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On September 23 2021 13:05 RKC wrote:
Well, ball is in CDC's court now.
Ironic. One would think that scientists should favour boosters while progressive political leaders idealise on saving the world...
I’ve worked in science stuff for a long time and the types of folks who end up working in policy are not the die hard scientists. Going into policy generally means being someone who is willing to bend the knee to capitalism and who will kiss feet. Don’t think of people like Fauci as scientists, think of them as tools of capitalism. Science says the way to solve a pandemic looks nothing like what we did. But politics being what they are, that was never really an option. People like Fauci work with scientists to get the info they need to create policy. But they are not people who say “here’s what the science says and so that is what we must do”, far from it.
As I’ve said above, the people in these types of jobs of power are generally not the people who you want there.
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Why is it even a topic that the current vaccines will be worthless? There is nothing suggesting that afaik, Covid does not appear to be a hyper-evolving virus like HIV.
The vaccines trigger multiple different reactions, and the new super-variant would need to bypass all of them in all of us, which is very unlikely.
The booster shot discussion isn't really about science but rather politics. Politicians and national level health experts alike naturally care the most about their own population.
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On September 23 2021 20:13 Slydie wrote:
Why is it even a topic that the current vaccines will be worthless? There is nothing suggesting that afaik, Covid does not appear to be a hyper-evolving virus like HIV.
The vaccines trigger multiple different reactions, and the new super-variant would need to bypass all of them in all of us, which is very unlikely.
The booster shot discussion isn't really about science but rather politics. Politicians and national level health experts alike naturally care the most about their own population. A study from Israel, who were the first to do mass vaccinations, showed good results in a 3e booster shot given to people age 60+ after 5 or more months in both reducing the chance of infection and effects of infection. Which is what I think sparked this discussion.
But there are some questions marks if its actually has a long term benefit or if its just a short term better reaction from your body because you recently had a shot.
There is also the difference between preventing infection and preventing hospitalization and especially in the latter case I don't think there has been much to suggest that the vaccines have reduced effectiveness over time.
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I have found myself visiting this page counting covid related hospitalizations in the UK a lot lately:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
Some of my observations:
-The Delta wave started in the end of June.
-There is adecrease in hospitalisations in the end of July, but then it goes back up, probably related to a peak caused by increased social activity during the Football Eurocup.
-The peak so far was the 8th of September, and it seems to go down from now.
-There was a 7-day average of admissions of over 4000 during the January wave, but it was barely over 1000 during the Delta wave.
-The pandemic is NOT over in the UK, but they have returned to normal life, and the peak of a very flat Delta curve seems have been reached.
Spain also has a Delta wave, but have kept more measures in place and more people are vaccinated. The result: the wave had a much sharper decrease and is essentially over.
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On September 23 2021 13:17 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On September 23 2021 13:05 RKC wrote:
Well, ball is in CDC's court now.
Ironic. One would think that scientists should favour boosters while progressive political leaders idealise on saving the world... I’ve worked in science stuff for a long time and the types of folks who end up working in policy are not the die hard scientists. Going into policy generally means being someone who is willing to bend the knee to capitalism and who will kiss feet. Don’t think of people like Fauci as scientists, think of them as tools of capitalism. Science says the way to solve a pandemic looks nothing like what we did. But politics being what they are, that was never really an option. People like Fauci work with scientists to get the info they need to create policy. But they are not people who say “here’s what the science says and so that is what we must do”, far from it. As I’ve said above, the people in these types of jobs of power are generally not the people who you want there.
Not really black and white:
https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/09/cdc-advisors-decline-to-recommend-boosters-for-health-care-workers-teachers/
layman article as usual, but there's both pros and cons to recommending boosters across the board for everyone outside of 65+/immunocompromised, especially for the youngest segment of the population. On an individual level, it may make sense, but:
But in an extensive debate today, the CDC committee ultimately voted that the group was simply too large and that such a recommendation would essentially result in a booster free-for-all.
