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On November 07 2020 14:49 ShoCkeyy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2020 14:44 JimmiC wrote:
Kind of a random thought. But might have Biden lost the Cuban vote so bad not because they thought he was a socialist but because he was part of the admin who eased relations with Castro?
Has anyone read about anyone going and asking them? As a Cuban, it’s literally around socialism/communism. Most of them don’t understand anything other than a dictatorship. Their dictatorship used “socialism” as a way to gain power. Republicans labeled democrats socialist.
Do you think Trump's reversal of Obama's détente with Cuba also had any effect on gaining the Cuban vote?
Hillary seemed to have done decently with the Cuban vote iirc, so I'm not sure if any of that diplomacy would've factored in anyways.
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On November 07 2020 15:28 eviltomahawk wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2020 14:49 ShoCkeyy wrote:On November 07 2020 14:44 JimmiC wrote:
Kind of a random thought. But might have Biden lost the Cuban vote so bad not because they thought he was a socialist but because he was part of the admin who eased relations with Castro?
Has anyone read about anyone going and asking them? As a Cuban, it’s literally around socialism/communism. Most of them don’t understand anything other than a dictatorship. Their dictatorship used “socialism” as a way to gain power. Republicans labeled democrats socialist. Do you think Trump's reversal of Obama's détente with Cuba also had any effect on gaining the Cuban vote? Hillary seemed to have done decently with the Cuban vote iirc, so I'm not sure if any of that diplomacy would've factored in anyways.
Hillary did well with not only the cuban vote but the whole Hispanic block on general. BIden was so much weaker then her with that group. We would be looking at a 400+ biden win had he had anything close to her numbers. DOnt know why she was so much stronger with hispanics then biden though.
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On November 07 2020 15:28 eviltomahawk wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2020 14:49 ShoCkeyy wrote:On November 07 2020 14:44 JimmiC wrote:
Kind of a random thought. But might have Biden lost the Cuban vote so bad not because they thought he was a socialist but because he was part of the admin who eased relations with Castro?
Has anyone read about anyone going and asking them? As a Cuban, it’s literally around socialism/communism. Most of them don’t understand anything other than a dictatorship. Their dictatorship used “socialism” as a way to gain power. Republicans labeled democrats socialist. Do you think Trump's reversal of Obama's détente with Cuba also had any effect on gaining the Cuban vote? Hillary seemed to have done decently with the Cuban vote iirc, so I'm not sure if any of that diplomacy would've factored in anyways.
Barely, Miami stayed blue, what Trump has done with Cuba actually hurt the people of Cuba a lot, but Covid has also hurt Cuba. There’s a food shortage on top of Covid.
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On November 07 2020 15:32 ShoCkeyy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2020 15:28 eviltomahawk wrote:On November 07 2020 14:49 ShoCkeyy wrote:On November 07 2020 14:44 JimmiC wrote:
Kind of a random thought. But might have Biden lost the Cuban vote so bad not because they thought he was a socialist but because he was part of the admin who eased relations with Castro?
Has anyone read about anyone going and asking them? As a Cuban, it’s literally around socialism/communism. Most of them don’t understand anything other than a dictatorship. Their dictatorship used “socialism” as a way to gain power. Republicans labeled democrats socialist. Do you think Trump's reversal of Obama's détente with Cuba also had any effect on gaining the Cuban vote? Hillary seemed to have done decently with the Cuban vote iirc, so I'm not sure if any of that diplomacy would've factored in anyways. Barely, Miami stayed blue, what Trump has done with Cuba actually hurt the people of Cuba a lot, but Covid has also hurt Cuba. There’s a food shortage on top of Covid.
As far as I understand, Cubans living in the US don't care much for Cubans in Cuba, but just the opposite.
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On November 07 2020 16:06 food wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2020 15:32 ShoCkeyy wrote:On November 07 2020 15:28 eviltomahawk wrote:On November 07 2020 14:49 ShoCkeyy wrote:On November 07 2020 14:44 JimmiC wrote:
Kind of a random thought. But might have Biden lost the Cuban vote so bad not because they thought he was a socialist but because he was part of the admin who eased relations with Castro?
