EPTCoronavirus and You - Page 475
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Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control. It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you. Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly. This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here. Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. | ||
Liquid`Drone
Norway28910 Posts
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Simberto
Germany12028 Posts
On September 21 2021 00:58 Liquid`Drone wrote: Yes. It's definitely a big problem that a lot of people don't understand fairly basic math and that numbers that should be reassuring rather than scary can end up looking scary based on how they are presented. In this regard, media is definitely a culprit (the chance increased by 500% sounds terrifying, the chance increased from 0.0001% to 0.0005% does not, and media tends to go with the former for clickbait purposes, which is particularly bad knowing how many people only read the headline). It's nothing new or related to vaccines though, we've seen the same for 'this product 8-doubles the likelihood that you get this particular kind of cancer' for a couple decades, where again, it moved from 0.001% to 0.008% or whatever. Yeah, a lot of this is a media problem. I would also add the tendency to run anecdotal stories which people are really bad at dealing with. If something tends to make national headlines when it happens, and happens rarely, people will be aware of every single time it happened and think that it is something that happens a lot and is likely to happen to them, too. But if something happens 5 times in a nation with 300 million people, that is not necessarily likely to happen to you. If you have a story every few days of "Person got vaccinated and then X bad thing happened!", people get the impression that it is very likely that X bad thing happens to you after you get vaccinated, when it may mainly be a case of media selecting to report stories of X bad thing happening to a large amount of people. I think in a lot of ways, humans still act as if they are in tribes with 100 people. If something happens to multiple people they know, it must be very likely to happen, because you don't know that many people. But with modern media outreach, you get to know all of the weird scary things that happen to any of a few million of people, and our brains just can't handle statistics like that emotionally. | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5876 Posts
On September 21 2021 00:42 Liquid`Drone wrote: The vaccine seems overwhelmingly likely to trigger myocarditis. In particular the second dose of Pfizer and Moderna trigger it. It's still super rare. Getting vaccinated is still good for you, because covid is much much more likely to be harmful, etc, etc, etc. But, if you have two options, option a) is 'for whatever reason, is 100% certain to never get covid' and option b) is 'takes the vaccine', then option b) has a higher chance of developing myocarditis or pericarditis than option a). Nobody is comparing it to 'getting covid'. Basically, pre-covid, people also got myocarditis and pericarditis. There's a decent ballpark estimate for how frequently those two conditions appear in the regular population. Then, people are noticing that people who have been recently vaccinated with an mRNA vaccine get myocarditis or pericarditis far more frequently than what used to be the case from the old numbers. It doesn't happen with all vaccines (if it was something that was caused by covid rather than by a specific vaccine, which vaccine used shouldn't make any difference), it happens more frequently with Pfizer than with Moderna (more indication that it's related to the vaccine), and it happens more frequently after the second dose than after the first dose(more indication that it's related to the vaccine). I don't understand why it's difficult to just be like, 'okay, I guess it's really overwhelmingly likely that the mRNA vaccines can cause myocarditis or pericarditis super rarely even without any covid infection'. While what you're saying is true, the bolded part is irrational. Most experts agree that pretty much everyone will eventually get infected within the next few years. Maybe Norway will be an outlier again, but that doesn't apply to most other countries. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Liquid`Drone
Norway28910 Posts
On September 21 2021 01:05 maybenexttime wrote: While what you're saying is true, the bolded part is irrational. Most experts agree that pretty much everyone will eventually get infected within the next few years. Maybe Norway will be an outlier again, but that doesn't apply to most other countries. We pretty much all agree that not vaccinating, for this - or most other reasons - is entirely unreasonable. None of the people involved in this whole debacle is against vaccines, other than our Danish anarchist who also likes them - but who just doesn't want to get one himself.  In Norway, we're at about 3% after 18 months, so ya, we're not heading that way, but who knows. | ||
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teeel141
93 Posts
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Liquid`Drone
Norway28910 Posts
