EPTCoronavirus and You - Page 471
| Forum Index > General Forum |
Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control. It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you. Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly. This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here. Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. | ||
|
Acrofales
Spain18004 Posts
| ||
|
Acrofales
Spain18004 Posts
On September 18 2021 12:34 BlackJack wrote: I wouldn't say you are a liar. I just don't think you know as much as you think you do. You seem to imply that the only known adverse event is a possibility for blood clots from AZ and you say choose a different vaccine. There have been hundreds of cases of myocarditis linked with the pfizer/Moderna vaccines. If you conflate this with the same risk as "doing nothing for a few minutes" then you are too far down the rabbit hole to be reached. In fact, all you had to do was say the vaccines are "safe" instead of without risk and I would have no issue with it. I don't think he specified exactly how long you have to do nothing, but seeing as there's no such thing as "doing nothing" anyway, it doesn't really matter. Living your life for a few minutes is indeed about the same risk as serious vaccine complications. In fact, lets be charitable and ignore the (significantly higher) chance of a complication from getting Covid and act as if it's 2019. First off, the risk of getting myocarditis from a vaccine seems to be, at the highest estimate I could find, roughly 8 in 1million. Almost all of these cases were mild and the patient fully recovered, but lets stick with this "high" estimate. Source (non-peer-reviewed: https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210916/Heart-inflammation-more-common-among-men-following-mRNA-based-COVID-19-vaccination.aspx) Now let's look at the "normal" day to day risks for someone living in Denmark, which is where Amum lives. Denmark is quite a safe country, so for most people these risks will be considerably higher. 1. In 2019 in Denmark, the risk of DYING in a car accident was 3.4/100k people. So the risk of dying in a car accident was 4x higher than that of getting myocarditis. Source: https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/denmark-road-safety.pdf 2. Non-accident external causes (presumably includes things like lightning strikes, eaten by bears, poisoning, and other such fun stuff): in Denmark 7 people aged 30-39 (Amum's age group?) died from these "All other effects of external causes". That's 7/~700k, so 10/1m. Dying from random shit has about the same chance as getting myocarditis. Source: https://www.statbank.dk/statbank5a/selectvarval/define.asp?PLanguage=1&subword=tabsel&MainTable=FOD507&PXSId=146260&tablestyle=&ST=SD&buttons=0 (also statbank.dk for the population numbers of 30-39 year olds). 3. Other accidents (non traffic), e.g. a fire, tripping and falling down the stairs, mauling yourself with a chainsaw when doing some gardening, etc. etc. led to 50 deaths among people aged 30-39 in 2019. So ~ 75/1m, or almost 10x higher than the chance of getting myocarditis. (same source as above) So overall, yes, the chance of adverse side effects from getting a vaccine is quite small in comparison to dying from "doing nothing", and that is comparing every case of myocarditis, most of which are mild, to death statistics. Oh, more fun with random death statistics: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/y/yearly-probability-of-dying.asp | ||
|
Gorsameth
Netherlands21703 Posts
On September 18 2021 12:34 JimmiC wrote: Shows you how 'principled' the anti-vaxxers are. The moment not being vaccinated becomes a detriment to them personally their objections suddenly disappear. Lotteries and payments did nothing to increase vaccination. Announcement of the passport system and jabs tripled over night. https://ca.yahoo.com/news/vaccinations-triple-alberta-announces-version-211902746.html Turns out countries should have started with 'vaccinated people get to go to the bar/disco' a lot sooner. | ||
|
BlackJack
United States10568 Posts
On September 18 2021 16:25 Acrofales wrote: I don't think he specified exactly how long you have to do nothing, but seeing as there's no such thing as "doing nothing" anyway, it doesn't really matter. Living your life for a few minutes is indeed about the same risk as serious vaccine complications. In fact, lets be charitable and ignore the (significantly higher) chance of a complication from getting Covid and act as if it's 2019. First off, the risk of getting myocarditis from a vaccine seems to be, at the highest estimate I could find, roughly 8 in 1million. Almost all of these cases were mild and the patient fully recovered, but lets stick with this "high" estimate. Source (non-peer-reviewed: https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210916/Heart-inflammation-more-common-among-men-following-mRNA-based-COVID-19-vaccination.aspx) Now let's look at the "normal" day to day risks for someone living in Denmark, which is where Amum lives. Denmark is quite a safe country, so for most people these risks will be considerably higher. 