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Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. |
On June 15 2022 16:23 Magic Powers wrote:
No. Just because gay men have experienced a higher transmission rate doesn't mean it spreads to them more easily than to other demographics. The origin of the outbreak was mostly a group of gay men, so the concentration of monkeypox within the gay community was much greater to begin with. Furthermore gay men have a much higher rate of contact with other gay men, which skews the rate (not probability) of transmission in their direction until the virus has spread more evenly within the community. And that's what we're seeing right now. The numbers are going up so fast that it can't be explained with "oh it affects gay men more than others". It's wrong. The virus is already spreading much more evenly across the whole population.
How are the numbers going up fast?
The start of the outbreak outside africa is 3-4 weeks ago now and its still less then 3k confirmed cases worldwide.
Its very different from the start of the covid pandemic.
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On June 16 2022 20:56 pmh wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2022 16:23 Magic Powers wrote:
No. Just because gay men have experienced a higher transmission rate doesn't mean it spreads to them more easily than to other demographics. The origin of the outbreak was mostly a group of gay men, so the concentration of monkeypox within the gay community was much greater to begin with. Furthermore gay men have a much higher rate of contact with other gay men, which skews the rate (not probability) of transmission in their direction until the virus has spread more evenly within the community. And that's what we're seeing right now. The numbers are going up so fast that it can't be explained with "oh it affects gay men more than others". It's wrong. The virus is already spreading much more evenly across the whole population. How are the numbers going up fast? The start of the outbreak outside africa is 3-4 weeks ago now and its still less then 3k confirmed cases worldwide. Its very different from the start of the covid pandemic.
A handful of cases in a few countries have turned into thousands of cases in dozens of countries in a matter of weeks. That's very similar to the pace of the covid-19 outbreak. Downplaying it helps no one.
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On June 16 2022 20:56 pmh wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2022 16:23 Magic Powers wrote:
No. Just because gay men have experienced a higher transmission rate doesn't mean it spreads to them more easily than to other demographics. The origin of the outbreak was mostly a group of gay men, so the concentration of monkeypox within the gay community was much greater to begin with. Furthermore gay men have a much higher rate of contact with other gay men, which skews the rate (not probability) of transmission in their direction until the virus has spread more evenly within the community. And that's what we're seeing right now. The numbers are going up so fast that it can't be explained with "oh it affects gay men more than others". It's wrong. The virus is already spreading much more evenly across the whole population. How are the numbers going up fast? The start of the outbreak outside africa is 3-4 weeks ago now and its still less then 3k confirmed cases worldwide. Its very different from the start of the covid pandemic.
It’s spreading way slower than covid, plus at the time Covid had 3k cases there had actually been deaths in that total...
WHO is convening a meeting next Thursday to determine if the situation should be designated a public health emergency.
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/who-set-decide-if-monkeypox-represents-health-emergency-2022-06-14/
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On June 16 2022 23:37 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
It’s spreading way slower than covid
The data from official sources shows that they're spreading at a very similar rate. Where do you get your information from?
I'd also like to point out that the oldest generations (50+ or 60+ y/o) are more likely to have some immunity against monkeypox today than against sars-cov-2 two years ago. We can therefore perhaps expect a lower fatality rate.
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It's spreading at a reasonably quick rate, but the total infected population is relatively low.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/monkeypox-smallpox-vaccine-imvamune-1.6488917
In contrast to covid, the vaccine can be administered shortly after exposure as well as prior.
Ring vaccination is still a feasible method of control for this, for now.
This is in stark contrast to covid, where the only feasible control method was high masking, social distancing methods for the first year+.
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On June 17 2022 09:03 pmh wrote:The thing to worry about i think is the BA5 variant. https://twitter.com/rquiroga777/status/1537241967154778112/photo/1This variant together with BA4 are expected to cause a wave in more european countries in the coming weeks. BA5 seems to be a serious setback in the development of the virus when compared to previous omicron variants. Though by the looks of it still less severe then the non omicron variants before vaccination.
I wouldn't worry too much about that.