Has anyone read about anyone going and asking them? As a Cuban, it’s literally around socialism/communism. Most of them don’t understand anything other than a dictatorship. Their dictatorship used “socialism” as a way to gain power. Republicans labeled democrats socialist. Do you think Trump's reversal of Obama's détente with Cuba also had any effect on gaining the Cuban vote? Hillary seemed to have done decently with the Cuban vote iirc, so I'm not sure if any of that diplomacy would've factored in anyways. Barely, Miami stayed blue, what Trump has done with Cuba actually hurt the people of Cuba a lot, but Covid has also hurt Cuba. There’s a food shortage on top of Covid. As far as I understand, Cubans living in the US don't care much for Cubans in Cuba, but just the opposite.
American Cubans are a great example of why “Hispanics” are not a remotely homogenous group.
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On November 07 2020 16:06 food wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2020 15:32 ShoCkeyy wrote:On November 07 2020 15:28 eviltomahawk wrote:On November 07 2020 14:49 ShoCkeyy wrote:On November 07 2020 14:44 JimmiC wrote:
Kind of a random thought. But might have Biden lost the Cuban vote so bad not because they thought he was a socialist but because he was part of the admin who eased relations with Castro?
Has anyone read about anyone going and asking them? As a Cuban, it’s literally around socialism/communism. Most of them don’t understand anything other than a dictatorship. Their dictatorship used “socialism” as a way to gain power. Republicans labeled democrats socialist. Do you think Trump's reversal of Obama's détente with Cuba also had any effect on gaining the Cuban vote? Hillary seemed to have done decently with the Cuban vote iirc, so I'm not sure if any of that diplomacy would've factored in anyways. Barely, Miami stayed blue, what Trump has done with Cuba actually hurt the people of Cuba a lot, but Covid has also hurt Cuba. There’s a food shortage on top of Covid. As far as I understand, Cubans living in the US don't care much for Cubans in Cuba, but just the opposite.
That seems very weird. They would all have family back in their previous country and many would return if the situation is right, which has happened elsewhere.
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On November 07 2020 17:22 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2020 16:06 food wrote:On November 07 2020 15:32 ShoCkeyy wrote:On November 07 2020 15:28 eviltomahawk wrote:On November 07 2020 14:49 ShoCkeyy wrote:On November 07 2020 14:44 JimmiC wrote:
Kind of a random thought. But might have Biden lost the Cuban vote so bad not because they thought he was a socialist but because he was part of the admin who eased relations with Castro?
Has anyone read about anyone going and asking them? As a Cuban, it’s literally around socialism/communism. Most of them don’t understand anything other than a dictatorship. Their dictatorship used “socialism” as a way to gain power. Republicans labeled democrats socialist. Do you think Trump's reversal of Obama's détente with Cuba also had any effect on gaining the Cuban vote? Hillary seemed to have done decently with the Cuban vote iirc, so I'm not sure if any of that diplomacy would've factored in anyways. Barely, Miami stayed blue, what Trump has done with Cuba actually hurt the people of Cuba a lot, but Covid has also hurt Cuba. There’s a food shortage on top of Covid. As far as I understand, Cubans living in the US don't care much for Cubans in Cuba, but just the opposite. That seems very weird. They would all have family back in their previous country and many would return if the situation is right, which has happened elsewhere.
I think many were refugees that fled the country after Castro won the Cuban Revolution, so they're more resentful against the current Cuban regime and socialism in general.
One can find a similar situation with the Vietnamese community in the US, where many of the first-generation immigrants are hardcore Republicans due to being refugees after the collapse of South Vietnam to the communist north.
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On November 07 2020 17:22 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2020 16:06 food wrote:On November 07 2020 15:32 ShoCkeyy wrote:On November 07 2020 15:28 eviltomahawk wrote:On November 07 2020 14:49 ShoCkeyy wrote:On November 07 2020 14:44 JimmiC wrote:
Kind of a random thought. But might have Biden lost the Cuban vote so bad not because they thought he was a socialist but because he was part of the admin who eased relations with Castro?
Has anyone read about anyone going and asking them? As a Cuban, it’s literally around socialism/communism. Most of them don’t understand anything other than a dictatorship. Their dictatorship used “socialism” as a way to gain power. Republicans labeled democrats socialist. Do you think Trump's reversal of Obama's détente with Cuba also had any effect on gaining the Cuban vote? Hillary seemed to have done decently with the Cuban vote iirc, so I'm not sure if any of that diplomacy would've factored in anyways. Barely, Miami stayed blue, what Trump has done with Cuba actually hurt the people of Cuba a lot, but Covid has also hurt Cuba. There’s a food shortage on top of Covid. As far as I understand, Cubans living in the US don't care much for Cubans in Cuba, but just the opposite. That seems very weird. They would all have family back in their previous country and many would return if the situation is right, which has happened elsewhere.
