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Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine - Page 217

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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
February 15 2024 16:26 GMT
#4321
--- Nuked ---
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12142 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-02-15 17:01:37
February 15 2024 16:38 GMT
#4322
On February 16 2024 01:26 JimmiC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 16 2024 00:30 Nebuchad wrote:
On February 16 2024 00:26 JimmiC wrote:
On February 15 2024 23:21 Nebuchad wrote:
On February 15 2024 23:13 JimmiC wrote:
On February 15 2024 22:57 Nebuchad wrote:
Cerebrate is obviously hateful in that he takes a situation where a group is being oppressed and destroyed by another group, and he finds quirks and justifications to explain why this is either not happening or not a big deal. My perception of the situation is that, since he's obviously smart, he knows what's happening. He just thinks it's a good thing that it's happening, but also that he shouldn't admit that he thinks that. That he can fool some people with his words speaks to his rhetorical talent, not to his heart. You wouldn't be doing what he's doing if you didn't have hatred.

Clearly you know this is your presumption and not factual correct? You can choose to believe it, but it is a hateful interpretation of his words. I choose to not take the hateful interpretation. The reasons are in his words but also in reading about Israeli politics and culture. He can correct me if I’m wrong but I would guess he would fall center or perhaps even center right. He is open to a 2 state solution and he would be completely willing to end the settlements if some sort of lasting peace was agreed upon.

There are Israelis that hold the views you presume Cerebrate1 to hold, maybe upwards of 15%. But none of his words have said that, so why be so sure of the worst? Why not use your facts an knowledge to counter his posts with your truth?

Even if you are right, which I do not believe you to be, why wouldn’t you use his strategy but beat him with the truth? It would be far more interesting and informative than to have a couple of people twisting what ever he says to the most evil possibility and then insult him. It’s lazy and weak.


Yes I agree we have a different opinion, which is what is beautiful about this forum. I'm fine with that.

That 15% figure is very low there friend, you might want to update that. A culture that is exposed to a lot of propaganda by the far right, constantly, will develop views that are in line with the far right's vision, unfortunately.

It is true that it's a common problem for me that when someone is either saying nonsense or dishonest, I tend to assume that they're dishonest, so that's a bias that I have. I have often found that I agree with the sentiment that "Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity" sure does a lot of heavy lifting for malice. But I don't think it's happening in this specific situation.


I don’t think it’s stupidity or malice, I think it is what he says is true to him. We disagree a fair bit actually it just gets drowned out because I’m not insulting him. Calling it one or the other is needlessly insulting, I’m not sure why you feel the need to go there so often, unlike some you are capable of much more and better and show it with some consistency.

I get my 15% from the polling, that I have shared, where do you get your above 15% from? And how high do you estimate it to be?


For example this:

https://time.com/6333781/israel-hamas-poll-palestine/

"Poll results were also hawkish when it came to the use of force in Gaza: 57.5% of Israeli Jews said that they believed the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) were using too little firepower in Gaza, 36.6% said the IDF was using an appropriate amount of firepower, while just 1.8% said they believed the IDF was using too much fire power, while 4.2% said they weren’t sure whether it was using too much or too little firepower."

I stand corrected. I would guess that since then the anger has dropped but not down to the 15% I suggested. It is 15% that support Bibi.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/only-15-israelis-want-netanyahu-keep-job-after-gaza-war-poll-finds-2024-01-02/


Yeah Bibi has a lot of issues currently and that's a good thing, he's terrible. But a lot of his issues are linked to him as an individual, he's corrupt, he failed to protect Israel on Oct 7th, and so on. The fact that he'll probably lose the next election is not necessarily evidence that Israelis want a different system of politics (although some do obviously), more a different leader. We can see that because there's polling for Yair Lapid (leader of the opposition) vs Netanyahu, and Netanyahu still narrowly wins that even though he's so unpopular as a whole.

Edit: I don't want to make it sound like I think this is surprising, btw. Systems are generally very entrenched. It is extremely difficult to meaningfully change the direction of any country's politics in a short amount of time.
No will to live, no wish to die
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
February 15 2024 16:46 GMT
#4323
--- Nuked ---
Ryzel
Profile Joined December 2012
United States528 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-02-15 16:53:53
February 15 2024 16:48 GMT
#4324
On February 15 2024 22:57 Nebuchad wrote:
Cerebrate is obviously hateful in that he takes a situation where a group is being oppressed and destroyed by another group, and he finds quirks and justifications to explain why this is either not happening or not a big deal. My perception of the situation is that, since he's obviously smart, he knows what's happening. He just thinks it's a good thing that it's happening, but also that he shouldn't admit that he thinks that. That he can fool some people with his words speaks to his rhetorical talent, not to his heart. You wouldn't be doing what he's doing if you didn't have hatred.


