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Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. |
Would like to correct something in my comment: that Minnesota biotech firm (Imanis Life Sciences) is developing neutralizing antibody tests, not antigen tests. The former detects active immunity, the latter doesn't.
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The top level responses in this reddit thread answer the immunity/lasting immunity question fairly well I think:
+ Show Spoiler +Very roughly, 1 in 10,000. This recent paper determined about 2 in 10,000:
Results: Out of 133,266 laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases, 243 persons (0.18%) had at least one subsequent positive swab ≥45 days after the first-positive swab. Of these, 54 cases (22.2%) had strong or good evidence for reinfection.… No deaths were recorded. Viral genome sequencing confirmed four reinfections out of 12 cases with available genetic evidence. Reinfection risk was estimated at 0.02% (95% CI: 0.01-0.02%) and reinfection incidence rate at 0.36 (95% CI: 0.28-0.47) per 10,000 person-weeks.
—Assessment of the risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in an intense re-exposure setting
But that was in an “intense re-exposure setting”:
Considering the strength of the force of infection, estimated at a daily probability of infection exceeding 1% at the epidemic peak around May 20, it is all but certain that a significant proportion of the population has been repeatedly exposed to the infection, but such re-exposures hardly led to any documentable reinfections.
so I think half that is more likely for normal scenarios.
Also:
None were severe, critical, or fatal; all reinfections were asymptomatic or with minimal or mild symptoms. These findings may suggest that most infected persons appear to develop immunity against reinfection that lasts for at least few months, and that reinfections (if they occur) are well tolerated and no more symptomatic than primary infections.
And one incidental observation:
Comparing these incidence rates suggest that the “efficacy” of natural infection against reinfection is around 1–10/200 =~ 95%.
The 95% natural immunity is strikingly similar to the vaccine immunity we’re seeing with Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna.
https://www.reddit.com/r/askscience/comments/kgtz3k/how_common_is_covid19_reinfection_are_there_any/
Also, in countries where the incidence rate of covid is less than 5% across the population and spread is well controlled, I don't think testing is of huge benefit compared with blindly immunizing everyone. The extra administrative work to verify immunity/prior infection isn't worth it compared to just ensuring they're still well protected.
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do you have a quarantine in your state?
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On December 20 2020 01:58 Artisreal wrote:Aaand switzerland approve the Biontech vaccine. idk if we ever get vivax back in the thread, just felt like following up on the geneticist's twitter thread he posted. Show nested quote +
Thanks to the rolling procedure and our flexibly organised teams, we nevertheless managed to reach a decision quickly – while also fully satisfying the three most important requirements of safety, efficacy and quality.
SourceI have to say that this is entirely out of my field and this is not intended as a gotcha in any sort of way. I fully condone scientific discourse and disagreement. It should serve as an incentive to communicate accurately and as simple as possible.
EMA wants to release their recommendations today (finally!)
Here is to hoping we can start next Monday at the latest
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The situation is very serious,its important to speed up vaccinations and vaccine production as much as possible.
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If the strain is still only detected in the UK, I'd imagine one option that would help would be for the EU and US to help and direct their vaccine stocks to the UK to try to get everyone in the target areas vaccinated ASAP to contain it.
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I found this outside look at the Covid responses in Europe interresting:
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/20/europe/europe-covid-restrictions/index.html
There is a special focus on Finland and Norway here, trying to explain why the 2 countries have done so well, seemingly with more relaxed measures than other countries. There is no one simple reason, but being situated in the corners of Europe, being sparsely populated, having fewer large cities and competent goverments people trust seems most important to me.
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On December 21 2020 21:48 warding wrote:
If the strain is still only detected in the UK, I'd imagine one option that would help would be for the EU and US to help and direct their vaccine stocks to the UK to try to get everyone in the target areas vaccinated ASAP to contain it. Apparently 3 cases in Denmark, some in Belgium and at least 1 in the Netherlands.
