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Who said, Russia or Trump has to make those vaccinations mandatory?
Just saying: "We have a vaccine, we can deploy it" is great for:
- big egos
- nationalistic bullshit
- stock markets (hey, they jump up by 3% whenever someone said that his rat was not getting covid after drinking his orange juice...)
- to shut down whoever wants to impose any sort of restrictions, be it social or economic restrictions ("we don't have to be careful anymore, we have a vaccine") -> This is all Trumps base wants. They don't want to "solve" covid, they don't want to change their behavior, they don't want a vaccine. They just want to continue their thing and shut down anyone who opposes them.
Also all those things would work greatly for his campaign.
And if he can't get it, he will play this card nonetheless, because then again he can claim he would have solved it but the others hindered him... This is pretty much like him going after the FED for years.
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On August 03 2020 05:50 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2020 05:43 GoTuNk! wrote:
I don't even understand what he is saying.
Kwark are you advocating for compulsory vaccination for covid? Or just saying Trump's base would be against it ? (I would agree with that) mahrgell mentioned Russia is planning to roll out a vaccine soon, using their people as test subjects. And since Russia is effectively a totalitarian state they can vaccinate people against their will as part of a test. And that Trump might want to beat Russia to deployment for his ego, no matter how unsafe it is. Kwark then responds there is very little overlap between the people who support Trump and the people who would be ok with the Government forcing potentially unsafe vaccines on them.
Russian is not a totalitarian state. That's pure nonsense.
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Honestly how much Longer will Covid-19 last?
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On August 03 2020 08:25 soul55555 wrote:
Honestly how much Longer will Covid-19 last?
Probably about another year, if historical pandemics are anything to go by. Could be longer, hard to imagine shorter.
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On August 03 2020 05:53 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2020 05:13 cLutZ wrote:On August 03 2020 02:02 KwarK wrote:
The overlap between Trump’s most rabid fanbase who will still support him after all the shit so far and supporters of mandatory trial vaccines rolled out on the population (and particularly the elderly) is likely to be low. The people who would support that kind of vaccine program aren’t voting for him anyway. It’s not politically sound to do. Much more sound would be to declare the vaccine a success and coronavirus solved right before the election, whether or not anyone has actually been vaccinated. With Fox News acting as state media and whitehouse control over the info on cases/deaths he can have a victory lap without a victory. This is just bizarre conspiratorial thinking. Not least because it ascribes some mystical power to Fox News which is like 2% of the US news economy. What % of the population does not believe Covid is real or a threat? Because that is Fox's market share
Some nonzero percentage of people believe vaccines cause autism and the earth is flat despite there being no major news organization promoting that view.
I don't watch any cable news because I'm not in need of that sort of low effort content. I'm sure the networks editorial stance is not that C19 is a hoax, although they probably are less hair on fire than the rest of media, which is an editorial stance that is easily defensible.
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"I don't watch cable news"
>Makes repeated confident assertions about the content of cable news
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I read enough coverage of what people say Fox News is saying to have a fairly accurate picture.
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On August 03 2020 09:26 cLutZ wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2020 05:53 Gorsameth wrote:On August 03 2020 05:13 cLutZ wrote:On August 03 2020 02:02 KwarK wrote:
The overlap between Trump’s most rabid fanbase who will still support him after all the shit so far and supporters of mandatory trial vaccines rolled out on the population (and particularly the elderly) is likely to be low. The people who would support that kind of vaccine program aren’t voting for him anyway. It’s not politically sound to do. Much more sound would be to declare the vaccine a success and coronavirus solved right before the election, whether or not anyone has actually been vaccinated. With Fox News acting as state media and whitehouse control over the info on cases/deaths he can have a victory lap without a victory. This is just bizarre conspiratorial thinking. Not least because it ascribes some mystical power to Fox News which is like 2% of the US news economy. What % of the population does not believe Covid is real or a threat? Because that is Fox's market share Some nonzero percentage of people believe vaccines cause autism and the earth is flat despite there being no major news organization promoting that view. I don't watch any cable news because I'm not in need of that sort of low effort content. I'm sure the networks editorial stance is not that C19 is a hoax, although they probably are less hair on fire than the rest of media, which is an editorial stance that is easily defensible.
I wonder if they think it causes autism if it's produced via plants... I mean they eat plants...
Here is what I'm getting at: https://www.medicago.com/en/covid-19-programs/
It's even vegan. :D
As for the premature rollout.I don't think that's possible with the way the Phases are designed. There are usually 4 phases after pre-clinical trials. The Pre-clinical trials are mostly done on animals to see if a response happens (immunity + T-cell immunity). Phase 1 is basically very healthy people and a very small group (18 - 50 years of age). Phase 2 is a bigger group and they allow a higher sealing of age . Phase 3 is basically a really big group with every strate possible if they can (20k-50k ... if not more people).
Phase 4 is post marketing. One thing that pharmaceutical companies do not want to face or ANY government who actually cares about their people is the possibility of crazy side effects due to the vaccine. Imagine they deploy it at large and 80% of the population has long lasting problems. From what I gathered, most companies are doing an accelerate research and clinical trials meaning they are combining phases 2 and 3.