I get why you’re saying this, but it’s disingenuous to say he is trying to say bad things aren’t happening and/or aren’t a big deal. While he’s debated certain specific instances, I’ve never seen him deny that tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians are dying. I've also never seen him say that tens of thousands of Palestinians dying aren’t a big deal. I DO think that there are other things he views as a bigger deal though, things that you vehemently disagree warrant the importance he places on them.

It seems to me from Cerebrate’s posting history that the foundation of his value hierarchy stems from Israeli self-defense. Most of the content he chooses to share references the pervasiveness of anti-Israeli thoughts and actions, particularly in places one would least expect, as well as debunking specific claims that portray Israel in a negative light. He’s never made a post actively attacking Palestinians (in fact his knowledge of on-the-ground prices of aid for an average Gazan indicates he cares about understanding their problems). While it’s theoretically possible he’s intentionally dog whistling in an attempt to low key spread hatred of Palestinians, that requires a level of bad faith presupposition that could just as easily (if not more so) apply to you if someone chose.

The core of your disagreement lies in your disagreement of the priority of Israeli self-defense, specifically over the lives of Palestinian civilians. Cerebrate’s rhetorical approach is to show how dangerous and insidious the bad actors (Hamas et al.) are, as well as their negative effects on Palestinian civilians, to convince the reader that the terrible consequences of IDF actions are justified. That premise does not necessitate a hatred of Palestinians. Your rhetorical approach, on the other hand, seems to be rooted in discrediting the idea of Israeli self-defense as a priority by attacking the character of Israelis/Israel, by bringing evidence that indicates they are bad actors undeserving of support due to their malicious intent to ethnically cleanse the Palestinians. Ergo, based on rhetorical strategies used it’s much more likely that you harbor hatred of Israelis than Cerebrate harbors hatred of Palestinians.

That being said, I honestly don’t think either of you hate a particular group of people like that, but I just wanted to help moderate the discussion a bit.
Hakuna Matata B*tches
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
February 15 2024 16:53 GMT
#4325
--- Nuked ---
WombaT
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Northern Ireland24971 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-02-15 17:14:40
February 15 2024 16:56 GMT
#4326
Edit - Gigantic formatting fuckup
@Jimmy
To clarify the main thrust of my post was about MP’s posting, not Cerebrate’s, and responses to said posting.

I added a little addendum at the end to say that I agree with you that Cerebrate adds a lot to the discussion.
'You'll always be the cuddly marsupial of my heart, despite the inherent flaws of your ancestry' - Squat
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12142 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-02-15 17:50:10
February 15 2024 17:28 GMT
#4327
On February 16 2024 01:48 Ryzel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 15 2024 22:57 Nebuchad wrote:
Cerebrate is obviously hateful in that he takes a situation where a group is being oppressed and destroyed by another group, and he finds quirks and justifications to explain why this is either not happening or not a big deal. My perception of the situation is that, since he's obviously smart, he knows what's happening. He just thinks it's a good thing that it's happening, but also that he shouldn't admit that he thinks that. That he can fool some people with his words speaks to his rhetorical talent, not to his heart. You wouldn't be doing what he's doing if you didn't have hatred.


I get why you’re saying this, but it’s disingenuous to say he is trying to say bad things aren’t happening and/or aren’t a big deal. While he’s debated certain specific instances, I’ve never seen him deny that tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians are dying. I've also never seen him say that tens of thousands of Palestinians dying aren’t a big deal. I DO think that there are other things he views as a bigger deal though, things that you vehemently disagree warrant the importance he places on them.

It seems to me from Cerebrate’s posting history that the foundation of his value hierarchy stems from Israeli self-defense. Most of the content he chooses to share references the pervasiveness of anti-Israeli thoughts and actions, particularly in places one would least expect, as well as debunking specific claims that portray Israel in a negative light. He’s never made a post actively attacking Palestinians (in fact his knowledge of on-the-ground prices of aid for an average Gazan indicates he cares about understanding their problems). While it’s theoretically possible he’s intentionally dog whistling in an attempt to low key spread hatred of Palestinians, that requires a level of bad faith presupposition that could just as easily (if not more so) apply to you if someone chose.