It is very much possible to administer boosters to everyone who wants one. Necessary/beneficial at a population level is less clear, because getting a first dose into anyone's arm is far more beneficial than a 3rd dose into a 30 year old's arm.
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On September 23 2021 07:29 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2021 22:03 Magic Powers wrote:
Thinking it over again and again, my conclusion is that the FDA has made the correct decision. More first and second doses should go to countries that desperately need them. We shouldn't let doses expire, but they should also be distributed smarter in the first place, and honestly I think more humanely. It will also likely help end the pandemic sooner.
I think the Biden administration should have a very deep think about this. This would only be true if we were sending anywhere near enough to prevent another variant. We are not. Not even close. That amount of manufacturing doesn’t even exist. We simply don’t have the throughput. I’m going to continue to get boosters and ignore the criminally incompetent FDA
You're being just as selfishly idiotic as the people you want to banish to mohdoo raft.
You say there aren't enough vaccines to get them to people in developing countries. So because there aren't enough for everyone, they should jab *more* into your arm (coz you're a rich white (asian?) guy and can pay more than Gopal or Sibusisiwe).
So when the tau variant comes along out of India, Africa or who knows where, that combines traits of delta and lambda, you can sit there with your 5th booster shot and wonder why this amazing strategy of yours didn't keep you safe.
I think it's fine, maybe even commendable, that you get boosters from vaccines that are waiting to go into Cletus's arm and will expire otherwise. But what you claim here is that the FDA should recommend boosters (and thus buying more vaccines) OVER getting first jabs to people elsewhere in the world. Go enjoy your raft for selfish overvaccination advocates.
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On September 24 2021 15:42 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On September 23 2021 07:29 Mohdoo wrote:On September 22 2021 22:03 Magic Powers wrote:
Thinking it over again and again, my conclusion is that the FDA has made the correct decision. More first and second doses should go to countries that desperately need them. We shouldn't let doses expire, but they should also be distributed smarter in the first place, and honestly I think more humanely. It will also likely help end the pandemic sooner.
I think the Biden administration should have a very deep think about this. This would only be true if we were sending anywhere near enough to prevent another variant. We are not. Not even close. That amount of manufacturing doesn’t even exist. We simply don’t have the throughput. I’m going to continue to get boosters and ignore the criminally incompetent FDA You're being just as selfishly idiotic as the people you want to banish to mohdoo raft. You say there aren't enough vaccines to get them to people in developing countries. So because there aren't enough for everyone, they should jab *more* into your arm (coz you're a rich white (asian?) guy and can pay more than Gopal or Sibusisiwe). So when the tau variant comes along out of India, Africa or who knows where, that combines traits of delta and lambda, you can sit there with your 5th booster shot and wonder why this amazing strategy of yours didn't keep you safe. I think it's fine, maybe even commendable, that you get boosters from vaccines that are waiting to go into Cletus's arm and will expire otherwise. But what you claim here is that the FDA should recommend boosters (and thus buying more vaccines) OVER getting first jabs to people elsewhere in the world. Go enjoy your raft for selfish overvaccination advocates.
So you think we can vaccine the whole world and insure ourselves against future mutations by not giving booster shots in the west? I think you need to explain that in numbers and practicality, not just bash the moral aspect of it. FYI, there are 1,2 billion living in Africa alone.
Afaik, there hasn't even been much talk about giving boosters to anyone but people in risk groups for now.
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On September 24 2021 17:52 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On September 24 2021 15:42 Acrofales wrote:On September 23 2021 07:29 Mohdoo wrote:On September 22 2021 22:03 Magic Powers wrote:
Thinking it over again and again, my conclusion is that the FDA has made the correct decision. More first and second doses should go to countries that desperately need them. We shouldn't let doses expire, but they should also be distributed smarter in the first place, and honestly I think more humanely. It will also likely help end the pandemic sooner.
