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Coronavirus and You - Page 315

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Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control.

It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you.

Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly.

This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here.

Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
December 22 2020 01:13 GMT
#6281
--- Nuked ---
[Phantom]
Profile Blog Joined August 2013
Mexico2170 Posts
December 22 2020 01:27 GMT
#6282
The biggest takeaway of the new strain of COVID is that we didn't learn anything.


About a mount ago I asked here that if we woke up tomorrow and it was January 20 2020, with our current knowledge, would we do things differently? Would we be able to stop the pandemic? A lot of people were optimistic and said that yeah, we could.


But the UK strain apparently exists apparently since September, and it became the dominant strain in late October/early November. UK hasn't banned flights. De countries are starting to do so now.

It's too late at this point. We don't even know if it originated in the UK. We had 9 months to learn. We learned nothing.
WriterTeamLiquid Staff writer since 2014 @Mortal_Phantom
Amui
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada10567 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-12-22 01:45:05
December 22 2020 01:42 GMT
#6283
On December 22 2020 09:53 Sadist wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 22 2020 09:13 m4ini wrote:
On December 22 2020 08:00 Sadist wrote:
Isnt the point of giving the vaccine to healthcare workers first also that they would be less likely to spread it multiple patients? Or is a situation like that pretty much solved now?



If the vaccine works as it's supposed to, it won't prevent the spreading of the virus - it prevents the virus from attacking you. There's no definitive answer, but chances are that you can spread it just as easily.

In regards to something that i initially thought was a no-brainer..

Give it to old people first. Not because of moral reasons, but one simple thing. If you vaccinate the health staff first, and something unforeseen goes wrong - which is entirely possible considering it's the first vaccine of its kind..

It sounds mean, but i'd rather see the vaccine going wrong in old people, than in our main line of defence. Hospitals everywhere getting stretched for resources, you can't afford single nurses/doctors falling ill, let alone all, half, or a quarter of them due to unforeseen consequences.

I'm a bit torn on that one.

Not having enough people working to triage and actually work towards saving patients crushes a healthcare system, especially if you don't have enough people for good continuity of care. A lot of places have had nurses/doctors working 7 days a week, 12-14 hours a day with far higher patient:nurse ratios than under normal conditions. If someone drops out, there is literally no way to replace them.


Correct.

The reality is though that health staff with enough resources doesn't get infected, or at least very rarely gets infected (was different early in the pandemic). I'd argue that for a well trained/equipped nurse/doc, the chances of infection are close to nil - whereas the vaccine is the great unknown.

Sidenote, i don't argue against the vaccine. I just don't think anymore that the health staff getting it first is the absolute correct step.



This part seems odd to me as someone not in the healthcare field. Is this the case for most vaccines? If those who have recovered dont spread the virus why would a person who has had the vaccine spread it?

Way I saw it on reddit was that you can be functionally immune, in that you carry the virus, but it no longer causes harm to you, or else sterilizing immunity, in which your body kills all virus. Sort of like the Europeans entering North America and spreading smallpox and so on to all the natives.

You'll probably be less effective at spreading the virus than a sick patient even if just functionally immune, but there isn't enough research at the moment to say which one is happening at the moment.
Porouscloud - NA LoL
BlackJack
Profile Blog Joined June 2003
United States10574 Posts
December 22 2020 01:42 GMT
#6284
So do other countries have members of their government cutting to the front of the line to get the vaccine or is that only happening here?
WombaT
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Northern Ireland27228 Posts
December 22 2020 01:49 GMT
#6285
On December 22 2020 10:42 BlackJack wrote:
So do other countries have members of their government cutting to the front of the line to get the vaccine or is that only happening here?

Probably, although I think there is probably some benefit to convincing people the vaccine is safe to have prominent politicians taking it. Especially Republicans
'You'll always be the cuddly marsupial of my heart, despite the inherent flaws of your ancestry' - Squat
m4ini
Profile Joined February 2014
4215 Posts
December 22 2020 03:28 GMT
#6286
This part seems odd to me as someone not in the healthcare field. Is this the case for most vaccines? If those who have recovered dont spread the virus why would a person who has had the vaccine spread it?


