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That seems very "optimistic" to me... Measels and stuff are still a thing and there are GOOOD vaccination against it. Tons of others so called "dead" illnesses that are supposed to be estinct reapear due to moron antivaxxers... Bringing something to extinction that spreads like a flu? Yeah, good luck with that.
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On May 15 2020 02:33 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2020 02:11 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On May 14 2020 16:50 Slydie wrote:Sorry for not continuing within the subject, but this should be interresting. The first wave of a major immunity study in Spain just concluded. Here is a map with persentages of the population with immunty. Over all, 5% of the Spanish population has immuity, but there are huge differences between the provinces, ranging from 1,4 to 14,2%. ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/e5gs3bu.png) I have to say I find it disturbing that even the large country with both most cases and deaths per capita is still nowhere close to herd immunity. How do we beat this? Is it even possible without a vaccine? Source in Spanish https://www.lavozdegalicia.es/noticia/sociedad/2020/05/13/solo-5-poblacion-espanola-inmunizada-contra-coronavirus/00031589390951045212905.htm This virus is just weird in general. OK, we have new data. Way fewer people than expected have antibodies. Should mean the virus is much less contagious. That also means it's more dangerous than expected (more deaths per infected). WHO now says people with the disease have symptoms. Makes sense if there are much fewer infected that there were never really any asymptomatic infections then. But why did some places just explode in the beginning? Clearly the virus spread with just a few people traveling and infecting a new region. If the rate of transmission was low you would expect a much slower (still exponential but much slower) spread. That alone should have made it much easier for healthcare and the government to deal with it. But many places in the world basically got overrun. And why is Sweden doing "OK" at the moment with noticeable (but slow) improvement on all indicators. Our strategy haven't really changed at all since we implemented it, if anything people are more relaxed now. If social distancing alone can cut down the transmission rate to below 1 how on earth did this shit just blow up other regions? There is at least one piece of the puzzle still missing. The virus seems to be extremely infectious. Until the social distancing measures took root, the confirmed case rates grew faster than even the other famous fast-growth pandemics like swine flu. The spread just isn't 100x faster than that, as some of those lowest-quality initial studies started to suggest. The death rate is almost certainly at least in the 1% range. Look at the hardest hit cities, look at closed systems like the Diamond Princess; you will have a hard time landing on a number lower than that. Only wishful thinking can put you at flu-level death rates. I'm not sure Sweden is doing all that well per se. It doesn't look like it's exponentially running out of control, but from the graphs I see it certainly doesn't seem to be leveling out. My guess is just that Sweden was better equipped to handle this, and as such has done merely relatively poorly at reducing the disease by virtue of the strategy. I'm sure some level of self-imposed social distancing has done a lot to help reduce the spread as well. If, by the end of this (1.5-2 years out), there are 100k or so dead Swedes, and a fraction of that in Finns/Norwegians, we will know that the strategy backfired pretty hard. If it's more like 10k, it probably worked out better than the critics would suggest. Probably not a strategy that could be effectively replicated elsewhere, though.
Even more infectious than Spanish flu? If yes, please provide statistics or link.
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On May 15 2020 04:00 Velr wrote:
That seems very "optimistic" to me... Measels and stuff are still a thing and there are GOOOD vaccination against it. Tons of others so called "dead" illnesses that are supposed to be estinct reapear due to moron antivaxxers... Bringing something to extinction that spreads like a flu? Yeah, good luck with that.
Taiwan has had 6 days without a single new case now. China is down to 104 active cases. It is also pretty much gone from New Zealand. The rebound so many are afraid of are nowhere to be found, once the curves break, it just keeps going down.
Measles is actually in different league than Corona as far as infectiousness goes, but I guess I should differentiate between effectively extinct and actually extinct. The plague and leprosy are still around...
The global al "serious and critical" graph one Worldometers has been on the way down for a while now. Considering the delays from when people are infected until they get hospitalized and then recovered, I think it is pretty safe to say the virus is on the return.