Excess death is such a stupid measurement! Especially against years with hard rules and less deaths! They basically have the same Covid-deaths (absolute) as in January/February, where the above plot says, that there was "less" excess death!
> https://www.dkriesel.com/_media/coronaplot-portugal.png
And in January Portugal (probably, don't know exact) had distance rules, maybe event locations were still closed, masks everywhere, ... now: masks in public transports and hospitals; that's it! And nothing really is happening!
Don't know why we are still fear mongering...
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You can look at the numbers in various different ways, you selected one of the ways that makes it look as if covid-19 spread a lot faster during its outbreak. If you look at the whole table and compare it in detail side by side, then the difference becomes much less obvious.
For covid-19, in Germany and the US (just two out of 20+ examples) it took the whole month of February for cases to go from 7 to 57 or from 7 to 62. Germany for example stalled at 16 cases for a total of fifteen days before finally the numbers started to increase dramatically.
Meanwhile South Korea and Italy took off much earlier calendar-wise, with SK initially going from 12 cases to 31 cases over eighteen days and then suddenly exploding with 51 cases the next day and reaching 3150 cases only ten days later (while Germany and the US were only at ~60); meanwhile Italy had stalled for incredible twenty-one days going from 2 cases to 3 cases, and then two days later suddenly exploding with 76 cases and reaching 888 cases another six days later.
By the end of February SK and Italy alone accounted for a whopping 76% of all cases outside of China, being rare exceptions that drove up the numbers much faster than any other country.
Iran (edit: corrected Belgium to Iran) was another extreme case starting with 2 cases and very rapidly going to 388 cases only nine days later, making up for another 7% of total cases outside of China.
Most countries however were initially at a much slower pace than these three exceptions (SK, Italy, Iran). About twenty countries in the first half of February and an additional seventeen or so in the second half showed a spread that is much more similar and even slower than what we're seeing with monkeypox.
It's not as simple as just looking at one section of both tables and declaring how similar exactly they are, which is why my estimate is an up to 50% slower spread for monkeypox, because with all the possible variance to be considered it's impossible to provide a much more precise estimate.
Here you can see the covid-19 tables I used for the above numbers. Note how SK and Italy alone completely distort the overall picture.
![[image loading]](https://i.gyazo.com/2464ec1a64caae851273a3424a9adb3c.png)
![[image loading]](https://i.gyazo.com/9fec7830d68c22a6c7f35e5db309766d.png)
Numbers taken from this link.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_cases_in_February_2020
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On June 17 2022 18:35 Magic Powers wrote:You can look at the numbers in various different ways, you selected one of the ways that makes it look as if covid-19 spread a lot faster during its outbreak. If you look at the whole table and compare it in detail side by side, then the difference becomes much less obvious. For covid-19, in Germany and the US (just two out of 20+ examples) it took the whole month of February for cases to go from 7 to 57 or from 7 to 62. Germany for example stalled at 16 cases for a total of fifteen days before finally the numbers started to increase dramatically. Meanwhile South Korea and Italy took off much earlier calendar-wise, with SK initially going from 12 cases to 31 cases over eighteen days and then suddenly exploding with 51 cases the next day and reaching 3150 cases only ten days later (while Germany and the US were only at ~60); meanwhile Italy had stalled for incredible twenty-one days going from 2 cases to 3 cases, and then two days later suddenly exploding with 76 cases and reaching 888 cases another six days later. By the end of February SK and Italy alone accounted for a whopping 76% of all cases outside of China, being rare exceptions that drove up the numbers much faster than any other country. Belgium was another extreme case starting with 2 cases and very rapidly going to 388 cases only nine days later, making up for another 7% of total cases outside of China. Most countries however were initially at a much slower pace than these three exceptions (SK, Italy, Belgium). About twenty countries in the first half of February and an additional seventeen or so in the second half showed a spread that is much more similar and even slower than what we're seeing with monkeypox. It's not as simple as just looking at one section of both tables and declaring how similar exactly they are, which is why my estimate is an up to 50% slower spread for monkeypox, because with all the possible variance to be considered it's impossible to provide a much more precise estimate. Here you can see the covid-19 tables I used for the above numbers. Note how SK and Italy alone completely distort the overall picture. Numbers taken from this link. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_cases_in_February_2020
Underdetection was prevalent during the initial covid outbreak , testing was very limited. This could be the case with monkeypox as well though i dont see many indications for that.
