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On March 15 2020 20:58 SC-Shield wrote:Show nested quote +On March 15 2020 20:48 maybenexttime wrote:On March 15 2020 20:41 SC-Shield wrote:On March 15 2020 17:52 opterown wrote:
Let's look at Italy - 1.4k deaths over about 2 weeks - and continuing to increase! If we are optimistic and assume that this stays stable - that's over 35,000 deaths in a year, for a population of 60 million. Extrapolate this to over 7 billion people and you have over 4 million people dead in one year. You can't base your world estimate based on Italy and Spain. People there live up to ~84 years on average, while people in Sierra Leone live up to 52 years on average. See, you could have more old people in one country and much less in another. Coronavirus is effective against 65+ year old people if we exclude other factors such as underlying health conditions, so you can't compare Italy and Spain to countries which don't have nearly the same lifespan. People already pointed out that you're confusing life expectancy with population age structure. You can have a country with very high child mortality rate where people who do survive live to an old age. Well, no. If you have high mortality rate, you can't have long lifespan by definition. Let's take extreme numbers to make this easy to understand. If 50% of population dies at age 10 (high child mortality rate), then other 50% die at age 80. Then, average lifespan is 45 years if my math is right. I see some sophisticated formulas on internet, so maybe this is wrong but you get the idea. I think what you meant was you could have long lifespan, but births/year outnumber retirements/year for you to counter my point.
While life expectancy does correlate to the portion of old people in your society, it is a bad proxy. Average age is a better proxy, but why not just look at percentile population over 60, if that is what you are interested in?
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This thread is a good idea.
I live in northern-eastern Germany (in Rostock, about 200k inhabitants). Like everything in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (the german subregion I live in) cases and reaction speed was kind of delayed. I already read about panic buying in other regions since 2 weeks ago or so but it only just started here on Friday when the regional government announced that schools and kindergardens will be closed from monday on. While I didn't care much about toilet paper, pasta and such because it is known that there won't be any shortage any time soon I had to hoard books in my university library because it also will be closed for at least a month.
Kindergarden being closed means more time with my son (4) for me, which isn't a big deal to our plans because my wife starts working on monday again and I had planned to take care of my daughter (she has her first birthday today!) for the next few months in the forenoon anyway. But I imagine this will be quite a hassle for other parents.
Most events get cancelled now, even church services which pleasently shows how reasonable our protestant church is acting here around. My father won't celebrate with us the birthday of our daughter because he just had a surgery.
On the streets there barely is a sign of anything. Stores, cafés and restaurants are still open.
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It's frankly alarming to me how badly german government and population are reacting. People are still acting as if nothing's going on. I fear that we will reach italy levels of bad before they wake up.
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On March 15 2020 22:38 InFiNitY[pG] wrote:
It's frankly alarming to me how badly german government and population are reacting. People are still acting as if nothing's going on. I fear that we will reach italy levels of bad before they wake up.
I work for the German company and mandatory quarantine and self-isolation for people returning from vacation/business trips was in place relatively early. For over a week now anyone who can work from home is pretty much forced to do so.
I find the reaction adequate and on time (those measures were introduced at least a week before they did similar things in Poland for example).
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Netherlands45349 Posts
So basically one of the top dogs at our National Health Centre said something along the lines of that we don't need to take as drastic measures as Italy because we Dutch people are much more likely to have good hygiene and to follow protocols.
yeaaah okeeeeeeeeeeee.
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It's just mesmerizing how high of a death rate Italy and Iran have, compared to South Korea and or even the US so far.
My country has 60 confirmed cases. Already started the distance protocols (no hand/face contact, wash hands all the time, avoid crowded place). No confirmed cases in my city or region yet.
Was wondering when should I stop going to the gym and fully lockdown my parents in their apartment (both 70+).
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On March 15 2020 23:14 GoTuNk! wrote:
It's just mesmerizing how high of a death rate Italy and Iran have, compared to South Korea and or even the US so far.
in the US it's only starting, in SK it's winding down, by the looks of it.
Iran overtook SK in active cases, by tomorrow Spain will as well
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Canada8991 Posts
On March 15 2020 23:14 GoTuNk! wrote:
It's just mesmerizing how high of a death rate Italy and Iran have, compared to South Korea and or even the US so far.