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On May 15 2020 04:56 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2020 04:00 Velr wrote:
That seems very "optimistic" to me... Measels and stuff are still a thing and there are GOOOD vaccination against it. Tons of others so called "dead" illnesses that are supposed to be estinct reapear due to moron antivaxxers... Bringing something to extinction that spreads like a flu? Yeah, good luck with that. Taiwan has had 6 days without a single new case now. China is down to 104 active cases. It is also pretty much gone from New Zealand. The rebound so many are afraid of are nowhere to be found, once the curves break, it just keeps going down. Measles is actually in different league than Corona as far as infectiousness goes, but I guess I should differentiate between effectively extinct and actually extinct. The plague and leprosy are still around... The global al "serious and critical" graph one Worldometers has been on the way down for a while now. Considering the delays from when people are infected until they get hospitalized and then recovered, I think it is pretty safe to say the virus is on the return.
The virus is gone but only if borders are closed for a long time? Otherwise, I don't see this being true for long enough.
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
On May 15 2020 04:56 SC-Shield wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2020 02:33 LegalLord wrote:On May 15 2020 02:11 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On May 14 2020 16:50 Slydie wrote:Sorry for not continuing within the subject, but this should be interresting. The first wave of a major immunity study in Spain just concluded. Here is a map with persentages of the population with immunty. Over all, 5% of the Spanish population has immuity, but there are huge differences between the provinces, ranging from 1,4 to 14,2%. I have to say I find it disturbing that even the large country with both most cases and deaths per capita is still nowhere close to herd immunity. How do we beat this? Is it even possible without a vaccine? Source in Spanish https://www.lavozdegalicia.es/noticia/sociedad/2020/05/13/solo-5-poblacion-espanola-inmunizada-contra-coronavirus/00031589390951045212905.htm This virus is just weird in general. OK, we have new data. Way fewer people than expected have antibodies. Should mean the virus is much less contagious. That also means it's more dangerous than expected (more deaths per infected). WHO now says people with the disease have symptoms. Makes sense if there are much fewer infected that there were never really any asymptomatic infections then. But why did some places just explode in the beginning? Clearly the virus spread with just a few people traveling and infecting a new region. If the rate of transmission was low you would expect a much slower (still exponential but much slower) spread. That alone should have made it much easier for healthcare and the government to deal with it. But many places in the world basically got overrun. And why is Sweden doing "OK" at the moment with noticeable (but slow) improvement on all indicators. Our strategy haven't really changed at all since we implemented it, if anything people are more relaxed now. If social distancing alone can cut down the transmission rate to below 1 how on earth did this shit just blow up other regions? There is at least one piece of the puzzle still missing. The virus seems to be extremely infectious. Until the social distancing measures took root, the confirmed case rates grew faster than even the other famous fast-growth pandemics like swine flu. The spread just isn't 100x faster than that, as some of those lowest-quality initial studies started to suggest. The death rate is almost certainly at least in the 1% range. Look at the hardest hit cities, look at closed systems like the Diamond Princess; you will have a hard time landing on a number lower than that. Only wishful thinking can put you at flu-level death rates. I'm not sure Sweden is doing all that well per se. It doesn't look like it's exponentially running out of control, but from the graphs I see it certainly doesn't seem to be leveling out. My guess is just that Sweden was better equipped to handle this, and as such has done merely relatively poorly at reducing the disease by virtue of the strategy. I'm sure some level of self-imposed social distancing has done a lot to help reduce the spread as well. If, by the end of this (1.5-2 years out), there are 100k or so dead Swedes, and a fraction of that in Finns/Norwegians, we will know that the strategy backfired pretty hard. If it's more like 10k, it probably worked out better than the critics would suggest. Probably not a strategy that could be effectively replicated elsewhere, though. Even more infectious than Spanish flu? If yes, please provide statistics or link.
Don't think so. A quick look around suggests that Spanish flu spread much more aggressively and followed a global exponential curve for far longer.
Source is this video, about 4 minutes in. Looking against current coronavirus spread rates, they're not even close to Spanish flu.
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On May 15 2020 04:56 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2020 04:00 Velr wrote:
That seems very "optimistic" to me... Measels and stuff are still a thing and there are GOOOD vaccination against it. Tons of others so called "dead" illnesses that are supposed to be estinct reapear due to moron antivaxxers... Bringing something to extinction that spreads like a flu? Yeah, good luck with that. Taiwan has had 6 days without a single new case now. China is down to 104 active cases. It is also pretty much gone from New Zealand. The rebound so many are afraid of are nowhere to be found, once the curves break, it just keeps going down. Measles is actually in different league than Corona as far as infectiousness goes, but I guess I should differentiate between effectively extinct and actually extinct. The plague and leprosy are still around... The global al "serious and critical" graph one Worldometers has been on the way down for a while now. Considering the delays from when people are infected until they get hospitalized and then recovered, I think it is pretty safe to say the virus is on the return.
