EPTWithout doing the numbers me more precisely it looks roughly like it comes to 168k-150k so that 15k excess mortality for 2020 doesn't seem outlandish. There seems to be an increasing trend from the beginning of your sample, or at least from 2007 onwards. Hard to say whether the pre-2020 figures are all part of the same trend without more precise calculations, but it doesn't look particularly unlikely for me
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Oukka
Finland1683 Posts
Without doing the numbers me more precisely it looks roughly like it comes to 168k-150k so that 15k excess mortality for 2020 doesn't seem outlandish. There seems to be an increasing trend from the beginning of your sample, or at least from 2007 onwards. Hard to say whether the pre-2020 figures are all part of the same trend without more precise calculations, but it doesn't look particularly unlikely for me | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Lmui
Canada6223 Posts
The Trump administration announced Tuesday, January 12, that it would begin shipping reserved vaccine supplies, raising hopes that states may see their vaccine supply potentially double as they work to accelerate the sluggish immunization campaign. But according to a report by The Washington Post, that promised vaccine stockpile doesn’t actually exist—it was already shipped out—and the limited vaccine supply available to states will remain as it is for now. Pretty much, the only way you get more doses is to use up every dose you already have, and tell the feds that, so that you get a small number of bonus doses next evaluation period. https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/01/there-is-no-covid-vaccine-reserve-trump-admin-already-shipped-it/ | ||
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CuddlyCuteKitten
Sweden2904 Posts
To be fair this is the classic "please give our research more money" line found in the end of virtually any paper. Not saying they couldn't be right but there is always a line regarding significance with the keywords: could, novel, severe disease, important etc. And there is going to be a lot of teams out there putting out papers hoping to get some of that sweet covid research money. All you need is findings with some significance and a penchant for making bold claims. | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4456 Posts
On January 14 2021 20:32 Slydie wrote: Norway might do a slight reconsideration to their vaccine policy. It turns out the oldest and weakest get worst side effects and can die from them, 13 deaths are now connected to the vaccine. It brings up some important philosophical questions. Is avoiding the deaths of the old and weak given too much importance, and what to do when a treatment is a significant risk in itself? Source in Norwegian: https://www.nrk.no/norge/legemiddelverket-knytter-13-dodsfall-til-bivirkninger-av-vaksinen-1.15327024 Here is an English source https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-15/norway-warns-of-vaccination-risks-for-sick-patients-over-80 Norway said Covid-19 vaccines may be too risky for the very old and terminally ill, the most cautious statement yet from a European health authority as countries assess the real-world side effects of the first shots to gain approval. Norwegian officials said 23 people had died in the country a short time after receiving their first dose of the vaccine. Of those deaths, 13 have been autopsied, with the results suggesting that common side effects may have contributed to severe reactions in frail, elderly people, according to the Norwegian Medicines Agency. “For those with the most severe frailty, even relatively mild vaccine side effects can have serious consequences,” the Norwegian Institute of Public Health said. “For those who have a very short remaining life span anyway, the benefit of the vaccine may be marginal or irrelevant.” Nothing we didn't know already but good to hear it from official public health sources. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
Will be interesting to see the actual substantive analyses, it's clear from the article they're just getting started. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
Long-awaited results about the effectiveness of a leading Chinese COVID-19 vaccine were tinged with disappointment and confusion this week. But researchers say the vaccine could help reduce deaths from the disease. Researchers in Brazil reported that CoronaVac, developed by Beijing-based Sinovac, was 50.4% effective at preventing severe and mild COVID-19 in late-stage trials. That’s significantly lower than the 90% efficacies of several leading vaccines. The CoronaVac figures were much lower than those from early trials of the same vaccine in Turkey and Indonesia, and below the efficacy first reported by the Brazil trial team last week. Researchers from the Butantan Institute in São Paulo had announced on 7 January that the vaccine’s efficacy was 78% at preventing the disease — but revealed this week that the figure was based on the narrow criteria of people needing medical attention. Political considerations aside, that's actually pretty bad news for the many countries in the world that have no prospect of ever getting any of the western vaccines in a timely fashion. The only real options for much of the world are Oxford/AZ, Russia, and China, and one of those options is now on the razor's edge of being completely useless. I actually had high hopes for the Chinese vaccine so this is pretty disappointing. | ||