I'm not from the medical field either, but i've read into how the vaccine works - it's different than your normal flu-vaccine.

A normal vaccine works by injecting a dormant/weak/deactivated germ into your body, to trigger an immune response. The new covid vaccine is an mRNA vaccine - it doesn't contain the virus itself in any shape or form. I don't know exactly how it works, but it teaches your cells to make a certain protein, which then triggers the immune response.

In this case, the instruction is to make the spike protein that Covid19 is using to invade your cells - so our immune system gets primed to that particular part of the virus, its "weapon".

We don't know how well the vaccine works for asymptomatic cases. Indeed, even the Pfizer CEO is on record saying "he doesn't know" whether or not the vaccine curbs transmission.

I think healthcare workers knowing enough to still take precautions after they vaccinate won't be the problem.


Care to explain what that's supposed to mean? No one has experience with mRNA vaccines and their potential downfalls. If they still take precautions after they vaccinate and prevent spread through that, they didn't need the vaccine first anyway. We don't know if asymptomatic infections still are transmittable. That means that nothing changes for frontline workers - except potential side effects that prevent them from going to work.

I'm not saying that my thought is the end all, but "they know what to do" is an incredibly stupid argument. Of course they're still taking precautions, they won't change their current behaviour at all in fact.

There's two ways. Either way won't change their behaviour, or the safety of others in the hospital - most people in hospitals don't get Covid from the nurse, but from constantly touching their face in a building that's full of Covid19, potentially on any guard rail, door, faucet that you touch.

Another thing is: you don't get data if you vaccinate healthcare staff first. The first and most important thing after the rollout of the vaccine is observation whether or not you can still transmit the virus. If you vaccinate people who don't spread it even unvaccinated, you either get no, or worse, wrong data - potentially leading to complacency, having vaccinated people run into care homes, murdering half of the inhabitants.

Healthcare staff being first was the first thing that sprung to my mind as well - because "obviously" you would vaccinate them first. But once you remember that we're talking about injecting our healthcare workers with an entirely new thing, potentially leading to side effects/problems, in a time where every nurse is needed (and general hospital admissions go up due to being winter and stuff) - i don't know. You can replace an average office worker, you can't replace a healthcare worker (or rather, not quickly).

Put this way. Watched "The Martian"? Do you think that if he found a syringe with "experimental DNA juice to potentially make potatoes immune to vacuum", he'd injected his only means of survival?

I wouldn't. I would grow the potatoes the way i know works, because if the DNA juice fails and my potatoes die - i die.
On track to MA1950A.
NewSunshine
Profile Joined July 2011
United States5938 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-12-22 04:01:47
December 22 2020 04:00 GMT
#6287
Of course things change. Precautions aren't foolproof. Healthcare workers know better than anyone else what the risks are, and they're more diligent about taking precautions than most, but they still get hospitalized for it. Your argument hinges on the assumption that no healthcare worker has contracted COVID, which simply isn't true. Giving them the ability to work indefinitely without contracting the virus that a huge number of their patients have is game changing.
"If you find yourself feeling lost, take pride in the accuracy of your feelings." - Night Vale
BlackJack
Profile Blog Joined June 2003
United States10574 Posts
December 22 2020 04:20 GMT
#6288
On December 22 2020 12:28 m4ini wrote:
Show nested quote +
I think healthcare workers knowing enough to still take precautions after they vaccinate won't be the problem.


Care to explain what that's supposed to mean? No one has experience with mRNA vaccines and their potential downfalls. If they still take precautions after they vaccinate and prevent spread through that, they didn't need the vaccine first anyway. We don't know if asymptomatic infections still are transmittable. That means that nothing changes for frontline workers - except potential side effects that prevent them from going to work.