Source in Dutch. www.nu.nl
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On December 21 2020 22:20 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2020 21:48 warding wrote:
If the strain is still only detected in the UK, I'd imagine one option that would help would be for the EU and US to help and direct their vaccine stocks to the UK to try to get everyone in the target areas vaccinated ASAP to contain it. Apparently 3 cases in Denmark, some in Belgium and at least 1 in the Netherlands. Source in Dutch. www.nu.nl
Then, uhm... that leaves us the option of just surrendering? I mean, an increase in R between 0.4 and 0.9 means that either we go into a very very strict lockdown again or the virus runs rampant. What's going to happen? :S
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On December 21 2020 22:28 warding wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2020 22:20 Gorsameth wrote:On December 21 2020 21:48 warding wrote:
If the strain is still only detected in the UK, I'd imagine one option that would help would be for the EU and US to help and direct their vaccine stocks to the UK to try to get everyone in the target areas vaccinated ASAP to contain it. Apparently 3 cases in Denmark, some in Belgium and at least 1 in the Netherlands. Source in Dutch. www.nu.nl Then, uhm... that leaves us the option of just surrendering? I mean, an increase in R between 0.4 and 0.9 means that either we go into a very very strict lockdown again or the virus runs rampant. What's going to happen? :S Netherlands is already in a strict lockdown similar to what we did back in March, but that was mostly because people were not listening and lesser measures simply didn't work.
Not because of a new strain as far as we know.
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On December 21 2020 23:47 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2020 22:01 Slydie wrote:I found this outside look at the Covid responses in Europe interresting: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/20/europe/europe-covid-restrictions/index.htmlThere is a special focus on Finland and Norway here, trying to explain why the 2 countries have done so well, seemingly with more relaxed measures than other countries. There is no one simple reason, but being situated in the corners of Europe, being sparsely populated, having fewer large cities and competent goverments people trust seems most important to me. The competent governments that people trust is the huge one. There are places in the US and Canada that have all the same advantages and are doing horrendous.
Canada's current PM got elected with the lowest popular vote in the nation's 150+ year history.
I've watched old video and films of former Canadian PMs Jean Chretien and Pierre Trudeau. Both men are geniuses. I've gone over their list of life accomplishments before becoming PM. Their accomplishments are bordering on heroic. I've compared them to the current PM of Canada. A guy who dropped out of the easiest engineering school in Canada. I`ve watched him commit silly dumb flub after stupid dumb quote. I've also examined the current PM's life accomplishments before becoming PM. I can't have nearly as much trust in the current PM as I have for previous PMs.
Same applies with the current Premier of Canada's most populous province. Bob Rae, Mike Harris and Bill Davis are just flat out better, smarter people than the last three Premiers.
It is mostly doom and gloom in Canada, however, it does have one shining bright spot. John Tory, the mayor of Canada`s biggest city is doing a great job and is very, very smart.
Over all, I can fully understand why people in Canada have lost trust in their governments.
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On December 21 2020 23:47 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2020 22:01 Slydie wrote:I found this outside look at the Covid responses in Europe interresting: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/20/europe/europe-covid-restrictions/index.htmlThere is a special focus on Finland and Norway here, trying to explain why the 2 countries have done so well, seemingly with more relaxed measures than other countries. There is no one simple reason, but being situated in the corners of Europe, being sparsely populated, having fewer large cities and competent goverments people trust seems most important to me. The competent governments that people trust is the huge one. There are places in the US and Canada that have all the same advantages and are doing horrendous.
I have to say I compeletly agree. As a Norwegian living in Spain, I think the mutual distrust between the population and authorities is a major cultural difference.
For Norway, a strong sign of the success is that the doctor, researcher and lawyer Espen Rostrup Nakstad who became the face and voice of the healthcare department during the first part of the pandemic was rewarded "name of the year".
