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On May 15 2020 15:10 Slydie wrote: " I have some serious doubts about the "medical" effects of buying a living Racoon.".
Hahaha, you don't say? Traditional medicine, acupuncture, reiki, kung fu, feng shui, ear candling, cupping, horoscopes, homeapathy. It's incredible how much nonsense we can come up with (and fail to get rid of).
Meanwhile, casualties and infections are going down so quickly over here that people aren't really worried anymore. I see more and more videos advocating banning only indoor events with lots of people, like churches, conventions, public transport and large work spaces. There are a few mentions of 'a second wave' here and there, but the general consensus seems to be that it'll be ok as long as we don't open up too quickly and completely ditch all measures.
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But consider the following:
You buy a racoon. The racoon bites and scratches your face. You no longer touch your face because it hurts. Thus, you are far less likely to contract corona.
And from what i can tell, that idea that "It is basically over" is really dangerous. If you look at the timelines, the biggest dips in infections were not necessarily when governments issued shutdowns, but when people took this more seriously and care about isolating themselves.
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Seeker
Where dat snitch at?37024 Posts
I’m seeing a lot of posts with no sources backing up their claims. Please remember to adhere to the moderation rules and guidelines. Mod actions will be handed out if these infractions keep getting repeated.
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On May 15 2020 19:01 aseq wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2020 15:10 Slydie wrote: " I have some serious doubts about the "medical" effects of buying a living Racoon.". Hahaha, you don't say? Traditional medicine, acupuncture, reiki, kung fu, feng shui, ear candling, cupping, horoscopes, homeapathy. It's incredible how much nonsense we can come up with (and fail to get rid of). Meanwhile, casualties and infections are going down so quickly over here that people aren't really worried anymore. I see more and more videos advocating banning only indoor events with lots of people, like churches, conventions, public transport and large work spaces. There are a few mentions of 'a second wave' here and there, but the general consensus seems to be that it'll be ok as long as we don't open up too quickly and completely ditch all measures.
Why is Kung Fu in that list, lol?
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On May 15 2020 19:01 aseq wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2020 15:10 Slydie wrote: " I have some serious doubts about the "medical" effects of buying a living Racoon.". Hahaha, you don't say? Traditional medicine, acupuncture, reiki, kung fu, feng shui, ear candling, cupping, horoscopes, homeapathy. It's incredible how much nonsense we can come up with (and fail to get rid of). Meanwhile, casualties and infections are going down so quickly over here that people aren't really worried anymore. I see more and more videos advocating banning only indoor events with lots of people, like churches, conventions, public transport and large work spaces. There are a few mentions of 'a second wave' here and there, but the general consensus seems to be that it'll be ok as long as we don't open up too quickly and completely ditch all measures.
There's something weird about the data from the NL. How do you have only 52% more cases than PT but 374% more deaths? We're both between 200-300 new cases but we're getting 6-10 deaths and you're in the 50s. Might it be undertesting? I don't think we're underreporting deaths.
Looking at general mortality, NL has a high spike above the trend and Portugal has basically no visible excess death: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ (z-scores by country). And yet, everyone here is still super worried and you guys seem to be relaxing. What gives? Do we culturally just care more about grandma?
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United States42691 Posts
On May 15 2020 15:10 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2020 06:11 Mohdoo wrote:On May 15 2020 06:07 opterown wrote:On May 15 2020 05:04 LegalLord wrote:On May 15 2020 04:56 SC-Shield wrote:On May 15 2020 02:33 LegalLord wrote:On May 15 2020 02:11 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On May 14 2020 16:50 Slydie wrote:Sorry for not continuing within the subject, but this should be interresting. The first wave of a major immunity study in Spain just concluded. Here is a map with persentages of the population with immunty. Over all, 5% of the Spanish population has immuity, but there are huge differences between the provinces, ranging from 1,4 to 14,2%. ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/e5gs3bu.png) I have to say I find it disturbing that even the large country with both most cases and deaths per capita is still nowhere close to herd immunity. How do we beat this? Is it even possible without a vaccine? Source in Spanish https://www.lavozdegalicia.es/noticia/sociedad/2020/05/13/solo-5-poblacion-espanola-inmunizada-contra-coronavirus/00031589390951045212905.htm This virus is just weird in general. OK, we have new data. Way fewer people than expected have antibodies. Should mean the virus is much less contagious. That also means it's more dangerous than expected (more deaths per infected). WHO now says people with the disease have symptoms. Makes sense if there are much fewer infected that there were never really any asymptomatic infections then. But why did some places just explode in the beginning? Clearly the virus spread with just a few people traveling and infecting a new region. If the rate of transmission was low you would expect a much slower (still exponential but much slower) spread. That alone should have made it much easier for healthcare and the government to deal with it. But many places in the