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On September 16 2021 06:42 BlackJack wrote:
I'd rather not have an argument over whether or not I should have used present-tense or past-tense and over whether I should quote someone 11 months ago because they could have changed their mind since then.
Then you should ignore everything a scientist says (in this case a physician), because their profession requires huge amounts of rigor, openness to change, and the willingness to admit fault. Everything they say is under the scrutiny of their colleagues. If you prefer to stay closed-minded, then scientists don't tend to be your friends.
When a scientist says something, the complete context always matters, much moreso than for other people. If you don't like that, then don't quote them.
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On September 16 2021 06:59 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On September 16 2021 06:18 Gorsameth wrote:
This argument entirely resolved around that his and the rest of threads idea of 'last resort' are widely different. Most here think 1 in 500 Americans dying is horrible. He thinks its just another Tuesday. Right, and what BJ doesn't understand is that the covid situation changes very drastically over time according to the measures taken. This means that for example 1 in 500 will turn into 1 in 400, then perhaps 300, 200, 100 and so on, unless of course measures are taken. In many countries, vaccination hasn't made enough progress as of late. That's a very big part of why cases are going back up and deaths are also on the rise. I believe no other known measures exist that are as effective as lockdowns and mass vaccination (in that order). Maybe a complete border shutdown? Perhaps. Anything else? China's approach of forced mass home quarantines may've actually worked better (in terms of combatting the outbreak) than I'd previously thought, but we're not receiving enough useful information from them to say anything for sure. Many more children will get vaccinated in the coming months, but will that be enough in a place like the US? I don't know, but I have strong doubts. So to the argument that right now the situation is good enough and therefore lockdowns are unwarranted: time and time again covid has returned with a vengeance whenever people felt like it was safe enough to reopen. It started with the UK, then India, and Brazil, and now apparently even Australia (which makes the contrast to NZ's strong response especially noteworthy). I mean I just don't get it. I want to end all lockdowns right now as much as anyone else, but the data simply doesn't support that approach. I predicted that Texas would see a surge in infections. It came weeks later than I had anticipated (I assume due to a significant delay in the arrival of Delta, which I'd argue speaks for stronger border control), but it did, and very strongly so. Infections and deaths are going up like mad in Texas. And to be completely honest, can we even trust Florida's daily infection count? I'd hope so, but seeing that the reporting method on deaths is specifically designed to obfuscate reality, I'm starting to have serious doubts. This morning I decided to write down the daily infections from Sept 1 onwards so that I can double-check the numbers with future worldometer updates. From what I have gathered Florida is backdating their deaths. Most places count a death for the day they are processed. So if today the government process 100 deaths (that happened during the last 2 weeks) those 100 deaths count as todays daily deaths.
What Florida is doing is counting them as the day they actually died. So its not 100 deaths today, but 100 deaths spread out across the last 2 weeks.
As a result the very recent deaths always appear way down on sites like worldometer, Like Florida is well over the peak, but as the deaths get backlogged the peak keeps moving.
I saw this gif elsewhere that visualizes what they are doing, note that I have not checked its authenticity but it seems to support my own casual observation on worldometer. imgur.com
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On September 16 2021 07:10 Gorsameth wrote:From what I have gathered Florida is backdating their deaths. Most places count a death for the day they are processed. So if today the government process 100 deaths (that happened during the last 2 weeks) those 100 deaths count as todays daily deaths. What Florida is doing is counting them as the day they actually died. So its not 100 deaths today, but 100 deaths spread out across the last 2 weeks. As a result the very recent deaths always appear way down on sites like worldometer, Like Florida is well over the peak, but as the deaths get backlogged the peak keeps moving. I saw this gif elsewhere that visualizes what they are doing, note that I have not checked its authenticity but it seems to support my own casual observation on worldometer. imgur.com
Yeah, we figured this out a while back that Florida changed the way they report deaths. But it's good that you're explaining it for those who may not have read those comments. What I'm wondering is if there's also something being done to infection reports, too. That's why I'm now recording the worldometer reports to see if infections also get backlogged.
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On September 16 2021 06:25 BlackJack wrote:
I don't know what country other than Australia uses lockdowns as a primary control for the virus? Gorsameth told me none of them, so I believed him, but then Magic Powers said I was wrong and spreading misinformation for agreeing with Gorsameth, (although I'm not sure why he didn't direct that at Gorsameth whom I was simply agreeing with).
The point of that quote was directed at all the people saying shit like "We should do everything in our power to minimize this disease." "Preventing human deaths and suffering is the most important thing to do" or whatever, these aren't exact quotes.