In general, I think it is better the fighting this virus is about politics. There should be debate, but among people who know what they are doing, not politicians who want to score easy goals on their opponents.
It is mentioned in the CNN article how Denmark recently failed to keep the country united during the mink crisis. Spain is obviously doing terribly, as the pandemic has eagerly been used as a weapon in both regional and left/right political conflicts, with disasterous results.
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New strain means that I can't visit family over Christmas and vice versa. There are family I haven't seen for a year now. Some newborns I have seen only in videos and pictures. Could be worse I guess.
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On December 21 2020 23:47 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2020 22:01 Slydie wrote:I found this outside look at the Covid responses in Europe interresting: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/20/europe/europe-covid-restrictions/index.htmlThere is a special focus on Finland and Norway here, trying to explain why the 2 countries have done so well, seemingly with more relaxed measures than other countries. There is no one simple reason, but being situated in the corners of Europe, being sparsely populated, having fewer large cities and competent goverments people trust seems most important to me. The competent governments that people trust is the huge one. There are places in the US and Canada that have all the same advantages and are doing horrendous.
Perhaps, or perhaps Norwegian ex pats in the US and Canada are also doing quite well.
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On December 22 2020 03:43 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On December 22 2020 03:35 cLutZ wrote:On December 21 2020 23:47 JimmiC wrote:On December 21 2020 22:01 Slydie wrote:I found this outside look at the Covid responses in Europe interresting: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/20/europe/europe-covid-restrictions/index.htmlThere is a special focus on Finland and Norway here, trying to explain why the 2 countries have done so well, seemingly with more relaxed measures than other countries. There is no one simple reason, but being situated in the corners of Europe, being sparsely populated, having fewer large cities and competent goverments people trust seems most important to me. The competent governments that people trust is the huge one. There are places in the US and Canada that have all the same advantages and are doing horrendous. Perhaps, or perhaps Norwegian ex pats in the US and Canada are also doing quite well. What you base that presumption on?
How Scandanavian people in America do well on most metrics, and are often quite different from even other white groups. TBH, people doing inter-country comparisons should have the BOP put on them to prove they are comparing like with like demographically.
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On December 22 2020 04:13 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On December 22 2020 03:49 cLutZ wrote:On December 22 2020 03:43 JimmiC wrote:On December 22 2020 03:35 cLutZ wrote:On December 21 2020 23:47 JimmiC wrote:On December 21 2020 22:01 Slydie wrote:I found this outside look at the Covid responses in Europe interresting: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/20/europe/europe-covid-restrictions/index.htmlThere is a special focus on Finland and Norway here, trying to explain why the 2 countries have done so well, seemingly with more relaxed measures than other countries. There is no one simple reason, but being situated in the corners of Europe, being sparsely populated, having fewer large cities and competent goverments people trust seems most important to me. The competent governments that people trust is the huge one. There are places in the US and Canada that have all the same advantages and are doing horrendous. Perhaps, or perhaps Norwegian ex pats in the US and Canada are also doing quite well. What you base that presumption on? How Scandanavian people in America do well on most metrics, and are often quite different from even other white groups. TBH, people doing inter-country comparisons should have the BOP put on them to prove they are comparing like with like demographically. So it is your presumption that a bigger factor is nationhood? Because it can't be "Scandinavian" as that would require the Swedes to also be out preforming, which they are not. Also, Norway is not only of ethnic Scandinavians and the other ethnic groups are also preforming better than in the poorly run countries. This is a bad presumption, I guess to try to put blame away from the governments doing a poor job by blaming genetics I guess. But any attempts at actually proving that assumption have come up empty. Which is not surprising when we have a global pandemic and we can look at different ethnicities in different situations.
Sweden also famously has accepted large swaths of refugees recently who are chronically unemployed because of their language barriers. Having such neighborhoods appears to be one of the reasons areas cannot get R0<.1 even when people are trying to shelter at home/lockdown/etc. Again, you are making the extraordinary claim.
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EPT
