Coronavirus and You - Page 607

On June 15 2022 16:23 Magic Powers wrote:
No. Just because gay men have experienced a higher transmission rate doesn't mean it spreads to them more easily than to other demographics. The origin of the outbreak was mostly a group of gay men, so the concentration of monkeypox within the gay community was much greater to begin with. Furthermore gay men have a much higher rate of contact with other gay men, which skews the rate (not probability) of transmission in their direction until the virus has spread more evenly within the community. And that's what we're seeing right now. The numbers are going up so fast that it can't be explained with "oh it affects gay men more than others". It's wrong. The virus is already spreading much more evenly across the whole population.

On June 16 2022 20:56 pmh wrote:



How are the numbers going up fast?
The start of the outbreak outside africa is 3-4 weeks ago now and its still less then 3k confirmed cases worldwide.
Its very different from the start of the covid pandemic.

On June 17 2022 00:54 Magic Powers wrote:


The data from official sources shows that they're spreading at a very similar rate. Where do you get your information from?

On June 17 2022 18:35 Magic Powers wrote:


You can look at the numbers in various different ways, you selected one of the ways that makes it look as if covid-19 spread a lot faster during its outbreak. If you look at the whole table and compare it in detail side by side, then the difference becomes much less obvious.

For covid-19, in Germany and the US (just two out of 20+ examples) it took the whole month of February for cases to go from 7 to 57 or from 7 to 62. Germany for example stalled at 16 cases for a total of fifteen days before finally the numbers started to increase dramatically.
Meanwhile South Korea and Italy took off much earlier calendar-wise, with SK initially going from 12 cases to 31 cases over eighteen days and then suddenly exploding with 51 cases the next day and reaching 3150 cases only ten days later (while Germany and the US were only at ~60); meanwhile Italy had stalled for incredible twenty-one days going from 2 cases to 3 cases, and then two days later suddenly exploding with 76 cases and reaching 888 cases another six days later.

By the end of February SK and Italy alone accounted for a whopping 76% of all cases outside of China, being rare exceptions that drove up the numbers much faster than any other country.
Belgium was another extreme case starting with 2 cases and very rapidly going to 388 cases only nine days later, making up for another 7% of total cases outside of China.

Most countries however were initially at a much slower pace than these three exceptions (SK, Italy, Belgium). About twenty countries in the first half of February and an additional seventeen or so in the second half showed a spread that is much more similar and even slower than what we're seeing with monkeypox.

It's not as simple as just looking at one section of both tables and declaring how similar exactly they are, which is why my estimate is an up to 50% slower spread for monkeypox, because with all the possible variance to be considered it's impossible to provide a much more precise estimate.

Here you can see the covid-19 tables I used for the above numbers. Note how SK and Italy alone completely distort the overall picture.



Numbers taken from this link.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_cases_in_February_2020

You can look at the numbers in various different ways, you selected one of the ways that makes it look as if covid-19 spread a lot faster during its outbreak. If you look at the whole table and compare it in detail side by side, then the difference becomes much less obvious.

China bank protest stopped by health codes turning red, depositors say

SHANGHAI, June 16 (Reuters) - A protest planned by hundreds of bank depositors in central China seeking access to their frozen funds has been thwarted because the authorities have turned their health code apps red, several depositors told Reuters.

The depositors were planning to travel to the central province of Henan this week from across China to protest against an almost two-month block on accessing at least $178 million of deposits, which has left companies unable to pay workers and individuals unable to access savings. read more

Rights groups have warned China could use its vast COVID surveillance infrastructure to stifle dissent. Without a green code on their smartphone app, citizens lose access to public transport and spaces such as restaurants and malls, as well as the right to travel across the country.

On June 18 2022 14:23 Sermokala wrote:
Advisories are not restrictions. They're bearly even advice for people who don't know what they are. The possible thing you're referring went into effect in february and didn't actually stop travel from china only made them travel from hong kong and Macau if they wanted to come to America.

We continue to require Australian citizens, permanent residents and their families who have been in mainland China from 1 February 2020, and who return Australia, to self-isolate for 14 days from the time they left mainland China.
People who have been in contact with someone confirmed to have coronavirus must also self-isolate for 14 days from the time they were in contact with that person.

On June 23 2022 15:46 Magic Powers wrote:
The WHN declares the monkeypox outbreak a pandemic.
TL;DR little action would be required to stop the spread, but that action isn't being taken. The pandemic is going to get a lot worse unless the affected countries take action quickly.

"The outbreak will not stop without concerted global action, it said."

"Even with death rates much lower than smallpox, unless actions are taken to stop the ongoing spread—actions that can be practically implemented—millions of people will die and many more will become blind and disabled, it said."

"There is no justification to wait for the monkeypox pandemic to grow further. The best time to act is now. By taking immediate action, we can control the outbreak with the least effort, and prevent consequences from becoming worse. The actions needed now only require clear public communication about symptoms, widely available testing, and contact tracing with very few quarantines. Any delay only makes the effort harder and the consequences more severe", said Yaneer Bar-Yam, PhD, President of New England Complex System Institute and co-founder of WHN.

https://www.livemint.com/news/world/world-health-network-declares-monkeypox-a-pandemic-11655951549860.html

On June 24 2022 04:34 Acrofales wrote:


What is the World Health Network? I can't find any info about them except this news that they declared the monkeypox a pandemic... so I'm not very impressed.

We need case finding, contact tracing, laboratory investigation, genome sequencing, and implementation of infection prevention and control measures;

We need information about the different clades of monkeypox virus;

We need clear case definitions to help identify and report infections;

And we need all countries to remain vigilant and strengthen their capacities to prevent onward transmission of monkeypox. It is likely that many countries will have missed opportunities to identify cases, including cases in the community without any recent travel.

WHO’s goal is to support countries to contain transmission and stop the outbreak with tried-and-tested public health tools including surveillance, contact-tracing and isolation of infected patients.