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Northern Ireland25771 Posts
On March 16 2020 00:26 Nakajin wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2020 00:24 Artisreal wrote:
Silightly OT:
Mental health is worth nothing in a capitalist society.
It's a detriment. Happy people don't consume blindly to fill the void in their soul. Nah, mental health/ self care industry is worth millions and millions to capitalism 
Not if you’re a cynic like me, not getting a dime. Well, the self-help industry anyway, seen more that I’d rather punch than actually listen to.
I am genuinely worried about my mental health if we’re in lockdown at any point in the future. Getting fresh air, a good walk and getting social contact are such big parts of my routine and keeping me stable.
Hopefully it doesn’t come to it, my entire spring/summer plan was to take up new things and hobbies and be generally healthier and (hopefully happier) once the winter subsided and the long day return.
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On March 16 2020 00:25 farvacola wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2020 00:22 Slydie wrote:
Spain is locked down today already. It is only allowed to go outside for necessary shopping and work and letting dogs do their thing. It is very noticeable how important some fresh air or excercise is when you are not allwowed to do have it. This is essencially emprisoning the entire population.
My part of the country is not evnen close to being overrun and fairly isolated, but that does not matter. People are mostly doing their best to justify the precautions and make the best out of it, but I am curious about how long people can take this.
Mental health is health too... So do you think decrying the social distancing methods supported by medical experts helps or hurts the mental health of others?
Of course these precautions will hurt both physical (lack of exercise) and mental (isolation) health. That is a no-brainer.
The big question is when the precautions cause more damage than the virus itself.
I also found this:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/?fbclid=IwAR0VVYhj9jNqzlBL41KfzjIc6kNChAmGxzmQGNlR_Zdg5OgS8OPZersA5QM#serious-critical
The "serious" cases actually topped already on February 23rd, and has been stable around 6k since March 7th. The problem is that these cases are concentrated in smaller areas, which have been overloaded.
In China itself, 67k out of 81k cases and 95% of the deaths were from the Hubei province acording to this:
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200314-sitrep-54-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=dcd46351_6
I will try to find some comfort in that the precautions are actually working, but these will be some tough weeks or months for sure!
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United States43035 Posts
On March 15 2020 19:55 opterown wrote:Show nested quote +On March 15 2020 19:47 Slydie wrote:On March 15 2020 19:29 opterown wrote:On March 15 2020 19:08 Slydie wrote:Let's look at Italy - 1.4k deaths over about 2 weeks - and continuing to increase! If we are optimistic and assume that this stays stable - that's over 35,000 deaths in a year, for a population of 60 million. Extrapolate this to over 7 billion people and you have over 4 million people dead in one year. Do you have any reason to believe that deaths due to new viral infections stay stable over extended periods of time? Well, looking at some other recent viruses of note - SARS, MERS, Ebola, etc have all retained similar CFR over time. The thing that got rid of them was good transmission control i.e. less cases. That's where all this social distancing thing comes into play. If the virus goes unchecked without effective public health measures like shutdowns or travel restrictions, the trajectory will be terrible. You also can't really rely in herd immunity - there are a lot of viruses that humans have never developed herd immunity to without vaccines e.g. chickenpox or measles. We don't even really know that being infected once with COVID will protect you against future infections. Now of course, if we develop an effective treatment or vaccine for this, things may change. HIV would have almost 100% CFR without the medications we have today. I would be overjoyed if the 100,000 estimate turns out to be correct. However, I'm not so optimistic. What I meant is that the deathrate tends to fall rapidly after the first outbreak, like it indeed has in China. It will also repeat that covid only contributes to a very common cause of death for a vulnerable part of the population. I think it is safe to say many Covid victims would have deceased later from other infections. China has had a much stronger response to their situation than the West, we cannot really extrapolate the situation in Europe/USA to what they have been seeing. It is more reasonable to extrapolate from Italy's situation. Unfortunately, we cannot easily shut down our societies as well as China or Singapore can. COVID contributes to a common cause of death in the elderly, yes. Respiratory tract infections cause about a million deaths in the elderly each year worldwide (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(18)30310-4/fulltext). If you add my value of ~4 million to that, that's not a small contribution by any means. Even doubling it would be a severe burden to the health system. People like you and me probably will be fine, but I'm sure a lot of people have parents or grandparents in high risk groups. Plus, as I said earlier, if you got into a car accident or something, you'll be less likely to receive optimum care if all the other health resources are diverted to COVID care. Remember, we're only seeing the beginning of the epidemic in the west. Italy shows no signs of slowing down, and there are many countries not far behind. Please don't treat COVID lightly.
