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Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control.
It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you.
Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly.
This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here.
Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. |
pmh, that's not how antibodies work.
Some parts of your immune system might have evolved to dealing with stuff better, like the innate one and certain antigen presenting subsets, or some might even be better at fighting cancer.
However, I think there could be a case made for us not having the optimal natural selection criteria anymore simply because of all the advances in (medical) technology over the last 100 years, which won't do us any good for human evolution as a whole. Even though we keep reproducing, we might not actually be getting more fit.
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It's extremely easy to make the argument that humans are not becoming more evolutionarily fit.
However, that also relies on the (flawed) presupposition that evolution doesn't include the intellectual and technological advances that our species is capable of.
Side note: I got the vaccine today. The fluid dose is so small I literally didn't even feel it.
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On December 23 2020 06:39 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On December 23 2020 05:51 BlackJack wrote:"flatten the curve" became "let's not leave our houses until a vaccine is ready." And there goes anything you say out the window. No, this was never a thing. Just BS people claimed when they ran out of ways to attack people saying Covid was real.
What wasn't a thing? "Flatten the Curve" was definitely a thing. It was probably trending on Twitter for a while. I live in California. Disneyland has been closed since March. Indoor dining, gyms, movies, salons, etc. have been closed in most of the Bay Area for nearly the entire year except for a few months in late summer/Fall. It's not that people are non-compliant, because anyone living here in March/April knows what it was like when the first shelter in place orders took effect and everyone was on board.
Here's the chart of California's daily COVID-cases.
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/9NikeTX.png)
California has basically been trying to prevent this wave for 9 months and now it's becoming more and more obvious that they have failed. The only thing they managed to achieve is giving their population pandemic-fatigue where everyone is now so sick of it that when we really need them to listen and shelter-in-place they are over it and not going to comply.
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I didn't think I would need to be that specific. How about the other half of the sentence?
"let's not leave our houses until a vaccine is ready."
This was never a thing. No one talked about not leaving the house until a vaccine.
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I didn't think that would be taken literally. Yes it's a hyperbole, but the point still stands that the temporary "stop the surge" "flatten the curve" idea became something more permanent when the movies/gyms were still closed many months after the first shelter-in-place orders.
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On December 23 2020 08:22 BlackJack wrote:
I didn't think that would be taken literally. Yes it's a hyperbole, but the point still stands that the temporary "stop the surge" "flatten the curve" idea became something more permanent when the movies/gyms were still closed many months after the first shelter-in-place orders. Because most of America did a terrible job at managing the virus and it never really died down. As one part died down others flared up.
Europe didn't have that issue and was able to open up for a while (and now its all closing down again)
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On December 23 2020 08:25 JimmiC wrote:
Did you consider that the healthcare system was stressed at those levels and because it was not dropping they maintained?
Nonsense. I don't know why this myth persists. In the Spring and early Summer people were avoiding hospitals, elective surgeries were cancelled, entire hospital wings were being closed, doctors and nurses were being put on leave or laid off. Very very few hospitals in the entire country were on the verge of being overrun, the vast majority were losing money because they had no customers.
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On December 23 2020 09:15 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On December 23 2020 08:25 JimmiC wrote:
Did you consider that the healthcare system was stressed at those levels and because it was not dropping they maintained? Nonsense. I don't know why this myth persists. In the Spring and early Summer people were avoiding hospitals, elective surgeries were cancelled, entire hospital wings were being closed, doctors and nurses were being put on leave or laid off. Very very few hospitals in the entire country were on the verge of being overrun, the vast majority were losing money because they had no customers.
This is only true for specific regions.
New York was being utterly crushed by patient volume back then.
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On December 23 2020 09:27 Stratos_speAr wrote:Show nested quote +On December 23 2020 09:15 BlackJack wrote:On December 23 2020 08:25 JimmiC wrote:
Did you consider that the healthcare system was stressed at those levels and because it was not dropping they maintained? Nonsense. I don't know why this myth persists. In the Spring and early Summer people were avoiding hospitals, elective surgeries were cancelled, entire hospital wings were being closed, doctors and nurses were being put on leave or laid off. Very very few hospitals in the entire country were on the verge of being overrun, the vast majority were losing money because they had no customers. This is only true for specific regions. New York was being utterly crushed by patient volume back then.
