EPTCoronavirus and You - Page 523
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Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control. It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you. Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly. This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here. Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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maybenexttime
Poland5585 Posts
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WombaT
Northern Ireland25506 Posts
On November 27 2021 00:36 JimmiC wrote: Don't go down the rabbit hole Stewart. It is not true, if it was the same thing would be happening in basketball players, football, hockey, track and field and so on. Its BS and the strategy is to overwhelm to the point where normal people start thinking, well if there is smoke. If you take the time to dig at each claim they are extremely stupid and based on either manipulated, made up, or out of context numbers. You do make a rather sage point there Jimmy. Still I find my default response of ‘this is bollocks’ rather ineffective. Especially as the poster boy for this claim wasn’t even bloody vaccinated, according to his club anyway. The goalposts shift with such breathtaking regularity too. I don’t recall ‘skeptics’ being receptive to me favouring extended travel restrictions to prevent the development and spread of worse variants, but now people are concerned with vaccines facilitating the very same thing? :S *Arghs internally* | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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teeel141
93 Posts
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Artisreal
Germany9235 Posts
On November 27 2021 06:39 teeel141 wrote: This aged really well https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1425086490002997248 I quote the thread sticky note: Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control. It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you. Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly. This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here. | ||
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rel
Guam3521 Posts
and sho nuff! :D | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4335 Posts
Britains Health minister said the new variant is 'The worst one yet' https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-26/africa-travel-restrictions-imposed-over-new-covid-19/100652438 Officials characterised the variant, which has double the number of mutations as the currently dominant Delta variant, as the "worst one yet". "What we do know is there's a significant number of mutations, perhaps double the number of mutations that we have seen in the Delta variant," Britain's Health Minister Sajid Javid said. "And that would suggest that it may well be more transmissible and the current vaccines that we have may well be less effective." The chairwoman of the South African Medical Association Dr Angelique Coetzee claims to have only seen mild cases from it. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/26/south-africa-b11529-covid-variant-vaccination “It’s all speculation at this stage. It may be it’s highly transmissible, but so far the cases we are seeing are extremely mild,” she said. “Maybe two weeks from now I will have a different opinion, but this is what we are seeing. So are we seriously worried? No. We are concerned and we watch what’s happening. But for now we’re saying, ‘OK: there’s a whole hype out there. [We’re] not sure why.’” | ||
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RenSC2
United States1060 Posts
On November 27 2021 14:19 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: Almost two years in and not much has changed regarding mixed messaging from the media and 'experts'. Britains Health minister said the new variant is 'The worst one yet' https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-26/africa-travel-restrictions-imposed-over-new-covid-19/100652438 The chairwoman of the South African Medical Association Dr Angelique Coetzee claims to have only seen mild cases from it. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/26/south-africa-b11529-covid-variant-vaccination Because they're talking about slightly different things just from the quotes you pulled. Dr Javid is talking about a predicted increased transmissibility and lower vaccine effectiveness due to the mutations seen in the virus... both are worrying. Dr Coetzee is saying that thus far the cases are mild. This statement does not contradict Dr. Javid at all. She does however allow for future information to change her opinion. One of the typical patterns of a virus is to mutate to become less deadly over time because deadly viruses kill their own food. Less deadly viruses maintain their food supply. Omicron may be more transmissible and more resistant to current vaccines, but also be less deadly. In that case, both doctors end up being right. It may also turn out that there is more to transmissibility and vaccine resistance than the current knowledge of virus genetics would suggest and that Dr. Javid's current understanding will turn out to be wrong. It may also turn out that omicron really is going to be absolutely terrible and Dr. Coetzee's current observations of milder cases will turn out to be wrong. This is how ongoing science works. | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4335 Posts
On November 27 2021 15:47 RenSC2 wrote: One of the typical patterns of a virus is to mutate to become less deadly over time because deadly viruses kill their own food. Less deadly viruses maintain their food supply. Omicron may be more transmissible and more resistant to current vaccines, but also be less deadly. . And if it does turn out more transmissible and less deadly, then at what point is it treated the same as the flu? Pfizer claims it can have a vaccine ready for the new variant within 100 days : https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/omicron-variant-covid-vaccine-tweaked-b1965155.html So the question is if it is vaccine resistant then what happens in the 100 days or so before this new injection is ready? With many countries already blocking travel from Africa and NY already declaring a state of emergency over it + Show Spoiler +the answer is pretty clear.More restrictions, more lockdowns, expansion of vaccine passports and mandates.Repeat every new variant, relax the rules slightly in summer only to bring in even stricter restrictions every following Autumn.I can’t see any ‘Return to normal’ on the horizon, just a slow creep into total control. | ||