1. In 2019 in Denmark, the risk of DYING in a car accident was 3.4/100k people. So the risk of dying in a car accident was 4x higher than that of getting myocarditis. Source: https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/denmark-road-safety.pdf 2. Non-accident external causes (presumably includes things like lightning strikes, eaten by bears, poisoning, and other such fun stuff): in Denmark 7 people aged 30-39 (Amum's age group?) died from these "All other effects of external causes". That's 7/~700k, so 10/1m. Dying from random shit has about the same chance as getting myocarditis. Source: https://www.statbank.dk/statbank5a/selectvarval/define.asp?PLanguage=1&subword=tabsel&MainTable=FOD507&PXSId=146260&tablestyle=&ST=SD&buttons=0 (also statbank.dk for the population numbers of 30-39 year olds). 3. Other accidents (non traffic), e.g. a fire, tripping and falling down the stairs, mauling yourself with a chainsaw when doing some gardening, etc. etc. led to 50 deaths among people aged 30-39 in 2019. So ~ 75/1m, or almost 10x higher than the chance of getting myocarditis. (same source as above) So overall, yes, the chance of adverse side effects from getting a vaccine is quite small in comparison to dying from "doing nothing", and that is comparing every case of myocarditis, most of which are mild, to death statistics. Oh, more fun with random death statistics: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/y/yearly-probability-of-dying.asp Magic Powers didn't specify an exact time but he did specify "a few minutes." Your examination of accidental deaths over an entire calendar year is a very generous interpretation of "a few minutes." But at least you have me convinced that the risks are very small and heavily outweighed by the risks of contracting COVID. | ||
|
Magic Powers
Austria4160 Posts
On September 18 2021 12:34 BlackJack wrote: I wouldn't say you are a liar. I just don't think you know as much as you think you do. You seem to imply that the only known adverse event is a possibility for blood clots from AZ and you say choose a different vaccine. There have been hundreds of cases of myocarditis linked with the pfizer/Moderna vaccines. If you conflate this with the same risk as "doing nothing for a few minutes" then you are too far down the rabbit hole to be reached. In fact, all you had to do was say the vaccines are "safe" instead of without risk and I would have no issue with it. Oh right, you didn't strictly say "you're a liar", you instead said "this is simply untrue" and "lying to them about there being no risk is just going to make them even more skeptical." You'd make for a really good politician. Secondly, a link between Pfizer and myocarditis is not the same as a proven cause. For example, many people have died after covid vaccination, but none so far have provably died from covid vaccination. Without the causal link, the claim that there's a risk would be false. Did you forget what you responded to when you accused me of lying (yes, you did). This is the quoted post: Covid-19 contains more risks than just dropping dead. Vaccination (especially Pfizer) contains no risk other than a sore arm for a few days and in few cases maybe a day of (harmless) side effects. There's no risk from vaccination. There's only risk from infection. To you and to others. Explain to us the gap in this reasoning. The concrete gap. No more vague talk about unknown unknowns that are unknown. Be concrete. I specifically said that vaccination contains, quote: "no risk other than a sore arm for a few days and in few cases maybe a day of (harmless) side effects." I specifically mentioned side effects. Therefore the only thing I could possibly be getting wrong is the risk of hospitalization and death, of which there is no risk, as per the known research. If you do this kind of thing one more time with me, I'll have to start sending complaints to the moderators, because you never provide sources for your wild claims. I'm losing my patience with you. | ||
|
JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
| ||
|
DarkPlasmaBall
United States44372 Posts
On September 18 2021 21:48 JimmiC wrote: So far it looks like it Moderna that is coming up as the number 1 vaccine, especially when it comes to after 6 months. Even in this thread we had people suggesting to aviod it for pfizer. But begore that is was avoid mRNA vaccines. The good news is so far they all work but Moderna looks like the best. https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/17/health/moderna-vaccine-most-effective-cdc-study/index.html It's good to see that Pfizer is still comparable though. Anyone know if your booster needs to match your original vaccine? My original vaccine was Pfizer, but if I hypothetically wanted a Moderna or J&J booster, is such a switch possible? | ||