The opposite was true for a few specific areas. There were a few hot spots in NY, New Jersey, Detroit, New Orleans, Chicago, etc. but for the most part the vast majority of hospitals were massively below census.
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On December 23 2020 09:16 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On December 23 2020 09:15 BlackJack wrote:On December 23 2020 08:25 JimmiC wrote:
Did you consider that the healthcare system was stressed at those levels and because it was not dropping they maintained? Nonsense. I don't know why this myth persists. In the Spring and early Summer people were avoiding hospitals, elective surgeries were cancelled, entire hospital wings were being closed, doctors and nurses were being put on leave or laid off. Very very few hospitals in the entire country were on the verge of being overrun, the vast majority were losing money because they had no customers. Source please. And why were they canceling electives then?
There's countless sources I could provide, I was also posting about this happening in real time in this very thread back in April, you can probably find many of my posts there. I posted in this thread on April 2 that the shelter-in-place in California wasn't actually accomplishing anything and all it was doing was "kicking the can down the road" where we would get our surge of deaths later in the year unless we stayed locked down until the vaccine. California is now spiraling out of control, ICU beds are running out, and LA looks like it is going to be the next "new york." At the risk of sounding boastful, I have to say I pretty much predicted it.
But as for actual sources, there are many you can find if you used advanced google search for the time frames of March 10 to June 1. I think generally hospitals were seeing about one-half the patient load they had were seeing the same time last year.
"‘Where are the patients?’ People are avoiding doctors, hospitals because of coronavirus worries"
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/patients-are-delaying-care-at-what-price/
"COVID-19 Fears Are Making People Avoid Medical Care, Vaccinations"
http://www.bu.edu/articles/2020/coronavirus-update-04-24-2020/
"Doctors worry the coronavirus is keeping patients away from US hospitals as ER visits drop: ‘Heart attacks don’t stop’"
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/doctors-worry-the-coronavirus-is-keeping-patients-away-from-us-hospitals-as-er-visits-drop-heart-attacks-dont-stop.html
Again, this is for outside of New York and a few other hotspots.
Perhaps even better evidence comes from this NPR article
https://www.npr.org/2020/05/08/852435761/as-hospitals-lose-revenue-thousands-of-health-care-workers-face-furloughs-layoff
And 1.4 million health care workers lost their jobs in April, a sharp increase from the 42,000 reported in March, according to the Labor Department. Nearly 135,000 of the April losses were in hospitals.
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As for "why" hospitals would cancel elective surgeries if half their hospital was sitting empty and their OR staffs were being furloughed: The answer is simply that nobody knew what we were dealing with at the time. All we saw was Spain, Italy, New York, Wuhan, getting ravaged and everyone was preparing for the worst. I don't even think it was a bad idea to have the first restrictions that were put into place in March for 2 reasons: 1) PPE was in short supply and we needed to buy time for production to catch up and 2) We should learn more about what we are dealing with before marching ahead. My criticism is that once it became obvious that we were presently not at risk of being overrun we should have been quicker to start opening back up with preventative measures like social distancing, masks, etc. Instead we sat on our hands for a few months and used up all the good will of the people to comply with what was asked of them.
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Sadly for people like that no evidence is enough. The only way to change their view is for them or their lvoed ones get really sick/die. You can flood them with data but they will still claim is falisifed/misleading/doesnt matter.