If you want a summary of one of the most up to date list of vaccines and where they are at right now, you can go on the WHO website or if you want something more comprehensive go here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Anyways, pharmaceutical companies can produce at a certain rhythm. If somebody says I will have 1 billion vaccine deployed, it probably means they will produce 1billion/12 months = +/- 83 million vaccines per month. Notice that some vaccines requires getting 2 dosses depending on the person receiving the vaccine. Elderly people for example do not generate an immune response as quickly as young people (on average) which means they potentially need to receive 2 dosses. The company with the vegan vaccine said they can produce 10 million vaccines per month based on the H1N1 vaccine deployment they made.
Now that is said,the big question is, who will receive the vaccine first? Do governments have the infrastructure to deploy the vaccine at large to everybody efficiently? This will be, I think the most controversial part of this whole covid thing. I am glad I do not have to make any decision regarding that because politicians would hate me.
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Assuming no drug companies cut any major corners (or any major hiccups in testing), when is the earliest the first large batch of vaccine will hit the general public?
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On August 03 2020 14:03 kidcrash wrote:
Assuming no drug companies cut any major corners (or any major hiccups in testing), when is the earliest the first large batch of vaccine will hit the general public?
My guess is Q2 next year. Not sure how rollout will be staged exactly, because while a country can order 10 million doses or whatever, they probably get 100 shipments of 100k or something like that over the course of several months. You can start relaxing regulations as immunization happens(+ whatever time it takes for people to generate anti-bodies), and I think once something like 70-80% of the population gets immunized, life kinda goes back to normal.
Not exactly how you do a public rollout. There's obviously going to be kicking and screaming and hysterics from people who want to be in the first batch(and get denied), as well as people who get it and immediately partake in risky activities. In most countries the wealthy cut the line and get a private shot from wherever on the first day, but for the masses I think age based would be good.
A strategy like school vaccinations, and then everybody 60+, slowly rolling down would be good IMO.
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So BBC is claiming that Iran has been doctoring its covid related numbers, based on some sort of anonymous source which send the data to them: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-53598965
EDIT: Real death numbers is supposedly close to 42 000 in Iran.
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On August 03 2020 14:30 Amui wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2020 14:03 kidcrash wrote:
Assuming no drug companies cut any major corners (or any major hiccups in testing), when is the earliest the first large batch of vaccine will hit the general public? My guess is Q2 next year. Not sure how rollout will be staged exactly, because while a country can order 10 million doses or whatever, they probably get 100 shipments of 100k or something like that over the course of several months. You can start relaxing regulations as immunization happens(+ whatever time it takes for people to generate anti-bodies), and I think once something like 70-80% of the population gets immunized, life kinda goes back to normal. Not exactly how you do a public rollout. There's obviously going to be kicking and screaming and hysterics from people who want to be in the first batch(and get denied), as well as people who get it and immediately partake in risky activities. In most countries the wealthy cut the line and get a private shot from wherever on the first day, but for the masses I think age based would be good. A strategy like school vaccinations, and then everybody 60+, slowly rolling down would be good IMO.
Wouldn't the at risk group (50+ years and older) be priority here?
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COVID new case count dropped over 25% this weekend. That's good news but it seems a bit fishy..
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I'm not sure about Canada, but at least here in Germany "nobody" is working on the weekends!
There is "group" of people that take all the information from the "local" health organizations to have the most up to date data every day and they release how many institutions have updated their numbers:
Friday: 85% updated
Saturday: 33% updated
Sunday: 26% updated
> https://twitter.com/risklayer
So we already know that we can't take numbers for granted that get released outside the work week!
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yeah weekends are consistently under-reported, which makes sense. While healthcare workers keep going during the weekend, administrative staff do so less.
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United States43262 Posts
It’s underreported anyway because they’re not measuring excess deaths, just positive tested deaths. In ten years or so we’ll have a better idea of the total death toll based on statistical analysis.
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On August 03 2020 08:25 soul55555 wrote:
Honestly how much Longer will Covid-19 last?
Depends on whether we can vaccinate against it or not. There are vaccines currently undergoing trials, in Australia the UK and one other place I can't remember I think Canada.
That's going to take months. It's already been a month since I first read about vaccine trials.
If the vaccines prove effective it will take more months for them to start being produced. Longer if the countries start bickering over rights and who can develop it, which is definitely going to happen.
Once produced it will take several months longer to distribute it to enough people that it stops being a pandemic.
My best guess? A year minimum. And Fauci said just last week that because the virus is so contagious, it will probably never actually go away. It will just be infecting smaller and smaller groups of people.
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On August 03 2020 22:36 KwarK wrote:
It’s underreported anyway because they’re not measuring excess deaths, just positive tested deaths. In ten years or so we’ll have a better idea of the total death toll based on statistical analysis.
Given the organ damage that Covid does, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see 5 and 10 year mortality rates for Covid survivors jump by a significant amount relative to their age group. That number could even end up higher than those who pass away immediately from Covid related symptoms.
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The plateau in reported infection numbers (not just over the weekend but with week-on-week data) seems very much out of sync with the rest of the data and the increasingly alarmed messaging coming from the CDC and from other health officials, even within Trump's inner circle. There's a lot more human firewood yet to be burned through in the US before herd immunity.
The frightening thing about the numbers so far is that as bad as it's been, this is probably with less than 10% of the entire population getting the virus. There's a lot of room for things to get a lot worse, and we're all just being told to pretend like everything is normal, go back to school in the fall, so on and so forth. I'm glad I get to work 95% remote under the current conditions, but I know too many people are operating under a "you don't come to work, you don't eat" ultimatum. We're in desperate need of coordinated action, and not just of the "more stimulus" variety.
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EPT