The core of your disagreement lies in your disagreement of the priority of Israeli self-defense, specifically over the lives of Palestinian civilians. Cerebrate’s rhetorical approach is to show how dangerous and insidious the bad actors (Hamas et al.) are, as well as their negative effects on Palestinian civilians, to convince the reader that the terrible consequences of IDF actions are justified. That premise does not necessitate a hatred of Palestinians. Your rhetorical approach, on the other hand, seems to be rooted in discrediting the idea of Israeli self-defense as a priority by attacking the character of Israelis/Israel, by bringing evidence that indicates they are bad actors undeserving of support due to their malicious intent to ethnically cleanse the Palestinians. Ergo, based on rhetorical strategies used it’s much more likely that you harbor hatred of Israelis than Cerebrate harbors hatred of Palestinians.

That being said, I honestly don’t think either of you hate a particular group of people like that, but I just wanted to help moderate the discussion a bit.


I think if we loop back to the original exchange that you had with him a few years ago, we see a better representation of Cerebrate's position, because it's something that he wrote to you specifically, as a friend, and not something written in the context of writing to an audience on a forum. I don't know if you'll disagree but I don't see the same kind of rhetoric in that specific post. This post is more about winning, and when you win, you get to dictate the terms on the loser. I don't see a ton of concern for what's happening to those losers, which was the Nakba, an ethnic cleansing, in this specific case. There is a ton of separation for every Israeli organization, this group is self-defense, this group is violent, this group is terrorist, but the other side is "The Arabs".

As for me, I think it's fair to say that I hate Israel in its present form. It's not the exact wording that I would use because my brain is stuck in Geoguessr so if you just say Israel I think about what the country looks like and not about its politics. My hope is that I manage to keep my hatred directed specifically at fascist political systems and at the most exemplary fascist people, figures like Danielle Weiss or Smotrich. If I ended up hating Israelis as a people, I would see that as a failure on my part. While I clearly understand how racist sentiments develop both in Israel and in Palestine given their material conditions, I must ultimately stick to the belief that it's the systems that are problematic more than the people, and if you feel I sometimes go over that line I would like to be called out for it.
No will to live, no wish to die
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-02-15 19:54:12
February 15 2024 19:49 GMT
#4328
So Egypt is building over an 8 mile fortified zone in preparation for Gazan refugees and to stop them from flooding into Egypt due to Israel's offensive.

DUBAI—Egyptian authorities, fearful that an Israeli military push further into southern Gaza will set off a flood of refugees, are building an 8-square-mile walled enclosure in the Sinai Desert near the border, according to Egyptian officials and security analysts.

For weeks, Egypt has sought to bolster security along the frontier to keep Palestinians out, deploying soldiers and armored vehicles and reinforcing fences. The massive new compound is part of contingency plans if large numbers of Gazans do manage to get in.

More than 100,000 people could be accommodated in the camp, Egyptian officials said. It is surrounded by concrete walls and far from any Egyptian settlements. Large numbers of tents, as yet unassembled, have been delivered to the site, these people said.

With Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying his army will need to fight Hamas in Rafah, a Palestinian city on the Egyptian border, Egyptian officials think a broad Israeli offensive could happen within weeks.

In the event of a major exodus of Palestinians from Gaza, Egypt would seek to limit the number of refugees to well below the capacity of the area—ideally to around 50,000 to 60,000—Egyptian officials said.

Egypt has long sought to avoid a flood of refugees from spilling over its borders, even threatening to abandon its decades-old peace treaty with Israel if that occurs as a result of its offensive against Hamas. The fact that Egypt is now urgently proceeding with contingency plans signals that Egyptian officials see a rising danger of such a scenario.

The governor of Egypt’s North Sinai region on Thursday denied initial reports of the construction of a potential refugee camp for Palestinians, saying the activity in the area was part of an effort to take an inventory of houses destroyed during Egypt’s past military campaign against Islamic State extremists in the area.

Israel pulled out of the negotiations over a potential cease-fire deal on Wednesday, heightening fears that the country will move forward with its Rafah offensive. On Thursday, CIA Director William Burns met with Netanyahu and Mossad Director David Barnea to continue talks, according to people familiar with the matter.

President Biden, U.N. officials and Palestinian leaders have also sought to avoid a mass displacement of Palestinians from Gaza, fearing that many wouldn’t be able to return. Israel has said those who leave their homes in Gaza will be allowed to come back. The concern over displacement is especially sensitive for Palestinians because of the exodus from their homes during the war at the creation of Israel in 1948.

“You cannot imagine the terror and fear in the hearts of civilians here in Rafah,” said Fatima Majdi Hamouda, a woman from Beit Lahiya in the northern Gaza Strip who like thousands of others fled to the south in the early days of the war following an Israeli evacuation notice.

