights get elected quicker, it's not like we're doing anything with the time we have.
I thought it was easy enough to make the connection but here you go. The NK part was to show that just because people have been saying they are close for a long time does not mean that they are wrong now. The UN watchdog said something along the lines of a do not think they were days a way but also not years, hard to give an exact time frame. I have no idea how close they were (and you have no idea either) but they were trying to get one and that Israel thought this was the best time is realistic. It doesn't mean they would have it tomorrow, it means that they had the had intelligence in place to do what they have done.
The rest was about why I think your theory that they are just out to kill some Muslims makes no sense.
I also think you probably understood that was what I meant.
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On June 18 2025 07:45 Mohdoo wrote:
Everything I am reading indicates Iran launched a bit of a nothing burger set of missiles. But I can't imagine Iran would talk so big and then do nothing. I am concerned some of those missiles are dirty bombs or something. Perhaps a few waves to prod for openings, and then the grand finale at the end? god damn this situation just sucks all around.
I think they are saying it to project power to their own people as they try to hang onto rule. They have been basically repeating what Israel is saying (evacuate your main cities, were going after your air fields, your news stations will be destroyed) just without any of the results for days. I'm not sure they have much capability to do that much with how many launchers have been destroyed and with Israel having complete air superiority and satellite coverage. It appears like almost every time they launch a missile that launcher gets hit and they can no longer launch in the volume it takes to overwhelm the Israeli air defenses.
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On June 18 2025 07:49 Billyboy wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2025 07:45 Mohdoo wrote:
Everything I am reading indicates Iran launched a bit of a nothing burger set of missiles. But I can't imagine Iran would talk so big and then do nothing. I am concerned some of those missiles are dirty bombs or something. Perhaps a few waves to prod for openings, and then the grand finale at the end? god damn this situation just sucks all around. I think they are saying it to project power to their own people as they try to hang onto rule. They have been basically repeating what Israel is saying (evacuate your main cities, were going after your air fields, your news stations will be destroyed) just without any of the results for days. I'm not sure they have much capability to do that much with how many launchers have been destroyed and with Israel having complete air superiority and satellite coverage. It appears like almost every time they launch a missile that launcher gets hit and they can no longer launch in the volume it takes to overwhelm the Israeli air defenses.
Yeah I mean I wouldn't put it past them to try some kind of hail mary crazy attack, but I also think it would likely be intercepted.
I'm extremely worried about regime change on Israel's terms.
I think long term it will just cause the exact same problems of the last 80 years in Iran.
Having said that, its true that the current lot in charge of Iran need to go. Now.
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On June 18 2025 07:46 Billyboy wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2025 06:48 Nebuchad wrote:On June 18 2025 06:38 Billyboy wrote:
The same thing was said about North Korea as well, and it was not true until it was. I think that the vast majority of the 16 million Jews, even the 12 or so million Zionists just want to live in peace. Most of the rest are of the understanding that 16 millions vs 2 billion goes poorly. But I'm sure some have fantasies of 10 generations from now taking down the Muslims, or God himself doing it during the apocalypse.
And in this one I don't think Netanyahu is dumb. He is about himself and taking out Israel's greatest enemy might be the only thing to keep him out of jail and even in power.
There is no connexion between your answer and what I said, so it is unclear to me why you posted any of this. On June 18 2025 06:38 WombaT wrote:
Maybe they are lying, who knows? I just don’t really agree with conflating the ‘Coalition of the Willing’ and Iraq, to this current scenario between Israel and Iran.
Iraq offered fuck all threat to those that attacked it, considerably less so with this one.
Iran is consistently, openly hostile. And it will have nukes, the question is merely when, not if, assuming no outside intervention.
Other nations in the region have somewhat normalised and formed some kind of standard relationship with Israel, even if it’s not always a warm one. Iran? Nah. Not really their thing.
I think Netanyahu is right for once. Albeit for completely the wrong reasons, and for no altruistic reason whatsoever.
Either Iran is irreparably fucked for a generation or two and the state and its behaviour is accurately reflective of its populace. Or it isn’t and regime change might be beneficial. A test I might add I think Israel also could do with passing.
As with tankie rhetoric on the Ukrainian conflict I personally jump off the ‘leftist’ train when it ends up at the ‘Israel can’t do anything about Iran’ station. Although I still reserve plenty of judgement when it comes to specifically what Israel chooses to do. The populace of Iran isn't in a fixed state. When people are under threat, they lean more toward authoritarianism than they would otherwise. You can observe that in Europe where we are under no threat at all but just presenting immigrants as dangerous and ready to great replace us is leading a bunch of our populations to vote for far right freaks. They're not going to be fucked because their government is reflective of the populace, they're going to be fucked because that's how these things tend to go. But hey, to be honest we could do with a wave of iranian immigration so that our far rights get elected quicker, it's not like we're doing anything with the time we have. I thought it was easy enough to make the connection but here you go. The NK part was to show that just because people have been saying they are close for a long time does not mean that they are wrong now. The UN watchdog said something along the lines of a do not think they were days a way but also not years, hard to give an exact time frame. I have no idea how close they were (and you have no idea either) but they were trying to get one and that Israel thought this was the best time is realistic. It doesn't mean they would have it tomorrow, it means that they had the had intelligence in place to do what they have done. The rest was about why I think your theory that they are just out to kill some Muslims makes no sense. I also think you probably understood that was what I meant.
Israel didn't think it was the best time, they thought the best time was 30 years ago, then 29 years ago, then 28 years ago, then 27 years ago, then 26 years ago, then 25 years ago, and so on. I am having a hard time understanding how you don't see how that could possibly be relevant.