China just reported a resurgence of the virus in Wuhan and shut down Jilin, another multi-million people city.
This perfectly fits those handful of cases they report every day... Or maybe those are the lotto numbers they are reporting.
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On May 15 2020 05:04 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2020 04:56 SC-Shield wrote:On May 15 2020 02:33 LegalLord wrote:On May 15 2020 02:11 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On May 14 2020 16:50 Slydie wrote:Sorry for not continuing within the subject, but this should be interresting. The first wave of a major immunity study in Spain just concluded. Here is a map with persentages of the population with immunty. Over all, 5% of the Spanish population has immuity, but there are huge differences between the provinces, ranging from 1,4 to 14,2%. I have to say I find it disturbing that even the large country with both most cases and deaths per capita is still nowhere close to herd immunity. How do we beat this? Is it even possible without a vaccine? Source in Spanish https://www.lavozdegalicia.es/noticia/sociedad/2020/05/13/solo-5-poblacion-espanola-inmunizada-contra-coronavirus/00031589390951045212905.htm This virus is just weird in general. OK, we have new data. Way fewer people than expected have antibodies. Should mean the virus is much less contagious. That also means it's more dangerous than expected (more deaths per infected). WHO now says people with the disease have symptoms. Makes sense if there are much fewer infected that there were never really any asymptomatic infections then. But why did some places just explode in the beginning? Clearly the virus spread with just a few people traveling and infecting a new region. If the rate of transmission was low you would expect a much slower (still exponential but much slower) spread. That alone should have made it much easier for healthcare and the government to deal with it. But many places in the world basically got overrun. And why is Sweden doing "OK" at the moment with noticeable (but slow) improvement on all indicators. Our strategy haven't really changed at all since we implemented it, if anything people are more relaxed now. If social distancing alone can cut down the transmission rate to below 1 how on earth did this shit just blow up other regions? There is at least one piece of the puzzle still missing. The virus seems to be extremely infectious. Until the social distancing measures took root, the confirmed case rates grew faster than even the other famous fast-growth pandemics like swine flu. The spread just isn't 100x faster than that, as some of those lowest-quality initial studies started to suggest. The death rate is almost certainly at least in the 1% range. Look at the hardest hit cities, look at closed systems like the Diamond Princess; you will have a hard time landing on a number lower than that. Only wishful thinking can put you at flu-level death rates. I'm not sure Sweden is doing all that well per se. It doesn't look like it's exponentially running out of control, but from the graphs I see it certainly doesn't seem to be leveling out. My guess is just that Sweden was better equipped to handle this, and as such has done merely relatively poorly at reducing the disease by virtue of the strategy. I'm sure some level of self-imposed social distancing has done a lot to help reduce the spread as well. If, by the end of this (1.5-2 years out), there are 100k or so dead Swedes, and a fraction of that in Finns/Norwegians, we will know that the strategy backfired pretty hard. If it's more like 10k, it probably worked out better than the critics would suggest. Probably not a strategy that could be effectively replicated elsewhere, though. Even more infectious than Spanish flu? If yes, please provide statistics or link. Don't think so. A quick look around suggests that Spanish flu spread much more aggressively and followed a global exponential curve for far longer. Source is this video, about 4 minutes in. Looking against current coronavirus spread rates, they're not even close to Spanish flu.
The problem with discussing Spanish is that there were three waves. If we're only in the first wave of Corona and we head into a second wave like Spanish influenza then people are going to be talking very differently very quickly about Corona.
Is there any reason to believe we can stop the spread completely without a vaccine?