My country has 60 confirmed cases. Already started the distance protocols (no hand/face contact, wash hands all the time, avoid crowded place). No confirmed cases in my city or region yet.
Was wondering when should I stop going to the gym and fully lockdown my parents in their apartment (both 70+).
It's probably in part a matter of social services and administration size and quality I'd imagine Spain will have mortality rate similar to Italy, along side with most southern european country and poorer country if they get infected. The US I don't know.
For all the crap given about the Netherland, England and scandinavia refusing to shutdown, their public health system probably have a bigger capacity of integration of Covid-19 patients ence maybe they think they can take the hit of a faster propagation without losing control.
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On March 15 2020 23:38 Geo.Rion wrote:Show nested quote +On March 15 2020 23:14 GoTuNk! wrote:
It's just mesmerizing how high of a death rate Italy and Iran have, compared to South Korea and or even the US so far.
in the US it's only starting, in SK it's winding down, by the looks of it. Iran overtook SK in active cases, by tomorrow Spain will as well
Has Spain only just now announced lockdown? If yes, that could explain sudden spike in numbers.
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On March 15 2020 23:14 GoTuNk! wrote:
It's just mesmerizing how high of a death rate Italy and Iran have, compared to South Korea and or even the US so far.
I suspect that these countries have more infected people than are being reported. If there are 10 times as many infections, those death rates make more sense. I wouldn't say Iran has handled it well, but Italy isn't exactly a country famous for preventable death due to poor healthcare.
US is just starting to get its first massive uptick in cases; it's going to get worse.
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On March 15 2020 23:58 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On March 15 2020 23:14 GoTuNk! wrote:
It's just mesmerizing how high of a death rate Italy and Iran have, compared to South Korea and or even the US so far. I suspect that these countries have more infected people than are being reported. If there are 10 times as many infections, those death rates make more sense. I wouldn't say Iran has handled it well, but Italy isn't exactly a country famous for preventable death due to poor healthcare. US is just starting to get its first massive uptick in cases; it's going to get worse. Aside from a lot of unreported cases Italy is mostly the hospitals being overwhelmed. People who would otherwise survive are dying because they do not have enough equipment for everyone.
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On March 15 2020 20:28 Big J wrote:Show nested quote +On March 15 2020 18:14 Geo.Rion wrote:On March 15 2020 17:54 Big J wrote:On March 15 2020 17:11 InFiNitY[pG] wrote:
china and south korea reacted really well to the outbreak, overall I think the asian culture of obedience/discipline and believe in their government helped immensly in containing the virus.
It is still spreading uncontrollably across the rest of the world and most countries are not nearly as well prepared as those two. Germany seems to be reacting really badly. I have to say that I am quite pleased with the Austrian governments reaction. The country is basically coming to a halt at the start of the next week, which seems to me appropiate, given the Asian and Italian experiences. Well maybe they arent doing that well with containing it, but the deathcount is insanely low relative to the number of cases. Is there something I'm missing? Germans report deaths differently than other countries? Not declaring COVID 19 deaths if the patient had other major problems? Or is the German healthcare infrastructure just that good? (i think it could be) Italy is complaining that Germany is not testing properly. Also Germany is quite behind Italy (like Austria). Whether measures work or not in countries will be observed in the coming 2 weeks I believe.
A friend of mine is sick with fever, cough and shortness of breath. Her GP stayed 2m away from her and tried to get her tested. But here you only get a test when you have been to a risk region (which btw is not even the whole of China, just Wuhan) or had contact with a confirmed case. Since we know community spread is happening the explanation is that there aren't enough tests. Really reassuring...
On March 15 2020 18:20 r00ty wrote:So reportedly the German company CureVac is furthest in development of a vaccine. Also reportedly Trump tries to buy that company at the moment with intent to patent the vaccine just for "himself". So he can be the savior, decide who gets it and to make profit. The german government tries to prevent that by all means. If this is true, I cosider the Trump administration an enemy of the German people at this point. German state media article: + Show Spoiler +
If that happens I'll go there by bike and burn that company to the ground...