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On December 24 2020 01:22 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On December 23 2020 15:43 BlackJack wrote:On December 23 2020 09:16 JimmiC wrote:On December 23 2020 09:15 BlackJack wrote:On December 23 2020 08:25 JimmiC wrote:
Did you consider that the healthcare system was stressed at those levels and because it was not dropping they maintained? Nonsense. I don't know why this myth persists. In the Spring and early Summer people were avoiding hospitals, elective surgeries were cancelled, entire hospital wings were being closed, doctors and nurses were being put on leave or laid off. Very very few hospitals in the entire country were on the verge of being overrun, the vast majority were losing money because they had no customers. Source please. And why were they canceling electives then? There's countless sources I could provide, I was also posting about this happening in real time in this very thread back in April, you can probably find many of my posts there. I posted in this thread on April 2 that the shelter-in-place in California wasn't actually accomplishing anything and all it was doing was "kicking the can down the road" where we would get our surge of deaths later in the year unless we stayed locked down until the vaccine. California is now spiraling out of control, ICU beds are running out, and LA looks like it is going to be the next "new york." At the risk of sounding boastful, I have to say I pretty much predicted it. But as for actual sources, there are many you can find if you used advanced google search for the time frames of March 10 to June 1. I think generally hospitals were seeing about one-half the patient load they had were seeing the same time last year. "‘Where are the patients?’ People are avoiding doctors, hospitals because of coronavirus worries" https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/patients-are-delaying-care-at-what-price/"COVID-19 Fears Are Making People Avoid Medical Care, Vaccinations" http://www.bu.edu/articles/2020/coronavirus-update-04-24-2020/"Doctors worry the coronavirus is keeping patients away from US hospitals as ER visits drop: ‘Heart attacks don’t stop’" https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/doctors-worry-the-coronavirus-is-keeping-patients-away-from-us-hospitals-as-er-visits-drop-heart-attacks-dont-stop.htmlAgain, this is for outside of New York and a few other hotspots. Perhaps even better evidence comes from this NPR article https://www.npr.org/2020/05/08/852435761/as-hospitals-lose-revenue-thousands-of-health-care-workers-face-furloughs-layoffAnd 1.4 million health care workers lost their jobs in April, a sharp increase from the 42,000 reported in March, according to the Labor Department. Nearly 135,000 of the April losses were in hospitals. Your post is just a massive example of confirmation bias and you more or less explain that now. Back in April you also did not talk about stress on the health care system and it is not surging now because the put in place measure then. It is because to many people ignored the measures and continue too. But as pointed out no amount of evidence will change minds that are already stuck at a conclusion. Edit: So I looked up Cali response and it is not what you say, first there was issues with the hospitalizations and you have to stop it early because there is a lag time (around 2 weeks) between when you put on measures and when they help, it is also not a straight line. Show nested quote +At the start of 2020, California had 416 hospitals, yielding a statewide capacity of about 78,000 beds.[195] In mid-March, 2020, when the state was preparing for a surge of COVID-19 cases, Newsom submitted an unfulfilled request for 10,000 ventilators from the federal government.[195] The state government continued to acquire ventilators, but was able to flatten the curve enough that on April 6, 2020, California donated 500 ventilators to the Strategic National Stockpile for use in other states.[196] As of July 13, 2020, hospitals statewide report that 36% of ICU beds were available still, as were 72% of ventilators. However, the hardest-hit counties were quickly reaching capacity, and reportedly borrowing ventilators from neighboring hospitals to meet demand.[197] Next the government did not cancel electives. So if hospitals were doing that, it was because they thought they needed too. Keep in mind that Covid hospitalizations take up way more space because of the contagious nature. + Show Spoiler +March 4, 2020 State of emergency declared.
March 12, 2020 Mass gatherings (over 250 people) and social gatherings (over 10 people) banned.
March 19, 2020 State-wide stay-at-home order issued.
March 24, 2020 Intakes in prisons and juvenile correction centers postponed.
April 1, 2020 Closure of all public and private schools (including institutions of higher education) ordered for the remainder of the 2019–2020 academic year.
April 9, 2020 State offered to pay hotel room costs for hospital and other essential workers afraid of returning home and infecting family members.
April 24, 2020 Program to deliver free meals to elderly residents announced.
April 29, 2020 Expansion of the state's Farm to Family program (which helps connect farmers to food banks) announced.
May 6, 2020 Worker's compensation extended for all workers who contracted COVID-19 during the state's stay-at-home order.
May 6, 2020 Property tax penalties waived for residents and small businesses that have been negatively affected by the pandemic.
May 7, 2020 State entered Stage 2 of its 4-stage reopening roadmap.