“Some people are already on the Egyptian border, and if the bombing intensifies, they will go directly to Sinai. It’s the worst of decisions,” said Hamouda, who is 32 and sheltering with her family in a tent on the edge of Rafah near the Mediterranean.

If Israel does proceed with the offensive on Rafah, the military would seek to move the civilian population northward—out of the battle zone but within the Gaza Strip—a senior Israeli military official said. Israel has also assured the U.S. that it would create a safe corridor to the north, according to a former U.S. official. Israel hasn’t publicly outlined any plan for what it would do with the civilians in the area.

Palestinians who enter the enclosed area wouldn’t be allowed to leave unless they are departing for another country, Egyptian officials said, outlining contingency plans discussed within the government.

If Egypt were to begin accepting a large number of Palestinian refugees, it would tighten entry and exit restrictions on a larger area of the northern Sinai, including the regional capital of Al-Arish, Egyptian officials said.

Sinai Foundation for Human Rights, a nonprofit organization monitoring events in the region, published a report this week documenting the construction of the concrete enclosure, including photos of what it said were concrete walls more than 7 yards high.

The report cited witnesses on the ground and included a map of the rough area of the enclosure. Egyptian officials confirmed to The Wall Street Journal that the area identified by the foundation was the general location of the planned enclosure.

Though many Palestinians living in the enclave are desperate to leave for their own safety, many also oppose any mass migration to Egypt, fearing that they wouldn’t be allowed to return home. Egyptian officials have taken a hard line against Palestinian refugees but some privately concede that an exodus on some level may now be inevitable.

The fortified camp being set up by Egypt could ultimately be used in different ways, said regional officials and analysts. In one scenario, it could serve as a safety net if Palestinians rush the border. In another, Egypt could agree to accept a limited number of Palestinian refugees in return for financial or other incentives, they said.

“It’s a multipronged effort from Egypt to counter any scenario that is not according to its accepted conditions,” said Mohannad Sabry, an Egyptian security analyst and author of a book on Sinai.

The enclosure could serve as a backstop to prevent refugees from flooding over the border unabated. “Even if the Israelis push a million and a half people to spill over the border, Egypt can throw the ball back into Israel’s lap by simply limiting the movement of Palestinians further in,” he said.

Israeli military officials say that they must expand the military operation into Rafah to pursue Hamas leaders and militants who have fled there. Palestinian officials and relief groups have warned that large-scale fighting in the area could result in a humanitarian catastrophe because of the huge civilian population, which includes many thousands of people crammed into tent cities, schools and abandoned buildings in the area.

Within Gaza, 1.7 million people have fled their homes during the war, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. Israel has issued evacuation notices urging civilians to leave roughly two-thirds of the strip, according to the U.N. Israel says the evacuations are necessary to protect civilians and give the military a freer hand to fight Hamas.

Israel has been pressuring Egypt to accept a military operation in Rafah, arguing that Israeli forces have to cut off Gaza’s border with Egypt to block Hamas’s ability to smuggle weapons. Egypt has urged Israel not to carry out such an operation, saying that it has already clamped down on underground smuggling tunnels in the area.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Ryzel
Profile Joined December 2012
United States528 Posts
February 15 2024 20:04 GMT
#4329
On February 16 2024 02:28 Nebuchad wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 16 2024 01:48 Ryzel wrote:
On February 15 2024 22:57 Nebuchad wrote:
Cerebrate is obviously hateful in that he takes a situation where a group is being oppressed and destroyed by another group, and he finds quirks and justifications to explain why this is either not happening or not a big deal. My perception of the situation is that, since he's obviously smart, he knows what's happening. He just thinks it's a good thing that it's happening, but also that he shouldn't admit that he thinks that. That he can fool some people with his words speaks to his rhetorical talent, not to his heart. You wouldn't be doing what he's doing if you didn't have hatred.


I get why you’re saying this, but it’s disingenuous to say he is trying to say bad things aren’t happening and/or aren’t a big deal. While he’s debated certain specific instances, I’ve never seen him deny that tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians are dying. I've also never seen him say that tens of thousands of Palestinians dying aren’t a big deal. I DO think that there are other things he views as a bigger deal though, things that you vehemently disagree warrant the importance he places on them.

It seems to me from Cerebrate’s posting history that the foundation of his value hierarchy stems from Israeli self-defense. Most of the content he chooses to share references the pervasiveness of anti-Israeli thoughts and actions, particularly in places one would least expect, as well as debunking specific claims that portray Israel in a negative light. He’s never made a post actively attacking Palestinians (in fact his knowledge of on-the-ground prices of aid for an average Gazan indicates he cares about understanding their problems). While it’s theoretically possible he’s intentionally dog whistling in an attempt to low key spread hatred of Palestinians, that requires a level of bad faith presupposition that could just as easily (if not more so) apply to you if someone chose.