My response is for the people that believe those things, they should support full-scale lockdown 24/7 with the National Guard patrolling the streets. That is THE ABSOLUTE BEST WAY to minimize death and spread of the disease.
Then I rightly point out that not even the WHO supports this and it doesn't mean they are "warped and twisted" for not doing more to prevent death. Whether or not Australia or whoever else is using lockdowns in whatever way is irrelevant to my point.
You erect these strawmen where you have to either go on full lockdown or do nothing, and then argue that doing nothing (the Florida approach) is better than full lockdown.
Then people get upset because they (rationally) think Florida did, and is doing, a horrible job of managing Covid and you bring up all this extraneous stuff to show how bad lockdowns are. Then the discussion turns to arguing about whether that is true or not and your goal is accomplished: you have successfully distracted from the fact that there are a billion other things that Florida is actively not doing. And yes, a few months into Covid spiralling completely out of control, a lockdown in Florida would probably have been better than what they did. But they could have done some normal restrictions (like mask mandates, or at least not actively forbidding the requirement of masks).
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On September 16 2021 17:08 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On September 16 2021 06:25 BlackJack wrote:
I don't know what country other than Australia uses lockdowns as a primary control for the virus? Gorsameth told me none of them, so I believed him, but then Magic Powers said I was wrong and spreading misinformation for agreeing with Gorsameth, (although I'm not sure why he didn't direct that at Gorsameth whom I was simply agreeing with).
The point of that quote was directed at all the people saying shit like "We should do everything in our power to minimize this disease." "Preventing human deaths and suffering is the most important thing to do" or whatever, these aren't exact quotes.
My response is for the people that believe those things, they should support full-scale lockdown 24/7 with the National Guard patrolling the streets. That is THE ABSOLUTE BEST WAY to minimize death and spread of the disease.
Then I rightly point out that not even the WHO supports this and it doesn't mean they are "warped and twisted" for not doing more to prevent death. Whether or not Australia or whoever else is using lockdowns in whatever way is irrelevant to my point. You erect these strawmen where you have to either go on full lockdown or do nothing, and then argue that doing nothing (the Florida approach) is better than full lockdown. Then people get upset because they (rationally) think Florida did, and is doing, a horrible job of managing Covid and you bring up all this extraneous stuff to show how bad lockdowns are. Then the discussion turns to arguing about whether that is true or not and your goal is accomplished: you have successfully distracted from the fact that there are a billion other things that Florida is actively not doing. And yes, a few months into Covid spiralling completely out of control, a lockdown in Florida would probably have been better than what they did. But they could have done some normal restrictions (like mask mandates, or at least not actively forbidding the requirement of masks).
I obviously care quite a lot about lockdowns. Masks, not so much. If you want to talk about mask mandates or whatever else Florida did wrong then go ahead. I welcome it. It just means that the lockdowns I'm arguing weren't necessary would be even more unnecessary if they did some other things better.
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We get it, lockdowns are necessary unless the world goes up in flames. Lets move on shall we.
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On September 16 2021 19:46 Magic Powers wrote:
We get it, lockdowns are necessary unless the world goes up in flames. Lets move on shall we.
One major problem with lockdowns is the delays. When hospitalisations and deaths are peaking, the damage was already done a month or more ago, and the wave might be declining anyway by the time the lockdown kicks into effect. For this reason, 0-covid countries use lockdowns preemptively rather than reactively.
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I think stopping them from working will do a lot but even a small tax credit would draw in who else is left in the pro covid camp for the most part.
What we would have left is the type of people who are eating horse paste who are removing their ability to reproduce on their own.
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On September 17 2021 07:46 Sermokala wrote:
I think stopping them from working will do a lot but even a small tax credit would draw in who else is left in the pro covid camp for the most part.
What we would have left is the type of people who are eating horse paste who are removing their ability to reproduce on their own.
Should a financial incentive be retroactively rewarded to everyone who already became vaccinated too, or do you think it's fair to only pay the currently-unvaccinated to finally get vaccinated?
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So Blackjack both self professes to be a heathcare worker who is overworked, and exhausted.
Where I live there is no covid and the hospital system is still an absolute shambles with record ambulance ramping (people waiting to get into emergency) and massive nursing shortfall, The worst ever.
Crazy thing is when you stand down/fire 10-15% (may be higher or lower depending on jurisdiction) of nurses who refuse to take the vax you get serious issues within the hospital system.The remaining folks get more overworked, and a higher percentage of those quit than would normally.