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opterown
Australia54784 Posts
On May 15 2020 05:04 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2020 04:56 SC-Shield wrote:On May 15 2020 02:33 LegalLord wrote:On May 15 2020 02:11 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On May 14 2020 16:50 Slydie wrote:Sorry for not continuing within the subject, but this should be interresting. The first wave of a major immunity study in Spain just concluded. Here is a map with persentages of the population with immunty. Over all, 5% of the Spanish population has immuity, but there are huge differences between the provinces, ranging from 1,4 to 14,2%. I have to say I find it disturbing that even the large country with both most cases and deaths per capita is still nowhere close to herd immunity. How do we beat this? Is it even possible without a vaccine? Source in Spanish https://www.lavozdegalicia.es/noticia/sociedad/2020/05/13/solo-5-poblacion-espanola-inmunizada-contra-coronavirus/00031589390951045212905.htm This virus is just weird in general. OK, we have new data. Way fewer people than expected have antibodies. Should mean the virus is much less contagious. That also means it's more dangerous than expected (more deaths per infected). WHO now says people with the disease have symptoms. Makes sense if there are much fewer infected that there were never really any asymptomatic infections then. But why did some places just explode in the beginning? Clearly the virus spread with just a few people traveling and infecting a new region. If the rate of transmission was low you would expect a much slower (still exponential but much slower) spread. That alone should have made it much easier for healthcare and the government to deal with it. But many places in the world basically got overrun. And why is Sweden doing "OK" at the moment with noticeable (but slow) improvement on all indicators. Our strategy haven't really changed at all since we implemented it, if anything people are more relaxed now. If social distancing alone can cut down the transmission rate to below 1 how on earth did this shit just blow up other regions? There is at least one piece of the puzzle still missing. The virus seems to be extremely infectious. Until the social distancing measures took root, the confirmed case rates grew faster than even the other famous fast-growth pandemics like swine flu. The spread just isn't 100x faster than that, as some of those lowest-quality initial studies started to suggest. The death rate is almost certainly at least in the 1% range. Look at the hardest hit cities, look at closed systems like the Diamond Princess; you will have a hard time landing on a number lower than that. Only wishful thinking can put you at flu-level death rates. I'm not sure Sweden is doing all that well per se. It doesn't look like it's exponentially running out of control, but from the graphs I see it certainly doesn't seem to be leveling out. My guess is just that Sweden was better equipped to handle this, and as such has done merely relatively poorly at reducing the disease by virtue of the strategy. I'm sure some level of self-imposed social distancing has done a lot to help reduce the spread as well. If, by the end of this (1.5-2 years out), there are 100k or so dead Swedes, and a fraction of that in Finns/Norwegians, we will know that the strategy backfired pretty hard. If it's more like 10k, it probably worked out better than the critics would suggest. Probably not a strategy that could be effectively replicated elsewhere, though. Even more infectious than Spanish flu? If yes, please provide statistics or link. Don't think so. A quick look around suggests that Spanish flu spread much more aggressively and followed a global exponential curve for far longer. Source is this video, about 4 minutes in. Looking against current coronavirus spread rates, they're not even close to Spanish flu.
I doubt they had the kind of worldwide physical distancing response 100 years ago than what we are doing now.
R0 for the Spanish flu is about 2, the COVID-19 is anywhere between 2 and 6. Reff, however, is the spread once you have measures in place - generally below 1 for COVID-19 if you're doing it right.