world basically got overrun. And why is Sweden doing "OK" at the moment with noticeable (but slow) improvement on all indicators. Our strategy haven't really changed at all since we implemented it, if anything people are more relaxed now. If social distancing alone can cut down the transmission rate to below 1 how on earth did this shit just blow up other regions? There is at least one piece of the puzzle still missing. The virus seems to be extremely infectious. Until the social distancing measures took root, the confirmed case rates grew faster than even the other famous fast-growth pandemics like swine flu. The spread just isn't 100x faster than that, as some of those lowest-quality initial studies started to suggest. The death rate is almost certainly at least in the 1% range. Look at the hardest hit cities, look at closed systems like the Diamond Princess; you will have a hard time landing on a number lower than that. Only wishful thinking can put you at flu-level death rates. I'm not sure Sweden is doing all that well per se. It doesn't look like it's exponentially running out of control, but from the graphs I see it certainly doesn't seem to be leveling out. My guess is just that Sweden was better equipped to handle this, and as such has done merely relatively poorly at reducing the disease by virtue of the strategy. I'm sure some level of self-imposed social distancing has done a lot to help reduce the spread as well. If, by the end of this (1.5-2 years out), there are 100k or so dead Swedes, and a fraction of that in Finns/Norwegians, we will know that the strategy backfired pretty hard. If it's more like 10k, it probably worked out better than the critics would suggest. Probably not a strategy that could be effectively replicated elsewhere, though. Even more infectious than Spanish flu? If yes, please provide statistics or link. Don't think so. A quick look around suggests that Spanish flu spread much more aggressively and followed a global exponential curve for far longer. Source is this video, about 4 minutes in. Looking against current coronavirus spread rates, they're not even close to Spanish flu. I doubt they had the kind of worldwide physical distancing response 100 years ago than what we are doing now. R0 for the Spanish flu is about 2, the COVID-19 is anywhere between 2 and 6. Reff, however, is the spread once you have measures in place - generally below 1 for COVID-19 if you're doing it right. Certainly adds to the theory that physical contact is basically guaranteed to transmit whereas aerosol transmission is very low. Cotton masks are good at filtering droplets and less good at aerosol, so it makes sense that we are seeing everything drop now that everyone is paranoid. Still doesn't quite explain Florida....I guess we'll see what happens this summer. Under normal conditions, droplets only travel about 1 meter though the air. As you said, physical contact might be the most important way for this virus to spread, so if you are infected and touch your mask and is not extremely careful when handeling it, any benefit can be nullified. Some research has shown that 50% wear their masks badly. The experts advocating the strongest for widespread public facemask use tend to be Chinese. Elsewhere, the expert opinions and recommendations are mixed, and the WHO does NOT recommend except for people treating covid patients and in another place for people with sympthoms. Guess who the no.1 facemask producer in the world is? The same Chinese experts did not stop the practice of selling living wild animals in the middle of big cities after the Sars outbreak, and even after the Corona outbreak, it is still allowed for "medical" perposes. I have some serious doubts about the "medical" effects of buying a living Racoon. Where were the Chinese experts when they should have had this banned this practice years ago? I am not saying the Chinese facilitated the outbreak on purpose, but they clearly weighed dubious cultural and medical traditions above preventing a potential future pandemic. Why are they suddently so concerned with the World's health now? Also, if the economy is struggeling and you have the chance of skyrocketing the demand for a product you are the world leader producer of, it would be foolish not to jump on the opportunity. The opinions of Chinese experts should be taken with a big grain of salt! edited.
This is a very weird theory.
The reason the Chinese virologists didn’t ban wet markets is probably not that they were in the pay of big facemask and saw a pandemic as an opportunity to convince everyone that facemasks reduce the spread. It’s probably because, until the pandemic, nobody cared what they were saying. Virologists have less influence on political culture than you imagine.
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Worldometers has some updated numbers using New York's data as a baseline(based on 15108 people).
Some takeaways - ~20% of NY has had the virus so far, an estimated IFR of 1.4%, and based on excess deaths, 0.28%(1/358) of the population has passed away from corona in ~3 months. An estimated 90% of cases were never diagnosed.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
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I couldn't enter shop today because I didn't have a mask (I forgot it). Harsh stuff, hopefully masks are taken down soon.
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On May 16 2020 05:59 SC-Shield wrote:
I couldn't enter shop today because I didn't have a mask (I forgot it). Harsh stuff, hopefully masks are taken down soon.
Yeah, always blame the rules!
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On May 16 2020 05:59 SC-Shield wrote:
I couldn't enter shop today because I didn't have a mask (I forgot it). Harsh stuff, hopefully masks are taken down soon.
Maybe the better answer would be to check you have your mask when you go out ? I mean, we take our keys and wallet when leaving home, and are not advocating for leaving all doors open or asking shops to do credit because it's inconvenient to take those.