I think Italy or belgium are not the outlier when it comes to the covid outbreak but rather the benchmark for more or less uncontrolled and unmitigated spread at the start of the pandemic.
No mitigating measures have been taken against monkeypox which is another thing to consider. With covid there was contact tracing,isolation and eventually lockdowns.
I also think the very first few cases should be ignored. And instead compare it from say 100 and more cases. Though this still suffers from underdetection.
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On June 17 2022 19:02 pmh wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2022 18:35 Magic Powers wrote:You can look at the numbers in various different ways, you selected one of the ways that makes it look as if covid-19 spread a lot faster during its outbreak. If you look at the whole table and compare it in detail side by side, then the difference becomes much less obvious. For covid-19, in Germany and the US (just two out of 20+ examples) it took the whole month of February for cases to go from 7 to 57 or from 7 to 62. Germany for example stalled at 16 cases for a total of fifteen days before finally the numbers started to increase dramatically. Meanwhile South Korea and Italy took off much earlier calendar-wise, with SK initially going from 12 cases to 31 cases over eighteen days and then suddenly exploding with 51 cases the next day and reaching 3150 cases only ten days later (while Germany and the US were only at ~60); meanwhile Italy had stalled for incredible twenty-one days going from 2 cases to 3 cases, and then two days later suddenly exploding with 76 cases and reaching 888 cases another six days later. By the end of February SK and Italy alone accounted for a whopping 76% of all cases outside of China, being rare exceptions that drove up the numbers much faster than any other country. Belgium was another extreme case starting with 2 cases and very rapidly going to 388 cases only nine days later, making up for another 7% of total cases outside of China. Most countries however were initially at a much slower pace than these three exceptions (SK, Italy, Belgium). About twenty countries in the first half of February and an additional seventeen or so in the second half showed a spread that is much more similar and even slower than what we're seeing with monkeypox. It's not as simple as just looking at one section of both tables and declaring how similar exactly they are, which is why my estimate is an up to 50% slower spread for monkeypox, because with all the possible variance to be considered it's impossible to provide a much more precise estimate. Here you can see the covid-19 tables I used for the above numbers. Note how SK and Italy alone completely distort the overall picture. Numbers taken from this link. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_cases_in_February_2020 Underdetection was prevalent during the initial covid outbreak , testing was very limited. This could be the case with monkeypox as well though i dont see many indications for that. I think Italy or belgium are not the outlier when it comes to the covid outbreak but rather the benchmark for more or less uncontrolled and unmitigated spread at the start of the pandemic. No mitigating measures have been taken against monkeypox which is another thing to consider. With covid there was contact tracing,isolation and eventually lockdowns. I also think the very first few cases should be ignored. And instead compare it from say 100 and more cases. Though this still suffers from underdetection.
Right, I'd agree with all of that. It's too early to say anything definitive right now so it's better to keep an open mind to various possibilities. Interpretation of the data takes more than just comparing numbers.
PS: I incorrectly identified Belgium as the third extreme case. Edited my comment to say Iran.
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Northern Ireland26499 Posts
Thanks as ever for the breakdowns oh ye of Magic Powers
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You can look at the numbers in various different ways, you selected one of the ways that makes it look as if covid-19 spread a lot faster during its outbreak. If you look at the whole table and compare it in detail side by side, then the difference becomes much less obvious.
Sure, but way back at the beginning of covid restrictions were already put in place.Trump issued do not travel advisories to China way back in January 2020.Other countries restricted borders and travel at an early stage.None of that has really happened with Monkeypox at this time.So it’s fair to see the rise from example 1000 to 10000 cases of each to get a better view of which is spreading faster.Even without the travel restrictions and lockdowns of the early covid era Monkeypox is still spreading slower.