Are you forgetting that the point of the vaccine is to give immunity against severe illness from COVID-19? The big change for frontline workers is they can stop dying from COVID-19, which is an even bigger hinderance to going to work than vaccine side effects.
Magic Powers
Profile Joined April 2012
Austria4478 Posts
December 22 2020 04:31 GMT
#6289
On December 22 2020 09:13 m4ini wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 22 2020 08:00 Sadist wrote:
Isnt the point of giving the vaccine to healthcare workers first also that they would be less likely to spread it multiple patients? Or is a situation like that pretty much solved now?



If the vaccine works as it's supposed to, it won't prevent the spreading of the virus - it prevents the virus from attacking you. There's no definitive answer, but chances are that you can spread it just as easily.

In regards to something that i initially thought was a no-brainer..

Give it to old people first. Not because of moral reasons, but one simple thing. If you vaccinate the health staff first, and something unforeseen goes wrong - which is entirely possible considering it's the first vaccine of its kind..

It sounds mean, but i'd rather see the vaccine going wrong in old people, than in our main line of defence. Hospitals everywhere getting stretched for resources, you can't afford single nurses/doctors falling ill, let alone all, half, or a quarter of them due to unforeseen consequences.

I'm a bit torn on that one.

Show nested quote +
Not having enough people working to triage and actually work towards saving patients crushes a healthcare system, especially if you don't have enough people for good continuity of care. A lot of places have had nurses/doctors working 7 days a week, 12-14 hours a day with far higher patient:nurse ratios than under normal conditions. If someone drops out, there is literally no way to replace them.


Correct.

The reality is though that health staff with enough resources doesn't get infected, or at least very rarely gets infected (was different early in the pandemic). I'd argue that for a well trained/equipped nurse/doc, the chances of infection are close to nil - whereas the vaccine is the great unknown.

Sidenote, i don't argue against the vaccine. I just don't think anymore that the health staff getting it first is the absolute correct step.


If the vaccine works as intended, it will not only make (vaccinated) people immune against the virus, but as a result it'll also reduce the spread. That's because immune people don't get infected, and people who aren't infected don't spread the virus to others. Their antibodies destroy the virus and that means they act like neutral zones.

Also, neither Pfizer nor Moderna have shown to be dangerous to people. The typical side effects can render a person unfit for work for about a day, that's usually it. They don't typically require ER admission or hospitalization. So vaccinating healthcare professionals asap is extremely important because otherwise they'll continue to be superspreaders. Old people have regularly caught covid-19 in the hospital, and we need to prevent that.

Vaccination is not an unknown, I don't know what you're talking about. We know very very well how it works, probably even more than about sars-cov-2 because we've been able to test and observe it in controlled settings.

On December 22 2020 12:28 m4ini wrote:
Show nested quote +
This part seems odd to me as someone not in the healthcare field. Is this the case for most vaccines? If those who have recovered dont spread the virus why would a person who has had the vaccine spread it?


I'm not from the medical field either, but i've read into how the vaccine works - it's different than your normal flu-vaccine.

A normal vaccine works by injecting a dormant/weak/deactivated germ into your body, to trigger an immune response. The new covid vaccine is an mRNA vaccine - it doesn't contain the virus itself in any shape or form. I don't know exactly how it works, but it teaches your cells to make a certain protein, which then triggers the immune response.

In this case, the instruction is to make the spike protein that Covid19 is using to invade your cells - so our immune system gets primed to that particular part of the virus, its "weapon".

We don't know how well the vaccine works for asymptomatic cases. Indeed, even the Pfizer CEO is on record saying "he doesn't know" whether or not the vaccine curbs transmission.

Show nested quote +
I think healthcare workers knowing enough to still take precautions after they vaccinate won't be the problem.


Care to explain what that's supposed to mean? No one has experience with mRNA vaccines and their potential downfalls. If they still take precautions after they vaccinate and prevent spread through that, they didn't need the vaccine first anyway. We don't know if asymptomatic infections still are transmittable. That means that nothing changes for frontline workers - except potential side effects that prevent them from going to work.

I'm not saying that my thought is the end all, but "they know what to do" is an incredibly stupid argument. Of course they're still taking precautions, they won't change their current behaviour at all in fact.