Ye, as mentioned it's just anticommunism. They got super pissed when Obama normalized relations with Cuba even though that's great for everyone because their hatred for the castrist regime kinds of trumps (pun non intended) anything.
It's a bit sad, but I guess it's really hard to judge.
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On November 07 2020 15:22 Shingi11 wrote:
So i think it funny that if you compare the two stronghold for its party it tells a much different story. Biden is going to win CA by 4-5 mil votes about 30%. Trump won texas by 600k about 6%. IT the past 3 election it goes down every time. 15%, then 9% now 6%. THe dems just need to find a candidate that work for texas. While the current GOP is never going to threaten cali.
Texas isn't even in the top 10 red states, it's not really the stronghold people think it is.
That said, flipping it makes elections nearly unwinnable for Republicans, so your primary point still stands.
The true impetus for political change in America is simple demographic shifts.
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On November 07 2020 17:59 Russano wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2020 15:22 Shingi11 wrote:
So i think it funny that if you compare the two stronghold for its party it tells a much different story. Biden is going to win CA by 4-5 mil votes about 30%. Trump won texas by 600k about 6%. IT the past 3 election it goes down every time. 15%, then 9% now 6%. THe dems just need to find a candidate that work for texas. While the current GOP is never going to threaten cali. Texas isn't even in the top 10 red states, it's not really the stronghold people think it is. That said, flipping it makes elections nearly unwinnable for Republicans, so your primary point still stands. The true impetus for political change in America is simple demographic shifts.
Maybe but while it's easy to extrapolate how demographics will change it's kind of hard to predict whether or not a given demographic will keep voting the same way in the future. The shift in latino vote in Texas this election could be a one off or maybe, as latinos grow more dominant in the demographics, their voting pattern also changes.
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On November 07 2020 18:04 Biff The Understudy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2020 17:59 Russano wrote:On November 07 2020 15:22 Shingi11 wrote:
So i think it funny that if you compare the two stronghold for its party it tells a much different story. Biden is going to win CA by 4-5 mil votes about 30%. Trump won texas by 600k about 6%. IT the past 3 election it goes down every time. 15%, then 9% now 6%. THe dems just need to find a candidate that work for texas. While the current GOP is never going to threaten cali. Texas isn't even in the top 10 red states, it's not really the stronghold people think it is. That said, flipping it makes elections nearly unwinnable for Republicans, so your primary point still stands. The true impetus for political change in America is simple demographic shifts. Maybe but while it's easy to extrapolate how demographics will change it's kind of hard to predict whether or not a given demographic will keep voting the same way in the future. The shift in latino vote in Texas this election could be a one off or maybe, as latinos grow more dominant in the demographics, their voting pattern also changes.
In addition to that, usually there is this wrong assumption that generations will stick to their voting behaviour.
You hear so often that once those old conservatives are gone and new young lefties can vote it will be an easy game... But its just that it is in the nature of things that the older people grow the more conservative they get, completely denying this "They just have to die out" argument.
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Biden made some small gains with a dump from Fulton. He's now up 7k in Georgia, putting him a bit out of recount range and short of some crazy absentee numbers, should win Georgia now.
Stacey Abrams deserves a ton of credit for the work she has done.
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On November 07 2020 18:14 Amui wrote:
Biden made some small gains with a dump from Fulton. He's now up 7k in Georgia, putting him a bit out of recount range and short of some crazy absentee numbers, should win Georgia now.
Stacey Abrams deserves a ton of credit for the work she has done.
Is there an official recount range percent for each state? Like, if the candidates are within 2% or 1% or 0.5% of the final vote count for any state, a recount is allowed to happen without any other precedent or evidence of tampering, because honest clerical error could actually sway the decision for the state? Or can any state be recounted for essentially no reason, regardless of the margin of victory?
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On November 07 2020 18:22 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2020 18:14 Amui wrote:
Biden made some small gains with a dump from Fulton. He's now up 7k in Georgia, putting him a bit out of recount range and short of some crazy absentee numbers, should win Georgia now.
Stacey Abrams deserves a ton of credit for the work she has done. Is there an official recount range percent for each state? Like, if the candidates are within 2% or 1% or 0.5% of the final vote count for any state, a recount is allowed to happen without any other precedent or evidence of tampering, because honest clerical error could actually sway the decision for the state? Or can any state be recounted for essentially no reason, regardless of the margin of victory?