Regular testing instead of mandates would fix this issue but yeah, if one day suddenly 10-15% of nurses dont work there anymore, theres a massive labour shortage and you can’t fill the jobs and you’ve got more restrictive border/immigration policy than before of course you will have problems lol.Basic stuff.
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On September 17 2021 09:24 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Show nested quote +So Blackjack both self professes to be a heathcare worker who is overworked, and exhausted.
Where I live there is no covid and the hospital system is still an absolute shambles with record ambulance ramping (people waiting to get into emergency) and massive nursing shortfall, The worst ever. Crazy thing is when you stand down/fire 10-15% (may be higher or lower depending on jurisdiction) of nurses who refuse to take the vax you get serious issues within the hospital system.The remaining folks get more overworked, and a higher percentage of those quit than would normally. Regular testing instead of mandates would fix this issue but yeah, if one day suddenly 10-15% of nurses dont work there anymore, theres a massive labour shortage and you can’t fill the jobs and you’ve got more restrictive border/immigration policy than before of course you will have problems lol.Basic stuff.
France fired 3000 out of 2.7 million lol.
By my calculations, that’s about .1%. Where are you getting 15%?
There will of course be cletus hospitals with tons of antivax, but no one is denying the cultural dysfunction of rural areas. That’s well established and this is just another example of it.
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On September 17 2021 09:24 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Show nested quote +So Blackjack both self professes to be a heathcare worker who is overworked, and exhausted.
Where I live there is no covid and the hospital system is still an absolute shambles with record ambulance ramping (people waiting to get into emergency) and massive nursing shortfall, The worst ever. Crazy thing is when you stand down/fire 10-15% (may be higher or lower depending on jurisdiction) of nurses who refuse to take the vax you get serious issues within the hospital system.The remaining folks get more overworked, and a higher percentage of those quit than would normally. Regular testing instead of mandates would fix this issue but yeah, if one day suddenly 10-15% of nurses dont work there anymore, theres a massive labour shortage and you can’t fill the jobs and you’ve got more restrictive border/immigration policy than before of course you will have problems lol.Basic stuff.
One issue we had in the US was in spring when the lockdownd went into place and elective surgeries were cancelled, hospitals around the country (outside of a few hotspots) were having hardly any patients and entire wings were being closed down. Despite JimmiC claiming this is fake news because he subscribes to his own version of reality, this is well documented. NPR reported that 1.4 million healthcare workers were laid off in April 2020. Hospitals have been having to play catch up since.
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On September 17 2021 09:24 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Show nested quote +So Blackjack both self professes to be a heathcare worker who is overworked, and exhausted.
Where I live there is no covid and the hospital system is still an absolute shambles with record ambulance ramping (people waiting to get into emergency) and massive nursing shortfall, The worst ever. Crazy thing is when you stand down/fire 10-15% (may be higher or lower depending on jurisdiction) of nurses who refuse to take the vax you get serious issues within the hospital system.The remaining folks get more overworked, and a higher percentage of those quit than would normally. Regular testing instead of mandates would fix this issue but yeah, if one day suddenly 10-15% of nurses dont work there anymore, theres a massive labour shortage and you can’t fill the jobs and you’ve got more restrictive border/immigration policy than before of course you will have problems lol.Basic stuff.
That sucks! It shows that even if there is no actual virus, it can still causes huge problems.
I hope the future will laugh at the tunnel-visioned way we have dealt with this.
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On September 17 2021 12:01 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On September 17 2021 09:24 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:So Blackjack both self professes to be a heathcare worker who is overworked, and exhausted.
Where I live there is no covid and the hospital system is still an absolute shambles with record ambulance ramping (people waiting to get into emergency) and massive nursing shortfall, The worst ever. Crazy thing is when you stand down/fire 10-15% (may be higher or lower depending on jurisdiction) of nurses who refuse to take the vax you get serious issues within the hospital system.The remaining folks get more overworked, and a higher percentage of those quit than would normally. Regular testing instead of mandates would fix this issue but yeah, if one day suddenly 10-15% of nurses dont work there anymore, theres a massive labour shortage and you can’t fill the jobs and you’ve got more restrictive border/immigration policy than before of course you will have problems lol.Basic stuff. France fired 3000 out of 2.7 million lol. By my calculations, that’s about .1%. Where are you getting 15%? There will of course be cletus hospitals with tons of antivax, but no one is denying the cultural dysfunction of rural areas. That’s well established and this is just another example of it.
Like the UK, France's healthcare system was overworked before covid due to various reasons.
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EPT