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On May 15 2020 06:07 opterown wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2020 05:04 LegalLord wrote:On May 15 2020 04:56 SC-Shield wrote:On May 15 2020 02:33 LegalLord wrote:On May 15 2020 02:11 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On May 14 2020 16:50 Slydie wrote:Sorry for not continuing within the subject, but this should be interresting. The first wave of a major immunity study in Spain just concluded. Here is a map with persentages of the population with immunty. Over all, 5% of the Spanish population has immuity, but there are huge differences between the provinces, ranging from 1,4 to 14,2%. I have to say I find it disturbing that even the large country with both most cases and deaths per capita is still nowhere close to herd immunity. How do we beat this? Is it even possible without a vaccine? Source in Spanish https://www.lavozdegalicia.es/noticia/sociedad/2020/05/13/solo-5-poblacion-espanola-inmunizada-contra-coronavirus/00031589390951045212905.htm This virus is just weird in general. OK, we have new data. Way fewer people than expected have antibodies. Should mean the virus is much less contagious. That also means it's more dangerous than expected (more deaths per infected). WHO now says people with the disease have symptoms. Makes sense if there are much fewer infected that there were never really any asymptomatic infections then. But why did some places just explode in the beginning? Clearly the virus spread with just a few people traveling and infecting a new region. If the rate of transmission was low you would expect a much slower (still exponential but much slower) spread. That alone should have made it much easier for healthcare and the government to deal with it. But many places in the world basically got overrun. And why is Sweden doing "OK" at the moment with noticeable (but slow) improvement on all indicators. Our strategy haven't really changed at all since we implemented it, if anything people are more relaxed now. If social distancing alone can cut down the transmission rate to below 1 how on earth did this shit just blow up other regions? There is at least one piece of the puzzle still missing. The virus seems to be extremely infectious. Until the social distancing measures took root, the confirmed case rates grew faster than even the other famous fast-growth pandemics like swine flu. The spread just isn't 100x faster than that, as some of those lowest-quality initial studies started to suggest. The death rate is almost certainly at least in the 1% range. Look at the hardest hit cities, look at closed systems like the Diamond Princess; you will have a hard time landing on a number lower than that. Only wishful thinking can put you at flu-level death rates. I'm not sure Sweden is doing all that well per se. It doesn't look like it's exponentially running out of control, but from the graphs I see it certainly doesn't seem to be leveling out. My guess is just that Sweden was better equipped to handle this, and as such has done merely relatively poorly at reducing the disease by virtue of the strategy. I'm sure some level of self-imposed social distancing has done a lot to help reduce the spread as well. If, by the end of this (1.5-2 years out), there are 100k or so dead Swedes, and a fraction of that in Finns/Norwegians, we will know that the strategy backfired pretty hard. If it's more like 10k, it probably worked out better than the critics would suggest. Probably not a strategy that could be effectively replicated elsewhere, though. Even more infectious than Spanish flu? If yes, please provide statistics or link. Don't think so. A quick look around suggests that Spanish flu spread much more aggressively and followed a global exponential curve for far longer. Source is this video, about 4 minutes in. Looking against current coronavirus spread rates, they're not even close to Spanish flu. I doubt they had the kind of worldwide physical distancing response 100 years ago than what we are doing now. R0 for the Spanish flu is about 2, the COVID-19 is anywhere between 2 and 6. Reff, however, is the spread once you have measures in place - generally below 1 for COVID-19 if you're doing it right.
Certainly adds to the theory that physical contact is basically guaranteed to transmit whereas aerosol transmission is very low. Cotton masks are good at filtering droplets and less good at aerosol, so it makes sense that we are seeing everything drop now that everyone is paranoid. Still doesn't quite explain Florida....I guess we'll see what happens this summer.
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Oregon allowed 23 counties to open for "phase 1". All the local facebook groups are just people trying to go to as many bars as possible and pretending covid is officially over. I'm still stuck inside forever for personal risk reasons, but I really hope infection doesn't spin out of control from this.
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On May 15 2020 07:03 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2020 06:56 Mohdoo wrote:
Oregon allowed 23 counties to open for "phase 1". All the local facebook groups are just people trying to go to as many bars as possible and pretending covid is officially over. I'm still stuck inside forever for personal risk reasons, but I really hope infection doesn't spin out of control from this. I feel you, being in the high risk group sucks. I find it especially strange in area's like Italy, Spain and NewYork city where even people outside of the high risk groups were dying that they also seem to not be taking the social distancing serious.
The cool thing is that since I never can go out to eat anymore, or do anything really, I am saving so much money that getting a bunch of luxury groceries delivered from Costco still means I'm coming out hundreds of dollars ahead. Buying tons of cooking equipment and other luxury items to make my house awesome. Just about got the whole house on Philips Hue bulbs, which is downright fucking amazing and a huge QOL improvement (get the ones that let you change the temperature of the as well as dim). As long as I have youtube workouts, a backyard, my dog and plenty of food, I can basically do this forever.