And not sure if this belongs here or in the other China thread but China just stopped a bank protest by switching off protestors ‘health passport’
China bank protest stopped by health codes turning red, depositors say
SHANGHAI, June 16 (Reuters) - A protest planned by hundreds of bank depositors in central China seeking access to their frozen funds has been thwarted because the authorities have turned their health code apps red, several depositors told Reuters.
The depositors were planning to travel to the central province of Henan this week from across China to protest against an almost two-month block on accessing at least $178 million of deposits, which has left companies unable to pay workers and individuals unable to access savings. read more
Rights groups have warned China could use its vast COVID surveillance infrastructure to stifle dissent. Without a green code on their smartphone app, citizens lose access to public transport and spaces such as restaurants and malls, as well as the right to travel across the country.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-bank-protest-stopped-by-health-codes-turning-red-depositors-say-2022-06-14/?taid=62ab21215272ff0001d0c306&utm_campaign=trueAnthem: Trending Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
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Advisories are not restrictions. They're bearly even advice for people who don't know what they are. The possible thing you're referring went into effect in february and didn't actually stop travel from china only made them travel from hong kong and Macau if they wanted to come to America.
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On June 18 2022 14:23 Sermokala wrote:
Advisories are not restrictions. They're bearly even advice for people who don't know what they are. The possible thing you're referring went into effect in february and didn't actually stop travel from china only made them travel from hong kong and Macau if they wanted to come to America.
They weren’t allowed in if they had been in mainland China within the previous 14 days.I guess they could have spent a couple of weeks in HK then go to the US.
Australia imposed self-isolation laws for Chinese arrivals as early as 1 Feb 2020 (A day after Trumps announcement) see
https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/media-release/continuing-travel-ban-protect-australians-coronavirus
We continue to require Australian citizens, permanent residents and their families who have been in mainland China from 1 February 2020, and who return Australia, to self-isolate for 14 days from the time they left mainland China.
People who have been in contact with someone confirmed to have coronavirus must also self-isolate for 14 days from the time they were in contact with that person.
Point is, those precautions are far more than what is being done for Monkeypox.
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The WHN declares the monkeypox outbreak a pandemic.
TL;DR little action would be required to stop the spread, but that action isn't being taken. The pandemic is going to get a lot worse unless the affected countries take action quickly.
"The outbreak will not stop without concerted global action, it said."
"Even with death rates much lower than smallpox, unless actions are taken to stop the ongoing spread—actions that can be practically implemented—millions of people will die and many more will become blind and disabled, it said."
"There is no justification to wait for the monkeypox pandemic to grow further. The best time to act is now. By taking immediate action, we can control the outbreak with the least effort, and prevent consequences from becoming worse. The actions needed now only require clear public communication about symptoms, widely available testing, and contact tracing with very few quarantines. Any delay only makes the effort harder and the consequences more severe", said Yaneer Bar-Yam, PhD, President of New England Complex System Institute and co-founder of WHN.
https://www.livemint.com/news/world/world-health-network-declares-monkeypox-a-pandemic-11655951549860.html
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On June 23 2022 15:46 Magic Powers wrote:The WHN declares the monkeypox outbreak a pandemic. TL;DR little action would be required to stop the spread, but that action isn't being taken. The pandemic is going to get a lot worse unless the affected countries take action quickly. "The outbreak will not stop without concerted global action, it said." "Even with death rates much lower than smallpox, unless actions are taken to stop the ongoing spread—actions that can be practically implemented—millions of people will die and many more will become blind and disabled, it said." "There is no justification to wait for the monkeypox pandemic to grow further. The best time to act is now. By taking immediate action, we can control the outbreak with the least effort, and prevent consequences from becoming worse. The actions needed now only require clear public communication about symptoms, widely available testing, and contact tracing with very few quarantines. Any delay only makes the effort harder and the consequences more severe", said Yaneer Bar-Yam, PhD, President of New England Complex System Institute and co-founder of WHN. https://www.livemint.com/news/world/world-health-network-declares-monkeypox-a-pandemic-11655951549860.html
What is the World Health Network? I can't find any info about them except this news that they declared the monkeypox a pandemic... so I'm not very impressed. Meanwhile I know more people who have Covid now than at any point previously in the pandemic. These new variants are going to town.