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On March 16 2020 00:12 schaf wrote:Show nested quote +On March 15 2020 20:28 Big J wrote:On March 15 2020 18:14 Geo.Rion wrote:On March 15 2020 17:54 Big J wrote:On March 15 2020 17:11 InFiNitY[pG] wrote:
china and south korea reacted really well to the outbreak, overall I think the asian culture of obedience/discipline and believe in their government helped immensly in containing the virus.
It is still spreading uncontrollably across the rest of the world and most countries are not nearly as well prepared as those two. Germany seems to be reacting really badly. I have to say that I am quite pleased with the Austrian governments reaction. The country is basically coming to a halt at the start of the next week, which seems to me appropiate, given the Asian and Italian experiences. Well maybe they arent doing that well with containing it, but the deathcount is insanely low relative to the number of cases. Is there something I'm missing? Germans report deaths differently than other countries? Not declaring COVID 19 deaths if the patient had other major problems? Or is the German healthcare infrastructure just that good? (i think it could be) Italy is complaining that Germany is not testing properly. Also Germany is quite behind Italy (like Austria). Whether measures work or not in countries will be observed in the coming 2 weeks I believe. A friend of mine is sick with fever, cough and shortness of breath. Her GP stayed 2m away from her and tried to get her tested. But here you only get a test when you have been to a risk region (which btw is not even the whole of China, just Wuhan) or had contact with a confirmed case. Since we know community spread is happening the explanation is that there aren't enough tests. Really reassuring... Show nested quote +On March 15 2020 18:20 r00ty wrote:So reportedly the German company CureVac is furthest in development of a vaccine. Also reportedly Trump tries to buy that company at the moment with intent to patent the vaccine just for "himself". So he can be the savior, decide who gets it and to make profit. The german government tries to prevent that by all means. If this is true, I cosider the Trump administration an enemy of the German people at this point. German state media article: + Show Spoiler + If that happens I'll go there by bike and burn that company to the ground...
It's actually worse. A friend of mine has been in contact with a confirmed case, yet will NOT be tested unless he shows symptoms.
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On March 15 2020 22:52 Manit0u wrote:Show nested quote +On March 15 2020 22:38 InFiNitY[pG] wrote:
It's frankly alarming to me how badly german government and population are reacting. People are still acting as if nothing's going on. I fear that we will reach italy levels of bad before they wake up. I work for the German company and mandatory quarantine and self-isolation for people returning from vacation/business trips was in place relatively early. For over a week now anyone who can work from home is pretty much forced to do so. I find the reaction adequate and on time (those measures were introduced at least a week before they did similar things in Poland for example).
Most companys here do that yes. However public gatherings are still continuing, concerts, bars, pubs, restaurants and cafés are still open.
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Spain is locked down today already. It is only allowed to go outside for necessary shopping and work and letting dogs do their thing. It is very noticeable how important some fresh air or excercise is when you are not allwowed to do have it. This is essencially emprisoning the entire population.
My part of the country is not evnen close to being overrun and fairly isolated, but that does not matter. People are mostly doing their best to justify the precautions and make the best out of it, but I am curious about how long people can take this.
Mental health is health too...
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Silightly OT:
Mental health is worth nothing in a capitalist society.
It's a detriment. Happy people don't consume blindly to fill the void in their soul.
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On March 16 2020 00:22 Slydie wrote:
Spain is locked down today already. It is only allowed to go outside for necessary shopping and work and letting dogs do their thing. It is very noticeable how important some fresh air or excercise is when you are not allwowed to do have it. This is essencially emprisoning the entire population.
My part of the country is not evnen close to being overrun and fairly isolated, but that does not matter. People are mostly doing their best to justify the precautions and make the best out of it, but I am curious about how long people can take this.
Mental health is health too...
So do you think decrying the social distancing methods supported by medical experts helps or hurts the mental health of others?
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Canada8991 Posts
On March 16 2020 00:24 Artisreal wrote:
Silightly OT:
Mental health is worth nothing in a capitalist society.
It's a detriment. Happy people don't consume blindly to fill the void in their soul.
Nah, mental health/ self care industry is worth millions and millions to capitalism 
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EPT