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BlackJack
United States10574 Posts
On January 15 2021 04:21 TheTenthDoc wrote: Kind of unrelated but this is what breaks my brain about the vitamin D research as a epidemiologist who studies medical treatments-we already know that everyone should have normal levels of vitamin D for any number of health reasons, why spend so much time and energy establishing if COVID is also a problem in the vitamin D deficient? Even if the studies could disentangle common causes of COVID infection and the outcome (for the most part, they utterly fail at this), they don't really teach us anything actionable for public health! Nobody's medical recommendation will change from "don't supplement your vitamin D" to "supplement your vitamin D" in the end based on such work. /end minor rant I don't understand this. You are saying there is nothing actionable if we found a major link between Vitamin D deficiency and COVID severity? How would a campaign to raise public awareness about Vitamin D deficiency not be hugely beneficial if we established such a cause? | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22667 Posts
On January 16 2021 18:15 BlackJack wrote: No, his point is that raising public awareness about Vitamin D deficiency is already something that is hugely beneficial to do without a Covid connection.I don't understand this. You are saying there is nothing actionable if we found a major link between Vitamin D deficiency and COVID severity? How would a campaign to raise public awareness about Vitamin D deficiency not be hugely beneficial if we established such a cause? | ||
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Slydie
2016 Posts
I hope it is possible to get out of this without the hardest lockdowns, the pressure to keep bars, restaurants and schools open is enormous, the political capital might already have been spent. Currently, only outdoor serving is allowed, and only until 18.00, and you can't go outside after 10. The vaccine can't come soon enough, and the effect of "pack immunity" still seems far off, only around 5% of the population has tested positive. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/ | ||
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Simberto
Germany12046 Posts
On January 16 2021 10:57 TheTenthDoc wrote: Just want to point out that some terminally ill people dying right after a vaccine is kind of to be expected-they're terminally ill, after all. Same goes for the ultrafrail-frailty is one of best predictors of short-term mortality. It would be more shocking if nobody fitting that description was dying after getting the vaccine, or if the majority of deaths were concentrated in other patient groups. If you slam the vaccine into as many old people as possible, like most countries, you're going to see a "disproportionate" number of deaths in those groups-even for a perfectly safe vaccine. Will be interesting to see the actual substantive analyses, it's clear from the article they're just getting started. Simple statistics will also lead to a bunch of people dying directly after being vaccinated. In Germany, slightly more than 1% of the population dies every year. This means that on an average day, about 1 in 36500 people dies. If you vaccinate hundreds of thousands or even millions of people, some of them will die on the next day. But the same is true if you take a million people and tape a tiny piece of paper to their forehead. You can do more rigorous analysis looking at subgroups, but that will only enlarge this number, because old people get vaccinated first, and are also more likely to die on any given day compared to the average. | ||
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Slydie
2016 Posts
On January 16 2021 20:20 Simberto wrote: Simple statistics will also lead to a bunch of people dying directly after being vaccinated. In Germany, slightly more than 1% of the population dies every year. This means that on an average day, about 1 in 36500 people dies. If you vaccinate hundreds of thousands or even millions of people, some of them will die on the next day. But the same is true if you take a million people and tape a tiny piece of paper to their forehead. You can do more rigorous analysis looking at subgroups, but that will only enlarge this number, because old people get vaccinated first, and are also more likely to die on any given day compared to the average. That is true, but they did link the deaths to side effects specifically, otherwise they would not have made a thing out of it. I really hope this story stops the policy of giving the vaccine to the oldest and weakest first. They can die from anything and nothing at any time. I don't see the point, even looking at the condition of the elderly in my own family through their last years. Did the healthcare authorities get lost in a sort of sports competition in limiting Covid related deaths at any cost? | ||