The core of your disagreement lies in your disagreement of the priority of Israeli self-defense, specifically over the lives of Palestinian civilians. Cerebrate’s rhetorical approach is to show how dangerous and insidious the bad actors (Hamas et al.) are, as well as their negative effects on Palestinian civilians, to convince the reader that the terrible consequences of IDF actions are justified. That premise does not necessitate a hatred of Palestinians. Your rhetorical approach, on the other hand, seems to be rooted in discrediting the idea of Israeli self-defense as a priority by attacking the character of Israelis/Israel, by bringing evidence that indicates they are bad actors undeserving of support due to their malicious intent to ethnically cleanse the Palestinians. Ergo, based on rhetorical strategies used it’s much more likely that you harbor hatred of Israelis than Cerebrate harbors hatred of Palestinians.

That being said, I honestly don’t think either of you hate a particular group of people like that, but I just wanted to help moderate the discussion a bit.


I think if we loop back to the original exchange that you had with him a few years ago, we see a better representation of Cerebrate's position, because it's something that he wrote to you specifically, as a friend, and not something written in the context of writing to an audience on a forum. I don't know if you'll disagree but I don't see the same kind of rhetoric in that specific post. This post is more about winning, and when you win, you get to dictate the terms on the loser. I don't see a ton of concern for what's happening to those losers, which was the Nakba, an ethnic cleansing, in this specific case. There is a ton of separation for every Israeli organization, this group is self-defense, this group is violent, this group is terrorist, but the other side is "The Arabs".

As for me, I think it's fair to say that I hate Israel in its present form. It's not the exact wording that I would use because my brain is stuck in Geoguessr so if you just say Israel I think about what the country looks like and not about its politics. My hope is that I manage to keep my hatred directed specifically at fascist political systems and at the most exemplary fascist people, figures like Danielle Weiss or Smotrich. If I ended up hating Israelis as a people, I would see that as a failure on my part. While I clearly understand how racist sentiments develop both in Israel and in Palestine given their material conditions, I must ultimately stick to the belief that it's the systems that are problematic more than the people, and if you feel I sometimes go over that line I would like to be called out for it.


I respect that. I think you’ve made it pretty clear your issues are with the systems more than the ethnic group. It’s been a while since I’ve reviewed that conversation but I’ll take another look.
Hakuna Matata B*tches
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-02-15 21:42:40
February 15 2024 21:40 GMT
#4330
So the IDF have entered Nasser Hospital. No pics of any hostages as of yet.

"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Cerebrate1
Profile Joined October 2023
265 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-02-16 03:21:11
February 16 2024 03:16 GMT
#4331
On February 15 2024 22:57 Nebuchad wrote:
Cerebrate is obviously hateful in that he takes a situation where a group is being oppressed and destroyed by another group, and he finds quirks and justifications to explain why this is either not happening or not a big deal. My perception of the situation is that, since he's obviously smart, he knows what's happening. He just thinks it's a good thing that it's happening, but also that he shouldn't admit that he thinks that. That he can fool some people with his words speaks to his rhetorical talent, not to his heart. You wouldn't be doing what he's doing if you didn't have hatred.

Your presumptions that lead you to this conclusion are:

1. Your understanding of the conflict is accurate. (This is fair. Most people assume their own stance to be true, at least until encountering evidence to the contrary. I have actually brought a lot of evidence to the contrary that you haven't disputed, but you could still weigh your own points more heavily than mine in moral relevance [as Ryzel summarized] if you'd like.)

2. No rational person could possibly see this conflict differently than you. (This is a baffling assumption to make about a conflict that is so clearly divisive the world over. You really think that all nations and individuals who support Israel are hateful and intentionally deceptive about their beliefs? It seems to me that there is a bit of hubris in believing that no intelligent person could legitimately disagree with you on a topic as complex as this.)
Salazarz
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Korea (South)2591 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-02-16 04:52:20
February 16 2024 04:52 GMT
#4332
Don't have time these days to participate in this fascinating discussion actively, but it's hilarious that Jimmi 'you are an antisemitic Hamas supporter!!!' C of all the people is accusing others of 'misrepresenting' someone's position.