On September 21 2021 01:08 JimmiC wrote: Kind of, but to scare people into not doing the bad behavior not towards it, those are also usually activities you do over and over so there is compounding factor, this is a one timer. And if it something people like they ignore it always which is mostly the point. They people looking for these tiny increases (outside of the docs keeping us safe) are looking for justifications to not do something not reasons. Like in this thread we have spent a ton of time talking back and forth where people don't care about any of the effects except the number who die and death rates. Hospitalizations don't matter, long covid, nothing. Now we have the same people arguing how much more dangerous it is because a .001% increase in a ultra specific age range (lower in all the others) and the death rate had plummeted to zero. If logic was even a little consistent this should be praised as a wonder drug because if saved all these people from dying. But it is not. Who is arguing that it's much more dangerous because of a .001% increase? Also, myself I think hospitalizations and long covid both matter, but they don't matter enough for me to want to socially distance now that I am double vaccinated and that virtually all people I spend time with have at least had the option of getting vaccinated. And, now that everyone at risk (in Norway) have been vaccinated, I want our society to pretty much return to the pre-covid state. I accept that some people will be hospitalized and some people will get long covid (even vaccinated ones), but it's worth it. It wasn't worth it when a lot of people were in danger of dying / when there were a lot more unknown factors, but now, it is. I get feeling differently about Florida - but if I were double vaccinated and I lived there, I'd want to live my life fairly normally too - it wouldn't be my fault that I'm surrounded by idiots (aside from having moved to Florida )))) ), and if a population doesn't want to vaccinate, then I don't expect them to socially distance either. | ||
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RKC
2848 Posts
Of course, some societies being more risk-adverse won't reopen on that basis. To each their own. | ||
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Jek
Denmark2771 Posts
On September 20 2021 08:35 BlackJack wrote: Or just be honest and say that there is a rare but serious side effect? You know, like all other medicines have to... That's what I literally said. They are there but the vacinne's frequency of dangerous side effects is so many times less frequent it doesn't make sense to call to arms about it. Consider how effective treatment is against it, if people just care to actually pay attention it's not an issue at all compared to 99.99999% of all medicine out there. I take Lamictal for a mood disorder, from the box's list of side effects: 1 out of 1000 need to seek immediate medical assistance or enjoy risking that their skin die and literally fall off leading to an agonizing death - if they are lucky it might just be organ failure instead. Why do I dare to take it? Because you can treat side effects at a hospital and the alternative to not taking it is living a miserable life. Granted Lamictal is black box medicine. You will still find the vast majority of medicines to be magnitudes of a factor ten (at least) more dangerous than the vaccine and we use that without anyone caring, because side effects are rare and in nearly all cases treatable. Basically If you want to create to create a fuzz about the vaccine's side effect being an issue, you might as well bark up about all other medicines people take on a daily basis. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if more people died on a yearly basis from eating shellfish. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Liquid`Drone
Norway28910 Posts
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WombaT
Northern Ireland27464 Posts
On September 21 2021 02:09 Jek wrote: That's what I literally said. They are there but the vacinne's frequency of dangerous side effects is so many times less frequent it doesn't make sense to call to arms about it. Consider how effective treatment is against it, if people just care to actually pay attention it's not an issue at all compared to 99.99999% of all medicine out there. I take Lamictal for a mood disorder, from the box's list of side effects: 1 out of 1000 need to seek immediate medical assistance or enjoy risking that their skin die and literally fall off leading to an agonizing death - if they are lucky it might just be organ failure instead. Why do I dare to take it? Because you can treat side effects at a hospital and the alternative to not taking it is living a miserable life. Granted Lamictal is black box medicine. You will still find the vast majority of medicines to be magnitudes of a factor ten (at least) more dangerous than the vaccine and we use that without anyone caring, because side effects are rare and in nearly all cases treatable. Basically If you want to create to create a fuzz about the vaccine's side effect being an issue, you might as well bark up about all other medicines people take on a daily basis. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if more people died on a yearly basis from eating shellfish. Yeah fucking hell, between lithium and quetiapine I need to devote a room in my house purely to contain the side effect literature. I read enough to know what to look for it shit goes wrong and wiped it from my memory, I get a lot of benefits from them and have enough to worry about being a neurotic soul than some of those numbers. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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BlackJack
United States10574 Posts
On September 20 2021 22:06 Magic Powers wrote: Roughly 25% of deaths (est. 12 950 total) in Florida have occurred in this current wave. (Edit: I meant 25% of covid-19 deaths) Peak daily infections during this wave were in the 21k to 27k range and only recently they dipped back under 10k (2x to 3x less than the peak). The wave is clearly still ongoing, as the lowest daily infections prior to this wave were at 1k to 2k, which was about 5x to 10x less than the situation right now. Your claim: "It looks like Florida is on the other side of this delta wave" "they made it through to the other side without going back into lockdown" The numbers clearly show that they're not "on the other side". Not today and certainly not a week ago. Would you - as per your own standards - say that this is a claim of yours that's "simply untrue" and that "we shouldn't spread lies to prove a point"? Not to mention that this is so far the worst wave in terms of infections and deaths that Florida has seen, and that despite the progress in vaccinations they made until prior to DeSantis going completely insane. If you hold other people to a much higher standard than yourself, this is what happens. You face backlash. Accept it and move on. A COVID wave has an ascent, a peak, and then a descent. The ascent is one side of the wave and the descent is the other. Florida is on the other side. The point of saying Florida is on the "other side" of the wave is to point out that if they hadn't gone into lockdown yet then they likely weren't going to go into lockdown while hospitalizations were falling. Meanwhile you said hospitalizations were still rising which was objectively untrue. | ||