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On May 15 2020 07:23 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2020 07:03 JimmiC wrote:On May 15 2020 06:56 Mohdoo wrote:
Oregon allowed 23 counties to open for "phase 1". All the local facebook groups are just people trying to go to as many bars as possible and pretending covid is officially over. I'm still stuck inside forever for personal risk reasons, but I really hope infection doesn't spin out of control from this. I feel you, being in the high risk group sucks. I find it especially strange in area's like Italy, Spain and NewYork city where even people outside of the high risk groups were dying that they also seem to not be taking the social distancing serious. The cool thing is that since I never can go out to eat anymore, or do anything really, I am saving so much money that getting a bunch of luxury groceries delivered from Costco still means I'm coming out hundreds of dollars ahead. Buying tons of cooking equipment and other luxury items to make my house awesome. Just about got the whole house on Philips Hue bulbs, which is downright fucking amazing and a huge QOL improvement (get the ones that let you change the temperature of the as well as dim). As long as I have youtube workouts, a backyard, my dog and plenty of food, I can basically do this forever.
You're lucky, I was very frugal already and got a lot of stuff (gym, food, caffeine) free from work, which I don't have access to anymore as I WFH. I live in a 3 bed apt with 3 other people (one couple) in an area I would only ever live in due to proximity/cost to the office - previously I just spent most of my waking hours there M-F and went out and about on weekends. So now I am unfortunately spending more with a lower quality of life, living in an area I would never choose if I knew there would be many months of WFH - my company might keep WFH until the end of the year.
Plus the WFH is pretty detrimental to me due to the loss of structure and normal sleeping+working schedules.
I would love love love to go back to work, while still trying to keep sanitary and maintain social distancing. I guess it's a tragedy of the commons. At least I rediscovered starcraft and chess again to stay sane.
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On May 15 2020 04:56 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2020 04:00 Velr wrote:
That seems very "optimistic" to me... Measels and stuff are still a thing and there are GOOOD vaccination against it. Tons of others so called "dead" illnesses that are supposed to be estinct reapear due to moron antivaxxers... Bringing something to extinction that spreads like a flu? Yeah, good luck with that. Taiwan has had 6 days without a single new case now. China is down to 104 active cases. It is also pretty much gone from New Zealand. The rebound so many are afraid of are nowhere to be found, once the curves break, it just keeps going down. Measles is actually in different league than Corona as far as infectiousness goes, but I guess I should differentiate between effectively extinct and actually extinct. The plague and leprosy are still around... The global al "serious and critical" graph one Worldometers has been on the way down for a while now. Considering the delays from when people are infected until they get hospitalized and then recovered, I think it is pretty safe to say the virus is on the return.
It took one patient in south korea to infect 50others. They closed clubs and bars right after. It's just that those countries know what they're doing. Wouldn't bet on the US gov doing its job.
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The entirety of China is at 103 active cases? I’m an optimist but I call major bullshit. I hope I read that wrong. Hawaii alone is around 58 at the moment.
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
On May 15 2020 11:15 Emnjay808 wrote:
The entirety of China is at 103 active cases? I’m an optimist but I call major bullshit. I hope I read that wrong. Hawaii alone is around 58 at the moment.
With China, it honestly seems like they had a major outbreak, handled it with a heavy-handed lockdown, then one day they decided it was over and everything goes back to normal via edict. It's been discussed to death, but only a small handful of people around here seem to truly take the China data uncritically. And in a country like that, if the government is hiding death rates, it's very hard to have any observer know it to be so.