I think the Biden administration should have a very deep think about this. This would only be true if we were sending anywhere near enough to prevent another variant. We are not. Not even close. That amount of manufacturing doesn’t even exist. We simply don’t have the throughput. I’m going to continue to get boosters and ignore the criminally incompetent FDA You're being just as selfishly idiotic as the people you want to banish to mohdoo raft. You say there aren't enough vaccines to get them to people in developing countries. So because there aren't enough for everyone, they should jab *more* into your arm (coz you're a rich white (asian?) guy and can pay more than Gopal or Sibusisiwe). So when the tau variant comes along out of India, Africa or who knows where, that combines traits of delta and lambda, you can sit there with your 5th booster shot and wonder why this amazing strategy of yours didn't keep you safe. I think it's fine, maybe even commendable, that you get boosters from vaccines that are waiting to go into Cletus's arm and will expire otherwise. But what you claim here is that the FDA should recommend boosters (and thus buying more vaccines) OVER getting first jabs to people elsewhere in the world. Go enjoy your raft for selfish overvaccination advocates. So you think we can vaccine the whole world and insure ourselves against future mutations by not giving booster shots in the west? I think you need to explain that in numbers and practicality, not just bash the moral aspect of it. FYI, there are 1,2 billion living in Africa alone. Afaik, there hasn't even been much talk about giving boosters to anyone but people in risk groups for now.
The US alone has hoarded 1.7 billion doses. In combination with many other wealthier countries the total is approaching 4 billion. I can assure you, you won't run out of booster shots anytime soon.
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On September 24 2021 15:42 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On September 23 2021 07:29 Mohdoo wrote:On September 22 2021 22:03 Magic Powers wrote:
Thinking it over again and again, my conclusion is that the FDA has made the correct decision. More first and second doses should go to countries that desperately need them. We shouldn't let doses expire, but they should also be distributed smarter in the first place, and honestly I think more humanely. It will also likely help end the pandemic sooner.
I think the Biden administration should have a very deep think about this. This would only be true if we were sending anywhere near enough to prevent another variant. We are not. Not even close. That amount of manufacturing doesn’t even exist. We simply don’t have the throughput. I’m going to continue to get boosters and ignore the criminally incompetent FDA You're being just as selfishly idiotic as the people you want to banish to mohdoo raft. You say there aren't enough vaccines to get them to people in developing countries. So because there aren't enough for everyone, they should jab *more* into your arm (coz you're a rich white (asian?) guy and can pay more than Gopal or Sibusisiwe). So when the tau variant comes along out of India, Africa or who knows where, that combines traits of delta and lambda, you can sit there with your 5th booster shot and wonder why this amazing strategy of yours didn't keep you safe. I think it's fine, maybe even commendable, that you get boosters from vaccines that are waiting to go into Cletus's arm and will expire otherwise. But what you claim here is that the FDA should recommend boosters (and thus buying more vaccines) OVER getting first jabs to people elsewhere in the world. Go enjoy your raft for selfish overvaccination advocates.
Exactly.
There's a difference between you personally getting one, and the coordinators of the US response recommending everyone get one. The first is a perfectly valid use of something that couldn't be applied otherwise. The second sets in motion a national-scale reassignment of resources that directly impacts availability elsewhere.
Mohdoo can declare himself the sole fountain of knowledge and science all he wants, the benefits of an Xth shot are still small compared to the benefits of the 1st/2nd shot to someone who has had neither.
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That's fine. I don't have a problem with him getting a dose. Arco said that. I have a problem with him failing to separate the implications of his decision as an individual from the implications of that decision out of an organisation like the CDC, and then claiming that they are political hacks as a result. An individual might not be able to influence whether their dose gets to Africa, but the CDC can, which is why they are more measured.
I'm not going to get into a long argument about it. I don't mind people being emotive and extreme to make a point. However, he's been invoking his self-appointed role as the prophet of SCIENCE to make wild extrapolations that are antithetical to the way science is actually done. Eventually, it needs to be said that this is not science.
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If the current state of virus-vs-vaccine stalemate persists, the Scandinavian* approach perhaps sets the right way forward: Government offers as much medical assistance (vaccine and ICU), social safety net and constant health advisories as a baseline protection. Society reopens after people have enough time to seek the necessary protection they need and adjust their lifestyle. Life goes on. To each their own.