|
JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
| ||
|
Magic Powers
Austria4160 Posts
The first link highlights some of the key findings and the second link contains the raw data from five different points of publication (download available). Under "Main Points" it states the main limitation of the study, that is it's not "clinically diagnosed ongoing symptomatic COVID-19 or post-COVID-19 syndrome in the full population". Self-reported prevalence can differ from the true prevalence in either direction. A few key findings: - The estimate for all people (living in private households with self-reported long-covid of any duration) is 1.5%, so this number can be used as the baseline. - Symptoms are significantly more prevalent among individuals with a more recent infection (compare tables 4, 5 and 6 in the downloadable file). - Of the self-reported cases, some symptoms are: fatigue (58% of those with self-reported long COVID), followed by shortness of breath (42%), muscle ache (32%), and difficulty concentrating (31%) - 66% of them are adversely affected in their day-to-day activities. 19% say they're "limited a lot". - The most affected groups are aged 35-69 years (est. prevalence of 2.12%+), females (1.73%), people living in the most deprived areas (up to 1.89% as compared to 1.24% in the last deprived areas), those working in health or social care (2.6% to 3.08% as compared to 1.31% for IT or finances), and those with another activity-limiting health condition or disability (up to 3.9% as compared to 1.2% with no health conditions). So there's a clear trend of greater prevalence in more social occupations, i.e. the care sectors first, then teaching, while transport and retail is more in the middle and IT is at the bottom. Another trend shows sectors under the strictest policies (e.g. entertainment and hospitality) being on the lower end. Furthermore, a breakdown of the age groups is quite revealing. Age 35+ (2.12%+) appear to be only somewhat removed from age 25-34 (1.5%, which is exactly the baseline). Age 17-24 is at 1.22% and then there's a clear drop for 12-16 with 0.65%. Age 2-11 are sitting at a comfortable 0.16% The outlier for the age group of 70+ (1.14%) leaves us speculating. Perhaps it's their high vaccination rate (would be my first guess), or another factor could be that a much greater portion of them has already died, and the surviving individuals may perhaps have fewer health conditions in the first place. I don't wanna speculate too much though. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/2september2021 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/alldatarelatingtoprevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk | ||
|
JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
| ||
|
Amui
Canada10567 Posts
On September 19 2021 00:48 JimmiC wrote: As mentioned often on this site that Florida is doing a lot of interesting things with reporting to keep the death numbers low are catching up to them because the trickle they put in plus the backlog is starting to hit at the same time. Now the graph looks horrible but it is still not accurate but closer to accurate for about 3 weeks ago. 494 is the current 7 day average it is showing. YIKES, if that was US wide it would be 6772 a day. And Bama had almost 200 deaths yesterday which per capita is almost twice as bad as florida. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/us/florida So 1/6000 and 1/3000 in a week. We have vaccines, we have a couple years of knowledge and people would still rather take horse dewormer. In a month everybody will have a friend who has lost someone close to them in the last month. It's honestly ridiculous. | ||
|
Mohdoo
United States15690 Posts
On September 18 2021 17:49 Gorsameth wrote: Shows you how 'principled' the anti-vaxxers are. The moment not being vaccinated becomes a detriment to them personally their objections suddenly disappear. Turns out countries should have started with 'vaccinated people get to go to the bar/disco' a lot sooner. Yup, people are discussing antivaxers like they are some dedicated group of y'allqaeda when they really aren't. A lot of them are just shitty ole Karens who will bend the knee as soon as they can't grab brunch. My QAnon cousin was going to get vaxed just to go on some trashy Florida cruise. | ||
|
JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
| ||
|
BlackJack
United States10568 Posts