There's two ways. Either way won't change their behaviour, or the safety of others in the hospital - most people in hospitals don't get Covid from the nurse, but from constantly touching their face in a building that's full of Covid19, potentially on any guard rail, door, faucet that you touch.

Another thing is: you don't get data if you vaccinate healthcare staff first. The first and most important thing after the rollout of the vaccine is observation whether or not you can still transmit the virus. If you vaccinate people who don't spread it even unvaccinated, you either get no, or worse, wrong data - potentially leading to complacency, having vaccinated people run into care homes, murdering half of the inhabitants.

Healthcare staff being first was the first thing that sprung to my mind as well - because "obviously" you would vaccinate them first. But once you remember that we're talking about injecting our healthcare workers with an entirely new thing, potentially leading to side effects/problems, in a time where every nurse is needed (and general hospital admissions go up due to being winter and stuff) - i don't know. You can replace an average office worker, you can't replace a healthcare worker (or rather, not quickly).

Put this way. Watched "The Martian"? Do you think that if he found a syringe with "experimental DNA juice to potentially make potatoes immune to vacuum", he'd injected his only means of survival?

I wouldn't. I would grow the potatoes the way i know works, because if the DNA juice fails and my potatoes die - i die.


The Pfizer vaccine contains mRNA which enters the host's cells, which then produce a spike protein, which the host then produces antibodies against, of which some will stick around after the spike protein has been removed, and in an ideal case the host would also be able to remember how to produce the right antibodies later (hopefully years later) in case of another sars-cov-2 attack on the host.
We already know that Pfizer offers immunity seven days after the second dose. This means we know that it does reduce the spread, because that's an effect of immunity - immune people don't spread the virus. Of course there's always a non-zero chance that they'd spread the virus anyway, but that's a statistical unicorn that can and should be neglected when it comes to policy.
If you want to do the right thing, 80% of your job is done if you don't do the wrong thing.
BlackJack
Profile Blog Joined June 2003
United States10574 Posts
December 22 2020 07:34 GMT
#6290
"The early bird gets the worm but the 2nd mouse gets the cheese" is advice I follow very closely. I was planning to wait a couple weeks before getting the vaccine just to be safe. With 20,000 in the clinical trials and hundreds of thousands more getting their shot last week I'm sufficiently satisfied. Now waiting just increases my chances that COVID gets me first. I just rescheduled my appointment time to get vaccinated to tomorrow. We'll see how it goes.
Sirion
Profile Joined August 2010
131 Posts
December 22 2020 07:54 GMT
#6291

If the vaccine works as intended, it will not only make (vaccinated) people immune against the virus, but as a result it'll also reduce the spread. That's because immune people don't get infected, and people who aren't infected don't spread the virus to others.

This is not quite true. What you describe is sterilizing immunity, which the vaccines might not achieve(we do not know). That means vaccinated people might still get infected, and can be infectious themselves. Presumably at a reduced level, both in term of infectiousness and in terms of number of days when such a person is infectious. In particular vulnerable people who cannot be vaccinated still need to be careful.
Magic Powers
Profile Joined April 2012
Austria4478 Posts
December 22 2020 11:21 GMT
#6292
On December 22 2020 16:54 Sirion wrote:
Show nested quote +

If the vaccine works as intended, it will not only make (vaccinated) people immune against the virus, but as a result it'll also reduce the spread. That's because immune people don't get infected, and people who aren't infected don't spread the virus to others.

This is not quite true. What you describe is sterilizing immunity, which the vaccines might not achieve(we do not know). That means vaccinated people might still get infected, and can be infectious themselves. Presumably at a reduced level, both in term of infectiousness and in terms of number of days when such a person is infectious. In particular vulnerable people who cannot be vaccinated still need to be careful.