User was warned for this post
Cerebrate1
Profile Joined October 2023
265 Posts
February 16 2024 05:36 GMT
#4333
On February 15 2024 09:59 FriedrichNietzsche wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 15 2024 09:00 Cerebrate1 wrote:
On February 15 2024 08:35 Magic Powers wrote:
On February 15 2024 08:05 Cerebrate1 wrote:
On February 14 2024 23:38 Magic Powers wrote:
"Hassouna, displaced from northern Gaza, said his relatives were killed at least 4 km (2 miles) from the military operation."

"People in Rafah said two mosques and several residential buildings were hit in more than an hour of strikes, which also ripped through tents where people had taken shelter."

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-strikes-rafah-refugee-camp-22-killed-local-health-officials-say-2024-02-12/

Move south they said. You'll be safe in the South they said.

I don't think anyone ever said Rafah would be some sort of permanent war free zone. The IDF just encouraged civilians to evacuate the areas they were planning to engage Hamas in in the North.

Once no countries accepted Gazan refugees to areas entirely outside of Hamas control, it was basically inevitable (short of a Hamas surrender) that the IDF would eventually move South and have to ask Gazans to evacuate a second time.


Just move a million people south, then move a million people north. In the middle of war. Everything's so easy from the pro-Israel perspective. Let me tell the civilians who just got blasted to death that they all have the wrong idea about this.

Oh, I never said it was easy or pleasant. War is hell and should never be entered into lightly. Reasonable alternatives are almost always preferable if they are available.

I'm sure the IDF was hoping for a better alternative to arise by the time they got to this juncture instead of a second mass evacuation as well. But negotiations aren't going well and it seems like Hamas leadership and the hostages have been moved south to Rafah.


Cerebrate give me a quick number: what % does "the hostage" situation acccount for what is happening in the last months/weeks.

I am curious.

It's hard for me to give these things simple percentages.

It seems like Yahya Sinwar (mastermind of Oct 7) was intending to goad Israel into retaliating with his Oct 7 attack. Part of that plan involved capturing hostages, since no nation would be able to ignore so many of it's citizens in continuing danger. Oct 7 ended up being a lot more "successful" than even he anticipated (largely due to the unexpected party that day with hundreds of unarmed civilians just chilling in the open). The result being, Oct 7 was so terrible, Israel would have responded even if Hamas hadn't taken any hostages.

Therefore, I think preventing another Oct 7 became an even larger factor motivating Israel (which you can see from the war goal of "remove Hamas as the governing body of Gaza" rather than just "free all the hostages".) The hostages still play a role in the urgency of the situation (you can wait a while to remove Hamas, but every day the hostages are held is bad news bears for them.) The hostages also make Israel willing to negotiate a lot more then they would otherwise bother to do.
Cerebrate1
Profile Joined October 2023
265 Posts
February 16 2024 07:06 GMT
#4334
On February 16 2024 02:28 Nebuchad wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 16 2024 01:48 Ryzel wrote:
On February 15 2024 22:57 Nebuchad wrote:
Cerebrate is obviously hateful in that he takes a situation where a group is being oppressed and destroyed by another group, and he finds quirks and justifications to explain why this is either not happening or not a big deal. My perception of the situation is that, since he's obviously smart, he knows what's happening. He just thinks it's a good thing that it's happening, but also that he shouldn't admit that he thinks that. That he can fool some people with his words speaks to his rhetorical talent, not to his heart. You wouldn't be doing what he's doing if you didn't have hatred.


I get why you’re saying this, but it’s disingenuous to say he is trying to say bad things aren’t happening and/or aren’t a big deal. While he’s debated certain specific instances, I’ve never seen him deny that tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians are dying. I've also never seen him say that tens of thousands of Palestinians dying aren’t a big deal. I DO think that there are other things he views as a bigger deal though, things that you vehemently disagree warrant the importance he places on them.

It seems to me from Cerebrate’s posting history that the foundation of his value hierarchy stems from Israeli self-defense. Most of the content he chooses to share references the pervasiveness of anti-Israeli thoughts and actions, particularly in places one would least expect, as well as debunking specific claims that portray Israel in a negative light. He’s never made a post actively attacking Palestinians (in fact his knowledge of on-the-ground prices of aid for an average Gazan indicates he cares about understanding their problems). While it’s theoretically possible he’s intentionally dog whistling in an attempt to low key spread hatred of Palestinians, that requires a level of bad faith presupposition that could just as easily (if not more so) apply to you if someone chose.