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warding
Portugal2397 Posts
On January 16 2021 20:20 Slydie wrote: Just venting a bit. Spain just had 3 days of 30k+ daily cases detected, and the curve goes sharply upwards. It is obviously connected to Christmas celebrations, with 1000+ recent outbreaks rooted in "family" and "social" The Spanish Christmas holiday has 3 important social events, Christmas Eve, New years and the traditional gift giving day "Holy 3 king's day" on the 6th of January. I hope it is possible to get out of this without the hardest lockdowns, the pressure to keep bars, restaurants and schools open is enormous, the political capital might already have been spent. Currently, only outdoor serving is allowed, and only until 18.00, and you can't go outside after 10. The vaccine can't come soon enough, and the effect of "pack immunity" still seems far off, only around 5% of the population has tested positive. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/ Same thing happened here in Portugal with daily cases shooting up to 10k per day (country of 10M) with Xmas. It's funny how culture plays a role here, with Portugal celebrating the 24-25th Dec more and Spain celebrating the 5th of Jan more and thus the increase in cases coming earlier in PT. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Erasme
Bahamas15899 Posts
On January 16 2021 18:01 LegalLord wrote: The more data we get, the less effective the Chinese vaccine appears to be: Political considerations aside, that's actually pretty bad news for the many countries in the world that have no prospect of ever getting any of the western vaccines in a timely fashion. The only real options for much of the world are Oxford/AZ, Russia, and China, and one of those options is now on the razor's edge of being completely useless. I actually had high hopes for the Chinese vaccine so this is pretty disappointing. While going from 90% to 50% is a huge difference, a vaccine at 50% efficacity is still considered a working vaccine as the limit is at 50% afaik. | ||
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Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
That being said, in one study a correlation of vitamin D levels with reduced covid-19 severity/mortality has been discovered. Unfortunately due to a lack of a control group a causal link from vitamin D supplementation is yet unproven. https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/12/16/fact-check-more-study-needed-vitamin-d-deficiency-covid-19/3858758001/ | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On January 16 2021 23:40 Erasme wrote: While going from 90% to 50% is a huge difference, a vaccine at 50% efficacity is still considered a working vaccine as the limit is at 50% afaik. Yes, that's what I mean by "on the razor's edge of being completely useless." I guess that's a little bit of an exaggeration since that's about what flu vaccines offer, but for the coronavirus that is a very low standard of protection. A vaccine that only does that much isn't going to provide any meaningful herd immunity, and at best it's going to protect the direct user from dying - at least until it mutates enough that the vaccine decreases in efficacy. Even the O/AZ vaccine at 62% efficacy is weak enough that there's some question if it's worth using; down at 50 percent seems pretty much disqualifying. | ||
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TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
On January 16 2021 18:52 Gorsameth wrote: No, his point is that raising public awareness about Vitamin D deficiency is already something that is hugely beneficial to do without a Covid connection. Pretty much this. But it's not even just public awareness, it's more that every single person who has Vitamin D deficiency should correct it, full stop. No sane doctor is going to say "well, hmm. Your vitamin D level is low, but I was fine with it before. Now that COVID-19 is out there, you should supplement." It's like studying smoking and COVID-19-smokers should stop for a dozen other well-established reasons. The closest thing to an argument is using COVID-19 as a scare tactic to correct the deficiency, but misleading scare tactics are pretty controversial in public health, and even if it's acceptable it probably doesn't justify the research effort being poured into the vitamin D/COVID-19 linking question. There's also a tiny case for risk assessment and evaluation-kind of like why there were some early studies of smoking and COVID-19, or diabetes and COVID-19-but I feel like that's pretty silly, because at this point we have waaaaay better predictors of how bad someone's case is going to be than any of these things. But most of the research is not being cast that way. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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