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On May 15 2020 06:11 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2020 06:07 opterown wrote:On May 15 2020 05:04 LegalLord wrote:On May 15 2020 04:56 SC-Shield wrote:On May 15 2020 02:33 LegalLord wrote:On May 15 2020 02:11 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On May 14 2020 16:50 Slydie wrote:Sorry for not continuing within the subject, but this should be interresting. The first wave of a major immunity study in Spain just concluded. Here is a map with persentages of the population with immunty. Over all, 5% of the Spanish population has immuity, but there are huge differences between the provinces, ranging from 1,4 to 14,2%. I have to say I find it disturbing that even the large country with both most cases and deaths per capita is still nowhere close to herd immunity. How do we beat this? Is it even possible without a vaccine? Source in Spanish https://www.lavozdegalicia.es/noticia/sociedad/2020/05/13/solo-5-poblacion-espanola-inmunizada-contra-coronavirus/00031589390951045212905.htm This virus is just weird in general. OK, we have new data. Way fewer people than expected have antibodies. Should mean the virus is much less contagious. That also means it's more dangerous than expected (more deaths per infected). WHO now says people with the disease have symptoms. Makes sense if there are much fewer infected that there were never really any asymptomatic infections then. But why did some places just explode in the beginning? Clearly the virus spread with just a few people traveling and infecting a new region. If the rate of transmission was low you would expect a much slower (still exponential but much slower) spread. That alone should have made it much easier for healthcare and the government to deal with it. But many places in the world basically got overrun. And why is Sweden doing "OK" at the moment with noticeable (but slow) improvement on all indicators. Our strategy haven't really changed at all since we implemented it, if anything people are more relaxed now. If social distancing alone can cut down the transmission rate to below 1 how on earth did this shit just blow up other regions? There is at least one piece of the puzzle still missing. The virus seems to be extremely infectious. Until the social distancing measures took root, the confirmed case rates grew faster than even the other famous fast-growth pandemics like swine flu. The spread just isn't 100x faster than that, as some of those lowest-quality initial studies started to suggest. The death rate is almost certainly at least in the 1% range. Look at the hardest hit cities, look at closed systems like the Diamond Princess; you will have a hard time landing on a number lower than that. Only wishful thinking can put you at flu-level death rates. I'm not sure Sweden is doing all that well per se. It doesn't look like it's exponentially running out of control, but from the graphs I see it certainly doesn't seem to be leveling out. My guess is just that Sweden was better equipped to handle this, and as such has done merely relatively poorly at reducing the disease by virtue of the strategy. I'm sure some level of self-imposed social distancing has done a lot to help reduce the spread as well. If, by the end of this (1.5-2 years out), there are 100k or so dead Swedes, and a fraction of that in Finns/Norwegians, we will know that the strategy backfired pretty hard. If it's more like 10k, it probably worked out better than the critics would suggest. Probably not a strategy that could be effectively replicated elsewhere, though. Even more infectious than Spanish flu? If yes, please provide statistics or link. Don't think so. A quick look around suggests that Spanish flu spread much more aggressively and followed a global exponential curve for far longer. Source is this video, about 4 minutes in. Looking against current coronavirus spread rates, they're not even close to Spanish flu. I doubt they had the kind of worldwide physical distancing response 100 years ago than what we are doing now. R0 for the Spanish flu is about 2, the COVID-19 is anywhere between 2 and 6. Reff, however, is the spread once you have measures in place - generally below 1 for COVID-19 if you're doing it right. Certainly adds to the theory that physical contact is basically guaranteed to transmit whereas aerosol transmission is very low. Cotton masks are good at filtering droplets and less good at aerosol, so it makes sense that we are seeing everything drop now that everyone is paranoid. Still doesn't quite explain Florida....I guess we'll see what happens this summer.
Under normal conditions, droplets only travel about 1 meter though the air. As you said, physical contact might be the most important way for this virus to spread, so if you are infected and touch your mask and is not extremely careful when handeling it, any benefit can be nullified. Some research has shown that 50% wear their masks badly.
The experts advocating the strongest for widespread public facemask use tend to be Chinese. Elsewhere, the expert opinions and recommendations are mixed, and the WHO does NOT recommend except for people treating covid patients and in another place for people with sympthoms. Guess who the no.1 facemask producer in the world is? The same Chinese experts did not stop the practice of selling living wild animals in the middle of big cities after the Sars outbreak, and even after the Corona outbreak, it is still allowed for "medical" perposes. I have some serious doubts about the "medical" effects of buying a living Racoon. Where were the Chinese experts when they should have had this banned this practice years ago?
I am not saying the Chinese facilitated the outbreak on purpose, but they clearly weighed dubious cultural and medical traditions above preventing a potential future pandemic. Why are they suddently so concerned with the World's health now?
Also, if the economy is struggeling and you have the chance of skyrocketing the demand for a product you are the world leader producer of, it would be foolish not to jump on the opportunity. The opinions of Chinese experts should be taken with a big grain of salt!
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Malls are going reopen soon here. News was surprising but certainly welcomed by me even though there is a big risk. 
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Gyms are implementing scheduled workout slots so u gotta book ahead. 45min-1hour workouts. This is extremely welcomed by me. There is risk to everything but you gotta calibrate eventually.
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EPT