May 8, 2020 Executive order signed that would send every registered voter a mail-in ballot for the general election.
May 18, 2020 Businesses that are part of Stage 3 allowed to reopen.
May 26, 2020 Hair service businesses allowed to reopen (with restrictions).
June 18, 2020 Universal masking guidance issued by Department of Public Health.
June 28, 2020 Bars ordered to close in several counties.
July 1, 2020 Most indoor businesses, including restaurants, wineries, and movie theaters ordered to close in several counties.
July 13, 2020 Closure of gyms, indoor dining, bars, movie theaters, and museums re-imposed.
August 28, 2020 Unveiled a new set of guidelines for lifting restrictions, titled a "Blueprint for a Safer Economy".
August 31, 2020 BSE county-level restrictions take effect. See below for initial classifications. More than 80% of population is under "Widespread" restrictions.
September 29, 2020 Majority of population now under "Substantial" or lower BSE restrictions.[A]
November 10, 2020 Majority of population back up to "Widespread" BSE restrictions.[A]
November 21, 2020 Nighttime curfew implemented for counties under "Widespread" BSE restrictions.
December 3, 2020 Regional stay-at-home order announced.
So you asked for a source and after I provided you with several you just dismiss it as confirmation bias? You didn't refute anything I said. In fact you posted about California having so many ventilators they didn't need that they were giving them away to the national stockpile. What side of this argument are you on?
Also not sure what you mean by "you didn't talk about stress on the healthcare system." I think it can be inferred from my posts that there was not much stress on the healthcare system. There might have been some in Los Angeles, but where I live in the San Francisco Bay there was not much at all. Most hospital admissions come through the Emergency Department and if the ED is getting less than 50% of it's normal case load then it means the rest of the hospital isn't busy either.
Hell, despite all the sources I have provided there is also the mountain of first-hand experience that I have. I know several healthcare workers that started collecting unemployment and I know one that started driving for doordash. Again I posted about this in real-time back in April:
On April 22 2020 07:44 BlackJack wrote:
I know many nurses that are at home collecting unemployment checks right now. My girlfriend has been getting paid to sit at home and watch netflix for the last 3 weeks because she has been called-off every shift she was scheduled for. They still have me coming in the emergency room but things have been so dead I've basically been sitting around and talking/joking with coworkers for my shift. Someone set up a gofundme to provide food for ERs/ICUs in my area and they've been delivering 40 individualized meals to us every shift. It's like I'm getting paid to have weird social gatherings with my coworkers and eat free food.
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Some stats from BC about our covid update/schools.
We've had ~4 months of school since schools reopened:
https://news.gov.bc.ca/files/COVID19_Monthly_Update_Dec_2020.pdf
1/100 children in BC has been tested for covid.
~7/100 tests are positive for covid
~7/1000 students have tested positive for covid in the last 4 months.
3/4 schools have not had an exposure.
Just for perspective on whether or not schools need to be handled separately/closed.
We've done a mediocre job handling covid the last few months, but we've done enough that I think the decision to keep schools open was a reasonable one.
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There's a phenomenon of infections going up and deaths not rising proportionally. This is in response to BlackJack's and JimmiC's discussion.
The phenomenon has been observed in various countries like the UK, Italy, France, Spain, NL, Ireland, Canada, and some states in the US like NY, NJ and MA, just to name a few examples. In Sweden deaths have even gone down while infections were still going up https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ (that may've happened in a number of countries, but I haven't looked into it in such detail). It's a widespread phenomenon that you can observe on worldometers.
But not all countries follow this trend. Germany, Austria, Hungary, Romania, Poland, Turkey, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, Japan, India, Pakistan, many states in the US., and many more countries show a significant correlation between infections and deaths.
And then there's deaths per million and CFR, which also vary dramatically between different countries. Another mystery that needs explanation.
The point being that it's difficult to know the causes for the various observations in things like hospitalization rates, ER admission rates, etc. We just don't have the answers yet.
Here's information on CFR for various countries.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105914/coronavirus-death-rates-worldwide/
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EPT