I still don’t think the numbers coming from China are realistic. I’ll believe they slowed the spread but not that they contained it. To contain it you need to identify each new infection before they infect someone else, during the asymptomatic period. Just doesn’t seem plausible.
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Netherlands45349 Posts
Schools, Gyms, Restaurants etc are to close here too now.
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On March 15 2020 20:41 SC-Shield wrote:Show nested quote +On March 15 2020 17:52 opterown wrote:
Let's look at Italy - 1.4k deaths over about 2 weeks - and continuing to increase! If we are optimistic and assume that this stays stable - that's over 35,000 deaths in a year, for a population of 60 million. Extrapolate this to over 7 billion people and you have over 4 million people dead in one year. You can't do your world estimate based on Italy and Spain. People there live up to ~84 years on average, while people in Sierra Leone live up to 52 years on average. See, you could have more old people in one country and much less in another. Coronavirus is effective against 65+ year old people if we exclude other factors such as underlying health conditions, so you can't compare Italy and Spain to countries which don't have nearly the same lifespan. Also, I don't think it's wise to estimate anything as different countries have different measures. Some have lockdowns, others still don't. It's just impossible to come up with anything reliable.
You cant "exclude other factors". Not only is COVID-19 deadlier for all age groups than the flu is (even if the CFR is still low for the young), but a massive swath of the western world (well over 50% in many countries) has heart disease, hypertension, diabetes, and other comorbidities, all of which increase mortality risk with COVID-19.
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I'm eating healthy, exercising often and not drinking at all. My body is a fucking temple right now. If Corona finds its way into my body, we will fight it with all our might.
#CellsAtWork
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Northern Ireland25771 Posts
On March 16 2020 01:53 Mohdoo wrote:
I'm eating healthy, exercising often and not drinking at all. My body is a fucking temple right now. If Corona finds its way into my body, we will fight it with all our might.
#CellsAtWork
That’s the spirit haha, can’t say I’m in the same boat though!
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On March 16 2020 01:56 Wombat_NI wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2020 01:53 Mohdoo wrote:
I'm eating healthy, exercising often and not drinking at all. My body is a fucking temple right now. If Corona finds its way into my body, we will fight it with all our might.
#CellsAtWork That’s the spirit haha, can’t say I’m in the same boat though!
Even if it doesn't tend to kill young people, some young people have a miserable experience. I don't want an even slightly negative experience if I can avoid it.
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Well, these images are pretty terrifying.