Immunity implies that you don't spread the virus, because immunity means that the host produces/has antibodies that fight the virus so there's not a sufficient quantity of the virus in the host's body that could spread to others and infect them. If the virus doesn't get a chance to multiply in meaningful quantities inside the host, then the host is a non-spreader.
And it is known that the Pfizer vaccine offers immunity seven days after the second dose.
https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/clinical-areas/immunology-and-vaccines/pfizer-vaccine-gives-immunity-seven-days-after-second-dose-says-advisory-body/
If you want to do the right thing, 80% of your job is done if you don't do the wrong thing.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22487 Posts
December 22 2020 11:25 GMT
#6293
On December 22 2020 10:27 [Phantom] wrote:
The biggest takeaway of the new strain of COVID is that we didn't learn anything.


About a mount ago I asked here that if we woke up tomorrow and it was January 20 2020, with our current knowledge, would we do things differently? Would we be able to stop the pandemic? A lot of people were optimistic and said that yeah, we could.


But the UK strain apparently exists apparently since September, and it became the dominant strain in late October/early November. UK hasn't banned flights. De countries are starting to do so now.

It's too late at this point. We don't even know if it originated in the UK. We had 9 months to learn. We learned nothing.
Our knowledge is not the problem, people's stupidity is and we don't like to change our habits. Especially when its something silent and invisible like a virus. Unless you go to a Covid ward where people are trying to hang on to life your not seeing the effects, and that makes it all the easier to ignore.

Add that this has been going on for more then half a year and people simple become more and more lacks.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
pmh
Profile Joined March 2016
1416 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-12-22 12:20:55
December 22 2020 12:01 GMT
#6294
Its not a matter of our stupidity either. Its a matter of our prioritys and the choises we make.

Its waiting for the vaccinations. And then we have to see if the vaccine beats the virus (it will it seems) and after that if the virus will evententually be able to beat the vaccines (possible but far from certain).
And if the later then how long that will take,what consequences it will have for the the virus and if we can beat the virus again with our vaccines after it. (very likely yes to the last point).

Lockdowns and restrictions are the short term solution and the vaccine is the mid term solution.
In the long run humans will always win,if only by natural selection,but it might take a while.
(which is also why now i think that in the long run the aproach of the west is better then the aproach of china/asia. Earlier this year i thought asias aproach was better but my opinion about this has changed now).
An everlasting race of arms,similar to the yearly flu. Not only between the vaccines and the virus but in the long run also ,and maybe even more importantly in this situation, between our immune system and the virus.

Our immune system is slower to adept biologically but our adeptions are more powerfull because we have far more options. The options for the virus to adept come much faster but they are also much smaller,its a rather simple mechanic compared to our imune system with in the end more limited options to adept.

The flu now is far less deadly then it was 100 and more years ago even without taking into account vaccinations. And there are more examples similar to the flue. In the long run this virus will eventually be beaten by our immune system as well.

The reason our imune system has not beaten some of the other diseases is because we have managed to keep those diseases under control by other means,essentially halting the adeptation of our immune system. More or less preventing the process of natural selection which would be very painfull when it comes to severe diseases.

"The early bird gets the worm but the 2nd mouse gets the cheese" i never heard this one before but its a funny one.

Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain18387 Posts
December 22 2020 15:27 GMT
#6295
On December 22 2020 21:01 pmh wrote:
Its not a matter of our stupidity either. Its a matter of our prioritys and the choises we make.

Its waiting for the vaccinations. And then we have to see if the vaccine beats the virus (it will it seems) and after that if the virus will evententually be able to beat the vaccines (possible but far from certain).
And if the later then how long that will take,what consequences it will have for the the virus and if we can beat the virus again with our vaccines after it. (very likely yes to the last point).

Lockdowns and restrictions are the short term solution and the vaccine is the mid term solution.
In the long run humans will always win,if only by natural selection,but it might take a while.
(which is also why now i think that in the long run the aproach of the west is better then the aproach of china/asia. Earlier this year i thought asias aproach was better but my opinion about this has changed now).
An everlasting race of arms,similar to the yearly flu. Not only between the vaccines and the virus but in the long run also ,and maybe even more importantly in this situation, between our immune system and the virus.