The core of your disagreement lies in your disagreement of the priority of Israeli self-defense, specifically over the lives of Palestinian civilians. Cerebrate’s rhetorical approach is to show how dangerous and insidious the bad actors (Hamas et al.) are, as well as their negative effects on Palestinian civilians, to convince the reader that the terrible consequences of IDF actions are justified. That premise does not necessitate a hatred of Palestinians. Your rhetorical approach, on the other hand, seems to be rooted in discrediting the idea of Israeli self-defense as a priority by attacking the character of Israelis/Israel, by bringing evidence that indicates they are bad actors undeserving of support due to their malicious intent to ethnically cleanse the Palestinians. Ergo, based on rhetorical strategies used it’s much more likely that you harbor hatred of Israelis than Cerebrate harbors hatred of Palestinians.

That being said, I honestly don’t think either of you hate a particular group of people like that, but I just wanted to help moderate the discussion a bit.

I think if we loop back to the original exchange that you had with him a few years ago, we see a better representation of Cerebrate's position, because it's something that he wrote to you specifically, as a friend, and not something written in the context of writing to an audience on a forum. I don't know if you'll disagree but I don't see the same kind of rhetoric in that specific post. This post is more about winning, and when you win, you get to dictate the terms on the loser. I don't see a ton of concern for what's happening to those losers, which was the Nakba, an ethnic cleansing, in this specific case. There is a ton of separation for every Israeli organization, this group is self-defense, this group is violent, this group is terrorist, but the other side is "The Arabs".

Without getting into all the specifics of that rather lengthy post you are referring to, it was regarding the 1948 war. The war where Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia all attacked Israel. It would be dishonest to frame that as a conflict between only Israelis and Palestinians (which local Arabs didn't even identify themselves as yet), instead of the 1948 Arab-Israeli War (as most historians call it). The group literally called itself the Arab League.

The balance of power was also heavily against Israel at that point (even the US and UK were part of an arms embargo against Israel. It's pretty perplexing that they won at all.) It would have been suicide for Israel to cede the little ground they won to the groups who would attack again in under a decade.

Do I feel bad for those individuals who were displaced? For sure. Was that a necessary part of a post that was countering certain specific claims? Not really. If anyone wanted to clarify my stance on tangentially related points like that, they could ask to clarify. Instead of judging me unfavorably and filling in the gaps (or worse, ignoring clarifications when they are made.)
ChristianS
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States3187 Posts
February 16 2024 14:10 GMT
#4335
“Local Arabs didn’t even call themselves [Palestinians] yet?” Is that… true? The region had been called “Palestine” for nearly a couple thousand years, hadn’t it?
"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity." -Robert J. Hanlon
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-02-16 14:34:26
February 16 2024 14:25 GMT
#4336
--- Nuked ---
WombaT
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Northern Ireland24971 Posts
February 16 2024 14:33 GMT
#4337
On February 16 2024 12:16 Cerebrate1 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 15 2024 22:57 Nebuchad wrote:
Cerebrate is obviously hateful in that he takes a situation where a group is being oppressed and destroyed by another group, and he finds quirks and justifications to explain why this is either not happening or not a big deal. My perception of the situation is that, since he's obviously smart, he knows what's happening. He just thinks it's a good thing that it's happening, but also that he shouldn't admit that he thinks that. That he can fool some people with his words speaks to his rhetorical talent, not to his heart. You wouldn't be doing what he's doing if you didn't have hatred.

Your presumptions that lead you to this conclusion are:

1. Your understanding of the conflict is accurate. (This is fair. Most people assume their own stance to be true, at least until encountering evidence to the contrary. I have actually brought a lot of evidence to the contrary that you haven't disputed, but you could still weigh your own points more heavily than mine in moral relevance [as Ryzel summarized] if you'd like.)

2. No rational person could possibly see this conflict differently than you. (This is a baffling assumption to make about a conflict that is so clearly divisive the world over. You really think that all nations and individuals who support Israel are hateful and [b]intentionally deceptive about their beliefs? [\b] It seems to me that there is a bit of hubris in believing that no intelligent person could legitimately disagree with you on a topic as complex as this.)

Intentionally is for me, the operative word here.

I hate, hate the term because it’s super missused and overused but it seems to me a pretty clear case of cognitive dissonance in motion. Except rather than ascribe positions to that, the temptation can be to assume seemingly contradictory positions given stated values come down to intentional deception on the latter.

This isn’t to say that we shouldn’t aspire to punch through that barrier and do better, but we all are ultimately human so there are certain limitations given how we’re wired.

It certainly goes both ways in this conflict too, I just think perhaps it’s important to factor in these clashes, rather than aspire to 100% logical consistency here, given that humans just aren’t 100% logical. There’s too much overlap from value systems that conflict here.