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On June 24 2022 04:34 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2022 15:46 Magic Powers wrote:The WHN declares the monkeypox outbreak a pandemic. TL;DR little action would be required to stop the spread, but that action isn't being taken. The pandemic is going to get a lot worse unless the affected countries take action quickly. "The outbreak will not stop without concerted global action, it said." "Even with death rates much lower than smallpox, unless actions are taken to stop the ongoing spread—actions that can be practically implemented—millions of people will die and many more will become blind and disabled, it said." "There is no justification to wait for the monkeypox pandemic to grow further. The best time to act is now. By taking immediate action, we can control the outbreak with the least effort, and prevent consequences from becoming worse. The actions needed now only require clear public communication about symptoms, widely available testing, and contact tracing with very few quarantines. Any delay only makes the effort harder and the consequences more severe", said Yaneer Bar-Yam, PhD, President of New England Complex System Institute and co-founder of WHN. https://www.livemint.com/news/world/world-health-network-declares-monkeypox-a-pandemic-11655951549860.html What is the World Health Network? I can't find any info about them except this news that they declared the monkeypox a pandemic... so I'm not very impressed. Meanwhile I know more people who have Covid now than at any point previously in the pandemic. These new variants are going to town.
"Our global coalition devoted to protecting health and minimizing harm to individuals and society formed as a people’s task force in response to the COVID-19 pandemic."
https://www.worldhealthnetwork.global/
This is their team:
https://covidactiongroup.net/team
Just one example: Prof. Yaneer Bar-Yam
"He has advised the Chairman’s Action Group at the Pentagon about global social unrest and the crises in Egypt and Syria, the National Security Council and the National Counter Terrorism Council on global strategy, the Chief of Naval Operations Strategic Studies Group about military force transformation, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention about delivery of prevention services and control of hospital infections, Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, Congressman Barney Frank about market regulation and the financial crisis, and other government organizations, NGOs, and corporations on using principles and insights from complex systems science."
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On June 24 2022 04:34 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2022 15:46 Magic Powers wrote:The WHN declares the monkeypox outbreak a pandemic. TL;DR little action would be required to stop the spread, but that action isn't being taken. The pandemic is going to get a lot worse unless the affected countries take action quickly. "The outbreak will not stop without concerted global action, it said." "Even with death rates much lower than smallpox, unless actions are taken to stop the ongoing spread—actions that can be practically implemented—millions of people will die and many more will become blind and disabled, it said." "There is no justification to wait for the monkeypox pandemic to grow further. The best time to act is now. By taking immediate action, we can control the outbreak with the least effort, and prevent consequences from becoming worse. The actions needed now only require clear public communication about symptoms, widely available testing, and contact tracing with very few quarantines. Any delay only makes the effort harder and the consequences more severe", said Yaneer Bar-Yam, PhD, President of New England Complex System Institute and co-founder of WHN. https://www.livemint.com/news/world/world-health-network-declares-monkeypox-a-pandemic-11655951549860.html What is the World Health Network? I can't find any info about them except this news that they declared the monkeypox a pandemic... so I'm not very impressed.
A group that nobody had heard of before yesterday.
Meanwhile the WHO opening statement from yesterday’s meeting says enough.
https://www.who.int/director-general/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-international-health-regulations-(2005)-emergency-committee-regarding-the-multi-country-monkeypox-outbreak---23-june-2022
We need case finding, contact tracing, laboratory investigation, genome sequencing, and implementation of infection prevention and control measures;
We need information about the different clades of monkeypox virus;
We need clear case definitions to help identify and report infections;
And we need all countries to remain vigilant and strengthen their capacities to prevent onward transmission of monkeypox. It is likely that many countries will have missed opportunities to identify cases, including cases in the community without any recent travel.
WHO’s goal is to support countries to contain transmission and stop the outbreak with tried-and-tested public health tools including surveillance, contact-tracing and isolation of infected patients.
Increased contact tracing and mandatory ring vaccination of close contacts seems a strong possibility.
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EPT