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RenSC2
United States1060 Posts
On November 27 2021 17:53 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: And if it does turn out more transmissible and less deadly, then at what point is it treated the same as the flu? Pfizer claims it can have a vaccine ready for the new variant within 100 days : https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/omicron-variant-covid-vaccine-tweaked-b1965155.html So the question is if it is vaccine resistant then what happens in the 100 days or so before this new injection is ready? With many countries already blocking travel from Africa and NY already declaring a state of emergency over it + Show Spoiler +the answer is pretty clear.More restrictions, more lockdowns, expansion of vaccine passports and mandates.Repeat every new variant, relax the rules slightly in summer only to bring in even stricter restrictions every following Autumn.I can’t see any ‘Return to normal’ on the horizon, just a slow creep into total control. It will depend on how deadly and each government's tolerance for new deaths. I won't pretend to know what the tolerance levels are for each government. Omicron is a fast moving situation. Nobody wants to have another massive wave, so people are currently reacting harshly and treating the situation very seriously. If further data shows that it's not as dangerous, I would expect the new restrictions to be dropped fast. Having said that, the conspiratorial part of your post is just wrong. Governments in democracies can't gain total control through pandemic lockdowns unless you think they're going to cancel votes because of Covid. That would be unprecedented in any major democracy and would be worrying. Governments that are held accountable by their people through democracy have a huge disincentive to overreact to Covid and many have underreacted by bowing to public pressure to open up and not require vaccines. Tanking your own economy is not exactly good for your reelection chances and is only done because of a great necessity. | ||
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Amui
Canada10567 Posts
Best case Somewhat immune resistant, less transmissible, much less deadly, net effect of nothing to worry about. Nothing really changes, but it gives parts of the world some time to deal with Delta. Economy tanks a bit, people get pissed at all the restrictions for seemingly nothing which are then dropped, and life goes on. Worst. highly immune resistant, more transmissible than Delta, more lethal than Delta, so basically a super covid variant with very little of the benefits of prior immunity or vaccination. @Ren normal viruses generally mutate to be less deadly, but there's not a lot of pressure for Covid to do so because it is relatively slow, and a majority of cases are mild enough that people can and do walk around while still infectious. Most people take weeks to succumb, and have plenty of time to spread it even if they do eventually kick the bucket. | ||
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WombaT
Northern Ireland25506 Posts
It’s a pretty silly power grab as power grabs go. They don’t all live in some scary elite Covid cabal equivalent of Mohdoo IslandTM, sequestered away from the rest of society. I mean I don’t personally know any of the shadowy elite, I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest that perhaps they too like travelling, going to bars and concerts. And yes, there will be mixed messaging because different people speaking to different audiences will, incredibly, sometimes say different things. A scientist in a research capacity will address the virus in a more limited scope, what it does, what we know based on current knowledge. A scientist in an advisory capacity has to consider other factors, like weighting it against economic/social factors in terms of trying to formulate policy advice. A government minister has to implement and sell policy to the public, so yes messaging will vary based on that alone. Javid has to at least lay the ground for the possibility of lockdowns in advance, whether we go down that route or not sprinting from a state of ‘everything’s fine’ to ‘lockdown time’ would be exceedingly unpopular, and it’s not exactly a popular prospect to begin with. | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom9661 Posts
On November 27 2021 20:31 WombaT wrote: Aside from anything else, all these folks advocating for certain measures you know, also have to live under said measures. It’s a pretty silly power grab as power grabs go. They don’t all live in some scary elite Covid cabal equivalent of Mohdoo IslandTM, sequestered away from the rest of society. I mean I don’t personally know any of the shadowy elite, I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest that perhaps they too like travelling, going to bars and concerts. And yes, there will be mixed messaging because different people speaking to different audiences will, incredibly, sometimes say different things. A scientist in a research capacity will address the virus in a more limited scope, what it does, what we know based on current knowledge. A scientist in an advisory capacity has to consider other factors, like weighting it against economic/social factors in terms of trying to formulate policy advice. A government minister has to implement and sell policy to the public, so yes messaging will vary based on that alone. Javid has to at least lay the ground for the possibility of lockdowns in advance, whether we go down that route or not sprinting from a state of ‘everything’s fine’ to ‘lockdown time’ would be exceedingly unpopular, and it’s not exactly a popular prospect to begin with. Just one correction, scientists working in an advisory capacity for governments absolutely don't consider economic/social factors at all. They are only there to give scientific advice in their own specialist area, and if they stray outside that brief they are usually ignored. This has been the source of some discussion. We are often told about the consequences of letting the virus spread, or failing to enact lockdowns, but there is very little hard science that tells us about the negative effects of lockdown (ie the mental health effects) because there is so little data to go on and that data is really hard to gather. This has led to a kind of one sided messaging where we are told about what the virus will do to society, but are pretty much in the dark about what continued lockdowns will do. Its up to politicians and their economic/social experts to decide the impact of lockdowns. | ||