IIRC it varies by state on the exact conditions for a recount. The recount comment was more directed at the fact that no more than a few hundred ballots would be expected to change after a recount barring some shenanigans.
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On November 07 2020 18:13 mahrgell wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2020 18:04 Biff The Understudy wrote:On November 07 2020 17:59 Russano wrote:On November 07 2020 15:22 Shingi11 wrote:
So i think it funny that if you compare the two stronghold for its party it tells a much different story. Biden is going to win CA by 4-5 mil votes about 30%. Trump won texas by 600k about 6%. IT the past 3 election it goes down every time. 15%, then 9% now 6%. THe dems just need to find a candidate that work for texas. While the current GOP is never going to threaten cali. Texas isn't even in the top 10 red states, it's not really the stronghold people think it is. That said, flipping it makes elections nearly unwinnable for Republicans, so your primary point still stands. The true impetus for political change in America is simple demographic shifts. Maybe but while it's easy to extrapolate how demographics will change it's kind of hard to predict whether or not a given demographic will keep voting the same way in the future. The shift in latino vote in Texas this election could be a one off or maybe, as latinos grow more dominant in the demographics, their voting pattern also changes. In addition to that, usually there is this wrong assumption that generations will stick to their voting behaviour. You hear so often that once those old conservatives are gone and new young lefties can vote it will be an easy game... But its just that it is in the nature of things that the older people grow the more conservative they get, completely denying this "They just have to die out" argument.
I think, at least as far as what's been studied in the US, this shares something in common with a lot of "common sense" wisdom: it's close to being nonsense. People's political opinions at 30-40 seem to be a pretty decent barometer for their political opinions for the rest of their lives (at least as good as any other).
Pew has a nice write-up discussing how generations of Americans have tended to vote:
The politics of American generations: How age affects attitudes and voting behavior
One of a handful of key quotes from the piece
On an individual level, of course, many people’s political views evolve over the course of their lives. But academic research indicates not only that generations have distinct political identities, but that most people’s basic outlooks and orientations are set fairly early on in life.
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Cnn has 2 nice headlines following eachother.
1:Why cnn hasnt called the election yet.
Followed by
2:Massive ratings and traffic show no one's turning away from election.
Off course they want to be sure and it probably is indeed still premature but this is kinda funny to see lol.
It should get called today right,like maybe 12-16 hours from now. Or would it take till tomorrow?
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North Carolina and Nevada look ready to be called. Probably Alaska too since it should be a "safe" state. All three of AZ, PA, and GA have such a slim margin that it'd be a bit activist to say that those elections are closed.
I do know that a lot of people would like it to be called so that Biden "officially" wins the race.
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On November 07 2020 17:59 Russano wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2020 15:22 Shingi11 wrote:
So i think it funny that if you compare the two stronghold for its party it tells a much different story. Biden is going to win CA by 4-5 mil votes about 30%. Trump won texas by 600k about 6%. IT the past 3 election it goes down every time. 15%, then 9% now 6%. THe dems just need to find a candidate that work for texas. While the current GOP is never going to threaten cali. Texas isn't even in the top 10 red states, it's not really the stronghold people think it is. That said, flipping it makes elections nearly unwinnable for Republicans, so your primary point still stands. The true impetus for political change in America is simple demographic shifts.
Texas hasn't been blue since 1976: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_elections_in_Texas
I just wanted to check. Quite a long time. 