There will still be deaths and infections within a margin of acceptance, of course. But that's how life and liberty goes.
(There may be a need for some monitoring system for potential clusters. Implement random testing at workplace. Cluster breakouts will trigger workplace shutdown and self-isolation. Large fines for non-compliance. So we won't return to total normalcy. Up to every organisation to manage their risk accordingly. The idea is for people to be free, but also be responsible.)
* Whilst their public health policies are not a monolithic bloc, they are generally light on mandates (with Sweden as the extreme outlier in the early days of the pandemic, but now seems to have found the right balance).
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On September 25 2021 12:49 RKC wrote:
If the current state of virus-vs-vaccine stalemate persists, the Scandinavian* approach perhaps sets the right way forward: Government offers as much medical assistance (vaccine and ICU), social safety net and constant health advisories as a baseline protection. Society reopens after people have enough time to seek the necessary protection they need and adjust their lifestyle. Life goes on. To each their own.
There will still be deaths and infections within a margin of acceptance, of course. But that's how life and liberty goes.
(There may be a need for some monitoring system for potential clusters. Implement random testing at workplace. Cluster breakouts will trigger workplace shutdown and self-isolation. Large fines for non-compliance. So we won't return to total normalcy. Up to every organisation to manage their risk accordingly. The idea is for people to be free, but also be responsible.)
* Whilst their public health policies are not a monolithic bloc, they are generally light on mandates (with Sweden as the extreme outlier in the early days of the pandemic, but now seems to have found the right balance).
Right approach but still too early for most of the world. Around 5-6 weeks after kids ages 5-11 can get shots is probably the right time in my books. That's the last large bloc of the population with high interaction levels that cannot currently be vaccinated.
In Canada, the some of the provinces are close to, if not actually overloaded with hospitalizations. There needs to be a decent sized buffer of hospital beds/ICU for things other than covid patients, which there isn't right now. Scheduled surgeries are being delayed, and that's obviously a bad thing. Everything from biopsies to cancer tumour removal is cancelled in some places because of the pressure from covid patients.
Covid being a persistent disease is fine, but the impact it has on normal society right now is a little too high to treat is as nonexistent.
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Right approach but still too early for most of the world. Around 5-6 weeks after kids ages 5-11 can get shots is probably the right time in my books. That's the last large bloc of the population with high interaction levels that cannot currently be vaccinated.
I disagree. Kids getting infected should be the last of our worries. As I understand it, COVID is only marginally worse than a flu for the youngsters, if at all. It should be thoroughly debated if they even need vaccines. Kids also travel less, have a more closed social circles and don't do rave parties. Once parents and grandparents are vaccinated, I think it is time to get back to normal life.
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So many vaccines are already in circulation. It's a choice between covid-19, which is sometimes deadly, or a covid-19 vaccine that isn't deadly. Furthermore, transmission rates may potentially be reduced after vaccination, because most vaccines in general have that effect.
Considering all that, vaccine approval for kids is the obvious choice.
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On September 25 2021 21:14 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +Right approach but still too early for most of the world. Around 5-6 weeks after kids ages 5-11 can get shots is probably the right time in my books. That's the last large bloc of the population with high interaction levels that cannot currently be vaccinated. I disagree. Kids getting infected should be the last of our worries. As I understand it, COVID is only marginally worse than a flu for the youngsters, if at all. It should be thoroughly debated if they even need vaccines. Kids also travel less, have a more closed social circles and don't do rave parties. Once parents and grandparents are vaccinated, I think it is time to get back to normal life.
If there are enough covid vaccines for adults *and* kids, then I see no reason not to have all the kids vaccinated too, especially when considering public schools and the fact that they can still infect other people, even if kids generally don't die from covid. Babies and children already receive a bunch of safe vaccines; they might as well get another safe vaccine, once it's approved as safe for those ages.
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EPT