There is no connexion between what you perceive the views of the average Israeli to be and the reason why the Netanyahu government is doing what it's doing. You can use a very simple metric to check this: notice how a bunch of things are happening under Trump in the US, and those things are... all of them? 95% of them? unpopular, and yet they're happening anyway.
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On June 18 2025 07:53 Jockmcplop wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2025 07:49 Billyboy wrote:On June 18 2025 07:45 Mohdoo wrote:
Everything I am reading indicates Iran launched a bit of a nothing burger set of missiles. But I can't imagine Iran would talk so big and then do nothing. I am concerned some of those missiles are dirty bombs or something. Perhaps a few waves to prod for openings, and then the grand finale at the end? god damn this situation just sucks all around. I think they are saying it to project power to their own people as they try to hang onto rule. They have been basically repeating what Israel is saying (evacuate your main cities, were going after your air fields, your news stations will be destroyed) just without any of the results for days. I'm not sure they have much capability to do that much with how many launchers have been destroyed and with Israel having complete air superiority and satellite coverage. It appears like almost every time they launch a missile that launcher gets hit and they can no longer launch in the volume it takes to overwhelm the Israeli air defenses. Yeah I mean I wouldn't put it past them to try some kind of hail mary crazy attack, but I also think it would likely be intercepted. I'm extremely worried about regime change on Israel's terms. I think long term it will just cause the exact same problems of the last 80 years in Iran. Having said that, its true that the current lot in charge of Iran need to go. Now.
Yeah, having the last successful regime change being the end of ww2 is pretty scary. Having Iran and Syria both getting "fresh" starts is a glimmer of hope. The whole region outside of Iran seems to be trying to move forward. I have no idea what percentage I'd put the likelihood of success at, but the bar is pretty low in Iran for it to get better.
On June 18 2025 07:53 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2025 07:46 Billyboy wrote:On June 18 2025 06:48 Nebuchad wrote:On June 18 2025 06:38 Billyboy wrote:
The same thing was said about North Korea as well, and it was not true until it was. I think that the vast majority of the 16 million Jews, even the 12 or so million Zionists just want to live in peace. Most of the rest are of the understanding that 16 millions vs 2 billion goes poorly. But I'm sure some have fantasies of 10 generations from now taking down the Muslims, or God himself doing it during the apocalypse.
And in this one I don't think Netanyahu is dumb. He is about himself and taking out Israel's greatest enemy might be the only thing to keep him out of jail and even in power.
There is no connexion between your answer and what I said, so it is unclear to me why you posted any of this. On June 18 2025 06:38 WombaT wrote:
Maybe they are lying, who knows? I just don’t really agree with conflating the ‘Coalition of the Willing’ and Iraq, to this current scenario between Israel and Iran.
Iraq offered fuck all threat to those that attacked it, considerably less so with this one.
Iran is consistently, openly hostile. And it will have nukes, the question is merely when, not if, assuming no outside intervention.
Other nations in the region have somewhat normalised and formed some kind of standard relationship with Israel, even if it’s not always a warm one. Iran? Nah. Not really their thing.
I think Netanyahu is right for once. Albeit for completely the wrong reasons, and for no altruistic reason whatsoever.
Either Iran is irreparably fucked for a generation or two and the state and its behaviour is accurately reflective of its populace. Or it isn’t and regime change might be beneficial. A test I might add I think Israel also could do with passing.
As with tankie rhetoric on the Ukrainian conflict I personally jump off the ‘leftist’ train when it ends up at the ‘Israel can’t do anything about Iran’ station. Although I still reserve plenty of judgement when it comes to specifically what Israel chooses to do. The populace of Iran isn't in a fixed state. When people are under threat, they lean more toward authoritarianism than they would otherwise. You can observe that in Europe where we are under no threat at all but just presenting immigrants as dangerous and ready to great replace us is leading a bunch of our populations to vote for far right freaks. They're not going to be fucked because their government is reflective of the populace, they're going to be fucked because that's how these things tend to go. But hey, to be honest we could do with a wave of iranian immigration so that our far rights get elected quicker, it's not like we're doing anything with the time we have. I thought it was easy enough to make the connection but here you go. The NK part was to show that just because people have been saying they are close for a long time does not mean that they are wrong now. The UN watchdog said something along the lines of a do not think they were days a way but also not years, hard to give an exact time frame. I have no idea how close they were (and you have no idea either) but they were trying to get one and that Israel thought this was the best time is realistic. It doesn't mean they would have it tomorrow, it means that they had the had intelligence in place to do what they have done. The rest was about why I think your theory that they are just out to kill some Muslims makes no sense. I also think you probably understood that was what I meant. Israel didn't think it was the best time, they thought the best time was 30 years ago, then 29 years ago, then 28 years ago, then 27 years ago, then 26 years ago, then 25 years ago, and so on. I am having a hard time understanding how you don't see how that could possibly be relevant. There is no connexion between what you perceive the views of the average Israeli to be and the reason why the Netanyahu government is doing what it's doing. You can use a very simple metric to check this: notice how a bunch of things are happening under Trump in the US, and those things are... all of them? 95% of them? unpopular, and yet they're happening anyway.
It is relevant, the same as it was that SK thought the best time was 30 years ago, then 29, then 28, the 27, the 26, then 25. But also eventually they were right and it is not something you can wind back. I don't understand why you think that is not relevant.
Of course what the Israeli's think matters, Israel is a democracy. It does not mean they can stop it today, but Netanyahu is intelligent and self interested, he wants to remain in power and more importantly out of jail. things happening in the US are popular with like 40% of the population or whatever, Trumps numbers have barely dropped. Tons of people love what he is doing with immigration, his base is largely unchanged. Could him going back on his no war talk matter? Maybe, but going back on the 1000 other things has not. I have no idea where you are getting the 95% number from? Like some single issue that is low on Americans priorities or what?
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EPT