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On November 07 2020 18:33 Ciaus_Dronu wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2020 18:13 mahrgell wrote:On November 07 2020 18:04 Biff The Understudy wrote:On November 07 2020 17:59 Russano wrote:On November 07 2020 15:22 Shingi11 wrote:
So i think it funny that if you compare the two stronghold for its party it tells a much different story. Biden is going to win CA by 4-5 mil votes about 30%. Trump won texas by 600k about 6%. IT the past 3 election it goes down every time. 15%, then 9% now 6%. THe dems just need to find a candidate that work for texas. While the current GOP is never going to threaten cali. Texas isn't even in the top 10 red states, it's not really the stronghold people think it is. That said, flipping it makes elections nearly unwinnable for Republicans, so your primary point still stands. The true impetus for political change in America is simple demographic shifts. Maybe but while it's easy to extrapolate how demographics will change it's kind of hard to predict whether or not a given demographic will keep voting the same way in the future. The shift in latino vote in Texas this election could be a one off or maybe, as latinos grow more dominant in the demographics, their voting pattern also changes. In addition to that, usually there is this wrong assumption that generations will stick to their voting behaviour. You hear so often that once those old conservatives are gone and new young lefties can vote it will be an easy game... But its just that it is in the nature of things that the older people grow the more conservative they get, completely denying this "They just have to die out" argument. I think, at least as far as what's been studied in the US, this shares something in common with a lot of "common sense" wisdom: it's close to being nonsense. People's political opinions at 30-40 seem to be a pretty decent barometer for their political opinions for the rest of their lives (at least as good as any other). Pew has a nice write-up discussing how generations of Americans have tended to vote: The politics of American generations: How age affects attitudes and voting behaviorOne of a handful of key quotes from the piece Show nested quote +
On an individual level, of course, many people’s political views evolve over the course of their lives. But academic research indicates not only that generations have distinct political identities, but that most people’s basic outlooks and orientations are set fairly early on in life.
I think you are both right. People do get more conservative with age, but being conservative mean something different for each generation. Conservative in the 50's probably meant you would be horrified by an interracial kiss on television. Conservative in 50 years might mean you are still pro gay marriage, with only the most radical being against it. You can see it as society moving and "leaving behind" people of course.
I can totally believe that our core set of of ideas and values is settle early in life, but our "solutions" tend to change a lot. People do tend to get less "radical" with age as they gain more experience, learn why things are the way they are (being outraged by something until you realize there are very good reasons for it and cool down quite a bit is something that happens to everyone reflected), and maybe lose a bit of the fiery enthusiasm of the youth.
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On November 07 2020 19:43 Biff The Understudy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2020 18:33 Ciaus_Dronu wrote:On November 07 2020 18:13 mahrgell wrote:On November 07 2020 18:04 Biff The Understudy wrote:On November 07 2020 17:59 Russano wrote:On November 07 2020 15:22 Shingi11 wrote:
So i think it funny that if you compare the two stronghold for its party it tells a much different story. Biden is going to win CA by 4-5 mil votes about 30%. Trump won texas by 600k about 6%. IT the past 3 election it goes down every time. 15%, then 9% now 6%. THe dems just need to find a candidate that work for texas. While the current GOP is never going to threaten cali. Texas isn't even in the top 10 red states, it's not really the stronghold people think it is. That said, flipping it makes elections nearly unwinnable for Republicans, so your primary point still stands. The true impetus for political change in America is simple demographic shifts. Maybe but while it's easy to extrapolate how demographics will change it's kind of hard to predict whether or not a given demographic will keep voting the same way in the future. The shift in latino vote in Texas this election could be a one off or maybe, as latinos grow more dominant in the demographics, their voting pattern also changes. In addition to that, usually there is this wrong assumption that generations will stick to their voting behaviour. You hear so often that once those old conservatives are gone and new young lefties can vote it will be an easy game... But its just that it is in the nature of things that the older people grow the more conservative they get, completely denying this "They just have to die out" argument. I think, at least as far as what's been studied in the US, this shares something in common with a lot of "common sense" wisdom: it's close to being nonsense. People's political opinions at 30-40 seem to be a pretty decent barometer for their political opinions for the rest of their lives (at least as good as any other). Pew has a nice write-up discussing how generations of Americans have tended to vote: The politics of American generations: How age affects attitudes and voting behaviorOne of a handful of key quotes from the piece
On an individual level, of course, many people’s political views evolve over the course of their lives. But academic research indicates not only that generations have distinct political identities, but that most people’s basic outlooks and orientations are set fairly early on in life.
I think you are both right. People do get more conservative with age, but being conservative mean something different for each generation. Conservative in the 50's probably meant you would be horrified by an interracial kiss on television. Conservative in 50 years might mean you are still pro gay marriage, with only the most radical being against it. You can see it as society moving and "leaving behind" people of course. I can totally believe that our core set of of ideas and values is settle early in life, but our "solutions" tend to change a lot. People do tend to get less "radical" with age as they gain more experience, learn why things are the way they are (being outraged by something until you realize there are very good reasons for it and cool down quite a bit is something that happens to everyone reflected), and maybe lose a bit of the fiery enthusiasm of the youth.
A psychological factor that also plays into this is that older people show more positive bias in both memory selection and memory distortion than younger adults.
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EPT