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teeel141
93 Posts
On November 27 2021 17:53 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: And if it does turn out more transmissible and less deadly, then at what point is it treated the same as the flu? Pfizer claims it can have a vaccine ready for the new variant within 100 days : https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/omicron-variant-covid-vaccine-tweaked-b1965155.html So the question is if it is vaccine resistant then what happens in the 100 days or so before this new injection is ready? With many countries already blocking travel from Africa and NY already declaring a state of emergency over it + Show Spoiler +the answer is pretty clear.More restrictions, more lockdowns, expansion of vaccine passports and mandates.Repeat every new variant, relax the rules slightly in summer only to bring in even stricter restrictions every following Autumn.I can’t see any ‘Return to normal’ on the horizon, just a slow creep into total control. That new vaccine in 100 days thing is not true because of antigenic sin. But if that wasn't a factor they couldnt do it anyway because they would be pushing evolution of the virus with another imperfect vaccine. I think theyre saying it just to calm fears, basically lying. | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5585 Posts
On November 27 2021 19:50 Amui wrote: I mean really there are a variety of scenarios that can play out over the next few weeks. You can hope for the best while still planning for the worst. It's definitely in pretty much every country in the world by now, or will be in the next few weeks. Travel bans I don't think do very much to stop global spread. Maybe delays the inevitable by a week or two at most. Reality probably is somewhere in between the best case and worst case. Best case Somewhat immune resistant, less transmissible, much less deadly, net effect of nothing to worry about. Nothing really changes, but it gives parts of the world some time to deal with Delta. Economy tanks a bit, people get pissed at all the restrictions for seemingly nothing which are then dropped, and life goes on. Worst. highly immune resistant, more transmissible than Delta, more lethal than Delta, so basically a super covid variant with very little of the benefits of prior immunity or vaccination. @Ren normal viruses generally mutate to be less deadly, but there's not a lot of pressure for Covid to do so because it is relatively slow, and a majority of cases are mild enough that people can and do walk around while still infectious. Most people take weeks to succumb, and have plenty of time to spread it even if they do eventually kick the bucket. Best case would actually be if it was only as immune-resistant as Delta, much less deadly than Delta and much more transmissible. The virus would effectively work as a pseudo-vaccine. ;-) | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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WombaT
Northern Ireland25506 Posts
Teel, I outright don’t understand your point on an ‘imperfect vaccine pushing the evolution of the virus’. By what mechanism is that happening that wouldn’t happen magnitudes greater in a virus naturally spreading and doing its thing across a population? This is a new angle for me @Jock, correct correction, should have been more specific. | ||
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teeel141
93 Posts
On November 28 2021 00:28 WombaT wrote: Antigenic Sin is a great name for a prog rock band on the other hand. Teel, I outright don’t understand your point on an ‘imperfect vaccine pushing the evolution of the virus’. By what mechanism is that happening that wouldn’t happen magnitudes greater in a virus naturally spreading and doing its thing across a population? This is a new angle for me @Jock, correct correction, should have been more specific. In terms of how the vaccines would drive the evolution of the virus: Risk of rapid evolutionary escape from biomedical interventions targeting SARS-CoV-2 spike protein And i think without vaccines it would happen but much slower. I'm not an expert at all though, i'm just basing it on what Geert Vanden Bossche is saying. According to him for example, when you have an asymptomic infection you clear the virus with innate immunity which is not antigen specific meaning you don't drive virus evolution in any way. And most infections are asymptomic so that would reduce the pressure on the virus to evolve but ofcourse symptomatic infections would still put pressure. There are other points that he makes on why it wouldn't evolve as easily without vaccines for example how by the time you are clearing the virus with natural infection only then do you make antibodies. With vaccines you could easily get the virus lets say 3 days after vaccination while ideally you need to wait atleast 2 weeks, but nobody can enforce that or is even trying. He also says antibodies from natural infection are somewhat different but i have no idea in what way or what is the significance. Basically you can trust him or not, since youre not an expert so you can only choose who you trust and which arguments make more sense to you. You can watch and see what he had to say in april of this year | ||
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