Our immune system is slower to adept biologically but our adeptions are more powerfull because we have far more options. The options for the virus to adept come much faster but they are also much smaller,its a rather simple mechanic compared to our imune system with in the end more limited options to adept.

The flu now is far less deadly then it was 100 and more years ago even without taking into account vaccinations. And there are more examples similar to the flue. In the long run this virus will eventually be beaten by our immune system as well.

The reason our imune system has not beaten some of the other diseases is because we have managed to keep those diseases under control by other means,essentially halting the adeptation of our immune system. More or less preventing the process of natural selection which would be very painfull when it comes to severe diseases.

"The early bird gets the worm but the 2nd mouse gets the cheese" i never heard this one before but its a funny one.



Well, that's nonsense. Your child's immune system does not inherit everything yours learned (or what the mother's learned). It has to start from essentially zero. So unless you are arguing humanity evolved better immune responses to the flu in the last 100ish years, you are talking nonsense.

The main reason flu is less deadly, in addition to vaccines, of course, is because of our improved hygene.
pmh
Profile Joined March 2016
1416 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-12-22 15:59:09
December 22 2020 15:45 GMT
#6296
It does inherit the genes from the parents,and with that the genes that make up our immune system.
Genes for immune systems which are better able to deal with the virus have an advantage.

This process is rather slow though and there is more to evolution then the rather slow process of classic natural selection which can not fully explain the speed of some adaptations that have happend in the history of nature.
How it exactly works is yet unknown but our genes and immune system can indeed "learn" and adapt to deal with new challenges.
Not only randomly and by the process of natural selecion,but also what seems to be willingly into a certain favorable direction (possibly tied to emergent properties).

Improved hygene effects the number of people infected and not so much the severity of the disease itself. (besides for the general positive effects on health that come with improved hygene).
Our resistance against the flu has definitely improved over the years. Similar to how we became more resistant to certain diseases in the 17th century which where deadly at first for people living in colonys that where conquered.
The immune system of people living in those former colonys also adepted eventually to deal with those new diseases brought by the explorers/colonists.
Racket
Profile Joined July 2013
3023 Posts
December 22 2020 16:28 GMT
#6297
I worked for a long time in an analysis of the situation and numbers of Germany. If you want to have a look and give feedback, it will be appreciated.
I am working now on mortality statistics, sadly Germany publishes data a year later and many relevant analysis have to wait.

Here the link to the post, in there you will find the PDF version:
https://ferraronga.wixsite.com/gimmesometruth/post/en-information-politic

There are some more things I wrote, if you have time after going through 30 pages. All documents can be found in English, German and Spanish.
BlackJack
Profile Blog Joined June 2003
United States10574 Posts
December 22 2020 20:51 GMT
#6298
On December 22 2020 20:25 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 22 2020 10:27 [Phantom] wrote:
The biggest takeaway of the new strain of COVID is that we didn't learn anything.


About a mount ago I asked here that if we woke up tomorrow and it was January 20 2020, with our current knowledge, would we do things differently? Would we be able to stop the pandemic? A lot of people were optimistic and said that yeah, we could.


But the UK strain apparently exists apparently since September, and it became the dominant strain in late October/early November. UK hasn't banned flights. De countries are starting to do so now.

It's too late at this point. We don't even know if it originated in the UK. We had 9 months to learn. We learned nothing.
Our knowledge is not the problem, people's stupidity is and we don't like to change our habits. Especially when its something silent and invisible like a virus. Unless you go to a Covid ward where people are trying to hang on to life your not seeing the effects, and that makes it all the easier to ignore.

Add that this has been going on for more then half a year and people simple become more and more lacks.


I would say our knowledge of COVID is a huge part of the problem for people's non-compliance. Back in March when the first lockdowns went into place most people were on board with the shelter in place orders. Then someone let the cat out of the bag that the WHO's initial estimates of 3-4% IFR were off and the real number was probably around 1% and suddenly "flatten the curve" became "let's not leave our houses until a vaccine is ready." Also people figured out that hospitals were in fact not being overrun with COVID patients anywhere in the US outside of NY/New Jersey. Sure there are a lot of people that are willfully ignorant about COVID and believe it's all a hoax but that tends to happen when your livelihood relies on it being a hoax. Desperate people will lie to themselves about anything.