Of course there is the danger of over-correction, but as a ‘rule of thumb’ it’s probably more productive to assume a good faith, but fundamentally flawed perspective than a bad faith, disingenuous one.

And by fundamentally flawed I don’t mean folks don’t construct logically sound positions, but the fundamental limitations of how humans function.

The dissonance part is so named for a reason. It’s not comfortable, it’s not an effect most of us actually want to experience. But it almost becomes unavoidable in particularly complex scenarios.

Logically speaking, not being critical just going down to brass tacks, most of us are rather against people being killed. Some more than others sure, like avowed arch pacifists. One can back someone into a corner and go ‘when it comes down to it you ultimately, if even reluctantly are OK with it given certain scenarios’ and try to force that admission. You may well succeed, but ultimately it’s not a corner that person finds a comfortable dwelling in the first place.

Equally I think it’s a fair charge that other folks including myself have plenty of blind spots too, absolutely the case.

Man this went a bit more rambling and unstructured than I’d initially planned but hope it makes at least some sense
'You'll always be the cuddly marsupial of my heart, despite the inherent flaws of your ancestry' - Squat
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12142 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-02-16 14:51:18
February 16 2024 14:44 GMT
#4338
So, obviously many many people who support Israel have a very distant view of what the conflict looks like and aren't intentionally deceptive about their beliefs, they just don't know any better because they are uninformed, or misinformed. Once you know the facts, in terms of morality everything is extremely simple. The very notion that it's complex and that people disagree because of the moral complexity of what's happening is already cringe.

Also Shaun's video on Palestine is out on Patreon, I'll post it here as soon as it's public. I usually don't know as much about the topics that he covers so this time I didn't learn as much as usual. I didn't know that in the 1980s Biden was so pro-Israel murdering civilians that Reagan and the Israeli prime minister of that time had to distance themselves from him, that's one thing I learned. Still the skull man is good, and it's good to have a cohesive 1h30' piece about this, I'm glad it exists.
No will to live, no wish to die
mcxds
Profile Joined September 2018
Germany19 Posts
February 16 2024 14:54 GMT
#4339
On February 16 2024 23:10 ChristianS wrote:
“Local Arabs didn’t even call themselves [Palestinians] yet?” Is that… true? The region had been called “Palestine” for nearly a couple thousand years, hadn’t it?

Cerebrate1 has talked about this in Post #3928 in this Thread.
ChristianS
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States3187 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-02-16 15:11:30
February 16 2024 14:56 GMT
#4340
On February 16 2024 23:25 JimmiC wrote:
Ya, it was initially Greek, then the Roman’s brought it back when they took over, then it stopped again until the ottomans lost control and Brits brought it back.

I could be wrong but I’m not sure if Palestinians have really ever had self determination, basically just taken over by different over and over. Even right now it’s a battle between Israel and Iran for control. When Isreal won the war it was part of Jordan and Syria, not even one country, they have a pretty terrible history.

I mean, skimming through this Wikipedia page it looks like “Palestinian” is an ethnic identity and nationalist movement that first started bubbling up in the 19th century but became particularly pronounced following WW1. Ya know, the same timeline a huge number of ethnic identities and nationalist movements in Europe followed. In fact, wasn’t Zionism on a pretty similar timeline?

If that’s accurate, Cerebrate saying people didn’t identify as Palestinian in 1948 is wrong. But more than that, it seems motivated by a desire to imply Palestinian is not a “real” identity (much the same way Russia likes to do with Ukrainians). I mean, I agree that Cerebrate is a respectful and thorough poster and I’m glad he’s here, but that seems worth calling out, no?

Edit:
On February 16 2024 23:54 mcxds wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 16 2024 23:10 ChristianS wrote:
“Local Arabs didn’t even call themselves [Palestinians] yet?” Is that… true? The region had been called “Palestine” for nearly a couple thousand years, hadn’t it?

Cerebrate1 has talked about this in Post #3928 in this Thread.

Yeah okay, I went and read that one too. TL;DR is basically “Palestine was just a name used by Roman or British conquerors, the local people never thought they were anything but Arabs.” So yes, quite explicitly pushing the “not a real identity” angle.

I mean, I’m not particularly well-versed on the history of Palestinian nationalism but even a quick googling reveals stuff like a series of Palestinian Arab Congresses held following WW1 trying to decide what “Palestinian” means and advocate for political autonomy. That’s exactly the kind of thing Germans or Italians or Hungarians were up to in the 19th and early 20th centuries as nationalism became the organizing principle of the world. Seems like it’s as “real” an ethnic identity as any other to me!
"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity." -Robert J. Hanlon
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