It's not a hard thing to do.
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On May 16 2020 05:59 SC-Shield wrote:
I couldn't enter shop today because I didn't have a mask (I forgot it). Harsh stuff, hopefully masks are taken down soon.
so harsh!!!!
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Mask requirements are going to be with us for a long period compared to actual stay at home and don’t have visitors regulations.
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Requiring a mask is a small inconvenience if you have to go about during the midst of a pandemic. My mom made me some very comfortable cloth masks. My work provided me a bunch of N95s but those were way too tight and uncomfortable (even though they’re exponentially safer to use).
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On May 15 2020 21:26 warding wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2020 19:01 aseq wrote:On May 15 2020 15:10 Slydie wrote: " I have some serious doubts about the "medical" effects of buying a living Racoon.". Hahaha, you don't say? Traditional medicine, acupuncture, reiki, kung fu, feng shui, ear candling, cupping, horoscopes, homeapathy. It's incredible how much nonsense we can come up with (and fail to get rid of). Meanwhile, casualties and infections are going down so quickly over here that people aren't really worried anymore. I see more and more videos advocating banning only indoor events with lots of people, like churches, conventions, public transport and large work spaces. There are a few mentions of 'a second wave' here and there, but the general consensus seems to be that it'll be ok as long as we don't open up too quickly and completely ditch all measures. There's something weird about the data from the NL. How do you have only 52% more cases than PT but 374% more deaths? We're both between 200-300 new cases but we're getting 6-10 deaths and you're in the 50s. Might it be undertesting? I don't think we're underreporting deaths. Looking at general mortality, NL has a high spike above the trend and Portugal has basically no visible excess death: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ (z-scores by country). And yet, everyone here is still super worried and you guys seem to be relaxing. What gives? Do we culturally just care more about grandma?
Portugal is doing very well when compared to other countries in europe which is kinda puzzling.And yes people in southern europe probably care more about elderly people in general.
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On May 16 2020 06:43 TT1 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2020 05:59 SC-Shield wrote:
I couldn't enter shop today because I didn't have a mask (I forgot it). Harsh stuff, hopefully masks are taken down soon. so harsh!!!!
Please don't shitpost. People forget and that shop wasn't that close. If it was 5 minutes away, I'd not even complain.
Also, we got only 37 cases today, so I think with or without masks, there's not much difference nowadays. Bulgaria is doing super well when compared to other EU countries. Maybe when we were at peak with like 90 cases, yeah, then masks are needed.
Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Bulgaria#Cases
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On May 16 2020 22:58 SC-Shield wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2020 06:43 TT1 wrote:On May 16 2020 05:59 SC-Shield wrote:
I couldn't enter shop today because I didn't have a mask (I forgot it). Harsh stuff, hopefully masks are taken down soon. so harsh!!!! Please don't shitpost. People forget and that shop wasn't that close. If it was 5 minutes away, I'd not even complain. Also, we got only 37 cases today, so I think with or without masks, there's not much difference nowadays. Bulgaria is doing super well when compared to other EU countries. Maybe when we were at peak with like 90 cases, yeah, then masks are needed. Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Bulgaria#Cases
The mandatory masks might very well be why you're doing so well so I dont think it's harsh the shop refuse to serve anyone without one. On a local scale just one without a mask might seem trivial, but on a macro scale one easily becomes two which become four....
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It is inconvenient but necessary to require masks to keep the cases low. The virus is highly contagious and can have a 3-week incubation period. You may have it without knowing by being an asymptomatic carrier.
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abcnews.go.com
I posted something about this last week and people said "We don't know if it's related yet." Well the data is in. The rate of infection has been steadily increasing ever since the Texas Governor reopened the state.
Texas has seen a steady rise in novel coronavirus cases and fatalities since reopening just over two weeks ago.
There are now 45,198 confirmed cases of COVID-19, the illness caused by the virus, according to the Texas Department of State Health Services. That is an increase of 1,347 cases from Thursday to Friday. The new numbers have not yet been recorded for Saturday...
The state also experienced its highest and second-highest daily death toll just a day apart. On Thursday, 58 deaths were recorded in 24 hours and Friday that number dropped only slightly to 56, according to the health department. The total number of fatalities is at 1,272.
The fact that the rate is steadily increasing since the order, also suggests that despite people in other states (Namely mine, grrrr) violating the order and going out anyway, having the order in place DOES keep more people safe than just a straight up reopening.
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Tennessee opening theaters, water parks and theme parks next week LOL
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I definitely dont agree with that lol.
Even in a non-pandemic situation water/theme parks always present a high-risk chance exposure to any sickness. Depending what their measures are(if any)? I doubt they would be able to enforce them if there were any worth while doing.
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EPT