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Dingodile
4139 Posts
In Germany you dont know if you are infected because vaccinated people don't have to be tested at all, including visiting university. I won't go this semester. It doesnt matter if I am vaccinated or not just because I dont want the infection. My vaccinated cousin was in Greece last week on holiday. He was forced to be tested every day. Greece doesnt see the difference between vaccinated and unvaccinated people. He said the "greece logic" is more logical than the german one. He was scared because the hotel will throw you out if you are infected (including you suitcases) which happened to a few tourists he saw. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
On September 21 2021 05:17 Dingodile wrote: Imagine you are vaccinated and infected. You would go to uni, restaurant or disco? In Germany you dont know if you are infected because vaccinated people don't have to be tested at all, including visiting university. I won't go this semester. It doesnt matter if I am vaccinated or not just because I dont want the infection. My vaccinated cousin was in Greece last week on holiday. He was forced to be tested every day. Greece doesnt see the difference between vaccinated and unvaccinated people. He said the "greece logic" is more logical than the german one. He was scared because the hotel will throw you out if you are infected (including you suitcases) which happened to a few tourists he saw. Just throwing infected people out of a hotel sounds poorly planned. That may of course prevent infections inside the hotel, but an infected person has to stay somewhere, and then perhaps even with symptoms. So much to the idea that vaccinated people now get treated like first class citizens. Seems more like we're all still mostly in the same boat, just in different starting positions. I wonder if these hotels do PCR or antigen testing, since there's a big difference between the two. Also I think frequent testing makes sense even for vaccinated people, especially now during the Delta wave. My brother is fully vaccinated and he gets tested every day at work, and that also goes for all of his colleagues. It adds a small extra layer of protection, so I guess why not. At least that's how he sees it, he doesn't want to infect anyone at home as that'd be very difficult to handle. | ||
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RKC
2848 Posts
But when vaccination rate is not high enough and infections are still high, I'm staying home as much as possible. It's part of a sense of collective civic duty, and personal interest of not wanting to get infected (even mildly) and having my work life disrupted (after a year, I've gotten used to not having dine-ins and frolicking around, so no big miss from a social life aspect). * Assuming that it's reliable and affordable | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/20/biden-vaccine-booster-supply-513134 I will be citing this article in 2 months to show why Fauci and the FDA are criminally incompetent. This blood will be on their hands. Edit: and just to be clear, there are nowhere near enough doses to prevent variants in other parts of the world. It is a foregone conclusion. Best we can do is vaccinate our own as well as possible. Shipping 500,000 doses to India is theater. | ||
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Slydie
2014 Posts
On September 21 2021 12:21 RKC wrote: Negative testing* is a far better screening method to shield others from infection, while vaccination proof is more to shield oneself from infection. Having both screening methods is most ideal for any passport system (though politically impossible). Between the two, I actually feel more comfortable going to places having the former in place to minimise the risk of infection. When vaccination becomes widely available, I'll be less concerned about whether others are vaxxed (that's on you, not me). But when vaccination rate is not high enough and infections are still high, I'm staying home as much as possible. It's part of a sense of collective civic duty, and personal interest of not wanting to get infected (even mildly) and having my work life disrupted (after a year, I've gotten used to not having dine-ins and frolicking around, so no big miss from a social life aspect). * Assuming that it's reliable and affordable I was also on the "more testing is better" train at first, but then I realized how it turned out in practice. Denmark was the most extreme, and at one point, they had done around 10x the tests per capita as other European countries. Workers and students were ALL tested twice a week. There are 3 problems. The first is deminishing returns; random tests is an extremely inefficient way to track down the virus. It is like finding a plumber by asking random ppl in the street if they know plumbing. As the Danes figured out, you can't test your way out of the pandemic either, as it does not cure you nor stop the spread by itself. On top of that, there are false positives and negatives. Once the worst case scenario is less dramatic than a normal flu season I think the logical thing is to GET BACK TO NORMAL. One example: the UK had around 1k people die per week in the recent wave, but a flu season can peak at over 5k. The UK could have waited a bit to get even more vaccinated, but I find their strategy perfectly reasonable. | ||
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