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On March 15 2020 19:55 opterown wrote:Show nested quote +On March 15 2020 19:47 Slydie wrote:On March 15 2020 19:29 opterown wrote:On March 15 2020 19:08 Slydie wrote:Let's look at Italy - 1.4k deaths over about 2 weeks - and continuing to increase! If we are optimistic and assume that this stays stable - that's over 35,000 deaths in a year, for a population of 60 million. Extrapolate this to over 7 billion people and you have over 4 million people dead in one year. Do you have any reason to believe that deaths due to new viral infections stay stable over extended periods of time? Well, looking at some other recent viruses of note - SARS, MERS, Ebola, etc have all retained similar CFR over time. The thing that got rid of them was good transmission control i.e. less cases. That's where all this social distancing thing comes into play. If the virus goes unchecked without effective public health measures like shutdowns or travel restrictions, the trajectory will be terrible. You also can't really rely in herd immunity - there are a lot of viruses that humans have never developed herd immunity to without vaccines e.g. chickenpox or measles. We don't even really know that being infected once with COVID will protect you against future infections. Now of course, if we develop an effective treatment or vaccine for this, things may change. HIV would have almost 100% CFR without the medications we have today. I would be overjoyed if the 100,000 estimate turns out to be correct. However, I'm not so optimistic. What I meant is that the deathrate tends to fall rapidly after the first outbreak, like it indeed has in China. It will also repeat that covid only contributes to a very common cause of death for a vulnerable part of the population. I think it is safe to say many Covid victims would have deceased later from other infections. China has had a much stronger response to their situation than the West, we cannot really extrapolate the situation in Europe/USA to what they have been seeing. It is more reasonable to extrapolate from Italy's situation. Unfortunately, we cannot easily shut down our societies as well as China or Singapore can. COVID contributes to a common cause of death in the elderly, yes. Respiratory tract infections cause about a million deaths in the elderly each year worldwide (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(18)30310-4/fulltext). If you add my value of ~4 million to that, that's not a small contribution by any means. Even doubling it would be a severe burden to the health system. People like you and me probably will be fine, but I'm sure a lot of people have parents or grandparents in high risk groups. Plus, as I said earlier, if you got into a car accident or something, you'll be less likely to receive optimum care if all the other health resources are diverted to COVID care. Remember, we're only seeing the beginning of the epidemic in the west. Italy shows no signs of slowing down, and there are many countries not far behind. Please don't treat COVID lightly.
Just like to say that we didn't really 'shut down' our society here in singapore. Everyone's lives are still normal. You still go out. You still go to malls, parks, bars etc. The difference is many companys are doing split team work from home arrangements.
What we have done are strict measures to prevent the situation from escalating uncontrollably like in Europe or wuhan. Like I posted early in this thread, basically we restricted visitors from affected regions to travel here. If for whatever reason they need do, they have to go through mandatory quarantine. All suspected cases (ie. Close contact with confirmed cases via contact tracing) are also quarantined. We have also made testing easily available and free for everyone.
All this is to ensure that the situation is contained and controlled. Our daily lives and routine have not changed much, because its still safe to be outside. There is no 'lock down' like what you see in Europe or Wuhan.
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here on the central coast of california i think we just started taking it kinda serious the last few days, and this coming week is going to be interesting. Work is allowing people to work from home if they beg enough but not closing the office and giving charming speeches about the need to focus on profit, so that's nice. I'm expecting by this time next sunday the world will be on literal fire. good luck everyone
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Wtf I thought Walmart's parking lot had everything under control!?
@__________@
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United States43035 Posts
On March 16 2020 02:12 Mohdoo wrote:Wtf I thought Walmart's parking lot had everything under control!? @__________@
It’s somewhat amusing that the Jade Helm folks believed Obama planned to use emergency powers to send them all to Walmart.
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On March 16 2020 01:51 Stratos_speAr wrote: has heart disease, hypertension, diabetes, and other comorbidities, all of which increase mortality risk with COVID-19.
for a large % of the population under 40 lifestyle choices have a huge impact on these co morbidities.
many North Americans are in a constant state of cortisol inducing tension. Most of that group needs to learn and practise some relaxation techniques.
...when you breathe as if you are relaxed.. you start to become relaxed...
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Netherlands just closed all schools, cafe's and sports and fitness clubs until 6th of april. Medical and emergency service staff will still get free child care so they can continue their jobs.
For some reason they also closed weedshops which seems like a really bad idea to me. Just prohibit the social smoking part of them but still keep the sales going. Now a lot of people will be forced to the illegal market...
Not to mention a forced concentration of people getting weed last minute with long waiting lines :-X
It's still wild to me how big an impact this whole thing has and how little we were worried one month ago.
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Northern Ireland25771 Posts
On March 16 2020 02:35 JimmyJRaynor wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2020 01:51 Stratos_speAr wrote: has heart disease, hypertension, diabetes, and other comorbidities, all of which increase mortality risk with COVID-19. for a large % of the population under 40 lifestyle choices have a huge impact on these co morbidities. many North Americans are in a constant state of cortisol inducing tension. Most of that group needs to learn and practise some relaxation techniques. ...when you breathe as if you are relaxed.. you start to become relaxed...