The idea that we've learned nothing from this and we are no better adept at dealing with a pandemic can't be proven until we get the next pandemic that is even more deadly than COVID. COVID so far has killed 1.5-2milion people. That's somewhere in the ballpark of 0.02% - 0.03% of the world population. Now we have a vaccine being deployed and hopefully an end in sight. That's a staggeringly small number in the history of human pandemics. In a history book on deaths from disease and famine, COVID-19 would not even be a footnote. The only remarkable thing about this plague is how quickly we developed the vaccine for it.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22487 Posts
December 22 2020 21:39 GMT
#6299
On December 23 2020 05:51 BlackJack wrote:"flatten the curve" became "let's not leave our houses until a vaccine is ready."
And there goes anything you say out the window.

No, this was never a thing. Just BS people claimed when they ran out of ways to attack people saying Covid was real.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Slydie
Profile Joined August 2013
1990 Posts
December 22 2020 21:42 GMT
#6300
On December 23 2020 05:51 BlackJack wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 22 2020 20:25 Gorsameth wrote:
On December 22 2020 10:27 [Phantom] wrote:
The biggest takeaway of the new strain of COVID is that we didn't learn anything.


About a mount ago I asked here that if we woke up tomorrow and it was January 20 2020, with our current knowledge, would we do things differently? Would we be able to stop the pandemic? A lot of people were optimistic and said that yeah, we could.


But the UK strain apparently exists apparently since September, and it became the dominant strain in late October/early November. UK hasn't banned flights. De countries are starting to do so now.

It's too late at this point. We don't even know if it originated in the UK. We had 9 months to learn. We learned nothing.
Our knowledge is not the problem, people's stupidity is and we don't like to change our habits. Especially when its something silent and invisible like a virus. Unless you go to a Covid ward where people are trying to hang on to life your not seeing the effects, and that makes it all the easier to ignore.

Add that this has been going on for more then half a year and people simple become more and more lacks.


I would say our knowledge of COVID is a huge part of the problem for people's non-compliance. Back in March when the first lockdowns went into place most people were on board with the shelter in place orders. Then someone let the cat out of the bag that the WHO's initial estimates of 3-4% IFR were off and the real number was probably around 1% and suddenly "flatten the curve" became "let's not leave our houses until a vaccine is ready." Also people figured out that hospitals were in fact not being overrun with COVID patients anywhere in the US outside of NY/New Jersey. Sure there are a lot of people that are willfully ignorant about COVID and believe it's all a hoax but that tends to happen when your livelihood relies on it being a hoax. Desperate people will lie to themselves about anything.

The idea that we've learned nothing from this and we are no better adept at dealing with a pandemic can't be proven until we get the next pandemic that is even more deadly than COVID. COVID so far has killed 1.5-2milion people. That's somewhere in the ballpark of 0.02% - 0.03% of the world population. Now we have a vaccine being deployed and hopefully an end in sight. That's a staggeringly small number in the history of human pandemics. In a history book on deaths from disease and famine, COVID-19 would not even be a footnote. The only remarkable thing about this plague is how quickly we developed the vaccine for it.


It is not over yet, I will not try to suggest a final number of deaths, but I am fairly confident it will be considerably lower than the ones for cancer (~9 million/year) and cardiovascular diseases (17+ million per year.)

However, the economic, cultural, social, political, psycological and other impacts of this pandemic are already absolutely massive. It has already been suggested as a main reason why Trump lost the election. Was it the final turning point where the US can no longer be considered a lone superpower? Will the global balance of power shift? Will there be longterm changes in how we work and interact? Will even more of the economy and social lives move online? What about the philosopical and moral aspects, will the excessive deaths this year in certain countries be evened out over the next few years? Was saving the lives of mainly old and/or sick people really worth it?

It could end up being one of the major events of this century.
Buff the siegetank
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