On September 18 2021 21:06 Magic Powers wrote: Oh right, you didn't strictly say "you're a liar", you instead said "this is simply untrue" and "lying to them about there being no risk is just going to make them even more skeptical." You'd make for a really good politician. Secondly, a link between Pfizer and myocarditis is not the same as a proven cause. For example, many people have died after covid vaccination, but none so far have provably died from covid vaccination. Without the causal link, the claim that there's a risk would be false. Did you forget what you responded to when you accused me of lying (yes, you did). This is the quoted post: I specifically said that vaccination contains, quote: "no risk other than a sore arm for a few days and in few cases maybe a day of (harmless) side effects." I specifically mentioned side effects. Therefore the only thing I could possibly be getting wrong is the risk of hospitalization and death, of which there is no risk, as per the known research. If you do this kind of thing one more time with me, I'll have to start sending complaints to the moderators, because you never provide sources for your wild claims. I'm losing my patience with you. So are you now claiming that myocarditis is a "harmless" side effect? Per the World Health Organization "Current evidence suggests a likely causal association between myocarditis and the mRNA vaccines" "Clinicians should be aware of the risk of myocarditis and pericarditis with mRNA vaccines and those most likely to be affected." https://www.who.int/news/item/09-07-2021-gacvs-guidance-myocarditis-pericarditis-covid-19-mrna-vaccines | ||
|
JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
| ||
|
Magic Powers
Austria4160 Posts
On September 19 2021 05:50 BlackJack wrote: So are you now claiming that myocarditis is a "harmless" side effect? Per the World Health Organization "Current evidence suggests a likely causal association between myocarditis and the mRNA vaccines" "Clinicians should be aware of the risk of myocarditis and pericarditis with mRNA vaccines and those most likely to be affected." https://www.who.int/news/item/09-07-2021-gacvs-guidance-myocarditis-pericarditis-covid-19-mrna-vaccines Myocarditis is a plausible but unproven side effect of the Pfizer vaccine, and it can be easily and safely treated. No one has died from it and no one has been hospitalized. I'm gonna say this very openly right now that it's become obvious to me that you're approaching this situation personally, not fact oriented. You're putting words into my mouth and interpreting the things I actually say in the worst light possible. You're not interested in what's true and what's false. This whole thing is therefore clearly about you and nothing else. I'll say it one last time, if you try to engage with me again in this manner I will write a complaint to the moderators, because you've been causing significant disruptions in this thread with your very personal cruisade. | ||
|
Slydie
1921 Posts
Source in Danish: https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/nattelivet-er-tilbage-gaesterne-gaar-oftere-i-byen-kommer-tidligere-og-bliver A huge party is incoming! | ||
|
teeel141
93 Posts
| ||
|
Magic Powers
Austria4160 Posts
On September 19 2021 18:21 teeel141 wrote: Eric Topol seems to agree with what i said a month ago that they lie for the greater good. And people here tried to tell me that its not lying they just respond to new information. They would never lie surely? Topol said nothing about lies. There's a difference between caution/patience and purposely spreading falsehoods. Furthermore, who's "they"? Scientists are not a hive mind. From what I know many have warned of waning immunity becoming a serious problem down the line. I myself have warned all throughout 2020 of the existing mask policies not conclusively showing to be effective. As it turned out a few months ago I was right, and an earlier FFP2 mask mandate would've been the correct decision. Does that mean someone lied? No, the scientists were continuously trying to figure out what was going on. I think a consensus on FFP2 mask mandates should've been reached much sooner, but I don't presume to know why it took so long. It may not even have anything to do with the scientists themselves, but with policy makers (they're not all the same). | ||
|
BlackJack
United States10568 Posts
On September 19 2021 06:23 Magic Powers wrote: Myocarditis is a plausible but unproven side effect of the Pfizer vaccine, and it can be easily and safely treated. No one has died from it and no one has been hospitalized. I'm gonna say this very openly right now that it's become obvious to me that you're approaching this situation personally, not fact oriented. You're putting words into my mouth and interpreting the things I actually say in the worst light possible. You're not interested in what's true and what's false. This whole thing is therefore clearly about you and nothing else. I'll say it one last time, if you try to engage with me again in this manner I will write a complaint to the moderators, because you've been causing significant disruptions in this thread with your very personal cruisade. Magic Powers: Vaccination (especially Pfizer) contains no risk other than a sore arm for a few days and in few cases maybe a day of (harmless) side effects. WHO: Clinicians should be aware of the risk of myocarditis and pericarditis with mRNA vaccines Now I don't know who to believe | ||
| ||