Breathing techniques can mitigate issues but they can only go so far if people’s stressors are being on the poverty line or having particularly stressful work environments.
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Canada8031 Posts
On March 16 2020 01:01 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On March 15 2020 19:55 opterown wrote:On March 15 2020 19:47 Slydie wrote:On March 15 2020 19:29 opterown wrote:On March 15 2020 19:08 Slydie wrote:Let's look at Italy - 1.4k deaths over about 2 weeks - and continuing to increase! If we are optimistic and assume that this stays stable - that's over 35,000 deaths in a year, for a population of 60 million. Extrapolate this to over 7 billion people and you have over 4 million people dead in one year. Do you have any reason to believe that deaths due to new viral infections stay stable over extended periods of time? Well, looking at some other recent viruses of note - SARS, MERS, Ebola, etc have all retained similar CFR over time. The thing that got rid of them was good transmission control i.e. less cases. That's where all this social distancing thing comes into play. If the virus goes unchecked without effective public health measures like shutdowns or travel restrictions, the trajectory will be terrible. You also can't really rely in herd immunity - there are a lot of viruses that humans have never developed herd immunity to without vaccines e.g. chickenpox or measles. We don't even really know that being infected once with COVID will protect you against future infections. Now of course, if we develop an effective treatment or vaccine for this, things may change. HIV would have almost 100% CFR without the medications we have today. I would be overjoyed if the 100,000 estimate turns out to be correct. However, I'm not so optimistic. What I meant is that the deathrate tends to fall rapidly after the first outbreak, like it indeed has in China. It will also repeat that covid only contributes to a very common cause of death for a vulnerable part of the population. I think it is safe to say many Covid victims would have deceased later from other infections. China has had a much stronger response to their situation than the West, we cannot really extrapolate the situation in Europe/USA to what they have been seeing. It is more reasonable to extrapolate from Italy's situation. Unfortunately, we cannot easily shut down our societies as well as China or Singapore can. COVID contributes to a common cause of death in the elderly, yes. Respiratory tract infections cause about a million deaths in the elderly each year worldwide (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(18)30310-4/fulltext). If you add my value of ~4 million to that, that's not a small contribution by any means. Even doubling it would be a severe burden to the health system. People like you and me probably will be fine, but I'm sure a lot of people have parents or grandparents in high risk groups. Plus, as I said earlier, if you got into a car accident or something, you'll be less likely to receive optimum care if all the other health resources are diverted to COVID care. Remember, we're only seeing the beginning of the epidemic in the west. Italy shows no signs of slowing down, and there are many countries not far behind. Please don't treat COVID lightly. I still don’t think the numbers coming from China are realistic. I’ll believe they slowed the spread but not that they contained it. To contain it you need to identify each new infection before they infect someone else, during the asymptomatic period. Just doesn’t seem plausible.
Whether or not you believe their numbers is one thing, but I think they absolutely have the capability for containment. The government has access to a ton of information on people's movements. There's apps that track what people are on each bus. There's cameras literally everywhere. Tracking who you need to quarantine is really just a matter of manpower and processing power, and they're not exactly shy about quarantining huge swathes of people.
A lot of absurd shit becomes possible when you're as draconian as China. Imagine if other countries could use something like Google Location History to track people with the virus. It'd be an egregious breach of privacy to be sure, but that level of information opens the door for a lot of possibilities.
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On March 16 2020 02:39 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:Netherlands just closed all schools, cafe's and sports and fitness clubs until 6th of april. Medical and emergency service staff will still get free child care so they can continue their jobs. For some reason they also closed weedshops which seems like a really bad idea to me. Just prohibit the social smoking part of them but still keep the sales going. Now a lot of people will be forced to the illegal market... Not to mention a forced concentration of people getting weed last minute with long waiting lines :-X https://twitter.com/RTLnieuws/status/1239235714585448451It's still wild to me how big an impact this whole thing has and how little we were worried one month ago.
Drug addicts are idiots, nothing new.
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EPT
